Unrest in the Forest - Day 4: 2112

[Walter Kovacs]

Voting Update:

Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath) - 3 (jamesn, Goliath, mostlytechnic)

Peter Cedar (badboytje88) - 2 (Bob, TinyPiesRUs)

Chester Chestnut (Lego Spy) - 1 (Dragonfire)

Maggie Magnolia (Calanon) - 1 (fhomess)

Simon Persimmon (Hinckley) - 1 (Scubacarrot)

There are 11 Hours, 30 minutes remaining in Day 4. It takes 8 votes to lynch.

[Dragonfire]

But why a hammerer in this forest? It's a bigger deal in other forests on other continents (I think it's called mafiascumasia or something like that) because the whole setup is different. There is not a fixed time to end the day; it ends when anyone is hammered. So the effect there is that someone votes someone to the point of being one vote short of being lynched (and therefore ending the day) and it's a surprise when suddenly it's over and the lynchee is lynched sooner than expected.

In THIS forest, how often does it happen that someone is one vote shy of being lynched at the end of the day? Pretty darn rare. So I just don't see a hammerer having much effect here.

That said, now I'm doing some serious WIFOM because I was coming here all prepared to go build a case against hazel and attempt to see her lynched. Is it possible after the aborted attempt against me that she saw the writing on the wall and IS a scum making a desperate play to stick around?

This is either bad town play, or a desperate scum. Either way, I am ok with supporting Hazel's move.

Vote: Hazel Hazelnut (goliath)

I think a hammerer is unlikely in this forest as there has never been one before in any forest in this continent. I also think Hazel is a townie who is simply giving up. We've seen this behaviour from Bobby before and he was vig-killed, and turned up Oak....

By the way, here's a list of people who still don't appear to have claimed codes publicly:

Bob and Goliath - These two have acted confused about them and have claimed that they won't work. I am baffled that they don't seem to have made any attempt to understand the significance of the codes. Possibly scum riding on the back of other's confusion, or possibly just very lazy oaks...

LegoSpy - Has made no mention at all of the code idea. Completely ignored them.

badboytje - Sent codes out but sabotaged them by giving the same ones to each person; doesn't seem to have made any attempt to correct this.

fhomess and Calanon - Both have openly supported the use of codes, yet have not actually claimed any publicly. Why is this?

Isn't that a surprise? The two scummiest people not using codes. Hmmm....

Adelaide, I would have voted for one of them but I just can't make a strong case against them. That makes me pretty useless, wouldn't you say? What makes the difference if I'm gone anyway?

Jack, I was also hoping you might say something like that.

Why don't you look up all their posts and compile them into a case?

So the vig has been active every night? So unless there is no serial killer, another killer was blocked/protected against on the first two nights?

The vig targets do confuse me. If Simon is telling the truth about the Vig killing Bobby, and if Barry was scum, then who killed Barry?

If there is a SK and it's not Barry, then it is likely that it was the scum who was blocked for two of the nights. I can see Lauren and Vicky as being good SK targets. but not so good scum targets.

Hot dang I wish someone would vote against you already.

Yep, he's a maple.

I'm voting him. Why do you think he's a Maple?

Also, who did Clem investigate, Bruce or Simon? Clem, is there anyone you're sure is an oak? Should the stumps start sending their info back to a trusted living oak via code, or does no one want to risk sending it to a possible scum?

From what Simon said in-thread, I believe that Clem investigated Bruce and Investigator 2, and got a town result on both of them. Investigator 2 investigated Simon, Clem and a random other tree.

I thought I had sent a code in. Vicky, I'm a 52.

As for a vote today, if Barry didn't want to kill Maggie according to Berty, and we all think Barry was scum, shouldn't that suggest something?

Vote: Maggie Magnolia (Calanon)

But if the Vig killed Bobby, the scum killed Clem and Barry was scum, then it is quite possible that Barry didn't have a kill action other than the scum's factional kill, and the scum used it on Clem. Barry said he was going to kill Bobby, but he didn't. He was just misleading us all.

It's all a matter of WIFOM. And since Maggie was mentioned by Bruce, it's possible Barry didn't really offer an opinion, just switched to saying Bobby since he knew Bobby was dead and didn't want to implicate his teammates by claiming Clem as his target. It'd help if we could nail down the timelines of the weird things Barry said. If we could all focus for a second instead of spouting off weird theories about a hammerer... ...Sorry.

But, I wouldn't miss Maggie and it's at least something to go on.

The Barry theory is interesting...

I'll try to dig out all the timelines and stuff.

Well I wanted to get one player to speak up so I poked hom. Later I switched cause he defended himself, we needed a lunch and I thought the other player was a better target. Was I right? No! Was I the only one? No!

You only switched your vote because people were accusing you of being scummy by voting Bobby. Bobby made no kind of plausible defence; I can't imagine what you saw in it.

It doesn't look it was Bobby's defense that convinced Peter to switch votes. It looks to me like he was pressured into changing his vote. If I was a gambling tree, I'd bet that you would've been content with your vote if no one had called you on it.

I agree.

Of the stumps today, only one of them I shared codes with. Will read through the thread a bit later.

Larry: Ice cream

Thanks for your insight, O great one. Will you deign to respond to the suspicions of others, or are they beneath you?

[Zepher]

I will vote:

Vote: Peter Cedar (badboytje88).

Hazel's move looks to me like a sapling that has gotten tired of defending itself. Spent too much time in the sun. Peter, on the other hand, does seem to be flying under the radar and bouncing around randomly. I think it's a good case against him. I'd also be happy with a Chester lynch, but with 11 hours left and the activity of some of these trees I'd rather not further scatter votes.

activity = participation level, just to clarify my wording

[Dragonfire]

OK. Here are the times, Simon. They are all in English/UK time. You'll have to convert them into your time.

11th February 00:05 am : William claims his role to me and tells me about his mutual kill deal with Simon

11th February 03:15 pm : Barry tells me that William has claimed to him, and then strongly hints that he is the bomb. He also says that he finds William's claim suspicious.

11th February 06:10 pm : In response to my direct question, Barry tells me the exact details of his role, but says that he has chosen to interpret the role as bomb.

11th February 06:42 pm : I tell Bruce about a suspicious claim I have received (but I don't tell him that the claimant is Barry)

11th February 06:48 pm : Barry assumes that all Night Actions are already in and players' fates are decided

11th February 08:17 pm : Barry tells me that he has made a deal with William to kill Simon if Simon backs out of the mutual kill deal.

11th February 09:31 pm : I tell Bruce that it is Barry who made this claim to me.

11th February 09:56 pm : Bruce tells me to tell Barry that the town block will kill him unless he kills William

11th February 09:59 pm : Bruce changes the kill target for Barry to Maggie

12th February 08:11 am : I tell Barry to kill Maggie

12th February 03:22 pm : Barry says that he'd rather kill Bobby

[StickFig]

Is this a suspicion or do the stumps have any proof? It seems like a suspicion, I thought I'd just make my ...968th...post of the day about Chester because why not?

Suspicion. Based on your outline of the vig's kills, I was killed by either scum or SK (if we have one or more). Assuming it was scum, the only two people I pushed against in thread were Alastair (first vote, day one) and Chester (first vote, day two). The only other tree I told others I was suspicious of was Bruce, and we're calling him cleared at this point. Chester told us all that he was too smart to do anything like killing someone who had called him out so directly, but WIFOM....

[mostlytechnic]

Hazel and Peter are now tied at 3 votes. I'm still ok with my vote on Hazel - she's either scum or an oak who doesn't want to be here anymore - and if the latter, I wouldn't expect activity from her, so no reason to keep her around.

I personally don't think we have a SK. I did at first because I assume the vig didn't go out the first 2 nights. But since we've learned the vig DID, then it doesn't make sense for a SK to not show up till now. My gut says the extra kill last night was something like a PGO. Seems odd since we also have bomb claims, but no reason it couldn't be. We've had 2 investigators it appears, so looks like this forest isn't short on roles going around.

Suspicion. Based on your outline of the vig's kills, I was killed by either scum or SK (if we have one or more). Assuming it was scum, the only two people I pushed against in thread were Alastair (first vote, day one) and Chester (first vote, day two). The only other tree I told others I was suspicious of was Bruce, and we're calling him cleared at this point. Chester told us all that he was too smart to do anything like killing someone who had called him out so directly, but WIFOM....

Being not too "in your face" with people might be exactly why the scum or SK (again, if we have one around, but I doubt it) picked you. Sure, taking out Simon on day 1 would be great from their perspective, but they'd also assume there's a protector or watcher out there keeping him safe. When I've been on the other side, we've generally picked the first few nights as people who aren't big targets YET but could be later, so get them out of the way now hoping that any town protectors are keeping watch on the biggest targets.

[Dragonfire]

Suspicion. Based on your outline of the vig's kills, I was killed by either scum or SK (if we have one or more). Assuming it was scum, the only two people I pushed against in thread were Alastair (first vote, day one) and Chester (first vote, day two). The only other tree I told others I was suspicious of was Bruce, and we're calling him cleared at this point. Chester told us all that he was too smart to do anything like killing someone who had called him out so directly, but WIFOM....

In Chester's first game that he played, I called him out on Day 1 for being scummy and voted him. That very night, I died. He was mafia and killed me. Metagaming says that he's mafia here too.

[Fugazi]

OK. Here are the times, Simon. They are all in English/UK time. You'll have to convert them into your time.

11th February 00:05 am : William claims his role to me and tells me about his mutual kill deal with Simon

11th February 03:15 pm : Barry tells me that William has claimed to him, and then strongly hints that he is the bomb. He also says that he finds William's claim suspicious.

11th February 06:10 pm : In response to my direct question, Barry tells me the exact details of his role, but says that he has chosen to interpret the role as bomb.

11th February 06:42 pm : I tell Bruce about a suspicious claim I have received (but I don't tell him that the claimant is Barry)

11th February 06:48 pm : Barry assumes that all Night Actions are already in and players' fates are decided

11th February 08:17 pm : Barry tells me that he has made a deal with William to kill Simon if Simon backs out of the mutual kill deal.

11th February 09:31 pm : I tell Bruce that it is Barry who made this claim to me.

11th February 09:56 pm : Bruce tells me to tell Barry that the town block will kill him unless he kills William

11th February 09:59 pm : Bruce changes the kill target for Barry to Maggie

12th February 08:11 am : I tell Barry to kill Maggie

12th February 03:22 pm : Barry says that he'd rather kill Bobby

When was the night action deadline in relation to this? It seems to me like your telling Barry to kill Maggie was way past that deadline?

Sounds to me like Peter is either an Oak trying to catch scum jumping on an easy lynch, a Maple trying to appear like a Jester, a real Jester, or a Maple faking mental distress in order to win our sympathy. Not sure which is the likeliest, though Berty defending Peter not once but twice is... moving.

[Dragonfire]

When was the night action deadline in relation to this? It seems to me like your telling Barry to kill Maggie was way past that deadline?

Sounds to me like Peter is either an Oak trying to catch scum jumping on an easy lynch, a Maple trying to appear like a Jester, a real Jester, or a Maple faking mental distress in order to win our sympathy. Not sure which is the likeliest, though Berty defending Peter not once but twice is... moving.

Yes, it was. I was asleep at the deadline.

Excuse me? I think Peter is scum and I've never defended him. Quote me defending him, go on!

[Fugazi]

Excuse me? I think Peter is scum and I've never defended him. Quote me defending him, go on!

That's right, it was Hazel you defended twice. My mistake!

Yes, it was. I was asleep at the deadline.

Thanks. In this case, it sorts of settles the Maggie suspicions. Barry probably didn't want to kill Maggie not because she was scum but because the night actions were already in and Maggie wasn't going to die that night. Maggie could still be a Maple, but what Barry said isn't really a clue to that.

[Yzalirk]

Unvote: Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath)

I took some to reevaluate myself and don't want to go out like this, no. I'm not going to give up, screw that. Chester, Nash, or Jack, expect a case against you from me sometime soon.

I'd also like to ask everyone - What is your opinion on Jack voting against me very fast? I'm just curious.

[Fugazi]

Sounds to me like Peter is either an Oak trying to catch scum jumping on an easy lynch, a Maple trying to appear like a Jester, a real Jester, or a Maple faking mental distress in order to win our sympathy. Not sure which is the likeliest, though Berty defending Peter not once but twice is... moving.

Unvote: Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath)

I took some to reevaluate myself and don't want to go out like this, no. I'm not going to give up, screw that. Chester, Nash, or Jack, expect a case against you from me sometime soon.

I'd also like to ask everyone - What is your opinion on Jack voting against me very fast? I'm just curious.

So you basically acknowledge my first theory above? Or are you jumping on it, because the other options make you look bad?

Not to mention, get you lynched.

[Yzalirk]

I went back and took a look at some things Chester has said, which was not much. His posts didn't begin to start until page five where he says;

Sorry I'm a little late to the party, but I've been reading throughout the day.

I agree that the stumps should not divulge all their information in public. That would be giving the names of every Oak tree that has claimed to the stumps, to the Maples. Not a good idea.

Yes, that's true, but some of those claims may not be lies, and the alive trees are Oak, Maple, and possibly Third-Party.

I really don't see any good reason for an Oak to want to have this information divulged in public.

Your post has been noted.

Off-topic, but Berty is technically a unisex name.

Gosh darn it, I didn't realize you were a stump Agnes.

His point about stumps giving out some information is alright, but I don't agree with it. Yes, stumps shouldn't give out ALL information (key word is all). Some information would at least be helpful to remaining Oaks. The codes were meant to mask roles with code words, which people dot different codes I'll assume, so how would Maples easily find out? Overall, Chester gave a pretty mediocre reasoning behind it but I can see the point he's trying to make.

No, I've just been sleeping for eight hours. (Tru fact tho)

Anyhow, I'm not sure how I feel about Jack. He doesn't seem to be playing the same way he was the last game. (Town)

His claiming someone claimed vigilante, which obviously never happened in thread, is what has pinged me the most.

Then on page eight, which I believe is Chester's third post of the day is that. He was sleeping, so he couldn't get some posts up. Well he was then awake and still hardly contributed. Then he goes on to make an analysis based on meta-gaming. That's lazy and doesn't mean anything. If he really contributed, he would have made an analysis based on any of the three days prior, but nope.

I didn't realize. I skimmed over his post and thought he was saying someone had claimed vigilante.

Also, I never said I wanted him lynched really bad...

And Chester's fourth and last post of the day far is that. He's misinterpreted a hypothetical situation to try and push for a lynch against Nash. After this, Chester has not contributed since. If you ask me, he's trying to remain under the radar and hope that he doesn't screw up and make himself look bad. But it seems that not contributing is his enemy right now.

I'm not ready to make a vote against Chester yet since I haven't given a further analysis into Nash or Jack yet. I'd also like to reread what they've all said on any of the days prior.

Also, as I was posting this, I'd like to congratulate Sammy for sticking out like a sore thumb now! Well, at least to me. So would you prefer I just give up and let Maples win? That would be an easy win for you, wouldn't you say? And as of right now, there is no votes against Nash nor Jack, only one against Chester. So what exactly is it that I'm "jumping on"? I'll gladly keep this in mind, however, and not that you did not even attempt to answer a general question I had about Jack.

[Scaevola]

I don't think that we'll have time to coordinate this with Clem and obviously, my name code cipher isn't foolproof and we're running out of time. I'm not sure what Clem has told the stumps. We had a unique situation with Night Action claims behind the scenes. We didn't want to reveal it but now we can since we have one of us on the stump side.

So, regarding the complications with the investigator: There are two of them. Bruce and I were investigated on Night One by two different players and claimed to each other almost simultaneously. We tricked the investigators into targeting each other, telling them they were checking the bomb claim. Neither is lying, we know. One is dead, Clem, and the other was investigated by Clem. They independently confirmed their roles were worded the same way and the remaining investigator has done something no other Townie could do. We kept this secret for obvious reasons. Or if not obvious, because we didn't want the Scum to know if we did have two investigators and Bruce and I wanted to see what results they would give us. If one was Scum we wanted to string them along. Only when we were sure did we bring them together. Everyone make sure to thank Lauren for getting the other one killed.

As far as having two, we know it's not standard and have been trying to think what it might be balancing. One thought was that it's balancing the stumps that are removed from the forest. It would give us a better chance to know an affiliation before it's lynched to verify theories of all non-Oak trees are removed from the forest. It could be a balance to some other type of role, a framer or tailor. We're also aware that two investigators sometimes means one is insane or naive. The remaining one got the correct result on Clem so he's not insane. We were planning on having them target the same player tonight, but now that plan has been thwarted.

So, I asked the Town Block not to claim or to claim vanilla to the stumps. You've met the stumps, I was afraid that a couple of them would freak out. There was a lot of discussion about this and we never reached a conclusion, so I'm not sure what Clem has told the stumps. But I'm sure if this sounds off from anything he has told you, he will verify that it is true.

This is the best example of word-twisting I have ever seen. He's presenting a hypothetical situation in which the vig claimed to the stumps. Why do you want Jack lynched so badly that you would deliberately twist his words?

Well, good because I already went ahead with the second one. You understand the point of the first one? 589 N6425. Do you think the stumps would have a coronary? Is that it?

And it would also 1783 the Scum 9918.

Ah, yes. You've also blatantly twisted Jack's words. Bolding a hypothetical out of context is terribly misleading.

unvote: Jack Pine (mostlytechnic)

I don't like the people jumping on his wagon. Sorry to keep re-voting today. All I know is who not to lynch.

If we end the day without a lynch that will be annoying but it will give us more time. It's interesting the bandwagons that didn't form with the first votes cast.

By the way, I super love you for deciphering all of that crap.

Clem, can you (not asking for names) tell me (mix it in with a list of vanillas) what other roles we have or what we may have lost? I'm curious because if we're lacking other roles that might balance out two investigators as well.

Who hasn't claimed codes to the stumps yet? Can you guys tell us that?

Yes they would have a coronary. I'm not at liberty to divulge anything else yet.

[Walter Kovacs]

Voting update:

Peter Cedar (badboytje88) - 3 (Bob, TinyPiesRUs, Zepher)

Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath) - 2 (jamesn, mostlytechnic)

Chester Chestnut (Lego Spy) - 1 (Dragonfire)

Maggie Magnolia (Calanon) - 1 (fhomess)

mail.statco-dsi.comSimon Persimmon (Hinckley) - 1 (Scubacarrot)

There are 8 Hours left in Day 4. It takes 8 votes to lynch.

[jimmynick]

Also, as I was posting this, I'd like to congratulate Sammy for sticking out like a sore thumb now! Well, at least to me. So would you prefer I just give up and let Maples win? That would be an easy win for you, wouldn't you say? And as of right now, there is no votes against Nash nor Jack, only one against Chester. So what exactly is it that I'm "jumping on"? I'll gladly keep this in mind, however, and not that you did not even attempt to answer a general question I had about Jack.

I thought Peter was doing the jumping

[Yzalirk]

I thought Peter was doing the jumping

If you take a look at Sammy's post, I'm apparently "jumping". I'm just sitting down and looking back for information I can use against people.

[Dragonfire]

That's right, it was Hazel you defended twice. My mistake!

Thanks. In this case, it sorts of settles the Maggie suspicions. Barry probably didn't want to kill Maggie not because she was scum but because the night actions were already in and Maggie wasn't going to die that night. Maggie could still be a Maple, but what Barry said isn't really a clue to that.

I didn't "defend" Hazel per se, I just think she's a confused newbie Town. Her behaviour does read as genuine to me.

And yes, I think so too.

Unvote: Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath)

I took some to reevaluate myself and don't want to go out like this, no. I'm not going to give up, screw that. Chester, Nash, or Jack, expect a case against you from me sometime soon.

I'd also like to ask everyone - What is your opinion on Jack voting against me very fast? I'm just curious.

Good on you. Giving up is really bad play. Whatever your alignment, good move.

I think it could be perceived as scummy, but I'm leaning town on Jack anyway so it doesn't really change my opinions.

I went back and took a look at some things Chester has said, which was not much.

You should have looked at the stuff he's said today. Like twisting Jack's words for instance.

I thought Peter was doing the jumping

Sammy meant Hazel, not Peter

[Duvors]

I hope she's scum, but I think she's Town.

You are insane.

[Yzalirk]

You should have looked at the stuff he's said today. Like twisting Jack's words for instance.

You mean like this?

No, I've just been sleeping for eight hours. (Tru fact tho)

Anyhow, I'm not sure how I feel about Jack. He doesn't seem to be playing the same way he was the last game. (Town)

His claiming someone claimed vigilante, which obviously never happened in thread, is what has pinged me the most.

I'm not sure how Chester could be mislead by a hypothetical situation. I haven't seen Jack claiming to know who the vigilante is or anyone doing so. Chester has only made four posts in this entire day which have just be unhelpful and misleading.

[Hinckley]

So you basically acknowledge my first theory above? Or are you jumping on it, because the other options make you look bad?

Not to mention, get you lynched.

I think you called Hazel Peter.

Yes they would have a coronary. I'm not at liberty to divulge anything else yet.

N5655 3436 3577 Does that make sense?

[jimmynick]

Sammy meant Hazel, not Peter

Seems like Sammy used "jumping" two ways... oops. The first instance made sense to me because Peter did try to jump on the Bobby wagon yesterday, an "easy lynch".

When was the night action deadline in relation to this? It seems to me like your telling Barry to kill Maggie was way past that deadline?

Sounds to me like Peter is either an Oak trying to catch scum jumping on an easy lynch, a Maple trying to appear like a Jester, a real Jester, or a Maple faking mental distress in order to win our sympathy. Not sure which is the likeliest, though Berty defending Peter not once but twice is... moving.

So you basically acknowledge my first theory above? Or are you jumping on it, because the other options make you look bad?

Not to mention, get you lynched.

[Hinckley]

OK. Here are the times, Simon. They are all in English/UK time. You'll have to convert them into your time.

Thank you!

This time I did the math. Here's the timeline, relative to the end of the day, according to Berty's interaction with Barry:

(2 hours after end of day 3) 11th February 06:05 pm : William claims his role to me and tells me about his mutual kill deal with Simon

(17 hours after end of day 3) 11th February 09:15am : Barry tells me that William has claimed to him, and then strongly hints that he is the bomb. He also says that he finds William's claim suspicious.

(20 hours after end of day 3) 11th February 12:00 pm : In response to my direct question, Barry tells me the exact details of his role, but says that he has chosen to interpret the role as bomb.

11th February 12:42 pm : I tell Bruce about a suspicious claim I have received (but I don't tell him that the claimant is Barry)

11th February 12:48 pm : Barry assumes that all Night Actions are already in and players' fates are decided

(22 hours after end of day 3) 11th February 02:17 pm : Barry tells me that he has made a deal with William to kill Simon if Simon backs out of the mutual kill deal.

(23.5 hours after end of day) 11th February 03:31 pm : I tell Bruce that it is Barry who made this claim to me.

(NA deadline) 11th February 03:56 pm : Bruce tells me to tell Barry that the town block will kill him unless he kills William

11th February 03:59 pm : Bruce changes the kill target for Barry to Maggie

(14 hours before start of day 4) 12th February 00:11 am : I tell Barry to kill Maggie

(30 minutes before start of day 4) 12th February 11:22 am : Barry says that he'd rather kill Bobby

That last one should be 3.5 hours before start of Day Four. Sorry

[mostlytechnic]

I'd also like to ask everyone - What is your opinion on Jack voting against me very fast? I'm just curious.

Wait, so now you're surprised that after you gave up publicly that someone else would vote for you? And the very fast was just because I happened to be around shortly after your post. It could have easily been hours later.

I'm not sure how Chester could be mislead by a hypothetical situation. I haven't seen Jack claiming to know who the vigilante is or anyone doing so. Chester has only made four posts in this entire day which have just be unhelpful and misleading.

Wait again... here you're accusing Chester of misunderstanding (which is correct, he DID misunderstand) but you did the SAME THING in misunderstand what I was saying about a hypothetical vig when you voted for me:

I don't know if this has alerted anyone but it sure has to me. Firstly, who claimed to be the vigilante? I have seen anyone claim that responsibility and I think that the vigilante would have been an easy target had he/she done so.

Ping!

[Zepher]

Where is everyone? Come on people, we need to vote for someone!