Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I realize my thought was incomplete there. Trying to do homework and Mafia at the same time... It's hard to bring myself to vote for Jack because being blocked can be totally circumstantial. I feel it's too risky at this stage of the game. But that stresses me out a bit because if we don't find a viable lynch candidate, then we're stuck with the same question about Jack tomorrow. And he has been really helpful with codes and mechanics but as pointed out repeatedly he doesn't talk about suspicions much. I know he has said he would get to his suspicions, but I don't remember him listing any. Has it happened? Lassie, are you still concerned about Sammy's behavior? I think it's going to send us on a wild goose chase if we start thinking about how big people's trees are. n4244 Simon: Alistair / Catarina / Larry / Hazel / Berty Bruce: Alistair / Catarina / Larry / no vote / Berty Sue: Alistair / Catarina / Larry / Hazel / Berty William: Bruce / Maggie / Simon / Simon / Berty Sammy: Bruce / Catarina / Berty / Hazel / Berty Lassie: Bruce / Catarina / Larry / Hazel / Berty Jack: Hazel / Catarina / Barry / Hazel / Berty Adelaide: Alistair / Nash / Larry / Peter / Berty If you take away Hazel, since it was a day when the two leading lynch candidates were Scum (no wonder Hazel was trying to get Berty to vote Chester, duh...) then Sammy technically hasn't voted red either. It would be stupid to be around during that day end and not cast a vote for her, if he was Scum. Jack has the highest amount of red meaning that if he is Scum, he's doing exactly what he's accused Adelaide of doing. So, he's analyzed her vote by criteria that his vote could also be analyzed as Scum. Am I understanding his analysis of Adelaide's votes correctly?
jimmynick Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I realize my thought was incomplete there. Trying to do homework and Mafia at the same time... Sounds about right. n4244 The thought occurred to me, but surely if that's the case there should be other reasons than trunk size?
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Sounds about right. The thought occurred to me, but surely if that's the case there should be other reasons than trunk size? n4244 n5327? I think n4209 XESA to suggest ^
Fugazi Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 If you take away Hazel, since it was a day when the two leading lynch candidates were Scum (no wonder Hazel was trying to get Berty to vote Chester, duh...) then Sammy technically hasn't voted red either. It would be stupid to be around during that day end and not cast a vote for her, if he was Scum. Except that I had the 4th vote on Hazel out of eight required to lynch, so I don't know by what criteria you can dismiss my vote.
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Except that I had the 4th vote on Hazel out of eight required to lynch, so I don't know by what criteria you can dismiss my vote. Sorry
mostlytechnic Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I realize my thought was incomplete there. Trying to do homework and Mafia at the same time... It's hard to bring myself to vote for Jack because being blocked can be totally circumstantial. I feel it's too risky at this stage of the game. But that stresses me out a bit because if we don't find a viable lynch candidate, then we're stuck with the same question about Jack tomorrow. And he has been really helpful with codes and mechanics but as pointed out repeatedly he doesn't talk about suspicions much. I know he has said he would get to his suspicions, but I don't remember him listing any. Has it happened? If you take away Hazel, since it was a day when the two leading lynch candidates were Scum (no wonder Hazel was trying to get Berty to vote Chester, duh...) then Sammy technically hasn't voted red either. It would be stupid to be around during that day end and not cast a vote for her, if he was Scum. Jack has the highest amount of red meaning that if he is Scum, he's doing exactly what he's accused Adelaide of doing. So, he's analyzed her vote by criteria that his vote could also be analyzed as Scum. Am I understanding his analysis of Adelaide's votes correctly? 1. At this point, with 8 trees left, I'm not looking ahead to tomorrow. I don't assume it'll come. I'm assuming that either side could end this thing today. Well, less likely that the maples could, since with 3 or 4 (depending on if there's an SK among the stumpless) gone, there can't be many of them left. Still, I'm focusing on today and making sure we get a stumpless tree today. 2. Yes, I've voiced some suspicions! I hammered on Hazel once my opinion on her changed. I built a case on Adelaide today. I've talked about some lesser suspicions with you in private. That's more than some have done. 3. No, I did more analysis of Aldelaide's votes than just how many red votes. Go read it again :) I looked at WHICH votes were red/green and whether they mattered and why a certain day made sense for a scum to vote a certain way.
Fugazi Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Oh I see, you mean that I might have voted Hazel because at that point there were 4 votes for Peter and 3 for Hazel. Well, everyone is in the same boat then. Except William, he didn't vote either. If you want to dismiss all the late bandwagoning votes and possibly token votes on scum, then look at this: Simon: Alistair / Catarina / Larry / Hazel / Berty Bruce: Alistair / Catarina / Larry / no vote / Berty Sue: Alistair / Catarina / Larry / Hazel / Berty William: Bruce / Maggie / Simon / Simon / Berty Sammy: Bruce / Catarina / Berty / Hazel / Berty Lassie: Bruce / Catarina / Larry / Hazel / Berty Jack: Hazel / Catarina / Barry / Hazel / Berty Adelaide: Alistair / Nash / Larry / Peter / Berty I think we all stand at one credible vote on scum, except William and you. Edit: William didn't vote for either
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I think we all stand at one credible vote on scum, except William and you. Edit: William didn't vote for either We already established that William didn't vote for any red. And I feel my vote for Hazel was credible since I poked her until she started doing Scummy things. Granted it was Town Berty's reaction that made me think she was Scum, but I think it's clear she was manipulating him. Unless by you, you didn't mean me. It's interesting to hear people suspicious of William. He has essentially disappeared. His only major gripe was that I found him suspicious and then he "cleared" himself by proving willing to use his vengeful action, something a Scum would never do. Well, of course they wouldn't if it was just a gambit. And what a freakin' genius gambit it would be if he's Scum. Like sociopathically brilliant. Anyone who wants to live through this game is afraid to place a hammer on him. And that's not even the traditional definition of vengeful. He's defining the Super Saint. Holy Tree would be a clever replacement. So, William's contribution has been to never vote for Scum, flip the hell out when I accuse him, scare anyone from hammering him and then disappear. Chester, what was the name of your role? Paraphrase it, don't quote the host...
Scubacarrot Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 1. William hasn't managed to vote for a single red name yet! Wanna bet that the scum that are left has or have?
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Berty, same question, did it just say Miller? Oh wait, don't answer. This could be considering using the structure of a role PM, I suppose... Maybe I can ask for a judgement from Alder?
Scubacarrot Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 You people keep saying I keep disappearing. I'm here. Vote analysis is interesting and useful and all that, but what use is it if it isn't cross referenced with the dead scum to look for patterns. Can someone with better organized information maybe give us that?
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Waldorf, if n7019 SUXT 6196 and SUXT 6196 Claudio, n4774 TARG n7019 Wait, maybe not.
Scubacarrot Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Also what about the timing of the votes, can someone get on that? Sue voting for Hazel at the end (although Hazel was one of the votes) after she was already hammered for example is interesting.
Fugazi Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 We already established that William didn't vote for any red. And I feel my vote for Hazel was credible since I poked her until she started doing Scummy things. Granted it was Town Berty's reaction that made me think she was Scum, but I think it's clear she was manipulating him. Unless by you, you didn't mean me. I meant you, but because you have two credible votes on scum. So you're not in the list of people who have one. Sorry, that was confusing.
Lady K Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Here are the missing tree stumps and their votes, set up the same as the others I did. Alistair: Catarina / X / X / X / X Barry: Alistair / Catarina / Bobby / X / X Hazel: Catarina / Catarina / Larry / Chester, then himself / X Peter: Hazel / Catarina / Larry / Hazel / X What I see here is that: -on Day one both Alistair and Hazel vote for Catarina (the reasons were first stared by Barry)....Barry votes for Alistair even though he had spent the day trying to get a lynch on Catarina....Peter votes for Hazel - Peter votes for Hazel on Day 1 , but votes with the majority on the other three days, Day 4 was Hazel so he voted twice for Hazel (again I believe he was the serial killer) -Hazel votes for Catarina Day 1 and Day 2, Larry Day 3 and Chester Day 4 (before he votes for himself).....all three became Oak stumps I believe we have three maple stumps here in the missing: Alistair, Barry, and Hazel. That would leave us with 2 or 3 yet left amongst the 8 living trees we have left.
Bob Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Berty, same question, did it just say Miller? Oh wait, don't answer. This could be considering using the structure of a role PM, I suppose... Maybe I can ask for a judgement from Alder? The Alder is too busy making penis jokes in the C&D thread. The late points about William are interesting, but I've thought more about Adelaide, especially her responses: It was Hazel's behaviour after being voted off that convinced me most. It also made me question whether or not I was right about Peter after all. The case against Berty was strong (sorry Berty), so that's where my focus was. Yes, but you still didn't even mention Peter as a possible suspect the next day. Hazel being scum shouldn't have meant that Peter was cleared in your mind, unless you purposefully didn't want to mention it again. Just because it's a new day doesn't mean you can drop all your suspects from the previous day and focus strongly on someone else (who turned out to be town, by the way) Simon asked me in thread why I found Peter scummy. As I've said, I wasn't around for the end of the day, so I explained to Simon why I found Peter scummy afterwards. I was hoping the town block would kill Peter too that night. I don't know if it's just me, but this sounds a bit like fishing in private to me. If you were hoping that the town block would kill Peter that night, and you so strongly suspected him, then why not consider him as a potential suspect the next day? I don't think you've really answered me all that well, nor anyone else, despite your claims that you have. I will: Vote: Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) There's about six hours left in the day if my watch is right. Convince me otherwise.
fhomess Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Here's how I like to visualize voting patterns so you can see everyone. I have kept all the unknown players in red, but it's easy enough to imagine them a different color if you think they're not scum, just like you can imagine cleared living players as green. I think I managed to get every stumped/deceased tree. Day 1: Alastair Pear (Brickelodeon) - 15 (Stickfig, Tamamono, Scaevola, Lord Duvors, jamesn, Lego Spy, PirateDave84, Zepher, Calanon, Bob, Hinckley, adventurer1, jluck, TinyPiesRUs, Mencot) Bruce Spruce (Tamamono) - 8 (Scubacarrot, Fugazi, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, fhomess) Bobby Beech (Lord Duvors) - 5 (Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty) Catarina Dogwood (adventurer1) - 2 (jluck, Brickelodeon, Goliath) Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath) - 2 (brickelodeon, badboytje88, adventurer1, mostlytechnic) Chester Chestnut (Lego Spy) - 1 (TheLazyChicken) Agnes Cyprus (JackJonesPaw) - 1 (Dragonfire) Berty Birch (Dragonfire) - 1 (Scaevola, Tamamono, JackJonespaw) Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) - 0 (Bob) Larry Larch (TheLazyChicken) - 0 (Hinckley, Goliath) No Vote - 1 (Mencot) There are 4 remaining on and 4 remaining off the bandwagon, with three of us on the Bruce train. Barry is currently the only scum on the Alastair wagon, which is unusual. This was why I called out Sue and Adelaide earlier. As I said, it's entirely possible that both are scum or neither, but this is one way to narrow the field. Day 2: Catarina Dogwood (adventurer1) - 16 (Tamamono, jamesn, Hinckley, JackJonespaw, jluck, Scaevola, Lego Spy, Bob, Lord Duvors, Fugazi, Goliath, Dragonfire, TheLazyChicken, badboytje88, fhomess, mostlytechnic, Tamamono) Chester Chestnut (LegoSpy) - 3 (StickFig, Zepher, Calanon) Nash Ash (Zepher) - 1 (TinyPiesRUs) Maggie Magnolia (Calanon) - 1 (Scubacarrot) Barry Cherry (jluck) - 1 (adventurer1) Sammy Sycamore (Fugazi) - 0 (Hinckley) No Vote - 0 Here, I don't see anything to learn from the bandwagon grouping, but the other votes are interesting. There were 7 votes, including Simon's not on the bandwagon. None of those have shown to be anything but Oak yet. Adelaide and William are both in that group. The fact that Adelaide shows up here and in the subgroup on day 1 adds suspicion. Day 3: Larry Larch (TheLazyChicken) - 12 (Zepher, Hinckley, Tamamono, Bob, jamesn, Goliath, Lego Spy, Calanon, fhomess, badboytje88, TinyPiesRUs, jamesn, Dragonfire) Bobby Beech (Lord Duvors) - 2 (Scaevola, TinyPiesRUs, badboytje88, jluck) Barry Cherry (jluck) - 1 (mostlytechnic) Peter Cedar (badboytje88) - 1 (TheLazyChicken) Simon Persimmon (Hinckley) - 1 (Scubacarrot) Berty Birch (Dragonfire) - 1 (Fugazi) No Vote - 1 (Lord Duvors) Here, the votes are fairly split between the two groups. There's scum in both categories. Adelaide was the hammer vote on Larry but I really don't put that much stock into hammer votes given the vagaries of time zones and how hammer votes don't end the day. I look more at trends and changes in the voting pattern, so while I think that Day 4: Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath) - 10 (jamesn, Goliath, mostlytechnic, Hinckley, fugazi, Goliath, fhomess, badboytje88, Calanon, Zepher, Bob) Peter Cedar (Badboytje88) - (Dragonfire, Bob, TinyPiesRUs, Zepher, Dragonfire) Simon Persimmons (Hinckley) - 1 (Scubacarrot) Nash Ash (Zepher) - 0 (Hinckley, Hinckley) Chester Chestnut (Lego Spy) - 0 (Dragonfire, Goliath) Jack Pine (Mostlytechnic) - 0 (Hinckley, Goliath) Maggie Magnolia (Calanon) - 0 (fhomess) No Vote - 2 (Tamamono, Lego Spy) Day 5: I don't see any point in analyzing the unanimous Berty lynch. As for William, he didn't vote with a bandwagon at ALL on days 1-4. I called him on avoiding the bandwagon a day or two ago, I can't remember when exactly, but I wouldn't necessarily vote for him exclusively because of that and his response didn't arouse additional suspicion at the time.
Lego Spy Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Chester, what was the name of your role? Paraphrase it, don't quote the host... Steel Spikes. It had the same definition as the regular bomb role.
Walter Kovacs Posted February 26, 2015 Author Posted February 26, 2015 Voting Update: Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) - 3 (mostlytechnic, Scubacarrot, Bob) Jack Pine (mostlytechnic) - 1 (fhomess) There are 5 Hours remaining in Day 6. It takes 5 Votes to lynch.
Tamamono Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I don't really like the Adelaide lynch. She was the one who started the codes in the first place, which have made it possible for Simon to communicate with Waldorf and the others. She may be changing her play after her great performance last life, but I really think she's town. Lassie is a better lynch. Simon and I had been talking about her for awhile, and all of the suspicions he brought against her are extremely valid. What do we want to do here? We need a lynch, and I just don't think Adelaide's a good one. I actually wouldn't be opposed to lynching Jack. It's probable that he's the SK, but that at least cuts down how many townies die per night...
Lady K Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Well, with only a few hours left this day is not looking good. A no lynch is a bad call. I still think Jack is the best target for today, Simon I'm sure you have your reasons, but what would it really hurt?
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 vote: Jack Pine (mostlytecnic) I apologize if I'm wrong. I will really feel terrible. We have to get these last couple of Scum. If you're still alive tomorrow Jack and we have no other leads, we'll be stuck with the same questions about you.
jimmynick Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I think, like with the Hazel lynch, the lack of votes is telling. It's interesting that Adelaide has been sittin gat 3 votes for a while, Jack has had 1 and there has been talk about Lassie but only one (rescinded) vote. Also, why would Sammy be upset that we "wasted" an investigation clearing him? Is he the godfather?
Tamamono Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Vote: Jack Pine (mostlytechnic) We need a lynch today, and this is the best one we're going to get in the time remaining.
Fugazi Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I still have doubts about lynching Jack, because of that Hazel vote on him Day 4. On the other hand, there's good chance Jack is the SK and Hazel wouldn't have known that. Vote: Jack Pine (mostlytechnic) Also, why would Sammy be upset that we "wasted" an investigation clearing him? Is he the godfather? Why would be a Godfather be upset at being investigated?
Recommended Posts