Will I see double?

[Ritz Brick]

I'm still unsure of how you get certain minifigs from the series. If I order 16 lots of the minifigure series 2 from S@H. Is there a chance I might get 2 of the same?

[Extreme Sadness.]

Yeah, probably, although you might get lucky and get a full set, or you might get an awesome figure(Like the Spartan)for a double.

-ES

[prateek]

Yes. They are random, so they just take a bunch of baggies from their stock and put them in a box and ship it. They don't know what's inside each bag, unless they check each one with a barcode sheet, which they don't

[fred67]

I'm still unsure of how you get certain minifigs from the series. If I order 16 lots of the minifigure series 2 from S@H. Is there a chance I might get 2 of the same?

It's random, so the likelihood of you getting a full set is astronomical.

I've gotten two sets of 16 from S@H, and have not gotten a Spartan, I've not gotten a Pop Singer, and I've not gotten a Vampire.

One guy on the BrickLink message boards claims to have ordered 16 and was amazed he actually got 18... until he found out they were all witches. One guy on FBTB.net got, in two orders, 5 cops and 7 weightlifters.

It kind of sucks, actually.

[Darth Jar Jar]

One guy on the BrickLink message boards claims to have ordered 16 and was amazed he actually got 18... until he found out they were all witches.

I think he/she lying since they probably grab them out off boxes its very unlikely to get all witches in an order off 16 its near impossible

[fred67]

I think he/she lying since they probably grab them out off boxes its very unlikely to get all witches in an order off 16 its near impossible

Maybe she's lying, but it really doesn't seem like it.

Yes, it's pretty much impossible to get an order like that by mistake. I'm guessing some shipping packer was in a bad mood or something... nobody thinks it could possibly have been random.

Both my orders had a decent mix, but none of what are commonly being considered the desirables... no Spartans, no Vampires... plenty of witches, cops, and weightlifters. I'm a very suspicious guy, and I don't believe it's beyond reason to think that an employee might hoard for themselves, either.

[Big Cam]

I think he/she lying since they probably grab them out off boxes its very unlikely to get all witches in an order off 16 its near impossible

Actually its not impossible. Shop @ home does not just open boxes and randomly pick figs for you. There were numerous reports of people ordering the 5 limit on series one, and getting 5 crash test dummies, so there is obviously a specifically way that shop @ home fufills their orders.

[Rick]

so there is obviously a specifically way that shop @ home fufills their orders.

That was probably because all five crash dummies (if I recall correctly) were right at the front of one of the rows in the boxes, just like the ninjas in another

[Joebot]

Yes, it's pretty much impossible to get an order like that by mistake. I'm guessing some shipping packer was in a bad mood or something... nobody thinks it could possibly have been random.

To paraphrase Douglas Adams' Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: "It's not impossible. Just very, very improbable."

Perhaps they have an Infinite Improbability Drive there in Billund??

Stories like this (whether true or not) are exactly why I hate blind packaging. It's a sleazy marketing ploy to get you spend money on stuff that you don't want.

[Aanchir]

To paraphrase Douglas Adams' Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: "It's not impossible. Just very, very improbable."

Perhaps they have an Infinite Improbability Drive there in Billund??

Stories like this (whether true or not) are exactly why I hate blind packaging. It's a sleazy marketing ploy to get you spend money on stuff that you don't want.

I don't see how it's sleazy. It only makes you spend money on stuff you don't want if you have a special goal in mind. The way I see it, you don't get any minifigs you don't pay for, and you don't pay for any minifigs you don't get. If you don't think 15 figs of about equal value are worth your money, you don't pay for 15.

You never know... some people might have appreciated getting 18 witches for the price of 16. Not everyone, certainly, but some people.

[AFOL SF]

...buying 16 minifigs from S@H is like the lotto or the sweapstakes... you'll never know if you're going to win or not, how much or none at all... same with the minifigs... you can get lucky or not, depending on which ones you'd like to have.

With Series 1, I was lucky enough to get 3 clowns in my order (unfortunately no cheerleader or skateboarder which I have to buy online at a ridiculous price to complete a set). With series 2 (16 minifigs total), I got 1 each of the pharaoh & roman soldier to complete the set.

So, good luck!...

[Joebot]

I don't see how it's sleazy. It only makes you spend money on stuff you don't want if you have a special goal in mind. The way I see it, you don't get any minifigs you don't pay for, and you don't pay for any minifigs you don't get. If you don't think 15 figs of about equal value are worth your money, you don't pay for 15.

Added emphasis mine.

Sure, if you want into the Lego Store with the intent of buying GENERIC LEGO MINI-FIG, then the blind packaging is irrelevant. But in reality, do many people do that? I'm guessing that most consumers have a specific mini-fig in mind that they're looking for -- either one that they're missing for their collection, or one that they like more than the others. Blind packaging makes that very difficult. How many figs do you buy in order to get a resonable shot of getting the one you want??

Blind packaging is anti-consumer, which is why I say it's "sleazy." It benefits the seller, not the buyer. It's a con game. It motivates the consumer to buy things that they don't want in the hopes of getting the thing that they DO want. Can you imagine that marketing ploy working in any other industry besides collectibles?? The seller is preying on the collectible mentality, the "gotta catch 'em all" attitude that drives people to complete a collection. Imagine going to the grocery store, or the pharmacy, or a car dealership, and being forced to blindly purchase a item without knowing for sure what it is. It's laughable. Nobody would ever do that.

The only reasons that consumers tolerate this nonsense in the collecitbles industry is because a) we're used to it (baseball cards have been doing this for, what, 100 years or so??) and b) the financial outlay is so small. If I don't get the fig I want, I'm out two bucks. Not a huge deal. I still say it's sleazy though.

[Aanchir]

Added emphasis mine.

Sure, if you want into the Lego Store with the intent of buying GENERIC LEGO MINI-FIG, then the blind packaging is irrelevant. But in reality, do many people do that? I'm guessing that most consumers have a specific mini-fig in mind that they're looking for -- either one that they're missing for their collection, or one that they like more than the others. Blind packaging makes that very difficult. How many figs do you buy in order to get a resonable shot of getting the one you want??

Blind packaging is anti-consumer, which is why I say it's "sleazy." It benefits the seller, not the buyer. It's a con game. It motivates the consumer to buy things that they don't want in the hopes of getting the thing that they DO want. Can you imagine that marketing ploy working in any other industry besides collectibles?? The seller is preying on the collectible mentality, the "gotta catch 'em all" attitude that drives people to complete a collection. Imagine going to the grocery store, or the pharmacy, or a car dealership, and being forced to blindly purchase a item without knowing for sure what it is. It's laughable. Nobody would ever do that.

The only reasons that consumers tolerate this nonsense in the collecitbles industry is because a) we're used to it (baseball cards have been doing this for, what, 100 years or so??) and b) the financial outlay is so small. If I don't get the fig I want, I'm out two bucks. Not a huge deal. I still say it's sleazy though.

Nobody wants just a generic minifigure, but none of these are generic. And a lot of people will probably be happy with their find even if they get one they didn't expect to get.

And you buy exactly as many minifigs as you think are worth your investment. Nobody's telling you you need X many spartans, plus a full collection of 16. Actually, LEGO's been pretty honest about that-- only the Bios section of the website says "Collect all 16"; all the other promotional material just says "16 to collect", describing the available options.

Get a fig you don't want? Well, you can trade it with someone who does want it. A lot of collectible products emphasize this heavily as an option (although most also create "artificial value" for particular ones by producing far fewer). The collectible figs are all of roughly equal value, so your analogy to going to a grocery store or car dealership and purchasing a random item is inapplicable. A better analogy would be going to a toy store and getting a random $15 LEGO set. Most people (reasonable people, anyway) would be happy getting this. Blind packaging also makes for great gifts and party favors.

And you're incorrect in that the consumer gets nothing out of blind packaging. After all, nobody buys "mystery flavor" lollipops because they're being encouraged to "collect them all". That would be stupid. People buy them because sometimes people like a surprise. There's a great pleasure in opening blind-packaged goods together with a friend and comparing what you got. And from my experience, it's never some competitive thrill, hoping to get the "best" of whatever. Rather, it's a mutual appreciation, being pleased with your own result and your friend's.

In fact, LEGO's been doing blind packaging for several years in the form of advent calendars (yes, most AFOLs who buy these keep them all to themselves, but my family has always divvied up Advent Calendars (LEGO, candy, whatever) by alternating the days to see what we each get.

I myself think LEGO hasn't been the least bit "sleazy" about this product. In fact, I'm downright thankful for the collectible figs, and can't think of any way LEGO could have done better than choosing to sell this product.

[fred67]

In fact, I'm downright thankful for the collectible figs, and can't think of any way LEGO could have done better than choosing to sell this product.

I was sort of there with until that last line... you really don't think it would be better for the consumer to be able to just buy what they want?

It is a marketing ploy... it's almost like gambling.... you're encouraged to keep "playing" until you "win," and I hate the marketing tactic, but I would agree that calling it "sleazy" or a "con" is going way overboard... nobody's holding a gun to anyone's head making them buy these, and we're all well aware that we may not get exactly what we want.

On the other hand, being an apologist for LEGO is a bit ridiculous, too - it's an obvious, tried and true marketing ploy, and it works well, but that doesn't mean it's "consumer friendly" either or "fun" in any way.

[natelite]

i bot 16 from S@H and i got 2 spartans and 2 skiers in the mix. not bad if you ask me since both are rare and desirable.

[Derek]

You will get doubled. No doubt about that. I actually got 17 in my S@H order of 16.

I feel like it wouldn't be as fun if we could just order a complete set of 16.

[CMP]

I ordered 5, but have a personal list of what would happen if I did get a duplicate.

[Joebot]

A better analogy would be going to a toy store and getting a random $15 LEGO set. Most people (reasonable people, anyway) would be happy getting this.

I guess I'm unreasonable then, because I would HATE that.

It's cool that you're enjoying the surprise aspect of these collectible figs. I'm coming at it from a different mindset, it seems. I'm at a point in this hobby where I know what I want to build. I have specific MOCs in mind, and I'm only interested in purchasing bricks, sets, or figs that further those goals. I'm not interested in "surprises."

It is a marketing ploy... it's almost like gambling.... you're encouraged to keep "playing" until you "win," and I hate the marketing tactic, but I would agree that calling it "sleazy" or a "con" is going way overboard... nobody's holding a gun to anyone's head making them buy these, and we're all well aware that we may not get exactly what we want.

Yeah, okay, I probably overstated it. Hey, it's the internet; overstating and exaggerating one's argument is practically required!

[fred67]

A better analogy would be going to a toy store and getting a random $15 LEGO set. Most people (reasonable people, anyway) would be happy getting this. Blind packaging also makes for great gifts and party favors.

Huh... what do you mean by "reasonable people?" Getting it as a gift? Sure, I'd be happy no matter what it was. Paying out of my own pocket for a random $15 LEGO item (when there's actually few themes I follow)? Not so much.

In fact, LEGO's been doing blind packaging for several years in the form of advent calendars (yes, most AFOLs who buy these keep them all to themselves, but my family has always divvied up Advent Calendars (LEGO, candy, whatever) by alternating the days to see what we each get.

That's a terrible comparison... you know exactly what's in the calendar, it's right there on the outside of the box! You don't know which day is which, perhaps, but you know what you're buying overall.

In fact, that's why I plan on buying these minifigures by the box from now on (now that they will be truly blind), because I'll know exactly what I'm getting, and if the packaging trends continue, I won't get stuck with 8 of one thing and zero of another.

I'll say it again... it's not sleazy, it's not a con, but if you can make blanket statements than so can I: it's NOT fun for "reasonable" people. It's not fun driving home from the store with your child saying "I hope I got the Spartan, I hope I got the Spartan" all the way home, and then he opens up his fifth weightlifter.

No, that's not fun. Of course that's an exaggeration because we all know about the bar codes, and even if you don't know them, if you buy a handful you can at least make sure they are different... but does everyone know about that? And even if they do, that ends with the next series.

[CP5670]

I guess I'm unreasonable then, because I would HATE that.

It's cool that you're enjoying the surprise aspect of these collectible figs. I'm coming at it from a different mindset, it seems. I'm at a point in this hobby where I know what I want to build. I have specific MOCs in mind, and I'm only interested in purchasing bricks, sets, or figs that further those goals. I'm not interested in "surprises."

I'm like this too. If I wanted any of these minifigs, I would just get them from Bricklink. The higher prices there are offset by the time savings and lack of any hassle in getting what you want. The process of collecting and trading in itself has no appeal to me, and I would much rather be actually building.

[davee123]

People have been posting their stats on FBTB and Classic-Castle-- so far it looks like the S@H pickers for Series 2 are better than Series 1 (where it was VERY slanted towards receiving duplicates), but it's still not at the mathematical model of perfect randomness.

If all the odds were perfectly random and evenly distributed, your odds of getting a certain number of minifigs is approximately:

1 - 0.0000000000000000867362%

2 - 0.0000000000426313%

3 - 0.000000130083%

4 - 0.0000406802%

5 - 0.0031148%

6 - 0.0854835%

7 - 1.0257934%

8 - 6.0249157%

9 - 18.4713377%

10 - 30.5225119%

11 - 27.350845%

12 - 13.029987%

13 - 3.1308438%

14 - 0.3414022%

15 - 0.0136107%

16 - 0.000113423%

So in a perfectly statistically random world, most people would be getting about 9, 10, or 11 different minifigs, with some people getting 8 or 12. It'd be pretty rare to see anyone get 7 different figs or 13 figs, and virtually unheard of to get 6 or fewer, or 14 or more. Your chances of getting 16 different figs is around 1 in 881,658-- almost 1 in a million.

However, the actual statistics so far have been (assuming you order 16 minifigs):

1 - 0 people

2 - 0 people

3 - 0 people

4 - 0 people

5 - 1 person

6 - 0 people

7 - 3 people

8 - 11 people

9 - 7 people

10 - 8 people

11 - 3 people

12 - 2 people

13 - 2 people

14 - 0 people

15 - 0 people

16 - 0 people

So, rather than the center being around 10.5, the center appears to be around 8.5 different figs that you can expect. Of the 43 S@H orders that have been reported (6 of them being for more or less than 16 figs), EVERYONE has gotten at least 1 duplicate.

Current stats:

Lifeguard - 60 received in 31 orders

Karate Master - 56 received in 27 orders

Witch - 53 received in 32 orders

Weightlifter - 52 received in 25 orders

Traffic Cop - 51 received in 29 orders

Ringmaster - 46 received in 24 orders

Surfer - 44 received in 27 orders

Spartan - 44 received in 26 orders

Mr. Mariachi - 44 received in 25 orders

Mime - 37 received in 22 orders

Skier - 33 received in 19 orders

Disco Dancer - 32 received in 22 orders

Vampire - 32 received in 21 orders

Pop Star - 31 received in 21 orders

Pharoah - 30 received in 24 orders

Explorer - 23 received in 18 orders

As for pairings in a single order (as in the number of times people said "I got 4 of ______", or "I got 2 copies of _______"):

1 - 219 instances

2 - 104 instances

3 - 47 instances

4 - 16 instances

5 - 6 instances

6 - 1 instance

DaveE

Edited September 23, 2010 by davee123

[Klay]

I ordered 16 from S@H and got 7 duplicates. Luckily, I got three skiers and three vampires.