Tamamono Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 I'll consult with the other stumps about the meaning of this...
fhomess Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 But, did Walter tell you that Sue flipped Scum? No, just who was remaining. Did you get that bit? In the PM's you implied you didn't know either. So, are you suggesting I would be a Scum that the Scum clearly targeted last night and who let one of their own target a bomb? Actually, no you're right. That wouldn't make any sense. If the vig is dead, then the SK must've killed Sue. Simple then. You're the SK and Sammy is the scum. That's why you discussed Sue with me in PM last night. You wanted to protect against the situation where there was still a scum remaining. It's time for me to clock out of this game. I wish I could do this!
Hinckley Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 I suppose I could reveal the one part since everyone has mentioned their communications from Alder. There are two possibilities he listed as having one Maple left. So if he's listing it as a possibility, somehow it's possible. Lassie's post really pings me. Eventually Alder clarified he forgot to tell me who was left. He clarified something else that I need further clarification on and hopefully he'll allow me to share when he does. I can't help but let it affect my thinking. Right now it makes me lean more towards Sammy as Oak or SK and Lassie as Scum. It would certainly stick with the theme of all of my reads being wrong. However, I can't for my life figure out why anyone would suggest not voting. Yes the stumps told me not to vote, but Sammy suggested not voting because he thinks we will all win together. Someone who has played as much as him should know that if the three of us could win together, there wouldn't even be a day 8! Plus he seems to have been told Adelaide was Town as well. Is that what you were saying, Sammy? Lassie, did Alder tell you about Adelaide's affiliation as well? Sammy told us that he was told that Sue was a dead maple before the day started. I was told the same thing. No, just who was remaining. Did you get that bit? In the PM's you implied you didn't know either. Which is it, Lassie? At the moment, my gut is telling me that n4275 is MDDC. William already told me that when he died. That's not news.
jimmynick Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 Something that came up a long time ago was Lassie's reaction to my codes that I sent out. I sent codes to the following people: Simon, Clem, Bruce, Lassie, Jack, Sue, Adelaide and Barry. Lassie was dreadfully concerned that I provided codes for goon, godfather, rolecop and 3rd party roles. He told me that the point of codes was to hide information that would help the maples, and wondered how obscuring my suspicions was an effective strategy (he actually asked me how obscuring my suspicions helps "them", referring to maples). His response threw me off at the time, but I hadn't really thought about it until now, when he has to be either scum or an SK.
Hinckley Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 You average less than 10 posts a day and yet you say so much more in private. Our PM conversation is 124 messages long. I have trouble trusting someone who feels they need to play in private. You spent two days talking to me about Dragonfire's miller claim. Now that we know he's an Oak, that's suspect. Two days undermining a Townie. I thought he was Scum the way he was behaving and your suspicion wouldn't be suspicious if it wasn't coupled with other things. Like yesterday when you said Chester was your greatest suspicion and would we lynch him or would I be targeting him in the night? Fishing for night actions and suspecting another Townie, which made little sense to me since if you thought Hazel and Berty were both Scum I would imagine Chester would be somewhere in the middle range of your suspicion. Why would Hazel and Berty trying to lynch him be enough for the vig to target him? After telling me Chester was your top suspicion you went on to talk about how great the points that Sammy made were about Sue, Nash and Adelaide. However, you dismiss his suspicion of Sue and talk about Nash and Adelaide. The vig thought Nash was suspicious enough to kill him, granted, but there's another Townie you try to build a case against, in private. I found Nash and Berty both to be very Scummy too, but once a person shows up as Oak that would generally mean we can stop suspecting them. But not you. Today, you tried to base a theory off of who Berty said he'd be willing to vote for. Did you forget Berty's alignment had been revealed and you couldn't base things on him being Scum? Then, when I called you out on that, you bring up some theory about any group of four players contains two Scum or at least one. You even wrote it out algebraically. Something like b=u/ll*sh-it2. Your newest fun theory is that Bruce has been converted. Also, you started the day suspecting Sammy whose theories you liked yesterday. Lastly, for now, you keep fishing fishing fishing about the blocker in private and public. Why would an Oak need to know about the timing of me revealing that? This was pinged me earlier about Lassie. The points about dismissing suspicion of Sue and concentrating on Adelaide and Ash are more incriminating now. Plus she was poking about Chester the night Peter killed him. Sue hammered Jack. maybe Lassie started the vote so they could both hide in plain sight, as it were.
Hinckley Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 Imagine one of Sammy and Lassie is scum. Say Sammy, for example (it doesn't really matter), and therefore assume that Lassie is the SK. Day 7. Five alive - 2 scum, 1 SK, 2 townies. A townie (Adelaide) is lynched. Which leaves two scum, the SK, and you. Since scum have the majority, they auto-win. I don't know the mechanics of the SK role. When I've played with the SK before, its win condition was that it had to be one of two surviving players at the end of the game. Its existence did not prevent the scum from winning, but did prevent the town from winning. The more I think about this the more I can't understand where the numbers are or were. I should really learn to listen to you better. Walter lists one of each as a possible scenario. Oaks win if the Scum is lynched. If Lassie were non-Oak why wouldn't she just echo my suspicions of Sammy and be done with it? Meanwhile Sammy was suggesting we no-lynch. Either way, as a host, I think I would've ended it at Adealide's lynch. I'm at the gym but I'm going to check Mafiascum when I get home. Do we have EB precedence for this? Maybe Walter listed all possibilities to keep it fair to whoever might be left. If that is the case, then I would guess...oh God...now I understand what Sammy is suggesting. I need to slow down. Lassie please clarify the discrepancy I pointed out in your two statements about Sue's alignment.
fhomess Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 Which is it, Lassie? Ok, I went back and checked. I was told that Sue was dead. I apparently added the maple bit in my head because I had already read the opening of the day. I thought that you had said you weren't told who had died at all and that's what got me off on the line of thinking that you were being treated differently. I was told nothing about Adelaide's affiliation, either. Lassie was dreadfully concerned that I provided codes for goon, godfather, rolecop and 3rd party roles. He told me that the point of codes was to hide information that would help the maples, and wondered how obscuring my suspicions was an effective strategy (he actually asked me how obscuring my suspicions helps "them", referring to maples). His response threw me off at the time, but I hadn't really thought about it until now, when he has to be either scum or an SK. You were the first person who had sent me any codes that were non-specific. It struck me as odd at the time. Plus she was poking about Chester the night Peter killed him. Sue hammered Jack. maybe Lassie started the vote so they could both hide in plain sight, as it were. First off, I have poked on everyone at various times. Secondly, I wouldn't poke about Chester if I was part of a group that killed him that same night. Please give me some credit here. Most of what I do in these adventures is try to account for as many possibilities until the most logical one comes out. You're jumping on me because I happen to be the one who has spoken most recently. My vote on Jack came early in the day and I got a lot of heat for it at the time. You led that and then later voted with me. It was not the type of vote to hide behind. Sammy voted after you and Bruce did. With 3 votes on Jack, and 3 on Adelaide, they needed 2 votes to ensure a lynch and one of those had to be Adelaide's or a switch off of Jack since Sue was one of the 3 on Adelaide. They bussed him when it was clear getting a different lynch was too hard and then pushed for Adelaide the next day. Maybe Walter listed all possibilities to keep it fair to whoever might be left. If that is the case, then I would guess...oh God...now I understand what Sammy is suggesting. At least one of the remaining killers must be scum or we'd have won by now. Ergo, there are at least two killers remaining since whoever killed Sue is not dead. I'm ready to commit to this now: Vote: Sammy Sycamore (Fugazi)
Hinckley Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 I actually think I finally have the right read! Stumps, I wish I could communicate clearly. I think I know exactly what has happened. It's still possible,that it's slightly off but I now agree with Sammy about not voting today. I can't say why yet but I'll try to get you some info in code. All I needed was to slow down and read everything. Spaz Mafia is dangerous. Vote: Sammy Sycamore (Fugazi) Oh good, I can explain my thought process now. But I'll wait until I get home. Sammy, you're either Oak or SK, and I believe we can win with you if you are, so I won't be voting for you. Let's figure out if we want to lynch Lassie. If you aren't the SK, then you need to brush up your Town game. You're Scummy as hell
fhomess Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 Oh good, I can explain my thought process now. But I'll wait until I get home.Sammy, you're either Oak or SK, and I believe we can win with you if you are, so I won't be voting for you. Let's figure out if we want to lynch Lassie. You're mistaken. Sammy is scum. Since the vig is dead, no lynch places the game into the hands of the scum killer.
jimmynick Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 You were the first person who had sent me any codes that were non-specific. It struck me as odd at the time. Non-specific? You mean everyone else send you codes like "n3458=Barry Cherry is a neutral bomb that converts to a serial killer on Night 4"? I actually think I finally have the right read! Stumps, I wish I could communicate clearly. I think I know exactly what has happened. It's still possible,that it's slightly off but I now agree with Sammy about not voting today. I can't say why yet but I'll try to get you some info in code. At least two of the stumps agree with no-lynch anyway. You're mistaken. Sammy is scum. Since the vig is dead, no lynch places the game into the hands of the scum killer. Let's think about this in case of no-lynch: | |Scum kill |Scum no kill | |SK kill |Town win |SK+Town win | |SK no kill |Scum win |Day 8 redux | So if the SK wants a chance at winning, his best choice is to kill tonight in case of a no-lynch. And my table came out awfully. Oh well.
Hinckley Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 You're mistaken. Sammy is scum. Since the vig is dead, no lynch places the game into the hands of the scum killer. You played a great game, but you aren't an Oak. Here's one of those dramatic Mafia moments I just live for. The big reveal. I should probably wait for Sammy to answer my PM, but the more I think about it, the more I think he's Town. Maybe Serial Killer, but I don't think he would've made himself so conspicuously Scummy if he were that. Sammy, you may call me stubborn after this but I will just sit in my tunnel and plug my ears! Here's what I think. Sammy wasn't fishing. He was trying to talk to us about if there was possibly still a Scum killer. Because, guess what? If he's Town and Lassie is SK, the Oaks have already won. He was trying to find out if there was a way a Scum killer had been blocked or were they just gone. Because if they are gone, he's suggesting that he's OK with the Serial Killer winning too. It's exactly what he said. If people would just listen to him already! If there are two Oaks and a Serial Killer, we're still here because the SK has a chance to win along with us. For reasons I'll save until later, the only reason I believe he would think this way is if he's an Oak. Thanks to Lassie for making a statement that caused me to take a closer look at things. I highly reccomend playing Mafia on a stair-master. It keeps you focused. Clears out the clutter. Anyway, if Sammy's the SK, then Lassie is Scum and we definitely need to lynch her. Maybe that's why Walter told Sammy Sue was Scum. It might've come up in talks about win conditions. Who knows? But why would he have known Adelaide's too, then? Damn it. I thought I was onto something. Maybe I still am. So, the serial killer would have to kill both Townies to win and if Lassie is SK and Sammy is Town and we lynch him, she kills me at night and wins. So, if we wait until the night time, she can only kill one of us and then she wins along with us. If she's Scum wouldn't she just win by killing either one of us, too? Wait, no. She would get killed by the SK unless she kills him today. That's why she started the day poking both of us! So she is Scum and Sammy is the SK, that's why he's suggesting we all win together! Because he likes us. I should get back on the Stairmaster. I think I'm losing my clarity. But maybe I am right. Lassie is Scum so she started the day by poking both of us to see how we reacted. Sammy was suggesting a no-lynch to be nice and let everybody (except the Scum) win and Lassie is sure of that after seeing our reactions and tried to kill him. Right? I shouldn't type my thoughts out as I have them. Sorry. I shouldn't have posted all that I'm re-reading it to try to weed out the crazy and see if we can salvage anything from it. One things for sure, I need another break from Mafia. My reads suck! Get it? That's why he wanted to know if we had a way to protect or block. Sammy, has it been that long that you've forgotten that killing Scum doesn't block their kill? OK, Sorry, one more post. If Lassie is the SK, then Waldorf got the right reads, naive or not!
fhomess Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 Non-specific? You mean everyone else send you codes like "n3458=Barry Cherry is a neutral bomb that converts to a serial killer on Night 4"? Sorry, non-town specific. Let's think about this in case of no-lynch:| |Scum kill |Scum no kill | |SK kill |Town win |SK+Town win | |SK no kill |Scum win |Day 8 redux | I can't read that. There is one of each affiliation right? The vig is dead so the SK can't be and the scum must be here, too. The scum will definitely kill, so one of the SK or town will die. The SK will also kill, because that's the only way to take out the scum killer in a no lynch situation. Either the scum or town will die. Scum kills SK, SK kills Scum, town wins Scum kills Town, SK kills Scum, SK wins Scum kills Town, SK kills Town, no one wins Scum kills SK, SK kills Town, Scum wins There is only a 1 in 4 chance of the town winning if we go to night actions. If there are two Oaks and a Serial Killer, we're still here because the SK has a chance to win along with us. No, that was never a possibility. The oaks win when the maples are gone. Here's the thing, Sammy needed to find the SK in order to win. With a living killer, he would have to take out the killer to make sure the killer could not take him out. Sammy wasn't fishing for a scum killer, he was fishing for whether or not there was an SK or a Vig left.
Hinckley Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 No, that was never a possibility. I believe you are mistaken about that. Here's the thing, Sammy needed to find the SK in order to win. With a living killer, he would have to take out the killer to make sure the killer could not take him out. Sammy wasn't fishing for a scum killer, he was fishing for whether or not there was an SK or a Vig left. So then you're confessing to being the Serial Killer?
MagPiesRUs Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 The scum will definitely kill, so one of the SK or town will die. The SK will also kill, because that's the only way to take out the scum killer in a no lynch situation. Either the scum or town will die. Scum kills SK, SK kills Scum, town wins Scum kills Town, SK kills Scum, SK wins Scum kills Town, SK kills Town, no one wins Scum kills SK, SK kills Town, Scum wins If you think you're the only oak left, and you know that your only chance of winning is a no-lynch today, why did you vote for Sammy?
StickFig Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 Wow, get pulled away for a few days and everything goes crazy. I'm sure I'm the only one who still thinks that Simon is a Maple.
Walter Kovacs Posted March 5, 2015 Author Posted March 5, 2015 There is a lot of confusion about the PMs all three players received, and it's my fault. I wanted all three players to know that they could win, and what conditions they needed to achieve the win. In doing this, I inadvertently let it slip that Sue (Bob) was scum early. I should have chosen my words better, and I apologize to all three remaining players. My hope is that this information hasn't affected the final day too much, but I'm afraid it has. Again, I am heartily sorry for the slip up.
fhomess Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 So then you're confessing to being the Serial Killer? No. You're the SK. If you think you're the only oak left, and you know that your only chance of winning is a no-lynch today, why did you vote for Sammy? Because if we lynch the remaining scum, the SK isn't obliged to kill anymore. It opens up the possibility of an additional win condition, with both parties winning. Yes, that condition is dependent on a sympathetic SK, but I would rather leave that option open to him than allow for the alternative.
Fugazi Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 Wow, this is so much fun! Okay, let's recap. Before the start of the day I was informed that Maple Sue was dead, and I assumed that Adelaide flipped Oak (because I wasn't told anything about her). I shared this information with Simon and Lassie because I mistakingly believed that everyone would be given the same information regardless of their allegiance. It doesn't really matter, because people can lie about what they are told. But since I was being told about only one kill, I asked the others ot think whether they ha the means to block the scum kill. If they had no way (say by blocking, protecting, redirecting actions) it meant that scum didn't attempt to kill last night, and therefore that there wasn't any left. If there was no scum, we could simply refrain from lynching and let the SK win with town. That was before Day 8 was posted, so before we learned that someone attempted to kill Simon. It does change everything, because there might still be two killers in the forest, one that killed Sue and another who tried on Simon. Since it would appear that the vig is dead, only the SK could have killed Sue. That leaves two options: Simon was targeted by Sue, or by another scum. In either case, Simon can't be the last scum. That's a good thing, because with Lassie's vote we can't lynch Simon anymore. So from my perspective Lassie can be scum (even though Day 8 might have ended with Adelaide's lynch), SK or Oak. Simon can be SK or Oak. Lassie and Simon can't both be Oak or we wouldn't be here. Lassie doesn't have to be scum -- maybe the purpose of the day is to determine if the SK wins along with town. Actually, there must be scum left. That is what the rules say. If all the scum are dead, the town wins. The rules also say that if the scum outnumber the voting members of the town, they win. They haven't won yet, so they did not at any point outnumber the town. So how would that work? The only way for that to work is for there to be no serial killer. (anymore) So yesterday it was Simon, Sammy, Sue, Adelaide, Lassie. I think Sammy is scum that is why he's red, but I'll get to that. With Adelaide lynched there would be two scum, two town. How they must have been celebrating. There can't be a serial killer. If there is a serial killer the scum would have won last night. And now we have two town and one scum left. With Sammy's weird talk of not voting to win, it can only be him. Of course, it can also be that there is a Maple separate from the other maples that is also neutral. But that would be stupid. There has to be a serial killer. Apparently the vig is dead, and why would anyone lie about it now? The stumped vig can tell us if need be. And if the vig is dead, who killed Sue? There must be a serial killer. The only way we'd still be here if it were 2 oaks and an SK based on how the rules are worded is if the SK's win condition supercedes the oaks and hasn't been met or we've been given partial information. After all, we did have a rules adjustment when the stumps turned up and the maples had to kill off all the voting oaks. The difference is that didn't fundamentally change the maples' goal, just clarified it in the wake of an unexpected twist. I find it suspicious that while you've probably been given the same information the rest of us have, you still choose to interpret it in a twisted way. Why do you think the SK's win condition supercedes the Oaks? So right now, Sammy seems like the logical choice to be voted out as the most likely scum. SK and oaks win. So you're saying that SK wins with one Oak left, but not with two? I suppose I could reveal the one part since everyone has mentioned their communications from Alder. There are two possibilities he listed as having one Maple left. So if he's listing it as a possibility, somehow it's possible. Lassie's post really pings me. Eventually Alder clarified he forgot to tell me who was left. He clarified something else that I need further clarification on and hopefully he'll allow me to share when he does. I can't help but let it affect my thinking. Right now it makes me lean more towards Sammy as Oak or SK and Lassie as Scum. It would certainly stick with the theme of all of my reads being wrong. However, I can't for my life figure out why anyone would suggest not voting. Yes the stumps told me not to vote, but Sammy suggested not voting because he thinks we will all win together. Someone who has played as much as him should know that if the three of us could win together, there wouldn't even be a day 8! Plus he seems to have been told Adelaide was Town as well. Is that what you were saying, Sammy? No, I wasn't told that Adelaide was town, it was my assumption based on the other information I was given. Which is why I said "probably Town" in my PM. The not voting bit made sense when I thought there had been only one kill and is why I asked you about possible blockers/protectors/etc. Given that I believed SK could win with town, it made sense not to vote. Now that we've seen two kills/kill attempts, there's no guarantee there's no scum left, and unless we have proof that Lassie is not scum we should probably lynch. The more I think about this the more I can't understand where the numbers are or were. I should really learn to listen to you better. Walter lists one of each as a possible scenario. Oaks win if the Scum is lynched. If Lassie were non-Oak why wouldn't she just echo my suspicions of Sammy and be done with it? Meanwhile Sammy was suggesting we no-lynch. Either way, as a host, I think I would've ended it at Adealide's lynch. I'm at the gym but I'm going to check Mafiascum when I get home. Do we have EB precedence for this? Maybe Walter listed all possibilities to keep it fair to whoever might be left. If that is the case, then I would guess...oh God...now I understand what Sammy is suggesting. I kind of thought there couldn't be two scum at the end of Day 7 but I'm not so sure anymore. After Adelaide's lynch it might have been fair to let scum win, but with the SK wildcard I can see how Alder might have waited until after the night actions to decide. Ok, I went back and checked. I was told that Sue was dead. I apparently added the maple bit in my head because I had already read the opening of the day. I thought that you had said you weren't told who had died at all and that's what got me off on the line of thinking that you were being treated differently. I was told nothing about Adelaide's affiliation, either. At least one of the remaining killers must be scum or we'd have won by now. Ergo, there are at least two killers remaining since whoever killed Sue is not dead. I'm ready to commit to this now: Vote: Sammy Sycamore (Fugazi) Again, you seem to be disregarding the information you were given. I agree the scenario with two Oaks and the SK is a bit hard to believe, but if there's a scum here today it's you, not me. I actually think I finally have the right read! Stumps, I wish I could communicate clearly. I think I know exactly what has happened. It's still possible,that it's slightly off but I now agree with Sammy about not voting today. I can't say why yet but I'll try to get you some info in code. All I needed was to slow down and read everything. Spaz Mafia is dangerous. Oh good, I can explain my thought process now. But I'll wait until I get home. Sammy, you're either Oak or SK, and I believe we can win with you if you are, so I won't be voting for you. Let's figure out if we want to lynch Lassie. If you aren't the SK, then you need to brush up your Town game. You're Scummy as hell If I look scummy, I'm a victim of circumstances just like Berty. I'm not sure about not voting anymore. Let me think this through. If Lassie is scum, Simon must be SK: from Lassie's perspective, she can win by lynching me or taking her chances tonight. She then kills me and hopes that Simon also targets me. But if Simon targets Lassie, town wins. If Lassie is SK and Simon is Oak: from Lassie's perspective, she can win by lynching me or she can kill me tonight and win along with Simon. However if there's no lynch she might be afraid that I can kill her tonight. In which case only town wins (Simon). You're mistaken. Sammy is scum. Since the vig is dead, no lynch places the game into the hands of the scum killer. Not quite, since there's still the SK. If SK and scum target each other, town wins. So if the SK wants a chance at winning, his best choice is to kill tonight in case of a no-lynch. If there's no scum left, they don't need to kill. But yeah, I guess they'd be better off by killing. Here's one of those dramatic Mafia moments I just live for. The big reveal. I should probably wait for Sammy to answer my PM, but the more I think about it, the more I think he's Town. Maybe Serial Killer, but I don't think he would've made himself so conspicuously Scummy if he were that. Sammy, you may call me stubborn after this but I will just sit in my tunnel and plug my ears! Here's what I think. Sammy wasn't fishing. He was trying to talk to us about if there was possibly still a Scum killer. Because, guess what? If he's Town and Lassie is SK, the Oaks have already won. He was trying to find out if there was a way a Scum killer had been blocked or were they just gone. Because if they are gone, he's suggesting that he's OK with the Serial Killer winning too. It's exactly what he said. If people would just listen to him already! If there are two Oaks and a Serial Killer, we're still here because the SK has a chance to win along with us. For reasons I'll save until later, the only reason I believe he would think this way is if he's an Oak. Thanks to Lassie for making a statement that caused me to take a closer look at things. Thay much is true. Anyway, if Sammy's the SK, then Lassie is Scum and we definitely need to lynch her. Maybe that's why Walter told Sammy Sue was Scum. It might've come up in talks about win conditions. Who knows? But why would he have known Adelaide's too, then? Damn it. I thought I was onto something. Maybe I still am. I'm not the SK. And I wasn't told that Adelaide is Oak. So, the serial killer would have to kill both Townies to win and if Lassie is SK and Sammy is Town and we lynch him, she kills me at night and wins. So, if we wait until the night time, she can only kill one of us and then she wins along with us. The SK should know they don't need to kill anyone but the scum. If Lassie is SK, we don't need to lynch her because the town has already won. It doesn't actually matter if she kills one of us at night. On the other hand, if she's scum she needs to go. If she's Scum wouldn't she just win by killing either one of us, too? Wait, no. She would get killed by the SK unless she kills him today. That's why she started the day poking both of us! So she is Scum and Sammy is the SK, that's why he's suggesting we all win together! Because he likes us. Yeah, if Lassie is scum she can make sure to win by lynching me, or she can chance it out tonight. But if I'm the SK I know I shouldn't kill Simon. However if Simon is the SK he might decide to kill me tonight, in which case scum wins -- and SK too, I suppose. Get it? That's why he wanted to know if we had a way to protect or block. Sammy, has it been that long that you've forgotten that killing Scum doesn't block their kill? Uh? Ah I see your point, even if Sue was killed at least one scum kill must have registered... or be blocked. It doesn't mean there can't be a scum left. The scum will definitely kill, so one of the SK or town will die. The SK will also kill, because that's the only way to take out the scum killer in a no lynch situation. Either the scum or town will die. Scum kills SK, SK kills Scum, town wins Scum kills Town, SK kills Scum, SK wins Scum kills Town, SK kills Town, no one wins Scum kills SK, SK kills Town, Scum wins There is only a 1 in 4 chance of the town winning if we go to night actions. Scum kills Town, SK kills Town, no one wins? I would think scum wins, and possibly SK too. Either way, you are correct that going to night actions is not an option if there's a scum among us. No, that was never a possibility. The oaks win when the maples are gone. Here's the thing, Sammy needed to find the SK in order to win. With a living killer, he would have to take out the killer to make sure the killer could not take him out. Sammy wasn't fishing for a scum killer, he was fishing for whether or not there was an SK or a Vig left. Why? It's obvious there's a non-scum killer left, what difference does it make if it's a SK or Vig?
Tamamono Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 Actually, yeah, the rules say that we win when all Maples are gone. The SK should claim and we should lynch the last scum.
Fugazi Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 Actually, yeah, the rules say that we win when all Maples are gone. The SK should claim and we should lynch the last scum. If true, then Lassie is scum and Simon is SK. Bulletproof SK? I guess it's possible. Let's make this easy. I will vote Lassie, because Simon can't be scum. Simon knows that if he's SK, there's a chance both Lassie and I are town. He knows he will win by lyching either one of us. If he really wants to take a chance, he can also vote for himself and let everyone live. I don't advise this anymore, as we don't know for sure there's no scum left. On the other hand, if he's simple Oak he needs to lynch. There can be at most one scum and certainly one SK, so he will have to choose and lynch the right tree. Vote: Lassie Sassafras (fhomess)
Hinckley Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 This game is such a roller coaster. I need to take a look at the day...probably everything...and figure out what to do. I'll try to be as quick as possible.
Dragonfire Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 Don't leave me alone here! I'm scared... Stumps!!! OK, We don't need to megabluck the codes. I have something. ALDR SUXT 1 PSBL n3372 n4209 n6609 n7019 doesn't want BREK ROL5, but n3610 n4209, maybe. You have to do a little work there. Sorry... Gotcha. Thanks for the codes The more I think about this the more I can't understand where the numbers are or were. I should really learn to listen to you better. Walter lists one of each as a possible scenario. Oaks win if the Scum is lynched. If Lassie were non-Oak why wouldn't she just echo my suspicions of Sammy and be done with it? Meanwhile Sammy was suggesting we no-lynch. Yes, you should listen to us more. Stumps know best . Either way, as a host, I think I would've ended it at Adealide's lynch. I agree. However, it seems likely that Alder has not done this. There is only a 1 in 4 chance of the town winning if we go to night actions. You forgot Simon's bulletproof ability. He can't be killed at night. At all. So town can't lose, unless the SK dies and the Maple doesn't. In either case, Simon can't be the last scum. That's a good thing, because with Lassie's vote we can't lynch Simon anymore. I agree. If Simon's the SK, then he hasn't been doing that bad of a job at night- he's been taking out scum or scummy Townies. So from my perspective Lassie can be scum (even though Day 8 might have ended with Adelaide's lynch), SK or Oak. Simon can be SK or Oak. Lassie and Simon can't both be Oak or we wouldn't be here. Lassie doesn't have to be scum -- maybe the purpose of the day is to determine if the SK wins along with town. Judging by the win conditions, there's probably a Maple left alive. From your PoV, it has to be Lassie. If I look scummy, I'm a victim of circumstances just like Berty. Too true I'm not sure about not voting anymore. Let me think this through.If Lassie is scum, Simon must be SK: from Lassie's perspective, she can win by lynching me or taking her chances tonight. She then kills me and hopes that Simon also targets me. But if Simon targets Lassie, town wins. If Lassie is SK and Simon is Oak: from Lassie's perspective, she can win by lynching me or she can kill me tonight and win along with Simon. However if there's no lynch she might be afraid that I can kill her tonight. In which case only town wins (Simon). So basically, you benefit by not lynching today. The SK can't win with scum. Assuming the first possibility is true, Simon benefits from killing Lassie at night, whereas Lassie can choose who to kill, basically being the kingmaker between town and the SK. But I disagree. You are most likely the SK in this situation. Actually, yeah, the rules say that we win when all Maples are gone. The SK should claim and we should lynch the last scum. I actually agree with this. Assuming there is a SK, a Maple and a townie, the SK can only win with town unless Simon is the SK (in which case he can win alone if there's a no-lynch and Lassie targets Sammy tonight). However, this is unlikely. The SK cannot win with the Maples. Why else would the game not have finished yesterday with Adelaide's lynch? Maples cannot win unless the SK is dead. It is beneficial for the SK to claim. If the SK is lynched, town loses. Therefore it is not in the Oaks' interests to lynch the SK today. SK, you have no fear of being lynched today. Claim please. If true, then Lassie is scum and Simon is SK. Bulletproof SK? I guess it's possible. Let's make this easy. I will vote Lassie, because Simon can't be scum. Simon knows that if he's SK, there's a chance both Lassie and I are town. He knows he will win by lyching either one of us. If he really wants to take a chance, he can also vote for himself and let everyone live. I don't advise this anymore, as we don't know for sure there's no scum left. On the other hand, if he's simple Oak he needs to lynch. There can be at most one scum and certainly one SK, so he will have to choose and lynch the right tree. Vote: Lassie Sassafras (fhomess) This game is such a roller coaster. I need to take a look at the day...probably everything...and figure out what to do. I'll try to be as quick as possible. Simon is Town. Any SK in Simon's position (holding the hammer between two other players) could easily just vote without caring and whoosh! win the game. Any Maple in Simon's position could do the same. Therefore Simon is town. Which means that he needs to hammer the Maple out of the two of you. SK, I'm speaking directly to you, whoever you are. You can win today, with Town, if you claim now. Simon will hammer the scum and you two can win.
Fugazi Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 You forgot Simon's bulletproof ability. He can't be killed at night. At all. So town can't lose, unless the SK dies and the Maple doesn't. Simon wasn't killed last night. Doesn't mean that he's bulletproof forever, and your being a stump doesn't mean he needs to tell you the whole truth. Especially if he's actually SK. It is beneficial for the SK to claim. If the SK is lynched, town loses. Therefore it is not in the Oaks' interests to lynch the SK today. SK, you have no fear of being lynched today. Claim please. That should be interesting. Simon is Town. Any SK in Simon's position (holding the hammer between two other players) could easily just vote without caring and whoosh! win the game. You just said that SK cannot win with scum. If they lynch the Oak, won't they lose?
jimmynick Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 This game is such a roller coaster. I need to take a look at the day...probably everything...and figure out what to do. I'll try to be as quick as possible. Live or die, make your choice.
Hinckley Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 No. You're the SK. If Lassie thinks this is true but voted for Sammy, then she has to be the Serial Killer herself. The Scum would want to take the Serial Killer out. And judging by Sammy's behavior, I believe–finally–that he is an Oak as well. I'm an Oak so I think we should not lynch. It's been a crazy game and I like the idea of us winning together. Can I abstain Alder? I don't want to vote for myself. This game so weird, I'm afraid I'd self-destruct or something. Live or die, make your choice. Eeeew! That freaked me out. Do you think I made the right choice? Abstaining is the right move, right? Where's Alder? Wait, please. Let me make sure the Stumps think this is the right move.
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