MagPiesRUs Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I'm not sure what to think of you even suggesting that, but: Nope. Not really. As I've said multiple times before, there are only eight of us alive. If you lynch me and my hammer is town as well, we're basically screwed. I also wouldn't offer myself up if I did not know 99% sure I was killing a scum. My argument with Simon was because I was convinced Simon was scum and I felt as if he purposefully made a (poorly constructed) suspicion of me. Obviously this has changed to me. I doubt Bruce and Simon can be scum, but I also now think they now as little as the other townies at this point. Seeing as before Simon was cheering on Lassie's PM behaviour, but now feels he's most likely to be scum. I've been around. There's not a whole lot to add really. I have no idea what to think. I still think we could lynch either Jack or Sue and be happy with that. I feel like if the scum resort to cheating they are probably frustrated and we are on the right track. Between codes and unhelpful stumps about a possibly cheating dead scum, there has been a lot of serial killer talk, which I'm still confused by to be perfectly honest. Are we 100% sure there is a serial killer? If so, how? Can any extra kills possibly not be explained another way? Ok, I'd forgotten that you said you kill your hammerer rather than choose a target yourself. That makes things harder. Obviously at this late stage in the game, a maple wouldn't want to hammer you, and an oak wouldn't want to hammer you unless they were 100% sure you were scum. That's a smart claim to make if you're a maple. Night 1: 2 kills Night 2: 2 kills Night 3: 3 kills, 1 of them probably being some kind of bomb Night 4: 2 kills Night 5: 3 kills, 1 of them probably some kind of action (the chainsaw and the spikes) Am I missing something obvious? Simon has mentioned that the vig didn't kill on nights 1 and 4. I have been suspicious of Jack since day one, but he makes some excellent points about Adelaide, and I'm not entirely satisfied with her: I-don't-get-it-and-you're-manipulating-how-it-is defense Top that with how suspicious she has been recently. What excellent points did he make?
Scubacarrot Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Speaking of being manic, I know that other people who have mentioned the idea of a janitor have pinged me. But let's consider for a second that there is one. Jack was blocked on the only night we didn't lose a stump. Is there something to that or am I crazy? Please tell me I'm crazy. I know that Peter and Barry make bad janitor targets but being Scum doesn't make you a good strategist. Wasn't it Jack himself that explained why Waldord would've made a better janitor target than Barry? You're going crazy. A janitor probably couldn't have known who exactly who to target of the scum, and we know there are scum among the janitored, as we're still alive, and there can't be four or less scum. Simon has mentioned that the vig didn't kill on nights 1 and 4. What excellent points did he make? Can we trust that information 100%? I quite appreciated his analysis of your votes and activity.
MagPiesRUs Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Can we trust that information 100%? I quite appreciated his analysis of your votes and activity. I trust it. There was no indication that one of the Night 3 kills was a bomb, anyway. The way last night played out strongly suggests a bomb however. I feel I have answered his accusations as well as I can. Is there anything in particular you still want addressed?
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 You're going crazy. A janitor probably couldn't have known who exactly who to target of the scum, and we know there are scum among the janitored, as we're still alive, and there can't be four or less scum. I hope I'm going crazy. But I wasn't suggesting that if there was a janitor they had targeted all Townies. Rudimentary mathematics is a speciality of mine. I trust it. There was no indication that one of the Night 3 kills was a bomb, anyway. The way last night played out strongly suggests a bomb however. True. Barry was not a neutral bomb converting into a killer.
Lady K Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 You must have sent first. So, Jack Pine was blocked on Night Two and it's the only night we haven't seen a stump removed... While I like the idea that only Oaks are stumped, it's worth considering the other possibility. I have been thinking this over and I believe it is entirely possible that the night Jack Pine was blocked and there was no janitored stump is worth looking into. With four removed stumps it would mean the janitor had to have been blocked on the only night all stumps came back. And that was night 2, the same night as Jack being blocked.
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 That thought makes me want to puke. What do the stumps think? It's easier to see things from outside sometimes. Anything clear to you guys about who would make a good lynch today?
jimmynick Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I'm not fond of Sue being very wishy-washy and carefully voting for Hazel after the ninth vote had been reached. On the other hand, I'm intrigued by the two kills on Night Two and no janitors, when we know the vig went out that night. So Jack could be an SK or a janitor, and I think it is worth going after him for that.
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Oh, did Hazel do things like this before ?? Simon (these are what the stumps have told me. Can you confirm this) : n1083 JIUQ 159 ?? n1704, n3198 did not JIUQ 3.14 ?? n6144, n2262, n9689, n6155, n8358 JIUQ 3.14 ?? n9689 FUQS 326 ?? n6144 FUQS n9689 ?? Let's not use your codes anymore. Use mine with Clem or Waldorf, please.
mostlytechnic Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Wow, so because coincidentally the blocker chose to block me on a night that was strange (and I'll point out, EVERY NIGHT of this game has been strange) I have to be lynched? I'll admit, it IS suspicious, and if it wasn't so late in the game I'd understand it more. But I'm telling you flat out, the best explanation I have for night 2 is that no scum or 3rd parties were killed (unlike other nights, therefore no non-stumps), the block was wasted on me because I can do nothing at night, and out of the vig, SK, and scum, two of them targeted the same person. If I'm doing my math right (this is similar to the famous birthday problem, so I calculated it like that) there's about a 14% chance of that, with 22 people left and ignoring that the scum have extra knowledge of who not to attack. In other words, if all 3 of them just rolled dice to pick a target, with 3 killers and 21 potential victims for each, there's about a 1 in 7 chance of two of them picking the same target. HOWEVER, this is in the context of the game, so it's actually much more likely than that, since early in the game the scum would be looking for a not too big (ie not bruce or hinck, since they are likely being protected/watched/etc) target, the vig is looking for someone not too townie (ie a quieter person) and the SK is looking for a similar unguarded target as well.
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 HOWEVER, this is in the context of the game, so it's actually much more likely than that, since early in the game the scum would be looking for a not too big (ie not bruce or hinck, since they are likely being protected/watched/etc) target, the vig is looking for someone not too townie (ie a quieter person) and the SK is looking for a similar unguarded target as well. I agree with this. As Lassie pointed out, nothing is random about these decisions. Considering the stump aspect of the game and the Scum having to alter their strategy of who to kill, I think all three might be looking at the same type of target. Also, in the infamous Forest II, the Serial Killer tricked the Scum by choosing not to kill. Maybe the Scum forgot to get their Night Action in. That's happened before too. Or maybe the Scum blocked the Serial Killer. Maybe there's some wacky Stump-land option we haven't even considered. There are all sorts of options and this sort of "discovery" lynch is risky this late in the game. I'm not feeling confident about any of our options. This is frustrating. unvote: Lassie Sassafrass (fhomess) So, who of the living players "fought" against Peter's lynch? Simon and William (when there was 1 vote against Peter), Simon again (2 votes against Peter), Jack and Lassie later on, Simon (3 votes against Peter), myself (4 votes against Peter), Lassie and Sue. Sue fought against Peter's lynch? I thought she voted second for him... A lot of people have mentioned Sue as a suspicion today and yet nobody is voting for her...
Fugazi Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 One more argument against Jack being scum: Hazel's vote on Day 4. I know that Hazel was probably parroting Simon on that, but it didn't look like she was trying to cast a token vote on a teammate. As for Jack being the SK, that's a definite possibility I guess. Sue fought against Peter's lynch? I thought she voted second for him... That's correct, she voted for Hazel only after Hazel was lynched. I took her off the list on the grounds of her late switch, and don't mention her among the suspects later on.
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Don't give up everyone! We could be just two Scum away from winning this. Focus. If everybody looks at behavior and voting patterns we can still take this. I really want to find that voting analysis that Berty started so we can fill in the rest of what we know, but I'm swamped with school. We still have time to make a solid informed decision on who to lynch. Does anyone know which analysis I'm referring to? Can you point me to the quote? If I have time, I'll add the other days to it so we can all take a look for patterns. Lassie, that's another thing that's been pinging me. Vote analysis is your strong suit yet I don't recall seeing any from you. Let's see it! Take a look. We can do this!
fhomess Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Lassie, that's another thing that's been pinging me. Vote analysis is your strong suit yet I don't recall seeing any from you. Let's see it! Take a look. We can do this! I have made comments about voting at various times that have been lost or ignored in light of other discussions. Just today I mentioned day 1 voting and have also said that I think Sammy's behavior on Day 4 to go after Hazel is suspicious. There have been other comments on votes that haven't really led anywhere, but since you ask so nicely I will review again. Looking back at day 1, there are 5 people on Alastair's bandwagon whose alignment is unknown, 4 of whom are still alive. The living trees are Bruce, Simon, Sue, and Adelaide. The 5th tree is Barry, who I think most agree with me was scum. Even accounting for the likely possibility that Alastair was scum, it would be shocking to me if there was only 1 scum on his bandwagon. That just doesn't happen very much with a day 1 lynch. If we assume that Alastair was scum, then Adelaide's late vote looks a bit more like an attempt to distance oneself from lynched scum than Sue's (take Bruce and Simon out), but that's where you really have to take their other behavior into account. Sue could just as well have been doing that, too, with an early vote knowing it would be less suspicious. Day 4 is already getting plenty of attention and I've said a bit about it so I'll skip that for now. I'm extremely weary and need to rest my leaves, but will review the other days in detail after a rest.
Walter Kovacs Posted February 26, 2015 Author Posted February 26, 2015 Voting Update: Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) - 2 (mostlytechnic, Scubacarrot) Jack Pine (mostlytechnic) - 1 (fhomess) There are 8 Hours remaining in Day 6. It takes 5 Votes to lynch.
Fugazi Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 There you go... but it needs some fixing So I made a vote count thingy- not sure how useful it is but here goes.... (( Stumps in GREEN. I've put Alistair and Barry as red for now as I think neither of them was town )) Player Name Username Vote D1 Vote D2 Vote D3 Adelaide Apple TinyPiesRUs Brickelodeon (14) Zepher (1) Lord Duvors (2) TLC (11) Agnes Cyprus JackJonesPaw Dragonfire (3) adventurer1 (3) Removed Night Two Alistair Pear Brickelodeon Goliath (1) adventurer1 (2) Lynched Day One Barry Cherry jluck adventurer1 (1), Brickelodeon (13) adventurer1 (4) Lord Duvors (5) Bobby Beech Lord Duvors Brickelodeon (4) adventurer1 (8) NO VOTE Berty Birch Dragonfire JackJonesPaw (1) adventurer1 (11) TLC (13) Bruce Spruce Tamamono Dragonfire (2), Brickelodeon (2) adventurer1 (1) adventurer1 (16) TLC (3) Buck "Dollar" Poplar Mencot Brickelodeon (15) Removed Night One Catarina Dogwood adventurer1 Goliath (3), Brickelodeon (12) jluck (1) Lynched Day Two Chester Chestnut Lego Spy Brickelodeon (6) adventurer1 (6) TLC (7) Clem Elm Scaevola Dragonfire (1), Brickelodeon (3) adventurer1 (5) Lord Duvors (1) Hazel Hazelnut Goliath TLC (2), adventurer1 (3) adventurer1 (10) TLC (6) Jack Pine mostlytechnic Goliath (1) adventurer1 (15) jluck (1) Larry Larch TheLazyChicken Lego Spy (1) adventurer1 (13) badboytje88 (1) Lassie Sassafras fhomess Tamamono (3) adventurer1 (14) TLC (9) Lauren Laurel PirateDave84 Brickelodeon (7) Removed Night One Maggie Magnolia Calanon Brickelodeon (9) Lego Spy (3) TLC (8) Nash Ash Zepher Brickelodeon (8) Lego Spy (2) TLC (1) Peter Cedar badboytje88 Goliath (2) adventurer1 (12) Lord Duvors (3) TLC (10) Sammy Sycamore Fugazi Tamamono (2) adventurer1 (9) Dragonfire (1) Simon Persimmon Hinckley TLC (1), Brickelodeon (11) Fugazi (1) adventurer1 (3) TLC (2) Sue Sumac Bob TPRU (1), Brickelodeon (10) adventurer1 (7) TLC (4) Vicky Hickory Stickfig Brickelodeon (1) Lego Spy (1) Removed Night Two Waldorf Walnut jamesn Brickelodeon (5) adventurer1 (2) TLC (5) jluck (1) TLC (12) William Willow Scubacarrot Tamamono (1) Calanon (1) Lord Duvors (4) Hinckley (1) Jack, I think you mean SK rather than vig. I think Barry was worried that he'd be the prime choice of lynch were Larry to flip scum. Ignore that, it was meant to be a table, but absolutely failed. Looking at the votes yesterday, I find the wagon on Bobby weird. Clem (now a stump) started it off, followed by Adelaide, Peter, William and Barry. Adelaide, Peter and William all jumped off the wagon to vote Larry (or Simon, in William's case) This left Clem and Barry on Bobby's wagon. Clem, Barry and Bobby all died in the night. Nobody who voted for Larry died. This probably has no significance; I just find it odd.
Lady K Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Don't give up everyone! We could be just two Scum away from winning this. Focus. If everybody looks at behavior and voting patterns we can still take this. I really want to find that voting analysis that Berty started so we can fill in the rest of what we know, but I'm swamped with school. We still have time to make a solid informed decision on who to lynch. Does anyone know which analysis I'm referring to? Can you point me to the quote? If I have time, I'll add the other days to it so we can all take a look for patterns. Lassie, that's another thing that's been pinging me. Vote analysis is your strong suit yet I don't recall seeing any from you. Let's see it! Take a look. We can do this! Did you want voting analysis on everyone or just the eight trees that are left?
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Did you want voting analysis on everyone or just the eight trees that are left? Everyone would be great. Sometimes Scum adopt a similar pattern. I have class in 4 hours and haven't done my homework yet. I can't believe I'm 38 and neglecting school work for Mafia. I need to concentrate on that. I'll look at the votes for a minute or two though and see if I can figure anything out. Thanks for finding that, Sammy. I really don't feel good about this game day. Wow, that's really hard to read. I wonder if I meant another vote analysis. I wish we had more time.
Fugazi Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Wow, that's really hard to read. I wonder if I meant another vote analysis. I wish we had more time. I tried fixing, but it's taking forever. I'll give you something else instead, give me a minute. Hope it will be clear enough.
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I tried pasting it into Excel. Waldorf, this is a very important message for you to translate (SWZM): Hh su yueo ntlss ciaac mo rgig ooeu kt I really hope you can decipher it. Don't bother, really. It's just meant to waster the Scum's time the way I feel mine is being consumed right now. megabluck you, Scum!
Fugazi Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 It goes like this: 21g2 = 21st vote, g=Goliath, 2nd vote for Goliath. Underlined = hammering vote.
Lady K Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Well, here is what I have on the eight trees left. I'll add the rest of us then post it. Tree name: Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3 / Day 4 / Day 5 Simon: Alistair / Catarina / Larry / Hazel / Berty Bruce: Alistair / Catarina / Larry / no vote / Berty Sue: Alistair / Catarina / Larry / Hazel / Berty William: Bruce / Maggie / Simon / Simon / Berty Sammy: Bruce / Catarina / Berty / Hazel / Berty Lassie: Bruce / Catarina / Larry / Hazel / Berty Jack: Hazel / Catarina / Barry / Hazel / Berty Adelaide: Alistair / Nash / Larry / Peter / Berty What I see from this is that: -of the three who voted for all the majority lynches; Simon, Bruce, and Sue.....only Sue is not cleared as Oak - William did not vote for any of the majority lynches till Day 5 (Berty) -Jack and Adelaide seem to have alternate days of voting for the majority lynch....Jack vote majority on Days 2,4,5 and Adelaide votes majority on Days 1,3,5 -Day 1 William, Sammy, and Lassie all vote for Bruce instead of Alistair -Sammy and Lassie vote the same except for Day 3.....Sammy votes for Berty and Lassie votes for Larry -Of all those who were voted for by the eight left: ... 2 are living and trusted Oaks (Simon and Bruce)....4 are now Oak stumps (Catarina, Larry, Maggie, Nash)....and 4 are missing stumps presumed to be maples (Alistair, Barry, Hazel, Peter) And lets not forget that on Day 2 when Jack was blocked there was no janitored stump....there were 3 trees, all Oaks taken that day (Catarina, Agnes, Vicky) which leads me to another possibility and that is that Jack could be the Maple janitor/scummy killer all rolled up into one tree. I also believe that Peter was likely the odd tree serial killer and was janitored to make us think we got another scum. If I could vote, I would vote for Jack Pine (mostlytechnic).
mostlytechnic Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Thanks sammy! Here's a couple things sticking out from this: 1. William hasn't managed to vote for a single red name yet! ok, so that's one thing. I'll keep looking as I have time... And lets not forget that on Day 2 when Jack was blocked there was no janitored stump....there were 3 trees, all Oaks taken that day (Catarina, Agnes, Vicky) which leads me to another possibility and that is that Jack could be the Maple janitor/scummy killer all rolled up into one tree. Dang, you wanna give me a lot of power there! I only WISH I had night actions like that! That would be a brutally potent scum role. (and no, this is not saying I'm scum. Seriously. But I can hear the posts coming already accusing me of slipping up there)
Lady K Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Thanks sammy! Here's a couple things sticking out from this: 1. William hasn't managed to vote for a single red name yet! ok, so that's one thing. I'll keep looking as I have time... Dang, you wanna give me a lot of power there! I only WISH I had night actions like that! That would be a brutally potent scum role. (and no, this is not saying I'm scum. Seriously. But I can hear the posts coming already accusing me of slipping up there) I am starting to believe anything is possible in this game.
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Thanks Catarina and Sammy. Catarina, I know I asked for Stump advice and then basically ignored it. It's hard to bring myself to vote for Jack Someone brought this up in private and my first thought was that it was ridiculous and my second thought is...maybe? Each of the missing trees is a different size. Could size matter? Is it possible that each group of trees, by size, contains one Scum? Games aren't supposed to be set up this way which is what makes me doubt it. But what do you guys think? Could there be something to that or is someone trying to distract me from productive Scum-hunting?
jimmynick Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I think it's going to send us on a wild goose chase if we start thinking about how big people's trees are.
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