Zepher Posted December 8, 2012 Posted December 8, 2012 Oh Julia, I think you missed a few. Why don't you relax a bit, you've been working so hard. I'll cook you up something special. Vote: Walter (Waterbrick Down) You're so scaring me in this dream of Matilda's. This is ANOTHER one of my dreams?! Awesome! I read in a book once that you can't die in a dream... so, give it your best shot Scumbos! -Overly Defensive Defense- Outraged defenses are a big scum-tell, in previous dreams. So... you're another one on my watch list.
Tamamono Posted December 8, 2012 Posted December 8, 2012 I said it made me believe that Oscar knew that the Vig or SK was a female character. I then asked if i was reading too much into it or if it was a genuine error. I concluded by saying it was suprising to me that he would let that slip. If you thought he slipped and revealed something about the day killer, why did you out it to everyone? The townie thing to do in that situation would have been to not make a big deal out of it and to allow the day killer to stay hidden as long as possible.
Piratedave84 Posted December 8, 2012 Posted December 8, 2012 Oscar, your calling me out and grilling me I find to be misguided. I never asked to know who the killer was, I was trying to see if I was on the right track with my theory of "the killer is a female" which I find is now apparent is right based on your over reaction to a very simple PM. As far as not voting for Walter; I get the whole wanting to extend the day principle but I feel that if we start to split the vote to much, as is starting to happen, then we will get nowhere! If you thought he slipped and revealed something about the day killer, why did you out it to everyone? The townie thing to do in that situation would have been to not make a big deal out of it and to allow the day killer to stay hidden as long as possible. What if the day killer is scum?
Tamamono Posted December 8, 2012 Posted December 8, 2012 As far as not voting for Walter; I get the whole wanting to extend the day principle but I feel that if we start to split the vote to much, as is starting to happen, then we will get nowhere! Didn't I already say this? What if the day killer is scum? This has been addressed already. Occam's Razor states that the most likely circumstance is the true one - the daykiller is most likely aligned with us.
Hinckley Posted December 8, 2012 Posted December 8, 2012 I never asked to know who the killer was, I was trying to see if I was on the right track with my theory of "the killer is a female" which I find is now apparent is right based on your over reaction to a very simple PM. And what if she is?
Zepher Posted December 8, 2012 Posted December 8, 2012 This has been addressed already. Occam's Razor states that the most likely circumstance is the true one - the daykiller is most likely aligned with us. Tell Occam to keep his or her razors to his or her self. I actually still believe the most likely circumstance is that the day killer is a SK, and the Vig was either blocked, their target was protected, or they chose to not act. But see, I admit that's an ASSUMPTION. Some people still think the day killer is God. So, we really can't be sure of anything, and squashing conversation isn't helpful. It's always important to have different thoughts going on. For example: I personally feel that the Oscar verification story is most likely true, but I would certainly not say a out-right NO to anyone who suggested its a little sketchy, because we don't know for sure. It's most likely that Daisy didn't make up some watch action, and then make up some person with a verification action, just so that people would trust Oscar, but at the same time, it's POSSIBLE. In Mafia everything must be examined. Sometimes the most likely isn't true - what if someone were framed. It is not likely that they WERE framed, but it's still true. Ramble ramble ramble. I read too many books that talk about vigilance and paranoia. Dave still seems really scummy, but not for suggesting the day killer may be scum. His defense and anger towards Oscar is confusing, and MOST importantly, the part that Oscar highlighted makes alarm bells go off. "I don't care WHO the killer is, I just wanted to know if she was female or not, because, you know, I'm writing a report on if killers can be female or not. It's not related to me finding out who the killer is at all." Ping.
Piratedave84 Posted December 8, 2012 Posted December 8, 2012 Outraged defenses are a big scum-tell, in previous dreams. So... you're another one on my watch list. It seems defensive yes; when called out by an analytical player such as Oscar who has probably scrutinized every post I made since confirming, I feel it is essential to be defensive and agressive. And what if she is? Nothing; I was seeking advice from an experienced player who told me to "pay more attention"; when I did I get called out and grilled! Oh well! Investigate me, tonight! You'll see!
Hinckley Posted December 8, 2012 Posted December 8, 2012 Unfortunately for Dave, it wasn't even a slip. I did it on purpose to see if anyone would point it out or come poking. And Dave did. I have not been in contact with the day killer at all. So Scum team, no need to look for a female. Still don't know what gender she is.
Tamamono Posted December 8, 2012 Posted December 8, 2012 Oh well! Investigate me, tonight! You'll see! In my experience, it's never a good sign when people ask to be investigated.
Darkdragon Posted December 8, 2012 Author Posted December 8, 2012 Vote Count Walter (Waterbrick Down) - 7 votes (CallMePie, Shadows, Piratedave84, def, Darth Potato, Bob, Zepher) Jimmy (JimButcher) - 1 vote (Hinckley) Mike (Bob) - 1 vote (fhomess) Katie (Psykater) - 1 vote (Scubacarrot) Oscar (Hinckley) - 2 votes (penalty, penalty) With 22 players remaining, a majority of 12 is required for a conviction. There are up to 30 hours left in the day.
def Posted December 8, 2012 Posted December 8, 2012 Please clarify. Do you still suspect Daisy? Your reasons don't mention that at all so I'm just curious. I see you want it to be clear you want Walter to be lynched, but the rest is just testing God? I didn't see the circumstances but I thought it had to do with your vote formatting. Could you just kick a pigeon to God to clarify instead of testing her? I do still have issue with Daisy (as I've said today). Her clearing you doesn't make her town, and her obstinate attitude doesn't either. I don't agree with your theory about the glasses having to do with a one-time watcher ability, because I was specifically told it would find her "job," and lunch doesn't sound like a job to me. As for the voting, God has enough to deal with without me sending messages asking for clarification. At this point, God should only be contacting people privately to give action results, not to help people out one on one.
Hinckley Posted December 8, 2012 Posted December 8, 2012 Daisy is not the one who cleared me. That was Fozzie Bear.
Hinckley Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 Someone made this helpful analysis of yesterday's lie detector events. I think it gives us some interesting insight.
def Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 Daisy is not the one who cleared me. That was Fozzie Bear. Noted. Muppets
Hinckley Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 Noted. Muppets I'm watching the series on DVD. Final Vote Tally Billie (badboytje88) - 1 vote (def) Trisha (TrumpetKing67) - 14 votes (Hinckley, PsyKater, zakura, JackJonespaw, Shadows, Tamamono, PirateDave84, TheBoyWonder, badboytje88, JimButcher, iamded, CallMePie, WaterBrick Down, Cecilie) Penny (VolcanicPanik) - 1 vote (Zepher) Daisy (Scuba) - 3 votes (Bob, Captain Genaro, Dannylonglegs) Walter (Waterbrick Down) - 1 vote (fhomess) Non-Voters - DarthPotato, TrumpetKing67, VolcanicPanik, Dragonator, Scubacarrot I suck at vote analysis, but let's check it out. I'll try my hand at it here in a bit.
def Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 I think it gives us some interesting insight. It does. I think the scum would assume that it was true at first. Why? Because it's risky not to. Shadell would claim anyway, since he knows he would be statistically safe, but other scum would not want to do it if they don't have to. (and some scum would make a huge deal trying to show how impossible it was to discourage it all together) And I think they would not want to say it using both "I'm innocent" or "I'm town," since they have no experience with how a lie detector role works.
iamded Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 But another theorie came to my mind: if if wouls be the scum killer, then today's kill would have been a clever move, wouldn't it? Oscar claims that killing Jane would be very townie or good. Then the killer kills jane. Hooray, he must be pro-town. Hooray, the scumkill was blocked then last night. Hooray, Walter must be the scumkiller because he was blocked (?) last night. While your confused flailing is worthy of alert, you make this valid point. Something to consider, that the day killer could be a Serial Killer rather than a Vigilante, following an alleged confirmed Townie's advice to gain trust. Already a lot of people are assuming the day killer is the Vigilante. I think Dave's reaction to the hedgehog's test is alright. Perhaps he thought the killer was against us – scum or neutral. If Oscar had any clue as to the killer's identity, when the killer could be scum or Serial, then it explains why Dave would want to know why Oscar wasn't sharing this. At least, that's what I got from that. Anyway, I've stated my reasons for why I'd vote for Walter, and there's still 5 more votes before a conviction, so I'll go ahead and slap my vote down now. Vote: Walter (Waterbrick Down) I'm feelin' good about this one. Walter, if you are actually town, do pass on your lunch to someone trusted as has been mentioned. If you turn up town, then if someone protected another last night, I think you've a good reason to trust that person as it's likely they were targeted by scum and therefore town. Alternately, be on the lookout for people who appeared very town on Day 1, as a conversion would be a strong possibility. Again, only if Walter turns out town.
Dannylonglegs Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 I'm sorry I've been rather silent today. Studying practicing for Horse Finals Races has been tedious. Oscar, your calling me out and grilling me I find to be misguided. I never asked to know who the killer was, I was trying to see if I was on the right track with my theory of "the killer is a female" which I find is now apparent is right based on your over reaction to a very simple PM. As far as not voting for Walter; I get the whole wanting to extend the day principle but I feel that if we start to split the vote to much, as is starting to happen, then we will get nowhere! What if the day killer is scum? A. There is no need at this time to even confirm that, even if you're Town and you think the killer's scum. There's nothing you as an individual could even do about it in that case. If you think that the day-killer's scum, you debate it in the day thread. You don't even need to know the real identity at that point. It shouldn't change anything. I gotta say, your search for the killer's name is rather suspicious. (devils advocate though, Would the scum team advise such an obvious scum move, or allow it?) B. Your argument that the killer is scum trying to look like scum is kind of stretching it. The only way that such a strategy would be implemented is if the group is comprised of relatively inexperienced players. The scum would weigh the benefits of killing Jane and Walter (Town in this hypothetical) and appearing Town over the benefits of killing Hinkley, who has already been confirmed as a Townie and who seems to have contact with at least one individual who possesses a night action, or someone else who seems to be a strong leader for the Town, and probably still Walter, or whomever else seems to be a target for the lynch, and not appearing Town. They have no strong incentive to hide their presence, and the confusion caused is not enough to seriously hinder us. It seems much more likely that the Killer's Town, which again begs the question, why you tried to figure out. 12 people haven't even voted yet. Thus keeping the day open. But I think it's about time I cast my vote. Obvious;y, I'll Vote: Walter (Waterbrick Down) There's no reason not to test the night action results. Oscar, that lie detector data is really useful! I agree that it's likely many scum did not claim out of fear, so it's good to know who didn't, and quite corroborating that Walter is one of them. It'll be more useful once we find out that Walter is indeed scum, as we suspect. A little note though, I claimed both innocent and Town.
Tamamono Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 I still don't get why my vote hasn't gone through. Maybe if I Vote: Walter (Waterbrick Down) again? Someone made this helpful analysis of yesterday's lie detector events. *snip* I think it gives us some interesting insight. Hmm, that is interesting. As Fred said, the scum had no reason not to believe it, so that means that those who were reluctant to claim/didn't claim are likely to be scum. Whoever made the chart does make a good point that some people weren't around earlier, but I think Katie especially deserves a suspicious eye - she only claimed once the lie detector was proven fake. Daisy's erratic claiming yesterday does send up some red flags, actually, although I'd think claiming to be "totally scum" falls under things scum wouldn't want to claim. Maybe she's a serial killer...? As for Billie, her claim seems fine; although it wasn't "I'm innocent", it still obviously had that intention, and you know how Billie is.
Piratedave84 Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 Ahem! I NEVER ASKED FOR THE NAME! Where are you all getting this! Lord almighty! Does anyone not feel that finding out who or at least narrowing down who the killer is help us in any way shape or form? Who is to say that this killer is helping town? Her 2 kills of townies are probably pure luck, my impression is that her kills were targeted towards unhelpful silent players. Believe what you will; I am not scum, I am merely here to help and I thought my voicing my observations would do just that. Oscar has stopped talking to me after I tried to sort things out. For me that says a lot! Who is to say Fozzie Bear is town? Who is to say Oscar is town? Who is to say that what Oscar is claiming is in fact not a machination to confuse us!? I will not be back here until later, in the meantime please consider everything that has been said. Do you really think Oscar let that "her" slip intentionally? Please! Then when I called him on it he went apeshit on me!
Waterbrick Down Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 I tend to agree that it doesn't much matter if Walter was blocked straight or blocked and protected. Either way, he was blocked. I'm very curious if there's another blocker out there who blocked someone else, but at this point, they seem to be keeping quiet about it or have no one they trust enough to share that with. If you're out there and a town blocker, I think you owe it to the town to let us know who you blocked in some way as that would be another viable candidate under the same criteria that puts the target on Walter. Walter, am I correct that you are now claiming vanilla? You seem to be implying that. As for my vote, I want to throw out this one: Vote Mike (Bob) The primary reasoning for this is that I don't like the fact that he gave his lunch to Oscar on day 1 with no reason and despite being called out on it earlier in the day, he's failed to respond to it satisfactorily. He's also been rather terse with several comments and not entirely paying attention. Yes I am a vanilla, I still have my lunch though. Honestly I wish I could provide more insight, I've passed most of my concrete thoughts on to the hedgehog and the rest is down to gut feelings. I would like to combat the assumption that the probability of a blocking and a protection are the same however. I think we all have to admit we metagame to some extent, it's merely part of our nature. That being said a block made early on is generally metagame-free as people's jobs are selected at random, a protection however is far from that. Protections are based upon metagaming whom the scum would want to take out first. I.e. do they go for the highly experienced analytical individuals who are likely to be the target of quite a few actions, or do they protect one of the lesser known personages as they are likely to be undisturbed by other people during the night. The protector has to get into the mind of the scum and figure out who would make the best target, a decision governed more by reason and postulation than a random shot in the dark and thus more likely to succeed. That is what I hope and for the moment can only contemplate happened last night. But I understand you need to cover your bases and if my death grants more confidence in the person that was protected last night than so be it. Looking at the rest of the conversation that has gone on since I had to leave yestereday, Katie and Dave stick out the most to me, mainly Katie for playing the confusion card and Dave for his defensive/aggressive attitude, both of which I was definitely not expecting (based mainly upon metagaming reasons).
Captain Genaro Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 Lady Dolores is a ghost. She isn't playing. If Walter was watched, we would've seen who targeted him. Don't infer things, please. Opps . Sorry Oscar, I thought that Lady Dolores was an alias for other people here. Am I correct to assume that your Muppets are aliases for other players? Also, thank you for your chart. I agree that it can and will be useful but I would'nt rule people to be townie based solely off their position on that chart. It is possible that some smarter scum thought that they could claim town early and not get caught because the investigator would focus on people with weird claims or who claimed late. The day is coming to an end and I need to vote. While I still have my doubts about Daisy for the reasons I stated yesterday, I find the case against Walter to be very compelling and in a worst case scenario, we would lose a vanilla townie. Not that I'm advocating for this, but I do believe that we will gain more than we will lose by lynching Oscar. Vote: Walter (Waterbrick Down). Now off to study Hamlet and Calculus (not at the same time). Yippy . Don't worry, I'll be back before the day is over.
Dragonator Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 Neigh! My apologies I seem to have slept in quite late. We've had an interesting day, I'm glad we made progress with the lunch. One question I have is why did certain people forget theirs? Does that mean anything? Oscar do you have any idea why you forgot yours? I myself have an ice cream sandwich, which is consistent with the previously mentioned analysis. Continuing on, I think it is clear that Walter needs to go. The lack of a scummy kill last night combined with his being blocked is hard to see as mere coincidence. Therefore I am most willing to Vote: Walter (Waterbrick Down). I'm glad we've had such an early breakthrough, let's take down these horse-killing scum quickly please! I am looking forward to enjoying the lovely grassy fields of yonder paddock once this whole mess is cleaned up. Amy you'll keep the bees away from me, right?
iamded Posted December 9, 2012 Posted December 9, 2012 I still don't get why my vote hasn't gone through. Maybe if I Vote: Walter (Waterbrick Down) again? Hmm. It's possible there's a vote thief somewhere out there. I am looking forward to enjoying the lovely grassy fields of yonder paddock once this whole mess is cleaned up. Amy you'll keep the bees away from me, right? Of course I will, you handsome stallion you! Even if I am terrified of bees...
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