really? i see sail barge selling for almost 2 year straight now. i kinda doubt that though. i think it depends more on which sets are selling. for eg, HP castle just came on board some time in may. i know it came together with the castle sets. but it went on clearance in oct, hardly 6 mths later. the SW sets however are still selling strong. ILC, y-wing, which were available since Nov 06 and are still available at MSRP.

i think it's just some of these sets don't sell and were cut off. best example: avatar vs spongebob. why is spongebob still available and yet avatar is gone? both were released approx the same time, and yet avatar was put on clearance in less than a year.

but i agree with you on one thing though. retailers recycle sets. even best selling sets end after 1 year usually. target recycles at least annually. TRU recycles annually and biannually for really good sets. walmart recycles between 6 mths to a year.

i can already tell that sail barge is going to be the new 4504 MF. TRU is now retailing that set for $80. it first sold in jan 06, and it is still carried in TRU stores now. this is one of those really good sets. target cut that off beginning jan 07, and walmart was like aug 06.

i think the main reason for such a quick turnover here is the consumer market. everything has to have a cycle or else sales and clearance will be meaningless. what's the point of "clearance" if they just reappear next year? it creates an urgency for the consumer to buy now before it is all gone!!! there have to be an urgency that once finished they will be discontinued. so each year, manufacturers have to come up with something new. take halloween costumes or festive candies. why put on sale halloween chocolates and candies when in 2 month's time you will need them for christmas again? chocolates and candies dont expire in 2 months. it's only the packaging anyway... chocolates are still chocolates even if the wrapper is different. it's just silly. for me, being the scrooge that i am...i buy stuff a year in advance. :-P that way i get 75-90% off on most items. :-P more bang for my bucks. :-P

I'm surprised no one has brought up the online Pick-a-Brick store, which in my opinion is the most earth-shattering thing Lego has ever done. Need 376 grey 2x2 tiles? Here you go! For we old-timers, that's just incredible to be able to do that (aside from Bricklink, which is very cool; but if possible I prefer NEW pieces). My hope is that the online Pick-a-Brick store continues to grow and expand with new pieces.

I think TLC is approaching a transition period. How much longer can the two heavy-hitters (Bionicle and Star Wars) continue to rake in cash? The SW license is ending in a few years, and I have to believe that Bionicle will begin to fade. What's going to step in to replace those two cash cows?? I can't imagine any third-party license will ever approach Star Wars. That was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and to Lego's credit, they smacked it out of the ballpark. But once it's done ... then what??? I can already see my interest in SW sets waning. Although I understand and appreciate the enthusiasm others have for the Clone Wars sets and the EU sets, I don't share it. I have no interest in any of that stuff.

I don't like this trend of what I refer to as "disposable themes" (themes that pop up for one, maybe two, years, then disappear). I think that's a foolish, short-sighted marketing concept. I'd like to see Lego streamline their product catalog down to a handful of strong, well-designed themes, rather than this scattershot, let's-throw-anything-against-the-wall-and-see-if-it-sticks approach.

Overall, the past few years have been terrific. I'm skeptical about the demise of the 9V train and where Lego takes that, but otherwise, the next few years could be awesome. Maybe not a second Golden Age, but definitely a Silver Age.

I'd say it's definately going the right way with the pick-a-brick, the Indy theme and so many nice additions to existing (not for long for some of them) themes.

A question haunts me however, every time this kind of "will they care about AFOLS" questions rise: what share of LEGO turnover is made by AFOLs. I don't mean adults buying for their kids. I mean actual AFOLs. |-/

I think this would be the answer to most of the questions regarding "disposable themes", "UCS castle", the 100th police station: what is the attention / time span of a 10 year old and his parents when it comes to toys ?

Only AFOLs have buying strategies. Kids and their parents buy when needed.

TLC need money all year long. :-)

well, i hardly see bionicle selling. the top 25 list is dominated by SW, city and castle.

I tend not to pay attention the top 25 list on Lego.com. It doesn't include store sales. But according to LEGO's press release for 2006 results BIONICLE was its number one theme, with a 10% sales increase over 2005. So it is selling.

Hinckley, I think that retailers tend not to like too many long-standing themes. I may be wrong, but that is what it seems like to me. If you look back in the old days, LEGO never had a castle faction for more than one year. This Aqua Raiders and MarsMission thing isn't a new concept.

Joebot, I think LEGO might renew the StarWars liscence if possible. And BIONICLE is going into its eighth year, with 2009 already in plan and production, so it doesn't seem to be dying. If the BIONICLE team continues with the successful direction they have been going in, it should last longer. I hear that BIONICLE is making it possible to gain a lot more new fans in 2009, so we will see if it dies out. I'm not counting it out yet. ;-)

I don't like this trend of what I refer to as "disposable themes" (themes that pop up for one, maybe two, years, then disappear). I think that's a foolish, short-sighted marketing concept. I'd like to see Lego streamline their product catalog down to a handful of strong, well-designed themes, rather than this scattershot, let's-throw-anything-against-the-wall-and-see-if-it-sticks approach.

I do like it. It lets LEGO get rid of bad themes that don't sell, and keep good themes that do. Themes such as Knight's Kingdom and Exo-Force that last for basically three years aren't as good, because the last year they sort of lack ideas. Castle 2008 seems to be nice, though.

Themes like VIkings, Aqua Raiders, and Mars Mission are well designed, although I am not a fan of Mars Mission myself; I just don't buy those types of sets. I think this strategy is a good one, as LEGO has slowly increased sales since 2005.

Oh, and I agree that the Pick-A-Brick store and LEGO Factory period were excellent ideas! As one NewYorkTimes article said, "LEGO has turned their fanbase into an army of designers." lol! :-D

VK

Edited November 2, 200717 yr by Visorak-kal

Very well said, Cabby. I forgot to include that in my post above yours. Yes, typically kids don't have buying strategies. I typically plan out my year ahead, like you guys, but that is probably unusual for most LEGO consumers.

They just go to the store or online, say, "this is cool!" and don't think about the future of the theme from which they have just purchased a set.

VK

They just go to the store or online, say, "this is cool!" and don't think about the future of the theme from which they have just purchased a set.

VK

Exactly. I must confes i was thrilled by the first pics we saw of MM sets... :-$ and check out how *yoda* was excited to review them... it takes a longer time to see it as a "disposable theme" than just walk in the TRU LEGO aisle. :-$

Exactly. I must confes i was thrilled by the first pics we saw of MM sets... :-$ and check out how *yoda* was excited to review them... it takes a longer time to see it as a "disposable theme" than just walk in the TRU LEGO aisle. :-$

I don't know. It felt like a pretty short-lived theme to me. I think this is, in part, due to the setting of it on Mars. There is only so much that can be done with a specific known setting like that. Whereas a generic Space line would allow for exploration of different planets (with different styled vehicles) and allow for more potential factions and sets.

Steve

I don't know. It felt like a pretty short-lived theme to me. I think this is, in part, due to the setting of it on Mars. There is only so much that can be done with a specific known setting like that. Whereas a generic Space line would allow for exploration of different planets (with different styled vehicles) and allow for more potential factions and sets.

Steve

Sure, that was not the best example. That was just an example.

Of course some people see further than others. Some invested in Microsoft. One said "all i want is the rights on merchandising for my movie". Some spot weak toy lines at first sight. All are adults. That was my point.

Now imagine 10 year old kenny in the LEGO aisle: "It feels like a pretty short-lived theme to me. I think this is, in part, due to the setting of it on Mars. There is only so much that can be done with a specific known setting like that. Whereas a generic Space line would allow for exploration of different planets (with different styled vehicles) and allow for more potential factions and sets". 8-

The question i was asking was, what can we imagine is the market share for AFOLs in LEGO strategy ?

That is the million dollar question right there. Knowing the answer to that question would resolve a lot of endless debate on this message board (but, hey, where's the fun in THAT?).

The sad fact is, we don't know. I suspect even Lego doesn't know.

My guess (based on absolutely nothing) is that we're not as dominant a factor as we like to think we are ... but we're not as insignificant as Lego seems to think we are. Reality is probably somewhere in the middle.

My guess (based on absolutely nothing) is that we're not as dominant a factor as we like to think we are ... but we're not as insignificant as Lego seems to think we are. Reality is probably somewhere in the middle.

I think its a bit better than that ;-) From my understanding, the Ambassadors were a great help in giving us great sets (castle) and Ambassadors are AFOLs ;-) So in that way we are significant !!

Lets not forget TLC quoting us in that SW presentation + all the AFOL based sets !!

*yoda*

As much as I hate MM, it actually sells pretty well in the store I work at, kids love it and snap it up. The same people that buy exo force also buy MM.

For me TLC is doing strange things on one hand it is killing of the thing most AFOLS love dearly 9v and on the other hand it is trying to butter them all up by giving us things like the 10183 and stuff.

That is the million dollar question right there. Knowing the answer to that question would resolve a lot of endless debate on this message board (but, hey, where's the fun in THAT?).

The sad fact is, we don't know. I suspect even Lego doesn't know.

My guess (based on absolutely nothing) is that we're not as dominant a factor as we like to think we are ... but we're not as insignificant as Lego seems to think we are. Reality is probably somewhere in the middle.

My personal feeling is that (and this is purely my opinion based on this and next years sets, and to a lesser degree last years) TLC is trying to create most of its sets to appeal to both 10 year olds and AFOLs. This, of course, is a huge challenge, but it seems to me that if they were targeting only 10 year olds then we'd all be whining constantly (more than usual) about how things haven't been good for 5 years; on the flip side if they were only targeting us, then we'd not even be talking about it.

Sure there are some sets that are clearly targeted one way or another, but the vast majority seem to be plop in the middle... just enough whimsy and fun and "impulse" for the 10 year old, while being made out of less <insert that tiresome argument> pieces with better and better overall design.

Just my 2p.

Lego seems to have hit a gold age, but is that necesarilly good? If they pour out all their good sets and themes now will they have them later? To me the Castle theme seems to already seems to be close to its end. Things like the trolls are kind of a give-away. The theme started out with a war between humans and skeletons. Now they've moved away from that and started using mystical creatures.

The theme started out with a war between humans and skeletons. Now they've moved away from that and started using mystical creatures.

Moving from reanimated skeletons to mystical creatures? Are you suggesting that a reanimated skeleton doesn't qualify as a mystical creature? 8-| :-D

Are you suggesting that a reanimated skeleton doesn't qualify as a mystical creature? 8-| :-D

Duuuh