AFOLs contribute a little under 5% of LEGO sales

[Rick]

Adults also play with LEGO bricks

When adults buy bricks, they are not always a gift for children. According to the international analyst company NPD, a little below 5% of the LEGO sales come from adults who buy bricks for themselves. It is also a well-known fact that the LEGO products have a big and loyal group of adult fans called AFOLs – Adult Fans of LEGO. Many of them have founded and joined clubs arranging large exhibits. The fans meet on the Internet exchanging experiences and showing each other pictures of their impressive LEGO structures.

I received my copy of 'The Brick' today and on page 60 the quote above can be found. I never knew AFOLs contributed so much to the sales of the company. According to TLG themselves AFOL sales represent a little under 5% of total sales. Based on 2009 sales, that's 5% of DKK 11,661 million, which is DKK 583 million. This translates into €78, $106, or A$115 million. Now of course an adult buys more(?) and more expensive sets than a kid, but even if it's five times as much, I still wouldn't have thought 'we' would constitute even 1% of TLG's customer base.

Edited March 20, 2010 by Rick

[Alex the Great]

Wow that's quite interesting, thats not counting the sets they buy for their children. Keep it up guys!

[Big Cam]

Now, I have no facts to argue this state, but I find that hard to believe. Knowing how much I've spent on Lego compared to the amount my parents spend on me as a kid, that's just hard to believe.

[k_peek_2000]

5% for AFOL is huge. That makes me hope that lego will set releasing a set a two geared specifically towards adults.

[Edmond Dantes]

I also have to believe it's more than 5%. Just last week I went into a store and purchased a few sets (for me - no kids here!). How are those sales tabulated? Or, is the 5% just based on a yearly poll? There are a lot of unanswered questions regarding that statistic.

[dr_spock]

I think when you factor in the grandparents and relatives, there are more people buying Lego for my kids than me for myself.

Also do all AFOLs buy from Lego exclusively or do they BrickLink?

[petero]

Sounds interesting, but as a data-oriented guy (20+ years in IT management), I have to wonder how NPD came up with that statistic. I've bought many sets, for myself and for kids, but nobody has ever asked me whether they're for me or the kids. So how does TLG come up with this number?

Peter

Edited March 20, 2010 by petero

[Front]

LEGO does not know how much sale goes to AFOL and how much end up being a kids toy. But they can estimate.

[Zorbas]

Thanks for sharing this Rick.

Very interesting information.

This number seems quite reasonable to me. As Front correctly wrote, it's an estimation and in no way TLG can provide definite numbers I think.

All the sets that I've bought after exiting dark ages were for me but I was always telling the toy shops owners that were for my nephew. Although that this data may be considered as misleading if taken into consideration for the above figures, when it comes to AFOL communities (such as Eurobricks for example) the truth is revealed and perhaps TLG draws feedback from there. Let's not forget the questionnaires (I forget the official name for those ) TLG uses in order to gain more accurate feedback.

From my 1 1/2 year involvement in the LEGO hobby (post dark ages), I see that TLG has established a very nice "communication" with AFOLs and this is perhaps from where the estimation is derived.

[Eilif]

I have no problem believing this to be true. While the great majority of buyers I see at the Chicago area LEGO stores are kids, I frequently meet adults buying themselves LEGO. Also, I have a couple friends who work for LEGO retail, and they can attest to the huge purchases made by AFOL's, whether it's PAB by the shipping box (not to many kids do this), reserving large sets, or just collecting general LEGO sets, AFOL's buy ALOT of LEGO.

LEGO has been quite supportive of AFOL's lately, but it's great to hear LEGO officially recognize this segment of their market and acknowldege it to the public at large. If nothing else, it means that we're likely to keep seeing more CC type buildings and other AFOL-centered sets.

[Rufus]

5% for AFOL is huge. That makes me hope that lego will set releasing a set a two geared specifically towards adults.

Lego have been marketing specifically at AFOLs for over 10 years. The entire SW UCS line is a testament to that. One of the sets that brought me out of my dark age - the 8448 Supercar - I saw advertised on a men-orientated TV channel (it's not what you think!) back in 1999.

I think the 5% figure is probably realistic, though if I'd been asked to guess I'd have thought it would have been more like 10 to 20%. Shows what I know!

[Etzel]

I think the 5% figure is probably realistic, though if I'd been asked to guess I'd have thought it would have been more like 10 to 20%. Shows what I know!

I was also thinking the percent would be higher, only 5% isn't very good I think.

We AFOLs need to take action! We must immediately stop the parents who buy LEGO for their kids and convince them to keep them they self. After all LEGO is, as we all know, an adult toy and should not be in hand of an irresponsible child!

[MarcusV3]

Eh, this doesn't really surprise me I mean just think about how many afols you know that live by you and then think about all the kids and I'm sure this site has a lot of members but compared to the numbers of kids who buy lego there's a pretty big difference of course on the other side of the argument I spend about $2000 dollars on lego each year which is a heck of a lot more than most wipper snappers! But maybe afols would be 1% but our large spending makes up for the loss of numbers. Although I would expect it to be more than 5% maybe like 10%

[David Thomsen]

What is the statistic specifically measuring, though? Units sold or profits?

It does say 'sales', which makes me think of units sold. And that's interesting.

Say 19 sets are sold to children, and one is sold to an AFOL. Which sets are the children going to get? On average, ones with low price points. What about the adults? Much higher price points.

Say 19 $19.99USD sets are sold to children, and 1 $99.99USD set is sold to an AFOL... the AFOL would contribute to almost 20% of actual profits. Which is a huge amount for a kids toy, although more realistically I'll lower it to something like 10% - I buy quite a lot of small sets as well, and some lucky kids are going to get the bigger sets.

On the other hand, I'm quite sure I'm the only person I have ever known who has a Lego collection as an adult, whereas every child I have ever known has had a bathtub full of Lego. So maybe the 5% is made up the profits of the few millionaire AFOLS who have entire stories of their building filled with Lego.

[Tyrant]

This reminds of something I have heard over and over with one of my other hobbies. I also buy Dungeons and Dragons Miniatures (purely for the skirmish game, not the RPG, that's important). At the conventions I have gone to where the question was asked, Wizards of the Coast has near universally stated that the RPG crowd accounts for 75-90% of sales (depending on who you ask, time of year, and maybe the phase of the moon). The problem is that there is no way to know that. I've spent thousands on those figures and have never once been asked why I buy them. My local shop has never asked why I buy them. There wasn't ever a poll that I took part in that asked that question. So near as I could tell, the number was entirely fabricated. Later events that altered the distribution method to favor the RPG crowd actually saw a decline in sales. That, and other events, were all the proof I needed that the number they threw out was pulled out of thin air. Since this stat was used to justify certain actions, some of the more outspoken people at the conventions let it be clearly known they thought it was pulled from someplace else entirely.

So, as with that, I see no easy way to come up with that statistic. It also isn't clear if they mean 5% of customers are AFOL's, or if 5% of sets purchased are purchased by AFOL's, or if 5% of overall revenue is from AFOL sales. Those all mean different things and I find the first and second easier to believe than the third. I know this is purely anecdotal, but when I was a kid (the 80s, for the sake of clarity) I would estimate based on my memory of what I got that I got $300-400 worth of LEGO in good years. I've already spent that much this year and the sets I really want (Castle, Prince of Persia) haven't even been released yet. Yes, I am aware that there are more kids getting LEGO than adults. I have absolutely no doubt about that. I also know that there are AFOL's who's spending eclipses my own by a considerable margin. I would imagine, in total dollars, that AFOL's are closer to 10-20%.

Having said all that, it is nice to at least be aknowledged. I just wish it would translate into a few more AFOL oriented Castle sets.

[Rick]

Now, I have no facts to argue this state, but I find that hard to believe. Knowing how much I've spent on Lego compared to the amount my parents spend on me as a kid, that's just hard to believe.

So you think it would be more? Sure you buy loads more, but then again, not every kid turns out to be an AFOL.

I have no problem believing this to be true. While the great majority of buyers I see at the Chicago area LEGO stores are kids, I frequently meet adults buying themselves LEGO. Also, I have a couple friends who work for LEGO retail, and they can attest to the huge purchases made by AFOL's, whether it's PAB by the shipping box (not to many kids do this), reserving large sets, or just collecting general LEGO sets, AFOL's buy ALOT of LEGO.

LEGO has been quite supportive of AFOL's lately, but it's great to hear LEGO officially recognize this segment of their market and acknowldege it to the public at large. If nothing else, it means that we're likely to keep seeing more CC type buildings and other AFOL-centered sets.

I don't personally know any AFOLs in my direct surroundings, so I guess the perceived 'reasonableness' of the number also depends on your perception of the size of the AFOL community in your area. From discussions here on EB ("Lego is for kids. Don't even think TLG will listen to us") I always inferred the proportion of sales would be much lower. But the 'acknowledgment' by TLG makes it likely that something like the Exclusives line is considered worth continuing.

What is the statistic specifically measuring, though? Units sold or profits?

It does say 'sales', which makes me think of units sold. And that's interesting.

'Sales' usually refers to sales revenues (so €, $, or DKK amounts). My guess (see also my first post) is that 'we' constitute 1% or even less of TLG's customer base, but because of our (well, some of us at least) spending habits contribute much more to sales revenue. I also think costs made for AFOLs are much lower than for kids. There isn't much advertisement needed and exclusives are sold mostly through S@H with bigger margins/lower costs than normal retail channels. Thus, bottom line is that we spent more, cost less, and bring in quite some profits for TLG. I think that's recognized in the past years, because we see a lot of sets specifically tailored to AFOLs and some choices made for the regular lines seem to have AFOLs in mind: I'm thinking the short-lived revival of classic pirates, the new human-vs-human castle sets, and more 'civilian' City sets.

[avoidz]

Only 5%? That figure seems awfully low...

[drdavewatford]

This discussion also appeared on Brickset a few days ago.

For those who'd like to see more opinions on the topic, click the link below :

Brickset 5% AFOL discussion

My take is that 5% is pretty low, and we're lucky that TLC takes so much notice of us !

Dr. D.

[Rick]

This discussion also appeared on Brickset a few days ago.

Didn't notice that, or I would have acknowledged it at least.

My take is that 5% is pretty low, and we're lucky that TLC takes so much notice of us !

I think any company with a group of customers that brings in 5% of sales is wise to seriously consider them. Furthermore, as I pointed out before, AFOLs are 'cheap' customers. They advertise the products among themselves and they buy right out of the factory, thus saving the margin that the retailer would normally get. I think we all agree that TLG in the last few years has really tried their best at tailoring certain products - both in exclusives and the regular lines, LUGbulk, expanded PaB - to an AFOL audience.

[drdavewatford]

I think any company with a group of customers that brings in 5% of sales is wise to seriously consider them.

Agreed, but the way some AFOLs talk you'd think that we were the majority ! These figures are hopefully a useful reality check for some.

Dr. D.

[WhiteFang]

I am rather surprised, as in how TLG determine the sales figures by allocating it into their target markets.

[davee123]

Remember also that not everyone that buys LEGO as an adult is an AFOL. With products like the UCS Star Wars sets, LEGO Architecture, and other "Model Team" quality sets, some adults buy LEGO as one-off purchases because they're cool. Not because they're as hopelessly addicted to LEGO as we AFOLs are. Also, you've got other hobbyists like Star Wars geeks who will just buy ANYTHING Star Wars, or anything Batman, or anything Indiana Jones, etc.

It's a self-reinforcing cycle to some extent. In 2000 or so, when LEGO really started catering to adult fans (you could make a case for earlier), it also started creating a market for other adults who weren't LEGO fans, and broadening the market share that's taken by adults versus kids. So what's about 5% now probably was NOT 5% back in 1995-- it's probably been a growing percentage, which is likely still on the rise!

DaveE

[Ratshot]

I can't get over the fact that we only contribute 5% to sales, I remember reading somewhere that it was 10% but I guess they were wrong.

[wooootles]

Agreed, but the way some AFOLs talk you'd think that we were the majority ! These figures are hopefully a useful reality check for some.

Yeah, I sometimes hate the sense of entitlements of some AFOLs, especially in town sets

Let me put my spin on the topic---it's 5% of probably a very big sales number, so it's still significant

Also, most AFOL do MOC anyway, do they count PaB sales and Bricklink transactions?

Edited March 21, 2010 by wooootles

[SlyOwl]

I heard 25% somewhere before...

I guess 5% is still a huge figure - but easy to understand given eg. army builders, who buy ~50 of impulse sets/small sets like Cannon Battle and Crossbow attack.

£60million? That's a huge amount. If an AFOL spends £1000 per year on Lego (which is a lot!), that still equates to 60000 AFOLs, so the actual number is going to be even more!