brickmack Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 I've been reading a bit recently about the world's oil supply, and I found a few estimates that the oil supply will run out in a bit over 100 years (based on current usage rates/increase rates), so I started thinking. What's going to happen to LEGO (And other building block toys) when this happens? Since about 99% of LEGO's products are plastic based (pretty much everything except their video games, which would also suffer without LEGO being able to make more physical bricks, since they are based so much off of the real parts). Are there any non-petroleum based materials that they could use instead, which would still be compatible enough with ABS and the other plastics they use to not cause any major problem? Or perhaps would they move entirely into video games and stop making physical products? Any speculation/thoughts? Quote
Siegfried Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 The world will never run out of fossil based oil. You can quote me on that. What's going to happen is that over the next 30-50 years the price of oil will steadily rise until no one can afford to use it like we do today and we'll either all die or we'll find an alternate power source. Assuming we don't die LEGO will be made from another oil source. Quote
LuxorV Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 The world will never run out of fossil based oil. You can quote me on that. What's going to happen is that over the next 30-50 years the price of oil will steadily rise until no one can afford to use it like we do today and we'll either all die or we'll find an alternate power source. Assuming we don't die LEGO will be made from another oil source. Confirmed: the fossil oil supply will not end (as it gets re-filled over time, only veeeeery slowly; thus it's said to be non-renewable at human scale). The problem is that the extraction costs will go way through he roof, making it an anti-economical power source. Quote
Siegfried Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 Confirmed: the fossil oil supply will not end (as it gets re-filled over time, only veeeeery slowly; thus it's said to be non-renewable at human scale). The problem is that the extraction costs will go way through he roof, making it an anti-economical power source. Well you're probably the closest thing we have to a subject matter expert! Quote
Pingles Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 We'll just have to make more dinosaurs to become oil. Problem solved! Quote
JopieK Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 Well, scientists are not all sure that we will run out of fuel at all: http://www.rense.com...eral67/oils.htm http://creation.com/...t-always-fossil http://www.abovetops....php?tid=185401 etc. etc. etc. There are studies that show that fossil fuels can also be formed in not too many years. Quote
CorneliusMurdock Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 We'll just have to make more dinosaurs to become oil. Problem solved! If we can make more dinosaurs, why make them into oil? Let's just ride them around instead of driving cars. Problem solved more awesomely! Quote
Niku Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 :laugh: If we can make more dinosaurs, why make them into oil? Let's just ride them around instead of driving cars. Problem solved more awesomely! And I like also the sincerity of Siegfried: We all going to die. Quote
K-Nut Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 If we can make more dinosaurs, why make them into oil? Let's just ride them around instead of driving cars. Problem solved more awesomely! Signed. But they'll probably go all Jurassic Park on us. Quote
LuxorV Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 There are studies that show that fossil fuels can also be formed in not too many years. For that matter, scientists are trying to get fuel from oil shales and other sources (Germans tryed it towards the end of WWII, already), but they still are too expensive to effectively replace fossil sources. On a side note, most of the fossil fuels come from marine organisms. Sorry, dinosaurs will not give you oil as easily Quote
CMP Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 On a side note, most of the fossil fuels come from marine organisms. Sorry, dinosaurs will not give you oil as easily But...but...dinosaurs. You're all missing the easy answer here: there's probably a hundred billion bricks out there, circulating in Bricklink (and our collections) already. But you have to ask yourselves one question: what's more important? Oil for your eventually-going-to-be-replaced-with-electric-car-automobiles or the eternal joy of LEGOs? Quote
CorneliusMurdock Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 I'm no chemist but I'd think that since not all plastics use oils in their manufacture that it might be possible some day to substitute something for it in ABS. Probably not possible today, but there might be some breakthroughs in the future. As the cost of oil rises, I'm sure more research will be done (probably paid for by LEGO and other companies that produce plastic products). And LuxorV, sure marine life may make better oil but fish are hard to ride on dry land. And not nearly as cool. Quote
Mrlegoninja Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 I doubt the world will ever run out of oil. But if it ever does, we'll be dead by then and not have to worry! Quote
Vincent Kessels Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 ... But you have to ask yourselves one question: what's more important? Oil for your eventually-going-to-be-replaced-with-electric-car-automobiles or the eternal joy of LEGOs? Oh that's easy: LEGO bricks of course! (I don't own a car... ) Seriously, they were already taking about running of oil in the end of the seventies, beginning eighties. But since then they made big advances in using smaller, less productive oil fields and other resources. Higher oil prices will make the use of more and more alternative resources viable. At the same time this use will drive innovation even more, and even lower the production costs of these alternative sources (but not as low as the easy resources). But higher fuel prices is not my biggest worry. It's the lack of plastics and other uses of crude oil that worries me. Luckily they are making progress in making plastics from organic sources like corn, which is already commercially in use. Quote
prateek Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 I think someone will find a way to start recycling higher quality plastics like ABS in the future, so maybe Lego will start using recycled plastic if that happens. Quote
fyrmedhatt Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 We still have plenty of oil, so it's not something we need to worry about too much yet. The use of oil to create plastics is even less worrisome, as oil can get a lot more expensive before we are going to see big increases in price in plastics, remember that most of the price Lego is not from the raw material, but rather all the processing of the plastic, then the molding process, design and distribution. Another thing to consider is that synthetic oil can be created, it is obviously not economical from an energy perspective as you will spend more energy to create the synthetic oil than the amount of energy gained from the oil. For creating plastics, the energy economics are not a consideration, so synthetic oil could still be a viable alternative to petroleum. Quote
Hrw-Amen Posted October 2, 2011 Posted October 2, 2011 (edited) They will have to start melting down all those cheap knock off brands and use the material to make the proper thing! On a more miserable note with all this talk of dying, maybe some day you will be oil and made into Lego? Perhaps come back as a minifig? Edited October 2, 2011 by Hrw-Amen Quote
Siegfried Posted October 3, 2011 Posted October 3, 2011 Well EB, I'm impressed. I was concerned I'd find this topic a war zone of peoples different opinions, but instead it's become an almost fun topic! If we can make more dinosaurs, why make them into oil? Let's just ride them around instead of driving cars. Problem solved more awesomely! Maybe the Dino 2012 line is a subtle hint from TLG? Quote
1980-Something-Space-Guy Posted October 3, 2011 Posted October 3, 2011 They will have to start melting down all those cheap knock off brands and use the material to make the proper thing! On a more miserable note with all this talk of dying, maybe some day you will be oil and made into Lego? Perhaps come back as a minifig? Oh crap, I don't want a kid chewing at my legs! Quote
CMP Posted October 3, 2011 Posted October 3, 2011 Oh crap, I don't want a kid chewing at my legs! Better than being built into a UCS Star Destroyer and left on a shelf for eternity. Quote
vexorian Posted October 3, 2011 Posted October 3, 2011 If we are really heading towards a day in which we run out of oil. TLG will go bankrupt long before that (due to the high oil prices that will start appearing in the process). Quote
AussieJimbo Posted October 3, 2011 Posted October 3, 2011 (edited) We still have plenty of oil, so it's not something we need to worry about too much yet. The use of oil to create plastics is even less worrisome, as oil can get a lot more expensive before we are going to see big increases in price in plastics, remember that most of the price Lego is not from the raw material, but rather all the processing of the plastic, then the molding process, design and distribution. I agree, fyrmedhatt. Distribution costs would also rise but design and tooling are probably the biggest component for Lego. Synthetic raw materials may also be used but if adoption of alternate fueled vehicle advances sufficiently that might not be necessary. Peak oil is a moving target but ultimately a point is reached where it becomes too expensive as a general purpose transport fuel. The more rapid the proliferation of electric/biofuel/hydrogen powered vehicles, the lower the pressure on the oil price. Jay Leno put it well when he described the electric car as the saviour of the V8. If you don't have every car on the road chewing up oil, it can remain more affordable for specialist use like classic cars, aviation and as a raw material for my favourite ABS product. :classic: Edited October 3, 2011 by AussieJimbo Quote
Brickdoctor Posted October 3, 2011 Posted October 3, 2011 They will have to start melting down all those cheap knock off brands and use the material to make the proper thing! Blasphemy! Thou shalt not taint thine LEGO with the material of thine clone brands. Quote
Eilif Posted October 3, 2011 Posted October 3, 2011 When oil becomes too expensive to be a source for most plastic production, you will likely see a mining of landfills and other trash dumps as well as much more regimented and effective recycling of a higher percentage of plastics. Right now it's not a desirable option, but at a certain point, landfills will be a comparatively economical source for reclaing plastic and metals. Quote
Hrw-Amen Posted October 3, 2011 Posted October 3, 2011 They will have to start melting down all those cheap knock off brands and use the material to make the proper thing! On a more miserable note with all this talk of dying, maybe some day you will be oil and made into Lego? Perhaps come back as a minifig? In fact thinking about it, some people get made into diamonds when they go. Could be the start of a new business venture for Lego branching out into funeral market. Some of us are not getting any younger after all! Quote
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