Aperture Academy Mafia School: Day 8 - [Redacted]

[Purpearljellyblob]

This makes Claire as a big lynch target.

Perhaps we should look at the possibility of Claire talking to the wrong people.

I think the odds of both the framer and the investigator targeting the same person is about 1:300 odds as you have mentioned previously.

Odds of investigator investigating Simone: 1:19 (20 people, minus himself)

Odds of framer framing Simone: 1:15 (20 people, assume 5 scums)

Odds of both of that investigating and framing at the same time (assuming no contact with each other): 1/19 x 1/15 = 1:285

If you think that the Sloane being killed in Day 1 is lucky, that is only 1:16 odds (22 at the start, assume 5 scums, and minus Bud = 16)

1:285 is just . I don't know who Andrew talked to via pm, he could have told someone else.

So Mary was initially right after all. The numbers suggest that a mole is highly possible. The fact that Cameron and Andrew were expelled meant that no one can vouch for Claire and whatever she says. I would like to think that is all part of the scum's plan to put the heat on Claire. But that isn't going to work on me. But if we look at who Claire talked to, we would naturally direct our attention to Allison and Adriano.

All I was saying was that I was in contact with you and Allison at the same time, but you were never involved in any of the investigations. Don't look too much into it. I'm saying the exact opposite that you are seeing, that you were NOT involved. You're way too tense for this early in the morning.

I didn't get all pissed off when you made the mistake on my voting, so don't fly off the handle about this. I'm not incriminating you. LISTEN EVERYBODY, ADRIANNO WAS NOT INVOLVED IN INVESTIGATIONS!!!! How's that?

Here it seems that Adriano has been given the all clear by Claire that Adriano might not be the mole. Now we are left with only one person.

Yes, I talked to you, and you said you were talking to the investigator. You asked me what I thought about Simone, and I said I thought she was scum and that's it.

Allison might not been involved in the decision making as to who to investigate, but by suggesting to Claire that Simone is scum, Allison can probably make an educated guess on the investigation that night and try the frame on Simone. If it fails, she will keep talking to Claire. If it works, the scum lives for another day. We might be looking at the scum framer at this very moment. Plus Claire did not give Allison the all clear.

Here are some info I got from both scum members during my investigations:

Shawna

Shawna believed in the existence of a framer and a godfather from the beginning.

She was 'suspicious' of Jeanie at the beginning.

She wanted to get rid of Andrew after she claimed SK to me.

She wanted to target badboy when we were talking about a SK target for her.

She did not want to kill Chuckie.

She seemed to have no problems with killing Brian.

In the survey she voted for: Andrew, Davey and Claire.

Burton Guster

Was suspicious of John Bender in the first interrogation.

Did mention a framer in the beginning as well (as very likely).

In the survey he voted for: Mary, Davey, Shawna.

Rereading the pms with the scum I could kick myself for not noticing their scummy behavior.

The conversation with Shawna makes me highly suspicious of Chuckie. Still.

We can infer a lot from Shawna and Burton's behavior. Shawna and Allison were suspicious of Jeanie. Shawna wanted a kill on Jeanie and was suspicious of her as well. Allison has been pushing/voted for Jeanie for Days 6 and 7.

Day 6: Jeanie Bueller (badboytje88) - 2 votes (jamesn, Mencot)

Day 7: Jeanie Bueller (badboytje88) - 0 votes (jamesn)

Jeanie has been cleared Town by Andrew. While there is a possibility that she might still be the godfather, it would be illogical for the scum to push a lynch on Jeanie after Jeanie has been cleared as Town. That is too much risk for the scum to take.

P.S. (Ideally, the scum would want to push a lynch on their godfather before their godfather was investigated. This will put suspicions on the godfather and the investigator will investigate their godfather and the godfather can fly under the radar as a Townie for the rest of the game)

[mostlytechnic]

One reason could be that Chuckie would atleast say something?

He is the only one who hasn´t said anything the whole day, I understand that one can be quiet but that one doesn´t say anything thats scummy?

Agree. He's been on my radar (and gotten my vote) and likely will again unless someone pops up scummier...

I think the odds of both the framer and the investigator targeting the same person is about 1:300 odds as you have mentioned previously.

Odds of investigator investigating Simone: 1:19 (20 people, minus himself)

Odds of framer framing Simone: 1:15 (20 people, assume 5 scums)

Odds of both of that investigating and framing at the same time (assuming no contact with each other): 1/19 x 1/15 = 1:285

If you think that the Sloane being killed in Day 1 is lucky, that is only 1:16 odds (22 at the start, assume 5 scums, and minus Bud = 16)

1:285 is just . I don't know who Andrew talked to via pm, he could have told someone else.

Nope. Gotta be careful what you're calculating in stats. What you did (and what I did at first) is not "what are the odds of both targetting the same person" - it's "what are the odds of both targetting Simone". That's two very different questions.

If we want to know the odds of both going after the same person - but don't care WHO that person is - then my second calculations are correct. You assume one has picked (since it doesn't matter who) and calc the odds of the other picking the same person. So that'd make it 1:15 to 1:20 odds. Actually, better odds than that, since Bud, Newton, Ricky, craig, and Wendy were all gone, there were 17 total. Assuming 5 scum, then it'd be 1:12 to 1:17 odds.

[Purpearljellyblob]

LegoDad, on 11 April 2013 - 10:39 PM, said:

As for Chuckie, it does prove he's not the killer, but doesn't clear him of his team allegiance. He's still too quiet for my liking. Allison, I'm going to be honest, your reluctance to want to vote for the past 2 positive scum expulsions has me worried right now.

I have to agree on that too.

[mostlytechnic]

[adding numbers to match my comments below]

1. Perhaps we should look at the possibility of Claire talking to the wrong people.

2. So Mary was initially right after all. The numbers suggest that a mole is highly possible. The fact that Cameron and Andrew were expelled meant that no one can vouch for Claire and whatever she says. I would like to think that is all part of the scum's plan to put the heat on Claire. But that isn't going to work on me. But if we look at who Claire talked to, we would naturally direct our attention to Allison and Adriano.

Here it seems that Adriano has been given the all clear by Claire that Adriano might not be the mole. Now we are left with only one person.

3. Allison might not been involved in the decision making as to who to investigate, but by suggesting to Claire that Simone is scum, Allison can probably make an educated guess on the investigation that night and try the frame on Simone. If it fails, she will keep talking to Claire. If it works, the scum lives for another day. We might be looking at the scum framer at this very moment. Plus Claire did not give Allison the all clear.

4. We can infer a lot from Shawna and Burton's behavior. Shawna and Allison were suspicious of Jeanie. Shawna wanted a kill on Jeanie and was suspicious of her as well. Allison has been pushing/voted for Jeanie for Days 6 and 7.

Day 6: Jeanie Bueller (badboytje88) - 2 votes (jamesn, Mencot)

Day 7: Jeanie Bueller (badboytje88) - 0 votes (jamesn)

Jeanie has been cleared Town by Andrew. While there is a possibility that she might still be the godfather, it would be illogical for the scum to push a lynch on Jeanie after Jeanie has been cleared as Town. That is too much risk for the scum to take.

P.S. (Ideally, the scum would want to push a lynch on their godfather before their godfather was investigated. This will put suspicions on the godfather and the investigator will investigate their godfather and the godfather can fly under the radar as a Townie for the rest of the game)

Lots to respond to here...

1. Yep, a mole wouldn't have to be claire even though she's the obvious. In fact, TOO obvious I think. She's not hiding anything if she's scummy. I think either someone talked, or something.

2. Nope, see my stats explanation above. HOWEVER, I still suspect someone talking to the "inside group" because the scum have been just TOO lucky. Kill the vig on day 1, well, that's lucky. But then frame the right person too? That's too much.

3. I think you're absolutely onto something here with allison *suggesting* simone be investigated. So far this sounds like the best explanation to me - Claire, Adriano, Allison, any more details on how everything went down exactly? But so far, I'm thinking that Allison either suggested or at least agreed and encouraged that simone was scummy to push them to investigate her and then told the rest of the mesas so they'd frame simone.

4. Jeanie is either town or godfather. Based on what you said there, I'm leaning town.

At this point, I think Allison is likely scum. Claire probably town. That seems to fit the facts best.

[PsyKater]

Makes a lot of sense what both of you say here. Allison, what do you respond?

[jimmynick]

OK. Quick warning: I'm in class for the next four hours so if I don't finish saying something, I'll come back and say it then.

I think the odds of both the framer and the investigator targeting the same person is about 1:300 odds as you have mentioned previously.

Odds of investigator investigating Simone: 1:19 (20 people, minus himself)

Odds of framer framing Simone: 1:15 (20 people, assume 5 scums)

Odds of both of that investigating and framing at the same time (assuming no contact with each other): 1/19 x 1/15 = 1:285

If you think that the Sloane being killed in Day 1 is lucky, that is only 1:16 odds (22 at the start, assume 5 scums, and minus Bud = 16)

1:285 is just . I don't know who Andrew talked to via pm, he could have told someone else.

That's really dodgy there. Scum have a 100% chance of choosing someone to frame (unless they're blocked). The investigator as about a 5% (1/20) chance of choosing that person. Coincidence is not that far-fetched, and I think that's what happened in this case.

Nope. Gotta be careful what you're calculating in stats. What you did (and what I did at first) is not "what are the odds of both targetting the same person" - it's "what are the odds of both targetting Simone". That's two very different questions.

If we want to know the odds of both going after the same person - but don't care WHO that person is - then my second calculations are correct. You assume one has picked (since it doesn't matter who) and calc the odds of the other picking the same person. So that'd make it 1:15 to 1:20 odds. Actually, better odds than that, since Bud, Newton, Ricky, craig, and Wendy were all gone, there were 17 total. Assuming 5 scum, then it'd be 1:12 to 1:17 odds.

Right.

Perhaps we should look at the possibility of Claire talking to the wrong people.

So Mary was initially right after all. The numbers suggest that a mole is highly possible. The fact that Cameron and Andrew were expelled meant that no one can vouch for Claire and whatever she says. I would like to think that is all part of the scum's plan to put the heat on Claire. But that isn't going to work on me. But if we look at who Claire talked to, we would naturally direct our attention to Allison and Adriano.

The numbers suggest that luck is possible. I am not a mole, but I can't speak for Claire and Adriano (hint: I think they're town, and that scum were lucky on the frame).

Here it seems that Adriano has been given the all clear by Claire that Adriano might not be the mole. Now we are left with only one person.

Said under pressure from Adriano. I merely talked to Claire in PM about it (knowing you, Brian, love to jump over everything I say) and Claire says I'm town. Claire, please confirm this.

Allison might not been involved in the decision making as to who to investigate, but by suggesting to Claire that Simone is scum, Allison can probably make an educated guess on the investigation that night and try the frame on Simone. If it fails, she will keep talking to Claire. If it works, the scum lives for another day. We might be looking at the scum framer at this very moment. Plus Claire did not give Allison the all clear.

Claire asked me what I thought about Simone before she told me she was working with the investigator. Claire, please confirm this.

We can infer a lot from Shawna and Burton's behavior. Shawna and Allison were suspicious of Jeanie. Shawna wanted a kill on Jeanie and was suspicious of her as well. Allison has been pushing/voted for Jeanie for Days 6 and 7.

Day 6: Jeanie Bueller (badboytje88) - 2 votes (jamesn, Mencot)

Day 7: Jeanie Bueller (badboytje88) - 0 votes (jamesn)

Jeanie has been cleared Town by Andrew. While there is a possibility that she might still be the godfather, it would be illogical for the scum to push a lynch on Jeanie after Jeanie has been cleared as Town. That is too much risk for the scum to take.

If it's illogical, why do you think I'm scum because I voted for Jeanie after Andrew got a town result on her? I thought she was the godfather on Day Six. I thought the same yesterday and voted for her as a sort of proxy before seeing if town voted for Burton. And I was right in my concerns; we lost another townie last night.

I asked Claire (here and in PM) to confirm some bits that you have to take my word on for the moment.

[LegoDad]

Ok, went through pm's again and dated everything to know exactly when conversations were had.

Simone's name was only brought up in passing to Allison, never as a true target for any actions. We talked more about Davey than anyone else. So if Allison is scum, she did a good job at guessing the frame, because when it was decided that our course was to expel Wendy and investigate Simone, Allison was not involved, only Cameron, Andrew, and I.

Simone's name was never brought up to Adriano either. Adriano knew of no plan until Day 4 after the s%*t hit the fan, and I told him the sequence of events when he was fact finding.

I'm not going to out and out say that these players are Town, that's irresponsible. But no information that would have helped the scum team was given to these players. Neither knew the investigator's identity. Hell, Allison thought it was me until after the Simone debacle when I needed to spill. Again, this information makes me look bad, but I think many of you feel that I have had an open door to any information needed and have hidden nothing. I don't want to be the person pointing fingers, because that hasn't yielded much for results so far, but Chuckie and Bob's unwillingness to help or interact at all really pings with me. You guys have been practically begging them to take a larger part in this class and to no avail for 8 days now. It has gone on long enough.

Vote: Chuckie Miller ( -obelisk-)

[mostlytechnic]

Thanks for the update Claire, it's helpful. Given that, I'll slow down my suspicion of Allison for now.

Of the 10 of us remaining, I think the scummiest is:

Vote: Chuckie Miller ( -obelisk-)

[PsyKater]

I have to say that Bob was talking a lot to me behind the scenes. So he is not as quiet as it seems. It's still a bit suspicious that he is not taking part in the public discussion.

Allison, you gave a pretty satisfying answer. We can not suspect you to be scum from the framing action after all.

[Esurient]

Nope. Gotta be careful what you're calculating in stats. What you did (and what I did at first) is not "what are the odds of both targetting the same person" - it's "what are the odds of both targetting Simone". That's two very different questions.

If we want to know the odds of both going after the same person - but don't care WHO that person is - then my second calculations are correct. You assume one has picked (since it doesn't matter who) and calc the odds of the other picking the same person. So that'd make it 1:15 to 1:20 odds. Actually, better odds than that, since Bud, Newton, Ricky, craig, and Wendy were all gone, there were 17 total. Assuming 5 scum, then it'd be 1:12 to 1:17 odds.

That's really dodgy there. Scum have a 100% chance of choosing someone to frame (unless they're blocked). The investigator as about a 5% (1/20) chance of choosing that person. Coincidence is not that far-fetched, and I think that's what happened in this case.

Although I do not totally agree on the math here (I think there is an extra final step in combining the two odds together and the fact that the scum have to pick 1 target from ~15 townies so it's not a 100% chance), I am going to let it pass because this is not all about the math. The main point is that we considered the possibility of the mole and also the fact that it could be just pure luck.

Ok, went through pm's again and dated everything to know exactly when conversations were had. Simone's name was only brought up in passing to Allison, never as a true target for any actions. We talked more about Davey than anyone else. So if Allison is scum, she did a good job at guessing the frame, because when it was decided that our course was to expel Wendy and investigate Simone, Allison was not involved, only Cameron, Andrew, and I. Simone's name was never brought up to Adriano either. Adriano knew of no plan until Day 4 after the s%*t hit the fan, and I told him the sequence of events when he was fact finding. I'm not going to out and out say that these players are Town, that's irresponsible. But no information that would have helped the scum team was given to these players. Neither knew the investigator's identity. Hell, Allison thought it was me until after the Simone debacle when I needed to spill. Again, this information makes me look bad, but I think many of you feel that I have had an open door to any information needed and have hidden nothing. I don't want to be the person pointing fingers, because that hasn't yielded much for results so far, but Chuckie and Bob's unwillingness to help or interact at all really pings with me. You guys have been practically begging them to take a larger part in this class and to no avail for 8 days now. It has gone on long enough. Vote: Chuckie Miller ( -obelisk-)

I have to admit I suspected Adriano on Day 6. Back then I did not have all the information. I was just basing on what I knew from the day threads. Now that I have gathered the missing pieces, I am able to see the whole picture more clearly.

My vote today goes to:

Vote: Chuckie Miller (-obelix-)

[Hammerstein NWC]

Just to confirm to those I am in contact with I'm commuting to school each day from Budapest not Guernsey as usual this means I dont have access to a computer for large parts of the day, in fact I think I'm doing pretty well considering I am last somewhere in Europe!

As usual I post and people seem content to ignore anything I say hence my supposed quietness.

Guess I need to start making things up and pointing fingers...

I don't see how people quite get to the 100% certainty they seem to have through speculation, voting patterns come in and out of favour s it suits people's needs. One day we are using Adriannos suspicion pole and the next we are back looking at how people vote.

I refuse to jump on a bandwagon? Why are people so certain one quiet person is more guilty than another?

To me people are seeing what they want when they want.

It's probably going to put a target on my head but I am going to vote for Claire she talks about my unwillingness to participate in discussion but clearly hasn't noticed the number of times I have posted compared to other seemingly more trustworthy class mates. Also how her vocal behaviour early doors was instrumental in getting three townies lynched!

She behaves as if she is beyond reproach but in several posts has had to repeat how many times she looks bad because of things she has said and done. Everybody also seems blind to the fact that people she pms seem to end up dead?

Vote Claire Standish (Legodad)

Time for all those other Townes to stop being sheep and sand up and be counted.

Damn autocorrect, last sentence should have read

Time for all the other Townies to stop being sheep and stand up and be counted!

[PsyKater]

I have to admit I suspected Adriano on Day 6. Back then I did not have all the information. I was just basing on what I knew from the day threads. Now that I have gathered the missing pieces, I am able to see the whole picture more clearly.

My vote today goes to:

Vote: Chuckie Miller (-obelix-)

Hmm.. something is missing there, do you mind adding a fee things?

Why were you suspicious of me? What came to the picture that you are not suspicious of me anymore?

Why do you vote for Chuckie?

To prevent an early bandwagon, I unvote: Chuckie Miller (-obelix-), although I don't know if some of the votes even count (obelisk).

Chuckie, start talking. Whom are you suspicious of? What do you read from the results of the former days?

Jeanie, why are you so quiet? You have to start talking as well!

[badboytje88]

I too am going to

Vote: Claire Standish, (LegoDad):

I'm ok with lynching chucky. But I would rather see Claire lynched. If needed I will change my vote. Claire is the mole we are looking for! I have a realy strong gut feeling about it.

[Mencot]

Vote: Chuckie Miller ( -obelisk-)

Vote: Chuckie Miller ( -obelisk-)

You have his name wrong, Lucy has it right

My vote today goes to:

Vote: Chuckie Miller (-obelix-)

[PsyKater]

I too am going to

Vote: Claire Standish, (LegoDad):

I'm ok with lynching chucky. But I would rather see Claire lynched. If needed I will change my vote. Claire is the mole we are looking for! I have a realy strong gut feeling about it.

Just a gut feeling? No clues from posts etc?

[Mencot]

I have a hard time now seeing who is scum, all of you just point your fingers at each other

I too am going to

Vote: Claire Standish, (LegoDad):

I'm ok with lynching chucky. But I would rather see Claire lynched. If needed I will change my vote. Claire is the mole we are looking for! I have a realy strong gut feeling about it.

So Jeanie, you jumped on that. Care to give more info why, you would be ok on lynching Chuckie also but vote now on Claire. So you think they are both scum then?

[mostlytechnic]

In case my typo is a problem (actually, I just copied and pasted from someone above me and copied their error):

Unvote: Chuckie Miller (-obelisk-)

Vote: Chuckie Miller (-obelix-)

[LegoDad]

It appears that I am very divisive amongst the group right now. There seems to be a decent sized group that feels I'm town, even with my mistakes. Then there is a group that wants me out, "I'm the mole", "I can't be trusted". From my standpoint, the people pointing fingers at me are trying to throw something at the wall and see if it sticks. I don't know who all is town and is talking to each other behind the scenes, because I have had few conversations lately. Communication is going to have to get better if we're going to win. If there are a couple factions of town that aren't talking to each other and are coming up with different people they think are scum, nothing is going to get accomplished. I have voted for Chuckie (incorrectly it appears) due mostly because he has little to say. But Jeannie's "he's the mole we're looking for" absolutely screams "I'm scum, but I'm trying to start a bandwagon for Claire". I know she came up town, and she has been somewhat vouched for but that pinged me out of my seat.

Unvote: Chuckie Miller (-obelix-)

Vote: Jeannie Bueller (badboytje88)

I'm always open to change if someone can change my mind, but shouting out something from the back row to get the townfolk riled up strikes me as odd.

[jimmynick]

I was going to vote for Chuckie today because of his obstinate lack of participation. Lurkers help the town lose. I mean, see his post today and a bit of what he said yesterday, in which he essentially admitted to lying low. Playing to survive the lynches and scumkills (but really vig-kills for scum) is not the way to go. But then...

I know Brian (and Mary Jane?) think it's weird I suspect Jeanie, but she's made two very odd comments today:

That's just complete crap! We expelled their killer twice and they just keep getting a new one... How much chances are these scumbags going to get. I'm sorry but that's just whack!

I'm ok with lynching chucky. But I would rather see Claire lynched. If needed I will change my vote. Claire is the mole we are looking for! I have a realy strong gut feeling about it.

The first comment seems clueless and the second is very scummy. Jeanie seems to be on the fence between Chuckie and Claire, and then suddenly is certain that Claire must be the mole.

I can't decide. I think I really need to hear more from Chuckie and from Jeanie before I make a decision.

[PsyKater]

Jeanie, why didn't you address any of my questions?

Why do you keep playing completely clueless although you are the most experienced player?

[Esurient]

Hmm.. something is missing there, do you mind adding a fee things?

Why were you suspicious of me? What came to the picture that you are not suspicious of me anymore?

Why do you vote for Chuckie?

Here is my reasoning for voting for Adriano on Day 6

I have been observing and these are my views.

Claire started talking after Cameron (Town) was expelled and Claire said she was relieved that she wasn't made use of. Does that mean she is scum? Not possibly. I think it's just a bad case of Town talking to Town. So why is Claire feeling that she might be made use of? Is someone talking to her and telling other things to her? Maybe. If I put Andrew into this situation, Andrew might be a possible scum. Clearing Ricky as Town and keeping him till the end would be beneficial to the scum, you all know why. Clearing Jeanie as Town would also be beneficial because she does not seem to align with anyone and doesn't talk much. But does that mean Andrew is a definite scum? Maybe/No. It might also be a case of telling the results to the wrong people. If I put Adriano into this picture, it will make a little bit more sense. Adriano's behaviour changed after Cameron was expelled. he claims he was away from his laptop so he cannot fully analyse the results. Could his "laptop" be Cameron? Is he influencing Cameron behind the scenes, so Cameron can influence Claire and Andrew? Possibly. Does that explain why Cameron was expelled? Possibly. Cameron was outspoken all these while and has major influence over the lynches. Cameron could have figured out Adriano has been trying to pull the strings behind the scenes and threatened to expose Adriano. So perhaps that explains why he was surprisingly expelled. I know everyone trusts Adriano now and what he has done trying to help us find scum. But if you think about it, he has control over the survey results, he knows how to manipulate the results, put several colours and group us into several groups so that we will make the decision accordingly? Is that all part of his plan? Because maybe he is scum and he knows how to manipulate the votes accordingly to favour the scum?

These are my thoughts and trying to think out of the box.

Vote: Adriano Parbritzzi (PsyKater)

Because I have came across new information provided by Claire in post #57 and the results from the lynches/kills, I am going to revise my reasoning on Day 6 and add in the relevant details.

Claire started talking after Cameron (Town) was expelled and Claire said she was relieved that she wasn't made use of. Does that mean she is scum? Not possibly. I think it's just a bad case of Town talking to Town. So why is Claire feeling that she might be made use of? Is someone talking to her and telling other things to her? Maybe. If I put Andrew into this situation, Andrew might be a possible scum. Clearing Ricky as Town and keeping him till the end would be beneficial to the scum, you all know why. Clearing Jeanie as Town would also be beneficial because she does not seem to align with anyone and doesn't talk much. But does that mean Andrew is a definite scum? Maybe/No. It might also be a case of telling the results to the wrong people. If I put Adriano into this picture, it will make a little bit more sense. Adriano's behaviour changed after Cameron was expelled. he claims he was away from his laptop so he cannot fully analyse the results. Could his "laptop" be Cameron? Is he influencing Cameron behind the scenes, so Cameron can influence Claire and Andrew? Possibly. Does that explain why Cameron was expelled? Possibly. Cameron was outspoken all these while and has major influence over the lynches. Cameron could have figured out Adriano has been trying to pull the strings behind the scenes and threatened to expose Adriano. So perhaps that explains why he was surprisingly expelled. I know everyone trusts Adriano now and what he has done trying to help us find scum. But if you think about it, he has control over the survey results, he knows how to manipulate the results, put several colours and group us into several groups so that we will make the decision accordingly? Is that all part of his plan? Because maybe he is scum and he knows how to manipulate the votes accordingly to favour the scums?

Now that the issue of the mole came up as a real possibility, I am withdrawing my bid for Adriano as the definite scum mole because there are 3 candidates involved. Claire, Adriano and Allison. So I have come up with a new analysis.

This came as a blessing in disguise when we discussed about the odds of the mole (1:300 or 1:12 to 1:17), because it made Allison step up and clarified who was talking to who at behind the day threads and also who is trusting who. It seemed to me that Claire decided to vouch for Adriano at the start and when Allison came along and said "What about me?" Claire decided to make it neutral and sided both if them and said both of them wren't the moles. So if Adriano and Allison weren't the moles, then who is? If Claire is scum, why would she put all the suspicions back to herself again and risk being lynched because by clearing Allison and Adriano, she has made herself the target? So I think Claire is town at this moment. How about Adriano and Allison? I understand that they have been talking to Claire all these while but Claire said she did not reveal anything about the Town investigation/investigator until the result of Simone was revealed in the Day thread. That led me to believe that Adriano and Allison are not moles at the moment. This led me to believe that either Cameron or Andrew was talking to the wrong people and the scum killed them for it so no one would know who's the mole. So this mole is out there.

And why did I vote for Chuckie?

Shawna

Shawna believed in the existence of a framer and a godfather from the beginning.

She was 'suspicious' of Jeanie at the beginning.

She wanted to get rid of Andrew after she claimed SK to me.

She wanted to target badboy when we were talking about a SK target for her.

She did not want to kill Chuckie.

She seemed to have no problems with killing Brian.

In the survey she voted for: Andrew, Davey and Claire.

Why did Shawna refuse to kill Chuckie? If she was really the SK at that time she would have no problems taking out the quiet people. So that is something to think about.

Other than that I also thought Jeanie was Town because Andrew cleared Jeanie and Shawna also wanted to target Jeanie.

From what I am observing at this moment, looks like the tide has turned and it contradicted to all that I am led to believe from the Day threads. Jeanie is Town so why her? How about Chuckie? Then why Claire again? :wacko:

[Purpearljellyblob]

Vote Claire Standish (Legodad)

Just down to the administrative side of things, your vote has no " : " after the "Vote". Hence I am not sure if this vote counts.

Quote

Shawna

Shawna believed in the existence of a framer and a godfather from the beginning.

She was 'suspicious' of Jeanie at the beginning.

She wanted to get rid of Andrew after she claimed SK to me.

She wanted to target badboy when we were talking about a SK target for her.

She did not want to kill Chuckie.

She seemed to have no problems with killing Brian.

My vote today is simple. Shawna the former ex-scum killer refused to get rid of Chuckie when asked to. Chuckie was suspicious back then so that should be no reason not to do the kill. The only explanation would be Chuckie and Shawna are aligned together as fellow scum. For that, I am going to:

Vote: Chuckie Miller (-obelix-)

[LegoDad]

Can someone point me in the correct direction where Shawna wouldn't kill Chuckie? I don't remember this but it would be a big piece of information that I seem to have overlooked at some point. This would definitely change my vote if this evidence is concrete. Thanks.

[Esurient]

Can someone point me in the correct direction where Shawna wouldn't kill Chuckie? I don't remember this but it would be a big piece of information that I seem to have overlooked at some point. This would definitely change my vote if this evidence is concrete. Thanks.

Day 8 post #25

http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=81403entry1564617

[mostlytechnic]

Jeanie, why didn't you address any of my questions?

Why do you keep playing completely clueless although you are the most experienced player?

Jeanie's an experienced player? I was confused for a while about the whole "scum-kill ability gets passed on thing" but that's cause I've never played before. I asked about exactly that yesterday but Allison explained how it works here on EB games. We cleared this all up yesterday, so why is Jeanie commenting like this now, ESPECIALLY if she's an experienced player?

If Claire is scum, why would she put all the suspicions back to herself again and risk being lynched because by clearing Allison and Adriano, she has made herself the target? So I think Claire is town at this moment. How about Adriano and Allison? I understand that they have been talking to Claire all these while but Claire said she did not reveal anything about the Town investigation/investigator until the result of Simone was revealed in the Day thread. That led me to believe that Adriano and Allison are not moles at the moment. This led me to believe that either Cameron or Andrew was talking to the wrong people and the scum killed them for it so no one would know who's the mole. So this mole is out there.

Based on everything we've been told, I agree 100% with this conclusion. I think Claire is town, Simone was framed due to a mole, but the mole was someone Andrew or Cameron was talking to, so we have no way of knowing now unless someone knows who else they were talking to at the time.

Day 8 post #25

http://www.eurobrick...3

That's just Adriano's summary, not when she actually said anything. if I get a chance I'll look through the day threads and try to find some evidence - Adriano, do you know off-hand when she said anything about Chuckie?

I also thought Jeanie was Town because Andrew cleared Jeanie and Shawna also wanted to target Jeanie.

IIRC, Shawna wanted to target Jeanie EARLY on, before the investigator was known. IF (and that's a big if) Jeanie is godfather, then casting suspicion on her so that the investigator would investigate is a great strategy - you WANT the godfather to be investigated and "proven" loyal. If that's publicly known it's even better since then whatever they say is accepted by the townies as true. (If I can I'll try to look through the early days and find documentation on this too - until I or someone else finds some proof, I might be wrong on this since I can't swear the "shawna suspicious of jeanie" stuff was early)