sok117 Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Well that's just ridiculous and narrow minded. For a novelist, you obviously don't read much. I've read about similar situations to ours, and statistically, when we have an even number of us to start with, we the villagers have a higher probability of winning when we vote on the first day, even random voting, than if we don't vote. So, I'm all for a vote on the first day sir, and if we have a possible lead like we have in this situation, then all the better. Waiting for evidence is what they do in detective books, and this isn't a kids story, sir, this is real life. Could you please tell me where you managed to get this formula from? say we have 24 of us, and lets just throw out a number like three werewolves on the first day and one independant, then we randomly vote on the first day, lets see, we have a 4/24 or 1/6 chance of hitting something that would be good for the town, so we randomly vote, and it will most definitely be a town member, so now we have 19 town as opposed to 20 how is that getting us closer to winning then losing? If theres something I'm missing here fellow constable could you please speak up. And to continue, I think this possible lead is more of voting on a whim, I think were all scared and we shouldn't just vote out the good doctor based on this. I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm keen to get this situation cleared up as soon as possible so we can all go back to our every day lives. I'm not going to stand by and wait for them to come kill us in the night, nor am Igoing to wait for "evidence" to fall out of the sky. That is simply not going to happen. No, I agree with Madame Harriet, we must follow our gut instincts in this matter. I as well, if we are all working towards the same goal as you have stated above, surley we can make some sense of this, I for one would like to take action to, but I am not ready to kill a man with next to nothing of evidence on him, no sir, I think that it may be in our best interest to wait for something a bit more substantial, at least thats what my "instincts" are telling me, as with others, many peoples "instincts" are telling them that we are condeming an innocent man to his death Thus, to get things moving, I'm going to Vote: Zed Phillips (Zepher). As an officer of the force, we are taught to act decisively and to set an example for the public good. Well, the Chief has instructed us to vote, so that is what I will do. Well, the Cheif has stated that he does not feel comfortable with voting for Zed, and nor do I, and for that matter, what kind of example are you setting for the good people of blackwood? Lynch without any real evidence, lynch the naive and tired without any second thought? Thats not the code I live by. Oh I never said it was a good probability, I just said that in general, we have a higher probability of winning when we start with an even number of players than when we start with an odd number. Hurray for testicles. Of course we're more likely to convict a fellow Villager, but if you can't handle a bit of innocent blood, then this really wasn't a good situation to get yourself caught up in, sir. So then what probability is that? Even if it was a 51% higher probability of winning, sure thats higher then 50% but it's pretty insiggnificant, and thats still not a valid reason for voting in my book. Your even going on to admit that your most likely condemning a villager, you know it's probably a villager and you still want them dead? Your starting to act really suspicious to me fellow constable. Attention people, do what you will with your vote, but no that there is next to no basis for voting, as my fellow officer said "we're most likely voting for a fellow villager" and yet still wanted to vote for him, somethings not right here, and I hope your all seeing this too. And a further note, I'd like to take this time to say that I have tried talking to both the chief and my fellow officer in the corner over there, the chief was happy to respond quickly, my fellow officer, who has had ample time to answer me has still said nothing, it may just be nothing, but I don't like it one bit.
Shadows Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 The 'evidence', such as it is, is fairly slim, but sometimes the truth comes in vague packages. For now... Vote: Zed Phillips (Zepher) Should a better lead or suspicion come along, I'll be more than happy to follow it and change this. It's also pretty unlikely he's a werewolf. Why is that? Do you have some special knowledge you could perhaps convey to me via a trusty pigeon message? Don't forget to kick it. As for multiple factions, we already have Count Baron von Vampirepants and the werewolves. I certainly hope there aren't more, but it wouldn't surprise me. Keep your eyes open for people who don't have the best interests of the village at heart, or who seem to throw suspicion in many directions at once, they're usually acting independently of the town and can't be trusted. And they get the host killed, but that's a minor problem not to be worried about.
Zepher Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Perhaps because he's able to read and understand a truthful and simple explanation when he sees one. Oh well. I like your top hat and beard, so you are forgiven. And thanks for everyone who is giving me a vote of trustworthy, but it doesn't help me out really as long as these fellows are still voting me. We have to either convince them to unvote (unlikely) or pick another target and put more votes on that person.
sok117 Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Why hat? Do you have some special knowledge you could perhaps convey to me via a trusty pigeon message? Don't forget to kick it. As for multiple factions, we already have Count Baron von Vampirepants and the werewolves. I certainly hope there aren't more, but it wouldn't surprise me. Keep your eyes open for people who don't have the best interests of the village at heart, or who seem to throw suspicion in many directions at once, they're usually acting independently of the town and can't be trusted. And they get the host killed, but that's a minor problem not to be worried about. Well dacius has said the same thing about zed most likely being town, but he is still willing to vote him out, I wonder if he has any info he'd like to send over my way, I have tried contacting him but he has yet to reply. And as for these multiple factions, I dont think the baron is a vampire, but if we find Someone killed tonight drained of all their blood with two holes in their neck, then by all means vampires walk among us, but for now I think all we are dealing with are werewolves and maybe an independent. As for people who dont have the village at heart, look at what I've stated before, dacious seems all the ready to vote out a probable townie.
Inconspicuous Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 I think that it may be in our best interest to wait for something a bit more substantial, at least thats what my "instincts" are telling me, as with others, many peoples "instincts" are telling them that we are condeming an innocent man to his death. Your even going on to admit that your most likely condemning a villager, you know it's probably a villager and you still want them dead? Your starting to act really suspicious to me fellow constable. Mr. Sokern, you make some good points. If anything, my instincts are leaning towards Mr. Nathans too. It's one thing to want to vote, but another to speak with such conviction despite little to work from in the first place. It worries me how easily he seems to blame, and I find that suspicious. But I'm not going to be a hyprocrite and vote for Mr. Nathans. Like him, I have little to base a vote off of, nothing except suspicion and his strange pursuit of lynching Zed. Each day brings more information, even if it's something small. And sometimes something small is enough to light a chain of votes, like we've seen this morning. I'd just rather have that spark be a little brighter before the whole village explodes.
CMP Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Why is it Sebastian, Harriet, and Dacius seem to be the only people openly accusing Zed? Harriet really started the campaign against him, Sebastian and Dacius are the only ones to yet vote for him. They seem kind of...eager.
Hinckley Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Okay so from now on we don't need reason to vote, okay lets start by voting out every single person with a hat on, or everyone with the colour brown hair. Can you guys not see that we are voting because of a stupid reason, I could come up with better reasons to vote off other people in two minutes. I would do if I wasn't so tired. Come guys and think about wheather you really want to convict an innocent who could be a vitally important member of the village. What are you basing your trust in Zed Phillips on? I know what he has told you in private, but the explanation is "I can't really explain it." That doesn't sound like a solid story to me. Please think about it I think that it may be in our best interest to wait for something a bit more substantial, at least thats what my "instincts" are telling me, as with others, many peoples "instincts" are telling them that we are condeming an innocent man to his death What evidence do you think we will get? God has told us we would be punished if we don't vote someone out. Do you really think he will provide us with evidence before the end of the day? All we have is our instincts at this point and Zed Philips is not very convincing in his defense. We have more reason to suspect him at this point than you do to trust him. Perhaps because he's able to read and understand a truthful and simple explanation when he sees one. Oh well. I like your top hat and beard, so you are forgiven. And thanks for everyone who is giving me a vote of trustworthy, but it doesn't help me out really as long as these fellows are still voting me. We have to either convince them to unvote (unlikely) or pick another target and put more votes on that person. You are an intelligent man and I have trouble believing you would be so sloppy before participating in this investigation. You are a writer and know how to weave a story. A writer should have more respect for the written word and make sure everything written for you is well absorbed. If you are voted out and are killed in vain, I hope it serves as a lesson that we should play life hard and take it as seriously as possible. Treating it lightly can lead to an early death or an unnecessary wrong conviction. Why is it Sebastian, Harriet, and Dacius seem to be the only people openly accusing Zed? Harriet really started the campaign against him, Sebastian and Dacius are the only ones to yet vote for him. They seem kind of...eager. Dacius and I are basing our vote based on what we know is in the hearts of the Villagers. Zed Phillip's early assertions in this investigation seem like those of someone who has bad intentions for the Villagers. I have seen more of Zed's defense in private and do not buy that either. Since I first made the accusation, I stand by my instincts and my fellow villagers who believe I may have uncovered a werewolf in our presence. Vote: Zed Phillips/Zepher My sincerest apologies if you are convicted and it turns out we lose you in vain. Human life is important and I value it greatly but to keep ourselves safe we have to follow what little we have to go on...
Zepher Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 If you think the truth is a weak defense, then god help this town. I have had nothing to add to my "weak" defense because I refuse to make things up.
MagPiesRUs Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 And I would never say I have a night action. That would make me a target if I survive, which seems unlikely. So you'd rather get lynched then try to survive with a revealed night action? What kind of priorities are those? Regardless of whether you're a werewolf or not, that's just stupid. I agree with Mr. Conan. Mr. Phillips, If you have an important night action, by all means tell us. Because at the moment, I'm leaning towards voting for you. Your potato message to Harriet is something we can't just overlook because you told us it was an honest mistake, it's the only lead we have at the moment. The amount of supporters you have also concerns me a little. This is only the first day, so it seems odd that so many people are willing to trust you. I can't recall this ever happening to any previously convicted townies on Day 1.
Zepher Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Perhaps we have learned from our mistakes. I have never seen a convicted townie on the first day ever be scum, and perhaps they are finally seeing that a forced vote with flimsy evidence is not helping us but rather hurting us. And the only other time I was ever forced to revealing any information to save my megablocks, in a play I wrote, rather, I was killed the very night of it. I refuse to comment either way. I'm dead meat even if I don't get convicted, I'm almost certain the werewolves will target me tonight to make my accusers look all the more guilty. I have given up. Either kill me today and have another villager killed during the night, or save me to be killed during the night and have only one villager killed. You people are too stubborn and have too high expectations of me. I simply missed reading one thing. I can not say anything else.
iamded Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Either kill me today and have another villager killed during the night, or save me to be killed during the night and have only one villager killed. That's an outlook that, if this sort of situation happened often, I feel I would stick with throughout. The chances of pinning down a werewolf, or any sort of scum on the first day are indeed slim, and too often you just end up with an unnecessary innocent casualty. But that's just my opinion, and I don't believe madam Harriet or officer Nathans are scum because they don't share my opinion. Not so sure about Mr Sebastian Vaughn though...
badboytje88 Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 My fellow villagers, I believe we have a second slip up by the same person. Earlier today my beloved husband said: I am most likely to vote for Zed as well. I am one of the Villagers and thus I received information that we need to eradicate all other factions in order to prevail. This was Zeds reply: ...which seemed a little formal and direct to me. I'm a villager. I have that information too. Not too subtly trying to fit in. But alas, again not a case, and I certainly would not vote for him on that alone. He thinks the choice of words is a little formal and direct. But any true villager knows that he needs to eradicate all other factions. And thanks for everyone who is giving me a vote of trustworthy, but it doesn't help me out really as long as these fellows are still voting me. We have to either convince them to unvote (unlikely) or pick another target and put more votes on that person. Zed are you suggesting to just randomly pick someone and vote for that person, even though there is even less information proving this person is a werewolf, than there is information proving you are a werewolf? Your just trying to get everyone to vote out a random player to save your own sorry megablocks. Also you are refusing to tell us who trusts you. Trust via pigeon messages won't get you far. I won't vote for you (just jet) since I believe anyone could make a honest mistake. But I do not think your defense is very adequate.
Hinckley Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 He thinks the choice of words is a little formal and direct. But any true villager knows that he needs to eradicate all other factions. Correct. Which is why I even italicized it and winked when I said it. :wink:
iamded Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Zed are you suggesting to just randomly pick someone and vote for that person, even though there is even less information proving this person is a werewolf, than there is information proving you are a werewolf? Technically, there isn't any "evidence". But enough defending Mr Phillips. I certainly have no proof of his innocence, nor proof that he's afflicted. I hereby choose to remain impartial on this matter. I will briefly mourn Mr Phillips if he turns out innocent, but on the contrary I will congratulate madam Harriet if he's a werewolf, for her sharp wit and attention to detail.
badboytje88 Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Correct. Which is why I even italicized it and winked when I said it. :wink: I know you did, it was the moment you said Zed slipped up for the first time. But he slipped up again by saying the words my husband chose were overly formal.
Eskallon Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 So your telling me it's a worse idea to try and vote out one of these Hedons, and that we should just let them ripe us apart during the night? Sorry for speaking out of turn Mr. Hewitt, but I just can't side with you, especially with argument skills like 'I would do if I wasn't so tired'. It was nearly midnight here, check if you want, I am in England. Well that's just ridiculous and narrow minded. For a novelist, you obviously don't read much. I've read about similar situations to ours, and statistically, when we have an even number of us to start with, we the villagers have a higher probability of winning when we vote on the first day, even random voting, than if we don't vote. Thus, to get things moving, I'm going to Vote: Zed Phillips (Zepher). As an officer of the force, we are taught to act decisively and to set an example for the public good. Well, the Chief has instructed us to vote, so that is what I will do. Plus I never liked your damn freaky novels anyway. Oh come Officer, I have known you for many years and we both know that you couldn't do probability for your life, so where did you think about when Zed is innocent and that may greatly decrease our chances of winning, especially if he had a decent night action. I just don't think that there is a point of voting someone for that little mistake.
def Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 I don't feel a need to vote today, as the few votes cast are enough to condemn anyone, and I don't feel strongly either way about this bookworm. At the same time, having him convicted will shine a new light on all the bustling discussion that has gone on today, so, perhaps it's for the best that this vote carries through.
Dragonator Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Could you please tell me where you managed to get this formula from? Sure thing, you can find some statistics in this book. "Note that the probability for the Town drops when there are an odd number of players to start with." I was just trying to make a point, that it is idiotic to be so dead set against voting on the first day, as that just lets them kill one of us during the night and reduces our chances of survival etc. Sheesh. I am not ready to kill a man with next to nothing of evidence on him, no sir, I think that it may be in our best interest to wait for something a bit more substantial Well then you're going to be waiting an awfully long time Officer, as evidence doesn't normally just fall out of the sky in situations like this. The best we can hope for is that one of the werewolves slips up, but until then, we're on our own. I would have thought that the Academy would've taught you that much at least. Lynch without any real evidence, lynch the naive and tired without any second thought? Thats not the code I live by. In normal circumstances, I would never consider it, but we have been asked to vote, and thus it is our duty to do so. I'm not standing by while the werewolves start ripping us to pieces, and frankly I can't understand why you are happy to do so. As I said, this vote is my opinion, feel free to vote for whoever you want to. But, vote we must, otherwise we're just sheep waiting to be taken by the big bad wolf... Your even going on to admit that your most likely condemning a villager, you know it's probably a villager and you still want them dead? Your starting to act really suspicious to me fellow constable. Whendid I say I was most likely condemning a villager? I said statistically it is more likely, yes, but that doesn't mean I think he is one. Currently, I think he is a werewolf, hence why I'm voting for him. I would have thought an Officer of the Force would have a bit more sense. You find my actions suspicious do you? Well, I find it highly suspicious that you are so quick to defend someone you know nothing about and should have no reason to trust whatsoever. Or do you? Each day brings more information, even if it's something small. And sometimes something small is enough to light a chain of votes, like we've seen this morning. I'd just rather have that spark be a little brighter before the whole village explodes. Yeah, and each day will bring death as well. If you're happy to stand by while your fellow townspeople are murdered, well that's your call, but I'm certainly mot going to. Action is the only way forwards. Seriously, I don't get you people and your squeamishness with voting, but as we can see, by placing my vote I have at least triggered several very interesting responses from people. Very interesting...
Rick Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 I'm in favor of voting for someone today, because we all know not using the first day is not getting us started at all. We'll be here tomorrow morning with no 'real evidence', because nothing solid comes up, and all the people wandering around at night are too scared to openly admit it (and I can't blame them) for fear of becoming targets of the werewolves, or whatever creatures we are facing. So... I'd like to vote, but unfortunately I can't vote. I consider it a disgrace, but apparently that's how people in this town get treated after serving their country for so long: by taking away their voting rights on important matters. This will not silence me however, as I will continue to voice my suspicions. And right now, Zed still hasn't convinced me of his innocence. And what's perhaps even more worrying is all the people coming to his defense.
Eskallon Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Seriously, I don't get you people and your squeamishness with voting, but as we can see, by placing my vote I have at least triggered several very interesting responses from people. Very interesting... Yes, several responses which tell you how stupid you are being, yet you are still determined to vote off Zed. At first I thought it was just you trying to make a conviction but now I think you are acting extremely determined, more determined than everyone else. Aswell as this your statistics don't take much into account. Everything you say is only taking into account one side of the argument and I feel like you are just trying to lose us an innocent since even you said yourself that it is likely he will be innocent. I know that all us village are trying to help the situation and my opinion is that you are trying to get too much done on the first day so I see that as a werewolf trait and here is my vote: Vote:Dacius Nathans (Dragonator)
Dragonator Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 It has been pointed out to me that the stats I bookmarked there are for when the werewolves have already struck the night before. Regardless, I was simply using them to back up my point that it is ridiculous not even to consider voting on the first day. For example, not voting today is the equivalent of starting with a kill at night. And then when we get no further evidence you'll all start saying you don't want to vote tomorrow either.
Eskallon Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 It has been pointed out to me that the stats I bookmarked there are for when the werewolves have already struck the night before. Regardless, I was simply using them to back up my point that it is ridiculous not even to consider voting on the first day. For example, not voting today is the equivalent of starting with a kill at night. And then when we get no further evidence you'll all start saying you don't want to vote tomorrow either. Yeah but what happens then when he is innocent and a villager dies, that makes two deaths which is still worse than one.
CMP Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 I'm not exactly defending Phillips, and I don't want to vote anyone out right now, but Phillips is probably going to go. I'm still suspicious about Harriet, Sebastion, and Dacious. They all used the exact same points to justify voting for Phillips. It worries me a little. But I must take my bi-daily nap.
def Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 So... I'd like to vote, but unfortunately I can't vote. I consider it a disgrace, but apparently that's how people in this town get treated after serving their country for so long: by taking away their voting rights on important matters. This will not silence me however, as I will continue to voice my suspicions. And right now, Zed still hasn't convinced me of his innocence. And what's perhaps even more worrying is all the people coming to his defense. I don't quite understand why you can't vote, but I agree with your logic... Mostly. These werewolves are crafty and paranoia-inducing. Consider these two situations: A) Zed is a wolf. Those who quickly defended him seem suspicious, but they may also have merely been cautious. At the same time, some who vote for him are surely guilty. Feeling his conviction unstoppable, they place their vote to show future evidence of their "innocence". B) Zed is innocent. Again, someone who voted for him is likely a wolf, stirring the pot, but I also think a wolf will protest the conviction, again, as future evidence of their "innocence". So, a conviction will show us something, but mostly more people's words to analyze in the aftermath. I am not willing to make a defense of a veritable stranger like young Zed, so let's hope this "gut-feeling" is leading us in the right direction.
Dragonator Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 I know that all us village are trying to help the situation That doesn't make grammatical sense, moron. I know what you're getting at though, good job telling everyone. Feel free to vote for me, I don't mind, but you'll only be losing a potentially useful villager. More useful than our illiterate novelist over there. Your loyalty to your staff is... remarkable to say the least, chief. Hmmm, well this is fun, isn't it? More cock, anyone, or is it time for lunch? I am not willing to make a defense of a veritable stranger like young Zed, so let's hope this "gut-feeling" is leading us in the right direction. A good point, and I wonder why a couple of other people are so quick to defend as well. Caution I can understand, but they seem very determined to save someone who by all rights they shouldn't give a toss about. Very interesting.
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