Mesabi Posted October 28, 2017 Posted October 28, 2017 Hello Ya'll. So I put everything into a spreadsheet to figure things out. This is all the data. I calculated everything assuming your freebee doesn't pay upkeep on runs, which may be wrong, and drag you into more debt. Here's all the data. Name Ships Score Ships total Upkeep Profit Total Extra Ayrlego 10 2 122 230 108 Bastion 4 1 5 18 13 BlackDeathGR 8 3 55 273 218 Bodi 9 3 55 40 -15 Captured Ship! Bregir 34 9 712 308 -404 Lost a Class 4 Breshaun 5 1 5 109 104 Brickwolf 2 1 0 30 30 Capt Wolf 15 3 310 845 535 Captain Genaro 9 2 75 108 33 Charlatan Bay 4 1 0 13 13 Dukesc 41 10 1637 834 -803 Lost 2 class 7, class 2 Elyzabethtowne 0 1 0 22 22 ETTC 17 4 320 211 -109 Lost Class 3 Faladrin 5 2 0 35 35 Flavius Gratian 2 1 0 0 0 Sank Garmadon 5 2 0 230 230 gedryn_y 7 2 5 117 112 gulagurag 6 2 0 27 27 Lost Class 4 Kai NRG 8 2 40 192 152 Kaiju 7 2 5 83 78 Kings Harbour 2 2 0 14 14 Captured Ship! KolonialBeamter 40 6 1850 1439 -411 Lost Class 7 Kot_Z 7 2 5 25 20 Lost Class 5 Kwatchi 8 2 35 40 5 Captured 2 Ships! Legostone 29 4 360 1035 675 MAESTRO 8 2 50 461 411 Maxim I 9 3 25 439 414 MCTC 14 3 242 725 483 Lost Class 6 Mesabi 10 2 122 180 58 Is Awesome Mike S 9 2 90 116 26 MKJoshA 26 4 662 18 -644 Lost Class 7, 2 Phred 31 10 905 686 -219 Lost Class 6 Pombe 4 1 0 0 0 Lost Professor Thaum 6 2 0 81 81 Lost Class 4 Puvel 5 2 0 216 216 Rassilion 4 1 0 37 37 RNTC 14 3 227 338 111 Sebeus I 2 1 0 0 0 Sank SilentWolf 21 5 220 428 208 Lost Class 3 Sir Stig 7 2 5 35 30 Spud the Viking 2 1 0 34 34 Umbra Mantis 7 2 5 439 434 Link to my data https://docs.google.com/a/d.umn.edu/spreadsheets/d/1eJn44HDfrZswK7VEGfUn3r3HuOiL6g_n1FDaYzRNBG4/edit?usp=sharing Couple thoughts on the data. Again, not clear on the whole freebee upkeep costs. Second, losing a ship adds a lot of loss. And a lot of people lost ships... Finally, I didn't do data for the factions. Searats were the only faction with trade ships, but they certainly lost a lot as well. Here's a scatterplot. Notice how scores decrease as ship levels rise.... Screen Shot 2017-10-28 at 1.38.47 AM by North White, on Flickr The highest profit by anyone was @Legostone, who did it with 29 ship levels. The Second and third place came from MCTC at 14 levels, and @Capt Wolf at 15. Additionally, MCTC lost a class 6 ship! The Secret? I'll get to that... Ship cost versus levels Screen Shot 2017-10-28 at 1.39.02 AM by North White, on Flickr Look how exponentially expensive having a large fleet is! So, thoughts. Earlier tonight I mentioned a strategy of having 2 class "2s" and a class 4. I'll refer you back to the first graph. Check out the three dots above the main pack. Those dots each made almost the same amount as adding another class 4 would. Thus, I give you the sweetspot. Any combination of ships that has an upkeep score of less than 125 before being calculated, should make a profit. I would propose 2 class 2s (one free!) and a class 4 to defend them. This gives you a score of 105 (Again, assuming no upkeep on one of them) which only takes 5 Dbs out of your profit. These can be supplemented with a few class "0s" or "1s" which could hold extra cargo points and perhaps generate more revenue. addtitionally, more ships means a less likely chance of losing your entire investment. The ships in the sweet spot I mentioned? @Maxim I: 4, 2 (free), 3. Total Upkeep? 25 Dbs MAESTRO: 4, 4 Total Upkeep? 50 Dbs @Umbra-Manis: 3, 4: Total Upkeep? 25 Dbs Obviously, we can't control external factors such as pirates, but we can control how we go to ports. And right now? Fleets of three are in. Additionally, the whole five or more rule prevents larger fleets without having to pay more. To have a group of five or more costs another 100 Dbs. I already mentioned this, but I think that operating large ships shouldn't be so prohibitively expensive, especially as they're currently functionally useless in a TMCRA. I mean with a one in seven loss rate, I can't afford to send out a big fat ship with high cargo stats. And, as anything above a "5" starts getting really expensive, I just can't seem to find a good way to get it to work. Maybe @Legostone has a trick... I might analyze the data further more to take into account for ports, but this is just going over costs for ships and whatnot. Please correct me if I screwed up. It's 2AM and I should sleep. Finally, Please note that this isn't me complaining or praising the game mechanics. This is just me plugging values into a sheet, and telling you what I make of them. Quote
Bregir Posted October 28, 2017 Posted October 28, 2017 Note that upkeep isn't a flat rate. Your Base upkeep is the total upkeep of all ships (including the free one). Your first 100 DBs in Base upkeep is free, the next 100 has no multiplier, and from there there is an increasing multiplier as upkeep rises. Note that the big ships should be expensive to run, for instance in war, but of course, big (merchant) ships should also have the chance for a high profit. (Which is something we will be adjusting) Quote
Spud The Viking Posted October 28, 2017 Posted October 28, 2017 Thanks for compiling this @Mesabi, very interesting read. I think it will take time and effort from both sides (traders and game-masters) until the trade becomes 'balanced'. That's my two pence anyway. Quote
Legostone Posted October 28, 2017 Posted October 28, 2017 @Mesabi Thanks for doing this! I wanted to do something similar (I might bring 1 more aspect to the table later), but didn’t get around doing it just yet. A small note - my total profit (practically) is even higher than that, because the class 4 in my fleet is upkeep free as I had won it in CH4B. Class 5+7+2+4 is 18, not 29 - not sure where you are getting that 29 from. Given that we’ll be rebalancing everything anyways, I think I can publicly mention that I had calculated the harbour saturation for Eslandolan towns together with the cargo levels of our own fleet to get optimum profits for each port (and I think I succeeded there looking at Eslandolan profits compared to our average vessel size...) and well, the optimum level is there where the maximum profit sits - not where you have very low upkeep - I think I was very close to that, I think I could probably get another class 4 at some point... Quote
gedren_y Posted October 28, 2017 Posted October 28, 2017 @Mesabi, I think you have my upkeep too low. I looked it up, and my upkeep should be 25. 50+75-100=25 Quote
Capt Wolf Posted October 28, 2017 Posted October 28, 2017 Another factor in ESL results this month is that most ESL players had a 20% bonus from challenge V, so the results are inflated a bit above the norm. The analysis is fascinating. Thanks for doing this Mesabi! Quote
Mesabi Posted October 28, 2017 Author Posted October 28, 2017 9 hours ago, Bregir said: Note that upkeep isn't a flat rate. Your Base upkeep is the total upkeep of all ships (including the free one). Your first 100 DBs in Base upkeep is free, the next 100 has no multiplier, and from there there is an increasing multiplier as upkeep rises. Note that the big ships should be expensive to run, for instance in war, but of course, big (merchant) ships should also have the chance for a high profit. (Which is something we will be adjusting) I understand the whole Upkeep thing. I used the calculator for everything. The thing is it's still a little prohibitive to run a big ship. The upkeep for a class "10" is 400 Dbs, when calculated. Let's look at a class 10 focused entirely on trade. This ship would run from Breshaun to Weelond, a fairly high trade value run. Range = 1 Maneuver = 6 Firepower = 6 Crew = 5 Cargo = 15 Hull = 6 Total Used = 39 277 + 435= 712 Dbs. multiply by 1.5 from the cargo stats and you get 1,068 Dbs. Cut 400 out of the profit and you get 668 Dbs. That sounds great, but this ship only has about the defensive capabilities of a class 6. A couple of class 5s could probably overwhelm her. (I'm not privy to how combat mechanics work when the ships are run. but for argument's sake go with me.) You can't really add anything to defend her without cutting into profit. Add a class 5? say goodbye to another 210 Dbs. I look forward to seeing the adjusted mechanics. But right now, it's a bit broken. 8 hours ago, Spud The Viking said: Thanks for compiling this @Mesabi, very interesting read. I think it will take time and effort from both sides (traders and game-masters) until the trade becomes 'balanced'. That's my two pence anyway. Thank you! I agree 7 hours ago, Legostone said: @Mesabi Thanks for doing this! I wanted to do something similar (I might bring 1 more aspect to the table later), but didn’t get around doing it just yet. A small note - my total profit (practically) is even higher than that, because the class 4 in my fleet is upkeep free as I had won it in CH4B. Class 5+7+2+4 is 18, not 29 - not sure where you are getting that 29 from. Given that we’ll be rebalancing everything anyways, I think I can publicly mention that I had calculated the harbour saturation for Eslandolan towns together with the cargo levels of our own fleet to get optimum profits for each port (and I think I succeeded there looking at Eslandolan profits compared to our average vessel size...) and well, the optimum level is there where the maximum profit sits - not where you have very low upkeep - I think I was very close to that, I think I could probably get another class 4 at some point... Thanks! Shoot. I should have double checked my numbers. But, that skews the data even heavily further to small fleets. I didn't calculate in CHV bonuses or anything, this is really just an analysis of what combinations of ships worked and what didn't. I'm not sure if the Bonuses are on KPA. If so, then Ya'll won't be able to make so much again. And I'm going to disagree with you there. I see upkeep as so high right now, that it should be the main factor, not profit. As I showed above, big fleets have such high upkeep that the only thing people can do is go to high settlement values, like Breshaun. And I don't like those connotations. For example, The WTC operates out of Mesabi Landing, I would be weird for them to be going from a OL to an ESL settlement, from a gameplay standpoint, in my opinion. 4 hours ago, gedren_y said: @Mesabi, I think you have my upkeep too low. I looked it up, and my upkeep should be 25. 50+75-100=25 Sorry! 1 hour ago, Capt Wolf said: Another factor in ESL results this month is that most ESL players had a 20% bonus from challenge V, so the results are inflated a bit above the norm. The analysis is fascinating. Thanks for doing this Mesabi! Again, I didn't know if the bonuses were in KPA And thank you, I really enjoyed doing this. Quote
Umbra-Manis Posted October 29, 2017 Posted October 29, 2017 Nice write up Mesabi! I was a bit surprised to be listed on the most efficient list given my lack of planing for anything in that department. Quote
Bodi Posted October 30, 2017 Posted October 30, 2017 Nice job Mesabi, that's a very detailed analysis. It reminds me I have won a free class 2 licence, yeah. Quote
pombe Posted October 31, 2017 Posted October 31, 2017 What the jibber jabber is @Mesabi talking about? Who are you trying to be: Mr. T? Who's Mr. T? Nevermind. I believe he's doing an analysis of the last MCRA results and plotting the results for everyone to more easily understand the trends. MATHEMATICS! Such rubbish! One should just skim the data to get a feel for the results! Data analysis is a waste of time! This is exactly why we had to leave Corrington, you stupid professor! For the better. You'll see I'm right. Anyways, what did his silly analysis reveal? Well, it showed inversely proportional trends: as one licenses larger ships, their upkeep goes up exponentially while their profits become negative. It would appear that licensing numerous smaller vessels, instead of fewer larger ones, would be advantageous in the current meta, which appears to go against the spirit of the game. Meta what? Metamorphosis? Um...no. Metatarsal? No. Meta... METAGAME! What? Metagame, you stupid professor! It is the game within the game. Quite so. It refers to the current state of the game as it is played by the players, as opposed to simply following the way the rules are written. I see. So where are we in this game right now? It appears that we've been captured. We've been captured again?!?! @$#%%#^^*&^$#%@$%&^(%^#@$!!! By who this time?! It doesn't say. I suppose we'll just have to make it up. STAY TUNED! @$%%&^#%$#@%&&^&$*!!! Quote
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