Pelly's Paradise Day Three: Death Knocks Thrice

[fhomess]

So... while I'm working on the jluck case...

Mencot told Tammo about the bomb on day 1. Mostly, who did you tell about the bomb?

[Piratedave84]

I'm short on time so I'll vote: Brickelodeon

I'm almost convinced you are scum due to your non committal vote on a lynch you gave us for trying to turn the tables on me after it was clear you trusted me and for your wishy-washy-ness votes today and yesterday.

Unless someone contacts me in private my vig kill, I will withhold my ability for tonight.

Wrong format

vote: Brickelodeon (Brickelodeon)

[mostlytechnic]

I told no one about the bomb.

And whybis everyone so paranoid about losing the big costume when we're in for a second night of not using it? Glad I've kept my vote then.

And just because you don't use it doesn't mean it can't get stolen....

[fhomess]

Ok, here's a review of jluck's contributions. jluck, THIS is your life!

(Surrounded by spoiler tags with summary at the end. Apologies for any mistakes as I did edit this in a text editor so as to avoid losing work)

Day 1, post 121:

I'm pretty sure we can PM each other, we just can't quote the PMs we receive from the host.

The real disadvantage for town is that the scum have an estimated 5 players, and therefore figure out what 5 costumes do every night. So we should expect that by day 3, the scum team will be zeroing in on certain costumes. Whoever gets the investigator role had better start building a town block pronto, were gonna need it.

There's really nothing of substance here. Just comments on mechanics.

Day 1, post 131:

Wow, so to clarify, you've just claimed vig, just like that? I was all for those who were lynched to reveal their role, but this is unprecedented. Oh well, the die has been cast, this could really change the game.

In response to Tammo's post where he claimed vig. It doesn't come across as genuine at all to me.

Day 1, post 140:

We can either play the vig a few different ways.

1) lynch the first person who goes for vig-im against this. In the end it'll be assigned to someone anyway.

2) someone claim vig and use it at their own discretion.

3) the vig kills whoever the town votes for them to kill-I rather like this one.

I omitted some pointless chatter about godfather fear mongering. He proposes 3 ways to play the vig. Nothing particularly good or bad about this post, IMO.

Those in favor of #3 were Brickelodeon, Lind Whisperer, Dave, and Bob. Bob qualified his response by saying he didn't want the name broadcast publicly (post 145).

Day 1, post 154:

So we know one suit and that should make the vig at least somewhat manageable, regardless of how it's handled. What do the other suits do? Previous parties of a similar nature have included:

Bomb

Thief

Double vote

Unkillable

Quicksilver (I don't know this role. mafiascum, here I come)

Doctor

Watcher

Flavor cop

Tracker

Etc.

I tried naming all the major roles, there are quite a few.

I think it's safe to speculate that at least the majority of the above are involved in this situation.

jluck never followed up on the quicksilver role, and no one else did either. Again, I don't see how this was particularly helpful, but it LOOKS helpful.

Day 1, post 166:

I agree with the logic stated here (see post #95 for the quotes being examined). Something has seemed off the entire day with Walter. He's been eager to accuse while Also trying to buddy up with those that start "barking up his tree" as seen below and pointed out by Brickelodeon.

He also PMed me early on but there wasn't much that came from that.

vote: the flash (Walter Kovacs)

This vote is based strongly on a hunch, but that's more than I normally go off of on day 1.

Here, he's jumping in as the second vote for Walter. This is in response to Brickelodeon's vote for Walter which had a bit more of a concrete argument.

Day 1, post 190:

Walter Kovacs, on 06 April 2015 - 06:38 AM, said:

@ jluck: I'm sorry you found my early PM scummy. But I've said it in previous games, I like to talk to players privately, and liberally use PMs on Day 1. Usually early PMs are merely Ice-breakers. It's the way I play, and if you look at my record, I've started as Town in every single game I've played (why do I suddenly see meta-game votes coming my way; "he's never been scum before, he must be scum now" ).

(Snip)

Walter, don't get me wrong, that's not the reason I voted for you In fact, if I recall correctly I didn't point out your early PM as a reason for suspicion at all, I just wanted to be interest above board with our interaction. I actually prefer folks to PM, this game should be played on multiple layers and you've always opened lines of communication. All this stated however, my reasons for my vote still stand. I just can't escape this nagging feeling about you.

Here's further justification for his vote against Walter but it does strike me as fairly weak. Hard to get too worked up over a weak day 1 vote, though.

Day 1, Post 207:

If he died, then the hat dies with him. By declaring the role, he saves himself and the power role. Seems to me that his willingness to die has kept him alive. In my opinion, it seems this move could just as easily being a scum using his cards right. I'm just still skeptical...

This is after people start to unvote Walter because he says he thinks the Thief might not be a bad thing for town to lose. He doesn't seem at all concerned that Walter revealed such a powerful role with just 2 votes on him.

It was not long after this that I voted for him on Day 1, and he didn't comment again in response.

Day 2, post 67 (first one of day 2):

After reading through everything, I think this sums it up well. 4 kills would seem really excessive, so I'm inclined to think we have some well-played redirecting going on. Here's my current inclination, both tamamono and Brickelodeon are town leans. They've both put themselves far too out there...really risky territory for a scumo. So something has to give. Itd make sense that anyone with a redirect ability would target tamamono (guys, we've been a bit loose revealing roles I fear). Tamamono made no secret what his role was so scum could easily target it. I'm still puzzling over the cop result. Could be an insane cop, but I'm not convinced.

First he says that Tammo put himself too far out there to be scum, then says that a redirect action makes sense to use on Tammo. The last comment about the cop's sanity is EXTREMELY non-committal. Could be insane, but he isn't convinced. If he's not convinced, then he should think that the result is accurate.

Day 2, post 91:

I think we've now revealed over half the costumes in some manner or another, doesn't this concern anyone else?

We weren't quite to half, but relatively close. Of course, several of those were already gone, so we were well short of half of the remaining costumes. Still, not a ton here to complain about.

Day 2, post 99, jluck grabs Storm's lightning, avoiding the vig.

Day 2, post 143:

So much suspicious activity! Tamamono has been investigated as scum. I see no reason to doubt that as it would be difficult to lie about. So the remaining question is, was it a legitimate result?

Here's a thought...could the person who chose the possibly insane investigator role investigate themself? I don't know if the rules allow it but it would give us a definite answer regarding the investigation.

Here he's casually discrediting the investigation result and looking for a way to keep Tammo around.

Day 2, post 143 (continued):

Seems like this move isn't grtting discussed enough yet. On any other day you'd likely have already been chased out of town. It's bold of you and if your town, I understand where this is coming from, but it makes me uneasy.

This is in response to my vig claim. Again, it's rather non-committal.

Day 2, post 145:

If he's scum, then your result would be town if the role was insane cop. But if we do confirm its an insane cop, we then have a legitimate cop by just reversing the results of the investigation. If dragonator died with a cop role, we may only have one cop left, unless there truly is a flavor cop too.

Exclusively mechanics.

Day 2, post 179:

This conversation has gone far enough down this path. We've pretty much ignored every other candidate since we've been focused on tamamono. Let's keep him in mind, but can we please discuss other candidates? Like fhomess? Because if we don't plan to lynch him, we at least need to be sure we control his action tonight. And if he's town, that would dictate how the other night actions are used.

Wanting to move on from Tammo/Shadows/Brick conversation. This one starts out well, even if it's aimed at me, but it doesn't lead to anything. It dies at the point of committing to a vote. It doesn't suggest anything in terms of how to control my action or how to vet whether or not I'm town despite saying we need to do that.

Day 2, post 202:

Ok let's run some numbers. I'm going to start by assuming we do have 3 cops, including the flavor cop. My logical conclusion from this is that the of the other two cops one is legitimate and the other is insane/paranoid. That means that the tamamono investigation has a 50/50 chance of being the true cop. However, I was rather convinced by tamamono's work on day 1 and his defense, so I've actually swung the numbers in his favor, say 65/35 that tamamono is innocent. Now the other side of the equation. This game started with 20 players, so I've assumed 5 scum. We've lost 3 townies so now we have a 5/17 scum percentage. Based on my (rough) calculations, we have a 29% chance of finding scum via random vote, while I've given tamamono a 35% chance of being scum. Unless a better option is presented, the numbers are inclining me to vote tamamono.

Here, he's justifying a vote for Tammo based on the mathematical odds that Tammo is scum. This is a terrible way to justify things and something a townie would never do. In fact, if he were to run the analysis on anyone else, he should get them as MORE likely to be scum because no one has a true 50/50 chance of being scum. Despite this convincing, he never votes for Tammo. Instead...

Day 2, post 214:

Hmmm...

How much time do we have left? Seems we should still be able to turn this around if that's a role we have. Townies, if you got the bus driver role, could you possibly confirm it to someone you trust? I feel tamamono's life may henge on it.

He's trying to get Tammo off the hook. Latches on to the bus driver commment. Doesn't question it, but seems eager to get Tammo off the hook.

Day 2, post 219:

Tamamono, I would certainly be willing to entertain the Lind argument. I'm at work so I can't go through his posts right now, but his recent work hasn't helped him build up my confidence in him.

Tammo asks him specifically about Lind after unvoting Shadows. Here's his chance to cast his vote:

Day 2, post 222

Ok, let's get the momentum going on a different direction. Brickalodeon started the lynch of tamamono and he's not convinced so I'm certainly not either. I agree that we should carefully watch the night results and figure out what kind of cop we have left. Could the flavor cop tell us if the cop is insane/paranoid? Also, I know someone said its not legal but piratedave could you at least confirm with def that you can't investigate yourself to see if the cop is giving legit results?

In the mean time I will

vote: gandolph (Lind Wisperer)

Because if feel we have more to gain with getting rid of him then tamamono.

Dragonfire, you had the Mr Freeze Coolant on day 1, would it be terrible for the town to lose it?

This is less than an hour after his response to Tammo. It's basically a vote of convenience. In the meantime, he's helped ensure that another item's action was revealed. This is in contrast to his earlier concern that we were revealing too many actions.

Day 2, post 265:

Well guys, I don't know about you but I feel pretty lost. It seems like most everyone thinks tamamono is town-ish and yet it's highly likely he's getting lynched. Usually, we go looking for scum, but now we've become distracted by the roles. I know people are worried about which roles will benefit scum, and that's a legitimate concern, but if we don't start catching scum soon, it won't matter which roles we've eliminated cuz the town will be eliminated. I don't have any good answers, especially since Lind is bulletproof, but it seems like we're walking a dangerous line.

Here it sounds like he doesn't want to lose Lind's action but he doesn't bother to unvote him.

On to Day 3:

1. Blackbeard's Shag Brickelodeon

2. War Machine's Similar Helmet

3. Joker's Silly Green Hair

4. Iron Patriot's Helmet jluck

5. Aquaman's Coif

Brick, I had serious doubt last night about the lynch, well done.

Here we see him quickly take what we now know is the bomb.

Sorry, is already selected. But I highly doubt id be a candidate for the vig anyway. Still, let's leave the vig unchosen until the investigation is revealed. If you take the vig before we have a confirmed townie, I'll vote for you.

This post came slightly later but is in response to a post that was posted before his selection of the bomb. It's clear he was in a rush to grab the bomb.

He also comments that he will vote for anyone who takes the vig before a confirmed townie is revealed.

I don't think we should make that decision until we get some more results in. There were lots of night actions last night, so there's no reason to rush to judgement.

Here he's responding to Brickelodeon's suggestion that the Dave should take the vig and what do people think. It suggests to me, at least, the jluck and dave are not both scum, but it is interesting to note that he never got upset with Dave for snatching the vig the way he did with me.

I can confirm the the helmet is a bomb, though I did not expect the info to get out. At this point we must work under the assumption that the scum know most, if not all, roles. With around 7 roles revealed on the boards, and the scum having (I'd assume) at least 10 costume picked in the first 2 days, there cant be much they don't know.

This is after Mencot mentions that the he told Tammo about the bomb. Again, he's got a concerned attitude about revealing roles publicly.

I don't see any disadvantage in revealing. The result will come to light sooner or later in terms of who selects what.

This is in relation to having Dave reveal who he investigated.

At this point I'd like to assume Mencot is town. His choice of storms lightning shows he doesn't have much knowledge of the action attached to it.

If he were scum, I'd think he'd have chosen differently.

This is an interesting comment. If Mencot is scum, it would easily explain why he has no issue saying he told Tammo about the bomb. Telling the vig about the bomb, if you think the vig is town, is a pretty townie thing to do. You don't want the vig to accidentally get killed. But what if Mencot is scum and jluck is scum with him? Maybe the scum are taking a dud role here and there to throw off suspicion? I don't know... that's starting to sound a bit weaker. They're probably not both scum.

With the information that Tammo was indeed scum now confirmed, I think his posts do implicate Zepher. Whenever I play as scum, I try to hedge my position by assuring that my death will cause as much confusion as possible. Tammo claiming to have targeted Zepher is a great way to distance the two of them. Dragonfire has built a great case so I will

vote: mr freeze (Zepher)

Voting for Zepher with the 2nd vote. He's been 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd with each of his votes.

I'm slightly concerned with our continual avoidance of lynches of strong scum candidates due to the costume they have. I know we want to preserve costumes, but if the scum continue to snatch those costumes up, they're useless to the town anyway. Say for instance Zepher is a doctor and scum but we spare him. We kill off 3 people tonight, get lucky and kill a scum. The scum could still grab the doctor costume tomorrow, it'd still be useless, and the town would be on the verge of distinction. Scum loss>costume loss.

*Extinction, not distinction.

I agree with the notion here, but it does strike me a bit as fishing for Zepher's action. Similar to how he reacted earlier.

Anybody...anybody??

Ok, well you have a higher probability of getting scum since we've lost so many townies. I think a calculated kill could be effective. Fhomess, Zepher, and Lind are my suggestions for your consideration.

This is in response to Dave's suggestion for vig kill proposals. He's the first person to suggest some names, and these are at least consistent with his day 2 and 3 accusations. Walter, who he voted for on Day 1, is absent.

I'll consider but I have my doubts...Tammo seemed really townie too. At some point were gonna lose these roles, and do you think the scum are going to let us get/use roles that they are well aware of? Is zepher's role more important than catching a scum?

This is in response to Brick taking his vote off Zepher and suggesting mostlytechnic as a candidate. Mostly was the one who had the bomb on night 2, grabbing it early one day before jluck did the same thing.

Is it truly scummy? It's lazy, it's unhelpful, but scummy? Think about the times you've played as scum, would you really go a whole day without posting? No, you'd do everything you could do to avoid bringing attention on yourself. I've still got my doubts...

Here, he's shying away from Walter as a lynch candidate, who he voted for on Day 1. This is another case where I don't entirely disagree, but it's worth noting because this is a player that warranted his vote on an earlier day.

Exactly my point from above. I'm really trying to get everyone's attention on this. Look at your scum suspect list, now look at who's all jumped on the Walter wagon, you'll likely see some overlap. Walter may be sum, but if he is, he's the worst scum I've ever seen! The Walter lynch is lazy because it's convenient. If we're wrong we could all say "oh well, he wasn't helping anyway." But we're past the point of weeding out lazy town, we now need to catch scum. Do you think Walter is scum or are you just voting for him because he hasn't posted? I have nothing to gain from defending Walter, I'm actually putting my neck on the line. But I can't sit back and watch us get lazy on this, it's day 3 folks...

His final comment at the point I compiled this. I don't agree with his approach here at all. Looking at ANY wagon will likely find some scum and some town. It's not a reason not to vote for Walter.

In summary:

1. He's been very non-committal at times

2. He's taken a dangerous defensive item (the bomb), with an overeager grab. This implies he knew what it was and the only one who could've told him, would be Tammo. I also find it notable that he didn't seem to have any interest in seeing if people trusted him enough to grab the vig. Any townie should want to be considered for the vig in order to keep it out of scum hands.

3. He avoided the Tammo bandwagon and actively tried to steer the conversation in different directions. When he "ran some numbers" to determine Tammo was worth lynching, he never acted on it, instead following Tammo's advice for an alternate candidate. He also actively latched on to the Bus Driver notion without questioning it.

I also wanted to comment on this:

first of all, i nev'r said i agreeth that brick is parteth of the scum team. that's simply putting in false accusations to geteth public opinion against me. i findeth that whole the'ry ridiculous as a mattereth of fact.

You implied that Brick, Tammo, and I were part of the same scum team with this statement:

shadows thought the redirect'r was the most damning thing f'r the town, but the thief pair'd with the vig is just as bad if not w'rse! scum can useth it as protection, as i thinketh they hast done hither and simply the fact that two townies trying to decideth individually on what p'rson to vig killeth means it will almost always cometh down to mostly town deaths. it seems we art nearing the endeth already unless we catcheth some scum yarely.

You said that the theif paired with the vig is a powerful scum tool and that was what "they hast done", implying Brick and me.

Also... you're doing great with the accent! My sympathies as I know the joys of that curse well.

[def]

Vote Tally:

PirateDave 1 (mostlytechnic)

DarkDragon 2 (penalty, bob)

fhomess 1 (Darkdragon)

Zepher 2 (Dragonfire, jluck)

Walter Kovacs 3 (Mencot, lind whisperer, Zepher)

Mostlytechnic 1 (Brickelodeon)

Jluck 1 (fhomess)

Brickelodeon 1 (Piratedave)

Lego Spy and Walter Kovacs have yet to vote. Two hours left in the day.

[Piratedave84]

I told no one about the bomb.

And whybis everyone so paranoid about losing the big costume when we're in for a second night of not using it? Glad I've kept my vote then.

And just because you don't use it doesn't mean it can't get stolen....

Yeah but if it is then we'll know who did the deed

[Lego Spy]

Well I have to vote, and due to other questions at hand, I'm going to vote for the person I'm most suspicious of.

Vote: The Flash (Walter Kovacs)

[jluck]

Fhomess, I'll read your work as soon as I'm off mobile. Clearly you worked hard on it. I just have one question before the day ends. Why post it now? It's too late for a lynch of me, I'm a bomb so I won't die tonight, so it appears to me that the only thing your post does is potentially pull votes from others. Possibly saving someone else? Or else you've convinced yourself you've caught me, I've done that many times myself.

Anyway, vig I suggest you target Zepher. I don't care what costume he has, we need dead scum and I have my doubts that Walter is our man (though I was wrong and Tammo so my track record isn't great).

[def]

Day ends, Walter Kovacs has been lynched. Must have posted so fast I missed it.

Vote Tally:

PirateDave 1 (mostlytechnic)

DarkDragon 2 (penalty, bob)

fhomess 1 (Darkdragon)

Zepher 2 (Dragonfire, jluck)

Walter Kovacs 4 (Mencot, lind whisperer, Zepher, Lego Spy)

Mostlytechnic 1 (Brickelodeon)

Jluck 1 (fhomess)

Brickelodeon 1 (Piratedave)

[def]

The crowd is divided, but in the end it's fallen onto Walter.

"Why have you chosen me to die,

Is it because I didn't play?

I want to know the reason why

I will be killed this day?

I cannot be blamed

for desiring not to rhyme.

This curse was lame(d)

and it takes way too much time."

def is unimpressed with this.

"No, too little, too late. Pelly is preparing a special death for you."

And with that, a metal clank reverberates upon the hardwood floor.

"Ack! A sentinel! It can't be so!

What an evil thing to send

Pelly must assuredly know

the Flash is not a mutant!"

With that stretched rhyme that ignores natural inflection, Pelly grows tired, and shows Walter the ability of his fully working Sentinel costume.

All that remains is Mary Jane's Lovely Locks.

Get your night actions in!