First 2016 LEGO Ideas Review - Guessing Game

[Robert8]

Let's see if we can guess which one will be the next project approved on LEGO Ideas!

Edited June 9, 2016 by Robert8

[Alpinemaps]

I would personally like to see the Gingerbread House and Rolling BB-8 make it. At least, those are the two that I feel have the most likelihood of making it (along with being the ones that I want). Johnny 5 and the Old Fishing House are favorites of mine, but I don't think they will make the cut.

[Khscarymovie4]

My vote is on the gingerbread house. Even though I would like the Jedi counsel, visitor center, or fishing store.

[mediumsnowman]

Star Wars ideas sets are out. Johnny Five could go in the same vein as WALL-E, but I don't think there is enough of a fanbase. Train Station and particle accelerator are too big. If we ever get a Gingerbread house, it'll be through the Winter Village line. Fishing House is possible, but I don't see it happening.

Come on TLG, it's time to finally greenlight a JP project!

Edited June 9, 2016 by mediumsnowman

[Umbra-Manis]

My money's on Gingerbread or the Fossil museum.

[BrickCurve]

The rolling BB-8 stands quite a good chance in terms of sales , I would prefer the fishing shop, train station and gingerbread house. Imagine how good the fishing store would be for parts...

[Blondie-Wan]

Star Wars ideas sets are out.

I don't know about that. I do think these two most likely are, alas, for different reasons, but I dk also think it's possible we could see one get through someday (and in fact, I'm planning a Star Wars project myself).

[BrickJagger]

I'll go with the Gingerbread house, it's the only one with any sort of chance in my eyes. All of the others are too big or Star Wars related.

[Blondie-Wan]

I don't think being Star Wars-related necessarily kills a project's chances all by itself; it just means the possibility of TLG already working on something similar is greater, and there can be other license factors that complicate things. It should probably be noted that a) every Star Wars project that has made it to review in the past had at least one other likely strike against it, and b) the Dark Bucket project, a Star Wars project that was archived before even getting to review and which is the one Star Wars project for which a specific reason was given for why it wasn't accepted, was indeed declined for a legal reason, but not simply that the license outright forbid doing Star Wars sets through Ideas (rather, it simply infringed on Hasbro's action figure license, and thus would have to have a more substantive brick-based build than just putting a hundred minifigures together).

To me, that suggests that there could in fact be Star Wars projects that could be approved, and we just haven't gotten any of them to review yet. That said, I doubt either of these is likely to be one (even though I like and supported both, and would be happy to be proven wrong). The Jedi Council chamber is probably too large to be done with the limited production capacity currently allocated to Ideas sets, and the rolling BB-8 is fundamentally dependent upon magnet elements they no longer make for safety reasons, and they may be unable to devise a workaround using other magnetic elements.

[x105Black]

I voted for the Fossil Museum, Gingerbread House, and Johnny Five.

The Fossil Museum just fits really well with the brand, is of a reasonable size, and looks really nice. It seems the most likely to me. The Gingerbread House is a bit on the large side, but I think it could still happen. It also fits very well with the brand and looks good. Johnny Five is great. It's almost as if the Wall-E and Delorean projects combined. It's a great nostalgic IP, and a nice large build of a robot. I did not get the Delorean or Wall-E, but I might be tempted to buy Johnny Five (despite the fact that I typically only purchase things in minifigure scale). Of the 3 I voted for here, I think it's the least likely.

The one I'd most like to see is the Old Fishing Store, but I think it uses too many pieces and is very unlikely to pass the review phase. I am 1 of the 10,000 that supported it on Ideas, though.

[ReplicaOfLife]

Fossil Museum. I can easily picture this happening, it somehow feels like a mixture of Lego Birds and Research Institute. 600 pieces isn't too big, either - and dinosaurs always sell.

The others are either too big, based on an existing license (which in the past usually led to them being ruled out - though, damn, that BB-8 is a cool design!), or too obscure.

On the other hand... the Particle Accelerator would be in line with some of the eraliest Ideas sets, so who knows.

Edited June 10, 2016 by RogerSmith

[Robert8]

Gingerbread House is the only one with real chances, with it needs to be scaled down a little bit

[Blondie-Wan]

The Gingerbread House definitely seems likeliest to me, but both the Fossil Museum and Johnny Five are smaller or fewer parts than they at first might seem, which could help them. I think all three of those have decent chances. Only one requires licensing and it isn't too onerous, and with the Maze now out at $69.99 for 769 pieces, all three fall into the size / price range of what they've shown they're willing to do.

I don't know that they're likely to approve multiple projects, though, especially with them going into this review with a backlog of four approved sets already waiting for their turns in the production queue.

Edited October 6, 2016 by Blondie-Wan
Added missing "what" to last sentence of first paragraph

[leveldestroyer31]

My vote is going for the rolling BB-8.

[LucyCol]

Johnny Five gets my vote

[Faefrost]

I think the Gingerbread House is the no brainier this go round. No third party IP, broad appeal, fast seasonal sales turnaround, lots of data from the Winter Village.

I don't think being Star Wars-related necessarily kills a project's chances all by itself; it just means the possibility of TLG already working on something similar is greater, and there can be other license factors that complicate things. It should probably be noted that a) every Star Wars project that has made it to review in the past had at least one other likely strike against it, and b) the Dark Bucket project, a Star Wars project that was archived before even getting to review and which is the one Star Wars project for which a specific reason was given for why it wasn't accepted, was indeed declined for a legal reason, but not simply that the license outright forbid doing Star Wars sets through Ideas (rather, it simply infringed on Hasbro's action figure license, and thus would have to have a more substantive brick-based build than just putting a hundred minifigures together).

To me, that suggests that there could in fact be Star Wars projects that could be approved, and we just haven't gotten any of them to review yet. That said, I doubt either of these is likely to be one (even though I like and supported both, and would be happy to be proven wrong). The Jedi Council chamber is probably too large to be done with the limited production capacity currently allocated to Ideas sets, and the rolling BB-8 is fundamentally dependent upon magnet elements they no longer make for safety reasons, and they may be unable to devise a workaround using other magnetic elements.

I say this a lot, but I don't think anyone ever really grasps it. IP licensing is very very complicated. And each license is unique. The licensee and licensor will also never ever talk about terms conditions and specifications of their specific license. Some licenses may be broader or narrower. Some will change over time, etc. so they cannot and will not give blanket rules about pre-existing licenses as regards Ideas. All they can say is that a pre-existing license greatly complicates the review and increases the likelihood of failure. This is because they cannot talk about pre-existing licenses. Ever! The First Rule of Fight Club, Don't Talk About Fight Club! They can't even hint that X or Y might be a possibility. Or that Z or Q are an impossibility under the license. All they can say is exactly what they have said.

But this does not mean that there is any real hope for some of these projects. There is not. It is just that discussing this reveals terms of licensing agreements that they are not permitted to reveal. And each license may be different. Star Wars is going to be one of the more problematic licenses for Ideas. It is safe to assume that anything that appears on screen in the 7 movies, and especially anything created or designed by ILM, is well and clearly spelled out already in the existing license. Disney/Lucasfilms has the expectation of those items to already be a private and contracted matter between the two companies. These subjects will be quickly rejected as pre-existing art. About the only hope for a Star Wars project would probably be an EU subject, that has no official art or design yet.

[Blondie-Wan]

I actually mostly agree with that, though I do still think there could eventually be a Star Wars project approved; I just agree that it would be profoundly unlikely for anything appearing onscreen in the movies to get through.

I also think both of the two Star Wars projects in this batch have particular strikes against them, apart from just being projects from an existing extensive license.

Beyond that, I also fully agree the Gingerbread House is easily the likeliest of this batch to pass. The Fossil Museum should be second, if anything is; it has the fundamental appeal of the Natural History Museum from a couple reviews ago, but without all the structural overhead (walls, etc.) that made that large and brick-intensive and fit into an existing line that already has annual sets planned years in advance. By focusing on just the displays and not the museum structure around them, it makes the project both (much) more affordable and easily-produced than that other museum would have been, as well as more of its own thing instead of merely an addition to the modular building line. And the Ideas line certainly embraces science-related sets.

[CM4Sci]

I'm thinking another none this time. They might cancel Gingerbread House cause they might be making a new one for next year's WV set, who knows.

The rest are too big, licensed, and are more MOCs than actually set-looking sets.

[Blondie-Wan]

I'm thinking another none this time. They might cancel Gingerbread House cause they might be making a new one for next year's WV set, who knows.

I thought the Winter Village line was over.

The rest are too big, licensed, and are more MOCs than actually set-looking sets.

Not all of them are licensed, and one of the ones that is (Johnny 5) is from a new license; it's also not really very large at all.

The others are large, but the Fossil Museum doesn't have as high a brick count as one might think - it has fewer pieces than the Maze.

[Sarah]

Wait! The winter village line is over? Who said this?

[Blondie-Wan]

I think a lot of us read it that way when the 2014 set was Santa's Workshop; that seemed like subject matter they'd save for the final set in the line. Then, last year, they released a tweaked reissue of the Winter Toy Shop, the first set in the series. Several people are under the impression they initially weren't going to release a set last year, since Santa's Workshop was apparently going to close out the theme, but that since the line had been so popular, they decided to have a sort of "encore" with a new version of the first set (and the fact it was nearly the same helped them get it out in time, since it didn't require as much development time as a whole new set - they apparently only decided to release it once they were well past the point at which they'd have had to begin work on a whole new set of they were going to do one).

That said, I don't know for sure. But that was my understanding.

Edited June 18, 2016 by Blondie-Wan

[AFOLguy1970]

I'm thinking another none this time. They might cancel Gingerbread House cause they might be making a new one for next year's WV set, who knows.

The rest are too big, licensed, and are more MOCs than actually set-looking sets.

I am also guessing "none of the above" mainly due to the current backlog of approved Ideas sets and limited factory capability. With that said, if something does get through, it does seem like the museum set or Gingerbread house has relatively the best chance.

[Robert8]

None is likely since there are 4 sets in the works.

But for some reason I think the Gingerbread House can make it

[CM4Sci]

Did you guys forget we're getting a Winter Train? 10254 I think.

[Robert8]

Did you guys forget we're getting a Winter Train? 10254 I think.

?