LEGO Collectable Minifigures Series 3 discussion

[fred67]

Wow, did I call this or what. So, what happens when I walk into a store and through random chance get every desirable figure in the case? How is the end result of that any different than if I had cherry picked them?

Because one of those cases is about a million times more likely to happen, if even possible, than the other. In other words, when other people walk in and truly buy them randomly, it's a million times more likely they will get a random assortment of all of them instead of a random assortment of the dregs that are left. It makes a huge difference.

Also, only being able to buy them through S@H puts us right back into supe rarity status where people who have enough money to throw at the problem will still get what they want while everyone else is left flipping in the wind.

That doesn't make any sense at all. If you can afford to buy 10 random figures or 10,000 random figures... they're still random. The rich guy might end up with 300 Spartans, but he's going to have a lot of crap that nobody wants and is hard to sell. In other words, his money got him what he wanted, but at a premium. If people know what they are buying and can cherry pick, the un-randomize the system for everybody else.

I'm not saying I don't like being able to know what we're buying, or buying complete sets (although I like that less, because while I want a complete set or two, there will be ones that I want more of for MOCs).

On the other hand, I agree what Green Brick Giant was arguing for makes little sense, either. If anything, it's halfway... the boxes should have 64 figures and have 4 complete sets(*), but the figures impossible to differentiate.

(*) That's just one idea... but if they aren't going to have an even multiple of sets, they should be fixed... if they put 60 in a box, for example, they should have three complete sets and 12 different figures, which might vary from box to box. Four boxes off the production line would have 240 figures, and would have 15 complete sets. That would make no figures any more common or rare than the others, overall. The reason is because you don't want one locality, or one store, to not get any of the good figures out of randomness.... it should only be random to a point.

EDIT: BTW (don't want to make a new post), has anyone seen these on the east coast yet?

Edited November 20, 2010 by fred67

[Tyrant]

Because one of those cases is about a million times more likely to happen, if even possible, than the other. In other words, when other people walk in and truly buy them randomly, it's a million times more likely they will get a random assortment of all of them instead of a random assortment of the dregs that are left. It makes a huge difference.

What is more or less likely in this case doesn't matter, nor can it br proven one way or the other. I have, on more than one occasion, cleared out every decent booster in a case of miniature boosters before without even trying. Likewise, not every case gets attacked by cherry pickers. it quite likely balances out. More to the point, both deny future customers their shot at the hypothetical contents. If I buy any, anyone who comes after me will not get those figures and has no chance to get them. Under one model I buy only what I am after and leave everything else for anyone else who comes along. Under the other I just keep buying until I either get what I am after or I run out of money (the former is far more likely to happen before the latter). Anything that adds randomness will hurt the small spender while mildly inconveniencing the big spender, who will then go on to do things that will also negatively impact the small spender. I've played enough "collectible" games and watched this model play out again and again to know what I am talking about.

That doesn't make any sense at all. If you can afford to buy 10 random figures or 10,000 random figures... they're still random. The rich guy might end up with 300 Spartans, but he's going to have a lot of crap that nobody wants and is hard to sell. In other words, his money got him what he wanted, but at a premium. If people know what they are buying and can cherry pick, the un-randomize the system for everybody else.

Allow me to explain. First, they are produced in a limited number. If this is not the case then any claim of "collectible" is bogus, so we will assume that TLG isn't lying to us in this case. That means that there are only so many to go around. Now, if there is only one vendor and they are random, people with enough money and a desire to aquire these could keep buying them until they have what they want. This directly impacts everyone else because there are now fewer to go around. As a consequence of these two forces, the odds of any one figure being worth less than it's retail price is very slim. There will also be no "sealed" market for these, as you don't know for certain what is in each package so there will be no penalty for opening them when it comes to reselling them. So, virtually any purchase can be flipped to at least recover cost. This will compound the problem as those who can (and who choose to do so) will continue to buy with reckless abandon until the supply is deplted. Add to this the frustrated masses who are now faced with the choice of spending god only knows how much money trying to get that one figure or buying it online (which helps fuel the bigger buyers). Around this time, the speculator shows up as well. They know a good deal when they see it. Single vendor, limited supply, random figures. A match made in heaven. They start chewing into the supply now too. Once people see how easily they can sell extras, the cycle accelerates as more and more people spend more and more money to get these just to sell them. How long do do you think those figures will last? How many will actually wind up in the hands of any kids? Add it up and it equals most people getting screwed out of even having a chance to buy them and likely having to spend even more to buy them from resellers. Any attempt at limiting things like this only plays into the hands of resellers. The harder it is to get something, the more it is worth to those who can't get it directly. Making them harder to get (single vendor) while they are still limited only helps people looking to profit off of them.

Will this absolutely happen? that's impossible to predict. I consider it likely, given a few assumptions. If there are numerous figures that people simply don't want (the diver, for instance), this might fall apart. On the other hand, it makes figures like the Spartan that much more valuable because fewer people will be willing to risk getting "bad" figures. This may elevate the value of all of the figures (fewer buyers equals fewer available for resale to those who only want specific figures, which equals higher prices), which starts the whole cycle again. If these aren't actually limited, then that doesn't apply. Of course if they aren't limited then no one should be complaining because there is enough to go around.

On the other hand, I agree what Green Brick Giant was arguing for makes little sense, either. If anything, it's halfway... the boxes should have 64 figures and have 4 complete sets(*), but the figures impossible to differentiate.

This could work, if they produce more of them. It still doesn't eliminate the possibility of people just buying out the cases, but it does more to ensure that you have at least some chance of getting the figures you are looking for. It also ensures no figure is any more rare than any other. That kind of helps. I honestly don't think it takes a rocket scientist to figure out which figures will be wanted in large numbers and which won't. A figure like the Spartan should never be in fewer numbers than any other figure in the case (if the distribution is unequal).

[fred67]

What is more or less likely in this case doesn't matter, nor can it br proven one way or the other.

It matters a great deal. If you want to pretend not to see it, that's your prerogative, but the chance of something like that randomly happening over the course of millions of figures sold versus thousands of people cherry picking makes a gigantic difference. Yes, it's possible that you get all the Spartans... from what I understand, the figures were often clumped together, but when you have thousands of people cherry picking Spartans it's a very different story for when the next people walk in and buy randomly. You can point out fringe cases, rare exceptions... but that's all they are, a statistically insignificant anomaly overall, statistically.

Allow me to explain. First, they are produced in a limited number. ...

Your whole premise is predicated on the belief that someone with more money has unequally better access... when TLG limits sales to "X" number at a given time, that's patently false. Even with fewer Series 2 than Series 3 (supposedly), S@H didn't run out until when? Yesterday? All of September, October, and 2/3 of November... during that whole time there was equal access to all.

Edit: and I might point out that, even though it was less than 3 months, the run was there for everyone to buy... it's not different than when they run out of Green Grocer; when it's gone it's gone, it's just that with the minifigures it happened a lot faster.

Edited November 21, 2010 by fred67

[igor]

Hey there. I live in rural Kentucky. Anyone know where I can pick up any of these. S@H seems to be sold out constantly.

Thanks.

[Tyrant]

It matters a great deal. If you want to pretend not to see it, that's your prerogative, but the chance of something like that randomly happening over the course of millions of figures sold versus thousands of people cherry picking makes a gigantic difference. Yes, it's possible that you get all the Spartans... from what I understand, the figures were often clumped together, but when you have thousands of people cherry picking Spartans it's a very different story for when the next people walk in and buy randomly. You can point out fringe cases, rare exceptions... but that's all they are, a statistically insignificant anomaly overall, statistically.

You're missing the point, by a mile. If I buy any of them, someone else can't buy whichever once I just bought. The more I buy, the fewer other people can buy. Now, I can either cherry pick and limit the number of figures I remove from the pool, or I can buy them randomly and do a lot more damage. Multiply that out. It does not matter at all who bought them or using what method. Either way, hypothetical little Timmy doesn't get them if someone else already bought them. That's why the bleeding heart argument fails, hard. If the store is sold out, how it got that way doesn't matter. The next person in line gets nothing either way.

Also, speaking of random numbers, thousands of people cherry picking? Really? I see about 2000 listed on Bricklink right now with another 779 already sold. I personally have 8. I got one from my lone order from S@H and I cherry picked the rest. Assuming other people have more luck than I do it isn't unreasonable to assume the average cherry picker gets 10. That's in the ballpark of 300 people, 600 if we assume they only got 5. Thousands? Unlikely.

Your whole premise is predicated on the belief that someone with more money has unequally better access... when TLG limits sales to "X" number at a given time, that's patently false.

Who's pretending not to see things again? Do you really believe that? In the span of 6 days I ordered 15 of the series 1 figures, and the limit was 5. That was having them all sent to my house. If I so chose, I could have ordered more in the same time frame. A lot more. Easily. You can accomplish a lot with time and money. I'll explain it if you still don't know how.

Even with fewer Series 2 than Series 3 (supposedly), S@H didn't run out until when? Yesterday? All of September, October, and 2/3 of November... during that whole time there was equal access to all.

What does series 3 have to do with anything? Try series 1. How long did that last again? A little over 2 weeks? That was with greater restriction, and they sold out faster. It's almost like them being harder to get made people willing to buy more of them. You know what else was going on there? Fewer stores were selling them as well. There was a greater level of uncertainty, that drove buying. As for series 2, let's get some perspective. How long do most sets last? 1.5-2 years. How long did these last? At best (fudging the dates by 2 weeks), .25 years. Any way you cut it, a considerable difference.

You also need to take into account other factors. Series 1 had more figures people wanted in numbers (zombie, robot, cheerleader, maybe the caveman, and maybe robin hood). Series 2 has Spartans and.....? Series 1 was released a little at a time across a small number of venues, a few of which placed limits on them (thus giving the appearance of being harder to amass and driving up the desire to buy more and more). Series 2 had a much higher limit on S@H and was available at several places all at once. The appearance of rarity wasn't there. Coupled with fewer desirable figures (to want numerous copies of) and it should be easy to see why series 1 sold out faster. Series 3 is heading down the same road, and there will be even more of them (and that has been made common knowledge). Series 1 had the "new, shiny" appeal along with a level of uncertainty. By the time series 3 rolls around (now, as I understand it) the shine will be wearing off more and more and "the system" will be better defined thus eliminating some of the uncertainty. Now, if you start messing with certain aspects, you throw us all back to series 1. Make them harder to get, uncertainty city. Make the only place you can buy them have a limit, imaginary rarity enters the equation. The system as it is now works, for most of the people.

Edit: and I might point out that, even though it was less than 3 months, the run was there for everyone to buy... it's not different than when they run out of Green Grocer; when it's gone it's gone, it's just that with the minifigures it happened a lot faster.

No, it's really not the same. I can't believe I have to explain this. One of those two can have more copies made if the first run sells out, the other can't (being "limited" and all). If they want to make more of a set like Green Grocer, they will. If they make more of the collectible figures, they will kill their sales. Non limited sets can, and are, produced in greater numbers beyond their initial run. They aren't doing that with these figures. That just might be why it happened a lot faster, and why that's a terrible comparison. You have entirely different considerations driving the sales of those two items. Unless they horribly over produce one of the figure series, they won't ever last as long as a set like Green Grocer.

So, I'm looking around on Bricklink. What is everyone complaining about? The cheapest I see the Spartans, complete with all of their stuff is $6.50 and the seller has 5. Once we get up to the $8-9 range there are a few sellers who have a number of them. Now, if you guys only want 1, it would be better to just buy it. A number of retailers sell these for $3 or 4 apeice. Less than twice that for the specific figure I want? Why is this a problem again? Unless what you want is to be able to buy them for retail, which the odds of doing so through dumb luck are slim (as you said). So, is it that other people have beat you to the punch? Do you really want more than 1? Or do you just expect to luck into it? If you only want 1 (remember if you get more than that you are depriving people, or something), and aren't going to use your natural talents to get one at retail, then that's a reasonable price and the complaints are meaningless.

Hey there. I live in rural Kentucky. Anyone know where I can pick up any of these. S@H seems to be sold out constantly.

Thanks.

Where abouts in Kentucky do you live? Are you at all close to Evansville, IN? If not, is there a Borders or TRU anywhere near you? If there is give them a call (though they will be a little higher). If there is a Meijer near you they seem to have them, but they won't be in the toy section (in all likelyhood). They will be with the Christmas stuff with other small, stocking stuffer type toys.

[Stiel]

You're missing the point, by a mile. If I buy any of them, someone else can't buy whichever once I just bought. The more I buy, the fewer other people can buy. Now, I can either cherry pick and limit the number of figures I remove from the pool, or I can buy them randomly and do a lot more damage.

If your response to identical bags would be to just keep on buying random bags until you get your, say, 300 Spartans, then yes, you would be doing more 'damage' than if you just bought the 300 bags containing the Spartans. However, I assume that most cherry pickers wouldn't do this. And as long as there remains at least one random bag in a case, little Timmy has a positive chance to get any minifigure from that bag, as opposed to cases after being cherry-picked.

[Mr Meleca]

any sign of them in London?

[Notorious Guf]

This thread seems to be getting out of control, I vote we stop arguing about how the series should be packed or distributed or how people should buy them and start talking about who's seen them, what they are like, what quantities of each figure are in the box etc.

[SilentMode]

According to a post on BrickLink:

2 x Fisherman

3 x Indian Chief

3 x Snowboarder

3 x Space Villain

3 x Elf

3 x Hula Dancer

3 x Rapper

4 x Tennis Player

4 x Bush Pilot

4 x Samurai

4 x Gorilla Suit

4 x Baseball Player

5 x Race Car Driver

5 x Sumo Wrestler

5 x Mummy

5 x Space Alien

These are reflected in the current prices for individual (identified) figures on BrickLink: around GBP 2.73 for gorilla suits, all the way up to GBP 4.38 for fishermen.

Edited November 21, 2010 by SilentMode

[Soulgem]

My preferred local toy store thought they would get them on their next delivery, in the end of next week. Not sure this goes for the rest of Europe, but I hope we all get them soon.

[KristofBD]

Having seen the pictures, I must say the figs have grown even more on me.

Great to see that back printing appears in the collectable series (I especially like the gorilla suit zipper! ). The samurai torso and the Hula girls hair also look far better than expected. The Elf bow is also a nice surprise.

All in all, it seems that my impression based on the preliminary pics seriously underestimated the coolness of the actual figs. Great job TLG

[Ravenclaw2010]

This and more shots here : http://www.flickr.com/photos/jake_snicket/

he looks so cool! And Is that first hair printing?!

Thanks for these great pics. They look so amazing. I can't wait till they come out in the UK!

[vexorian]

Doh. Trans purple being so rare, I guess I'll have to get more and more Aliens. You can have all the elves you want, I am keeping the blacktron and aliens.

Is the tennis player the most badass female minifig head in history? Because it is clearly the most badass head overall in all three series.

Edited November 21, 2010 by vexorian

[The Green Brick Giant]

If the shoe fits then yep I'm calling you a megablocker.

I understand wanting a few, 2-3 of each, and if there are several boxes then go for it, but people buy every box, every lets say elf or fisherman out of the boxes and that's wrong.

How is that different than buying 300 random minifigures and getting 10 elves, the difference is minor, I still think that's a megablocking horrible thing to do. These things were a pain to fine in stores because of megablocks like that. So once again I think the only way to fix the problem is to only sell them only online, because it's clear nothing else will work. Then you can buy 300 (more so because series 2 just ran out last week) and get whatever the hell you get. Running into stores spending thousands of dollars buying EVERY box they have just to see them online for 10 times as much is wrong, it's a childrens' toy. So yeah to the people who do that I think that's ducked up, and that you are an megablocks for doing that. You don't like that then you can ignore me, because I will definitively be ignoring any excuses you use for being a megablocker.

[Derek]

So yeah to the people who do that I think that's ducked up, and that you are an megablocks for doing that.

Nice language... Even though kids aren't technically supposed to be on here, they are.

But I understand both sides of the argument over the figures. Yeah, I think it is annoying that some people are buying them all up, but you are going to get that when an elusive product is released. You all have to admit that if you saw them in the stores months before the expected release that you would buy copious amounts.

But I also think that some should be left for the kids. I think most kids would rather sets to figures, but I think they like the figures too. I can only imagine what insane percentage of sales of the figures are from AFOLs.

I feel like Lego knew what they were doing when they released these and the kids aren't the sole target by any means.

-Derek

[vexorian]

The best answer against people that buy whole boxes is to stop making the bags random.

[Guardianmonkey]

Could the guy with the white mustache be an older Johnny Thunder?

[LuxorV]

If the shoe fits then yep I'm calling you a megablocker.

I understand wanting a few, 2-3 of each, and if there are several boxes then go for it, but people buy every box, every lets say elf or fisherman out of the boxes and that's wrong.

How is that different than buying 300 random minifigures and getting 10 elves, the difference is minor, I still think that's a megablocking horrible thing to do. These things were a pain to fine in stores because of megablocks like that. So once again I think the only way to fix the problem is to only sell them only online, because it's clear nothing else will work. Then you can buy 300 (more so because series 2 just ran out last week) and get whatever the hell you get. Running into stores spending thousands of dollars buying EVERY box they have just to see them online for 10 times as much is wrong, it's a childrens' toy. So yeah to the people who do that I think that's ducked up, and that you are an megablocks for doing that. You don't like that then you can ignore me, because I will definitively be ignoring any excuses you use for being a megablocker.

I'm sure your rude language won't solve the probelm.

Please control yourself in the future. Thank you.

[Masked Builder]

Could the guy with the white mustache be an older Johnny Thunder?

I don't think so but I suppose it's possible.

[LuxorV]

Could the guy with the white mustache be an older Johnny Thunder?

Remember the LEGO motto: 'You control the action!'. That guy can be an aged Johnny Thunder for you if you so wish

[Stiel]

Remember the LEGO motto: 'You control the action!'. That guy can be an aged Johnny Thunder for you if you so wish

Or his father! Henry Thunder Sr., anyone?

[buddy]

Or his father! Henry Thunder Sr., anyone?

Or maybe his grandfather, Johnny Thunder Sr!

~buddy~

[Peppermint_M]

All I know is that I will be getting a pilot solely for his jacket. Peppermint Leather Jackets. My sig fig needs a new, more action theme look.

[Tyrant]

If your response to identical bags would be to just keep on buying random bags until you get your, say, 300 Spartans, then yes, you would be doing more 'damage' than if you just bought the 300 bags containing the Spartans. However, I assume that most cherry pickers wouldn't do this. And as long as there remains at least one random bag in a case, little Timmy has a positive chance to get any minifigure from that bag, as opposed to cases after being cherry-picked.

No, a cherry picker wouldn't just buy them randomly. They would buy the ones they knew, or reasonably believed, contained the exact figures they want. That's cherry picking. I'm talking about if we can't tell what is in the packages where some people will just keep buying them until they get what they want, and others will buy them en masse to sell the desirable ones to those who don't want to just keep buying random packages. Part of the solution is to make more of them, thus making them less rare overall and combating the drive to resell them. Another part is to make them more widely available. Another part is to give all of the figures even distribution, or to make the ones that will obviously be desirable in numbers be the ones with higher production runs (though not at the cost of making one of the others super ultra rare, that will only restart the problem). Do those three things and you can come close to killing the secondary market, which will help increase availability to everyone else (along with the other measures). To further that goal, make them as close to impossible to cherry pick as you can, but only if you do the other steps as well otherwise you have increased the appearance of rarity and that is what you want to avoid. The downside of these plans is that it will eliminate a noticeable chunk of sales (speculators, resellers, those who just keep buying them until they get the ones they want because they can sell the unwanted ones), which will negatively impact the series (which is why they won't do most of those things unless they know they have a very large customer base buying these). It is a very difficult balance to find if you are trying to please everyone. Restricting them will only make matters worse, which is the point I have been trying to explain.

As for the figures, I think they look great. I can live with the Fisherman being short packed. I would like to get a couple of most them. I will try to get a number of elves though, and more than a couple of mummies. Maybe a few of the samurai once I get a better look at them.

[Lego_Hero]

I think its silly that there are people on here wasting long minutes of typing going back and forth over the good and bad of random bagging and the many ways around it. My personal opinion (since we're all sharing), at least from an American viewpoint skewed by capitalist upbringing, is that once those puppies hit the shelves all bets are off. Buy what you want with all the strategies at your disposal. I buy one of each from each series unless its something I really like or there's an accident. I bought four Spartans because I could. I did give a Spartan to one of my students, but I'm keeping the rest, not selling them.

When the first series came out, I was really bugged by people who bought whole boxes because I barely got a whole set before they disappeared. But even then, I knew they were't buying boxes out from under me. I could have gone online if I had wanted to. With series two being so much more available (my TRU has parts of two boxes just sitting there), I couldn't care less who buys what.

Now about Series 3: The closer to release these guys come, the more I'm wanting them. I wasn't too impressed with them overall at first, but now I think this series is just as solid as the first two. I'm really looking forward to the gorilla and the elf.