nerdsforprez Posted June 4, 2015 Author Posted June 4, 2015 although there is a limit of 75 for any given state, the odds of actually hitting that limit are very slim, everyone in the US is still going against the rest of the US. after all 75 for 1 state would be is 15% of the sets (15% of the 500), and since California is the most populated state at 12% of the US population they statistically still wont reach the 75 limit. as for our European friends, your odds are much harder to generalize. after all your entries are based solely on purchasing sets, and DC ones specifically this will dramatically lower the number of entries to compete against relative to the number those of us in the US are going up against. which probably explains why they adjusted the quantities in the way that they did. Agreed, only the top couple of most populous states (CA, NY, TX) stand any real chance of hitting the 75/state limit, but mostly because the least populous states (WY, AK, ND) most likely won't get more than 1 or 2 across the whole state. I do hope that they post the instructions online though. . Yea....I don't see it that way at all. I mean, I know there are some pretty austere states, but no state is only going to get 1 or 2 entries. NO state. I personally know at least 3-4 people in the states listed above (WY, AK, ND) who have personally confirmed with me that they will be submitting emails everyday for the contest. LEGO is too popular guys. EVERY state will have at least 75 different submissions.....guaranteed. So the above comments, IMHO, are kinda null and void. And sorry for the weird reply style.....my reply options are not working. Quote
Vorkosigan Posted June 4, 2015 Posted June 4, 2015 He's talking about how many will win, not how many will enter. I do think that some states like California will hit the limit however, because its not just about population but number of LEGO stores and AFOLs. AFOLs and serious KFOLs will enter many more times than casual users and are more concentrated in cities due to the demographics of the hobby. Quote
nerdsforprez Posted June 5, 2015 Author Posted June 5, 2015 Yea, I mis-read things. I thought that it would be a random draw out of all the states, meaning every state would have its own random draw from its own pool. But looks like that is not the case Quote
dr_spock Posted June 5, 2015 Posted June 5, 2015 Random draws are fun and easier than having to build sometihng. Once a states or province hit 75 winners, any more entries randomly drawn from that state or province will not be valid. That's how I understand it. I'll have to remember to email my entries. It doesn't look too hard to build your own. I imagine the tires will show up in other sets. It's kind of expensive to make a new tire mold to only use on one revenue earning set and 750 copies of a freebie contest set. Quote
fred67 Posted June 6, 2015 Posted June 6, 2015 I don't like it very much when they do things like this; I remember being an old-school Star Wars fan and desperately trying to get a Chrome Vader. Just by chance, it's more likely some kid that doesn't even understand that he got something great wins it randomly. I understand why they do it, I just don't really like it. This is a little bit different - you don't have to buy anything. You can enter every day. They are trying to distribute the winners as fairly as they can with a simple set of rules (and I might add that you will never make rules that make everybody happy, so they do what they can fairly easily implement). There's also no exclusive figures - we'll all be able to make one from parts at some point. And mostly the idea isn't necessarily to get people to buy stuff, it's to sign up VIP members... it's not like being a VIP member is some sort of burden. So no, I don't really like it, but they have their reasons and their tactics work to get people to sign up, so it's hard to "demand" they do something so everybody can get one - that's the whole point; it's desirable, so people will sign up in order to get a chance to win one. Quote
TheLegoDr Posted June 6, 2015 Posted June 6, 2015 It's like the Simpsons episode where Kang and Kodos Halloween episode...can't please everyone. The wheels will be the biggest part of this. I've thought about buying some, but I'll take my chances winning it. I'm due, right? Quote
Nacho Posted June 8, 2015 Posted June 8, 2015 I think one of the reasons Lego is so huge is because exclusives like this are highly sought collectors items. If everything they ever produced was available for sale at standard rrp then it wouldn't be as much fun collecting, part of collecting things is trying to get your hands on exclusive, rare, hard to find pieces. Quote
Deathleech Posted June 8, 2015 Posted June 8, 2015 If everything they ever produced was available for sale at standard rrp then it wouldn't be as much fun collecting, part of collecting things is trying to get your hands on exclusive, rare, hard to find pieces. To each his own I guess, but that's not really what I would consider "fun". Trying to go to special events hundreds or thousands of miles away, fighting crowds for a chance to get an exclusive minifigure, trying to win a contest where your chances of winning are abysmally small, or paying hundreds of dollars in after market prices for a piece of plastic that is really only worth a few cents... Yup, not my idea of fun. It's actually one of the reasons I got out of collecting action figures and into Lego. As for this particular promotion, I don't think it's that bad. You can get all the pieces yourself and make your own Bat-Pod. If Lego is going to do contests I would MUCH rather they be like this where the only thing exclusive about it is the packaging, but not the actual pieces. That's much better than exclusive figure prints you can't make yourself. Quote
HawkLord Posted June 8, 2015 Posted June 8, 2015 I also left action figures (mostly) and 1/6 scale figures (completely) partially because of rare, con, or chase figures and horrible distribution. Lego counters both with great distribution and limited exclusive material. The material that is overly exclusive hardly has an impact on my collecting whatsoever, because I'm not a completist and don't feel compelled to chase stuff down too much (or pay crazy prices). I think it also helps that I buy Lego universally and don't limit myself to specific lines. This means, I have more bricks at my disposal to build chase stuff like the Bat-pod. Quote
nerdsforprez Posted June 8, 2015 Author Posted June 8, 2015 As Deathleech mentioned..... to each his/her own. I really enjoy collecting. But..... totally understand the insanity and distaste of such insanity. I think that is an important distinction and insight to have..... one may not agree with another, but agreeing with or not and not simply understanding something or not are not the same thing.... Quote
rodiziorobs Posted June 9, 2015 Posted June 9, 2015 (edited) Like it or not, this Bat-Pod is going to stay exclusive. Other "exclusive" promotions such as polybags or GWPs can turn up elsewhere if LEGO produced too many or moved too few, but because they have specifically stated the size of the production run, that is a huge part of this announcement and no petition will change it. It may get TLG to change their approach to future prizes (not likely, IMO), but this one is set in stone now. Especially since this is licensed from DC, LEGO might not even have any freedom in the matter if they wanted to. Edited June 9, 2015 by rodiziorobs Quote
gmshades Posted June 11, 2015 Posted June 11, 2015 I just hope they realize the excitement for the set and decide to sell it after the contest. It would look great next to the tumbler! Quote
fred67 Posted June 13, 2015 Posted June 13, 2015 I'm glad people keep bumping this thread to remind me to send in my email.... Quote
nerdsforprez Posted June 22, 2015 Author Posted June 22, 2015 Just out of curiosity......I think it would be interesting to see how many people have actually remembered to send an email everyday. So far we are 22 days into June, and I must admit that I have missed 4 days. Bummer.... but not too bad. What are your numbers? How many days have you missed? Anyone sent an email everyday so far?? Quote
fred67 Posted June 22, 2015 Posted June 22, 2015 What are your numbers? How many days have you missed? Anyone sent an email everyday so far?? I've missed all but about four days. Off to send in today's.... Quote
TheLegoDr Posted June 22, 2015 Posted June 22, 2015 Typically on a day off from work I forget to do it since I'm rarely around computers on those days. But I think I have hit a good chunk of the days. I don't expect to win though. Set the bar low, then you'll never be disappointed. Quote
nerdsforprez Posted June 27, 2015 Author Posted June 27, 2015 three days left! missed six days when we went camping and did not have internet access....... Quote
dr_spock Posted June 27, 2015 Posted June 27, 2015 Thanks for bumping this. I need to make a email agent on a schedule. Quote
nerdsforprez Posted June 30, 2015 Author Posted June 30, 2015 Last day to send in entries!! I just sent my last. Missed 6 days. Not too bad. Anyone want to take a stab at odds of winning in their respective countries? I really have no idea how many entries will be posted. But..... for crap's sake lets say, at least in the US there are 1000 entries per state (I understand this is a broad generalization not to mentioned probably way off) thats 50000 entries. Now.....750 possible winners out of 50000... thats... but wait have to take into account only 75 winners per state so it kinda depends on where the cards fall (per state).... I know there likely is a formula to account for all this but this all surpasses my mathematical capabilities not to mention my time. Anyone have an idea of odds of winning this thing? Is it listed somewhere? I never saw it on the promo..... It does mention that it all depends on entries. This goes without saying. A formula can still be created that would account for the number of unknown entries as a variable. Plug in several variables and we could perhaps just get a range of possibilities.... Quote
Deathleech Posted June 30, 2015 Posted June 30, 2015 (edited) It's pretty much impossible to estimate the odds without some hard numbers from Lego. I mean if every person can enter once per day, that's 30 entries per person in a month if they entered once every day. That means it would only take 33 people entering every day to reach your guesstimated 1000 entries per state. Of course there are too many variables such as how many people actually entered, how many days they entered, etc. Wyoming is the least populated state, but even they have half a million people. California is the most populated with around 38 million. Then you have to factor in how many of these people are actually fans of Lego, how many of said fans even knew about the contest, etc. I would say your chances of winning are extremely low. Like, 1 in 2,000 conservatively. It's probably much lower than that though. Edited June 30, 2015 by Deathleech Quote
nerdsforprez Posted June 30, 2015 Author Posted June 30, 2015 Agreed.... I was looking more for like an algebraic formula where you solve for an unknown. You could estimate with the unknowns and get hypothesized results. For example, if you estimate there are 1000 entries per state, then x would be the odds of winning. If you think that 5000 votes are more likely per state, then your answer would be y. This at least would give you a range of possibilities...... Quote
dr_spock Posted July 1, 2015 Posted July 1, 2015 Are you including the VIP folks who made qualifying LEGO purchases in your odds? Quote
Deathleech Posted July 1, 2015 Posted July 1, 2015 Agreed.... I was looking more for like an algebraic formula where you solve for an unknown. You could estimate with the unknowns and get hypothesized results. For example, if you estimate there are 1000 entries per state, then x would be the odds of winning. If you think that 5000 votes are more likely per state, then your answer would be y. This at least would give you a range of possibilities...... The problem is everything is unknown to us, lol. It's hard (if not impossible) to come up with any sort of equation when the numbers we have to guesstimate with have such huge varying possibilities Quote
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