The Forest Mafia: Day One

[Professor Flitwick]

Vote: Helen Hippo/ def

I think you're finger pointing needs scrutinizing and that you're far too quick to try and displace blame. I don't do this maliciously either but I believe Edgar's story and you started the snowball down the hill. I'm willing to vote elsewhere if there's a more solid lead.

I quite agree Portia. Edgar spoke up four times before the amount of times spoken was brought to out attention by Horace Horse (exactly as many times as Brigid, Bruno, Cameron and Horace - why place the blame just on poor Edgar), and once before the first few votes were casted against him, and numerous times now that he must rush to defend himself. I'm sure anyone else would speak up more if their life depended on it. Lets see if Helen does the same. Vote: Helen Hippo/ def

[Lord Arjay]

I am suprised at how little time it took for Edgar to be brought so close to a conviction. We have plenty of time left in the day, yet some of you are acting as though we must rush a conviction right now. It's bizarre how little discussion there was. I'd be appreciative if I was given the chance to comment on things before the day is over and I'm sure others would be aswell. Though Edgar doesn't have much of a defence, the quick bandwagon against him does make me doubtful that he could be scum.

Vote: Helen Hippo/ def

I think you're finger pointing needs scrutinizing and that you're far too quick to try and displace blame. I don't do this maliciously either but I believe Edgar's story and you started the snowball down the hill.

I disagree with that. If Edgar is telling the truth then there probably is scum hiding among the bandwagon, though I'm not sure Helen can be held responsible. It doesn't look like she was actively trying to get Edgar lynched, she simply voiced a suspicion. However, you do have a point about how quickly she shifted any possible blame from herself.

I'm going to look at the voting record for a while and then decide which of the votes look most suspicious.

[Professor Flitwick]

I disagree with that. If Edgar is telling the truth then there probably is scum hiding among the bandwagon, though I'm not sure Helen can be held responsible. It doesn't look like she was actively trying to get Edgar lynched, she simply voiced a suspicion. However, you do have a point about how quickly she shifted any possible blame from herself.

I'm going to look at the voting record for a while and then decide which of the votes look most suspicious.

If she was just voicing her suspicions, she wouldn't voted. Especially since her departing comment shows little faith in her voting:

This is day one, and votes are of course somewhat random, so this vote is based on metagaming our town's history. Join me in the vote, but please don't punish me if I've pointed my finger wrong.

[Sandy]

I too am surprised to see my friends and neighbours behave in such a way. I have absolutely no clue as to whether Edgar is innocent or not, but the speed of the bandwagon worries me greatly. Edgar has revealed that he has important information about our situation, so lynching him looks like a scummy thing to do.

On the other hand, I do agree with voting against somebody. But why rush into voting, when there's still plenty of daytime left? Ganging up on somebody is an effective way of making them spill their beans, as is evident in the case of Edgar, but since there's a limitation to taking back our votes, we have to be extra careful to not make grave mistakes.

I'm aware that not voting for Edgar right now makes me look as if I'm defending him (it's a damned if I do, damned if I don't situation, really), but I want to take a deep breath, sniff my flower and recollect my thoughts before casting my vote. Hope you don't mind.

[Eskallon]

I too am unsure about Edgar, he seems to know something and though there is the very high possibility he is lying or not does not change the fact he might know something. So I will not be voting for him. I think of the best of the village and I am torn between deciding if we need to vote today or not. It might help us or might now.

If anyone wants to speak to me privatly then feel free.

[Rick]

On the other hand, I do agree with voting against somebody. But why rush into voting, when there's still plenty of daytime left? Ganging up on somebody is an effective way of making them spill their beans, as is evident in the case of Edgar, but since there's a limitation to taking back our votes, we have to be extra careful to not make grave mistakes.

I agree that 'ganging up' somebody this way can be useful. At least we got a claim out of Edgar that way. What Edgar has told me privately is entirely consistent with his story in public and I know he told at least one other animal the exact same thing. Which of course by no means clears him. He could have well conjured up the story after seeing the recently burned-down house. Also, he rather quickly 'spilled the beans', which left this big target on his back. At least I think we shouldn't focus solely on Edgar and also be exploring alternatives. If we conclude at the end of the day that Edgar is the one who should be convicted, so be it... So, did anyone notice any other suspicious sniffingbehavior? Any other leads, ideas?

[Rufus]

I've had a little chat with Edgar, and I'm inclined to believe him. I don't think he would draw attention to his role if he's the opposite of what he says, and it would be very brave to invent the role.

If he is telling the truth, then we the villagers need him.

[Lord Arjay]

If she was just voicing her suspicions, she wouldn't voted.

True, though what I was meaning to say was that all she did was reveal her own thoughts on who was most likely scum and then voted accordingly. She didn't then continue to tell people to vote for Edgar beyond her original statement, it was others who decided they didn't need more discussion and voted with her, creating the bandwagon.

Especially since her departing comment shows little faith in her voting:

This is a good point and I do not disagree with you questioning her. That said, I do not think she should be convicted today when there are others who are more at fault.

[WhiteFang]

At this stage, I appreciate the thanks to the few for not voting me in the day, but certainly one thing for sure, I have a huge target board right behind my back in the night and it's a question mark whether I can survive or not.

Personally, I am not afraid of what Helen has voted. Apparently, she could have thrown a name into the basket. But what worries me most, is the swift convictions... which is extremely rare. Most of the time, I pray to see logical thinking taking place without blind conviction, and I wondered if this is my lucky day? The conviction rate is way much faster than anytime before... I hardly thinks this is any coincidence.

[CorneliusMurdock]

If you can point to someone who you think could be at fault, Kaley. I'm all ears. Fluffy perfectly trimmed ears.

[Lord Arjay]

If you can point to someone who you think could be at fault, Kaley. I'm all ears. Fluffy perfectly trimmed ears.

Of course. The latter end of the bandwagon looks more suspicious to me, as that caused Edgar to be put very close to conviction despite how early in the day it was. Specifically, the group of Kenda, Bristol, Gabby and Bruno. Gilbert unvoted before most people had expressed suspicion at the speed of the badwagon, so his vote is slightly less suspicious. Benji didn't vote straight away, so at least he thought a bit before jumping straight onto the bandwagon (I suppose this could also be interpreted as him waiting for more votes to go on so that he could be sure Edgar would be lynched, though I don't feel that was his motive).

As well as that, Kenda, Bristol, Gabby and Bruno all suggested that they felt Edgar was the only conviction possible at that point, so they felt it best to simply follow the crowd and did not feel at all suspicious about the amount of votes Edgar had gained (admittedly, this doesn't apply to Kenda as much as the others). There are probably others guilty of the same thing, though these four are the people I'm currently looking at.

[Ricecracker]

What the- where'd my post go..?

As well as that, Kenda, Bristol, Gabby and Bruno all suggested that they felt Edgar was the only conviction possible at that point, so they felt it best to simply follow the crowd and did not feel at all suspicious about the amount of votes Edgar had gained (admittedly, this doesn't apply to Kenda as much as the others). There are probably others guilty of the same thing, though these four are the people I'm currently looking at.

It's not that I thought he was the only person to vote out, it's that I didn't want to split the vote, and that there was nothing else to go on. I'm as clueless as anyone here.

[Lord Arjay]

It's not that I thought he was the only person to vote out, it's that I didn't want to split the vote, and that there was nothing else to go on.

So you didn't find anything odd about the eight votes that had already been placed on Edgar in such a short time?

[def]

I don't think he's guilty, and we can be certain that one or two votes for him are scum, and some defense of him are also scum, knowing that he's innocent, wanting to appear town.

Unvote: Edgar the Elephant/Whitefang

Vote: Helen Hippo/ def

I think you're finger pointing needs scrutinizing and that you're far too quick to try and displace blame. I don't do this maliciously either but I believe Edgar's story and you started the snowball down the hill. I'm willing to vote elsewhere if there's a more solid lead.

No worries, day one voting aren't based on much. Don't you think those jumping on the vote are more suspicious than the one who first voted?

[Sandy]

After going through the votes placed on Edgar, and while I find the quick bandwagon highly suspicious, I also wonder why Edgar revealed as much as he did as soon as the votes started coming his way. He could very well be lying, but since there is also a chance he is telling the truth, I'd rather want we look into him and not vote him out yet. It's only Day One in this tragedy, we must not make a hasty decision this early.

But since we need to convict someone to progress, I will vote: Helen Hippo/def.

Please, we need to investigate Edgar tonight, not lynch him right off the bat.

[Professor Flitwick]

I don't think he's guilty, and we can be certain that one or two votes for him are scum, and some defense of him are also scum, knowing that he's innocent, wanting to appear town.

Unvote: Edgar the Elephant/Whitefang

So you vote for Edgar, picking him from a list of people who spoke up just as many times, not sounding at all convinced with your own vote, and then you unvote him, accusing all those who sided with you with the possibility of being members of the cult? Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Quarryman]

Well, after talking to Edgar in private I'm inclined to believe him for now. Unvote: Edgar Elephant / WhiteFang.

[def]

So you vote for Edgar, picking him from a list of people who spoke up just as many times, not sounding at all convinced with your own vote, and then you unvote him, accusing all those who sided with you with the possibility of being members of the cult? Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Well, you have the choice of doing nothing day one. Or, starting a vote for somebody, and seeing how people react. I was a little suspicious of Edgar at first, but over a series of private discussions with him, he seems to be genuinely on our side, so I unvoted him. I find it surprising that during a little nap, he got up to 12 votes! Did 11 others really find him equally suspicious?

Now Brigit Bunny's vote for me, that is suspicious too... The timing, no reasoning...

This Hippo's going to take another nap in the mud. Try not to snowball a vote for me while I'm sleeping, please.

[CorneliusMurdock]

Don't you think those jumping on the vote are more suspicious than the one who first voted?

Maybe, but it was harder to pick one out at the time when a single vote might convict an innocent. My voting was more or less a "Hey wait let's stop and look at this" attempt to split the vote. I don't encourage anyone else to vote unless they feel they have sound reasons.

Since we only get one unvote, I'm going to wait a little while if I choose to do so. I'm going to take a break and think a while before acting on anything next. If anyone needs to talk, I'll be at my store stocking the shelves. It always helps me clear my head.

[def]

Maybe, but it was harder to pick one out at the time when a single vote might convict an innocent.

Nope, 13 votes are needed. Check God's rules.

[Rick]

Well, after talking to Edgar in private I'm inclined to believe him for now. Unvote: Edgar Elephant / WhiteFang.

The thing that was holding me back from unvoting Edgar is the lack of an alternative. I don't really believe the Hippo would attract so much attention to herself to cast the first vote against Edgar if she was scum. The whole bandwagon that followed during and after Edgar's defense has me really worried though. And yes, that does include you Sheldon. All of them seemingly without paying any attention to Edgar's ongoing defense. A bloodthirsty group of Demon Legionnaires on what seemed to be a certain conviction of Edgar? Surely not all of them are scum... I'd most likely support a vote against any one of them, so if anyone has any leads or even some more thoughts?

Unvote: Edgar Elephant (WhiteFang)

I agree with Brigit Bunny that after the coming night we'll likely get to know more about Edgar.

[Professor Flitwick]

I agree with Brigit Bunny that after the coming night we'll likely get to know more about Edgar.

I doubt it; I certainly don't trust anyone enough to start confiding in them. In the aforementioned book with the Werewolf in the Brothel, there was a woman who acted as a mediator, telling everyone by using careful aliases the results of night actions. This woman gained the trust of the others by revealing a scum on the first day, and I don't see anyone building up any kind of rapport with anyone else in order to start such a thing. I doubt an investigator would reveal it themselves; they'd be a prime target for being killed by the cult.

[Hinckley]

Vote tally

White Fang/Edgar Elephant: 8 votes (iamded, Dragonator, Shadows, I Scream Clone, Bob TCM, Ricecracker, Scouts, Walter Kovacs)

def/Helen Hippo: 3 votes (CorneliusMurdock, Professor Flitwick, Sandy)

[def]

def/Helen Hippo: 3 votes (CorneliusMurdock, Professor Flitwick, Sandy)

Of the votes against me; one is from a relative newbie to the village, who votes with his heart, not with his mind; another is from a long timer, who regularly shows incredibly poor judgment in these situations; and the third is from a great tactician, who knowing Edgar was innocent, could "justifiably" throw a vote at poor little Helen here... Oh, that third voter is oh so suspicious.

[Walter Kovacs]

After careful consideration, I have come to the conclusion that Edgar is indeed innocent. So I unvote: Edgar Elephant/WhiteFang.

So that leaves us back at square one, with nothing to go on.