Which is the rarest minifigure in Series 3?

[Dadzilla]

Hello.

New member but lurking for a couple years.

Was hoping someone could help...

I'm trying to figure out which is the rarest minifigure in Series 3.

When I last checked, a fellow member (Whitefang I think) did a count and included probability percentages.

If I remember correctly, the Fisherman had the lowest probability but my memory is not what it use to be.

Any help would be great.

Thanks.

[timmorgan]

I also thought it was the Fisherman.

[Dadzilla]

Yeah, I think the one who reported on it indicated that there would be one Fisherman in every box, but I'm not sure.

[estephano (DE)]

I remember the Series 3 discussion when it was mentioned early after the S3 release that the fisherman would be the hardest to get your hands on.

However when I bought my first S3 minifigs I managed to get 5 (FIVE) fisherman in one box and the next time I went shopping for S3 minifigs I got 3 fisherman.

So I guess the fisherman isn't as rare and hard to find as many thought it would be.

Over here in Germany I found the tennis player tough to get, but that's only my own personal experience.

[Captain Becker]

I think it as the Elf pretty sure, i didnt buy all S3 minifigs so cant be sure, but it was among "Very rare minifigs to get in S3" i remember it somewhere.

Captain Becker

[Scorpiox]

I found the fisherman fairly easy to find, for me the samurai was rarest (1 in 3 boxes).

Might be my luck though

[fred67]

I found the fisherman fairly easy to find, for me the samurai was rarest (1 in 3 boxes).

Might be my luck though

You bought three boxes (whole boxes, not just 60 packs) and only got 1 Samurai?

Most of what people are posting here is just anecdotal; you can't base your answer on what a few individuals managed to find - most individuals do not buy enough minifigures (it would have to be thousands) to be able to suggest a decent statistical sampling.

What Dadzilla wants to know is the statistical distribution, in which case the fisherman initially only came two to a box, making it the "rarest." Subsequent releases had more in the box, evening it out, but because it started "rare," it's likely technically the rarest one.

On the other hand, the most wanted one was the elf, which, after people have raided the boxes on the shelves, makes it the hardest to find, which makes it also considered "rare," because even if there's more than fishman, there's a disproportionately higher demand... but that's not what Dadzilla wanted to know.

This is the post you were looking for (way down at the bottom).

[Dadzilla]

You bought three boxes (whole boxes, not just 60 packs) and only got 1 Samurai?

Most of what people are posting here is just anecdotal; you can't base your answer on what a few individuals managed to find - most individuals do not buy enough minifigures (it would have to be thousands) to be able to suggest a decent statistical sampling.

What Dadzilla wants to know is the statistical distribution, in which case the fisherman initially only came two to a box, making it the "rarest." Subsequent releases had more in the box, evening it out, but because it started "rare," it's likely technically the rarest one.

On the other hand, the most wanted one was the elf, which, after people have raided the boxes on the shelves, makes it the hardest to find, which makes it also considered "rare," because even if there's more than fishman, there's a disproportionately higher demand... but that's not what Dadzilla wanted to know.

This is the post you were looking for (way down at the bottom).

Thank you all for the responses.

I have to agree with fred67. The Elf and Samurai were among the more difficult to find but that was due to it being more popular, thus being purchased before any of the others.

However, according to WhiteFang's analysis (thank you for the link ), he places the Fisherman as the most rare to find possibly because it is the least produced by Lego.

I remember the Series 3 discussion when it was mentioned early after the S3 release that the fisherman would be the hardest to get your hands on.

However when I bought my first S3 minifigs I managed to get 5 (FIVE) fisherman in one box and the next time I went shopping for S3 minifigs I got 3 fisherman.

So I guess the fisherman isn't as rare and hard to find as many thought it would be.

Over here in Germany I found the tennis player tough to get, but that's only my own personal experience.

Interesting! Was this an unopened box?

If so, that would certainly not make this figure the 'rare' minifigure of Series 3.

I can say with confidence that every single box I've seen at either Walmart/Target/ToysRUs have already been rummaged through before I get to them even though they are completely filled boxes. Could just be that the employees redistribute them into the fewest number of boxes to save shelf space.

[Party Kit]

Thank you all for the responses.

I have to agree with fred67. The Elf and Samurai were among the more difficult to find but that was due to it being more popular, thus being purchased before any of the others.

However, according to WhiteFang's analysis (thank you for the link ), he places the Fisherman as the most rare to find possibly because it is the least produced by Lego.

Interesting! Was this an unopened box?

If so, that would certainly not make this figure the 'rare' minifigure of Series 3.

I can say with confidence that every single box I've seen at either Walmart/Target/ToysRUs have already been rummaged through before I get to them even though they are completely filled boxes. Could just be that the employees redistribute them into the fewest number of boxes to save shelf space.

I agree Dadzilla I found the same thing the boxes seems to be opened and changed. But as far as the fisherman I've seem at lease one in almost every box I'm seen.

[prozac]

fisherman was only 2 per box in first shipments of series 3, not I think he's like 4 per box. I know he's at least 3 per box cause my TRU got 2 fresh boxes in last week and while fondeling them I found at least 3 in a box for sure...can't remember if I found more.

[Dadzilla]

fisherman was only 2 per box in first shipments of series 3, not I think he's like 4 per box. I know he's at least 3 per box cause my TRU got 2 fresh boxes in last week and while fondeling them I found at least 3 in a box for sure...can't remember if I found more.

I think this true.

Just this weekend, Walmart had 4 new boxes. I opened only 2 of the boxes and found three in one of the boxes.

Thanks for the feedback.

I agree Dadzilla I found the same thing the boxes seems to be opened and changed. But as far as the fisherman I've seem at lease one in almost every box I'm seen.

As prozac posted, I believe this was the case with the first couple of waves for Series 3.

Thank you for the response.