Unrest in the Forest - Day 7: Permanent Waves

[Dragonfire]

If there is a SK, the only realistic candidates are Lassie and Sue. Since I believe Sue is a maple, I would guess Lassie is SK. If there are only two townies left, then it is me and Simon. If there is a third townie, I think it is a toss-up between Sammy and Lassie. It will help to hear a lot more from both of them today though.

Vote: Sue Sumac (Bob)

This should be an interesting day for voting...

So you think Sammy and Sue are the last Maples and Lassie is the SK?

I hadn't mentioned Jack at all because I was more convinced about you being scum, at least in the beginning of the day. Then when the evidence started to compile against Jack and people became more suspicious of him, I decided to hammer him out. Even more convincing for me was one of his final posts, in which he stated that it was vital for him to stay alive and anyone but him should have been lynched. I'm assuming that since Simon voted for him it pretty much confirmed him as vanilla, since everyone claimed to Simon. No vanilla player should ever say that it is vital for him to live and survive.

I can confirm that Jack claimed vanilla via the code system.

I know I've already done this, but just to re-iterate it: STUMP Vote: Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs)

(This is using Waldorf's codes)

The collective view of the stumps is that n136 is n4209. We all think that n139 is n6609 or n3372. We also think that n7019's XESA is good.

[MagPiesRUs]

I hadn't mentioned Jack at all because I was more convinced about you being scum, at least in the beginning of the day. Then when the evidence started to compile against Jack and people became more suspicious of him, I decided to hammer him out. Even more convincing for me was one of his final posts, in which he stated that it was vital for him to stay alive and anyone but him should have been lynched. I'm assuming that since Simon voted for him it pretty much confirmed him as vanilla, since everyone claimed to Simon. No vanilla player should ever say that it is vital for him to live and survive.

Ok, I'm glad you answered that. So you didn't think it was suspicious that the bandwagon was steered away from me and towards Jack? You thought it was two scum on the chopping block yesterday? Even though no one jumped on the vote against Lassie (who, unless you think all three possible lynch candidates were scum yesterday, you think is an oak)?

That's actually one of my primary reasons for suspecting you - because you voted for me initially. I feel like if Lassie was scum, he would have jumped on the bandwagon against me and gotten an easy lynch. I'm iffy on Sammy though, who held off on his. He may have been biding his time, waiting to see if he could get enough votes on me to lynch. He had provided some justification for voting for me earlier in the day, and may have been holding off on his vote to be certain he wasn't caught out.

You're grasping at straws and drawing lines and connections to places that don't exist. You're striving to make yourself look town by twisting my words and accusing me of not properly answering your questions. Go back and look, you didn't ask me a question. You made a statement.

Ok, it wasn't a question. I still expected you to address it though, because it is a big concern of mine.

Your last sentence about this being an interesting day for voting is pretty ominous. Expecting any surprises?

What surprises are you thinking of? What I mean is that if there are only 3 townies left (possibly even 2 townies, 1 neutral), this is going to be a tough vote to get through.

So you think Sammy and Sue are the last Maples and Lassie is the SK?

Possibly. I'm open to the idea that there is only one maple left though.

[Hinckley]

I'm trying to work the timeline out in my head as best as I can

Night 1: Vig blocked, Scum/SK kill Buck, Scum/SK kill Lauren

Night 2: Vig kills Agnes, Scum/SK kill StickFig, Scum/SK don't kill/get blocked/target is protected

Night 3: Vig kills Bobby, SK kills Barry, Scum kills Clem

Night 4: Vig kills no one, Scum/SK kills Waldorf, Scum/SK kills Maggie

Night 5: Vig kills Nash, Scum kills Chester, who in turn kills scum...

So it looks like there was only one nontown killer out and about on both Nights 2 and 5. What if Peter was the SK and the scum actually converted or something on Night 2?

Dang, you wanna give me a lot of power there! I only WISH I had night actions like that! That would be a brutally potent scum role. (and no, this is not saying I'm scum. Seriously. But I can hear the posts coming already accusing me of slipping up there)

Let's take a look of this to clear some things up. Jack is responding to Catarina's suggestion that he killed and janitored and he scoffs at that suggestion. Like any Oak would've done, Catarina looked up janitor on Mafiawiki when Alastair first was plucked. A janitor, in its purest form, is a killer that can hide the body of its victim. Jack clearly doesn't think of this as the definition and doesn't know why anyone would think this so the ridiculousness is his own defense. Some games Scum can swap roles around, but since Jack is dead and there was no janitor, it's safe to assume the role was separate and the Scum did kill on Night Two. As I pointed out, it also seemed like he knew the Scum had killed Vickory.

It's still possible they could swap roles around and the reason there is no more janitor is because they had to choose to discard one role since the were down to too few players.

Maybe because a bunch of those who made it this far are sheep who've kept their heads down?

Do the experiment - switch your vote from me to WIlliam and see who follows. I will

This is suspiciously close to Alastair's "Hey I'll make you a bet, Bruce. Remove your vote and see if others follow. Accident or design?

Then what do we make of Alastair, since he was plucked rather than blown up? Some 3rd party, or just being a smaller tree, no dynamite was needed?

Because here he's nonsensically trying to pretend that Alastair's janitoring–which is truly a word–meant something. So this is a fat glass of WIFOM about Alastair's alignment.

Voting for alastair after he was hammered (by a scum) was relevant because it was essentially at the same time. Miscommunication in the scumboard as to who would do it? Or like I said, was it that you all realized alastair was doomed so you both threw down what was essentially a double hammer so that you can use it as defense later? Like I said, I am assuming the scum were surprised by the stump thing too, so you assumed you'd be able to point later in the game that "I hammered a scum on day 1, so how could I possibly be a scum?" And since you both posted votes at the same time, you and Barry would BOTH get the same defense at the price of one scum who was getting lynched anyway.

Reading this quote and not knowing Alastair's alignment gives me a headache.

Thanks sammy!

Makes my skin crawl

I still have doubts about lynching Jack, because of that Hazel vote on him Day 4. On the other hand, there's good chance Jack is the SK and Hazel wouldn't have known that.

Vote: Jack Pine (mostlytechnic)

Another Sammy ping. Think that Hazel is an Oak and read that quote again. Keep in mind it was the second time he brought it up as a reason not to vote for Jack and he was right on my heels with that vote.

Also what about the timing of the votes, can someone get on that? Sue voting for Hazel at the end (although Hazel was one of the votes) after she was already hammered for example is interesting.

And now for my daily apology . William, I'm so sorry I misread you. This seems like a thing in this game. Nobody is allowed to vote for a person after a hammer. That's new to me. Is this the same type of thing that Jack was accusing Adelaide of? And similar to what Adelaide is now accusing Sue of?

Sue has done some weird voting, at least as far as being accompanied with explanations. This is far off from Adelaide's voting for Nash for having "Scum written all over him" though. Or is it? Maybe I'm not understanding. These voting after the hammer suspicions are so nuanced I kind of glaze over when I start reading them. But Sue hammered Jack after going after Adelaide all day and not mentioning Jack at all and she also almost hammered Hazel, who might be Town, after I asked her to but Nash had already hammered. That was another discrepancy; Sue saying that the Scummiest thing she had seen in the game was Hazel quitting. Sounds like Peter and Sammy's confidence in Hazel being Scum and Berty being janitored, respectively.

Quick run-down:

Definite Scum:

Jack

Peter

Barry

Hopefully Scum:

Alastair

Probably not Scum:

Hazel as much as I hate to admit after railing against the idea for so long. It paints an interesting picture of what certain people have been saying and doing.

Here's how I like to visualize voting patterns so you can see everyone. I have kept all the unknown players in red, but it's easy enough to imagine them a different color if you think they're not scum, just like you can imagine cleared living players as green. I think I managed to get every stumped/deceased tree.

Day 1:

Alastair Pear (Brickelodeon) - 15 (Stickfig, Tamamono, Scaevola, Lord Duvors, jamesn, Lego Spy, PirateDave84, Zepher, Calanon, Bob, Hinckley, adventurer1, jluck, TinyPiesRUs, Mencot)

Bruce Spruce (Tamamono) - 8 (Scubacarrot, Fugazi, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, fhomess)

Bobby Beech (Lord Duvors) - 5 (Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty, Penalty)

Catarina Dogwood (adventurer1) - 2 (jluck, Brickelodeon, Goliath)

Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath) - 2 (brickelodeon, badboytje88, adventurer1, mostlytechnic)

Chester Chestnut (Lego Spy) - 1 (TheLazyChicken)

Agnes Cyprus (JackJonesPaw) - 1 (Dragonfire)

Berty Birch (Dragonfire) - 1 (Scaevola, Tamamono, JackJonespaw)

Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) - 0 (Bob)

Larry Larch (TheLazyChicken) - 0 (Hinckley, Goliath)

No Vote - 1 (Mencot)

There are 4 remaining on and 4 remaining off the bandwagon, with three of us on the Bruce train. Barry is currently the only scum on the Alastair wagon, which is unusual. This was why I called out Sue and Adelaide earlier. As I said, it's entirely possible that both are scum or neither, but this is one way to narrow the field.

Day 2:

Catarina Dogwood (adventurer1) - 16 (Tamamono, jamesn, Hinckley, JackJonespaw, jluck, Scaevola, Lego Spy, Bob, Lord Duvors, Fugazi, Goliath, Dragonfire, TheLazyChicken, badboytje88, fhomess, mostlytechnic, Tamamono)

Chester Chestnut (LegoSpy) - 3 (StickFig, Zepher, Calanon)

Nash Ash (Zepher) - 1 (TinyPiesRUs)

Maggie Magnolia (Calanon) - 1 (Scubacarrot)

Barry Cherry (jluck) - 1 (adventurer1)

Sammy Sycamore (Fugazi) - 0 (Hinckley)

No Vote - 0

Here, I don't see anything to learn from the bandwagon grouping, but the other votes are interesting. There were 7 votes, including Simon's not on the bandwagon. None of those have shown to be anything but Oak yet. Adelaide and William are both in that group. The fact that Adelaide shows up here and in the subgroup on day 1 adds suspicion.

Day 3:

Larry Larch (TheLazyChicken) - 12 (Zepher, Hinckley, Tamamono, Bob, jamesn, Goliath, Lego Spy, Calanon, fhomess, badboytje88, TinyPiesRUs, jamesn, Dragonfire)

Bobby Beech (Lord Duvors) - 2 (Scaevola, TinyPiesRUs, badboytje88, jluck)

Barry Cherry (jluck) - 1 (mostlytechnic)

Peter Cedar (badboytje88) - 1 (TheLazyChicken)

Simon Persimmon (Hinckley) - 1 (Scubacarrot)

Berty Birch (Dragonfire) - 1 (Fugazi)

No Vote - 1 (Lord Duvors)

Here, the votes are fairly split between the two groups. There's scum in both categories. Adelaide was the hammer vote on Larry but I really don't put that much stock into hammer votes given the vagaries of time zones and how hammer votes don't end the day. I look more at trends and changes in the voting pattern, so while I think that

Day 4:

Hazel Hazelnut (Goliath) - 10 (jamesn, Goliath, mostlytechnic, Hinckley, fugazi, Goliath, fhomess, badboytje88, Calanon, Zepher, Bob)

Peter Cedar (Badboytje88) - (Dragonfire, Bob, TinyPiesRUs, Zepher, Dragonfire)

Simon Persimmons (Hinckley) - 1 (Scubacarrot)

Nash Ash (Zepher) - 0 (Hinckley, Hinckley)

Chester Chestnut (Lego Spy) - 0 (Dragonfire, Goliath)

Jack Pine (Mostlytechnic) - 0 (Hinckley, Goliath)

Maggie Magnolia (Calanon) - 0 (fhomess)

No Vote - 2 (Tamamono, Lego Spy)

Day 5:

I don't see any point in analyzing the unanimous Berty lynch.

As for William, he didn't vote with a bandwagon at ALL on days 1-4. I called him on avoiding the bandwagon a day or two ago, I can't remember when exactly, but I wouldn't necessarily vote for him exclusively because of that and his response didn't arouse additional suspicion at the time.

Sorry, I quoted that because I wanted to read it in my temple and forgot to move it.

Vote: Sue Sumac (Bob)

Vote: Adelaide Apple (TPRU)

Would the two remaining Scum try to split the votes between themselves?

So you think Sammy and Sue are the last Maples and Lassie is the SK?

That makes me feel really lonely.

The collective view of the stumps is that n136 is n4209. We all think that n139 is n6609 or n3372. We also think that n7019's XESA is good.

Thanks BB. Let me grab my codes and check what the hell you're saying.

(This is using Waldorf's codes)

Just post that list in the Stump PM and I can just refer to that instead of switching. It will make my life much easier. Thank you.

The collective view of the stumps is that n136 is n4209.

What?? OK. I was leaning the other way, but I'll look very closely at everything.

We all think that n139 is n6609 or n3372.

Aha! n3372. Probably. Aaaaw. Good for him. I'm impressed, really.

We also think that n7019's XESA is good.

I will work that out. I need n3800 Claudio or n3372? from n4913.

[MagPiesRUs]

Makes my skin crawl

What do you think of this quote?

I'll grant you that I've acted confused about them, but I have indeed claimed my codes publicly, on the second page as well.

Ah, so it was just ACTING confused? Sounds scummy...

Light little poke there, which Jack immediately rescinds with his blush. Scum buddies have done things like this before.

[Hinckley]

What do you think of this quote?

It gives me a ping towards Sammy.

[MagPiesRUs]

It gives me a ping towards Sammy.

I was actually asking about the quote I placed below about Jack and Sue.

[Lady K]

I know I already mentioned this, but the new day has been up for 24hrs and Sammy hasn't even posted once. Does this ping anyone else?

[Tamamono]

What if we're looking too hard for partner reads now? I think it's possible that there's only one scum left.

Simon if that were the case, who would it be? My money would be on Sammy

[Fugazi]

Sorry for the absence, I had friends over at the tree-house this week-end. I will catch up on the discussion tonight.

[Hinckley]

Simon if that were the case, who would it be? My money would be on Sammy

Same here. But I'm not sure there aren't two of them. Have you conferred with the other stumps?

And for God's sake, n3800 3168??

Sorry, n3800 Claudio??

or n5333 3669??

[fhomess]

I'm going to leave Simon and myself out of the analysis below since I believe Simon's an Oak and I know I'm one.

Yesterday it was 3-1 Adelaide in favor of Jack when Simon and Bruce both voted in quick succession. Sammy voted very quickly thereafter to make it 4-3 in favor of Jack. A while later, Sue switched over from Adelaide to Jack, and then Adelaide responded late without voting. Jack made an issue of pointing out that Adelaide hadn't voted.

If there is only 1 scum left, it's most likely Adelaide. It's probably not Sue due to the hammer vote yesterday. It would've made more sense for her to sit back and hope the lynch didn't go through, albeit relying on Adelaide not to contribute. It's probably not Sammy, since his vote made it 4 and made it possible for the hammer to happen. If he wanted that, he would've voted for Adelaide instead of his teammate.

If there are 2 scum left, here are the options:

- Sammy/Adelaide - In this case, both primary lynch candidates yesterday were scum so it would conceivably not matter which one was lynched. Sammy votes with the town block to look less suspicious and because the lynch is more likely to go through. There's less explaining to do.

Also this:

I didn't have time to put a case together against someone, but if I did I probably would have voted against Sammy. In light of Sammy being investigated and Jack being revealed as scum, I'm willing to believe he is a townie at the moment though.

I notice that Sue has been active since I asked her why she switched votes. It's not that difficult a question to answer, is it?

Yesterday, she would've voted for Sammy if she'd had time to put a case together. Today, she finds Sammy's vote for Jack less scummy than Sue's even though Sue is the one who sealed the lynch on a scummo.

- Sammy/Sue - This is a realistic possibility with bussing their partner. The question would be why they didn't shift the vote over to Adelaide. Perhaps Sammy wanted to but came on just too late and saw that the town block had decided on Jack and for reasons stated above, decided it would be safer just to vote with the town block.

- Sue/Adelaide - This seems least likely to me due to the late vote switch and they way they're going at it today. If the vote yesterday was between two scum, and Sue was their partner, she could've easily left her vote on Adelaide. Adelaide's non vote would've left it at a 4-3 no-lynch, and they've started it up today. Adelaide is also ignoring Sammy completely as a candidate.

So right now, my vote is with Adelaide.

Vote: Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs)

Sorry... that bit about Adelaide ignoring Sammy completely was before I went back and reviewed and added the quote where Adelaide does address Sammy a bit.

[MagPiesRUs]

[snip]

Why do you think the vote against you didn't take off if both me and Jack were scum? If both major lynch candidates were scum yesterday, don't you think the maples would have leaped at the opportunity to lynch you? If a couple of others had followed along with Simon and added some pressure on you, I think the day could have turned out differently. Instead, the maples must have realised I was an easier target, and thus tried to let me get lynched.

I definitely haven't ignored the possibility of Sammy being scum. I am curious to see what he has to say today.

[Hinckley]

Adelaide appears to be the consensus from the living and the stumps or living-impaired as they apparently prefer to be called.

I haven't hammered yet so vote: Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) Wheee! Hammer.

Let's hope this is the last day then.

Why do you think the vote against you didn't take off if both me and Jack were scum?

Maybe you guys smelled a sting operation?

[MagPiesRUs]

Adelaide appears to be the consensus from the living and the stumps or living-impaired as they apparently prefer to be called.

I haven't hammered yet so vote: Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) Wheee! Hammer.

Let's hope this is the last day then.

Maybe you guys smelled a sting operation?

Is that what you believe, or are you following along with the supposed consensus?

If you go back and read yesterday, it doesn't look at all like Jack and I were on the same side.

Do you think the code strategy was all a scum move? Because it's a pretty damn helpful idea. Do you think I brought it up purely as a WIFOM, even though it could have been crippling to the maples if everything had gone right? Even though Lauren revealed a bunch of vanillas, it has still been helpful (I assume so at least, based on the back and forth between Simon and the stumps). That's an extremely high-risk, low-reward ploy if so.

Basically, every argument against me seems to assume there's some sort of WIFOM at play, when the far simpler explanation is that I'm an oak.

[Tamamono]

And for God's sake, n3800 3168??

Sorry, n3800 Claudio??

or n5333 3669??

n4913 no Claudio n3800.

[Walter Kovacs]

Voting update:

Sue Sumac (Bob) - 1 (TinyPiesRUs)

Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs) - 3 (Bob, fhomess, Hinckley)

There are 32 Hours left in Day 7. It takes 3 votes to lynch.

[Hinckley]

Is that what you believe, or are you following along with the supposed consensus?

Supposed? Are you suggesting there is no consensus? I don't think the stumps would let me announce their collective will falsely.

If you go back and read yesterday, it doesn't look at all like Jack and I were on the same side.

I'll check for that through more than just yesterday.

Do you think the code strategy was all a scum move? Because it's a pretty damn helpful idea. Do you think I brought it up purely as a WIFOM, even though it could have been crippling to the maples if everything had gone right? Even though Lauren revealed a bunch of vanillas, it has still been helpful (I assume so at least, based on the back and forth between Simon and the stumps). That's an extremely high-risk, low-reward ploy if so.

Basically, every argument against me seems to assume there's some sort of WIFOM at play, when the far simpler explanation is that I'm an oak.

You're really really smart. Scary smart.

n4913 no Claudio n3800.

I'll update this in a little while.

[MagPiesRUs]

Supposed? Are you suggesting there is no consensus? I don't think the stumps would let me announce their collective will falsely.

Before your vote, there was no consensus amongst the living yet. As far as the stumps go, unless I've missed something, the consensus isn't exactly overwhelming (3 to 2, it seems).

You're really really smart. Scary smart.

But it's not smart to set up codes. It restricts the scum heavily. That's why I thought the codes would work and proposed them. You can't just ignore all of things I've done that make far more sense for an oak to do just because you think I'm smart. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

[Hinckley]

Before your vote, there was no consensus amongst the living yet. As far as the stumps go, unless I've missed something, the consensus isn't exactly overwhelming (3 to 2, it seems).

It was part of the code for whatever reason.

But it's not smart to set up codes. It restricts the scum heavily. That's why I thought the codes would work and proposed them. You can't just ignore all of things I've done that make far more sense for an oak to do just because you think I'm smart. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

But it's such a great gambit. I don't know what the Scum have had in their arsenal this whole time. It may have been worth the risk. It's also something we were likely to come up with on our own and you (and Sammy?) both beat us to it to appear Townie. It was great work. I'm just not sure it was really for the Oaks. You were my the first person I put in the Scum column on my spreadsheet when you sent me a message on Day One telling me the other people who were PMing me were Scum. There have been a lot of leads to follow so I didn't focus on you after that and your formation of the codes certainly took me off your trail as a priority, but I always got a sense of non-committal suspicion from you. You'd have solid ideas but if they were ignored you didn't do anything to make your points clearer. I will probably find examples of that as I look over the days. It's early so if we find we're wrong, we can turn this train around.

[Hinckley]

Ok, thanks. Now that we've got clarificat.... have had to fail or target one of the dead.

Weird that the board combined your p... conversation? KIDDING!

Then what do we make of Alastair, since he was plucked rather than blown up? Some 3rd party, or just being a smaller tree, no dynamite was needed?

Oh, you mean asking for clarifi..... stumps, not scum... )

Here's where I accuse him. Check the above quotes. No mention of Adelaide.

This may not be a reason to lynch you, but it is a fact that you were blocked on Night Two.

With two investigators, a Miller and stumps, it stands to reason that there's a Godfather, doesn't it?

Well, to be clear, no one else was around (at least not posting) - it was you, me, and Waldorf as the only posts for quite a stretch there. And yep, I have ignored posts with codes for DAYS - when they were ...

Or are you suggesting I'm a godfather? That would suggest you investigated me, and nothing was ever said to that effect, and you DID give most of the investigators' results before they died, since they mostly cleared you and Bruce and each other... so I don't see that as likely. But yes, I always assume there's a godfather, and with that much investigating going on (and the odds of them getting connected SO SOON is so remote, so if I were hosting I wouldn't expect their time to be spent proving they are both legit) I wouldn't be surprised if there was a framer or something as well.

And then he repeats the confusion about the same post Adelaide quoted to me in private. Odd that they both responded the same way to the same post. And Jack clarified it over 48 hours before Adelaide uses that excuse for me in private.

Then, over 24 hours after I tell him about the block, his first suspicion of Adelaide (that day, maybe throughout the entire game) is mentioned. Once he realized we had a Night Action implicating him, here comes the first major suspicion articulated from Jack. We kept telling him he was talking codes and mechanics and only when he's confronted with evidence against him we get a thorough case against Adelaide. This would be a great ploy to try and keep Adelaide safe on Day 7. Reminds me a bit of Adelaide and Sue today:

Since this game's been amazingly short on vote analysis (due to the lack of stumps), I decided to do some. And guess what I found...

Vote: Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUs)

Because...

Day 1 - Barry Cherry and Adelaide both essentially hammered Alastair, voting within 2 minutes of each other. Wait, why would a pair of scums hammer another scum? Because, everyone knew someone would switch over to Alastair to get the day 1 lynch, and by throwing a fellow scum under the bus, they'd have a good defense later. I don't think the scum knew the stump and no stump thing was coming any more than we did, so they fully thought they'd have good defense in later days.

Day 2 and 3, a wasted vote on Nash and then joined the bandwagon on Larry. Both days were well sealed lynches, so it didn't matter.

Day 4, the Peter vs Hazel debacle. He voted Peter fairly early and then stayed there. Voting against a fellow scum again (good defense for later), but also not swapping his vote over to help lynch. Instead, by not moving, he was aiming for a no-lynch since the votes were split between two scum.

Day 5, right in the middle of the Berty bandwagon.

Basically, when his vote was irrelevant, it was on an oak. When it was more important, it was on scum. No oak could be 100% accurate like that - he must have known alignments!

Ok, there's some quick vote analysis. Took me longer to type than to do. So now how about some metagaming?

Day 1, he made a whopping 4 posts. In a day that had over 400!!! Talk about staying under the radar!

Day 2, stepped it up to 17 out of 470 posts.

Day 3, 7 out of 275

Day 4, 10 posts out of 330 made

Day 5, 5 of 128.

And so far today, 3 of 76.

Either lazy or hiding, to be consistently posting so little when there has been SO MUCH to talk about. And now this is where it gets meta. I've been in a very political forest with him before. In that case, he was definitely scum and was similarly very quiet.

That's bad timing, Adelaide...24 hours for you guys to formulate a plan to keep you safe today.

And the end of the day looks like you guys got your scripts confused.

for those still paying attention - note that there's just minutes left in the day and Adelaide has NOT VOTED!!!!!

(on the other hand, I appreciate her note of support towards me at the end of the post...)

No mention that I already clarified with him that he wasn't investigated. That would've made Adelaide's argument null.

As I've pointed out, how you define a vote that matters doesn't make much sense to me. I hammered Larry on Day 3, which somehow doesn't matter, and I voted for Alastair after the hammer, which for some reason matters.

I'm not entirely convinced by the case against Jack though. Didn't I read that he'd been cleared by the investigator? That would probably rule him out as a SK, and he has appeared fairly proactive and anti-maple, which makes it difficult for me to see him as the godfather.

He's defining votes that matter in a way you don't understand but you assume he's just making an innocent mistake? Your interpretation of his vote analysis should conclude he could be up to something. An Oak would not be able to say for certain why that weird definition of votes that matter was happening. And I'd say he was proactive but not anti-Maple. Especially with his panicked fishing at the beginning of Day 6.

In looking at your interaction it does look like you guys wanted to appear to not be on the same side. Lassie did an awesome analysis of who probably weren't working together earlier on and couldn't read Jack. Couldn't clear him from working with anybody. I don't look at your interaction throughout the game and conclude that you're not on the same team. And the things you point to as your innocence, the suspicion from Jack and spearheading the codes would be WIFOM if you're Scum. Yes, it could mean you're an Oak but looking at what you asked us to, I feel a little more comfortable with the consensus to lynch you. I really hope we are right.

[Bob]

But it's not smart to set up codes. It restricts the scum heavily. That's why I thought the codes would work and proposed them. You can't just ignore all of things I've done that make far more sense for an oak to do just because you think I'm smart. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

If I remember correctly, Jack and Barry were also rooting heavily for the code system. Let's take a look back:

As far as the stump information goes, I've been pondering a strange idea that could pay off.

Perhaps in the event that someone dies later on, they could PM someone they trust with a list of their own specific codewords. For example, investigator=lemon, protector=banana, blocker=soldering iron, vigilante=donkey, vanilla=egg/shoelace/Kermit/Hammurabi, whatever. Once dead, the stump will then be able to reveal in thread their fellow stump roles without the maples being any the wiser (assuming they've talked to the right confidant, of course). That way, a stump could come out and say for example that Lauren was a desk lamp and Buck was a pony, which would make complete sense to whoever had been told the codewords. Obviously it may not work yet, since no one is confirmed at the moment, but it should be an effective way of communicating once we get an oak block established.

Adelaide brings up the idea pretty early up in the day. It doesn't get much mention and it eventually dissipates from the main conversation after awhile. Discontent with that, Adelaide brings it up a few more times.

My thinking is that if someone gives a set of codes to someone they trust before they die, they can pass on stump information to the person they trusted. Since the stumps can communicate with each other privately, they can pool their knowledge and pass it all on through code through the day threads without maples understanding.

Finally, after mentioning it quite a number of times throughout the day trying to revive it, she attracts the attention of someone:

I think there's some potential here... but as all the later discussion showed, this is way too vague. Care to explain in detail how it'd work and then let everyone pick their own code words/numbers and who to share their list with? Cause right now my puny little tree brain is struggling.

It's almost like the paid actor in the commercials who approaches the salesman in order to get information about the product out. "I'm very interested, good sir! Please tell me more!"

1) Pick someone you trust to be an oak

2) PM them with a code (eg. "Hi there, I'm about to be lynched or murdered or something. Here's a stump-code: investigator=9, vig=7.29, blocker=86, vanilla=6/8/98/104, etc...")

3) Die

4) Talk to other stumps in private, find out all of their roles

5) reveal the stump roles in public (eg. Hi there, I was just killed and now I'm a stump. Bernice Bush is a 6.7, Steven Soil is a 0, I'm a -9, etc...")

6) Person you gave your code to deciphers this message

7) Town block has some information.

8) Town wins game.

Thanks for this. I think it's a decent plan. Even if stumps don't stick around (we'll see tomorrow if they do or not), it could be useful. One improvement I might make - sending a code list to SEVERAL different people, using a different code for each person. Then, hopefully when you need to use it, you'll have someone you can trust. Heck, send a code set to every player since you don't know who will die when and who will turn up oak/maple yet.

"Well, you sure have convinced me! I'll definitely buy into your product!"

No need. Today everyone sends code lists to everyone else. Then tomorrow, once we have trusted stumps who HAVE THOSE CODE LISTS, everyone can claim to the stumps. Then the stumps could state publicly - hey, there's 2 people claiming vig, or whatever, if needed. AND if the stumps decided someone still alive was trusted (such as if one of the stumps was investigator and someone they'd cleared was still alive), they could use that person's code list to say in public that Joe is 13 and Sally is 1 and so forth, so at least someone would know who claimed roles and start talking to them in private.

Now Jack is all for the codes! But wait, look who else is all for the codes!

We have our first Lindsay stirling reference of the day...can't believe it took this long.

In terms of codes, I'll put some together and send it to someone...reckon it's worth a try.

Oh, it's Barry!

Each time the discussion turned away from Adelaide's codes she kept bringing them up, until finally she had her fellow teammate work with her to try and sell the codes. Then to lock it up, she had another fellow scum come in and promote the codes until we all started to do it. Now when she's confronted about it, she's screaming "I came up with the codes! I have to be town!"

Jack is confirmed scum and Barry is almost definitely scum. How much do you want to bet that Adelaide is too?

[Hinckley]

Jack is confirmed scum and Barry is almost definitely scum. How much do you want to bet that Adelaide is too?

Or he's a neutral bomb that converts to a killer on Day 4...

[MagPiesRUs]

And then he repeats the confusion about the same post Adelaide quoted to me in private. Odd that they both responded the same way to the same post. And Jack clarified it over 48 hours before Adelaide uses that excuse for me in private.

That's an unfortunate coincidence. I do remember that quote from Jack, but I didn't remember anyone addressing it. It looks like you provided a short answer soon after, but I must have missed it. Were I scum, I would have paid closer attention, as all information would likely be better organised on a writeboard or something similar.

No mention that I already clarified with him that he wasn't investigated. That would've made Adelaide's argument null.

Why would Jack attempt to discredit someone's defense of himself?

The way I interpret his final comment about me is that he was trying to maintain the illusion of being a townie so that it would affect the night actions last night. I'm guessing the maples fully expected the vig to target me last night, since I was the second most suspected person yesterday. Had he known I would survive the night, I suspect his comments would have been different.

He's defining votes that matter in a way you don't understand but you assume he's just making an innocent mistake? Your interpretation of his vote analysis should conclude he could be up to something. An Oak would not be able to say for certain why that weird definition of votes that matter was happening. And I'd say he was proactive but not anti-Maple. Especially with his panicked fishing at the beginning of Day 6.

I never ruled that out as a possibility. Taken as a whole however, I was getting a town-read on Jack.

If I remember correctly, Jack and Barry were also rooting heavily for the code system. Let's take a look back:

...

Jack is confirmed scum and Barry is almost definitely scum. How much do you want to bet that Adelaide is too?

So you think that everyone involved with the codes was scum, do you? Well, I don't know what to say. The codes have been extremely beneficial and could have potentially been even more if they had been utilised properly. The way I remember Day 2 was that I was constantly questioned about the code plan, and I kept answering any concerns. Why wouldn't I continue to push the idea of the codes anyway? They were going to work. Why would I give up on an idea I firmly believe in?

I could point out all of the other things I've done that make little sense for a maple to do (sticking with the vote against Peter, worrying about Hazel being a townie despite the advantage such an assumption would give the scum, not voting for Jack at the end of the day when it would make sense for a maple to just follow along...), but I'm guessing you'll all just dismiss all of it as WIFOM.

[Hinckley]

Why do I like this game?

I don't feel confident at all. Stumps? You think this is right still?

I should really look at all of the days again but this one Simon guys just keeps talking it's hard to read through them all. I will make time to do that.

[jimmynick]

So you think that everyone involved with the codes was scum, do you? Well, I don't know what to say. The codes have been extremely beneficial and could have potentially been even more if they had been utilised properly. The way I remember Day 2 was that I was constantly questioned about the code plan, and I kept answering any concerns. Why wouldn't I continue to push the idea of the codes anyway? They were going to work. Why would I give up on an idea I firmly believe in?

How do you know that?

Why do I like this game?

I don't feel confident at all. Stumps? You think this is right still?

I should really look at all of the days again but this one Simon guys just keeps talking it's hard to read through them all. I will make time to do that.

I think I speak for the stumps when I say we wouldn't be surprised if both Adelaide and Sue are anti-town, but a) we put Adelaide first and b) we think Sue is the SK and we don't want to lynch her then!