Ragnarök Now - Day Six

[CMP]

The testimony of a proved scum is no testimony at all.

Where's it proved?

Whoops, thought you said Dragmall.

[Scouty]

The testimony of Dagrun was given under desperation and trickery. I think there's truth to it, to a point. Petrus could be a scape goat, I recognize that, but this would be from a very very tricky desperate scum.

Also, I don't think Dagrun was insistent that Dragmall needed to be killed so they could win. I believe she wanted both he and me dead so that they wouldn't be blocked/ruined by protection. That's what I got out of the conversation.

[Chromeknight]

The thing about lying is it is hard to do.

scum therefore lie as little as possible, both to reduce their chances of being caught out at a lie, and to make it easier to remember what they have said, needing to keep track of only a handful of lies.

Dagrun had no reason to lie at this point (though, I grant you, every reason to lie about her last scum partner).

You suggest that the scum do not in fact share roles among them?

[MagPiesRUs]

Vote Count

Petrus Fire-Starter - 6 votes (CallMePie, Dragonator, Scouty, Waterbrick Down, Capt. Redblade, Chromeknight)

Canute Grey-Bush (CallMePie) - 3 votes (Scubacarrot, Rick, Pandora)

With 11 players remaining, 6 votes are required to lynch. There are 27 hours left in the day.

[Dragonator]

I think the above discussion basically sums it up. Dagrun had no reason to lie to Wary, she was 100% certain that Wary would be joining her side.

Dagrun told Wary that Petrus is scum. That's the crux of it people.

Lynching Canute does not achieve anything. Lynching Petrus does.

It has been proven that it is impossible for the town to lose by lynching Petrus today. Therefore this is the best course of action.

Here's something you should remember: often the simplest explanation is the most true. Here the simple explanation is that Petrus is scum, as Dagrun said. The convoluted third faction theory which makes no sense, is impossible under the rules, and is impossible because of numbers, makes that a ridiculous idea.

I don't really think there is anything more to discuss.

[Pandora]

I don't really think there is anything more to discuss.

You may not think so, but you know you are wrong.

I have given you a viable alternative for today, which would still afford your supposed 'town' victory, and you won't even consider it. You have no argument as to why it wouldn't work, simply because there isn't one. You know that if we followed through with the suggestions mentioned - lynching Cunute, killing me, you 'blocking' me, Carl 'watching' Wary etc, then there would be no reason for me not to die at night, and you and your scum buddies would be exposed.

It's as simple as this:

Lynch Cunute, ensure I'm killed tonight (having ensured there's no way I cannot be) and you still have me dead, and according to you town still wins, but you will have given me a chance to prove myself.

Lynch me and town loses.

Look back at everything I've said (and I'm not really talking to Dragmall here as he refuses to countenance the possibility he may be wrong, because he knows he is) and if there's the merest possibility in your mind that I might be town then there's absolutely no reason not to lynch Cunute and still have me killed.

The entire game comes down to this. You all have to be absolutely certain that I'm scum, and be willing to live with that decision.

[Dragonator]

Here's why it wouldn't work. You kill Canute, so you live. You and your mate Rurik block me, and you convert Wary. This strengthens your position and gets your scummy team closer to winning. Perhaps you even win if there are more of you, but as I noted, I doubt that. Still, it is a much more probable option than your mechanics-breaking third faction idea.

The fact is, Canute has been confirmed, you are scum, that's the end of it. Sorry Petrus, but you lose.

It is impossible for the town to lose by lynching you, we have discussed this. If there are 5 scum left right now, you would have already lost. We could easily lose if we don't lynch you, by your own logic.

Anyway, I'm absolutely certain you're scum, so that's the end of it.

Oh look, another note!

"Dear Petrus, suck a carrot. Love, Lady Dolores"

I love this woman!

[Chromeknight]

Hey wait, what? Rurik is scum now too?

Also, you have a one shot role block that I gave you. You cannot be interfered with, no matter how many scum are left.

Also, why wouldn't wary kill Petrus tonight, regardless, since he's got to figure if he does not, he's a certain lynch?

[Dragonator]

I'm not certain Rurik is scum, but it is a possibility. It is a more likely possibility than the one Petrus wants to test by killing Canute, that there are 5 scum left in some weird 3rd faction.

I would assume that if I am blocked, both of my actions will be blocked, Cranebeinn. That's a risk we shouldn't be taking.

As for Wary not killing Petrus, what if once Petrus has someone else lynched, he tells Wary that he has another scum buddy and that they'll be blocking me and converting him? He'll have no option but to join with the scum then, so he naturally will not kill a team mate. Depending on number,s that leaves the scum in a much better position to win tomorrow.

Basically, it comes down to the fact that not lynching Petrus offers some significant risks, some which we may not even be able to anticipate. Lynching him will not prevent a town win no matter what the situation is, and will hopefully kill the last scum so that we can end this.

Make sense?

[Scubacarrot]

No. I layed out what would happen a few pages back, and had come to the conclusion that that is extremely unlikely.

So you say you'll probably be blocked? Then have Carl Dumbfuck watch you. Seriously, it's as simple as that. It's not that complicated.

I think the above discussion basically sums it up. Dagrun had no reason to lie to Wary, she was 100% certain that Wary would be joining her side.

Dagrun told Wary that Petrus is scum. That's the crux of it people.

Lynching Canute does not achieve anything. Lynching Petrus does.

It has been proven that it is impossible for the town to lose by lynching Petrus today. Therefore this is the best course of action.

Here's something you should remember: often the simplest explanation is the most true. Here the simple explanation is that Petrus is scum, as Dagrun said. The convoluted third faction theory which makes no sense, is impossible under the rules, and is impossible because of numbers, makes that a ridiculous idea.

I don't really think there is anything more to discuss.

Pulling an Occam's razor here? Classic. And it has not been proven that the town has no way to lose after today? Not at all dude. If that was the case, we would not be having this conversation at all, and you know it.

[Dragonator]

And it has not been proven that the town has no way to lose after today? Not at all dude. If that was the case, we would not be having this conversation at all, and you know it.

It has actually, we're having this discussion because you're too dumb to see it. As Canute pointed out earlier, if there were 9 scum earlier on and 7 townies, the townies would have lost right there. It is impossible for there to be 5 scum remaining right now. It is impossible for there to be 4 scum. If there are three scum left, which I also doubt, it is impossible for them to win by lynching Petrus. Easy huh?

Of the two scum factions had to kill each other, then that would break the rules, it's that simple. If the two scum factions can win with each other, that doesn't even make sense for there to be two factions. If all Dagrun had to do was kill me, they could have done that days ago by blocking Sveinn.

We really don't need to be having this discussion. The obvious choice is to lynch the most scummy person, which is Petrus.

[Scubacarrot]

He admitted getting his numbers wrong for that. Do you feel stupid now? You should.

[CMP]

He admitted getting his numbers wrong for that. Do you feel stupid now? You should.

And that despite that I was still right.

[Scubacarrot]

On top of the fact the scum factions of course can't win together, it'd be a far superior option for the scum.

And that despite that I was still right.

Of course not. So right now: 4 scum, 7 townies, most likely? + 2 scum is 6 scum 7 townies on day five.

the other possibility is 5 scum, 6 townies, 7 scum 6 townies on day five, refer to my point above. It's not that hard to remember what's already been said.

If the scum could win together right from the start, why would they not have done that right away? No, we see them actively killing each other (Gerrid-Hervi)(Dagrun needing Dragmall dead).

You know what. I am actually not going to answer this stupid crap. You bring me good questions and concerns. Might be too hard though. Seriously.

[Dragonator]

On top of the fact the scum factions of course can't win together, it'd be a far superior option for the scum.

Except not letting them win together is fundamentally against the rules.

I hope you fell stupid for not reading his analysis properly, his corrected numbers are still right. Perhaps if you bothered reading anything we wouldn't need to keep telling you why you're wrong. Over. And over. And over.

Oh look!

"Dear Snotra, You're so far outside the box you're not even in the game anymore. Love, Lady Dolores"

I think she might be onto something!

[WhiteFang]

I think I will need to take a side, and after very much consideration, I just find the 3rd faction to be very hard to believe and swallow. I am already finding difficult to believe on the 2-full days conversion to be quite crazy, but that does not mean any of the 3rd scum faction theory is false, but I just can't convince myself to believe that there is such a possiblity...

To move things forward and unless a greater force of percuasion take place, and anyway a conviction without my vote has already taken place, thus this is my vote for now.

Vote: Petrus Fire-Starter (Pandora)

[Scubacarrot]

Except not letting them win together is fundamentally against the rules.

I hope you fell stupid for not reading his analysis properly, his corrected numbers are still right. Perhaps if you bothered reading anything we wouldn't need to keep telling you why you're wrong. Over. And over. And over.

Oh look!

"Dear Snotra, You're so far outside the box you're not even in the game anymore. Love, Lady Dolores"

I think she might be onto something!

Nope I have proven way back why it's still in the rules. I am right, you just are annoyed. Look how first you were gloating, now you're just a scared little scummy, kid.

I think I will need to take a side, and after very much consideration, I just find the 3rd faction to be very hard to believe and swallow. I am already finding difficult to believe on the 2-full days conversion to be quite crazy, but that does not mean any of the 3rd scum faction theory is false, but I just can't convince myself to believe that there is such a possiblity...

To move things forward and unless a greater force of percuasion take place, and anyway a conviction without my vote has already taken place, thus this is my vote for now.

Vote: Petrus Fire-Starter (Pandora)

Maybe you should participate next game. Just a suggestion.

[Scouty]

On the two factions of scum, it would put town at a great disadvantage. Not only does town have to go against one team, but some extra sect, too? That's on the borderline of being unfair, I think.

[Scubacarrot]

On the two factions of scum, it would put town at a great disadvantage. Not only does town have to go against one team, but some extra sect, too? That's on the borderline of being unfair, I think.

You can argue the details all you want, but it still fits. I really haven't changed anything since the start of this all. We are fighting against two teams of scum, yet we have clearly seen they had a reason to fight each other as well. Why that was we can argue postgame (of life). Just think.

I will lay it out very clearly once again.

Two teams. Of four scum, most likely. Dagrun lead one, Dragmall lead one. On day two, why was Hervi so focussed on third party? Why did he get Gerrid lynched? And more importantly? Why was there the talk with Dragmall, the change from complete animosity to cooperation?

It explains why we have so many dead scum, why they turned on each other, and also important: What the twist of this whole situation is. It sounds stupid, but let's face it, there is always a twist, and this is the one for this situaton. Dagrun's words are key: Why did she need Dragmall dead? Why was there so much distrust among the scum's members? She had no reason to lie for any of that, while using a scapegoat as an ally makes perfect sense, do you think a serial killer is likely to join you when you are on your own and you are basically forcing him? What I think? Dagrun was left alone. It explains why there was no kill AND no conversion.

Wary is an important factor here. We know Gofraid was probably the vigilante, as he was town, and had clearly a killing action of some sort. Yet I don't think he is a serial killer, at least now, because of the fact he has showed he's clearly following Dragmall in alerting him to Dagrun's talks. There can be two explanations for that: Wary is still the serial killer, he knew and feared that being converted over to Dagrun's said would be far inferior to his current position, so he contacted his allies, with who he can win, to not make that happen. Or Wary is a converted or just scum from the start, with converted being more likely because of the fact he can easily be mistaken for a serial killer or a vigilante.

If there are any LEGIT concerns or holes, I'd be happy to provide the answer if I can.

[Dragonator]

Maybe you should participate next game. Just a suggestion.

Maybe you should be helpful next game. Just a suggestion.

[Scubacarrot]

Maybe you should be helpful next game. Just a suggestion.

If I am wrong, which I can't believe at this point I am. I won't play a mafia for a long time anyway. I'll say this right now. Just raising the stakes: If I am wrong (not about details, duh, but that Dragmall is a scummy scum) I will go back to mafia school.

[Dragonator]

If I am wrong, which I can't believe at this point I am. I won't play a mafia for a long time anyway. I'll say this right now. Just raising the stakes: If I am wrong (not about details, duh, but that Dragmall is a scummy scum) I will go back to mafia school.

You're on snot-face.

[Rick]

I think the above discussion basically sums it up. Dagrun had no reason to lie to Wary, she was 100% certain that Wary would be joining her side.

Dagrun told Wary that Petrus is scum. That's the crux of it people.

You can keep repeating it, but - I've said it a couple of times before - you're much smarter than to believe this yourself. Going along with your story and assuming this two-stage conversion is true, Wary was not (and is not) converted and Dagrun is smart enough to not give her scum mate away like that. She needed insurance so she or her scum mate would not be blocked, because - according to your logic - her scum mate would be completing the conversion or killing someone.

Lynching Canute does not achieve anything. Lynching Petrus does.

You're wrong about lynching Canute not achieving anything. It's been laid out many times before what it will achieve. It will settle this once and for all. You're right about lynching Petrus though. It will achieve that the Servants of Loki win tonight.

Here's something you should remember: often the simplest explanation is the most true. Here the simple explanation is that Petrus is scum, as Dagrun said. The convoluted third faction theory which makes no sense, is impossible under the rules, and is impossible because of numbers, makes that a ridiculous idea.

Again, repeating a point does not make it true. It's all possible under the rules. "A Dagrun said". Are you listening to yourself. You're using the words of a confirmed Servant to substantiate your point.

Here's why it wouldn't work. You kill Canute, so you live. You and your mate Rurik block me, and you convert Wary. This strengthens your position and gets your scummy team closer to winning. Perhaps you even win if there are more of you, but as I noted, I doubt that. Still, it is a much more probable option than your mechanics-breaking third faction idea.

Right, assuming we're scum, you doubt we can win. Let's do this then. And again, it's not a third faction and it's not mechanics-breaking. It. All. Fits. As we've explained a dozen times already. It explains the distrust on the early days. It explains the truce between you and Hervi on Day Two. It explains why you were so suspicious of Canute and Beorn, yet never wanted to act on those suspicions. It explains why you were so interested in finding out who had the remaining actions. When Finn came forward you outed him instead of protecting him. You brought forward Cranebeinn as a potential lynch candidate basing your entire argument on a conversion, instead of allowing him to quietly verify himself, which is something a true Town leader would have done with such an important action.

The fact is, Canute has been confirmed, you are scum, that's the end of it. Sorry Petrus, but you lose.

Confirmed by you, whom we suspect to be scum. And even then, none of you have your affiliation confirmed, because the investigator died ages ago and the Servants made sure he wasted his actions on both nights he was alive.

I would assume that if I am blocked, both of my actions will be blocked, Cranebeinn. That's a risk we shouldn't be taking.

First of all, it's typical that blockers can't block each other, because that would give precedence to one blocker over the other. Second of all, you have an unblockable (ascetic) one-shot block to use tonight.

As for Wary not killing Petrus, what if once Petrus has someone else lynched, he tells Wary that he has another scum buddy and that they'll be blocking me and converting him? He'll have no option but to join with the scum then, so he naturally will not kill a team mate. Depending on number,s that leaves the scum in a much better position to win tomorrow.

Wary wasn't stupid enough to fall for that with Dagrun. "Much better position"... thanks for agreeing with our plan. We can't lose by lynching Canute today and having Petrus killed tonight. We will lose by lynching Petrus today.

Basically, it comes down to the fact that not lynching Petrus offers some significant risks, some which we may not even be able to anticipate. Lynching him will not prevent a town win no matter what the situation is, and will hopefully kill the last scum so that we can end this.

Basically it comes down to the fact that lynching Petrus will cause the Einherjar to lose today, which is entirely predictable. Not lynching him will not prevent a town win no matter what the situation is, and will expose the scum so we can end this over another couple of days.

Make sense?

Make sense?

Of the two scum factions had to kill each other, then that would break the rules, it's that simple. If the two scum factions can win with each other, that doesn't even make sense for there to be two factions. If all Dagrun had to do was kill me, they could have done that days ago by blocking Sveinn.

Surely you wouldn't say having, for example, Mafia usurpers in a game is against the basic rules of the Scum having to outnumber the Town, would you? You didn't have to kill the entire other Scum faction, because there is no other Scum faction. You're all Servants, just under different leadership initially. I'm inclined to think that if there were conversions, they were conversions from one side to the other (Dagrun trying to convert Wary). That would explain the distrust Dagrun was referring to. And, again, it would explain the initial power struggle. So, yes, you need their numbers against the Town, but you also had to get rid of their leader.

Except not letting them win together is fundamentally against the rules.

It isn't true and you know it. Making it bold also doesn't make it true. What are you going to try next? A huge font size like Canute used?

"Dear Snotra, You're so far outside the box you're not even in the game anymore. Love, Lady Dolores"

I think she might be onto something!

I think she might be onto something too. The truth.

On the two factions of scum, it would put town at a great disadvantage. Not only does town have to go against one team, but some extra sect, too? That's on the borderline of being unfair, I think.

Actually, I think it'd balance out nicely, because the two sides to the Servants are battling each other as well as the Einherjar, which is exactly what happened.

[Scubacarrot]

You're on snot-face.

What are we on, exactly? What do I get if I am right?

[Dragonator]

Ahem, that is to say, more mead, for we are manly men! And we're in this lovely Hall of Odin, which seems to have picked up a new ghost.

What's that? Yes Lady Dolores, I know, a total quack.

What are we on, exactly? What do I get if I am right?

If you are right, I'll play in Mafia School. But this discussion isn't really relevant for the game thread so shhhhh.