fhomess

Yes, I chose Lindsey yesterday and will not change that now. I'm back from my mini-vacation so should be able to contribute regularly again. I vote Yes We aren't really. We need to pass 2 more town policies. What's good is that there are still 3 town policies in the deck and only 7 scum policies.

I did indeed get 3 mafia cards. Edward or Michael are scum. I lean towards Edward. Lindsey for Mayor! Not sure how to bold from my phone.

We'll only get a scum card if Edward or you were lying about what you were given and there really aren't any more town cards in the deck. I would find that highly unlikely given that no one has proposed trying to fail three governments to draw the next two cards off the deck. ... or if Patricia doesn't play along.

I nominate Patricia Davis - Tariq as TCC. I can't chose Michael or Erik because they were in the council yesterday. I won't choose Joshua, Ralph, or Anne for the investigation reasons. I don't wish to choose Scott because he hasn't shown up since Day 2. Edward and Robert are similar to Patricia - unknowns to me, and I'm not entirely comfortable with either. I don't wish to choose Lindsey because I'm pretty sure she's town. It's likely that there will be exactly one town card in my hand (one of our mayors lied), so I should be able to pass along a town and a scum card to Patricia so we can get an appropriate read on her. If Patricia ends up revealing herself as scum by passing a mafia policy, I will have the right to install Lindsey or Erik as Mayor tomorrow. If not, we get the town policy passed and we're one step closer to victory. I should note that I am going to have less time to contribute over the next few days, but will do my best.

Are you surprised?

No

Very cool. A couple more folks on the up and up who should be able to be trusted. I'd like to suggest to Ralph, Joshua, and Anne, that if any of you are chosen as Mayor tomorrow, you should not choose Lindsey as TCC tomorrow. Doing so will confirm you as scum. For whichever of you are town, I'm sorry that we can't trust you, but it should all work out in the end if can get the right people into the government. Do your part to help and we'll thank you later.

Thanks, Bob. I don't see any reason not to believe Lindsey and Patricia given that they passed a town policy.

Ah, yes. I forgot that Lindsey had been mayor but didn't show up.

Bob... are the people who've been mayor before excluded from the random selection process until everyone's had a chance? I know in Secret Hitler, the role moves linearly around the circle so everyone is involved. Joshua and Ralph have already been mayor, so depending on how Bob answers the question, we may only be at risk of Anne getting the mayor role among the 3 (1 in 6 chance).

No, there isn't. There are only two investigations and they've now been used. Robert's comment was that Joshua ran the risk of being investigated in the future. For Ralph, there's very little lost. Robert's point applies to Joshua but not to Ralph.

Excellent question... how would you answer it?

I would rather let the mayor(s) make their own decision on who the TCC should be, and then we vote on the combined panel. Hopefully, although I don't trust some of the quieter folks for this, they've been paying enough attention to the conversation to know how some of us feel about others. I don't want to steer the mayor's decision since we then learn less about what the mayor really thinks. The mayor's choice is as important as the card choice... perhaps more. It should be noted that Anne doesn't have to be the Godfather for both Joshua and Anne to be scum. I'm not sure that changes the picture much, if at all, but felt it was worth pointing out. I'm ready to move on to day 5.

My point is that a 1 in 3 chance of Anne being scum is still a very large chance. The odds that you got 3 scum cards and Ralph got 2 scum/1 town versus you got 2 scum/1 town and Ralph got 3 scum are not different enough to based any course of action on that would include either of you in an elected body. Heck, I'm the one most open to the idea that you both were telling the truth and got 3 scum cards each. Given one of you is scum it seems unlikely, but it's certainly possible. I'm disregarding the math because the odds are too close. If it was 1 in 20, that's a different story. It's not. I don't even know why you're arguing this point. You seem dead set on convincing the rest of us that you and Anne are both on the up and up rather than helping us with a more logical course of action that helps us understand the bigger picture. You've got tunnel vision on this particular issue. See, you're not even following your own theories properly. You stated that it would be silly for the scum team to set up Anne and then have her pass a scum policy this early. But the TCC doesn't control what cards they get as Michael has pointed out several times. Maybe you tried to set her up thinking there was no way she wouldn't get a scum policy from a townie Mayer but then the mayor got 3 scum cards and Anne was forced to pick a scum card after all. Heck, maybe it's driving you batty because you and Ralph both really did get 3 scum cards and there was nothing you could do about it. Because there's a really good chance that Anne is scum. I think it's at least 50/50, you say it's 33%. Either way, that's too much to risk when we have others who are much less likely to be scum and some who we still need to get any sort of read on because they haven't yet been part of a government.

Stop throwing math around like it's meaningful. 2/3, or whatever you claim the odds are on Anne, are not statistically significant enough to base a course of action on. If you and Anne are scum/Godfather, you had no way to control what cards Anne got from Ralph and it just didn't work out for you. Are you pushing Anne to be a future TCC then? Only early on. We've already passed the point of any more investigations happening. There's no longer the same level of risk. The TCC is not a pawn at all, although I do agree we need to be more mindful of the Mayor going forward. I still think it was a mistake for us to vote the early councils through so quickly. We lost the chance to see who other mayors would have nominated.

Ralph... no one thinks Bob lied to you about Joshua's affiliation. What everyone is questioning is whether or not you lied to us about what Bob told you. Or rather, more bluntly, that's exactly what Joshua is accusing you of. One of you is lying. It's basically impossible for us to know who. Tell us your thoughts on Edward or Lindsey or Robert, then. This is a bit disingenuous. A town TCC should almost never pass a mafia card. A scum TCC can simply argue the mayor lied about what was given to them. It sets up a conflict between the two, but that's not one that the TCC is necessarily going to come out of on the wrong side. It's a reasonable play, and you're smart enough to have thought of that already.

A little more research suggests the deck shuffling is inconsistently applied. Bob?

I'm willing to trust Lindsey moving forward. Patricia didn't get a chance to prove anything, which is both nice and unfortunate. I have to say, I find the percentages informative but ultimately distracting. No matter how low the odds, there is always a chance, and scum only lie when its beneficial. The point isn't what are the odds so much as the fact that we know one of Ralph or Joshua is scum. I'm happy to assume that whichever one of them is scum was lying and the other was telling the truth, but I'm open to the idea that they really did get 3 scum policies each even if they are scum. I don't much feel like trusting either of them with a position of power going forward as I don't know how we will figure out for sure which one it is in a way we can trust. Michael, I agree that Anne was certainly given 2 scum policies, but that doesn't mean anything about her alignment or what cards were discarded. Since either Ralph or Joshua are scum, Anne's alignment is in doubt. - If Joshua is scum, then Anne is probably scum, too. Ralph is therefore town and really did get 3 scum policies. Joshua may have tossed a town policy. - If Ralph is scum, then Anne is probably town. Joshua really got 3 scum policies and Anne really did get 2 scum policies. Ralph may have tossed a town policy. I don't think we can read much into Robert with either of these. Edward, we can't pass the remaining 5 policies by electing no one repeatedly. Once there are less than 3 policies in the deck, the discards get shuffled back in.

You could also state whether or not you agree with the analysis to this point or have any new thoughts to consider. That would be helpful. Just to be clear, I disagree with the first sentence in your post.

I don't think that was clear and I don't think that assigning it to one of them makes much sense, either. Unless you happen to know who was lying. The way it was reported is misleading at best. It seems extremely unlikely that both Joshua and Ralph are scum but it's clear that one of them is. We can't trust either of them at this point, and therefore, I don't feel comfortable with Anne in a position of power in the future either. The one person who comes out of this looking slightly better is Robert, who was the TCC under Joshua. Despite passing a Mafia card, it seems unlikely that Joshua would both pick him and Anne to clear. All of this makes me feel even better about Lindsey and Patricia as the current council. Those who have yet to be on a council: Scott, Erik, Michael, Christina (me).

Are you trying to deliberately mislead us by reporting the numbers in contradiction to what was posted? Are you in cahoots with Ralph and know that he got a town card which was discarded despite the fact that he reported 3 mafia cards?

Ralph... pay attention to what's going on! What were the three cards you were dealt yesterday?

If Ralph knows Anne is lying, then he can assume Joshua is scum.

I generally agree, but it does make sense that our host has to keep the game moving too. The level of engagement has been a bit disappointing. Bob, has Ralph made his investigation choice or is that still coming? I would propose our first Mayor as the target as a possibility. We could choose someone who has yet to be a council member too but that doesn't really confirm if we don't have additional info.

Ralph is lying whatever he claims.