Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Why would be a Godfather be upset at being investigated? It was a strange response. Why do votes always follow me? Makes me nervous. Yet nobody voted for Lassie. Let me go on record saying that I think we're setting up William for an epic Scum win. Apparently, I'm the only one who sees that but it's all I'm thinking about right now.
Fugazi Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Let me go on record saying that I think we're setting up William for an epic Scum win. Apparently, I'm the only one who sees that but it's all I'm thinking about right now. Let me go on record saying that you're paranoid about me so you will vote anyone but my strongest suspicions.
Walter Kovacs Posted February 26, 2015 Author Posted February 26, 2015 Voting Update: Jack Pine (mostlytechnic) - 4 (fhomess, Hinckley, Tamamono, Fugazi) Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) - 3 (mostlytechnic, Scubacarrot, Bob) There are 2 Hours, 45 Minutes remaining in Day 6. It takes 5 Votes to lynch.
mostlytechnic Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Let me go on record saying that I think we're setting up William for an epic Scum win. Apparently, I'm the only one who sees that but it's all I'm thinking about right now. And yet you vote for me? Hey, I'll switch my vote to William in a second if it'll keep me alive and the oaks alive to fight for sunshine. Why do votes always follow me? Makes me nervous. Yet nobody voted for Lassie. Maybe because a bunch of those who made it this far are sheep who've kept their heads down? Do the experiment - switch your vote from me to WIlliam and see who follows. I will
Tamamono Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 And yet you vote for me? Hey, I'll switch my vote to William in a second if it'll keep me alive and the oaks alive to fight for sunshine. Maybe because a bunch of those who made it this far are sheep who've kept their heads down? Do the experiment - switch your vote from me to WIlliam and see who follows. I will This doesn't seem very pro-town.
Lady K Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I don't think there are any sheep left. At this point they are over in the Stump Club or are missing stumps. And I agree, it's not townie of you to say that.
mostlytechnic Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 What's not townie about trying to survive the day? I know 100% for sure that I'm an oak. I do NOT know that 100% for sure about anyone else - not even Simon. So straight, simple logic dictates that ANYONE else getting lynched is better than me getting lynched. The best single thing I can do for town right now is survive.
Dragonfire Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Here's my vote analysis Excel thing. Hope it works.
Tamamono Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 After that vote analysis, it looks like he's the serial killer. Do we have time to switch? Do we want to?
Dragonfire Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I have been thinking this over and I believe it is entirely possible that the night Jack Pine was blocked and there was no janitored stump is worth looking into. With four removed stumps it would mean the janitor had to have been blocked on the only night all stumps came back. And that was night 2, the same night as Jack being blocked. Yes, I think it is. I can't see why the scum wouldn't janitor you after everything that happened on Day 2. Let's not use your codes anymore. Use mine with Clem or Waldorf, please. OK. But I'm telling you flat out, the best explanation I have for night 2 is that no scum or 3rd parties were killed (unlike other nights, therefore no non-stumps), the block was wasted on me because I can do nothing at night, and out of the vig, SK, and scum, two of them targeted the same person. I think this is wrong - there is a janitor. But it is likely that the Scum blocked the SK, or two of the killers targeted the same tree. I also believe that Peter was likely the odd tree serial killer and was janitored to make us think we got another scum. If I could vote, I would vote for Jack Pine (mostlytechnic). Peter was definitely not an Oak. It's interesting to hear people suspicious of William. He has essentially disappeared. His only major gripe was that I found him suspicious and then he "cleared" himself by proving willing to use his vengeful action, something a Scum would never do. Well, of course they wouldn't if it was just a gambit. And what a freakin' genius gambit it would be if he's Scum. Like sociopathically brilliant. Anyone who wants to live through this game is afraid to place a hammer on him. And that's not even the traditional definition of vengeful. He's defining the Super Saint. Holy Tree would be a clever replacement. So, William's contribution has been to never vote for Scum, flip the hell out when I accuse him, scare anyone from hammering him and then disappear. It would be a great Scum claim. To claim vengeful and then ask to be lynched, using double bluffing and a fear of being the hammer to keep votes off him. Berty, same question, did it just say Miller? Oh wait, don't answer. This could be considering using the structure of a role PM, I suppose... Maybe I can ask for a judgement from Alder? My role PM did not say Miller specifically, but I asked Alder for clarification if it was the same role as the Miller, and he said yes (the Elder has confirmed that I can say this) Steel Spikes. It had the same definition as the regular bomb role. Good - so it is confirmed that you were the tree that passively killed Peter last night. Nice one, mate. And yet you vote for me? Hey, I'll switch my vote to William in a second if it'll keep me alive and the oaks alive to fight for sunshine. Maybe because a bunch of those who made it this far are sheep who've kept their heads down? Do the experiment - switch your vote from me to WIlliam and see who follows. I will Jack, worst case scenario, there are two scum and a SK. If you get lynched and are an Oak, then there will be seven players left during the night. One of them is the vigilante. The vig is obviously not going to target themselves, Simon or Bruce, so that leaves four players to choose from. Three of them are non-town. So, in the worst-case scenario, there is a 75% chance that the vigilante will kill a non-town player tonight. The SK would also have a 1/3 chance of killing a scum. Then on Day 7, the remaining townies can lynch another scum. This is very unlikely, though. Jack, it is better for the town that you die now, rather than later when the game really does hang in the balance. Stump Vote: Jack Pine (with regret, since I think you have behaved like an Oak for the most part of the game) After that vote analysis, it looks like he's the serial killer. Do we have time to switch? Do we want to? Jack? If Jack is the SK, then I would say that there are good odds for lynching him, as otherwise we might lynch a townie. There are probably two Maples left if he is the SK, and we are unlikely to lose the game tonight unless the vig shoots wrong.
Fugazi Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 If there are 2 Maples left and one SK, then we are 5 Oaks. Lynching an Oak can lose us the game, if scum and SK kill Oaks successfully and the vig doesn't kill a Maple. I don't think this is our last day, but we might be very unlucky. Taking the SK out is a good option, unless they want to step in the open and collaborate with town? Assuming that's even possible for them.
Walter Kovacs Posted February 26, 2015 Author Posted February 26, 2015 Voting Update: Jack Pine (mostlytechnic) - 4 (fhomess, Hinckley, Tamamono, Fugazi) Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) - 3 (mostlytechnic, Scubacarrot, Bob) There is 1 Hour remaining in Day 6. It takes 5 Votes to lynch.
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Do the experiment - switch your vote from me to WIlliam and see who follows. I will Are you volunteering to hammer?
Lady K Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I still feel that Peter was the serial killer and was janitored to make us think we have gotten 4 scum (with 2 left) when there really could be 3 scum left. That was the advantage in another forest recently, a third tree was recruited near the end so the actual scum total was off by one more than the town thought.
Bob Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Unvote: Adelaide Apple (TPRU) Vote: Jack Pine (mostlytechnic) I'll hammer him.
Dragonfire Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 If there are 2 Maples left and one SK, then we are 5 Oaks. Lynching an Oak can lose us the game, if scum and SK kill Oaks successfully and the vig doesn't kill a Maple. I don't think this is our last day, but we might be very unlucky. Taking the SK out is a good option, unless they want to step in the open and collaborate with town? Assuming that's even possible for them. I don't think the SK can win with town. And I agree, there will probably be a Day 7. I still feel that Peter was the serial killer and was janitored to make us think we have gotten 4 scum (with 2 left) when there really could be 3 scum left. That was the advantage in another forest recently, a third tree was recruited near the end so the actual scum total was off by one more than the town thought. Yes, I seem to be familiar with that other forest. Either way, it looks like Jack is scum with the lack of votes on him. Unvote: Adelaide Apple (TPRU) Vote: Jack Pine (mostlytechnic) I'll hammer him. If Jack turns up scum, that's a towny move in my eyes. You could have just abstained and achieved a no-lynch. But if Jack turns up town (and we haven't lost the game tomorrow), then you will look a lot scummier.
Walter Kovacs Posted February 26, 2015 Author Posted February 26, 2015 Voting Update: Jack Pine (mostlytechnic) - 5 (fhomess, Hinckley, Tamamono, Fugazi, Bob) Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) - 2 (mostlytechnic, Scubacarrot) There are 45 minutes remaining in Day 6. It takes 5 Votes to lynch.
mostlytechnic Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Wow, a record number of people here to see my death? I still stand firm - you are wrong. You're lynching a townie and I'm afraid it may be the end. You're not considering the real worst case there - 4 town, 3 maples, 1 SK. I get lynched, that's an oak gone, and it's 3-3-1. Scum kill one more of us, it's 2-3-1. The vig kills a scum, it's 2-2-1 and you're counting on who the SK kills to decide the game. I do not like those odds. And Simon, yes, right now I'd gladly hammer William because I'm not at all convinced his roleclaim is true. After that vote analysis, it looks like he's the serial killer. Do we have time to switch? Do we want to? Care to explain? You did exactly zero analysis there!
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I hate this. I'm in class. Are people really hovering? Who?
mostlytechnic Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 The watching list has shrunk, but when I said it, it was me, you, Alder, Adelaide, Alastair, forget who else. Like 7-8 people though, and the rest of day 6 has been 2-3 at best when I've seen it.
Hinckley Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I know this is logically a good lynch but instinctually it just feels wrong. We'll at least have more votes to analyze but I have half a mind to unvote. I wish we had more time. No lynch is not good but if he's an Oak, we could possibly lose this tonight. What an aggravating day. F-word.
Walter Kovacs Posted February 26, 2015 Author Posted February 26, 2015 Voting Update: Jack Pine (mostlytechnic) - 5 (fhomess, Hinckley, Tamamono, Fugazi, Bob) Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) - 2 (mostlytechnic, Scubacarrot) There are 10 minutes remaining in Day 6. It takes 5 Votes to lynch.
mostlytechnic Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 I know this is logically a good lynch but instinctually it just feels wrong. We'll at least have more votes to analyze but I have half a mind to unvote. I wish we had more time. No lynch is not good but if he's an Oak, we could possibly lose this tonight. What an aggravating day. F-word. But no-lynch is not as bad as lynching an oak! It's better to throw your vote away than lynch me! Go with your gut!
MagPiesRUs Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 Yes, but you still didn't even mention Peter as a possible suspect the next day. Hazel being scum shouldn't have meant that Peter was cleared in your mind, unless you purposefully didn't want to mention it again. Just because it's a new day doesn't mean you can drop all your suspects from the previous day and focus strongly on someone else (who turned out to be town, by the way) Peter was never cleared in my eyes, but Berty did seem like a stronger lynch in light of Hazel's demise. I don't know if it's just me, but this sounds a bit like fishing in private to me. If you were hoping that the town block would kill Peter that night, and you so strongly suspected him, then why not consider him as a potential suspect the next day? I don't think you've really answered me all that well, nor anyone else, despite your claims that you have. How is that fishing? I never even mentioned the vig in my discussion. I was just hoping Simon would see why Peter seemed so suspicious. Simon pointed out that Peter always does weird things and that this instance was no different, which made me hesitate a little on my stance against Peter. 3. No, I did more analysis of Aldelaide's votes than just how many red votes. Go read it again :) I looked at WHICH votes were red/green and whether they mattered and why a certain day made sense for a scum to vote a certain way. As I've pointed out, how you define a vote that matters doesn't make much sense to me. I hammered Larry on Day 3, which somehow doesn't matter, and I voted for Alastair after the hammer, which for some reason matters. I'm not entirely convinced by the case against Jack though. Didn't I read that he'd been cleared by the investigator? That would probably rule him out as a SK, and he has appeared fairly proactive and anti-maple, which makes it difficult for me to see him as the godfather.
mostlytechnic Posted February 26, 2015 Posted February 26, 2015 for those still paying attention - note that there's just minutes left in the day and Adelaide has NOT VOTED!!!!! (on the other hand, I appreciate her note of support towards me at the end of the post...)
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