LEGO Sci-Fi Ongoing - Rumors, Speculation, and Discussion

[danth]

5 minutes ago, Murdoch17 said:

Technically, it is minifig scale... just for baby minifigs.  You could consider it playground equipment.

If there's room for a minifig in all the builds, they just become microfighter scale.

[GeoBrick]

More variety in babynauts? Sweet! And the set itself is a nice homage too.

Too bad the appearant run of this GWP is before the rumoured retail release date of the MTS, and after the order timeframe of the BDP round 1 sets. But I assume those weren't eligible anyway for receiving GWP's for.

[Lion King]

On 2/1/2024 at 3:19 PM, brimbolet said:

$200/£170 threshold... I'll pass

Me too. And I don’t want to chase after that GWP set on eBay or Bricklink as well. I just want a white Astro baby one. 

[brimbolet]

3 hours ago, Lion King said:

Me too. And I don’t want to chase after that GWP set on eBay or Bricklink as well. I just want a white Astro baby one. 

I'm sure the new astrobaby will appear in another set. I'd like to have one too.

[Lyichir]

56 minutes ago, brimbolet said:

I'm sure the new astrobaby will appear in another set. I'd like to have one too.

While that would certainly be nice, I wouldn't necessarily take that assumption for granted—it's not unheard of for a GWP figure to remain exclusive. It's not impossible for it to show up elsewhere, but I wouldn't consider it a guarantee either.

[Black Falcon]

Especially since we have no sign of any similar sets turning up in the new future. Even if they would make a new Classic Space Set like the Galaxy Explorer I don´t see them adding a Baby there, because they would likely stay close to the original as they did with the Explorer - and a baby just wouldn´t fit there. And I wouldn´t think they white babys will be pretty cheap on Bricklink either.

[Space78]

14 minutes ago, Black Falcon said:

 And I wouldn´t think they white babys will be pretty cheap on Bricklink either.

Especially if the purchase threshold is $200 or greater, seems like Lego may not be giving out a lot of these sets.  Also, I suspect late February is a slower time at Lego for sales.  It must pick up around Easter with the Easter sets they run, then after that it's Star Wars with May the 4th week.  While it seems not everyone wants the full GWP, many seem to want the white space baby.  It will be interesting to see what the asking prices will be on the secondary market. 

Question: there are a few items for March 1st release that can be pre-ordered.  If you purchase them as a pre-order, do they count toward getting a GWP, or does it have to be items in stock?

On a different note, this is the 10th anniversary of the Lego Movie.  Any bets that we will get some anniversary sets, such as a small Benny set to commemorate?  This seems possible given the space theme this year.

[Black Falcon]

6 minutes ago, Space78 said:

Especially if the purchase threshold is $200 or greater, seems like Lego may not be giving out a lot of these sets.  Also, I suspect late February is a slower time at Lego for sales.  It must pick up around Easter with the Easter sets they run, then after that it's Star Wars with May the 4th week.  While it seems not everyone wants the full GWP, many seem to want the white space baby.  It will be interesting to see what the asking prices will be on the secondary market. 

Question: there are a few items for March 1st release that can be pre-ordered.  If you purchase them as a pre-order, do they count toward getting a GWP, or does it have to be items in stock?

If you preorder Sets you get the GWPs. If you can preorder the Medieval Town Square when this GWP is avaiable I can see quite a few people preordering it to get this GWP, especially since we have no info about a Castle GWP that would be sold when the set is released yet.

6 minutes ago, Space78 said:

On a different note, this is the 10th anniversary of the Lego Movie.  Any bets that we will get some anniversary sets, such as a small Benny set to commemorate?  This seems possible given the space theme this year.

I don´t think we will see any Lego Movie related sets unless we get a third movie - which at this point seems unlikely too

 

[Lion King]

I don’t agree with Black Flacon’s opinion. I mean, who knows when will astrolabes will ow up in regular sets or CMFs? In other word, Lego is competely unpredictable. So I won’t think too much about it. 

Oh and i think non-Classic Space sets would be great. Like City Space sets. 

[Black Falcon]

37 minutes ago, Lion King said:

I don’t agree with Black Flacon’s opinion. I mean, who knows when will astrolabes will ow up in regular sets or CMFs? In other word, Lego is competely unpredictable. So I won’t think too much about it. 

Yeah, well but the point really is in the end we don´t know. So if you are waiting for them to show up elsewhere you might have to wait long, or it can just not happen at all - so when you really want a baby the best option is still to get it end of the month. 

BTW we had an Baby in a CMF already and getting a second one in the next CMF - and even that just because it is a space series, so I wouldn´t expect any classic space babies in the next time from CMFs.

37 minutes ago, Lion King said:

Oh and i think non-Classic Space sets would be great. Like City Space sets. 

I don´t think it is impossible to happen that they would use them there - but then they wouldn´t have the classic space logo, since the city one is a bit different.

[Lion King]

46 minutes ago, Black Falcon said:

Yeah, well but the point really is in the end we don´t know. So if you are waiting for them to show up elsewhere you might have to wait long, or it can just not happen at all - so when you really want a baby the best option is still to get it end of the month. 

Probably you are right but who knows. :) 

[Kit Figsto]

I don't see this GWP having as high of a BL price as some people in this thread are expecting.  The Blacktron Cruiser had a threshold of, if I remember right, around $180 in the US and has 343 parts with a new minifigure included, and you can get it for $25 US on BL.  Majisto's Workshop was, if I remember right, a $250 threshold, comes with 354 pieces, two figures, and you can get it for $25 US on BL right now.  The Forest Hideout was around $150 of a purchase threshold, comes with 248 pieces and two minifigures, both of which I believe have remained exclusive, and is a little over $20 US. 

The only GWPs that seem to really go nuts in resale price are ones locked to VIP presales of UCS-type sets (like the Star Wars lightsaber promos), or some of the exclusive licensed minifigure polybags from like ten years ago (even that, that totally depends on the characters and figure - Hoth Han Solo is $7, Darth Revan is $250).

If it's above $30, especially in the first few months after it's available, I'd be very surprised.

Edited February 5, 2024 by Kit Figsto

[Space78]

5 minutes ago, Kit Figsto said:

I don't see this GWP having as high of a BL price as some people in this thread are expecting.  The Blacktron Cruiser had a threshold of, if I remember right, around $180 in the US and has 343 parts with a new minifigure included, and you can get it for $25 US on BL.  Majisto's Workshop was, if I remember right, a $250 threshold, comes with 354 pieces, two figures, and you can get it for $25 US on BL right now.  The Forest Hideout was around $150 of a purchase threshold, comes with 248 pieces and two minifigures, both of which I believe have remained exclusive, and is a little over $20 US.

Right, but all the GWPs you mentioned as examples were re-makes of vintage sets.  For example, I have no interest in the Blacktron GWP since I have the original, which IMO is much better than the re-make.  Lots of similar comments about the Majisto GWP. 

I think what sets the Micro Space Launchpad GWP apart is NOT being a remake, but rather a microbuild inspired by several CS sets.  So, to me, it is a NEW set, not just a remake of a vintage set.  How desirable it ends up being is anyone's guess.

[Kit Figsto]

2 hours ago, Space78 said:

Right, but all the GWPs you mentioned as examples were re-makes of vintage sets.  For example, I have no interest in the Blacktron GWP since I have the original, which IMO is much better than the re-make.  Lots of similar comments about the Majisto GWP. 

I think what sets the Micro Space Launchpad GWP apart is NOT being a remake, but rather a microbuild inspired by several CS sets.  So, to me, it is a NEW set, not just a remake of a vintage set.  How desirable it ends up being is anyone's guess.

True, but I don't really know if that would affect demand all that much.  None of these GWPs are limited or tied only to a specific set, and they all have similar $$$ thresholds, so I think that the actual number produced is probably in the same ballpark (within a few hundred, say?).  I have no idea how many of these GWPs are out there, I'd say it's in the thousands for sure, but I truly have no idea.  You could tell me it's 5,000 or 25,000 and I'd believe you either way.

Anyway, point being, I don't think the demand of this being a truly new set would really be enough to raise prices that much.  I would guess that a large portion of those buying the Blacktron Cruiser, Forest Hideout, or Majisto's Workshop either don't own the original and can't afford one (a new Blacktron Invader is currently $650 on Bricklink, used will still run at least $50, which is essentially double the cost of a NIB version of the remake) , which could actually raise the prices.

Your perspective is interesting, as I actually have the opposite reaction to this.  I'm more interested in the GWPs that remake old sets, precisely for the reasons I outlined above, since I like a lot of the classic sets, but wasn't alive when they were out and cannot afford to buy them.  This set looks neat, but I don't really have the same interest that I would if it was, say, a remake of an M-Tron or Space Police ship.  

Either way, though I would be very surprised if it cost more than $30-40 to pick up on BL, just because the actual availability of this set won't be all that limited.

Edited February 5, 2024 by Kit Figsto

[Black Falcon]

22 minutes ago, Kit Figsto said:

I don't see this GWP having as high of a BL price as some people in this thread are expecting.  The Blacktron Cruiser had a threshold of, if I remember right, around $180 in the US and has 343 parts with a new minifigure included, and you can get it for $25 US on BL.  Majisto's Workshop was, if I remember right, a $250 threshold, comes with 354 pieces, two figures, and you can get it for $25 US on BL right now.  The Forest Hideout was around $150 of a purchase threshold, comes with 248 pieces and two minifigures, both of which I believe have remained exclusive, and is a little over $20 US. 

When I take a look is especially see some quite cheap offers from Chinese Sellers, which you would have to ship over the whole globe and also make shipping not that cheap. If I look at the avaiability from sellers in my country Forestmen Hideout is 35€, Blacktron indeed is 25€ but I think if that minifigure wouldn´t have been avaiable at Pick a brick that price might have been a bit higher too. Majisto is 30€ but we shouldn´t forget if we argue with the high threshold, that you got more than one GWP for this price and it was sold for Insiders-Weekend/Blackfriday which is usually a time with high sales. 

BTW, Gringotts is sold for 60€ here so higher prices are also possible, though I wouldn´t think the new GWP will be sold that high, but 30-40€ seem reasonable to me, especially because it has an exclusive Space baby. 

22 minutes ago, Kit Figsto said:

The only GWPs that seem to really go nuts in resale price are ones locked to VIP presales of UCS-type sets (like the Star Wars lightsaber promos), or some of the exclusive licensed minifigure polybags from like ten years ago (even that, that totally depends on the characters and figure - Hoth Han Solo is $7, Darth Revan is $250).

If it's above $30, especially in the first few months after it's available, I'd be very surprised.

I think it depends on many things but obviously exclusivity to a certain set surely is one big reason a set can have an high price, especially when the set it is exclusive to is expensive. Other things beiing thresold, avaiability (like if it is sold at an double insiders for instance), how popular the gwp is etc.

For example I think it could influence the price of the GWP if the Medieval Town Square could be preordered at the time the GWP is avaiable, as more GWPs might be avaiable at the marked I would think the GWP would be sold cheaper. 

[Space78]

17 minutes ago, Kit Figsto said:

Either way, though I would be very surprised if it cost more than $30-40 to pick up on BL, just because the actual availability of this set won't be all that limited.

I hope you are right.  My daughter wants one, but I don't think I'll be spending $200 in Lego to get this GWP for her.  If it costs $30 on secondary market, that'd be a deal.  At 325 pieces, it would be right at the 10 cents per part mark.

Agree, price on secondary market will depend on availability.  I believe the Blacktron set was offered as a GWP twice last year, so Lego maybe had a lot of those or overestimated the interest in them as a GWP?

4 minutes ago, Black Falcon said:

For example I think it could influence the price of the GWP if the Medieval Town Square could be preordered at the time the GWP is avaiable, as more GWPs might be avaiable at the marked I would think the GWP would be sold cheaper. 

Agree.  Some of the March 1 release SW sets are available for pre-order now, so SW fans may be getting the space GWP when they pre-order and then sell them to bring down the total cost of their order.

[Black Falcon]

10 minutes ago, Space78 said:

I hope you are right.  My daughter wants one, but I don't think I'll be spending $200 in Lego to get this GWP for her.  If it costs $30 on secondary market, that'd be a deal.  At 325 pieces, it would be right at the 10 cents per part mark.

I would try places like Ebay at the time it is avaiable, as many are selling their unwanted gwp right away there and it usually should be able to get one cheaper there than on bricklink.

10 minutes ago, Space78 said:

Agree, price on secondary market will depend on availability.  I believe the Blacktron set was offered as a GWP twice last year, so Lego maybe had a lot of those or overestimated the interest in them as a GWP?

I think GWPs beeing sold two times a year is pretty common now, and there was quite some time between both times it was avaiable. Possible they had quite some leftover and produced more for a second run but it seems also likely that it was just planned from the beginning.

10 minutes ago, Space78 said:

Agree.  Some of the March 1 release SW sets are available for pre-order now, so SW fans may be getting the space GWP when they pre-order and then sell them to bring down the total cost of their order.

Possible some might do that, but I think most will wait for may the fourth or for the nonexclusive ones just buy them with discounts.

[danth]

1 hour ago, Kit Figsto said:

a new Blacktron Invader is currently $650 on Bricklink

To be clear, that's just the asking price. It's unlikely anyone would pay that price. A new Renegade recently sold for less than half of that.

[Artanis I]

Probably will depend on how many people want to get the white baby via the aftermarket

[jonwil]

Given that the Blacktron GWP torso appeared on PaB last year (I should know, I bought some in an order), maybe the white space baby will appear on PaB this year...

 

Edited February 6, 2024 by jonwil

[Lion King]

12 hours ago, jonwil said:

Given that the Blacktron GWP torso appeared on PaB last year (I should know, I bought some in an order), maybe the white space baby will appear on PaB this year...

 

@Black Falcon As i said Lego is unpredtictable, I’m prett sure we would see a white astrobaby in PaB… :)  So we shall see. 

I ember Forestmen’s Hideout torsos showed up in PaB too. 

[Black Falcon]

11 minutes ago, Lion King said:

@Black Falcon As i said Lego is unpredtictable, I’m prett sure we would see a white astrobaby in PaB… :)  So we shall see. 

I ember Forestmen’s Hideout torsos showed up in PaB too. 

Forestmen Hideouts Torsos showed up in PaB because they are used in Lion Knights castle. The Blacktron minifig is actually the only GWP exclusive minifigure that I remember showing up on Pick a brick, so no idea why you are so sure that baby will show up there.

[Lion King]

34 minutes ago, Black Falcon said:

Forestmen Hideouts Torsos showed up in PaB because they are used in Lion Knights castle. The Blacktron minifig is actually the only GWP exclusive minifigure that I remember showing up on Pick a brick, so no idea why you are so sure that baby will show up there.

Oh, I Honeslty don’t know but i opmistically assume Astro baby will show up eventually. 

[Space78]

1 hour ago, Lion King said:

Oh, I Honeslty don’t know but i opmistically assume Astro baby will show up eventually. 

Has the blue space baby from last year's CMF and the space roller coaster set shown up on PAB?

[Black Falcon]

16 hours ago, Space78 said:

Has the blue space baby from last year's CMF and the space roller coaster set shown up on PAB?

The head is avaiable but seems like the body is not. Anyways not a good deal since the head is already almost as expensive as the whole CMF.