In 40 years? 

Let's see. Today - 40 years = 1981. For simplicity, lets round that down to 1980.

1980. So what did we have back then? Ahh sure the bricks. Electronics? Well. Personal computers? CD's? The internet - a decade in the future. 3D printing? Huh? There were needles punching dots on paper, regarded as very high resolution. A 3 PDP 10s were still regarded as mighty computers - discontinued only three years later. And Queen did "Another one bites the dust". And I did get my high school diploma.

I have not the faintest idea(s) - zero - what will be in 40 years from now - other than that most probably I will be dead. Which is entirely OK - that is what life is all about.

VR/AR and 3D printing don't need anything close to 40 years to develop into something that nobody can even remotely envision.

Best
Thorsten 

 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, MAB said:

I don't think they believe otherwise. LEGO still manufactures and sells physical brick based building sets.

Of course they do, my point is that I expect that they will continue doing more and more of those digital products in the future.

TLG is tipping their toes in the water of digital world right now and with the failure of Hidden Side it's obvious that they are stumbling. Still, I believe they will learn and adapt, and electronics (beyond dumb motors and light/sound bricks) are going to be integrated more into the play experience. As of what shape that might take in the far future, it's impossible to say, but a lot can happen in 3-4 decades and if you consider how electronics is constantly spreading into all areas of life, it's pretty unlikely that Lego would be an exception there.

More new of everything. New parts, new colors, new minifigs, new themes. Maybe a biodegradable material, if not yet. Unless the company screws up big time, they will always have a market so I expect them to grow double at least in 40 years.

I am afraid they are going to switch to all digital instructions.

Minifigures: Considering the fact that LEGO figures have not changed much in the last 40 years, I do not think there will be significant changes to them 40 years later. In regards of fully articulated figures, the technic articulated figures did not sell very well and that is probably the reason TLG still isn't making them.

1989 vs 2020:

Use of bricks: Since LEGO is already planning on using all natural materials in 2030, I wouldn't be surprised if surprised if LEGO makes the majority of the bricks using plants. However, there is a possibility that the brick quality will be worse and the costs may be higher.

Colors: While there wasn't that much color palettes in the past, the available colors feels more than enough for now. It is highly likely for LEGO to use existing colors in new sets, maybe with the exception of licensed sets.

Representing water: I think the techniques used for 21313/92177 Ship in a Bottle does that very well, and the same technique could be used in other sets, too!

Special designs for specific shapes: Absolutely! I think this is what many builders have been asking for years, but these ones should be the most popular:

• Airplane nose and wings - Planes seem to be very popular in the LEGO community and this may be the only way to make them look more authentic.
• New train tracks - A lot of other companies had produced train track designs that LEGO did not have, but if LEGO creates more designs then train fans will get them without worrying about the brick quality
• New advanced battery box - Sometimes the hub can look a bit out of place in particular sets, and I think it will definitely be a good idea to create hubs that can only fit in specific sets. Even though this is a lot of work, they can potentially make the sets sell better.

 

16 hours ago, JintaiZ said:

Use of bricks: Since LEGO is already planning on using all natural materials in 2030, I wouldn't be surprised if surprised if LEGO makes the majority of the bricks using plants. However, there is a possibility that the brick quality will be worse and the costs may be higher.

This isn't correct. LEGO are going to be continuing to use plastic, not "all natural" materials. They are hoping to be able to source the components of the plastics they use from renewable sources (that is, plants) rather than oil. Both plants and oil are natural. Plastics synthesised from the chemical precursors derived from both plants and oil are not natural.

 

On 3/5/2021 at 4:42 PM, Lyichir said:

No offense, but trying to think 30-40 years ahead is downright terrifying to me. Not to get political, but we're currently in the midst of a global pandemic and looking at an oncoming climate catastrophe, all while authoritarianism has a resurgence in many areas of the world. In the midst of all that I can barely manage to plan for this year or even the next few months, let alone that far in the future.

I dunno. On the off-chance that I'm still alive in 30-40 years, I certainly hope Lego will still be around for me to enjoy, at least. But frankly I don't think I can project anything that far ahead with confidence anymore, not when so much of what I took for granted as a kid has been so wildly destabilized over the past few years.

Lyichir has it right. So much of the larger world beyond LEGO will change over the next 40 years that there’s really no telling how it’ll affect LEGO, or countless other things. It’s simply too great a timespan, and things are changing too rapidly right now.

Climate change in particular has the potential to completely upend the entirety of civilization as we know it. How well we respond to and manage it may determine whether it’s even possible for an entity like LEGO to continue to exist at all. And that’s just one consideration. Even more mundane exigencies like the ever-changing tides of the toy business world might easily have LEGO face a crisis like the one it did back in the 2000s, and there’s no guarantee they’ll survive it as they did then.

I’m not trying to be unduly pessimistic; it’s just that forty years is an awfully long time, and a lot can (and will) happen in that time. And LEGO, for all the company’s size and wealth and all of their products’ everlasting appeal, is still subject to powerful forces far greater than itself.

21 hours ago, JintaiZ said:

Use of bricks: Since LEGO is already planning on using all natural materials in 2030, I wouldn't be surprised if surprised if LEGO makes the majority of the bricks using plants. However, there is a possibility that the brick quality will be worse and the costs may be higher.

They never promised to completely replace everything and technically it won't be possible for some materials to rely on fossil sources. You know, formation of the molecule, length of individual molecule strands and all that. And using "natural" materials doesn't mean that they are necessarily more environmentally friendly. Nothing is gained if producing those materials consumes tons of energy and water or they decompose just as slowly as traditional plastic materials. That's the same thing as with electric cars for instance - you have to see the big picture and the overall footprint.

Mylenium

On 3/16/2021 at 1:33 PM, Mylenium said:

They never promised to completely replace everything and technically it won't be possible for some materials to rely on fossil sources. You know, formation of the molecule, length of individual molecule strands and all that. And using "natural" materials doesn't mean that they are necessarily more environmentally friendly. Nothing is gained if producing those materials consumes tons of energy and water or they decompose just as slowly as traditional plastic materials. That's the same thing as with electric cars for instance - you have to see the big picture and the overall footprint.

Mylenium

While it may be harder to convert some materials than others, their goal is to try to transition their plastics entirely to renewably-sourced versions. Part of that goal is finding substitutes for materials that can't be formulated from non-petroleum-based sources, such as the recent shift from Polycarbonate to MABS (Methyl methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene) for transparent parts (these parts are not sourced from plants yet but will purportedly be easier to convert to plant-based sources in the future).

Your points about the limits of this are valid (this is not being proposed as a solution for end-of-life and the energy costs are definitely a factor, though Lego has been investing in renewables on that end as well). But ultimately the transition is important to Lego not just because of the environmental benefits (and the accompanying PR benefit), but also because of the economic benefits of transitioning off of an increasingly scarce and potentially volatile resource.

13 hours ago, Lyichir said:

of an increasingly scarce and potentially volatile resource.

Oil reserves have grown significantly in recent years due to a) less overall consumption and b) massive exploration efforts. Yes, of course it makes sense on every level to switch to alternatives, but apparently natural oil is not as rare as everyone thought ten or twenty years ago...

Mylenium

 

 

Sets will be enhanced by augmented reality.    Your Lego X-wings will fire AR laser beams that arc across the room.