Baritones 3: Day Seven

[Quarryman]

Dmitri might be scum (although I'm still not entirely convinced), but as Timur has correctly pointed out, if Dmitri is a member of the Baritones and we convict him, we might be handing victory to the Russian Mafia instead. So, I definitely think it's worthwhile to consider our options and the possible 'end game' scenarios. Ruslana has been awfully quiet the last couple of days and certainly more quiet than when we started this.

To be honest I'd pretty much given up on our situation at it looked too grim and hopeless, and I was just waiting for death. With Wilem coming out as Town I was more than a little surprised that there were any of us townies left alive this morning. So getting rid of your scummy companion Dmitri is my last attempt at dying with a clear conscience.

[Rick]

To be honest I'd pretty much given up on our situation at it looked too grim and hopeless, and I was just waiting for death.

That's the spirit. But I understand, I'm somewhat surprised we're still alive as well. But to me that means the three sides (town, Russian Mafia, and Baritones) to this are approximately equal in size still. Given that two Russians and two Baritones were killed so far, and the fact that we've seem a tommy gun kill (which seems like the Baritones MO) almost every night, it's more likely that the Russian Mafia has been converting successfully. So, it is likely that they are the larger faction by now. So, if it's not too late already, I think we should be attempting to convict a member of the Russian Mafia today.

[Tamamono]

Dmitri might be scum (although I'm still not entirely convinced), but as Timur has correctly pointed out, if Dmitri is a member of the Baritones and we convict him, we might be handing victory to the Russian Mafia instead. So, I definitely think it's worthwhile to consider our options and the possible 'end game' scenarios. Ruslana has been awfully quiet the last couple of days and certainly more quiet than when we started this.

Exactly. I think it's safest to convict a member of the Russian mafia today instead of Dmitri. Now, there is the possibility that the only Russian Mafia members were Max and Donil, but that's very unlikely. As I said earlier, our best shot at getting a Russian would be to convict Boris or Samuel, as they are the only living people who voted for Ruxana (I did too, but I know I'm Town) on Day 3.

Samuel could be scum, but he argued an awful lot. If he and Donil were both scum, he wouldn't have wanted to draw that much attention to himself. However, that's the same logic we used with Denis on Day 1 (He can't be scum! Just look at how much he's arguing!), so anything's possible.

I'd say Boris is the more likely of the two. In his voting statement he said that he 'had a gut™ feeling that Ruxana is scum, and he'd rather kill the unblockable one of the two'. That was the same point I had made earlier (minus the gut part ), and following the theory of someone else always gives you the opportunity to say, "Hey, I'm not the only one! That guy was wrong, too!" if necessary. Mainly though, he kept his head down on Day 3. That's exactly what a scum would do; he would keep his head down while still trying to prevent Donil from being convicted.

[Fugazi]

The way Denis was ready to vote for Dmitri earlier today is interesting. It seems to imply that Dmitri is not a Baritone, but a Russian. Or a fooled townie, although it seems far-fetched.

Analysing Day 3 votes, it appears that Dmitri voted quite early on for Donil while the votes were still split between Ruxana, Donil and Stanislav. This doesn't make him look like a Russian. On the other hand, Denis' accusation doesn't make Dmitri look like a Baritone either. This clashes with the incorrect information Dmitri provided about Wilem, a townie. If Dmitri is not a fooled townie, he perhaps has a neutral alignment and can win with both sides.

So, if it's not too late already, I think we should be attempting to convict a member of the Russian Mafia today.

While I agree that this would be the ideal course to follow, it's easier said than done. So far no Baritones were lynched by the town, but were rather killed by the poisoner. Which means we can't use voting information to inform a decision.

[CMP]

Dmitri might be scum (although I'm still not entirely convinced), but as Timur has correctly pointed out, if Dmitri is a member of the Baritones and we convict him, we might be handing victory to the Russian Mafia instead. So, I definitely think it's worthwhile to consider our options and the possible 'end game' scenarios. Ruslana has been awfully quiet the last couple of days and certainly more quiet than when we started this.

Analysing Day 3 votes, it appears that Dmitri voted quite early on for Donil while the votes were still split between Ruxana, Donil and Stanislav. This doesn't make him look like a Russian. On the other hand, Denis' accusation doesn't make Dmitri look like a Baritone either. This clashes with the incorrect information Dmitri provided about Wilem, a townie. If Dmitri is not a fooled townie, he perhaps has a neutral alignment and can win with both sides.

Both of these sentiments, along with several others, are really making me think this over some more. I know it's almsot ridiculous to not vote Dmitri after what happened to Wilem, but most of evidence are pointing towards him just being a townie who investigated someone framed, or perhaps he was a miller.

[Brickdoctor]

I'd say Boris is the more likely of the two. In his voting statement he said that he 'had a gut™ feeling that Ruxana is scum, and he'd rather kill the unblockable one of the two'. That was the same point I had made earlier (minus the gut part ), and following the theory of someone else always gives you the opportunity to say, "Hey, I'm not the only one! That guy was wrong, too!" if necessary. Mainly though, he kept his head down on Day 3. That's exactly what a scum would do; he would keep his head down while still trying to prevent Donil from being convicted.

So I'm not allowed to have a Gut Feeling that's wrong?

And it's apparently a scum move to follow someone else's theories if you think they make sense?

I didn't say much because I didn't have anything of importance to say. There was no point to speaking.

[Tamamono]

So I'm not allowed to have a Gut Feeling that's wrong?

And it's apparently a scum move to follow someone else's theories if you think they make sense?

I didn't say much because I didn't have anything of importance to say. There was no point to speaking.

No, there's nothing wrong with following someone else's theories if you think they make sense. However, it makes sense for a scum to have been on Ruxana's bandwagon on Day 3, and you fit the bill best. You lay low enough to avoid suspicion due to your vote, but you still voiced an open opinion.

[Brickdoctor]

There's a difference between laying low and refraining from speaking when all you're going to be able to do is repeat what someone else said or say 'I agree'.

And I seem to remember that just a Day later, pretty much everyone decided Ruxana was probably scum.

[Rick]

And I seem to remember that just a Day later, pretty much everyone decided Ruxana was probably scum.

Well, that's not really the point. The choice was between Ruxana or Donil back then. A Russian Mafia member wouldn't be likely to vote for one of their own on day 3.

If we really want to try and convict a Russian Mafia member today, I agree, the people not voting for Donil simply have a much higher chance of being a member of the Russian Mafia. All I know is that time is running out today and we cannot afford to not convict someone today.

[Brickdoctor]

Well, that's not really the point. The choice was between Ruxana or Donil back then. A Russian Mafia member wouldn't be likely to vote for one of their own on day 3.

I see your point.

[Rick]

I will go to bed early tonight and the lack of votes is worrying. It looks like we won't get support for anyone this way and that's the last thing we need. Another Full Moon and I'm afraid we're done for. As mentioned before, we should try to convict a member of the Russian Mafia. If Dmitri is scum, I think he's a member of the Baritones. The only other person with a vote against her so far is Ruxana. I have no clue whether she's town or not. I only know that during the last days she's been much quieter than on earlier days. Could she possibly have been converted by the Russians? Besides Dmitri, it's the only option I see for reaching a conviction today.

Vote: Ruxana (Quarryman)

Vote: Ruxana (Quarryman)

Vote: Ruslana (Quarryman)

[Tamamono]

Well, there's only a few hours left in the day, and it doesn't look like we'll reach a conviction if the votes don't start. Dmitri and Ruslana are tied for votes so far, but I personally don't think either of them is a Russian. But they can't both be Baritone, because Dmitri started a vote against Ruslana. The only logical answer is that one of them is Baritone while the other is a Townie.

Like I said before, we need to lynch a Russian today, and the best way to do that is to go for the people who were against lynching Ruxana. I've already made my case against Boris, so I will

Vote: Boris (Brickdoctor)

[Sandy]

This is a disaster!

While I appreciate your theory, Timur, do you realize you are splitting the votes based on mere assumptions? We will never reach a conviction if votes are pulled in three directions, and not reaching a conviction is even worse than convicting a wrong person.

We are achieving nothing if we do not convict someone. And in the end of the day (pun intended), Dmitri is the only one we have concrete evidence against.

I considered Wilem unrational yesterday when he said the town deserves to lose this game of life, but at this moment I'm starting to agree with him. Come on, people, what will it take for you to wake up?!

[Tamamono]

This is a disaster!

While I appreciate your theory, Timur, do you realize you are splitting the votes based on mere assumptions? We will never reach a conviction if votes are pulled in three directions, and not reaching a conviction is even worse than convicting a wrong person.

We are achieving nothing if we do not convict someone. And in the end of the day (pun intended), Dmitri is the only one we have concrete evidence against.

I considered Wilem unrational yesterday when he said the town deserves to lose this game of life, but at this moment I'm starting to agree with him. Come on, people, what will it take for you to wake up?!

I understand, Samuel, and I'm sorry. However, Dmitri is likely to be Baritone, and we need to convict a Russian today! Believe me, I don't want another Full Moon, but I also don't want to convict the wrong person and die.

If it gets to the end of the Day and it looks like we can convict Dmitri, then I will definitely consider changing my vote. But until then, my vote against Boris stands.

[Pandora]

You know Ruslana, the rest of us have been working our megablocks off (and Wilem, may he rest in peace, spent a long time working on his megablocks), whereas you've been content to sit by and just watch as we are lynched, killed at night, poisoned or blown up. You've really done very little to help us root out the evil in this town. In fact you've barely been here at all. Today you swing by to drop off your vote, with no explanation or reasoning - that was just "all you had to say", and then when questioned you tell us you've given up and you are waiting for death.

You're surprised to still be alive - "Gosh, little old me, quiet as a mouse, still alive, that's a surprise!" yes it is a bit, isn't it? Dmitri, as Falicia has pointed out through analysis doesn't seem to have a voting pattern that fits with being either a Russian or a Baritone, and I shall be fair and say that you did vote for Donil who was a Russian scum, but I now believe that to be part of your long-game. You knew that Stanislav was working hard to ensure that Donil was convicted - it was obviously inevitable to you, so what better way to hide away for the whole game than to vote for a doomed team-mate and keep quiet for the rest of this ordeal, feigning surprise to still be alive at this potentially crucial point. Do you want to know why I think Dmitri hasn't been killed at night? Because every day his name comes up for us to lynch; he is a useful foil to distract us from you and your team-mates. If Dmitri weren't here we might be able to see past the smoke-and-mirrors to see the truth - him being alive might be the only thing preventing our town from falling to ruin and the mafia murdering us in our beds.

I applaud you for fooling us for so long, but it's time to give it up now Ruslana. I think Dmitri is the wrong choice today and has been every day - you and your team have successfully used him to divert attention away from you and you're trying to do so again.

I vote: Ruslana (Quarryman)

[CMP]

I think all the evidence is pointing towards you. Vote: Ruslana (Quarryman)

I understand, Samuel, and I'm sorry. However, Dmitri is likely to be Baritone, and we need to convict a Russian today!

Nobody seems to share your opinion. Maybe you should try making your vote COUNT.

[iamded]

...Wow.

Can I just like, leave town? Go somewhere with less tin roofing, a higher appreciation of art, and where people are smart enough to vote out that god damned Dmitri?! This is getting ridiculous.

[Tamamono]

You know, it's rather disquieting that so many people are willing to vote along with Dmitri, the very person who led us to convict Wilem yesterday...

Nobody seems to share your opinion. Maybe you should try making your vote COUNT.

I suppose you have a point. While Boris seems like the most likely Russian, the last thing we want is another Full Moon, so I will

Unvote: Boris (Brickdoctor)

That was my only unvote, so I'm going to wait a bit before voting again so I can weigh the possibilities.

[Hinckley]

vote tally

Dmitri (Dragonator): 3 votes (Sandy, Quarryman, iamded)

Ruslana (Quarryman): 4 votes (Dragonator, Rick, Pandora, CallMePie OrDie)

Boris (Brickdoctor): 1 vote (Captain Tamamono)

[Tamamono]

Boris (Brickdoctor): 1 vote (Captain Tamamono)

Excuse me, Big Voice, I believe I already unvoted Boris.

Unvote: Boris (Brickdoctor)

[Hinckley]

Excuse me, Big Voice, I believe I already unvoted Boris.

Please accept my apologies.

vote tally

Dmitri (Dragonator): 3 votes (Sandy, Quarryman, iamded)

Ruslana (Quarryman): 4 votes (Dragonator, Rick, Pandora, CallMePieOrDie)

[Fugazi]

Time is running out, and we're being asked to choose between two potential scum. I have doubts that Dmitri is really scum, evidence rather point to him being some sort of neutral character. So on a last minute attempt to nail a conviction today I will

Vote: Ruslana (Quarryman)

The alternative is another Fool Moon Night and a very bad day to come. I urge any of you who have doubts to consolidate your vote in order to have a conviction.

[Brickdoctor]

I still think our best option is to lynch Dmitri, but Timur's point about the balance of mafia factions is a good one, so in the interests of reaching a conviction, I Vote: Ruslana (Quarryman).

I may or may not be back before the Day ends have other things that need to get done before the end of the day, now.

[Tamamono]

Please accept my apologies.

Apologies accepted.

The alternative is another Fool Moon Night and a very bad day to come. I urge any of you who have doubts to consolidate your vote in order to have a conviction.

While I'm unsure whether or not Ruslana is the right decision, I have to agree that a Full Moon would be a terrible thing at this point in the game... of life.

I still think our best option is to lynch Dmitri, but Timur's point about the balance of mafia factions is a good one, so in the interests of reaching a conviction, I Vote: Ruslana (Quarryman).

That's not what I meant. My point was that we need to vote out a Russian, and I do not believe that Ruslana is a Russian. She might be Baritone (but if she is, then Dmitri is either Russian or Baritone), or she might even be the poisoner (if that's the case, we need to keep her alive so she can continue to poison scum), but I just can't see her as Baritone. And just look at the votes. The ones who haven't voted for her are me, Samuel, and Irene. If she's Russian and there are four Russians (which I do think there are), then that would mean that me, Samuel, Irene, and her are all Russian. Although I have no way to prove it to you, I am Town. Why would I suggest something like this if I were Russian? If I were Russian, then I would have gladly voted for Dmitri and won the game... of life. Did I do that? No.

You know why she's getting so many votes? Because most (if not all) of the people on the bandwagon are scum! Baritone, Russian, they're all scum! They've all figured that since she hasn't died by poison yet that she must be the poisoner, and both scum teams will stop at nothing to get rid of her. Why don't they just kill her quietly at night, you ask? Because she would still have a chance to poison before being killed (assuming she's the poisoner- which she's probably not).

but I just can't see her as Baritone.

Whoops! I meant I can't see her as a member of the Russian Mafia.

[Tamamono]

It won't make any difference now, but I'll

Vote: Dmitri (Dragonator)