SHIELD vs. HYDRA Mafia - Day 5

[JackJonespaw]

Would it be acceptable to ask if there are any vanilla in the town block? I don't want to fish, but I do have a slight concern that I'm currently working through. If you all deem it to be info you'd rather keep private, I'd certainly understand.

Does your concern have something to do with a scum infiltrating our block, pretending to be vanilla, and unwraveling all of our plans from within?

[jluck]

Does your concern have something to do with a scum infiltrating our block, pretending to be vanilla, and unwraveling all of our plans from within?

Actually, no. But I've been so focused on the fact that there are only 2 vanilla claims that I hadn't looked at the other side of it. If there are only two remaining vanilla, that means there are 6 remaining power roles! That simply doesn't add up! Look back at the previous games, in a game this small there are never that many power roles. And this is assuming no PRs have died yet. I know it's troublesome to look inward, but from my perspective something is off.

Here's the last two games to compare:

Notice the first one has 3 PRs in a game of 12 and the second one has 5 in a game of 20. This was a game of 16 so...

[mostlytechnic]

First, no, there are no claimed vanilla in the block. I'm in contact with them and talking privately on occasion, but they haven't been told any other info. Not even all the PRs are in the block group PM, for that matter.

Second, I do agree that there seems to be a LOT of PRs in this game. Which makes me extra wary about the lack of night kills. Surely if the town has this many PRs, there'd have to be some balance on the scum side. So yes, the possibility of a lying PR being in the block has crossed my mind many times. I can't find any inconsistencies that would lead me to suspect anyone though.

[mostlytechnic]

Ok, we need to lynch someone, but I really don't want to start the voting since I don't want people to just follow my lead. So, anyone?

[Lady K]

I'll do it. I agree that a lynch needs to happen, we have a scum amongst us. I too believe the town block could be infiltrated at this point, however I think it's best to go with a vanilla. The choices for today then would be me or Walter. His offering to be the lynch could be seen two ways, first as a townie who would remove themselves from speculation so the hunt could focus on scum. However I don't really see him under much scrutiny till today with his offer of being the lynch so why then would he want to offer himself up? Secondly it could be seen as a scum trying to survive while attempting to look townie by offering up himself as the lynch. I am leaning on the second due to the fact that he suggested both vanilla's be taken out. Sure a vanilla has no night actions, but they do have voting power. And while I will do what is best for the town, I think that strategy suggests that he knows more than he is letting on.

So I will cast the first vote:

Vote: Walter Williams (jluck)

If the block has a better idea then I am for it and will change my vote.

[JackJonespaw]

Ok, we need to lynch someone, but I really don't want to start the voting since I don't want people to just follow my lead. So, anyone?

Honestly, I feel like I need another night to do actions before I could even pass any judgement. Everything is too up in the air at this point. Which is weird, because usually by Day 5 we feel a lot more secure.

[mostlytechnic]

I think what has happened is the easy/obvious targets got taken out, and we have no good night info to go on from last night, so everyone feels stuck.

And we had two days of scum being caught, so that dampened discussion and hunting.

[jluck]

I've explained why I'm willing to be lynched, unless someone finds a major flaw in my theory I won't keep repeating my reasoning.

I'm town but my continued presence will be (rightly) viewed with suspicion due to only 2 vanilla claims remaining.

However, my concerns for the town block are genuine and this has really bothered me. If the remaining scum isn't in the two vanillas killed off then the entire game will be up for grabs since every block player will be under scrutiny. the block should think long and hard on this one. I will vote as you recommend, including for myself if you are certain the block is cleared. I'll be in regularly throughout the evening so feel free to ask me any questions or advice me as to my vote.

[Lady K]

Honestly, I feel like I need another night to do actions before I could even pass any judgement. Everything is too up in the air at this point. Which is weird, because usually by Day 5 we feel a lot more secure.

I think what has happened is the easy/obvious targets got taken out, and we have no good night info to go on from last night, so everyone feels stuck.

And we had two days of scum being caught, so that dampened discussion and hunting.

Ok, I am going to throw out an idea here.....do you want to go with a no-lynch to get in another night of actions? I know we don't normally look at that as an option but with no good results to go on and not even strong gut feelings would it benefit us to have a no-lynch?

[Darkdragon]

Sorry for my absence, as I mentioned before this started, I am traveling and have little to no connection.

I will just say it here because the supposed town block isn't giving much info and besides that they won't bother to work with me at all. I am the vigilante for town and every kill has been successful.

That means that scum has only killed ONCE and there's no way a logical person could say that's normal and not target people that were blocked and not watch people that were protected and kill any visitor. So the only logical explanation is that the scum have been recruiting from the group that we already trust.

Let me ask you, if you were scum who would you logically convert mid game? Its a no-brainer, you'd convert the guy who got half your team lynched and who the town trusts with no reservations.

[Darkdragon]

Vote: Daniel Bartell(mostlytechnic) for reasons stated above, I believe he is converted to scum on night 3 or 4.

[mostlytechnic]

Well, there's another PR outed I guess... for the record, Cecilia only claimed this role to the town on day 4. We suggested Robert be last night's kill, basically on a "kill off the vanilla" strategy. We (I) haven't communicated a ton with Cecilia because we've been trying to determine if this is a legit vig claim, or a SK or scum infiltration attempt. Additionally, it's generally wise to keep some distance between the town block so that if you DO have an infiltration, the scum don't learn everything.

Now, here's the evidence we're looking at. On night 3, Cecilia WAS indeed seen visiting Jeffrey. That led to me contacting her and getting the claim from her. At that point she also claimed to have been the killer nights 1 and 2. Would a vig have killed night 1? Maybe, since Kinjobby was drawing some attention. Scum obviously wouldn't have killed a fellow scum on night 2 - except I seem to recall a very recent adventure where exactly that happened because the scum team was divided. Night 3, why kill Jeffrey?

And since we're sharing info, one wrinkle I'll throw in. If Cecilia is telling the truth, then there have been ZERO - yes, ZERO!!! - scum kills. Jeffrey and Hailey were lovers. Both had told the town block this before their death. So when Cecilia killed Jeffrey, Hailey died as well. So how do we explain ZERO other kills the entire game? I've looked at all the claimed protection and blocks and I can't explain it that way. Unless the scum and our block/protect roles just matched up perfectly, and the odds of that are super low, I don't have an explanation.

Ok, I just studied my spreadsheet AGAIN. The only possible way I can come up with zero scum kills is that Margaret is the killer. So, I'll

Vote: Margaret Corrigan (LadyK)

Now, I came to that conclusion JUST on the result (or lack thereof) of night actions. However, when you add in that she's claimed vanilla publicly, therefore not a big loss if we're wrong, AND she threw down a vote on Walter after he suggested lynching a vanilla, and then when no one else was joining her, she suggested a no-lynch... I hope I'm on to something here....

Vote: Daniel Bartell(mostlytechnic) for reasons stated above, I believe he is converted to scum on night 3 or 4.

This was posted while I was writing the above wall of text. Now, if I was converted night 3, why would I have reported James as scum and gotten him lynched? I could have lied and said I found someone loyal and saved a scummo. But that's moot, because I was NOT converted. And I don't think I've ever seen a game where PRs could be converted.

[Darkdragon]

This late in the game and I can't seem to get anyone to work with or give full truthful info. I had no option than to claim here because I simply don't trust you anymore, you never told me what was going on with the Margaret thing and had me kill a probable vanilla townie which I objected to,instead of Margaret who I wanted to.

I don't think the third death the other night was a lovers role I believe it was a scum kill. It was the one with the black sword.

I killed Jeff because he was blocked night one and no scum kill, nobody else seemed to care and he gave a last minute non-response type of response. I had already brought up my suspicions with someone in PM, another who was too busy in the town-block pm to really care about working with me. Though I can understand his concerns due to a previous experience.

So if you don't think I'm being truthful then kill me, that's what we do to fellow townies now I guess. Kill them just in case they are hiding something or lying instead of looking at facts.

[Tariq j]

Can PR's even be converted? In another life of mine (Ragnorak 3) the scum failed to convert any PR's whatsoever.

.

I don't think the third death the other night was a lovers role I believe it was a scum kill. It was the one with the black sword.

Of course it was! Our Host Mr Fury even have us a clue, as Hailey felt Jeffrey die and called him "her soulmate" They were definitely lovers.

[Darkdragon]

I don't know the rules here but I have seen it happen before.

Can PR's even be converted? In another life of mine (Ragnorak 3) the scum failed to convert any PR's whatsoever.

Of course it was! Our Host Mr Fury even have us a clue, as Hailey felt Jeffrey die and called him "her soulmate" They were definitely lovers.

He also said it definitely wasn't the role, and if you read the text for the guy wielding the sword it sounds like it's being done by someone that was previously failing to kill.

If scum can't kill, the only logical explanation is that they have to convert to win by numbers, like a cult. It would be an interesting twist I suppose.

[Tariq j]

He also said it definitely wasn't the role, and if you read the text for the guy wielding the sword it sounds like it's being done by someone that was previously failing to kill.

When did he say this?

I don't know the rules here but I have seen it happen before.

If scum can't kill, the only logical explanation is that they have to convert to win by numbers, like a cult. It would be an interesting twist I suppose.

That would kind of make sense, but then why haven't converted anyone in the town block?

[mostlytechnic]

Todd brought up a really good point to me in private, so I'm going to share it because I think he may have solved it.

Last night one of the block was blocked. That means that for whatever reason, the scum blocked rather than kill. But, based off of that and all the other PRs who were successful, the only person we can't account for is Walter. Everyone else in the game was doing a different action. So, either one of the claimed PRs is indeed lying (and several of last night's results cross-check with each other, so there's only a couple people who could even possibly be lying) or Walter is scum, and playing a VERY daring game today.

Unvote: Margaret (LadyK)

Vote: Walter (jluck)

[Tariq j]

Detective Todd is back!

Seriously though, I too think Walter is scum, out of all the 8 players he was the only one not accounted for, meaning he must have been the one blocking the person in the block.

Vote: Walter Williams (jluck)

[mostlytechnic]

I made a list of all the people who could possibly be lying about last night's results. Some of the results overlap (people saw each other, etc), and some don't. I then made a similar list for each previous night. There was no PR who could have been lying about every night. The only person alive who could have been lying every night is Walter - he was seen not doing anything on night 2, which would seem to confirm his vanilla status, but it's also possible that he chose not to go out that night or that not all the scum had roles to begin, and once they started dying off, he took over one of their abilities.

So either Walter is scum, OR there ARE conversions occurring. Walter being scum is the easier solution, but if we lynch him and he does flip town, then we'll have to start digging into conversion possibilities.

[Lady K]

Sorry for my absence, as I mentioned before this started, I am traveling and have little to no connection.

I will just say it here because the supposed town block isn't giving much info and besides that they won't bother to work with me at all. I am the vigilante for town and every kill has been successful.

That means that scum has only killed ONCE and there's no way a logical person could say that's normal and not target people that were blocked and not watch people that were protected and kill any visitor. So the only logical explanation is that the scum have been recruiting from the group that we already trust.

Let me ask you, if you were scum who would you logically convert mid game? Its a no-brainer, you'd convert the guy who got half your team lynched and who the town trusts with no reservations.

This makes a lot of sense. I would like to add a point though. Yes, there could be a conversion and it could be Daniel but what has worried me since early on when things just didn't feel right with the town block was that someone Daniel trusts was either scum from the beginning or converted. I remember a vision of a past life where I was then on the wrong side and a fellow team mate who liked to serve Tiny Pies was able to establish himself firmly in the town block on Day 2. Without question he was trusted and thus in that life the town lost to the scum. I worry that is going to happen here as well.

Well, there's another PR outed I guess... for the record, Cecilia only claimed this role to the town on day 4. We suggested Robert be last night's kill, basically on a "kill off the vanilla" strategy. We (I) haven't communicated a ton with Cecilia because we've been trying to determine if this is a legit vig claim, or a SK or scum infiltration attempt. Additionally, it's generally wise to keep some distance between the town block so that if you DO have an infiltration, the scum don't learn everything.

Now, here's the evidence we're looking at. On night 3, Cecilia WAS indeed seen visiting Jeffrey. That led to me contacting her and getting the claim from her. At that point she also claimed to have been the killer nights 1 and 2. Would a vig have killed night 1? Maybe, since Kinjobby was drawing some attention. Scum obviously wouldn't have killed a fellow scum on night 2 - except I seem to recall a very recent adventure where exactly that happened because the scum team was divided. Night 3, why kill Jeffrey?

And since we're sharing info, one wrinkle I'll throw in. If Cecilia is telling the truth, then there have been ZERO - yes, ZERO!!! - scum kills. Jeffrey and Hailey were lovers. Both had told the town block this before their death. So when Cecilia killed Jeffrey, Hailey died as well. So how do we explain ZERO other kills the entire game? I've looked at all the claimed protection and blocks and I can't explain it that way. Unless the scum and our block/protect roles just matched up perfectly, and the odds of that are super low, I don't have an explanation.

Ok, I just studied my spreadsheet AGAIN. The only possible way I can come up with zero scum kills is that Margaret is the killer. So, I'll

Vote: Margaret Corrigan (LadyK)

Now, I came to that conclusion JUST on the result (or lack thereof) of night actions. However, when you add in that she's claimed vanilla publicly, therefore not a big loss if we're wrong, AND she threw down a vote on Walter after he suggested lynching a vanilla, and then when no one else was joining her, she suggested a no-lynch... I hope I'm on to something here....

This was posted while I was writing the above wall of text. Now, if I was converted night 3, why would I have reported James as scum and gotten him lynched? I could have lied and said I found someone loyal and saved a scummo. But that's moot, because I was NOT converted. And I don't think I've ever seen a game where PRs could be converted.

I would assume then that you have wasted the block on me. And you were assuming that the block was preventing the scum kill which it wasn't, something else is going on here.

I would have thought you would have investigated me or had me killed (or both) by this point if you didn't trust me.

This late in the game and I can't seem to get anyone to work with or give full truthful info. I had no option than to claim here because I simply don't trust you anymore, you never told me what was going on with the Margaret thing and had me kill a probable vanilla townie which I objected to,instead of Margaret who I wanted to.

I don't think the third death the other night was a lovers role I believe it was a scum kill. It was the one with the black sword.

I killed Jeff because he was blocked night one and no scum kill, nobody else seemed to care and he gave a last minute non-response type of response. I had already brought up my suspicions with someone in PM, another who was too busy in the town-block pm to really care about working with me. Though I can understand his concerns due to a previous experience.

So if you don't think I'm being truthful then kill me, that's what we do to fellow townies now I guess. Kill them just in case they are hiding something or lying instead of looking at facts.

I believe we brought up the same concerns to the same person....who incidentally hasn't even made on post this day so far.....and all he did was mention that I was the second person to bring up these suspicions to him in a short period of time. He has since ceased all communication with me.

[jluck]

I made a list of all the people who could possibly be lying about last night's results. Some of the results overlap (people saw each other, etc), and some don't. I then made a similar list for each previous night. There was no PR who could have been lying about every night. The only person alive who could have been lying every night is Walter - he was seen not doing anything on night 2, which would seem to confirm his vanilla status, but it's also possible that he chose not to go out that night or that not all the scum had roles to begin, and once they started dying off, he took over one of their abilities.

So either Walter is scum, OR there ARE conversions occurring. Walter being scum is the easier solution, but if we lynch him and he does flip town, then we'll have to start digging into conversion possibilities.

Ive said all along that killing me is a good option. Not because I'm scum (I stayed home night two because I can't leave home...you know, the whole vanilla thing ) but because I will always be a distraction if I'm alive.

But once I'm gone, your gonna have to look in at the block. The numbers don't add up and I think that's clear to everyone. If the actions have been thoroughly vetted I assume that you already have a decent idea who doesn't belong so I think the town is in a strong spot. Just don't be too cautious, because the odds can shift quickly.

[CMP]

Ive said all along that killing me is a good option.

Then go ahead and vote for yourself...

Vote: Walter Williams (jluck). I've trusted Daniel thus far, and it's probably best to get the vanillas out of the way just to be sure we're not on a witch hunt in looking for a mole inside the block.

[jluck]

Vote:Walter Williams (jlcuck)

Personally, I wanna live, but I wanna win more so if this is what does it here we go!

[Piratedave84]

sorry I didn't drop by earlier, easter, family, work ... was crazy.

I can rally behind Todd's idea as in fact Walter is the only unacounted for based on NA and actions.

This being said, I don't think the block is/was infiltrated as we clearly stated our intentions every night in our group PM and it would have been way too easy for scum to block us or circumvent us, which happened once or twice and always for irrelevant-ish actions.

Vote: Walter Williams (jluck).

[mediumsnowman]

Vote Tally

6 votes for Walter Williams (jluck): (Lady K, mostlytechnic, Tariq j, CallMePie, jluck, PirateDave84)

1 vote for Daniel Bartell (mostlytechnic): (Darkdragon)

Nonvoting (1): (JackJonespaw)

With 8 players remaining, a majority of 5 is required to lynch. Approximately 9 hours remain in the day.