3D Printing: great opportunity or serious threat to Lego?

[Legoist]

This is about something that most likely won't happen until at least 10-20 years from now, but eventually it will.

In case you don't know, 3D Printing is basically CAM (Computer-Aided-Manufacturing) technology that allows "fast" creation of objects of various material (ABS plastic being one of them) in a fully-programmable machine. The idea is that of having something similar to a regular printer, except that instead of printing documents of paper, a 3D Printer "prints" (i.e. sculpts) solid objects of a chosen material.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3d_printing

Before someone gets too excited, let's check today prices of 3D Printers and printing services from these articles:

http://www.catiacommunity.com/feature_full_guest.php?read=1&cpfeatureid=53255&page=2

http://www.postgazette.com/pg/06215/710849-96.stm

Clearly, today these are not home-budget machines... But as the same articles point out, their price will eventually decrease until they might become affordable by the average family. In some other article that I cannot find anymore, there was a comparison with laser printer prices, which went down from prices similar to today's 3D Printers to less than 1000$ in 15-20 years, so perhaps this could be a reasonable expectation for 3D Printing too.

So if we think about AFOLs being able to buy a 3D Printer in the future, and use it to craft Lego parts, what consequences would it have on the hobby, if the practice became widespread enough?

THE GOOD?

- We would be able to make our own customized parts. Pieces in shapes that has never been made before, tailored to our needs and favourite themes. No more begging TLG to make a piece (or a whole historical/licensed/discontinued theme) we really want, but has not enough use worldwide to justify mass production. No more waiting for small companies to fill the gap and make certain train wheels or minifig accessories just as we want them.

- We would be able to make existing pieces in a colour choice that has never done before, just for the fun of it. Think brown trees for an autumn landscape, or dark green baseplates.

- We would be able to make many copies of regular pieces that are otherwise rare and take a long time and lots of money to buy on the secondary market (suddenly you can easily build tens of Diesel Shunters or make a whole city with dark blue roofs). This would be a delight for many MOCers, particularly those who make creations for expositions.

THE BAD?

- TLG might face more challenges to remain competitive, although it's clearly impossible for home 3D Printing to be ever cheaper than mass production, but still some financial damage might happen.

- Smaller nice companies like Big Ben Bricks and Brickforge could have more serious trouble, since their total production is small and have to charge more for their custom parts.

- The secondary market could become flooded by counterfeited rare Lego bricks, making it a nightmare for collectors to distinguish them from the genuine.

- Many home-made pieces of inferior quality or with colours not matching the official ones will end up mixed with official bricks in second-hand Lego, just like clone brand bricks today, making 2nd-hand purchases more risky, particularly when buying complete sets of the past, in case many sellers start "completing" their incomplete sets with forged bricks.

So what's your gut feeling? Is it going to be a more good or bad thing? (Sorry, not enough posts yet to create a poll here... )

[Siegfried]

It's a good thing for now; TLG use these right now for prototyping. In the long term I'm not sure if they'll be a threat; they generally aren't as strong as traditional LEGO.

[Legoist]

In the long term I'm not sure if they'll be a threat; they generally aren't as strong as traditional LEGO.

Yep, but that's one reason why they may become a threat.

[fred67]

In the same way that it's cheaper AND generally much better (pay attention to their processing) to have your digital pictures printed by a photography shop, something like these 3D printers will have a LONG way to go to compete professionally with TLG or places like BrickArms or BrickForge.

First of all, the technology has been available for quite some time already (more than a decade, probably closer to two) and the prices simply haven't come down that much. Secondly, the products suffer from having a finite resolution, unlike a hand crafted mold. Secondly, the plastics involved are not as high a quality as the plastic TLG and BrickForge and BrickArms use. None of the techniques used can use such plastic.

Lastly, like traditional photograph printing, it will NEVER be cheaper to use one of these devices than it is to use injection molding, and it won't be as high a quality... they are great for prototyping... they are great for one off, low use items (so when they do become affordable, creating something unique for your MOC would be awesome, assuming it's not a... let's say, "load bearing" element). These will not replace anything for mass production.

You know what it will be great for? I did the Ruby MOD for the Emerald Night. I wish I could do a "Sapphire" MOD for it, but the curves are not available in blue. If I had one of these, I could make my own. But if someone thinks they're going to somehow make a million tan tiles for the MOC and it'll save them money over buying them on BL, they're are mistaken.... it simply won't happen.

[blueandwhite]

I think the larger threat may be to the secondary market which could easily become flooded with knockoff parts that look exactly like LEGO (down to the branding on the stud). I don't really see this technology doing a lot of damage to LEGO themselves.

The way it's described, 3D printing sounds like a technology that has mostly commercial applications. Even if the price of such technology became considerably more affordable, I just don't see it becoming a home product. Acquiring the necessary materials in the appropriate colours doesn't seem like something the average consumer is ever going to do. Conversely, such a technology is probably perfect for smaller custom parts manufacturers looking for a solution for molding parts. It also seems like something folks making knockoff bricks would love to have.

[Vindicare]

For me personally, it would be a hinderance and annoyance. Like thread maker said, it would make me second guess buying something off ebay. I don't think I'd buy any old sets anymore, which would stink. I would stick to S@H and TRU.

I don't think they'd be a threat to Lego, although depending on the cost of materials and how complicated the machine is to the average person.

If, say the cost of materials to make something was the same cost to get the set(s) with similar pieces, I'd imagine most people would lean towards just buying the set.

[escortmad79]

For £52000 for a 3D printer I don't think TLG have anything to worry about just yet! Don't think many members of the public can afford them & doubt they'd use it to make counterfeit Lego bricks.

Although I could use the one at my college to make myself a load of baseplates & roadplates

[Peppermint_M]

Most poeple are priced out of it, it will certainly take a decade for it to be widespread once it is, well... It will revolutionise the customisation forum. Sharing custom parts files with each other just like decals. I can't see it becoming a competitor to Lego, just a boon to fans.

Who knows, if it all becomes as good as it could possibly be, Lego could have PaB download store online, with certain bricks to buy and "print".

[Legoist]

Ouch... I just realized the title may be misleading. It should have been "great opportunity or serious threat to the Lego hobby". I meant it in general, I didn't mean specifically an opportunity or a threat for the Lego company(TLG).

Basically I meant to ask what does this possibility make you feel, do you think it will bring more goodness to your hobby or more annoyance?

Edited September 12, 2010 by Legoist

[Jan]

Same as for digital printing, I can imagine that pretty soon this 3D printing will be widly available as a service you can send your data to.

Of course this kind of service is allready available, but will become cheaper and better over time, same as photoprinting is now.

So of course there could be a possibility that this will be available for not to much money for home users, but I think that for occasional use an external printing service will be much cheaper.

Of course, if this 3d printing results in products as good as the original LEGO, possibly TLG will also step over to this proces as well. No molds are needed, no special machines for different kind of parts etc..

So one way or the other, this will become reality. And I think as allready mentioned, the hardest part for TLG will be mainly not to get confused with homemade 'inferior' products.

Only way to do so is to exel in quality and design.

thats my opinion

Jan

[Captain M]

My dad did some work for a 3D printing company a while back, and him and I got to see a tour of the plant. It would take hours, if not days to print a Lego Brick.

Edited September 12, 2010 by Captain M

[escortmad79]

My dad did some work for a 3D printing company a while back, and him and I got to see a tour of the plant. It would take hours, if not days to print a Lego Brick.

It won't take days, it'll take a matter of minutes to produce a 2x4 Lego brick.

[Vindicare]

For £52000 for a 3D printer I don't think TLG have anything to worry about just yet! Don't think many members of the public can afford them & doubt they'd use it to make counterfeit Lego bricks.

Although I could use the one at my college to make myself a load of baseplates & roadplates

That's what I would do right there! All the straight road plates I would ever need!

[Legoist]

For £52000 for a 3D printer I don't think TLG have anything to worry about just yet!

Those articles linked in the 1st post talk about ~15-20.000$ as current starting prices. The next article mentions a company trying to lower the price below 10k, and another company targetting 5k (and its website mentions a model already available for <10k). And this is only NOW, ten years after it was impossible to see any 3D Printer below 50k. It is not unreasonable to make optimistic expectations...

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/oct2008/tc2008103_077223.htm

My dad did some work for a 3D printing company a while back, and him and I got to see a tour of the plant. It would take hours, if not days to print a Lego Brick.

There's a video on youtube showing the 3D Printing of some cup-shaped object about 3 inches tall. It takes ~10 minutes or something like that.

I rather think that on the long term (10-20 years from now) the price and the time will become non-issues. The only remaining issue might be quality, and more precisely resolution. Lego bricks have very short tolerances, so it's possible that 3D Printers manufacturers simply won't design printers with such a great precision because only very few customers may actually need that.

Edited September 13, 2010 by Legoist

[escortmad79]

Those articles linked in the 1st post talk about ~15-20.000$ as current starting prices. The next article mentions a company trying to lower the price below 10k, and another company targetting 5k (and its website mentions a model already available for <10k). And this is only NOW, ten years after it was impossible to see any 3D Printer below 50k. It is not unreasonable to make optimistic expectations...

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/oct2008/tc2008103_077223.htm

There's a video on youtube showing the 3D Printing of some cup-shaped object about 3 inches tall. It takes ~10 minutes or something like that.

I rather think that on the long term (10-20 years from now) the price and the time will become non-issues. The only remaining issue might be quality, and more precisely resolution. Lego bricks have very short tolerances, so it's possible that 3D Printers manufacturers simply won't design printers with such a great precision because only very few customers may actually need that.

This is what we have in college: http://www.thinglab.co.uk/printing_product.php?URL_=product_rapid_zcorp_zprinter_650&SubCatID_=66

We have one of the "Lego" based models shown on the website in the classroom but the bricks are oversized.

The printer makes 3D renders using powder/resin so isn't as strong as ABS. Thin printing makes items brittle. It is possible to manufacture small thin items but they won't have any strength in them.

Not sure you can make ABS models with it, it's just resin/powder to give an idea of what a product will look like

[Solscud007]

I have dabbled a bit in 3D prototyping. My friend and I developed after market upgrade parts for Transformer toys. We even went thru mass production. A small 1200 unit run of our upgrade parts.

Anyway there are many different types of 3D printing processes.

I have personal experience with SLA (Stereo Lithography). This is a tank of liquid resin. Inside is a movable platform that lowers into the tank. A laser heats the surface of the liquid resin and instantly cures that spot to solidify the resin. Like a printer prints in lines, most Rapid Prototyping "prints" in layers/planes. SLA lowers the tank as it builds each layer.

There is a process called FDM which uses an ABS filament. The ejector head heats the thin filament to a degree above melting point and squirts out the liquefied plastic. It then cools and re-solidifies. This process is great because it is actual ABS plastics. However there is a caveat, resolution is not so great. you can easily see the build lines, the steps between layers.

There are other types like metal printing that uses powders and then an inkjet head squirts a liquid binder to hold the powders together. Then heated sintering allows brass to wick into the crevices of the powder and become a solid piece of metal.

I dont think we have much to fear from counterfeits from Rapid Prototyping. It is as if you are concerned that inkjet printers can print money. yes they can, but they are nothing like the real money.

Rapid prototyping is merely a tool. Like an inkjet printer. It is not a substitute for actual manufacturing. However with the onset of rapid prototyping, it has become very accessible for people to develop their ideas and produce a very viable prototype and then find ways to manufacture them. Brickarms is a great example. He makes his own molds and uses a desktop injection molding machine. While inexpensive, it takes a bit of engineering and study to know how to develop molds properly. things to do with drafts and inlets so the liquid plastic has places to run and not get trapped and have air bubbles.

More so, after market manufacturers like Brickarms and various other companies that are developing Lego compatible parts, should fear TLG filing suit against them to cease and desist.

So is the way with Hasbro and all the 3rd party manufacturers. While most aftermarket manufacturers are based in China and that makes it hard to file suit, Hasbro can simply play hardball and have all the online retailers stop carrying the 3rd party products. Since most if not all of them are in someway a violation or infringement of Hasbro's copyright and trademark.

[ghyde]

This is about something that most likely won't happen until at least 10-20 years from now, but eventually it will.

In case you don't know, 3D Printing is basically CAM (Computer-Aided-Manufacturing) technology that allows "fast" creation of objects of various material (ABS plastic being one of them) in a fully-programmable machine. The idea is that of having something similar to a regular printer, except that instead of printing documents of paper, a 3D Printer "prints" (i.e. sculpts) solid objects of a chosen material.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3d_printing

[...]

So what's your gut feeling? Is it going to be a more good or bad thing? (Sorry, not enough posts yet to create a poll here... )

My "gut" feeling is that there's not going to be an issue unless and until the 3D technology is either superseded by something better, like a matter replicator a la Star Trek (I think was in ST:TNG and later but not in the original Star Trek itself) and production of items then becomes a non-issue, or that something major revolutionizes the 3D printing process itself. My expectations are that the latter would happen sooner, although there are reports that matter teleportation technology (which, IMHO, will be a prerequisite for matter replicators) may be just around the corner! I think it will be later rather than sooner though for matter teleportation technology.

I would look forward to being able to matter-replicate in as-new condition a copy of say 6980, but I'll not put my hopes on it coming within my lifetime!

Cheers ...

ghyde

[Legoist]

Thank you Solscud007 for the tech summary!

But I didn't get the warning about getting a "cease and desist". Those companies that are making a business out of it like Brickarms and Brickforge aren't infringing anything unless they're replicating also the "Lego" logo/stamp on the bricks. As far as I know the issue on producing actual bricks has already been in court and TLG lost, in fact TLG isn't sending any "cease and desist" to any of those. However this is a further topic.

[freakwave]

The biggest issue of 3D printing is resolution. You might be able to make a decend square, but curved surfaces will always have a grainy look.

Well, it is a great tool for prototyping to get a piece to play with and make a proof of concept. But to get smooth surfaces we are used from our bircks it takes more, a proper mold and the right machinery to mass produce bricks. To mass produce with your own 3D printer is a very distant illusion right now. It would definately be more expensive than 10 cents a piece if you look into a special 1 x 2 plate or similar.

Even, I think it was Brickarms, does their prototypes now with the 3D Printer, but final production is with a mold as it gives higher quality and those molds are made locally around the corner and not in the production site of the world, China.

I bet my two cents that even within the next 5 years one would not be able to make a smooth part with a 3D printer that would not be distingushable from a "real" molded brick/piece.

Also the strenght will not be the same if you look how the 3D printing works.

fW