fhomess

I tend to believe that the Doctor really was busy time traveling a lot over these last several days, so I don't put too much stock in the timing of most of her votes early on. Day 1 she voted for Moody, but if you look back at it, there wasn't much behind that vote. Could easily be a scum throwing a meaningless day 1 vote at a teammate. Could just as easily be a townie throwing a dart and hitting something. Her Day 2 and 3 votes were very late, bandwagon votes on claimed or investigated scum results. Nothing much there, and those were days where she was mostly absent. She didn't contribute during the earlier Day 2 push against Wonder Woman at all. Day 4 is really the first time that she made a key vote at a key time. Oroku's lynch was basically crawling and she pushed the lynch to within one vote of conviction. Something you hammered, by the way. Yesterday's 5th vote on Ellie has been discussed plenty. I don't have anything more to say about that hasn't been said by others. Overall, the Doctor coasted through the early days on anonymity and absence. I happen to agree with Superman that Barbossa was an odd choice of scum kill unless they knew something about him. However, being "the only one left" is a bit of an odd observation. The only other person to vote for Superman yesterday was Ellie, who we know was scum. We now know scum split their votes yesterday. We had this: It seems absurd to think that there would have been 2 scum on the Ellie bandwagon at that point since only 4 votes were needed to lynch. In the 3 scum case (yesterday's tally), then one of Superman or the Doctor are scum. In the 2 scum case, it could be anyone really, and we're back to reading behaviors or praying that there is still a town PR out there who can guide us. Today we're down to 2 scum or a 1 scum remainder. Any more and we'd be done by now. Due to what I've just said, I will likely cast my vote with Superman or the Doctor today.

I'm NOT DEAD, people! On the other hand, this type of thing does lead credence to the miller claim being true. I don't think Superman's behavior, and particularly his vote for Ellie yesterday, have anything in them to suggest that he should now be cleared as town. The vote was hedged and he really was more into lynching Barbossa. The fact that he cast the hammer vote on Ellie should be held to some extent in his favor. You merely secured it should someone drop off. The "Damned if you do, damned if you don't" line was something Superman said just the other day. You talk a lot about your lack of experience, but I'm not so sure we should believe that you are a simpleton.

I wouldn't say you went after Sattler hard. You went after Sattler in such a way that if she was voted out, you could jump on the bandwagon and look townie in the process. Barbossa was the one you went after hard. I'll be curious what the Joker has to say for himself as the third vote on Sattler. That's not a bad spot for scum to have been. The lynch still could've gone either way. Also of note... the Doctor was right about the scum splitting their vote. Perhaps he was annoyed because he knew it was true. /goes over and sits on a pizza box /looks at others staring at her What? They were getting cold!

Shoot, I totally forgot to sit on it after Day 2.

Sweet... Ellie was indeed scum as predicted. And despite Hera's efforts to convince us all otherwise, I'm still not dead. That's nice, too. Surprised the scum went after Barbossa. He was looking pretty scummy to me.

You're right about all of this. Yet you don't really address the case against Ellie. Anyway, let me walk through the notion that scum are likely to be splitting their votes. Assume for a moment that there are 3 scum remaining (I don't care too much about the neutral... that's just speculation), then it's LYLO. We lynch a scum or we lose. If a townie is lynched, we enter the night with 3 scum and 3 non-scum. If there's a neutral, the scum have won as they outnumber us. If not, then all they need to do is have their night kill be successful and/or survive the night. If we lynch no one, then the scum simply have to be successful at night and survive to win. That's why I think Barbossa's shock at the extra night kill is of particular interest. Assuming there are 2 scum remaining, then it's entirely possible they have split their votes, but at this point, the scummiest folks are all on Barbossa and Superman. Sure, the miller may be the issue, I'm willing to deal with that later. However, if there are only 2 scum remaining, then I think we can afford a mislynch in order to address the 3 scum remaining scenario.

You say you have a good town read on Barbossa and had a fairly high scum read on Oroku. This is an argument in favor of your scum read on Superman? I don't understand that. Superman struck me as more townie earlier in these proceedings but I agree that his comment yesterday to attack Barbossa if Oroku was town was a nice setup for his actions today. The vig request is interesting in light of how early it came in voting. That said, Barbossa's reaction to the night kills suggests he knew scum targeted Batgirl. It's entirely possible that Doc Brown was the scum kill and Batgirl was a vig or SK kill. Barbossa doesn't consider this at all. You are confident enough in your vote for Superman and your read of Dr. Who OVER Ellie that you do not wish to vote for Ellie. Noted. You're calling out Superman for note switching to Ellie, but you're doing the same thing, essentially. At this point, we've got Superman and the Doctor voting for Barbossa, and Ellie and Barbossa voting for Superman. I would expect that there's 2 scum on one of those and 1 scum on the other... I just happen to think there's 3 remaining, but would love to find out it's just 2. It obviously can't be 4. Both groups are refusing to vote for Ellie. Therefore, Ellie is scum and in cahoots with one or both of the others. I would not at all be surprised if the fourth of those folks is a neutral. I'm not entirely sold that Superman and Barbossa aren't both scum, but I'm willing to accept that for now.

No, but we have some time still to decide. Do you have reasons you do not want to vote for Sattler over Barbossa? Barbossa, what do you think of Ellie's case?

Hey! You're just defending Barbossa here! That said, you continue to be very reluctant to say how you feel about anybody. You continue to push on people without making any statements of your own. The pushing is fine... it's actually welcome, but you have to also share your own thoughts. First, I didn't like the fact that you left Doc Brown's vote off of your Oroku bandwagon listing. Maybe that was laziness, but the visual cue of having another townie in the last couple of votes would have been useful. Here's what it SHOULD look like: That took me all of 30 seconds to do. The nice thing about doing that is that you can now see that 2 of the last 4 voters were town quite easily. If you're town as you will undoubtedly claim, then 3 of the last 4. That lynch wagon probably doesn't get going unless the scum kick it. The Oroku bandwagon was based on relatively weak scum tells and the notion that Moody called Oroku out as a blocking target. Now that we know he's town, you can assume that was a scum ploy to get Oroku lynched. So you have to also then assume that some scum effort went into making sure that lynch got off the ground. You and the Joker are both potentials in terms of sealing the deal, but I'd bet there's two between the first three voters (assuming 3 scum, as Barbossa enjoys telling us his team size). As for those of us not on the bandwagon, you've got me and the Miller claim. It's unlikely we're both scum, so which of us is it? This is making me VERY nervous! What do you know about my life that I don't? Oroku did the same thing yesterday with Barbossa and was town... Now... for her general unwillingness to commit her own opinions to the public domain, for pushing the Oroku lynch into bandwagon territory, and for killing me before I'm dead... Vote: Ellie Sattler (LegoMonorailFan)

Well that's a spectacularly bad turn of events. We're likely going to have to lynch scum from here on out to win this thing. I want to hear from a few of the folks who haven't checked in yet. Oh wait, that's just me and Superman. So I think it's notable how Ellie is latching on to the Doctor's questioning of Hera and going after her there. The Doctor seems to be intentionally trying to avoid having anyone look at the bandwagon on Oroku in any detail as well, while Barbossa seems intent on ignoring yesterday entirely and looking back farther... or getting some PR results to inform his decision. Meanwhile, the Joker asks redundant questions to which there are no answers and Hera accuses the Doctor of killing everyone who voted for her, which... doesn't appear to have even happened. I need a vote gatling gun at this point. Personally, I think there's at least 2 scum on the Oroku bandwagon. Oroku was moderately scummy but this wasn't a case of a Finn who was super scummy and odd or of Mad-Eye who we had a result on. Both Ellie and the Doctor pushed Oroku hard on the reasoning behind his vote for Barbossa. As the one person beside Hera who didn't vote for Oroku, I agree with Hera's question of if we had switched our votes, would you not have called us out for a late switch? My vote wasn't needed on the bandwagon and I was happy to leave it with Doc Brown. Apologies... I accidentally pasted something at the end of my post that is completely unrelated to this. I thought I had deleted it before posting. If you're curiously what those numbers mean... it's related to a board game racing league and you can find it here.

Agreed on Barbossa and Oroku probably not both being scum. Joker has been coasting through on his wackiness. I don't take anything from the fact that he didn't unvote Moody on Day 2. He didn't say a word the rest of the day. Maybe he was concentrating on a good pirate prank against you. I just noticed that Batgirl's earlier vote on Day 2 was against the Joker after the Joker voted for Moody. I don't recall thinking much of it at the time, but now that we know Moody was indeed scum, it looks a bit suspect. Care to elaborate on why my comments convinced you Barbossa is scum? I made an observation about him, but didn't really make an accusation. I agree the Day 1 "bandwagon" wasn't you following. The fact that it was a throwaway vote actually makes me more suspicious of you because you really weren't trying to do anything with that vote. In fact, none of your votes appear to have any substance behind them. Ok, fair enough, the Finn and Moody votes were a bit self selecting. However, the Finn vote wasn't when you unvoted - you waited till Finn had really gone crazy. It loos a lot like you were waiting to see which way the wind blew so you could vote out whichever townie ended up being the lynch of choice. You didn't bother to tell us who you were suspicious of and you haven't done so this entire convention. Glad there's nothing serious going on.

Here's the Day 1 vote tally: And the mid-day vote tally for Day 2, taken at peak Wonder Woman voting: As well as the final vote tally for Day 2: So... what do I make of all this? Well, I do think that there's a scum on the Ellie bandwagon and at this point, I think it's Doc Brown. He's been largely absent was the first vote on Ellie on Day 1, then voted on the other two bandwagons as well. He's the only person on all 3 of those bandwagons. He's had a number of odd comments, including acting very surprised at how many votes Ellie got on Day 1 after he threw a vote her way. The other moment from him, which is a bit odder, IMO, was that he was fairly early to invite Wonder Woman but not commit to someone else. Vote: Doc Brown (Rider Raider) There's something odd in the timing of Oroku, Barbossa, and Moody's day 2 votes. They voted "together" on both the Wonder Woman and Finn bandwagons. I don't think all 3 are scum, but that's kind of weird. The other absentee is the 11th Doctor. He's basically just been showing up at the end to cast votes with very little to say during the rest of the days. That's not typically like him. It could be interpreted as scum trying to fly under the radar. I wouldn't terribly blame him for that, but that's not the kind of person I think he is.

Ok, this makes a bit of sense. I would trust the blocker if they say they blocked me on night 2. Given that Moody claimed blocker and was shown to be scum, it's extremely unlikely this other blocker is not town. It's normal to have a blocker on each side. Wonder Woman was certainly a scum kill as the voice of the town investigator that brought forward a valid scum investigation result. Legolas (jluck!) was probably a scum kill, too. The short of it is, I don't think you're being lied to and I think you did the right thing by bringing it forward publicly today. Given yesterday's result on Moody, it was reasonable to hold that information until now. Now that's an odd thing to say.

Moody being scum is a nice result and confirms the investigation result. I'm not scum, but naturally you would all expect me to say that regardless. The logical first question to ask is how would anyone know that I'm the scum killer. There are no roles that can determine both alignment and night action ability. Furthermore, we now know that the town investigator is accurate and gave us Moody. Either the source is lying directly, or the source is being lied to by someone else. That liar is scum. For the record, 3 doesn't make any sense. No townie would try to spread the rumor that another townie is scum. I don't fully follow the second part of #2. If the scum is telling you that I'm scum, then of course they want that passed along publicly so they can get a townie lynched.

This really does look odd. You spend the first half of your comment describing how reasonable it is to trust the investigative result and then hedge all of that at the end. I feel like you're trying to go out of your way to say you don't trust the result knowing that tomorrow you can pretend to be all glad when Moody miraculously turns out to be scum. SK isn't that uncommon, but it is less so in smaller conventions like this one. I would not have been surprised had there been one, but would have needed to see multiple kills at least once by now to think it was likely. I don't understand the desire to put the blame on WW's source. Both you and Superman have stated that you would do so and if Moody turns out to be town, then I would have reason to hold WW just as accountable for that as her source. I'd expect some real explaining. The two town block thing is interesting. A couple of things of note. First, I don't believe Moody claimed to be part of a town block. Second, the person other than Oroku who was blocked should jump immediately to the top of the suspect heap given there was no kill on night 2 and we have an investigative result against Moody. The fact that we have no counter claim on the investigation by this point suggests that the investigator is either true or dead. I think it's too early for the scum to have known he's dead. It could've been Legolas but the scum wouldn't know that, so there's no reason they'd fake an investigative result based on that. The only other person it could've been is Finn, if they role copped him night 1. Despite all of Finn's craziness, I would at least have expected him to have claimed that at the end. This is absolutely possible. Other types of investigative roles like Watcher and Tracker can sometimes lead players to form a block. However, these are usually the easier ones for scum to infiltrate as they don't reveal alignment. It's not uncommon for multiple small blocks to form early. There are frequently multiple blockers, but almost never of the same alignment. The notion that we have multiple blockers combined with Moody's reaction to the investigation is an indication to me that Moody is indeed the scum one. The scum certainly would not claim another blocker to you in order to save Moody. They might claim blocker to you in order to convict Moody, but that's kind of pointless since we're already going after Moody. Unless there's reason to think that the other blocker is really scum and likely to be outed in this process. That would get them ahead of the narrative, but it's probably safest just to let Moody get lynched and deal with it tomorrow. The neutral thing is indeed weird. The other thing that's a little weird about it is that the result was revealed right at the start of voting. Often that type of information is delayed some to see if any natural votes come through that are of interest. I've seen it both ways, though, and if the result is indeed anti-town instead of scum, then there was some sense in letting Moody have more time to react. Your last points here really convict Moody. Think about it... the scum aren't going to use two different gambits to convict Moody. Assume for a minute that the second blocker claim presented by Hera is scum. Well, that would mean that Moody is town and the investigation result is fabricated. Why would scum do that? Hera has stated that the alternate blocker claim came before Moody claimed publicly. So the scum would only use both methods of attack if they knew that Moody was the town blocker and his claim was going to reveal their blocker as scum (who has an in with a town block). But now they've got multiple people exposed in deceit when tomorrow's alignment is revealed. The false claim to WW (or WW herself) and the other blocker. Of course, it's possible that Moody is the town blocker and the scum didn't know that, but then why would they fabricate an investigation result against him versus someone else?

And how would you have known if you got an SK by blocking him twice? The way to test that is to not block him and see if there's an extra kill. Then you can start to think that maybe the night 1 block had an effect. Block him again and get no kill and you know nothing.

I completely agree that if you were neutral you would likely have claimed that early on and tried to convince us that you could win with us. I also completely believe that you are a blocker or in communication with one who blocked Superman and Oroku. However, blocking Superman night 1 and then blocking him again to test if he was a killer is complete nonsense. It's safe to assume that the night 1 kill was the scum kill and that the vig stayed home. That's typically what happens. Wanting to block Superman on night 2 suggests you only wanted to block the vig. The odds of a fake town block trying to fake out the townies isn't unheard of but it's not common that it happens this early. What's more common is that the scum somehow infiltrate the real town block through the means of some forced claims. Usually a watcher or tracker sees a scum doing something and they have to fake claim. However, it's far too early for scum to have convinced the town block of their trustworthiness. At this point, Wonder Woman is more likely to have legitimate information than to be lying. Scum have too much work to do still to make the timing right for such a gambit.

Not at all. More than happy to admit I was wrong about someone if the turn up differently. Nothing is certain as Finn has clearly revealed... although I have to say that's one of the most unexpected results I've ever experienced. My suspicion on Wonder Woman was largely based on voting patterns around Ellie on day 1. There wasn't a whole lot more to it, which is why I didn't cast a vote for her earlier in the day. Votes are never worthless, even with crazy claims like Finn's. The key events in the voting change over was Wonder Woman claiming that she was part of the town block and Oroku then switching her vote over. Rider Raider unvoted Wonder Woman but didn't vote immediately for Finn. Instead, choosing to think about who else to vote for. At this point, there wasn't a real bandwagon against Finn. Barbossa switch his vote over under the pretense of Finn fishing for role information. Mad-Eye was the next to switch over, citing similar reasons. I then switched my vote to Finn from Moody due to Finn's behavior and the fact that there was no other interest in voting for Moody. My primary goal yesterday was to get a lynch that at worst didn't hurt the town. At the time of my vote, Finn was up to 5 votes and Wonder Woman was down to 2, so the only legitimate lynch candidate at that point was Finn. There were just a few hours left. It was shortly after this that Finn went completely bonkers. Only then did Batgirl, Doc Brown (hammer vote), and Hera (safety vote?) get in on the action. In the last few minutes, Superman, Ellie, and the Doctor both joined in as well. And yeah... Vote: Mad-Eye Moody (mostlytechnic)

C'mon people. Let's get this done!

I think Finn is being more disruptive than anything at this point. I've been trying to give some of his erratic behavior the benefit of the doubt but I don't think there's much reason to continue based on his recent comments. The unsolicited claim doesn't sit well at all. So I don't mind joining this particular wagon, band or none. Unvote: Mad-Eye Moody (mostlytechnic) Vote: Finn (Foreman)

I realize I haven't voted for Wonder Woman either but those who are saying they don't trust the current trend of voting her out, you need to provide an alternative. I will switch my vote to her closer to the end of the day if that's what's needed to seal a lynch. I really don't know what to make of her insistence on the miller thing. It's nonsense and I wonder if a scum would stick with it. The rest of us have spread our votes around, which at this point is the best thing the scum could hope for so we need to get together on a name or two. Of those who have votes other than Wonder Woman, I'm happy to keep my vote on Mad-Eye or switch to Batgirl. I'm at a point where I don't have a strong enough opinion between them, but those are the two I suspect more than some of the others at the moment.

Where did I say you were being helpful? I don't recall saying that. You're the one who's been saying that: "Look how helpful I am!" "Don't look at my creepy eye..." Hear hear! Aren't we all 50/50? I would think by now you would vote for someone you have a stronger feeling on than a coin flip. Or do you think ALL the rest of us are more likely town than scum?

I want to call this out because I agree with it in principle. The Hera vote is getting talked about in this way and that gives the impression that it was a pretty decent bandwagon, so of course there's scum in there. The reality is, that there were only three people who voted for Hera. They were Finn, Ellie, and Mad-Eye, and that's a conveniently small group to look at. Because that group is small and because of the Miller claim, I think it's really unlikely more than one of them is scum. Just based on behavior at this point, I am inclined to think that any of them could be scum. I did find Ellie a bit contradictory yesterday, but she hasn't really said anything since that is making me take a stronger stance against her. Finn is being obstinate in his words, but not really his actions. Mad-Eye is probably the one of that group that I suspect the strongest right now. He just seems to be trying hard to convince us he's town. Plus, his eye is creeping me out. Vote: Mad-Eye Moody (mostlytechnic) FWIW, I agree with the True Pirate that we need a lynch today. At this point, I would not have any issue with his proposal of Wonder Woman (or Batgirl).

Oh, stop flirting. /grabs cube and carries it over to the other side of the room where she places it down and sits on it... by herself. I barely know you anymore. Wasn't hinting at anything beyond keeping my eye on Moody's eye. I never really think of Ellie Sattler as the type of person who plays the victim. I gotta say, it would be nice to hear some of your thoughts on people here. You know, who you find scummy, who you think isn't scummy... you know actually providing some substance to the conversation. /walks over to the food table /grabs a fanta and chugs it /walks over to Oroku /crushes can in hand and drops it at Oroku's feet I agree with Oroku that there are likely scum who were pushing on Hera and there are likely scum on the Ellie voting list, too. The scum almost certainly spread their votes out yesterday. There are no obvious places for scum on a day 1 vote that went as it did yesterday. FWIW, I don't buy into the 2nd or 3rd vote on a bandwagon thing being a good place to expect scum, particularly on a day 1 vote that didn't really go anywhere. At this point, everyone knows that's a suspicious place to be. WIFOM.

/grabs fresh slice of pizza /wanders over to Mad-Eye and peers oddly into his eye /jumps up and sits on strange cube in back corner of room