42146 - Liebherr LR13000

[Unbrickme]

8 hours ago, allanp said:

What pattern do you see between 42100 and Cat D11, that doesn't also apply to the Volvo hauler (besides tracks)? The crane was originally intended for 2022. 

They're both control+ sets with around 4k pieces. They were released at the same time two years apart. Therefore, the successor to this series, the liebherr crane, will be released in october of 2023

[allanp]

8 hours ago, Unbrickme said:

They're both control+ sets with around 4k pieces. They were released at the same time two years apart. Therefore, the successor to this series, the liebherr crane, will be released in october of 2023

But if the crane was released 2022 as originally intended (and we really don't have much evidence to suggest otherwise) then that would have broken the pattern yes?

Having said that, in the years prior to control+ there did appear to me to be a two year pattern of complex flagship sets that interested me and simpler flagship sets that didn't, but there were a few exceptions to this, so I think that was probably just coincidence instead of a pre designed plan. Control+ seems to have reset that "pattern", I bought 42100 for the supply of new powered up parts but didn't buy the Volvo hauler or the Cat D11! They are well designed and engineered sets but powered ups reliance on smart hubs and coding (which I'm just not interested in) make sets feel more like mindstorms versions rather than Technic versions, which might explain why there was no room for mindstorms anymore, leaving fans of both Technic and Mindstorms out in the cold.

[howitzer]

15 hours ago, Unbrickme said:

They're both control+ sets with around 4k pieces. They were released at the same time two years apart. Therefore, the successor to this series, the liebherr crane, will be released in october of 2023

2 sets doesn't make a pattern or series. Not saying there isn't (or won't be) one, but unless you have some official knowledge coming from TLG, we just don't know if there is such a pattern or not.

[Unbrickme]

13 hours ago, allanp said:

But if the crane was released 2022 as originally intended (and we really don't have much evidence to suggest otherwise) then that would have broken the pattern yes?

Having said that, in the years prior to control+ there did appear to me to be a two year pattern of complex flagship sets that interested me and simpler flagship sets that didn't, but there were a few exceptions to this, so I think that was probably just coincidence instead of a pre designed plan. Control+ seems to have reset that "pattern", I bought 42100 for the supply of new powered up parts but didn't buy the Volvo hauler or the Cat D11! They are well designed and engineered sets but powered ups reliance on smart hubs and coding (which I'm just not interested in) make sets feel more like mindstorms versions rather than Technic versions, which might explain why there was no room for mindstorms anymore, leaving fans of both Technic and Mindstorms out in the cold.

 

6 hours ago, howitzer said:

2 sets doesn't make a pattern or series. Not saying there isn't (or won't be) one, but unless you have some official knowledge coming from TLG, we just don't know if there is such a pattern or not.

 I mean, I guess LEGO can break the two year pattern on occasion. the bucket wheel excavator, rough terrain crane, 42100 excavator, and the cat d11 bulldozer are all considered to be part of the same series. Their release schedule, respectively, is this: 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021. However, notice that 2019 was the first year in lego technic to get the new control+ system, which possibly led to the excavator being released a year earlier. In fact it was supposed to be released in August of 2019 because it was supposed to be the set that introduced the control+ system, but due to production issues it got pushed back to october. So that's the main reason for the breaking of the two year pattern here, control+. There are plenty of other sets that follow the two year pattern, such as the 1:8 supercars.

porsche 911 gt3 rs - 2016

bugatti chiron - 2018

lamborghini sian - 2020

ferrari daytona - 2022

Also the small $50 cars

chevrolet corvette - 2019

mclaren senna gtr - 2021

bugatti bolide -2023

Maybe the $50 pullback sets of 2022 can be put into this category as well? That would break the two year pattern, but those sets are pullback so they don't really count in my opinion. But if the two year pattern follows, I guess we can expect $50 pullback sets again in 2024

Also the 1:10 scale cars have a 2 year pattern

porsche 911 rsr - 2019

ferrari gt3 rs - 2021

According to the pattern we should have seen a 1:10 scale car in January 2023, but we didn't. According to rumors though, we will see a $200 Peugeot 9X8 Hypercar on May 1st. Perhaps LEGO still follows the two year pattern with the 1:10 scale cars but  the release just got pushed back a few months. I mean, fair enough, considering January isn't the best time to release expensive sets, since people just bought expensive things a few weeks earlier for christmas.

I mean, it's always possible that the two year pattern breaks, but I feel like LEGO already had a very strong schedule with these two year patterns.

I feel like the liebherr crane was indeed supposed to be released in 2022, but then the marketing department came in and said "we have to follow the two year pattern" which is why it was delayed

[msk6003]

6 hours ago, Unbrickme said:

I guess we can expect $50 pullback sets again in 2024

NO. Please not again do that TLG

[valenciaeric]

The pattern used to be an infrared controlled flagship in August one year followed by a standard PF set the next year and the supercar series was separate. Last year there was no flagship at all.

Things changed when they started releasing sets like the Landrover at weird times of the year, which could have almost been a flagship itself if it had had PF and of course when Con+Troll was launched.

Edited December 14, 2022 by valenciaeric

[Maaboo the Witch]

1 hour ago, valenciaeric said:

Con+Troll

[Ngoc Nguyen]

1 hour ago, valenciaeric said:

Con+Troll

Sir you just won the Internet

[Toastie]

17 minutes ago, Ngoc Nguyen said:

1 hour ago, valenciaeric said:

Con+Troll

Sir you just won the Internet

OK, I have to change my pants now ...

Best,
Thorsten

[howitzer]

18 hours ago, Unbrickme said:

 

 I mean, I guess LEGO can break the two year pattern on occasion. the bucket wheel excavator, rough terrain crane, 42100 excavator, and the cat d11 bulldozer are all considered to be part of the same series. Their release schedule, respectively, is this: 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021. However, notice that 2019 was the first year in lego technic to get the new control+ system, which possibly led to the excavator being released a year earlier. In fact it was supposed to be released in August of 2019 because it was supposed to be the set that introduced the control+ system, but due to production issues it got pushed back to october. So that's the main reason for the breaking of the two year pattern here, control+. There are plenty of other sets that follow the two year pattern, such as the 1:8 supercars.

porsche 911 gt3 rs - 2016

bugatti chiron - 2018

lamborghini sian - 2020

ferrari daytona - 2022

Also the small $50 cars

chevrolet corvette - 2019

mclaren senna gtr - 2021

bugatti bolide -2023

Maybe the $50 pullback sets of 2022 can be put into this category as well? That would break the two year pattern, but those sets are pullback so they don't really count in my opinion. But if the two year pattern follows, I guess we can expect $50 pullback sets again in 2024

Also the 1:10 scale cars have a 2 year pattern

porsche 911 rsr - 2019

ferrari gt3 rs - 2021

According to the pattern we should have seen a 1:10 scale car in January 2023, but we didn't. According to rumors though, we will see a $200 Peugeot 9X8 Hypercar on May 1st. Perhaps LEGO still follows the two year pattern with the 1:10 scale cars but  the release just got pushed back a few months. I mean, fair enough, considering January isn't the best time to release expensive sets, since people just bought expensive things a few weeks earlier for christmas.

I mean, it's always possible that the two year pattern breaks, but I feel like LEGO already had a very strong schedule with these two year patterns.

I feel like the liebherr crane was indeed supposed to be released in 2022, but then the marketing department came in and said "we have to follow the two year pattern" which is why it was delayed

The large construction/earthmoving sets obviously don't form a pattern, as the one year gap between 42082 and 42100 breaks it, as do the difference in functions/operation, the first two being single motor PF sets with manual control and partially manual functions while the latter two are are PU remote control sets with lots of motors and very little in the way of manual functions.

Only such pattern I see is the UCS cars, and maybe the small cars might also develop into one (Corvette & followers) but even three data points is pretty flimsy basis to suggest a pattern.

There's also the fact that TLG has no obligations to follow any sort of pattern they might have created - it all depends on sales and the visions of the production directors and marketing department. So even if there's a pattern now, it could end/change any time and we would be none the wiser until the sets are confirmed.

[allanp]

12 hours ago, howitzer said:

The large construction/earthmoving sets obviously don't form a pattern, as the one year gap between 42082 and 42100 breaks it, as do the difference in functions/operation, the first two being single motor PF sets with manual control and partially manual functions while the latter two are are PU remote control sets with lots of motors and very little in the way of manual functions.

Only such pattern I see is the UCS cars, and maybe the small cars might also develop into one (Corvette & followers) but even three data points is pretty flimsy basis to suggest a pattern.

There's also the fact that TLG has no obligations to follow any sort of pattern they might have created - it all depends on sales and the visions of the production directors and marketing department. So even if there's a pattern now, it could end/change any time and we would be none the wiser until the sets are confirmed.

I think that's very accurate. The existence of any pattern that we see is no indication that the pattern will necessarily continue or that the pattern was intentionally created (unless TLG specifically say otherwise such as with the UCS cars). 

[Ngoc Nguyen]

In a recent Q&A story on Promobricks's Instagram, there's a question about news on 42146.

Promobricks replied with the meme Look How They Massacred My Boy (The Godfather) and a line "+ you will have to pay much money for it."

I guess the set has been reduced in scale.

[efferman]

Height is roundabout 100cm as i heard. The lego booth is like fort knox

[Jockos]

I don't even know why do they participate then... if they just want to avoid leaks, why bother going to TFs? 

27 minutes ago, Ngoc Nguyen said:

In a recent Q&A story on Promobricks's Instagram, there's a question about news on 42146.

Promobricks replied with the meme Look How They Massacred My Boy (The Godfather) and a line "+ you will have to pay much money for it."

I guess the set has been reduced in scale.

I think it was mentioned some time ago that the size reduction was the reason for the delay. Now it would be down-sized again.. so twice the price, double the fall

[HydroWorld Outlook]

1 hour ago, Jockos said:

I don't even know why do they participate then... if they just want to avoid leaks, why bother going to TFs? 

I think it was mentioned some time ago that the size reduction was the reason for the delay. Now it would be down-sized again.. so twice the price, double the fall

Well, at least TLG is taking care of the issue before they release the set. It's either we wait the extra year and have a strong, sturdy model that works correctly, or have a flawed end product that doesn't stay together and suffers the same fate as the 42113 V-22 Osprey that crunched those 8-tooth gears into oblivion. We wouldn't want this set to be suddenly pulled from production and then only exist as a precious collector's item like the Osprey did, so let's be grateful that TLG is taking the necessary actions to avoid further cancellations of sets they release. 

And besides, smaller is technically better when it comes to LEGO builds. Most of us are likely going to be storing this thing on our shelves or on display 95% of the time anyways, so the smaller the crane is, the easier it will be store the model without having to undo many hours of work disassembling massive components of it immediately after building just to put it away.

Edited February 4, 2023 by HydroWorld Outlook

[1gor]

On 2/4/2023 at 7:05 PM, HydroWorld Outlook said:

 

And besides, smaller is technically better when it comes to LEGO builds. Most of us are likely going to be storing this thing on our shelves or on display 95% of the time anyways, so the smaller the crane is, the easier it will be store the model without having to disassemble important components of it immediately after building.

That makes sense; small or mid size models are mostly enjoyable 

(models up to approximately 40 studs length and up to 30 studs height)

Edited February 7, 2023 by 1gor

[Jockos]

55 minutes ago, HydroWorld Outlook said:

Well, at least TLG is taking care of the issue before they release the set. It's either we wait the extra year and have a strong, sturdy model that works correctly, or have a flawed end product that doesn't stay together and suffers the same fate as the 42113 V-22 Osprey that crunched those 8-tooth gears into oblivion. We wouldn't want this set to be suddenly pulled from production and then only exist as a precious collector's item like the Osprey did, so let's be grateful that TLG is taking the necessary actions to avoid further cancellations of sets they release. 

And besides, smaller is technically better when it comes to LEGO builds. Most of us are likely going to be storing this thing on our shelves or on display 95% of the time anyways, so the smaller the crane is, the easier it will be store the model without having to undo many hours of work disassembling massive components of it immediately after building just to put it away.

I see your point, and completely agree with you, but my main concern is neither the size reduction, nor the delay. If the crane turns out the way Promobricks' news said, and have to pay much more (more than 450€/$ ?) for it after the first and second reduction, it's simply worse value than the previous rumours stated.

[nerdsforprez]

16 hours ago, Jockos said:

I see your point, and completely agree with you, but my main concern is neither the size reduction, nor the delay. If the crane turns out the way Promobricks' news said, and have to pay much more (more than 450€/$ ?) for it after the first and second reduction, it's simply worse value than the previous rumours stated.

I also will try not to place too much stock in rumors.  But me being a crane guy, I really hope this is not true.   This is supposed to be a sure buy for me.  Hoping for some good news but getting a little worried.....

[gyenesvi]

20 hours ago, Jockos said:

I think it was mentioned some time ago that the size reduction was the reason for the delay. Now it would be down-sized again.. so twice the price, double the fall

How do you know if he's not referring to the already rumoured size reduction? We don't even know if that was true, as we never knew the original size for sure, but now assuming another size reduction is kind of very speculative and counterintuitive. Also, the price was never confirmed either, and inflation was like 20% in one year, so it could easily change.

[howitzer]

Nothing is confirmed until it's officially confirmed. I'm really curious to see how this set will turn out but I don't make judgement of it's quality or if it's worth the price, until there's some definitive information available. And even then I'd rather wait on reviews before deciding if it's going to be worth the money.

[allanp]

There may be other issues with releasing the originally rumoured 5 foot tall crane, I mean, it's not going to be operated by trained crane drivers, it'll be over loaded and fall over and land on a 2 year old and Lego gets sued etc. It's not like the completely static Eiffel tower. But it doesn't matter, while a larger sized model can allow for a "better" model, it doesn't mean it will be better. But also, if they kept the winch drums large, the counterweight heavy and base/turntable solid then we can easily add our own sections back in, to make it the originally intended height. Maybe they include extra sections of truss you use as a load to lift? As a Technic fan I'd love to see the tallest Lego model be a Technic model. You'd think it would be, rather than a brick built Eiffel tower, but like I say, the Eiffel tower doesn't move.

[TeamThrifty]

On 2/4/2023 at 6:05 PM, HydroWorld Outlook said:

Most of us are likely going to be storing this thing on our shelves or on display 95% of the time anyways

Really? Do most display rather than dismantle and moc? Sorry, its a tangent i know... perhaps a poll would be interesting? 

[keymaker]

On 2/4/2023 at 7:05 PM, HydroWorld Outlook said:

Most of us are likely going to be storing this thing on our shelves or on display 95% of the time anyways

It depends on what group of people you consider as "us". But in some sense you may be right. Because as far as I know, in case of numbers of people in particular groups, I think it looks like this:

people who collect Lego sets, build them and putting on shelf >> people, who buy sets to use it in their MOCs

So based on this, I would say you are in the first group which is larger that second group.

For me I don't know if I will buy it, it strongly depends on what parts it will contain, because I'm pretty sure I do not need next crane on my shelf. I have one on my shelf - my beloved set from childhood - 8460 - and it is all I need from this category :)

[Aleh]

On 12/14/2022 at 1:24 AM, Unbrickme said:

Also the 1:10 scale cars have a 2 year pattern

porsche 911 rsr - 2019

ferrari gt3 rs - 2021

According to the pattern we should have seen a 1:10 scale car in January 2023, but we didn't.

If I'm not wrong we will see a blue Ford GT this year

[Jockos]

40 minutes ago, Aleh said:

If I'm not wrong we will see a blue Ford GT this year

I think the Ford is rather in scale with last year's Batmobile and Dom's Charger, so about 1:12, but a Peugeot 9x8 Hypercar will be coming, perhaps in the 1:10 scale.

Edited February 7, 2023 by Jockos