Pirates Mafia III - Day Five

[Robin Tremblay]

Updated the tracker with voting record.

Joshua voted for Fabien on D1.

Trenton voted for Jean on D1 and hasn't voted since.

Vote: Fabien Bellamy

[Andrew Laurent]

44 minutes ago, Vincent Denis said:

Uuuuuuum...Maybe just because it involved lynching me, let alone the scummy plan to kill two potential townies while letting the claimed killer live and letting him kill someone, but this sounds like a bad plan. I admit I'm biased. Are you honestly suggesting we tell Fabien to kill Aiden and then track him?? Um, you can see the results of a kill, you know. The proof would be Aiden's dead body. Do you track him to prove that it was actually Fabien who killed Aiden? If you trust Fred, then why wouldn't Fabien "the vigilante" be able to kill? The only question you'd have if he targeted who he said he did is if Aiden isn't dead or there are two kills in one night. Is a better plan to lynch Fabien and then block me (yet again) and Aiden?

Andrew, who is "we?" Does anybody suspect me of being Scum, besides you? I'm not suggesting I'm on anybody's "definite Town" list, but I'm honestly asking because Daniel went off on me for four days and he, Justin and you were the only ones to ever vote for me. So without even knowing my role, please do me a favor and detail these suspicions. I would love to hear them out of someone's mouth, besides Daniel.

Maybe it is a bad plan. But I put it out to get input, and apparently the few that have responded didn't like it too much. The tracking is in case Fabien and aiden are scum - wouldn't want him to kill someone else and then claim he was blocked and some other scum killer did it. Basically, yes, it's an odd and somewhat risky plan. So I want to do anything we can do ensure it works and learn as much as possible, while preventing the scum from screwing things up as much as we can. 

And as for "we" - heck, even you have suggest lynching you. There may not have been many votes on you because we've had better suspects, but you're certainly a suspect for most people I'd assume. 

16 minutes ago, Aiden Leon said:

Are you allowed to quote scum board messages?

What are you even talking about? The sentence you quoted was me saying what we as a town could do in my proposed plan. Nothing at all to do with a scum board. 

15 minutes ago, Peter Lyon said:

I'd much rather lynch Fabien and block Vincent or lynch Vincent and block Fabien.  I don't think we want to let Fabien kill again.  That seems like a dangerous path if we don't trust him.  I believe he can kill and it seems reasonable to conclude that he's not lying about the strongarm ability being one shot.

I'm ok with that too. We'll probably lynch one today and the other tomorrow, but we can do that too. And yes, I can't see strongarm being multi-use, that'd be way overpowered. The only way I can see Fabien NOT being a killer would be if he's scum and sacrificing himself to save the real killer for another night. Either way, we should test that.

Vote: Fabien

[Aiden Leon]

17 hours ago, Fabien Bellamy said:

so I had to use strong-arm tonight. I can only do it once.

Did you have one kill which was a stongman or do you have multiple kills and one was a strongman?

[Fred Dumont]

Vote: Fabien

For all the reasons others have stated. That being said, I am worried that the other scum or two are flying right under our noses.

[Trenton Monette]

I'm also in agreement of the lynch Fabian block Vincent. I'm still not sure whether I trust the claim fully or not. 

Vote: Fabien Bellamy

[Vincent Denis]

54 minutes ago, Andrew Laurent said:

And as for "we" - heck, even you have suggest lynching you. There may not have been many votes on you because we've had better suspects, but you're certainly a suspect for most people I'd assume. 

*Fwomma fwomma fwoooooom*

True, but not because I find myself suspicious. I suggested lynching me but I hope that would be only if people found me scummier than Fabien. Your suggestion is that you do. Your suggestion was to lynch me and kill Aiden at night knocking us both out just to see if we've been working together this whole time and then lynch Fabien if we both turn up Town. And your plan to make sure Aiden was super-dead and couldn't un-lynch himself indicates you believe his claim. If you believe it, why do you figure he wouldn't have used it on Joshua? Or why would he claim it publicly if he was intending to use it later to un-lynch scum? How would that work? He un-lynches someone who we lynch again and they flip scum and then he gets lynched after that? Oh my God, I do ramble! 

My point was...sorry...What made your suspicion of me stronger than someone who admitted having the ability to kill at night? 

*Fwomma fwomma fwom*  Paint your palette blue and gray *Fwomma fwomma fwom fwom fwom*

[Aiden Leon]

7 minutes ago, Vincent Denis said:

And your plan to make sure Aiden was super-dead and couldn't un-lynch himself indicates you believe his claim. If you believe it, why do you figure he wouldn't have used it on Joshua? Or why would he claim it publicly if he was intending to use it later to un-lynch scum? How would that work? He un-lynches someone who we lynch again and they flip scum and then he gets lynched after that? Oh my God, I do ramble! 

Yeah there's a lot of reasons that plan didn't make sense when it came to what to do with me.

Basically alot of things say that if I'm actually a Govenor, then I'm not a scum aligned one. 

[Andrew Laurent]

Vincent, my plan was to check out as many people as possible as quickly as possible. Fabien *could* be a vig as he claimed - if you/Aiden flipped scum, then we'd re-evaluate again. Especially if he took out a scum for us, we'd have to consider if he was telling the truth about his role and be able to solve this thing faster. Plus, I was writing the plan as I thought of it. I knew it wouldn't be perfect; that's why I put it out there for others to help. No one seems to like it, so I'm not pushing for it. We can still catch all the scum. We can still test all 3 of you, one at a time. The group as a whole wants to lynch Fabien first to test his claim. So be it. 

As for Aiden's claim... maybe it's not true. But if it is, it COULD still be a scum-aligned one. He might have not used it to save Joshua because it was too early in the game. Using it would have told everyone there was such a role out there. And it might be critical to have it to save someone at the end. No, those aren't likely. But I was trying, again, to cover as many possibilities and make our test as useful, accurate, and un-screw-with-able as possible. If we were going to take both of you out, and one could possibly mess with the lynch, then why not night-kill him? 

[Robin Tremblay]

We have 5 Votes for Fabien which is the amount needed to lynch. 

[Fabien Bellamy]

 

23 hours ago, Vincent Denis said:

Why would the scum kill fail on Daniel? This is mind-blowing. Why note suggest the scum tried to kill me on night three and Peter was the killer who was blocked last night? This theory that the scum and town killed is an unimaginative gambit to make us believe your killing Daniel wasn't the scum kill. Why not suggest Peter or I are the killer because it's verified we were blocked. Why would your kill go through and the "scum"'s fail? You could even try to say that maybe the scum tried to kill you but you were saved by Daniel's jailkeep. The lack of imagination is what is the scummiest about this claim. You were blocked on night three and there was no kill. You were blocked on night four but you strongarm killed Daniel. This takes away my reasoning that you chose Daniel to implicate me, so if you are scum, I can't figure out why you would admit that you killed him.  

I don't think I said that scum didn't try to kill last night, only that they didn't kill. There are many possibilities why they didn't succeed, and they have been detailed already.

I didn't have to claim, and I could have stayed hidden. If someone had tracked me last night they would have come up with the news before I did. The reason I told you what has happened is because the only one gaining from the confusion is Scum. You would have spent the whole day working on false premises, and when I turned up Town tomorrow you still wouldn't fully understand what actions were involved. So it was important for you to understand exactly what happened. This is not about lacking imagination, is about telling Town the truth when they need it. I also claimed because the night actions appeared to clear Vincent, which is something he would have used until the end of the game. I'm not saying he's Scum, because I don't know. But he's still on the suspect list for sure. Also, as much as I want to think one of the blockers is Scum, in this case none of them helped me with the kill.

 

22 hours ago, Vincent Denis said:

Fabien, if you are the vig and you believe the scum didn't kill, the only option for you is to vote for me, because that would most likely make me the killer. Why haven't you voted for me? Is it because you know if I'm lynched today, I will flip town and you will be lynched on Day Six? Yes, if you are the vig, I can definitely think of other options as to who the killer is because I know damn well it isn't me. But if you are the vig, I believe you would immediately vote for me as it would be the most logical explanation for why we haven't seen the "scum" kill for two nights... 

I need to reconsider all evidence as it looks like my scum radar is broken. I'm not going to spend the time accusing anyone, only analyzing what evidence we have, in the light on me being Town of course. It will prove useful when my alignment is confirmed.

 

20 hours ago, Trenton Monette said:

Why would the scum fail? I could see two kills cancelling out one another (as has happened in a previous game). But your kill has gone through so it can't be the case.  

Fail like in trying to kill Daniel when he was already dead.

 

15 hours ago, Emmett Ware said:

The scum would have been fools to kill Daniel, unless he was on to something, but even then, his blathering and overall uselessness would have never actually gotten anything accomplished, he was the best thing they had going for them. So I'm inclined to almost believe this claim. Problem is, why make the claim at all? I've seen a lot of vigs who screwed up (hell, most of them) and just kept quiet. Difference here, you needed to claim or you had a 50/50 chance of being lynched today. As goofy as claiming to have wrongly killed the scummiest townie in history might be, it could delay your death until tomorrow, scoring another victory for the scum if Vincent isn't one of them and you are. That's the point, isn't it? We're supposed to believe that you're harmless now, but we really don't know. We could possibly insure it, but that isn't definite either. 

See above for why I needed to claim. The point here was not to guarantee my survival, but make sure Town isn't picking the wrong track for the rest of the game. And you're wrong -- I stood a better chance of surviving by not claiming, I knew that claiming would guarantee my lynch. I'm not even fighting it. By lynching me you will validate information that cannot be validated otherwise at this time (not to my knowledge anyway).

 

10 hours ago, Peter Lyon said:

I want to walk through the kills from each night, assuming for now that all the claims so far are accurate.

Night 1:

Remi killed.  Fred (blocker) and Alex (vanilla) were blocked.  Vincent was tracked not targeting anyone.  Joshua (scum) was still alive.

The fact that Joshua is a possible killer makes this night basically impossible to analyze.

Night 2:

Jean killed.  Andrew (blocker) was blocked by Fred.  Robin was jailed by Daniel (confirmed by Emmett).  Andrew tried to block Fabien (failed, because he was blocked by Fred).

Possible killers: Me, Trenton, Aiden, Fabien, Vincent

Night 3:

No kill.  Vincent and Fabien (confirmed by Emmett) were blocked.

Night 4:

Daniel killed by Fabien, who admitted to using a strongarm to do so.

 

Fabien, who did you target nights 1 and 2?

I have limited kills, so I didn't target anyone on nights 1-2.

 

As for night 4:

Aiden. Governor claim. Has never been tracked or blocked. He could be Scum, he could be the killer, he could have tried to kill and fail or hasn't tried at all.

Andrew: has proven that he can block. Can't be the killer, but could still be Scum.

Emmett: has a plausible tracking record, but it's easier to falsify than blocker. Could be Scum, but probably not the killer.

Fred: has proven that he can block. Can't be the killer, but could still be Scum. On the other hand, Andrew and Fred can't both be Scum blockers, right?

Peter: claims a role. Has been blocked by Andrew last night, and Scum didn't kill. Could be the killer.

Robin: claims protector. Has been jailed on night 2, so can't be the killer. Could still be Scum though.

Trenton: No claim, has been tracked by Emmett and did nothing last night. For him to be the killer, Scum must have chosen not to kill. Perhaps less likely?

Vincent: claims a role. Has been jailed then blocked. Could be the killer.

 

So from my point of view, we have 3 more likely candidates for Scum killer: Aiden, Peter and Vincent. Since I'm lynched and there's plenty of time left, is there anything I missed that would help shorten this list?

 

8 hours ago, Andrew Laurent said:

So... Here's a thought... a potential plan. It'd test a lot of people at once.

Lynch Vincent, since he's still a possible scum killer.

Block Aiden, in case he's lying about his role and has something that could interfere. 

Tell Fabien to kill Aiden, have Emmett track him so that we know for sure if he goes after Aiden(not entirely necessary, but could be useful in case the scum try to screw with things). 

We get two of the possible scum out at once. If Fabien doesn't go along, we have an obvious lynch tomorrow. If Fabien will go along with it, then we have to consider if he's actually a vig or just playing along hoping to make it to the end and win for the scum team.

I'd initially written this with Aiden/Vincent flipped. But it's possible that Aiden as governor could un-lynch himself, and that'd screw things up. So he needs to be a night kill.

The risk is obvious. If I'm completely wrong and Aiden/Vincent are both town, then we'd lose 2. But these are all 3 the people we suspect anyway, so why not test them faster? The alternative is to lynch Fabien or Vincent today, block Fabien if we decide to lynch Vincent over him, and then have the same debates tomorrow. 

I can't help you anyway, I can't kill two nights in a row. I could do it last night because I was blocked the night before.

 

7 hours ago, Aiden Leon said:

Did you have one kill which was a stongman or do you have multiple kills and one was a strongman?

The latter.

 

5 hours ago, Vincent Denis said:

True, but not because I find myself suspicious. I suggested lynching me but I hope that would be only if people found me scummier than Fabien. Your suggestion is that you do. Your suggestion was to lynch me and kill Aiden at night knocking us both out just to see if we've been working together this whole time and then lynch Fabien if we both turn up Town. And your plan to make sure Aiden was super-dead and couldn't un-lynch himself indicates you believe his claim. If you believe it, why do you figure he wouldn't have used it on Joshua? Or why would he claim it publicly if he was intending to use it later to un-lynch scum? How would that work? He un-lynches someone who we lynch again and they flip scum and then he gets lynched after that? Oh my God, I do ramble! 

The problem is, nobody believes a claim unless proven. Aiden could be a Town Governor, or could be a Scum not-Governor. There's no proof either way.

 

[Robin Tremblay]

Just now, Fabien Bellamy said:

So from my point of view, we have 3 more likely candidates for Scum killer: Aiden, Peter and Vincent. Since I'm lynched and there's plenty of time left, is there anything I missed that would help shorten this list?

Aiden, Peter and Vincent all voted for Joshua.

[Fabien Bellamy]

Just now, Robin Tremblay said:

Aiden, Peter and Vincent all voted for Joshua. 

Yup. You didn't. Yet I wouldn't expect a Scum not to vote on a Scum bandwagon.

[Robin Tremblay]

Just now, Fabien Bellamy said:

Yup. You didn't. Yet I wouldn't expect a Scum not to vote on a Scum bandwagon.

You didn't vote for Joshua.

Your top 3 suspects all voted for Joshua.

Your night action is killing. You felt confident enough that Justin and Daniel were both Scum to target.

[Fabien Bellamy]

Just now, Robin Tremblay said:

You didn't vote for Joshua. 

Your top 3 suspects all voted for Joshua. 

Your night action is killing. You felt confident enough that Justin and Daniel were both Scum to target. 

Correct.

[Bob]

Vote Count:
Andrew Laurent - 1 (Aiden Leon)
Fabien Bellamy - 5 (Peter Lyon, Robin Tremblay, Andrew Laurent, Fred Dumont, Trenton Monette)

About 33 hours remain in this day. Five votes are required to lynch.

[Andrew Laurent]

8 hours ago, Fabien Bellamy said:

As for night 4:

Aiden. Governor claim. Has never been tracked or blocked. He could be Scum, he could be the killer, he could have tried to kill and fail or hasn't tried at all.

Andrew: has proven that he can block. Can't be the killer, but could still be Scum.

Emmett: has a plausible tracking record, but it's easier to falsify than blocker. Could be Scum, but probably not the killer.

Fred: has proven that he can block. Can't be the killer, but could still be Scum. On the other hand, Andrew and Fred can't both be Scum blockers, right?

Peter: claims a role. Has been blocked by Andrew last night, and Scum didn't kill. Could be the killer.

Robin: claims protector. Has been jailed on night 2, so can't be the killer. Could still be Scum though.

Trenton: No claim, has been tracked by Emmett and did nothing last night. For him to be the killer, Scum must have chosen not to kill. Perhaps less likely?

Vincent: claims a role. Has been jailed then blocked. Could be the killer.

 

So from my point of view, we have 3 more likely candidates for Scum killer: Aiden, Peter and Vincent. Since I'm lynched and there's plenty of time left, is there anything I missed that would help shorten this list?

 

I can't help you anyway, I can't kill two nights in a row. I could do it last night because I was blocked the night before

For Emmett to be lying about his tracker claim, he'd have to be cahoots with the other scum to fake it. If I remember right, he claimed to have seen Daniel visit Robin before Daniel said so. And since Daniel is town, they wouldn't have collaborated on something like that. And he definitely said who I blocked night 3 before I revealed it, and I know I didn't tell him (but it is possible that Fred's scum and told him our plan). So I'm 99% on Emmett being a legitimate town tracker. 

8 hours ago, Robin Tremblay said:

Aiden, Peter and Vincent all voted for Joshua.

On day 2, here was the final votes on Joshua with confirmed town in green:

Joshua Levitt - 9 (Jean Pelley, Andrew Laurent, Vincent Denis, Aiden Leon, Peter Lyon, Daniel Lucas, Emmett Ware, Justin Reynaud, Fred Dumont)

This is one of the few things still making me question whether Aiden and Vincent could be scum - their position on the vote range. When Vincent put #3 on Joshua, Daniel already had 3. When Aiden put #4 on Joshua, Daniel was at 5. Why would scummy Vincent/Aiden make those votes, when town Daniel was in such an easier place to knock off? 

 

At the risk of sounding like Vincent and Daniel, this game is starting to make my brain hurt. The possible scum killers at this point are Aiden, Fabien, Peter, Vincent. Right? Am I missing anything there? 

I'm so torn. I almost unvoted Fabien last night. I can't see why a scum-killer Fabien would claim. I guess it's a gamble either way - not claim, hope that everyone can focus on someone else, and you live to kill another night. Or wait, this does make sense now. If Fabien is the scum killer, he can claim, knowing that he'll probably get lynched for it (but there's a good chance he or another scum would get lynched anyway). But in doing so, his kill will certainly get passed to a different scum. And so now our night analysis is f'd. We'd have to start all over with blocking to try and figure out who is the new scum killer. Dang, that's brilliant. Anyone see a flaw in this thinking? 

So now - do we lynch him as likely scum, or do we avoid his trap and lynch someone else and put a blocker on him for the rest of the game so he can't kill again? 

For the moment, I'll

Unvote: Fabien

We've got plenty of hours left to sort through this. I'm not entirely opposed to lynching him - getting rid of likely scum is always good. But is it the BEST option? 

[Fabien Bellamy]

31 minutes ago, Andrew Laurent said:

At the risk of sounding like Vincent and Daniel, this game is starting to make my brain hurt. The possible scum killers at this point are Aiden, Fabien, Peter, Vincent. Right? Am I missing anything there? 

I'm so torn. I almost unvoted Fabien last night. I can't see why a scum-killer Fabien would claim. I guess it's a gamble either way - not claim, hope that everyone can focus on someone else, and you live to kill another night. Or wait, this does make sense now. If Fabien is the scum killer, he can claim, knowing that he'll probably get lynched for it (but there's a good chance he or another scum would get lynched anyway). But in doing so, his kill will certainly get passed to a different scum. And so now our night analysis is f'd. We'd have to start all over with blocking to try and figure out who is the new scum killer. Dang, that's brilliant. Anyone see a flaw in this thinking?  

So now - do we lynch him as likely scum, or do we avoid his trap and lynch someone else and put a blocker on him for the rest of the game so he can't kill again?  

For the moment, I'll 

Unvote: Fabien

We've got plenty of hours left to sort through this. I'm not entirely opposed to lynching him - getting rid of likely scum is always good. But is it the BEST option?  

Yes it's the best option. If you block me, you run the risk of missing the actual killer. You will need to block-track Aiden, Peter and Vincent tonight, because the killer won't be moving with my lynch. Now you will think that I'm trying to get lynched in order to pass the kill action to someone you won't be watching so closely, but it isn't true. I'm trying to get lynched so that you can verify my alignment.

Vote: Fabien.

[Andrew Laurent]

I fully admit you may be telling the truth. The problem is that you'd be doing the exact same things either if you're the town vig or the scum killer right now. Yes, a lynch will tell us which you are. But if you are a scummy scummo killer, then we're playing right into your diabolical scheme. If we don't lynch you, we need to block you and block/watch 2 out of Aiden, Peter, Vincent. If we DO lynch you, then we have another choice to make. Trust that you're town and block/track those 3, or believe that you're scum and go after 3 others to prevent/catch the scum killer. So I'm glad we've got 30ish hours to make a decision. 

[Vincent Denis]

2 hours ago, Andrew Laurent said:

Unvote: Fabien

1 hour ago, Fabien Bellamy said:

Vote: Fabien.

*Fwom fwom—

What is happening?

2 hours ago, Andrew Laurent said:

If Fabien is the scum killer, he can claim, knowing that he'll probably get lynched for it (but there's a good chance he or another scum would get lynched anyway). But in doing so, his kill will certainly get passed to a different scum. And so now our night analysis is f'd. We'd have to start all over with blocking to try and figure out who is the new scum killer. Dang, that's brilliant. Anyone see a flaw in this thinking?  

You propose that Fabien wants to be lynched and then he proves it. So, yes, I would say Fabien's behavior shows that he's much more likely the scum killer than the town vig. He claims now that he can't kill two nights in a row so he can't kill Aiden like you were proposing. Sounds to me like he's trying to not get blocked if he is around because, "Hey, new rule, I can't kill on consecutive nights." This would be more believable if he had told us this when he first claimed. Yes, if he were to stay in the game, he'd be perpetually blocked and the scum would not be able to kill. This means the scum team is impatient. Fabien's theory that the scum would choose not to kill to implicate those who are blocked carries less weight when he actually has the ability to kill. If he is the vig, then why would he float the theory that the scum couldn't kill if he knew the presence of his kill might confuse our ability to think a blocked player on a night where there is no kill would be scum? All signs point to him being scum, right?

So, the proposal then is to, what? Keep him in the game, block him, trust that he can't strongarm kill again and lynch who, exactly? Do we block me and Fabien throughout the rest of the game? How do we catch the other scum, then? If we have a very likely scum, we should lynch him. We caught Fabien by blocking him, right? If we lynch Fabien and he is the scum killer, the scum are freed up to kill again. You have to block me, right? So, the other block is the best bet of catching the scum so we block the next most suspicious player. Who is that? Also, how do we stop the new killer from taking out a blocker? We can have Robin protect one of them so they can't risk it. We can ask Robin to protect one of the claimed and coordinating power roles so the killer can't risk guessing the wrong one. Assuming Robin is Town. I think his "argument" with Fabien seems rather scripted. I'm stuck in a loop of what-ifs now. I think the best bet is to lynch Fabien. Are there three scum? Four? Would Bob give the last scum a block and a kill? We just don't know. I'm open to choosing a best path, but I feel like if we have scum in our crosshairs, we need to take him out. 

I've been composing this post for so long I'm now trying to think of how to catch the other scum if we do decide not to lynch Fabien. Andrew, on one hand it seems like you're trying to save your scum buddy from a lynch. On the other hand, I see the value of getting the killer stuck and unable to kill, assuming he can't strongarm kill again. Why would we believe that? Can we trust that this feeling is correct and the scum actually can't pass the kill around? In Pirates II they had a killer, ninja blocker and a framer. Who'd they keep when Joshua died (or is there a fourth this time?) I don't see what to do next if we don't lynch Fabien. 

I can't compose short posts.  IF we weren't to lynch Fabien, the other scum could be:

Trenton—Emmett says he didn't target anyone, he hasn't claimed a role. Is he ninja blocker? Is that how Daniel was unsuccessful? Wouldn't the ninja blocker have interfered in the other actions at this point? Wouldn't we have seen some evidence of his existence?

Aiden—Hasn't been confirmed by any Night Actions but claims to not have targeted anyone and also claims one-shot Governor. Is it one-shot or am I making shit up? He scummily defended me from a crazy person, which I'm grateful for and I don't necessarily find it scummy. Especially since, from my perspective, he was more on the offensive against Daniel's posting style than in defense of anything I was doing. 

Robin—His reactions to Fabien seem scripted, but that's not a reason to lynch someone as it's my viewpoint which is subjective. Claims some sort of limited protection that he doesn't want to divulge because he doesn't want the scum to know. I can't figure out what these "limitations" would be, but I'm not going to press him for them. Either way, it's a little odd and I don't fully trust him.

Peter—Has claimed a role and we know it's active as he confirmed being blocked. This could be a significant town role, then. I imagine the scum can still do stuff, so it's potentially a scum role. If Daniel was right about one thing, not knowing Fabien's claim led us to mis-lynch Justin. I suppose if we had known he was the "vig" we might've been more suspicious of him.

Vincent—I'm me and I know I'm Town so fill in your own reasons. I was blocked on a night where there was no kill. I diabolically suspected Andrew on Day One.  That's all I understand about whatever Daniel's suspicion revolve around. I used the word "scummy" incorrectly. Only Aiden knows my role. None of the rest of you know what I do at night.

You guys can just call me mental vomit from now on. Sorry. I do freaking post walls of text, even when—almost especially when—I'm trying not to. 

*Fwom fwom fwomma fwom fwoooooom fwom, fwomma fwom fwom fwooooooom fwom fwom*  Ain't no sunshine when she's gone *Fwomma fwom fwom fwomma fwooooom, fwomma fwom fwom fwomma fwoooooooom*

[Andrew Laurent]

2 minutes ago, Vincent Denis said:

*Fwom fwom—

What is happening?

You propose that Fabien wants to be lynched and then he proves it. So, yes, I would say Fabien's behavior shows that he's much more likely the scum killer than the town vig. He claims now that he can't kill two nights in a row so he can't kill Aiden like you were proposing. Sounds to me like he's trying to not get blocked if he is around because, "Hey, new rule, I can't kill on consecutive nights." This would be more believable if he had told us this when he first claimed. Yes, if he were to stay in the game, he'd be perpetually blocked and the scum would not be able to kill. This means the scum team is impatient. Fabien's theory that the scum would choose not to kill to implicate those who are blocked carries less weight when he actually has the ability to kill. If he is the vig, then why would he float the theory that the scum couldn't kill if he knew the presence of his kill might confuse our ability to think a blocked player on a night where there is no kill would be scum? All signs point to him being scum, right?

So, the proposal then is to, what? Keep him in the game, block him, trust that he can't strongarm kill again and lynch who, exactly? Do we block me and Fabien throughout the rest of the game? How do we catch the other scum, then? If we have a very likely scum, we should lynch him. We caught Fabien by blocking him, right? If we lynch Fabien and he is the scum killer, the scum are freed up to kill again. You have to block me, right? So, the other block is the best bet of catching the scum so we block the next most suspicious player. Who is that? Also, how do we stop the new killer from taking out a blocker? We can have Robin protect one of them so they can't risk it. We can ask Robin to protect one of the claimed and coordinating power roles so the killer can't risk guessing the wrong one. Assuming Robin is Town. I think his "argument" with Fabien seems rather scripted. I'm stuck in a loop of what-ifs now. I think the best bet is to lynch Fabien. Are there three scum? Four? Would Bob give the last scum a block and a kill? We just don't know. I'm open to choosing a best path, but I feel like if we have scum in our crosshairs, we need to take him out. 

I've been composing this post for so long I'm now trying to think of how to catch the other scum if we do decide not to lynch Fabien. Andrew, on one hand it seems like you're trying to save your scum buddy from a lynch. On the other hand, I see the value of getting the killer stuck and unable to kill, assuming he can't strongarm kill again. Why would we believe that? Can we trust that this feeling is correct and the scum actually can't pass the kill around? In Pirates II they had a killer, ninja blocker and a framer. Who'd they keep when Joshua died (or is there a fourth this time?) I don't see what to do next if we don't lynch Fabien. 

I can't compose short posts.  IF we weren't to lynch Fabien, the other scum could be:

Trenton—Emmett says he didn't target anyone, he hasn't claimed a role. Is he ninja blocker? Is that how Daniel was unsuccessful? Wouldn't the ninja blocker have interfered in the other actions at this point? Wouldn't we have seen some evidence of his existence?

Aiden—Hasn't been confirmed by any Night Actions but claims to not have targeted anyone and also claims one-shot Governor. Is it one-shot or am I making shit up? He scummily defended me from a crazy person, which I'm grateful for and I don't necessarily find it scummy. Especially since, from my perspective, he was more on the offensive against Daniel's posting style than in defense of anything I was doing. 

Robin—His reactions to Fabien seem scripted, but that's not a reason to lynch someone as it's my viewpoint which is subjective. Claims some sort of limited protection that he doesn't want to divulge because he doesn't want the scum to know. I can't figure out what these "limitations" would be, but I'm not going to press him for them. Either way, it's a little odd and I don't fully trust him.

Peter—Has claimed a role and we know it's active as he confirmed being blocked. This could be a significant town role, then. I imagine the scum can still do stuff, so it's potentially a scum role. If Daniel was right about one thing, not knowing Fabien's claim led us to mis-lynch Justin. I suppose if we had known he was the "vig" we might've been more suspicious of him.

Vincent—I'm me and I know I'm Town so fill in your own reasons. I was blocked on a night where there was no kill. I diabolically suspected Andrew on Day One.  That's all I understand about whatever Daniel's suspicion revolve around. I used the word "scummy" incorrectly. Only Aiden knows my role. None of the rest of you know what I do at night.

You guys can just call me mental vomit from now on. Sorry. I do freaking post walls of text, even when—almost especially when—I'm trying not to. 

*Fwom fwom fwomma fwom fwoooooom fwom, fwomma fwom fwom fwooooooom fwom fwom*  Ain't no sunshine when she's gone *Fwomma fwom fwom fwomma fwooooom, fwomma fwom fwom fwomma fwoooooooom*

Would we be facing a scum killer with multiple-use strongarm? That seems grossly overpowered to me. A strongarm makes sense in a game with 3 blockers, but not multi-use. 

In what world would scum-Andrew be trying to save scum-Fabien? That' would be SO easy to test out. Let Fabien live, have Fred block him. If fred's block fails, that means scum-Andrew blocked fred and won the coin flip, so then you lynch me. There can't be another blocker out there or we'd have seen some evidence by now. 

I'm worried that lynching Fabien will just let the scum kill move to someone else and then we're starting over trying to catch them. If we know where the kill is, we can tie Fabien up and prevent him from killing until we're pretty sure he's the last scum, and then we lynch him. That's safer. 

Your comments on people:

Trenton - I can't see ninja blocker being a thing again this game. We haven't had any unexplained blocks. And a 4th blocker? 3 is putting enough suspicion on me, I don't wanna fathom a 4th.

Aiden - big unknown here. I get keeping the role secret for a long time, if it's real, since it most useful when people don't know it's there until used. But also could be making something up because he's a godfather or something. 

Robin - I'm trying to figure out what he's got going on that could be so secret. A babysitter (he can protect, but if Robin gets night-killed both his protectee and Robin die)? A bodyguard or version thereof (he dies in place of the target, or he dies AND takes out the killer)? A rolestopper (prevents ANY actions from affecting his target)? A seraph knight (once he picks a target, he protects that person for the rest of the game until he's killed himself)? Does it even matter? Not really... 

Peter - big unknown here. 

Vincent - another big unknown. I've thought you town most of the game, but now I've come up with scenarios where you could be a scummo. Also, wasn't there something weird with night 1 and you were tracked but unsuccessful and we weren't sure why? Crap, now I have to go back to the possibility of a ninja blocker... 

[Emmett Ware]

I'm not going to make a long post here, sadly the ghost of he-who-shall-not-be-named seems to still be in possession of some of us and is still flooding the days.

So honestly, I don't think it's Fabien, or at least I don't think we can be even vaguely secure that it is, and at this point, the numbers are becoming worrysome.

I wonder what we would get out of Aiden using his role, which I don't see being that useful otherwise, to save him. It would prove the role, but still not absolutely help with alignments. I don't know, it's just a thought.

As for blocking Vincent and Fabien for the rest of the game, at this point, what else do we have to do? Are there such good block targets that we need to kill either of them to free up the spot? I don't see it.

[Andrew Laurent]

Having Aiden use his role accomplishes only one thing - it uses it up, assuming he's only got 1 shot with it. Governor can be town or scum, and just proving that he has it doesn't tell us anything about him. It'd also let him over-ride the will of the town if most people want to lynch Fabien. 

Sure, we could just block Vincent and Fabien the rest of the game while voting one person at a time out. But that doesn't let us test Peter, Robin, Aiden, Trenton via blocks at all. 

 

[Robin Tremblay]

Just now, Andrew Laurent said:

Having Aiden use his role accomplishes only one thing - it uses it up, assuming he's only got 1 shot with it. Governor can be town or scum, and just proving that he has it doesn't tell us anything about him. It'd also let him over-ride the will of the town if most people want to lynch Fabien. 

Sure, we could just block Vincent and Fabien the rest of the game while voting one person at a time out. But that doesn't let us test Peter, Robin, Aiden, Trenton via blocks at all. 

 

I have already been tested. I was jailed on N2 when there was a murder.

[Vincent Denis]

18 minutes ago, Emmett Ware said:

So honestly, I don't think it's Fabien, or at least I don't think we can be even vaguely secure that it is, and at this point, the numbers are becoming worrysome.

*Fwom fwom*

I'm sorry. This shocked the hell out of me. Are you saying that you don't think Fabien is scum?

*Fwom fwom fwom fwom, fwom fwom fwom fwom*

[Peter Lyon]

5 hours ago, Andrew Laurent said:

getting rid of likely scum is always good. But is it the BEST option? 

Umm... yes.  We lynch the person we think is most likely to be scum.

2 hours ago, Vincent Denis said:

I've been composing this post for so long I'm now trying to think of how to catch the other scum if we do decide not to lynch Fabien. Andrew, on one hand it seems like you're trying to save your scum buddy from a lynch. On the other hand, I see the value of getting the killer stuck and unable to kill, assuming he can't strongarm kill again. Why would we believe that? Can we trust that this feeling is correct and the scum actually can't pass the kill around? In Pirates II they had a killer, ninja blocker and a framer. Who'd they keep when Joshua died (or is there a fourth this time?) I don't see what to do next if we don't lynch Fabien. 

If we assume for a moment that Fabien is the scum killer with strongarm abilities.  It stands to reason it's limited shot.  Otherwise, we could've expected a N3 kill when he was blocked.  He knew he was likely to be blocked again N4 so he forced his way through.

53 minutes ago, Emmett Ware said:

So honestly, I don't think it's Fabien, or at least I don't think we can be even vaguely secure that it is, and at this point, the numbers are becoming worrysome.

I wonder what we would get out of Aiden using his role, which I don't see being that useful otherwise, to save him. It would prove the role, but still not absolutely help with alignments. I don't know, it's just a thought.

As for blocking Vincent and Fabien for the rest of the game, at this point, what else do we have to do? Are there such good block targets that we need to kill either of them to free up the spot? I don't see it.

I think we need to lynch someone, and right now that ought to be Fabien or Vincent to avoid the situation of having to block them both the rest of the game.  I personally would rather lynch Fabien as we've had no evidence that there are multiple kills possible.  Claiming limited shot gives an explanation for that, but without multiple kills on the same night or killing a scummo, there's no evidence that he's not scum.  Voting for himself seems disingenuous to me.

If we don't lynch Fabien and the scum kill off a blocker tonight, then we have to lynch one of them tomorrow unless we have new/better information.  That's possible, but we could be back to where we are today with less ability to address the situation.

I think we lynch Fabien, block Vincent again, and then pick one of the others of us to block and track tonight.