Holiday Madness Mafia: Day 2

[Classic_Spaceman]

1 hour ago, Trekkie99 said:

This is my reasoning. I was waiting for someone to suggest the simplest possibility cause it might indicate them having some foreknowledge.

"How does that indicate foreknowledge? We were getting way too bogged down in speculating on how roles could've cancelled out to prevent a kill last night and overlooking the more likely possibility. That's just basic deduction - The simplest answer is generally the right one!" 

"I'm now interested in knowing why you think this explanation in particular is suspect - Do you know something?" 
 

[Trekkie99]

41 minutes ago, Classic_Spaceman said:

"How does that indicate foreknowledge?

"I'm now interested in knowing why you think this explanation in particular is suspect - Do you know something?" 
 

The ol switcheroo. You say you don't understand the accusation, yet you probably understand the logic enough since you just asked me the same thing.

[KotZ]

VOTE COUNT
George (Classic_Spaceman) - 2 (penalty, Trekkie99)
Susan (mostlytechnic) - 1 (penalty)
Scott (Tariq J) - 1 (penalty)

There are 24 hours left in the day. With five players, a majority of three (or more with penalty votes) is required to lynch. In the event of a tie due to the penalty votes, there will be no lynch.

[Tariq j]

I’m torn to be honest. I don’t think anyone here has said anything outright scummy. Voting for someone with a penalty isn’t necessarily wrong in my eyes, there are 5 of us anyway and three of those (myself included) have a penalty vote - and we have to vote for someone. On the basis of inactivity I’m going to Vote: Susan (Mostlytechnic) 

[mostlytechnic]

On 12/11/2024 at 10:05 AM, Tariq j said:

It wouldn’t be too improbable. I’m sure there have been larger games where the killer and protector have targeted the same player.

With only 5, assuming both actions happened, it's 20%. So not terribly unlikely. Not likely, but far from unbelievable. 

 

2 minutes ago, Tariq j said:

 On the basis of inactivity I’m going to Vote: Susan (Mostlytechnic) 

Understandable. 

However, I'm going to

Vote: Scott (Tariq J)

simply as a retaliation vote :) There's plenty of time to change it if I see a reason, but I absolutely can't risk NOT voting today and getting penalized again.... 

[Bob]

8 hours ago, Trekkie99 said:

This is my reasoning. I was waiting for someone to suggest the simplest possibility cause it might indicate them having some foreknowledge.

That's some really bad reasoning.

Vote: Eloise (Trekkie99) 

I don't understand your logic and to me it looks like you're just trying to get an easy lynch by voting for someone with a penalty vote using a flimsy reasoning.

[Classic_Spaceman]

6 hours ago, Trekkie99 said:

The ol switcheroo. You say you don't understand the accusation, yet you probably understand the logic enough since you just asked me the same thing.

“I said I don’t understand your reasoning, but I’d like to know how you’re coming to your conclusions.” 
 

5 hours ago, Tariq j said:

Vote: Susan (Mostlytechnic) 

5 hours ago, mostlytechnic said:

Vote: Scott (Tariq J)

“Careful - You’ve both got a one-vote penalty, so all it’d take is a Naughty Lister switching their vote late in the day for you to get killed!” 
 

54 minutes ago, Bob said:

That's some really bad reasoning.

Vote: Eloise (Trekkie99) 

I don't understand your logic and to me it looks like you're just trying to get an easy lynch by voting for someone with a penalty vote using a flimsy reasoning.

“Yeah, I agree; I’ll have to Vote: Eloise (Trekkie99) as well, unless she can provide some better reasoning.” 
 

[mostlytechnic]

4 hours ago, Classic_Spaceman said:

“Careful - You’ve both got a one-vote penalty, so all it’d take is a Naughty Lister switching their vote late in the day for you to get killed!” 

True, but wouldn't that tell us something at least? There was a 3 way tie with two votes each when I placed mine, so a last-minute flip on someone who turned up Nice would indicate the flipper was a likely Naughty, wouldn't it?

4 hours ago, Classic_Spaceman said:

“Yeah, I agree; I’ll have to Vote: Eloise (Trekkie99) as well, unless she can provide some better reasoning.” 

And now, everyone has voted and there's a FOUR way tie with 4 of us having two votes each. Only Clark is sitting there nice and relaxed with no votes on him. 

[Trekkie99]

4 hours ago, Classic_Spaceman said:

“I said I don’t understand your reasoning, but I’d like to know how you’re coming to your conclusions.” 

I've used the same tactic to confuse town by submitting no night kill. The fact you suggested it might mean you did it.

[Classic_Spaceman]

1 hour ago, mostlytechnic said:

True, but wouldn't that tell us something at least? There was a 3 way tie with two votes each when I placed mine, so a last-minute flip on someone who turned up Nice would indicate the flipper was a likely Naughty, wouldn't it?

"It could, but we really don't have the people to spare on a gamble like that!" 

1 hour ago, mostlytechnic said:

And now, everyone has voted and there's a FOUR way tie with 4 of us having two votes each. Only Clark is sitting there nice and relaxed with no votes on him. 

"Let's see what happens - I'd like to see another day without a lynch, since we don't have too much to go on, but I'm expecting someone to flip last-minute. That said, I'm becoming increasingly suspicious of Eloise; she talks a lot without really saying anything, and her reasoning for voting for me feels less like a Nice Lister uncovering a scummy plot, and more like a Naughty Lister who feels caught and is trying to deflect." 
 

57 minutes ago, Trekkie99 said:

I've used the same tactic to confuse town by submitting no night kill. The fact you suggested it might mean you did it.

"Or the fact that you played the same card before means you're playing it again, and you're trying to get rid of me since I was able to see through the confusion and reveal your plot? See - We can go round and round all day like this; it's just more confusion!" 
"Personally, the 'If you suggest a potential plot then you're the one who did it' line of reasoning - especially when it's based in something you did before - just doesn't hold up from a Nice List perspective." 
 

[Trekkie99]

That's the best I got for now. I started from zero, now it's your turn. To justify your suspicion of me, you'll have to come up with a better scum read than I could. And that doesn't include your current suspicion of me. 

If you can't, then you're suspicion is hypocritical, and I get to accuse you of attempting to shut down and gain a easy lynch on whoever is first to start scum hunting.

And you don't get to say 'It's too early to be scum hunting' (strawman argument). It'll always be too early if someone doesn't start.

 

[Trekkie99]

With all that said and only about 2 to 2.5 hrs left in the day, I'd say George (Bob) is the most likely to be scum rn. Scum is more likely to be self conscious about a penalty vote (yes that could include me), unless they're playing wifom. Also middle vote on the wagon of a player with a subpar suspicion? Very safe. 

UNVOTE: George (Classic_Spaceman)

VOTE: Clark (Bob)

 

[mostlytechnic]

Well, that wasn't quite a last minute flip, nor did it hammer anyone.... still feels interesting to me.

2 minutes ago, Trekkie99 said:

With all that said and only about 2 to 2.5 hrs left in the day, I'd say George (Bob) is the most likely to be scum rn. Scum is more likely to be self conscious about a penalty vote (yes that could include me),

Wait, you reference George (Bob) but (Bob) is Clark who you voted changed your vote to. So I assume your reference to George there is a misspeak?

This also took me a minute. I read back through the day looking for where you see Clark being self conscious about penalties. Then I realized that you meant he was careful NOT to get a penalty and you think that was Naughty. Gotcha. 

[Trekkie99]

Might be getting myself killed saying this but I'm likely to survive the night. If I don't then maybe someone's trying to frame George/Clark. Or wifom and they want town to think that. At the very least pointing out all the wifom possibilities makes them null. Heeheehee I'm so evil.

19 minutes ago, mostlytechnic said:

Well, that wasn't quite a last minute flip, nor did it hammer anyone.... still feels interesting to me.

Wait, you reference George (Bob) but (Bob) is Clark who you voted changed your vote to. So I assume your reference to George there is a misspeak?

This also took me a minute. I read back through the day looking for where you see Clark being self conscious about penalties. Then I realized that you meant he was careful NOT to get a penalty and you think that was Naughty. Gotcha. 

Oof yes sorry I meant Clark (Bob). I got the vote right though.

[mostlytechnic]

1 minute ago, Trekkie99 said:

Might be getting myself killed saying this but I'm likely to survive the night. If I don't then maybe someone's trying to frame George/Clark. Or wifom and they want town to think that. At the very least pointing out all the wifom possibilities makes them null. Heeheehee I'm so evil.

Are you trying to get killed? You flat out call yourself evil :) And on top of that, what would possibly make you think you're likely to survive? You already claimed vanilla yesterday, so no reason for anyone to have contacted you privately. Also no reason for our protector (if we have one) or any other role to help you if you're just vanilla as claimed. 

[Trekkie99]

7 minutes ago, mostlytechnic said:

You flat out call yourself evil :)

I was just joking that I'm mean for ruining scum's possible wifom plans.

8 minutes ago, mostlytechnic said:

what would possibly make you think you're likely to survive?

Cause I'm a good lynch candidate for tomorrow. You wouldn't knock me off in the night when you can have town be distracted by me in the day.

[mostlytechnic]

3 minutes ago, Trekkie99 said:

Cause I'm a good lynch candidate for tomorrow. You wouldn't knock me off in the night when you can have town be distracted by me in the day.

Dang, you're just making it harder and harder not to vote for you. The only real way to think you're likely to survive is to be Naughty, and this feels like you're just prepping your defense for tomorrow. You survive because you're the Naughty one, and then tomorrow is all "see, I must be Nice because I was left alive to be a distraction"

[Trekkie99]

3 minutes ago, mostlytechnic said:

I was left alive to be a distraction

It the most logical play. Why wouldn't scum save me for later? 

Are you planning on hammering me last minute and you're setting up your reasoning/excuse ahead of time for tomorrow?

[mostlytechnic]

No, if I was going to switch my vote I would have. I'm mostly just trying to keep everyone talking more so we have stuff to consider for voting tomorrow. 

[Trekkie99]

8 minutes ago, Trekkie99 said:

Why wouldn't scum save me for later? 

Still interested in your thoughts on this.

[Classic_Spaceman]

1 hour ago, Trekkie99 said:

That's the best I got for now. I started from zero, now it's your turn. To justify your suspicion of me, you'll have to come up with a better scum read than I could. And that doesn't include your current suspicion of me. 

If you can't, then you're suspicion is hypocritical, and I get to accuse you of attempting to shut down and gain a easy lynch on whoever is first to start scum hunting.

And you don't get to say 'It's too early to be scum hunting' (strawman argument). It'll always be too early if someone doesn't start.

“My suspicion of you only started with your suspicious behaviour, Eloise. Besides that, I don’t know who’s Naughty and who’s Nice - except for me, obviously; I’m Nice - but that’s what I’ve been trying to piece together from what few clues we have.” 
“You’re essentially presenting me with the challenge to find a better suspect, or else ‘admit’ to being Naughty - I’m not taking that bait.” 
 

56 minutes ago, Trekkie99 said:

Scum is more likely to be self conscious about a penalty vote (yes that could include me), unless they're playing wifom.

“I’m not sure what you mean by this, since neither you nor Clark have a penalty vote.” 
 

40 minutes ago, Trekkie99 said:

Might be getting myself killed saying this but I'm likely to survive the night. If I don't then maybe someone's trying to frame George/Clark. 

“And how do you know that? Are you a protector, a killer, or another role?” 

42 minutes ago, Trekkie99 said:

At the very least pointing out all the wifom possibilities makes them null. Heeheehee I'm so evil.

“Is this supposed to be some kind of reverse-psychology? Regardless, it’s confusing and only seems intended to keep us spinning in circles until the end of the day!” 
 

30 minutes ago, Trekkie99 said:

Cause I'm a good lynch candidate for tomorrow. You wouldn't knock me off in the night when you can have town be distracted by me in the day.

“Distraction’s a Naughty List play - Why are you being distracting, Eloise? At best you’re a third party alignment, but we don’t have any real evidence of that right now, and you could just be trying to deflect by hinting at that.” 
 

21 minutes ago, Trekkie99 said:

It the most logical play. Why wouldn't scum save me for later? 

“Killing the most suspiciously-behaved Nice Lister would be the better strat for the Naughties, since it’d leave us with no leads and a bunch of suspicion for everyone.” 
 

[Trekkie99]

You somehow managed to misunderstand/misconstrue every point I made.

[Classic_Spaceman]

1 minute ago, Trekkie99 said:

You somehow managed to misunderstand/misconstrue every point I made.

“I did? Or Susan?” 
“Would you care to clarify your points?” 
 

[Trekkie99]

You of course of course.

Like you said, we'll just keep going around in circles.

My points are pretty simple. We'll have to see what others think I guess.

[Tariq j]

So much happening and so little time left in the day. 

George's posts feel fluffy in a way I can't quite articulate. I don't necessarily agree with all of Eloise's points against him though. 

Clarke is starting to seem more suspicious in my eyes. So far a lot of his posts have felt very non commital - he hasn't really given any strong thoughts or opinions about anyone aside from voting for Eloise.