Scubacarrot Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 Hm. I'd like to think that since it is the same manner of death, it was a scum kill as people have said, we can't know for sure until we see other kills. I'd like to think two things: blockers and or protectors have done accurate jobs, hence no other night kills. The other thing is that I like to believe our mayor was killed for a reason. Could anyone say if he was active in private? I mean in conversation, not in the bedroom. I don't think the "softclaim" means anything. To me, it didn't seem like that at all, and if Esther was indeed scum, believed it was a claim of some sort, and killed him because of that, it seems pretty weird to bring that up in thread. It's entirely possible the scum chose Drake because he was quiet, didn't add much, maybe hiding a role and trying not to get much attention. As an addendum to my previous post, Esther seems to have voted for Caleb at a time where she caused a tie, if that means anything. In the case of a tie, the first person to reach the votes get's lynched, and it's only natural she wouldn't vote for herself. I think we can safely say it doesn't mean anything.
Peanuts Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 Well, that was not the best start one could have imagined. I really hoped Caleb was scum, but I was wrong. About the kill last night, it very well could be a scum kill, but our mayor also would have been the perfect victim for a serial killer, being well-known on the one side, but quiet and thus unlikely to be, well, protected. I doubt it was a vig-kill, though. Drake wasn't a main suspect, so why vig-kill him? Well, that's not good. (and for the record, yesterday's final vote count is wrong. Esther ended with 7 votes, not 8. Caleb would have been gone with or without my vote switch at the end) It's interesting that you feel the need to point out it wasn't you who condemned Caleb. I'm not saying it's scummy per se, but, er, interesting. Well, the obvious implication here is that Esther (Esurient) is the Town Vigilante, since she was the only person who suspected my dad. However, I think if Esther (Esurient) is scum, then my father - or anybody else on Esther's hit list - would be a really clever scum kill, because it would lead us to trust Esther (Esurient) and believe her to be the Town Vigilante. I know you said you didn't think your father was killed by the vig, but please don't try to figure the vigilante out in public. There are a few things I noticed about Esther from yesterday, and I thought they could be used to help decide her affiliation. It was noticed that Esther was very reluctant to claim. Is it possible that she was reluctant because she's a Coyote and wanted to say she had a PR to save herself? Is it possible that she didn't say which PR she was, so there weren't any interfering claims? I also noticed where she placed her vote. She didn't place her vote on someone she had marked as scum, but instead, someone that she only had a 50/50 read on. Could it be that she was trying to even out the votes (I need to double-check the tally)? Perhaps a few of those that Esther listed are actually Coyotes, and she's attempting to distance herself from them, but mistakenly voted somewhere else? Any thoughts on this? I agree that her not getting precise might be intended to avoid interfering claims, which is the only thing I found suspicious about her. And, yes, she definitely voted Caleb to save herself. It was not clear if she would survive even just before the end. Still, I'm reluctant to risk a power role and I'm not getting a scum read on her either. It is certainly possible that someone protected Esther on the basis of her softclaim, but protected her against what? It's more likely that the scum killed Drake, which still leaves the unanswered question of why Drake over Esther? If I was scum, I wouldn't want to take the risk. Esther was the only town role they knew (assuming she is town), but she also was the only town role we knew. This bears the risk of wasting a night kill (if she was protected) or losing a killer (if she was watched). Both would be really bad for the scum.
Scubacarrot Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 Keep in mind that Esther was prime Watcher and Protector material. If anything, I think she is less likely to be scum, but that's just me.
mostlytechnic Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 I guess you are right in that your vote switch did not matter really, but it still make me a bit uncomfortable. Your switch was both unnecessary and ill-explained; you said you would gladly vote for someone else or even do a throw away vote but yet vote for Caleb and explain it by basically saying 'might as well jump on the bandwagon'. You then proceed to say that you're likely lynching a townie and conclude by saying you would have voted for someone else Looking back, yeah, I didn't play well at the end of the day. I'd basically gotten wary of voting Esther (risking a PR), so I switched my vote even though I wasn't confident elsewhere. It wasn't explained well, so I see where it looked suspicious. Sorry. Interesting. I think at the moment Esther is our best chance, unless night actions have revealed something. Drake seems to of been a metagame kill by the Coyotes. Surely if Esther was town she would of been targeted? Actually, Esther claims to be a PR, I wonder If she did anything yesterday night, I agree that the Mayor was likely metagamed. Only reason I can see it... so I'm thinking likely that the scum assumed Esther would be protected/watched, so they killed someone that was non being suspected and therefore very unlikely to have any other attention paid to him. That is of course assuming he was scum-killed. As for the other "missing" kills... very possible that the vig wasn't confident enough to kill. Doubt I'd play it that way, but it's very possible. Assuming there IS a third party with a kill, either the blocker got lucky, Esther was protected and they went after her, or heck, maybe they got unlucky and both scum and 3rd party went after the horny mayor! Dunno...
LegoDad Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 Keep in mind that Esther was prime Watcher and Protector material. If anything, I think she is less likely to be scum, but that's just me. Looking back, yeah, I didn't play well at the end of the day. I'd basically gotten wary of voting Esther (risking a PR), so I switched my vote even though I wasn't confident elsewhere. It wasn't explained well, so I see where it looked suspicious. Sorry. I agree that the Mayor was likely metagamed. Only reason I can see it... so I'm thinking likely that the scum assumed Esther would be protected/watched, so they killed someone that was non being suspected and therefore very unlikely to have any other attention paid to him. That is of course assuming he was scum-killed. As for the other "missing" kills... very possible that the vig wasn't confident enough to kill. Doubt I'd play it that way, but it's very possible. Assuming there IS a third party with a kill, either the blocker got lucky, Esther was protected and they went after her, or heck, maybe they got unlucky and both scum and 3rd party went after the horny mayor! Dunno... Sheridan, I think the latter, as Molly is pointing out, is more likely, personally.
CMP Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 Good news, the Unbelievable Carletta Emilia Benita Cecilia Maria Roberta Consuela Rosalina Margarita Puerta just found out she's Italian. And her real name is Carletta Emilia Benita Cecilia Maria Giuliana Roberta Consuela Rosalina Margarita Puerta. Bad news, townies died. The Unbelievable Carletta is sad to lose her mayor and town drunk. She is prepared to vote Esther again, barring any massive breakthroughs. If anything, her suspicion of Esther has grown. As for Drake's death, my guess is that it's a coyote killing. Perhaps they agreed with Esther's theory that he was "soft claiming" yesterday? That or they wanted a veteran gone. I truly pity them, then, if they believed that... Well, the obvious implication here is that Esther (Esurient) is the Town Vigilante, since she was the only person who suspected my dad. However, I think if Esther (Esurient) is scum, then my father - or anybody else on Esther's hit list - would be a really clever scum kill, because it would lead us to trust Esther (Esurient) and believe her to be the Town Vigilante. Interesting analysis. The Unbelievable Carletta hopes Esther isn't the vig and will kill off her already-cemented 'scum list' she created yesterday. Good vigs have patience with their kills. The second theory....possibly. She did make that cryptic note about her having to claim if the votes continued to pile up. Perhaps she was setting it up for this a situation? I think that what Damien is trying to say is that Esther might be scum, and that's why she survived the night and Drake died instead. Perhaps. Or maybe the other killer tried to kill her, but failed? Due to her 'softclaim' (I guess that's what we're calling it now?) she likely had town protection. But if Abigail's second theory is correct, it's probable she had scum protection too, just in case. Devious. And smart. The Unbelievable Carletta would like to hear what Esther has to say. (Or perhaps more accurately, who's she's going to accuse to try and draw attention away from her... )
LegoDad Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 That's exactly what I said. It seems you were saying she is town, and was protection/watch material, which is why she is alive. While it seemed that Molly is saying that Esther is alive for the same reasons, but that she's scum. Essentially, alive because either the scum were afraid to kill her and be caught, or conversely, the vig didn't want to kill her for risk of getting caught. Same idea, different teams. Would this be correct? I can see both scenarios as very plausible, but I am leaning right now towards Molly, and that Esther is scummy. 60/40 we shall say.
Tachyon Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 Wait, have we come across the thought that the Coyotes don't want to kill Esther knowing tha there is a high possibility that she'll be lynched today ?
LegoDad Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 Wait, have we come across the thought that the Coyotes don't want to kill Esther knowing tha there is a high possibility that she'll be lynched today ? It's possible, but if the "softclaim" turns to be true, their opportunity is missed, as Esther would probably gain permanent protection if she was a PR. Esther really needs to claim today if she's really town. The charade needs to end. She either needs to prove her allegiance to the town or be dead. And not some lame megablocks made up role, something that can be verified by the real PR if she's lying.
Kristel Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 Well, that's not good. (and for the record, yesterday's final vote count is wrong. Esther ended with 7 votes, not 8. Caleb would have been gone with or without my vote switch at the end) Looking back, yeah, I didn't play well at the end of the day. I'd basically gotten wary of voting Esther (risking a PR), so I switched my vote even though I wasn't confident elsewhere. It wasn't explained well, so I see where it looked suspicious. Sorry. Why are you playing dumb? Captain Nemo was 1 vote ahead before you switched your vote. There was one other vote to come (from Kenneth) so Caleb's fate technically hadn't been sealed yet. After your vote switch, Caleb was 3 votes ahead. Assuming no further switching of votes, your switch did pretty much seal Caleb's fate. Especially when you consider this switch came just one hour before the close of the day. You left little time for people to react. Oh, my. Two townies dead. It's not as bad as it could have been, luckily. I'm still thinking that Esther is more scum than town, or even Independent, but I'm fairly sure that she's anti-town at the least. It's interesting how she survived, too. Wouldn't the scum have killed her if she's the only known town PR? I don't think scum would have targeted Esther last night if she was town. Better to leave us wondering about her allegiance than confirming it for us. Furthermore, there would have been a chance she was being watched or protected, meaning that any action directed at her could reveal one of them or be a wasted action. Notwithstanding her supposed PR claim, protecting her last night would have been a risky move for town because of the possibility that she is scum and that scum were watching her. I'd hate to think a townie PR risked exposing themselves last night by targeting Esther with any action. As for Drake's death, my guess is that it's a coyote killing. Perhaps they agreed with Esther's theory that he was "soft claiming" yesterday? That or they wanted a veteran gone. I think the latter - Drake was probably meta-killed by scum. Drake's comment about getting a closer look came across as role playing to me and nothing else. But she was being a quiet mayor during the day despite the active role-playing earlier on. That may have led the scum to believe she was worthy of a kill. Well, the obvious implication here is that Esther (Esurient) is the Town Vigilante, since she was the only person who suspected my dad. However, I think if Esther (Esurient) is scum, then my father - or anybody else on Esther's hit list - would be a really clever scum kill, because it would lead us to trust Esther (Esurient) and believe her to be the Town Vigilante. This seems like a big leap of faith. Can you explain your reasoning a bit more? As an addendum to my previous post, Esther seems to have voted for Caleb at a time where she caused a tie, if that means anything. In the case of a tie, the first person to reach the votes get's lynched, and it's only natural she wouldn't vote for herself. I think we can safely say it doesn't mean anything. Agreed. I noticed this too, but assumed she was trying to save her own butt. This applies equally if she is scum or town. In summary: Drake was probably a scum kill, based on her behaviour and the MO I want to write "scum" next to Esther on my list because she is still alive, but I can see why nobody would go near her last night. I'm keen to hear what she has to say. There's not enough information yet that I'm aware of to determine whether vig choose not to kill or was unsuccessful. Lots of possible scenarios, which have been mentioned already. Same goes for the independent, assuming he/she is a serial killer.
TrumpetKing Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 I probably should have mentioned the rule in my addendum. It's possible that she hadn't noticed the rule about ties, so she was hoping to get lucky, maybe. It seems a few people have been rather quiet today. We're still missing Prudence, Kenneth, Tony, Michael, Esther, and Beatrice. I'd like to hear thoughts from the six of them. Especially Esther. We need to find out if she's lying or not before we come up with a solid lynch idea.
mostlytechnic Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 It seems you were saying she is town, and was protection/watch material, which is why she is alive. While it seemed that Molly is saying that Esther is alive for the same reasons, but that she's scum. Essentially, alive because either the scum were afraid to kill her and be caught, or conversely, the vig didn't want to kill her for risk of getting caught. Same idea, different teams. Would this be correct? I can see both scenarios as very plausible, but I am leaning right now towards Molly, and that Esther is scummy. 60/40 we shall say. I think you misunderstood me - I was also saying I'm leaning slightly town on Esther. Like 55/45, but still. I said (and you quoted me) "so I'm thinking likely that the scum assumed Esther would be protected/watched, so they killed someone that was non being suspected" Meaning that the scum avoided targetting Esther. Why are you playing dumb? Captain Nemo was 1 vote ahead before you switched your vote. There was one other vote to come (from Kenneth) so Caleb's fate technically hadn't been sealed yet. After your vote switch, Caleb was 3 votes ahead. Assuming no further switching of votes, your switch did pretty much seal Caleb's fate. Especially when you consider this switch came just one hour before the close of the day. You left little time for people to react. Agreed. I noticed this too, but assumed she was trying to save her own butt. This applies equally if she is scum or town. Look, it was near the end of the day, I wasn't trying to seal Caleb, I was trying to protect a possible town PR. Maybe I should have thrown away my vote on someone else. I had just a minute to catch up and vote while in the outhouse between gigs at the saloon... not an optimal time or place for thinkin. And yes, I agree that Esther voting caleb isn't a scum or towntell. It's just her saving herself. I'd have been shocked to see her vote anyone else. Looking forward to hearing from esther and the other silent ones... we gotta start planning for another round at the gallows.
LegoDad Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 Yep, I misread it, sorry. I'm not sure what shift Esther works around this town, but the longer we don't hear from her, the more I doubt her towniness. Could be hanging with the Coyotes coming up with a defense. Could be working off a massive hangover after surviving the night, who knows?
Piratedave84 Posted June 28, 2013 Posted June 28, 2013 SNIP Look, it was near the end of the day, I wasn't trying to seal Caleb, I was trying to protect a possible town PR. Maybe I should have thrown away my vote on someone else. I had just a minute to catch up and vote while in the outhouse between gigs at the saloon... not an optimal time or place for thinkin. Sorry for scrutinizing your vote but this is flawed reasoning for 2 reasons: 1) Esther was not at risk seeing that Kenneth had already made clear that he would not vote 2) Caleb was already a guaranteed (99,9%)lynch seeing that he a) had achieved the most votes ahead of Esther so would have been convicted even if a tie had occurred and b) it was too late in the day for anyone to rally and save Caleb should something had poped up in his favor. You did seal his fate; we just have to figure out why. My initial comment that this was a relatively non-town move still stands. This being said, your behaviour as a whole does not really transpire as scummy so I'm willing to overlook this weird vote for now.
mostlytechnic Posted June 29, 2013 Posted June 29, 2013 Sorry for scrutinizing your vote but this is flawed reasoning for 2 reasons: My initial comment that this was a relatively non-town move still stands. This being said, your behaviour as a whole does not really transpire as scummy so I'm willing to overlook this weird vote for now. Don't apologize, scrutinizing votes is what we're supposed to be doing! Yeah, I recognize in hind-sight that it wasn't the towniest of things to do, but hopefully the rest of my discussion and votes will assure others of my townieness as well.
Dannylonglegs Posted June 29, 2013 Posted June 29, 2013 This isn't Esther's first rodeo, I don't exactly feel this way. Again, hopefully some info will come out and show that she was protected, but my initial feeling right now is that she's alive for a scummy reason. Well she's certainly acting like it's her second. Not to be offensive of course. One doesn't really fully understand the rodeo... of life until one goes at in a few times. But I just can't believe a team of scum would let her claim she'd claim. That's the kind of important stuff even tenderfoots ask their team about. Wait, have we come across the thought that the Coyotes don't want to kill Esther knowing tha there is a high possibility that she'll be lynched today ? This theory makes allot of sense. Considering the amount of controversy her "Soft claim" produced, and the fact that a significant amount of people are still suspicious of her, I'd say that there's a strong possibility that the Scum will try to get her Lynched today.
Purpearljellyblob Posted June 29, 2013 Posted June 29, 2013 Here are my thoughts, Final Vote Count Caleb Norman (Captain Nemo) - 10 (Scubacarrot, Mencot, jamesn, Peanuts, Adam, LegoDad, Purpearljellyblob, Esurient, TinyPiesRUs, mostlytechnic) Esther Thompson (Esurient) - 7 (Kadabra, CallMePie, Trumpetking, Darkdragon, TheBoyWonder, Captain Nemo, Clanure) Michael Thompson (Mencot) - 4 (Capt. Redblade, Bob, Dannylonglegs, Kristel) Sheridan Thompson (Scubacarrot) - 1 (Zakura) Beatrice Kingsley (Bob) - 1 (PirateDave84) No vote - 1 (KielDaMan) I believe it was 8 votes Esther and 7 votes Caleb before Esther tied up the votes. In that case, Esther would still be lynched. So Esther's vote on Caleb is most likely saving her butt. Ugh. Are we really going to lynch a possible Power role on day one? Esther, poor showing that you haven't spoken up lately, I've got to say. There is also no excuse for not voting. I've seen both Kenneth and Tony around who haven't voted yet. It's just lazy. Don't go using it as an excuse tomorrow when people go after you saying: Boohoo, you're just going after me because I've got penalty votes. I also noticed something interesting. Tony and Kenneth were there when Sheridan posted ^. Esther voted 17 minutes after Sheridan's call. And Tony voted 5 minutes after Esther. I am not there when these votes were casted so I am not sure how long Tony and Kenneth had been around. But it seemed to me as if Tony had made a very quick strategic vote to save Esther. Assuming Kenneth were to cast a vote after on Caleb to force a tie, Caleb would still be lynched. Molly subsequently switched her vote for Caleb to make it 10-7. The fact that Esther is still around on Day 2 made it seem that there is a plot to keep Esther around. Could easily be a scum motive because she is scum or that the scum wants to keep her around or a town motive to save a potential PR. I am interested to see what Tony and Esther has to say and what they will do today.
Bob Posted June 29, 2013 Posted June 29, 2013 I, Betty, am here to provide you with my insight on this current situation. Blah blah blah "two townies dead"; filler filler filler "such a tragedy"; fluff fluff fluff "we'll work twice as hard today"; yammer yammer yammer "did anyone learn anything last night?" In all seriousness, I'm willing to vote for Esther today. I'm willing to assume we have a Vig and that he was likely blocked or that his/her target was protected. Any logical vig would target Esther as she received the next highest amount of votes. It's because of this that it's my belief that she was protected, which isn't exactly comforting. Either that or the Vig was blocked and we're screwed. Either or, but it's still a lead.
LegoDad Posted June 29, 2013 Posted June 29, 2013 I, Betty, am here to provide you with my insight on this current situation. Blah blah blah "two townies dead"; filler filler filler "such a tragedy"; fluff fluff fluff "we'll work twice as hard today"; yammer yammer yammer "did anyone learn anything last night?" In all seriousness, I'm willing to vote for Esther today. I'm willing to assume we have a Vig and that he was likely blocked or that his/her target was protected. Any logical vig would target Esther as she received the next highest amount of votes. It's because of this that it's my belief that she was protected, which isn't exactly comforting. Either that or the Vig was blocked and we're screwed. Either or, but it's still a lead. A lead? More like common sense that we've been talking about since the day began. Do you have any of your own thoughts on the matter?
Piratedave84 Posted June 29, 2013 Posted June 29, 2013 Don't apologize, scrutinizing votes is what we're supposed to be doing! Yeah, I recognize in hind-sight that it wasn't the towniest of things to do, but hopefully the rest of my discussion and votes will assure others of my townieness as well. "it wasn't the towniest of things to do" ... so you are saying you were bad at appearing town? A lead? More like common sense that we've been talking about since the day began. Do you have any of your own thoughts on the matter? Does Beatrice actually have any thoughts, on anything? I pointed out her lack of participation yesterday and today her first post is a whole lot of .... nothing!
LegoDad Posted June 29, 2013 Posted June 29, 2013 "it wasn't the towniest of things to do" ... so you are saying you were bad at appearing town? Does Beatrice actually have any thoughts, on anything? I pointed out her lack of participation yesterday and today her first post is a whole lot of .... nothing! Maybe I've had too much to drink behind the counter of the store, but this made me laugh.
mostlytechnic Posted June 29, 2013 Posted June 29, 2013 Maybe I've had too much to drink behind the counter of the store, but this made me laugh. It actually made me laugh too
MagPiesRUs Posted June 29, 2013 Posted June 29, 2013 I don't know why everyone is assuming Esther is scum simply because she wasn't killed last night. She would've been a poor choice for a scum-kill. Yesterday, everyone was already predicting she'd be killed, so why would the scum risk targeting her? It's much easier for them to target someone below the radar so that they do not risk being caught by a watcher or getting blocked by a doctor. If Esther is a townie, the scum have made a good choice not killing her - as now, everyone believes that because she isn't dead, she must be a Coyote. As for why Drake was killed, this post is rather interesting: Anyway, folks, I see a lot of talking. A few of you, well I've seen you around town before and let me tell you, you are acting a bit strange today. Now I'm not going to say who all I suspect because, let's face it, we can only catch one person a day and hope they are the right one. I don't want the others trying to stop doing what they are doing that makes me suspect them. Unfortunately, he never named the others he found strange. It's certainly possible the scum wanted to silence him before she could reveal his other suspects. Drake used to be the mayor of Aperture City, so I'd assume she'd be able to get the best reads on the people who lived there with her, though that's just a guess. I also noticed something interesting. Tony and Kenneth were there when Sheridan posted ^. Esther voted 17 minutes after Sheridan's call. And Tony voted 5 minutes after Esther. I am not there when these votes were casted so I am not sure how long Tony and Kenneth had been around. But it seemed to me as if Tony had made a very quick strategic vote to save Esther. Assuming Kenneth were to cast a vote after on Caleb to force a tie, Caleb would still be lynched. Molly subsequently switched her vote for Caleb to make it 10-7. The fact that Esther is still around on Day 2 made it seem that there is a plot to keep Esther around. Could easily be a scum motive because she is scum or that the scum wants to keep her around or a town motive to save a potential PR. I am interested to see what Tony and Esther has to say and what they will do today. I had started posting before Esther made her post. If Esther and I were trying to coordinate our votes, I wouldn't have blatantly voted straight after her. I'm not sure why you're suspicious of me because I cast the deciding vote. Someone always has to do it. As I said, I would have preferred to see a potential vanilla townie dead that a potential PR townie dead. Thus, I voted for Caleb.
Esurient Posted June 29, 2013 Posted June 29, 2013 This is what I have decided to do, let's take this to a vote: Those who are IN FAVOUR of me claiming say 'AYE' and your reason(s) why. Those who are NOT IN FAVOUR of me claiming say 'NAY' and your reason(s) why. I want everyone to participate in this. I want this to be a Town decision. If you are Scum, you can reveal yourself by not participating in this.
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