EB Xmas Raffle 2014 - Your Ideal Christmas Gift entry thread

[MAB]

So here's a interesting fact for you:

as the days pass your overall odds of winning go down since there are fewer days remaining. But your odds of winning on any given day go up since there are fewer contestants remaining in the raffle

Give that a thought...

The second statement is not quite true, mathematically speaking. The odds of winning on any given day only go up as time goes on if you haven't already won. If you have already been drawn, then your odds drop on the day after and then flatline at zero. It's all about conditional probability - you need the "haven't already won" statement for it to be true.

[Etzel]

It would be nice if you could update the first post with a link to the calender so we don't have to search through the pages to find it.

[Blakstone]

You could just bookmark it once you find it like I did. But having the link on the first page would be handy.

[floed]

Price are awesome Thanks CopMike

Congrat to the winners

[jluck]

The second statement is not quite true, mathematically speaking. The odds of winning on any given day only go up as time goes on if you haven't already won. If you have already been drawn, then your odds drop on the day after and then flatline at zero. It's all about conditional probability - you need the "haven't already won" statement for it to be true.

Fair point, I was looking at it from the angle of those still interested in the raffle, so they would fall under the condition of those who haven't won. Still, as a math teacher, I should have covered the statement completely

[Athos]

Yay! I won the Unikitty package. My daughter will be so excited! And I'm excited about Fabuland and Blacktron fan!

Steve

[ResIpsaLoquitur]

So if my math is right, everyone left has a 6/192 chance of winning tomorrow. Today, it was 6/198. Am I Right? :)

[Artanis I]

So if my math is right, everyone left has a 6/192 chance of winning tomorrow. Today, it was 6/198. Am I Right? :)

No because there are 7 winners per day, not 6.

---

So if you haven't yet won, your chances are:

1. 7/210 (1/30)

2. 7/203 (1/29)

3. 7/196 (1/28)

4. 7/189 (1/27)

...

11. 7/140 (1/20)

...

21. 7/70 (1/10)

...

24. 7/49 (1/7)

So don't feel too bad if you miss out!

Edited December 3, 2014 by Artanis I

[WhiteFang]

Can't believe I have won it too! The Guardians of the Galaxy is great! Loving it. Thank you so much, CopMike.

[jluck]

No because there are 7 winners per day, not 6.

---

So if you haven't yet won, your chances are:

1. 7/210 (1/30)

2. 7/203 (1/29)

3. 7/196 (1/28)

4. 7/189 (1/27)

...

11. 7/140 (1/20)

...

21. 7/70 (1/10)

...

24. 7/49 (1/7)

So don't feel too bad if you miss out!

But remember your overall odds of winning still quite high! I think someone said early on that everyone has a 80% chance of winning at the start of the raffle so your chances are now still around 73% or so, great odds!

[ResIpsaLoquitur]

No because there are 7 winners per day, not 6.

I can't count.

[Artanis I]

I think someone said early on that everyone has a 80% chance of winning at the start of the raffle

Sounds like a cool guy

[Praiter Yed]

What a pleasant surprise to find I've won this morning, and some Star Wars figs too !

Although I'll still check the advent calendar every day, It's a shame that I will no longer awake with the excitement/anticipation of seeing if I've been picked (there's no pleasing some people!)... I need to pick somebody else to root for.

Thanks again to CopMike for organising the raffle and to Sinner for technical wizardry. Good luck to everybody else, I'll be rooting for one of you.

[Sir Brickalot]

^ Ooo, ooo, root for me!

[Tuinman]

I hope I'm lucky enough to win something, doesn't really matter what prize.

Anyway, i had great fun (still have actually) with this raffle, so thanks CopMike.

[The Joker1]

Correct me if im wrong but the odds of winning decrease by about 3.3333333333333333333333333333333% per day (at a rough guess ) starting at exactly 80%, so the currenr chance is 70.000....1% chance of winning decreasing daily(if there was 210 at the start???) . Boring bit over, great prizes this year and i would love to win anything, Big thank you to CopMike again for all his hard work, really appreciate it .

Edited December 3, 2014 by The Joker1

[JGW3000]

Actually, the chances of "winning" on a given day go down by about 0.5% per day, initially, and then accelerates towards the end.

First day, 24*7 = 168 prizes, 210 entries = 80% chance of winning

removing won prizes and winners, second day 23*7 = 161 prizes, 203 entries remaining = 79.3 % chance of winning

Any case, I think we are all winners for having such an excellent website in Eurobricks, thanks CopMike for hosting the give-away!

Chances of winning on any particular day for those still have not won anything. Overall, the chances of winning remain 80 %

day chance

1 80.0

2 79.3

3 78.6

4 77.8

5 76.9

6 76.0

7 75.0

8 73.9

9 72.7

10 71.4

11 70.0

12 68.4

13 66.7

14 64.7

15 62.5

16 60.0

17 57.1

18 53.8

19 50.0

20 45.5

21 40.0

22 33.3

23 25.0

24 14.3

Edited December 3, 2014 by JGW3000

[jluck]

Actually, the chances of "winning" on a given day go down by about 0.5% per day, initially, and then accelerates towards the end.

First day, 24*7 = 168 prizes, 210 entries = 80% chance of winning

removing won prizes and winners, second day 23*7 = 161 prizes, 203 entries remaining = 79.3 % chance of winning

Any case, I think we are all winners for having such an excellent website in Eurobricks, thanks CopMike for hosting the give-away!

day chance

1 80.0

2 79.3

3 78.6

4 77.8

5 76.9

6 76.0

7 75.0

8 73.9

9 72.7

10 71.4

11 70.0

12 68.4

13 66.7

14 64.7

15 62.5

16 60.0

17 57.1

18 53.8

19 50.0

20 45.5

21 40.0

22 33.3

23 25.0

24 14.3

Look what i started with my (extremely suspect) math! guess I should have taken the time to actually run the numbers before I posted. This raffle has me checking in steadily, just to see who wins! I end up looking at everyone's builds several times, really some cool designs this year!

[ResIpsaLoquitur]

Isn't there a difference between your overall chance of winning and your chance on a particular day? I thought we established that the former goes down and the latter goes up. Your list there shows the former.

Day 4 winners:

4MKJosh

AAoNZ

Kristel

Peppermint_M

AndersI

VBBN

mechamike

[MKJoshA]

I won! So cool! Thanks CopMike!

[jluck]

Isn't there a difference between your overall chance of winning and your chance on a particular day? I thought we established that the former goes down and the latter goes up. Your list there shows the former.

You're exactly right. For example, on day one there are 168 prizes and 210 entries so the overall odds are 80% but your odds of winning on day 1 are 7 out of 210 or 3%. On day 2 there are 161 prizes and 203 eligible entries, so the odds are 79% but your daily odds are now 7 out of 203 or 3.4%.

For those curious, tomorrow's odds of winning are 7 out of 182 or 3.8%, but don't worry, you still have a 76.9% chance of winning this year

Congrats to all the lucky ones so far!

[Sir Brickalot]

Gosh, I hope I win. Some really great prizes there!

[Praiter Yed]

^ I hope you win too! I'm rooting for you

[Lego Spy]

I hope I win too!

Edit: Anyone know how CopMike affords all these figures? Does he purchase them himself? (Or are some of them from TLG?)

Values on Bricklink:

Prize A = ~$64

Prize B = ~$31

Prize C = ~$73

Prize D = ~$49 (Didn't realize which Batman that was. )

Prize E = ~$50

Prize F = ~$50

Prize G = ~$25

Assuming there's 24 of each prize, the total would be around $8208. Yeah...

Edited December 4, 2014 by Lego Spy

[ResIpsaLoquitur]

Well, that's aftermarket value. The cost to TLG is whatever plastic and printing costs the figures have. So, $3-4 US per figure, plus the Unikitties.