Unrest in the Forest - Day 3: Caress of Steel

[Hinckley]

Well I was looking at some people's post from yesterday and found out that Peter has hardly talked.

He didn't give any reasons of his own apart from the ones that Sue gave. This struck me as odd and pinged me.

These were two fluff posts from Day 2, no real suspicions or anything either.

I don't feel too suspicious of you but it seems like you are trying to hide away from everyone else and not be noticed.

Vote: Peter Cedar (badboytje88)

I would like to hear from you more.

As pointed out, it's odd that you don't feel "too suspicious" of him. Isn't there enough activity surrounding other people for you to add some insight? Let alone answer to what Nash has said about you.

I'm interested to see your explanation of Bruce's behavior, care to explain?

Also, I'm pretty sure that what Bobby did was a mistake, he did that in the last mafia game.

I am going to have to disagree with this vote and statement. I also don't see why calling out people talking about game mechanics would be maple-y. I see that more of just a suspicion an oak would do.

I don't find any of your reasons really helpful either.

I'm finding my original reason for voting parroted, but it's the two quotes above. Again, to be clear, I'm not saying he's defending Scum, I'm saying it's odd to defend anybody. I've fallen into and seen this Scum mindset before. Be helpful by defending people because you can see, clearly–as Scum–that the accusation is false, so you defend to appear helpful. Ignore the defense about the edited post. I get more of a ping for him defending Bruce. The two posts are very close to each other, so I felt this was the Scum-Defense-Mode I'm referring to.

I see where you are coming from but I'm not trying to defend them, I'm just curious about those two votes because I don't find those two people suspicious. As for my vote, no one has struck me as scum yet

It pinged me that he is countering suspicions this early in the game.

Much like others have stated, it looks like you are trying to save your self image and not look maple-y I front of others. This is not something an oak would do either. Your suspicion about Bobby also pinged me a bit. It seems like it was just a mistake and you casted a suspicion on him. So my vote for today goes to you;

Vote: Chester Chestnut (Lego Spy)

I'm satisfied with my vote right now and don't plan on changing it. If a vote gets needed for a lynch on Alastair Pear, then I will vote for her since 13 votes are needed to lynch someone and a lynch will give us some more info to go off on for Day 2.

I don't really suspect Alastair, but there was this one post that kinda pinged me;

He's basically trying to say that because you are quiet, you are scum which isn't really a good skill especially on Day 1. It also looks like he is saying "hahahaha, when I'm dead and the rest of you die because of this, you are all going to be sorry," which isn't so much of a good oaky thing to say either, but it has been this post tht has bothered me.

While he never takes his vote off of Chester, he suggests changing it to Alastair, just to get a lynch, even though he doesn't find him suspicious.

I found this from Chester while I was searching:

If I was a Maple, why would I go right out and say that? The main reason I didn't vote at the time was because 2-3 other people had voted for Alastair within an hour of my posting. So you're telling me that wouldn't look like some sort of arranged Maple attack, or that I had been attempting to hide my vote?

It is strange that you would be worried that people would perceive an arranged Maple attack. Wouldn't the person being voted for have to be an Oak for it to be perceived that way? Sounds like you possibly knew Alastair's affiliation. Otherwise, it's a very paranoid concern.

I did want to repost this idea of mine from Day One.

I'm more than aware. But sometimes, Scum teams try to avoid voting their own members especially early in the game. It's not a great move, but it's possible. The momentum on Alastair was slow. It might've built slowly and got out of their control before they could join. And joining late or hammering him might seem like a bad idea to them. Especially since momentum has halted, they're very unlikely to join it now, again if Alastair is even Scum. But, if he is Scum and he had to appeal to the Town to stop the "bandwagon" it may tell us a lot about who voted. I've played a couple of games on both sides of the aisle...

Scum might jump on the bandwagon for one of their own if the lynch is inevitable, if there's a night action result that catches them or an investigation or they're caught in a lie. If he's Scum, they might not have had a chance to plan. Or they can't unvote until Townies do.

Of course, a lot of this remains to speculation since we don't know Alastair's affiliation.

and we're not stupid enough to go around shouting out roles...so...

This has not been the experience so far...

So would saying that whatever the stump receives from the tree, if at all, should just be considered void? I'm sure someone may have sent a stump a message simply because of the question.

It's against the rules, yes, ignore the PM. And we should not be breaking rules, that's simple sportsmanship. Living players can't PM the stumps, am I right?

Also, we need to pursue this janitored/not janitored situation. Was the day one lynch scum? If so, that's huge! I think it's an issue that needs to be revisited. There's unanswered questions that could really be useful to have answers to.

Of course it would be useful to know. How do you propose we "pursue" it? What way is there for us to find out?

[Lady K]

Fair point. Look, the stumps are a huge advantage, so we've gotta take advantage of it. If we go with the codes, we gotta go all in. That means everyone needs to share with the stumps. If only a few people don't, then the whole system is broken. Also, we need to pursue this janitored/not janitored situation. Was the day one lynch scum? If so, that's huge! I think it's an issue that needs to be revisited. There's unanswered questions that could really be useful to have answers to.

I am very interested as to why you are back pushing for the codes and the whole janitor situation. All this is doing is distracting oaks from finding maples. There is nothing we oaks can gain from either of these topics.

The stumps are doing something; we are working together to find and oust the maples while the living trees are back to distraction and arguing amongst themselves.

[jluck]

I am very interested as to why you are back pushing for the codes and the whole janitor situation. All this is doing is distracting oaks from finding maples. There is nothing we oaks can gain from either of these topics.

The stumps are doing something; we are working together to find and oust the maples while the living trees are back to distraction and arguing amongst themselves.

Would you not agree that if everyone claimed to the stumps it would be useful?? We put the system in place for a reason, the only reason it won't work is if we abandon it at the moment we are ready to utilize it.

[Hinckley]

Would you not agree that if everyone claimed to the stumps it would be useful?? We put the system in place for a reason, the only reason it won't work is if we abandon it at the moment we are ready to utilize it.

We were attempting that but I think people lost confidence in the idea, for good reason, when Lauren displayed her recklessness with the information.

[jluck]

We were attempting that but I think people lost confidence in the idea, for good reason, when Lauren displayed her recklessness with the information.

Ya, that was unfortunate.

But we can't go back to square 1. IF Lauren was completely accurate and honest with what (s)he said, it would only out vanilla players. With so few players having claimed, it's not an end all. If we discard the codes, the scum can hide behind not claiming along with everyone else. If everyone claims, at least we lock people into there word early.

[Hinckley]

Ya, that was unfortunate.

But we can't go back to square 1. IF Lauren was completely accurate and honest with what (s)he said, it would only out vanilla players. With so few players having claimed, it's not an end all. If we discard the codes, the scum can hide behind not claiming along with everyone else. If everyone claims, at least we lock people into there word early.

That assumes all the claims were accurate. I don't think Lauren understand what she did wrong. I'd like to be able to utilize what we started, but it may be risky. Think about how detrimental the mistake that's already been made can be for us.

[Tamamono]

Not worth the risk.

[MagPiesRUs]

No one has ever claimed that these codes are 100% guaranteed to work. But there is no reason not to try it. The trees who are constantly doubting the codes are the ones who are muddying up the day threads. There is nothing to debate here. There is nothing to lose. There is no reason not to try it. It takes 20 minutes tops to compile a bunch of codes, even less now that about half the trees have sent you codes already.

I hadn't taken into account a stump deciding to publicly spill the beans, but I'm sure they will be more careful from this point on.

Once everyone has used their code to claim to the stumps, the stumps can sort them out and pass the information on to a trusted oak (eg. the investigator, provided there's no counter-claim), who can choose what to do with it from there. Obviously we can't make use of the info today, since not everyone sent in codes. But if everyone sends them by tonight, we'll be able to take advantage of it tomorrow.

I agree with the suspicions against Larry Larch. The way he "caught Catarina in a lie" is particularly weird. Why Catarina would deliberately lie about being the only person accused yesterday? That makes even less sense than lying about preferring low light. And that is the only reason Larry provides for voting for Catarina, aside from because "we need a lynch".

For now though, I will Vote: Bobby Beech (Lord Duvors), for being aggressively apathetic.

[Hinckley]

Would this be considered an "appeal to emotion"?

No I am not, indeed, I'm not certain of what I am trying to do any more, and I don't really have any opinions on anything either. So ech, kill me if you want, I don't care anymore. I try to play these games but it seems I just can't.

[fhomess]

I am still here! Poor Alastair is the only one who's not still here in some form or another.

Would this be considered an "appeal to emotion"?

It really depends a bit on how you want to read it, doesn't it? It strikes me that it's one of those things that's prone to confirmation bias in the scope of what else has been said.

[badboytje88]

I was trying to say that I felt suspicious of him but wasn't 100% sure that he was scum, he's quiet in the games he plays but in this one it seems like he is trying to hide.

I know I am one of the more quit players but that doesn't mean I am not playing my part. And the same does not only go for me it goes for a multiple of other players. One of them being Bobby Beech. Although I agree with all of your reasons to vote for Lary Larch I am not sure if I will end up voting for him or voting for Bobby Beech.

[Zepher]

I had every reason to believe he was town. I would not have put you in jeopardy otherwise. You're worrying about this way too much.

You're way too curious about this. Want to know what roles you need to kill, scummy? Your fishing won't fool me, bud.

Why is no one allowed to scrutinize your actions? You act as if Oaks trying to reason things out for themselves in a bad thing.

Got it. You were investigated by a third party, then went asking Simon to tell us the good news.

Thank you, I'm not insane, it makes no sense, right?

Look, you and your scum buddies are a little too eager to know what happened. By trying to classify it as one way or another, you are inadvertently giving scum information. The bottom line is that Simon and I are both confirmed town, and you should trust and respect that.

Your complete refusal to accept Occam's Razor is indicative of you being scum. The bottom line is that Simon and I are confirmed town and about to steamroll you and the rest of your scummy pals right out of town.

But we only have your word for it. We have your word that Simon is an oak and vice versa. You act as if not accepting that at face value is the absolute worst thing! But it would sound ridiculous to you too, I'm sure.

Please point out where I've ever asked anyone to follow me. I think being investigated to be sure that even Bruce and the investigator weren't following me blindy shows that I expect that of nobody.

I think the confusion is that people are merging some of your posts with some of Bruce's posts in their little tree brains. Bruce has indeed begged the town to follow him blindly. I don't believe you have, or at the very least not in the same aggressive and nasty way.

Awesome, thanks. Finally we can stop outing vanillas and start lynching scum now!

Lynch a scum already, then. Or, you know, post something useful other instead of "no" and "stop thinking".

Question: Do we think there is a way for the scum to appear as "oak" stumps? Could that be how they are balanced? Still no one has commented on what they might have to assist them in the place of our stumps. Some of the stumps have continued to ping me. If all deaths tomorrow show up Oak... I don't know. It might be a crazy theory. I hope it is. But I'm just trying to imagine what they might be able to do to counter-act our potential advantage (though the stumps haven't really proven much of an advantage so far in all honesty, so perhaps nothing)!

[StickFig]

We have your word that Simon is an oak and vice versa.... Bruce has indeed begged the town to follow him blindly.... the stumps haven't really proven much of an advantage so far....

The Simon/Bruce/???? love triangle is really just ridiculous. Literally the only reason we have for believing those claims is that no one has counter-claimed. Which is also the only reason we have for believing the miller claim. Which might be enough, or we might all be suckers.

Another thought: late on Day One, I PMed a few people and said (among other things) that I was suspicious of Bruce. Would that have been enough to make scum want to take me out, if he's one of them?

[JackJonespaw]

Question: Do we think there is a way for the scum to appear as "oak" stumps? Could that be how they are balanced? Still no one has commented on what they might have to assist them in the place of our stumps. Some of the stumps have continued to ping me. If all deaths tomorrow show up Oak... I don't know. It might be a crazy theory. I hope it is. But I'm just trying to imagine what they might be able to do to counter-act our potential advantage (though the stumps haven't really proven much of an advantage so far in all honesty, so perhaps nothing)!

I can't see that happening, mainly because that would take us all the way back to square one, and no one would trust the stumps. It's absolutely possible, but with a very thing margin of reality. Here's hoping that one of the lynches or deaths shows up as Maple, so we know what's going on - because right now what happens to a dead scum is completely in the dark.

[mostlytechnic]

Once everyone has used their code to claim to the stumps, the stumps can sort them out and pass the information on to a trusted oak (eg. the investigator, provided there's no counter-claim), who can choose what to do with it from there. Obviously we can't make use of the info today, since not everyone sent in codes. But if everyone sends them by tonight, we'll be able to take advantage of it tomorrow.

Seriously, why are some of you so dead set against the codes? Here's what SHOULD be happening, if everyone had participated. Today, everyone claims their role to the stumps. Then they can look at the list. Hey, there's one person claiming blocker. We probably do have a blocker, so that's probably true. There's 1 person claiming vig, so that's probably true too. Etc. They could then guide the inveistigator to look into the vanillas, since that's probably where the scum are hiding. Narrow down the list of investigator targets significantly. Ditto for blocker, protector, whatever else we have. And frankly, tell the vig to target any of the vanilla. Either we'd lose a vanilla, or we'd get a maple. Worth the risk if you can narrow down the list by a third or so (AND know that the PRs are not being targeted), since we have a number advantage.

I just don't get why people don't see the HUGE advantage we have, since on day 2 and day 3 we already have a group of absolutely confirmed oaks. That is massive, and so I know in my gut the maples must have a big counter advantage to balance. That means if we're not using our weapons correctly, we'll be dead. And the maples will get all the sunlight because we'll just be decomposing fertilizer for them. Or maybe furniture somewhere, I'm not sure what the lumberjacks do with our bodies...

[Hinckley]

I think the confusion is that people are merging some of your posts with some of Bruce's posts in their little tree brains. Bruce has indeed begged the town to follow him blindly. I don't believe you have, or at the very least not in the same aggressive and nasty way.

Because the investigator has confirmed two Oaks, we don't have Night Action results that indicate any Scum yet. So, I am drawing conclusions based on people's posts and my own instincts and analysis. I don't necessarily want anyone following that at this point. Being confirmed as an Oak doesn't mean knowing who the Scum are.

Lynch a scum already, then. Or, you know, post something useful other instead of "no" and "stop thinking".

I'll admit that Bruce's attitude is less than desirable. However, being confirmed as Oak doesn't give us the ability to read minds. It does not give us the ability to see the game any clearer than you do. At the moment we have the same information the rest of the Oaks have in order to inform a lynch plus the identities of a couple of power roles. When we come up with information that leads to a Maple lynch, we'll be sure to be clear about it.

Question: Do we think there is a way for the scum to appear as "oak" stumps? Could that be how they are balanced? Still no one has commented on what they might have to assist them in the place of our stumps. Some of the stumps have continued to ping me. If all deaths tomorrow show up Oak... I don't know. It might be a crazy theory. I hope it is. But I'm just trying to imagine what they might be able to do to counter-act our potential advantage (though the stumps haven't really proven much of an advantage so far in all honesty, so perhaps nothing)!

Of course Scum could have a way to tamper with investigations. And it's funny you say that, because some of the stumps ping me too and I was also considering the same crazy theory. Is there any precedent for a Mafia role that causes a dead player's affiliation to be hidden and then obscures the remaining night results?

The Simon/Bruce/???? love triangle is really just ridiculous. Literally the only reason we have for believing those claims is that no one has counter-claimed. Which is also the only reason we have for believing the miller claim. Which might be enough, or we might all be suckers.

Also, there doesn't need to be a Miller, so even without a counterclaim, he could still be lying. It's a good role for a Scum to claim. As pointed out, he did claim it late in the day after he aroused some suspicion. He did also come to me asking for the identity of the bomb claimant. I admit this ping has been a slow burn. He asked me this early on Day Two. The more I consider everyone, the more suspicion Berty seems.

[jluck]

(Snip)

Of course Scum could have a way to tamper with investigations. And it's funny you say that, because some of the stumps ping me too and I was also considering the same crazy theory. Is there any precedent for a Mafia role that causes a dead player's affiliation to be hidden and then obscures the remaining night results?

Wait, this could be possible?! That would ruin everything. Wouldn't it swing the game too far to a scum advantage? Unless the host didn't consider the whole code situation. It's at least plausible...and might explain the absence of a janitors action last night.

[Hinckley]

Seriously, why are some of you so dead set against the codes? Here's what SHOULD be happening, if everyone had participated. Today, everyone claims their role to the stumps. Then they can look at the list. Hey, there's one person claiming blocker. We probably do have a blocker, so that's probably true. There's 1 person claiming vig, so that's probably true too. Etc. They could then guide the inveistigator to look into the vanillas, since that's probably where the scum are hiding. Narrow down the list of investigator targets significantly. Ditto for blocker, protector, whatever else we have. And frankly, tell the vig to target any of the vanilla. Either we'd lose a vanilla, or we'd get a maple. Worth the risk if you can narrow down the list by a third or so (AND know that the PRs are not being targeted), since we have a number advantage.

If the point was to guide the vig and investigator to the vanilla claims...hasn't that been accomplished?

Wait, this could be possible?! That would ruin everything. Wouldn't it swing the game too far to a scum advantage? Unless the host didn't consider the whole code situation. It's at least plausible...and might explain the absence of a janitors action last night.

Possible but unlikely. But don't mix my two answers together. There is precedence in larger games for Scum to have a framer that targets a player to make them appear the opposite of their allegiance to an investigator. The idea of the night results being messed with could be a unique concept from Alder or another type of role we haven't seen here yet.

[Walter Kovacs]

Voting Update:

Larry Larch (TheLazyChicken) - 4 (Zepher, Hinckley, Tamamono, Bob)

Bobby Beech (Lord Duvors) - 2 (Scaevola, TinyPiesRUs)

Peter Cedar (badboytje88) - 1 (TheLazyChicken)

There are 32 Hours left in Day 3. It takes 10 Votes to lynch.

[Lady K]

Wait, this could be possible?! That would ruin everything. Wouldn't it swing the game too far to a scum advantage? Unless the host didn't consider the whole code situation. It's at least plausible...and might explain the absence of a janitors action last night.

I still think too much time is being wasted on these codes and the janitor action. We aren't getting anywhere closer to finding the scummy maples. So back to the old fashioned way, look at voting trends, posts from first day, who did the verified oaks think was scum and why, who was aggressively or actively accusing the oaks......All you have to go on is what we have had in previous games, the alignment of night kills and lynches (except for Alistair) of Day 1 and Day 2. And the added benefit that we stumps can still actively contribute to the thread. As I said, I will be posting my thoughts on the voting patterns later today after I have finished looking at all the possibilities.

As for Alistair, I still think he could be a maple revive (who can participate on the scum board but not day thread) or wandering spirit.

[TheLazyChicken]

I still think too much time is being wasted on these codes and the janitor action. We aren't getting anywhere closer to finding the scummy maples. So back to the old fashioned way, look at voting trends, posts from first day, who did the verified oaks think was scum and why, who was aggressively or actively accusing the oaks......All you have to go on is what we have had in previous games, the alignment of night kills and lynches (except for Alistair) of Day 1 and Day 2. And the added benefit that we stumps can still actively contribute to the thread. As I said, I will be posting my thoughts on the voting patterns later today after I have finished looking at all the possibilities.

But the codes are supposed to help us see who is scum, isn't that point of them?

[mostlytechnic]

Of course Scum could have a way to tamper with investigations. And it's funny you say that, because some of the stumps ping me too and I was also considering the same crazy theory. Is there any precedent for a Mafia role that causes a dead player's affiliation to be hidden and then obscures the remaining night results?

Sure, there's scum roles that mess with investigations (framer, godfather...). However, I can't see anything that would change a revealed role after a death. That would make the Alder untrustworthy, and the game would cease to work if the players can't trust him. Seriously, the core of the game is learning affiliations after kills, so if that can't be believed, the whole thing falls apart.

See for example the "death miller" version at this link: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Miller

It's a HIGHLY frowned upon version because it makes the mod not trusted. In fact, they've got a whole page over there on the topic (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Bastard_Mod) and it's best said as "A common shorthand definition of a bastard mod game is that it is designed mostly for the moderator's amusement more than that of the players." Since that's not how we do things here, I can't see the stumps as being anything other than true Oaks. And that's the only realistic way to treat them going forward. Any knowledge I get will be shared with them so they can pull everything together - same as if I had a trusted town block to share with.

[Hinckley]

Sure, there's scum roles that mess with investigations (framer, godfather...). However, I can't see anything that would change a revealed role after a death. That would make the Alder untrustworthy, and the game would cease to work if the players can't trust him. Seriously, the core of the game is learning affiliations after kills, so if that can't be believed, the whole thing falls apart.

See for example the "death miller" version at this link: http://wiki.mafiascu...hp?title=Miller

It's a HIGHLY frowned upon version because it makes the mod not trusted. In fact, they've got a whole page over there on the topic (http://wiki.mafiascu...tle=Bastard_Mod) and it's best said as "A common shorthand definition of a bastard mod game is that it is designed mostly for the moderator's amusement more than that of the players." Since that's not how we do things here, I can't see the stumps as being anything other than true Oaks. And that's the only realistic way to treat them going forward. Any knowledge I get will be shared with them so they can pull everything together - same as if I had a trusted town block to share with.

Precisely. That's why it was more worth mentioning because Nash and I thought of the same possibility. But, as he said, it's a crazy theory. Yes, new hosts like to try new things, but let's not metagame the host. It is Only Day Three. There's no need to panic...yet...that we haven't turned up a Scum corpse. It's early and we can just now start trying to piece things together with the Night Actions who are coordinating. And just because we have two confirmed Oaks doesn't mean other people shouldn't be looking at the previous day threads looking for Scum. We're confirmed, that doesn't mean the host PMed us a list of who is on which side. We're all still pretty much in the same boat.

[jimmynick]

Sure, there's scum roles that mess with investigations (framer, godfather...). However, I can't see anything that would change a revealed role after a death. That would make the Alder untrustworthy, and the game would cease to work if the players can't trust him. Seriously, the core of the game is learning affiliations after kills, so if that can't be believed, the whole thing falls apart.

If everyone flips Oak... ... but let's get some maples! I'm going to Vote: Larry Larch (TheLazyChicken) for all the reasons I and others (Nash, Simon) have given, as well as that very scummy vote for Peter that Larry made earlier.

Seriously, why are some of you so dead set against the codes? Here's what SHOULD be happening, if everyone had participated. Today, everyone claims their role to the stumps. Then they can look at the list. Hey, there's one person claiming blocker. We probably do have a blocker, so that's probably true. There's 1 person claiming vig, so that's probably true too. Etc. They could then guide the inveistigator to look into the vanillas, since that's probably where the scum are hiding. Narrow down the list of investigator targets significantly. Ditto for blocker, protector, whatever else we have. And frankly, tell the vig to target any of the vanilla. Either we'd lose a vanilla, or we'd get a maple. Worth the risk if you can narrow down the list by a third or so (AND know that the PRs are not being targeted), since we have a number advantage.

If Lauren says that there have been claimed investigators and blockers, well, we already know which 9 people claimed vanilla, so then the scum get a roadmap to the PRs.

[Tamamono]

Why is no one allowed to scrutinize your actions? You act as if Oaks trying to reason things out for themselves in a bad thing.

It isn't pro-town. Scrutinize someone you'll get something from instead.

But we only have your word for it. We have your word that Simon is an oak and vice versa. You act as if not accepting that at face value is the absolute worst thing! But it would sound ridiculous to you too, I'm sure.

No, it wouldn't. Who would come out claiming to be cleared on Day 2 as scum? That'd be just asking to get lynched immediately.

It's time for you and your friends to put aside conservative play in return for logical play. Would I play this way as scum - a way that puts me out in the front whilst claiming that a cop has confirmed me? Probably not.

And then for Foog's terrible "Alastair was the cop" idea - start at least trying to employ Occam's Razor. Use your heads.

I think the confusion is that people are merging some of your posts with some of Bruce's posts in their little tree brains. Bruce has indeed begged the town to follow him blindly. I don't believe you have, or at the very least not in the same aggressive and nasty way.

I haven't anyone to follow me blindly. I've asked for claims as a confirmed townie, yeah. That's so unlike anything that's ever been done in these games. I'm such an aggressive, nasty trailblazer.

I'm starting to think you're just jealous because the cop confirmed me and not you.

Lynch a scum already, then. Or, you know, post something useful other instead of "no" and "stop thinking".

Don't try to strawman me, because I'll catch onto it. My posts to you and the rest of the others amount to a call to employ some real logic instead of paranoia. This is not the same thing as you're claiming in any way, shape, or form.