Winter Village Sets - Rumours and Discussion

[L@go]

A bear and a large eagle have appeared in limited sets. Even Smaug the dragon in the Hobbit sets is going to be a large unique molded creature which will ever appear in one set.

The bear is a pretty generic shape which can be changed from, say, grizzly/brown bear into polar bear with different printing/colour. Making a mould that is so generic that it could be both deer, reindeer and stag... it might work, but again: There aren't enough sets to put them in. They would have to design sets specifically to put the animals in - and that's just not how LEGO set design works.

With the eagle and dragon moulds it's a totally different story. They belong to licensed themes, and it's important to the rights holders that the animals look right - hence LEGO will invest the money to make the moulds. They don't have a choice - it's the same with specific body armour/head printing/hairpieces, they need to look just right, so the threshold for creating new molds is lower than for themes where minifigs could just as well have a generic, already existing body armour/head printing/hairpiece.

[Faefrost]

A bear and a large eagle have appeared in limited sets. Even Smaug the dragon in the Hobbit sets is going to be a large unique molded creature which will ever appear in one set. They could make a basic deer or stag and use it in various sets. Creator has produced some outdoor themed sets and City had a Forest series. The Santa mold seems to be a mainstay, and the elf molds are being reused from the collectible minifigure line. Surely, the deer mold could be used time to time in WV, holiday polybags, and even the City Advent Calendar. I must admit, upon hearing that this set would be made, my first thought was the hope there would be molded reindeer, because I would like to make a sleigh with 8 reindeer setup that would go on the mantle at Christmas. Oh well.....

The eagle and the bear were specifically also used in planned regular retail sets. The Dragon Smaug will be in a regular retail set that will be found in every big box store such as Walmart, TRU, Target, etc. for D2C the production runs start at around 20,000 pieces and seem to top off around 100,000 or so. For retail sets the minimum production runs are somewhere around 250,000 pieces and runs of 1-2 million for sets are common. It's all economies of scale and amortizing and financing the new molds. The numbers for new tooling for D2C sets will virtually never line up. I think the only new part that the designers ever managed to get made for a D2C set were the large train wheels for the Emerald Night. And they had to literally sell their souls to get them. Only the fact that it was a perceived general use part, and the shear longevity of Trains let them take that risk.

Typically for a "non construction element" mold they need to show a certain volume of part use within a fairly fixed time period. If I had to guess I would say between 12 and 24 months. Molds are capital items. They are at heart the core of TLG's business. And like all manufacturing capital expenses they are financed. Basically TLG takes out a mortgage on each mold (or each group of molds for a new theme.) each theme or mold thereby becomes a separate business case. Each needs to qualify for the loans based on the business plan, expected returns, etc for the theme. So a license contract counts well against a loan (why we see more new molds in licensed themes). A licensed theme tied to a current movie is even better for the bank (note how many new molds Man of Steel and Lone Ranger got). Without a license the business plan has to show guaranteed use at expected return per part. So for the eagle mold they could show exactly which sets they planned to use it in within a certain time frame. How many sets, pricing, expected part costs, etc. The final case would be a replacement mold for an existing part. Those are the easy loans to get typically. They can show precisely how many of this part they used at what pricing over time. Either the math lines up and the part lives on, or it doesn't and it gets retired. Best known example of that would be the monorail track.

Here end etch the business math lesson :)

Edited May 15, 2014 by Faefrost

[ritzcrackerman]

And they had to literally sell their souls to get them.

Figuratively. I hope.

[imicrofig]

Love the reindeer, what makes it Lego for me.

Please Santa, be gentle on us in the Great White North, and keep the cost of this one affordable, just couldn't justify the last couple of winter builds over $120+ (esp. when our dollar was at par with the US).

[Bonaparte]

I like the set, BUT...

I would have loved a moulded reindeer (which is high on the wanted list of many FOLs) instead this brick made version.

[LegoSjaak]

Hmm..i see a lot of people that are either happy with the reindeer being brickbuilt, or either not happy, not being it a new mould.. It is the same as the nosepiece from the new high speed citytrain.. I think it is hard for TLG to make a good decision in this matter.. i think it is about 50/50 so then they rather choose for not making a new mould and keeping the price a bit lower maybe?? I also favour the brickbuilt reindeer, although one mould would look better.. But is is Lego...and where do we end up when everything becomes a singel mould... Within 50 years we will have a 10-piece wintervillage.. 5 minifigs, 2 animal-moulds and 3 pieces to make a complete building.. so that is why i favour the brickbuilt versions.. Also for parts it is better.. now the reindeer can be recycled in a MOC...else it would be hard.... Anyway i like the set enough to buy it...well, i have to, as i have all other wintervillage-sets....haha..!

[lifeinplastic]

Lego have definitely missed a trick by not producing moulded reindeer here, which would probably have made me by this set. As it goes, the building isn't anything special, there are no new torsos or hat colours for the elves (let alone striped leg printing), the candy canes also remind me of the missed chance to release a minifigure one with the gingerbread man or CMF Santa's helper. It is very frustrating when Lego produce brick built animals as they simply don't fit in with other moulded creatures. "Here is a pig, ostrich, goat, horse, camel, seagull, etc and a great big blocky reindeer!" As clever as it is built, it is more something you would build in Creationary than something that should be part of a system scale Lego set.

2/10 - but only due to the reasonably nice sleigh.

Edited May 15, 2014 by lifeinplastic

[ShaydDeGrai]

I don't see the brick-built reindeer as an issue. Sure, they don't look "real" next to a molded animal, but then, I don't exactly have "real" Christmas Elves, molded or not, running around my Winter VIllage either.

When I first saw the photo, my thoughts went immediately not to some "real" Santa's Workshop, but to that house in my neighborhood that puts up the most over the top lighting and decoration display (complete with light-up, clockwork reindeer and an 8 ft tall inflatable Santa). In a set-up like that, who cares if the reindeer look real or not, brick built is probably better just to add to the holiday cheese factor.

I think when I get my copy, I'm going to MOD it into "that house" (with the lights and the inflatable snowman, and the giant Nativity scene complete with the glow in the dark baby Jesus, etc.) and sandwich it between two tastefully decorated winter cottages. I'm sure brick built reindeer will fit in just fine, especially when paired with the home owner falling off a ladder while trying to secure them to his snow covered roof.

[finishlast]

I guess I will need up to 20-25 LEDs for this set so this is a piece of cake compared to the illumination of the caroussel last year which was like 80 leds. I really need a transparent red plate for Rudolph with a blinking led. I hope it's under 100€. I don't really mind the fake reindeers I can place them in front of a garden as christmas decorations or something.

Edited May 15, 2014 by finishlast

[Yooha]

Did anyone else notice the Spaceship, spaceship, SPACESHIP on the conveyor belt?

[Legoman123]

What do you guys think will be in the interior of the set?

[Yooha]

Such a polybag would be lovely, so we could acquire those cute brick-built reindeers easier:

[Roebuck]

I honestly don't see how anybody could seriously expect a reindeer mould. It's much too expensive to design and make a brand new mold for an animal that has such a limited use in LEGO sets. I'm sorry, but it's just never going to happen - unless LEGO were to release a whole holiday theme with several sets featuring reindeer. And I somehow don't see that ever happening.

I am sorry, but that is wrong!

First of all Lego produce x-mas sets every year, so they could use a reindeer mould in them..

Second, Lego has in the past released several animal moulds they up to now only have used in 1 or 2 sets, e.g.:

-foal, 2 sets

-elephant, 2 sets (3 unique moulds I believe)

-goat, 1 set

-ostrich, 1 set

-camel, 2 sets

-big shark, 2 sets

-seagull, 1 set

-Chihuahua, 1 set

etc.

[L@go]

I am sorry, but that is wrong!

Read Faefrost's reply - he explains it much better than I did. And he knows what he's talking about.

Regarding the other animals you refer to, let me explain why they are bad examples:

The foal is a Friends part. Friends sets sell by the millions - as opposed to the Winter Village sets. Which means they can pay for a new mould. The same goes for the seagull and the chihuahua - they're from the Collectible Minifigures sets, which are also produced and sold in huge numbers compared to for example WV sets. The camel and the ostrich are both from the Prince of Persia sets, which were licensed - the economy works very differently with those, as Faefrost explains above. The big shark fits with every LEGO theme set in or around the sea, which means there's much more use for it than for a reindeer. The odd one out here is the goat, which is a very specialised mould - but that, too, was used in a regular retail castle set, produced in much bigger numbers than the D2C sets.

The elephant has a much more limited use than most of the others, and in that way it's comparable to a reindeer. But that one is from the Adventurers theme, which was produced in the years when LEGO spent money very unwisely - it would probably not have been done again.

Now, I'm just trying to explain why the reindeer mould will probably never be made. If you want to believe that it could still happen, be my guest. But I'm afraid you'll be disappointed.

[Dorayaki]

Now, I'm just trying to explain why the reindeer mould will probably never be made.

Uh.... the reasons you gave just proved that it does have a chance to be made in the future, did't they? Reindeers could appear in these conditions: 1) a snowland-themed story becomes a LEGO license, (eg, Narnia, Frozen). 2) a winter subtheme of Friends or new extension of City Arctic needs reindeers.

i'd say elephants are definitely musthaves for massive consumers, but it's more like TLG is not sure when this kind of animals are needed..

Making it simple, the major concern is that Creator was destinied to give more building experience, which includes animals. This theme isn't made to hit the market so it just stays as D2C sets. Therefore, TLC wouldn't manage to increase its design costs in order to introduce parts and molds.

But still it's not illegal to wish for a LEGO reindeer mold. Let's hope that molded reindeers could come in other winter sets this year!

Edited May 16, 2014 by Dorayaki

[Man with a hat]

hmmm. I have to think about this one. The building looks nice. I find it a pity however that they put in santa explicitly and deviate from the village settings. I am also not convinced about those brick built reindeer. But maybe they will grow on me, time will tell.

[Vindicare]

I'm sure the reason for the brick built reindeer is because its under the Creator banner. Look at 5771 Hillside House. How many dog molds does LEGO produce in a year? They couldve easily added one in there but didn't.

While this is rather nit picky, reindeer couldn't exactly pass for your run of the mill, everyday bucks. They look quite a bit different.

I think the set looks great. That conveyor looks somewhat similar to the LEGO tour molding machine set from a few years ago...maybe that's what they were going for instead of the usual wood working stations.

[rollermonkey]

I don't understand the griping/complaining about Santa. It's a legend known across much of the globe, and particularly so in the traditional LEGO markets of Europe and North America. If you don't like Mr. Kringle, throw the figure away, give it to a kid who WILL appreciate it, sell it, or just don't buy the set. AFOLs seem to forget what it's like to be a kid, and that these are first and foremost, kids toys. I'm not religious and it doesn't bother me at all, because it makes sense.

Edited May 16, 2014 by rollermonkey

[Roebuck]

Read Faefrost's reply - he explains it much better than I did. And he knows what he's talking about.

Regarding the other animals you refer to, let me explain why they are bad examples:

The foal is a Friends part. Friends sets sell by the millions - as opposed to the Winter Village sets. Which means they can pay for a new mould. The same goes for the seagull and the chihuahua - they're from the Collectible Minifigures sets, which are also produced and sold in huge numbers compared to for example WV sets. The camel and the ostrich are both from the Prince of Persia sets, which were licensed - the economy works very differently with those, as Faefrost explains above. The big shark fits with every LEGO theme set in or around the sea, which means there's much more use for it than for a reindeer. The odd one out here is the goat, which is a very specialised mould - but that, too, was used in a regular retail castle set, produced in much bigger numbers than the D2C sets.

The elephant has a much more limited use than most of the others, and in that way it's comparable to a reindeer. But that one is from the Adventurers theme, which was produced in the years when LEGO spent money very unwisely - it would probably not have been done again.

Now, I'm just trying to explain why the reindeer mould will probably never be made. If you want to believe that it could still happen, be my guest. But I'm afraid you'll be disappointed.

I was referring to the "minifig" foal in 6404 and 6418, not one of the useless animals from the friends line. Some people call it a pony for some reason, but it is obviously a foal! It is rather frustrating that the equivalent of today's friends series; "the paradisa" back in the days produced useful animal moulds like the foal. When the friends series of today produce many more animal moulds but no one is any good in a minifig set-up

TLG pay close attention to what the fan community are up to, and I believe they released the goat to surprise and please the fans A sheep would have been the obvious choice, but before the goat was made I remember several people made very good "castle" moc's including goats in them, and I think they noticed the demand .. Maybe Lego determines to make new moulds like Faefrost and you say, but I still think there is hope for a reindeer mould. No doubt they have noticed the massive criticism against not making a mould of the reindeer's in this set... But since they did not take the opportunity in this set, I think it will be several years before we can enjoy it

Ha en fin 17 mai L@go

[Colossus]

I can't wait to see the interior! So far, it looks like a must-have for Christmas!

[Rick]

TLG pay close attention to what the fan community are up to, and I believe they released the goat to surprise and please the fans A sheep would have been the obvious choice, but before the goat was made I remember several people made very good "castle" moc's including goats in them, and I think they noticed the demand .. Maybe Lego determines to make new moulds like Faefrost and you say, but I still think there is hope for a reindeer mould. No doubt they have noticed the massive criticism against not making a mould of the reindeer's in this set... But since they did not take the opportunity in this set, I think it will be several years before we can enjoy it

I think it's an illusion to think TLG does things solely to please (adult) fans. Of course they try to please us by, for example, including certain parts in new colours or with new prints in D2C sets. But the production runs for exclusives are simply too small to justify new moulds, unless, like the scooter in the Parisian Restaurant, they're also used in regular retail sets.

[TheLegoDr]

^Exactly. So our only hope is to have certain pieces with a wider appeal and hope the D2C set includes it. It is interesting how that scooter is in a $10 and a $160 set. But whatever works.

I don't think religion matters when it comes to Santa. We were a really religious family growing up and Santa still played a part in our Christmas festivities. So the inclusion of Santa in this set doesn't bother me. I can get past the reindeer even considering they look decent enough and a molded part would be very unlikely. The building even looks decent. My only qualm will be the overall price of the set. People are thinking it will be cheaper, but it looks big enough for them to throw the $100 price on it again. I think once they started that trend, they won't be going back on it. Just look at the new Parisian Restaurant. It is at $160 instead of the usual $150. Just have to accept these sets won't be as cheap as they used to be.

[L@go]

I was referring to the "minifig" foal in 6404 and 6418, not one of the useless animals from the friends line.

(...)

Ha en fin 17 mai L@go

I'd totally forgotten about that old part! Strange how that just disappeared, I'd have thought there would have been more use for it. Still, when they couldn't even find room for such a common animal in regular sets...

Takk, det samme, forresten. Fin dag i Bergen :)

1) a snowland-themed story becomes a LEGO license, (eg, Narnia, Frozen).

Very good point! If that happened there'd certainly be a possibility of LEGO actually making a reindeer mould.

[finishlast]

No big chance that the interior will be something like this?

https://amodularlife...aa4672c32_b.jpg

https://www.flickr.c...ickabrad/page3/

Ok the set won't go under 3000$...

Edited May 18, 2014 by finishlast

[Faefrost]

I am sorry, but that is wrong!

First of all Lego produce x-mas sets every year, so they could use a reindeer mould in them..

Second, Lego has in the past released several animal moulds they up to now only have used in 1 or 2 sets, e.g.:

-foal, 2 sets

-elephant, 2 sets (3 unique moulds I believe)

-goat, 1 set

-ostrich, 1 set

-camel, 2 sets

-big shark, 2 sets

-seagull, 1 set

-Chihuahua, 1 set

etc.

You are making Apples and Oranges comparisons. It is not whether or not they have made a limited use animal in the past. It is the business case surrounding that tooling. Also keep in mind that TLG's entire process and view on this changed after the 2003 near bankruptcy. The root cause of the financial crisis was they simply lost track of how much things were costing vs what the return on them was. They had far too many unique or low use molds that ate up funding and produced no revenue. They were selling major sets with expensive parts at a loss. starting around 2005 they retired almost half their old molds and put in much more stringent guidelines and reviews for new tooling.

-foal, 2 sets - this depends on which Foal you are talking about? The Friends one? If so that was made mainly as part of the Friends line, which is all retail product, so high production volume. Further it was mainly used in a higher volume higher margin small "impulse buy" set . All of that makes the math favorable for it.

-elephant, 2 sets (3 unique moulds I believe) - This was a pre 2003 set of tooling that they lost money on. Safe bet is it has been retired. (Unless you are talking about the Duplo Elephant, which has a higher product lifecycle, higher volumes etc than normal Lego System sets)

-goat, 1 set - The Goat is an outlier and probably a bad gamble on their part. It at least was made for a regular retail set. Part of the second or third wave for a well selling product line. I am kind of surprised we have not seen it again. Maybe a mold failure?

-ostrich, 1 set - Was made for a Licensed Retail set with a direct current movie tie in. This is a part that was made specifically for that and had the underlying financing to do it.

-camel, 2 sets - See above Ostrich. Licensed Movie Tie In used for regular retail sets. They probably made 4 million Camels.

-big shark, 2 sets - 2 Regular retail sets. In those two sets they had enough use to justify creation of the part and amortization of costs.

-seagull, 1 set - It is used in a CMF fig. The economics of those are wildly different than other Lego products. Typically a new mold or special item such as a big fig cannot add more than 5% to 10% of the retail price to the cost of the set. (We all see how people scream at a high price per piece ratio). Anything above that quickly deflates the perceived value of the product unless it is something really obvious and special, like a floating boat hull or train with motors. The CMF's however? These are probably TLG's highest margin product line. They have a huge revenue return on roughly a 1 foot cube of shipping, warehouse and retail display space. New parts for them can run up to 25% to 50% of the retail price. And they are made in extremely high volume. You cannot compare tooling for CMF with tooling costs for anything else. They operate on entirely different business models.

-Chihuahua, 1 set - Once again a CMF piece. CMF economics apply. Now once a part is created for CMF's City and D2C does frequently benefit from it. But a molded Reindeer would probably be a little big for inclusion in a CMF packet.