Heartlake Heartbreak - Day Three: Don't Ask Me Why

[Dannylonglegs]

Alright look. What do we know about Shadell?

She is immune to blocks.

We know that empirically as two separate sides agree on that fact, including the jailkeeper, who we know is town as he or she block/protected Walter the previous night. She only successfully protected Shadell last night, meaning Shadell can indeed ignore blocks. This likely means Shadell can avoid other potentially negative Town actions, which could potentially encompass Hiding, and potentially vig-killing. What does she claim that cannot be confirmed (or could be with allot of effort and wasted action)?

She claims to be bullet proof once. (this is testable, but not in a good way.)

She claims to be capable of investigating an individual to determine whether said individual is allied with a cult or not.

She claims she investigated the hider who was hiding behind another individual

She claims to have investigated that individual the following night upon learning that said individual claimed day-investigator and investigated Matilda (not Shadell) and got a Scum result.

These are her claims. Now, let's analyze. What can she be?

She cannot be a Cult Leader.

Even if the actual "Cult Leader Hunter" was already killed, therefore enabling Shadell to claim without fear of being taken down by the actual Hunter (how would she know he was dead? The only killings have been the Lynches and those of the day-killer), I refuse to believe that this world is so unfair as to allow for an Unblockable, Unkillable, Previously Unheard of, Converting Cult Leader. Look at that long line of adjectives and ask yourself if that's possible? If there's a Cult Leader, the it sure as hell isn't Unblockable. I'd bet this game on it. I'd be very annoyed if the game was so unbalanced that we had one of those.

Therefore, she is not a Cult Leader.

She is not the vig, a conventional investigator, a protector, or any other conventional Town role. It's kind of obvious why she's not one of these.

She is not the scum killer. Did I mention how she wasn't blocked last night? Well, apparently, she wasn't successfully blocked last night. And there wasn't a kill last night. Ergo, she's not the scum killer.

She's not a Culty mook. I don't think they have actions or are unblockable.

Having established what she is not, let's think of what she could be.

She could be a Cultist Hunter. You could take her role claim as legitimate.

She could be the Scum Blocker, Scum Role-Investigator, Scum Framer or another member if the scum that is for some reason unblockable. I doubt he could be the scum investigator if they have one, because then, assuming he's not totally lying about investigating the hider, which he might be, then it would be unfair for the hider not to be able to hide from him. She could be a framer, who framed Matilda, but I'd be surprised and we'll find out tomorrow anyways.

And, finally, She could be the Scum Godfather, as always. Obviously she is not afraid to be investigator. That means, she knows she'll show up Town. Godfathers (often, but not always) show up Town under investigation. Furthermore, Godfathers are occasionally bulletproof as well, so that matches up as well. What doesn't match up is the fact that she is unblockable. What role could the Godfather also have that allows for an unblockable action? Role-Investigator could work. But assuming he's not lying about finding the Hider, that would make no sense. Assuming he is lying about investigating the Hider, how'd he figure out it was the hider? Could he be some sort of Scum protector instead of investigator on top of that? How powerful is this hypothetical Godfather? If you think he could be Godfather, then explain how.

Having established he is either (and tell me if I'm wrong here)

A. a Scum with an unblockable role (can be investigated)

B. a Godfather with an unblockable role and a bulletproof vest (Way OP, but at least believable compared to that in a Cult Leader)

C. a Cult Hunter with an almost unstoppable but narrowly focused investigation ability.

Which is the most likely?

I think it's C, but I don't care if you believe me.

What do we have to lose by keeping him alive long enough to investigate Oscar?

Hypothetical A.

A. He's Scum

We Lynch him: She dies and pops up Scum! Whoo hoo, we did it! We killed the Manipulative bastard!

We let him live today: She does whatever she does with that unblockable action, presumably to Oscar. He investigates Oscar? Oscar's already claimed and stuff. He kills Oscar? Nope. He's not the killer and apparently Oscar's got a vest. He converts Oscar? When we day investigate Oscar tomorrow we'll see what happened and Lynch Shadell or something.

B. He's the actual Cult Hunter and his investigation is the only one that can reveal Cult membership

We Lynch him: We get overwhelmed by the Cult

We let him live today: He investigates Oscar and clears him as the Town Jesus, or investigates Oscar and it kills him because he was the Cult Leader or a Cult Member or something. (I think Cult Mooks would show up under our investigation, so I doubt Oscar is a Mook. I doubt he's a Cultist altogether. Has anyone flavor copped him?)

So, given these options, which would you choose?

[Scubacarrot]

You are assuming Shadell is vital. Newsflash, this is Mafia, not a surgical operation. If we kill one person, even if that person has a powerful role, we haven't lost. Not at all. It would give us leads, if anything. Shadell hasn't exactly been very active looking for the cult outside of her action, as far as I have noticed, anyways. Assuming what's she's saying is true, which it is most certainly not. Plus you are forgetting the most obvious problem with letting Shadell live: What's stopping her from claiming anything she likes tomorrow? Are we supposed to trust a Buchi if we don't lynch her? I don't think so.

Because I just disproved your most important point. My vote is staying where it belongs.

[TheBoyWonder]

I want to hear from Yoda. I think we've found a more convincing lynch than Shadell/Oscar.

Name and shame Yoda.

[Scubacarrot]

I do not agree with a more convincing lynch than Shadell. Buchi. But, Dave, I think you can bring forward Yoda's name. You want the answers from him/her in public anyway.

[Dannylonglegs]

You are assuming Shadell is vital. Newsflash, this is Mafia, not a surgical operation. If we kill one person, even if that person has a powerful role, we haven't lost. Not at all. It would give us leads, if anything. Shadell hasn't exactly been very active looking for the cult outside of her action, as far as I have noticed, anyways. Assuming what's she's saying is true, which it is most certainly not. Plus you are forgetting the most obvious problem with letting Shadell live: What's stopping her from claiming anything she likes tomorrow? Are we supposed to trust a Buchi if we don't lynch her? I don't think so.

Because I just disproved your most important point. My vote is staying where it belongs.

What's to stop her?

He already stated that if Oscar was investigated, and he was a Cult Leader, he'd be dead. Anything else Shadell could say would be cause for Lynching her.

Also, explain what else Shadell could be? Considering she's unblockable?

[Scubacarrot]

.

What would you do if we don't lynch either of them, Shadell says she targets Oscar, and she says: Town result?

A freakin' liar? In all seriousness: Scum. Most likely. This claim is false, I am sure, in what capacity? Not sure. Does her role matter? No.

[Piratedave84]

I do not agree with a more convincing lynch than Shadell. Buchi. But, Dave, I think you can bring forward Yoda's name. You want the answers from him/her in public anyway.

There is also a valid theory that Yoda was merely using his lunch on Oscar and if that is the case, then his coming out and claiming publicly to be Yoda would sort of vindicate him for the time being.

This would however not explain the Matilda-exclusive conversation.

I'll give Yoda a few hours

[TheBoyWonder]

If you don't name him, why would he come out in public?

[Dannylonglegs]

What would you do if we don't lynch either of them, Shadell says she targets Oscar, and she says: Town result?

A freakin' liar? In all seriousness: Scum. Most likely. This claim is false, I am sure, in what capacity? Not sure. Does her role matter? No.

You're acting obstinately close-minded about this. I know how good a liar Shadell is. She's an excellent liar. She's the bet scum I've had the pleasure of scumming with. I don't know what we'll do in the likely situation that Shadell clears Oscar as Town. We'd probably investigate Oscar again, or Shadell, which would be a waste.

It matters allot. If we can rule out certain roles, then we can decide whether the boy who cried wolf is a wolf hunter or not. OK? If we can establish that he can't be A or B or C out of ABC and D, then we can firmly establish he is D. What could he be in addition to godfather? If you can think of something that makes sense, then we can form a plan, but until there is a well thought out possible alternative to Shadell's claim, then I have to take it into consideration when I think of for whom I'll vote. I'll agree that it's more likley then not that Shadell's lying if anything but his claim makes sense. But who's ever heard of a kill-proof, investigation-proof Godfather with a role that prevents him from being blocked?

What is his role?

[Cecilie]

Ok, I know I said earlier that I thought the best course of action was to let Shadell live another day to test her claim, but after a lot of thinking, I'm beginning to change my mind about that. Here are my reasons:

- Why would she not bring out the information about Matilda earlier?

- Let's face it. The cult theory is really far out there. If there's both a scum team and a growing cult, I think we are royally ducked no matter what Shadell does (think about the numbers for a minute. We've lynched one scum, and hopefully killed another. If there's a cult, they've probably converted two people already, one each night. Making the total number of baddies the same as we started out with. Those are not good odds, even though we've done well so far, and there has apparently not been a scum kill).

- There seems to be a lot of actions on town's side, in addition to all the lunches. An unblockable bulletproof scum godfather could be a way to balance that out.

Then there's Danny's question. What is Shadell's true role? I think only Shadell whatever scum buddies she may have can answer that, but maybe it has something to do with the lack of kills? Maybe the scum's win condition isn't as simple as outnumbering the town? Maybe that's why Shadell is so desperately looking for specific people? Maybe her role is to find certain someones the scum need to kill? What if the scum team has a limited number of kills? Am I making any sense at all here? Could there be some truth to this at all?

I think we need to lynch Shadell to get answers. I refuse to believe we are screwed over if she dies. I think she's using that to create fear among us. I don't like to be threatened. What she's basically doing is threatening us. If she dies, we lose. That's a threat.

So with that, I will Vote: Shadell (Shadows)

If anyone can present a compelling argument why she really needs to live, I'd love to hear it.

[Bob]

Vote: Shadell (Shadows)

Based on Dansmith's complete loyalty and blind faith towards her, I'm inclined to believe that perhaps he is forced to defend her based on some odd requirement stemming from his role.

Depending on the outcome of this lynch, I'll know whether or not Dansmith is a certain target for lynching tomorrow.

[Hinckley]

Yoda has told me that he used his lunch on me and saw that I had no object. End of mystery.

Dansmith, I'll tell you what I told someone else who was worried about the case against Shadell, in private:

I have no Action. I'm bulletproof but vanilla.

I don't know what Shadell is up to or what his real role is but he said all that stuff about thinking it was important to find the day killer and he's accusing me of being the Cult Leader after I've been investigated twice. Then he insists that he's the only way to find the cult and that other investigators would get a Town result. That's just stupid. If it's true, then God is in way over her head. The other investigators should get neutral to clue them in that something is wrong.

If I was a Cult member, I wouldn't have a Town win condition, therefore, I wouldn't keep coming up as Town in investigations. I don't know what damage Shadell could cause if he spent one more night in the game but I don't want to find out either. Why on Earth would we have two bulletproof Townies?

He's lying. That's why we shouldn't trust him. We get it out of the way now or the questions continue tomorrow. I won't be dead so he'll say "Well, then I need to keep searching to find the real Cult Leader!" And then when Matilda is Scum he'll try to take credit for it, which it really was Bunsen and Beeker who found Matilda out.

He's lying.

And then:

Godfathers can't be investigated. Maybe because of all the lunches, the Scum has a balancing role that can't be blocked. I don't know. He's lying either way. If he's not lying, than he sucks at telling the truth.

Using "Cult" is a common Scum tool to cause fear and confusion. If we lynch Shadell we will get a solid answer to if there is a Cult or not. We will end this confusion. Lynching Shadell could lead directly to my death, but I don't care. I'd rather die than let the Scum use an imaginary Cult to keep the Town confused for the rest of the game.

People are theorizing that I was targeted last night for a kill. I would know if the vest was hit. I asked God. So, unless I was protected, I don't think that's possible.

There's a nurse out there, I'm assuming then that there's a doctor. If not, then the nurse is lying.

[Scubacarrot]

You're acting obstinately close-minded about this. I know how good a liar Shadell is. She's an excellent liar. She's the bet scum I've had the pleasure of scumming with. I don't know what we'll do in the likely situation that Shadell clears Oscar as Town. We'd probably investigate Oscar again, or Shadell, which would be a waste.

It matters allot. If we can rule out certain roles, then we can decide whether the boy who cried wolf is a wolf hunter or not. OK? If we can establish that he can't be A or B or C out of ABC and D, then we can firmly establish he is D. What could he be in addition to godfather? If you can think of something that makes sense, then we can form a plan, but until there is a well thought out possible alternative to Shadell's claim, then I have to take it into consideration when I think of for whom I'll vote. I'll agree that it's more likley then not that Shadell's lying if anything but his claim makes sense. But who's ever heard of a kill-proof, investigation-proof Godfather with a role that prevents him from being blocked?

What is his role?

Look, I'm not closed-minded, because I did read through all the megablocks neccasary to make it work. It's stupid. I find it odd that you are so sure you are right, honestly.

Honestly, I've never heard of an unblockable thing before, so this is all new to me. Something I learned a long time ago: New things usually suck.

[fhomess]

Alright look. What do we know about Shadell?

She is immune to blocks.

We know that empirically as two separate sides agree on that fact, including the jailkeeper, who we know is town as he or she block/protected Walter the previous night. She only successfully protected Shadell last night, meaning Shadell can indeed ignore blocks. This likely means Shadell can avoid other potentially negative Town actions, which could potentially encompass Hiding, and potentially vig-killing. What does she claim that cannot be confirmed (or could be with allot of effort and wasted action)?

I think we can agree that she is immune to blocks based on what we know. Hiding isn't potentially negative for town. The hider clears everyone they hide behind, and convicts anyone they hide behind resulting in death (usually helps if they tell someone this). Unblockable has nothing to do with vig-killing. That's your next bullet point.

She claims to be bullet proof once. (this is testable, but not in a good way.)

We can't confirm this without wasting a vig kill. I don't particularly care if it's true or not, but claiming bulletproof is a way to manipulate any killing roles that might exist. Maybe she's trying to avoid a vig kill. Maybe she's trying to avoid being killed by scum (of course, there's no need for a townie to want to avoid being the target of the scum kill if they believe that scum kill will be unsuccessful - you want it in that case!). Maybe she's trying to avoid a serial killer. Or maybe she has been told that there's a particular target that can bypass her bulletproof vest, but they don't know that. In all of these cases, why claim just a single shot bulletproof? TO put us at ease that she's really not as all-powerful as her full claim suggests.

She claims to be capable of investigating an individual to determine whether said individual is allied with a cult or not.

This is pretty much unconfirmable until she finds a cult leader. This is a manipulative claim, too. It's designed to strike fear into the weakhearted who don't have the stomach for the hard work of finding scum. The idea that there's a cult out there who is recruiting people to them is scary to townies, as it should be, but those of us who panic over such news need to respect the idea that we can not possibly be left with just a single weapon against said cult. While Shadell hasn't explicitly stated that is the case, she's is emphasizing the idea that she's our only hope. She's not. We have other ways of finding them if she dies and was telling the truth. At the very least, her death would give us clarity on whether or not we really are up against a cult.

She claims she investigated the hider who was hiding behind another individual

This is important because this is not how a hider is supposed to work. A hider is supposed to be untargetable while hiding. Shadell claims that her skill allows her to get past the hiding. TO WHAT EFFECT? If she's looking for a cult leader, there's no reason for her to have a special ability to find the hider. It's completely unneccesary. There is no reason for her to have this skill unless... the cult leader can also hide. Anyone think that's likely?

In addition, she claims to have gotten a Town result on the hider. This doesn't make any sense either. Why would she not simply get a "not-cult leader" result? She's getting more information than she should.

Put all this together... you've got a picture of someone trying to scare us into keeping her alive for one more night. These are fear tactics and a ridiculous role claim. However, most importantly, there's NO WAY to confirm any of her story without lynching her or her proving to us there's a cult leader by finding that person. I'm not prepared to let her run free while we wait for that to potentially never happen. We lynch her now, we know for sure.

[Dannylonglegs]

Now of all days, let's slow this vote down to allow for talk.

[Cecilie]

Now of all days, let's slow this vote down to allow for talk.

Did you read the day opening? The day will last a full 72 hours...

[Dannylonglegs]

Did you read the day opening? The day will last a full 72 hours...

Oh, shoot, I missed that! Yay!

[Dannylonglegs]

Alright. I've decided. Shadell is lying. Our win condition would be different if there was a cult. I can't believe I've been so dense! God, Shadell, you really are as Magnificent a bastard as I've always known you to be. Vote: Shadell (Shadows)

Bloody Hell!

I guess that makes her an OP Godfather? Whatever. I'm done.

[def]

In light of the discussion today, I will vote for Shadell. For the most part, I think his story is plausible, and well within the zaniness that occurs in a place like EB Heartlake. It's that Oscar wants to bet his life he is right, and I think that's worth going with.

Vote: Shadell (Shadows)

[PsyKater]

Hmmm, I am still torn between Shadell and Oscar. I think at least one of them is lying pr hiding something. While Shadells story / claim seems to be inherantly consistant, there are still some points that are weird. The whole story itself is one point. The hider being able to watch another.

On the other hand Oscar's fear is somehow new and surprising. And that he and Daisy insist on lynching Shadell is a really scummy move. But there are still two investogator results on him...

I found Cece's conclusion most convincing. So, I will vote: Shadell (Shadows) now.

[Tamamono]

Alright, here I am, now let's see if I can sift through all this chatter.

Consider this: Shadell is the Godfather. He can't be blocked or killed. That's the Scum balance. Whatever he actually is doing, he ran into Beeker along the way. Beeker and Bunsen get rolled in and they investigate Matilda, because she showed up targeting Bunsen. What else would Shadell do at that point? Try to defend another Scum? No, he'd have to meatshield Matilda. To metagame: why does he deny he does this when he just did it to Amy in Matilda's dream called The Forest II. Remember that dream? You were a dog.

Actually, that sounds rather plausible, as we do seem to have a lot of actions. I seem to remember an egyptian dream in which the godfather was untouchable as well... I don't get where Beeker comes in, though. Since he's the hider, he can't be targeted, right? Did Shadell target Beeker or am I mixed up here?

Tbh, I'm still really lost. Just for clarification, is this how it went down:

1. Shadell investigates Beeker and gets "not cult" but gets that Beeker was hiding behind someone

2. Shadell investigates Bunsen and gets "not cult" yet somehow finds Matilda?

3. Matilda claims to be a watcher who watched Bunsen

4. Bunsen checks out Matilda and gets a scum result

?

Don't call the Governor dumb. He's doing what he thinks is right.

Wait, there's a governer? Since when?

If the Town decides to lynch Shadell, which they haven't even started to do yet, and she comes up Town in the morning, then we know the Cult is real. At that point, you'll know I'm Cult Leader. Lynch me at that point. I'll gladly volunteer for the lynch and spend my last 72 hours trying to help the Town. If the Town decides to lynch Shadows and you govern it, we're right back where we started. We'll know nothing. I won't be dead because I'm not a cult member, I can guarantee you that. And Shadell will have more confusing things to say about why I didn't die. Let the Town get their answers if they want them. We'll only progress if we get the answers we need.

This is what makes me most uneasy about this situation. Oscar, I've made it pretty clear that Shadell is as obviously independent as it gets; why can't there be a townie with a vest, an independent with a vest, and a cult leader with a vest? I've experimented with dream setups and foun that "big three" vests seem to work fairly well. Why would you offer to be lynched? If you're town, you know you're town and should not be offering to be lynched, especially when there is nothing to 'confirm' you as CL other than the claim that there can't be more than two vests. Now, admittedly, if Shadell flips town, then yeah, there's a fairly good chance that you're the CL, but why would you offer to be lynched still?

However, at the same time, yeah, why wouldn't Shadell bring forward Matilda earlier? He did get some sort of damning result on her, yes? Did he tell any of you? Shadell, did you tell anyone about your result on Matilda early on in the day?

We only have two votes at this point, so it's probably too early to discuss, but don't fall for Shadell's lies just because you are friends and she's charismatic. That's how sociopaths ruin people's lives. They wouldn't be able to if they didn't have the skills to get an in with you.

This is one thing that makes me wary of Shadell - she never seems to be on the defensive, even when she is, and every time she replies to you (or anyone else, for that matter), she seems to make perfect sense... even when she doesn't.

I'm the one not making sense at this point.

[Hinckley]

Oscar, I've made it pretty clear that Shadell is as obviously independent as it gets; why can't there be a townie with a vest, an independent with a vest, and a cult leader with a vest?

Why would you offer to be lynched? If you're town, you know you're town and should not be offering to be lynched, especially when there is nothing to 'confirm' you as CL other than the claim that there can't be more than two vests. Now, admittedly, if Shadell flips town, then yeah, there's a fairly good chance that you're the CL, but why would you offer to be lynched still?

This is one thing that makes me wary of Shadell - she never seems to be on the defensive, even when she is, and every time she replies to you (or anyone else,

I'm on my phone, hedgehogs have phones, so forgive the crude structure of my reply.

Your order of events is somewhat mixed up. I thought I made a good summary for people to mor easily follow along.

3 vests: what about the Scum? Why is there only Town, neutral and cult in your scenario? We know there's Scum. We killed one.

Why'd I offer myself to be lynched? My dead Town corpse will prove the non-existence of a Cult as much as Shadell's would. She thinks I'm the cult leader but doesn't want to vote for me in case I'm important for the Town? I can easily pass my info to Rowlf and the Town still has what it needs to win. My death in the case if me being lynched clears the Town of any confusion that there's a cult.

Shadell not being defensive? Are we reading the same responses? All those unnecessary insults and metagaming? Well-worded and convincing lies are still lies. Check my points again. There are too many answers she's given that are heavily suspicious. Why did she really want to find the day killer? What is the nonsense about the regular investigators getting Town results on Cult members. Are these the things that sound reasonable to you?

Instead of taking his case to us here, Shadell is working on the Governor in private. How's that for Scummy? Or at least anti-Town?

Honestly, the death of either of us should provide answers the Town needs to clear this mess up. Why, then, is Shadell unwilling to consider voting for me? Does the confusion she's trying to spread only work when I'm alive?

[Piratedave84]

This is all really messed up; I trust Oscar more than Shadell an believe Shadell to be full of ... Manure!!

I choose to:

vote: Shadell (Shadows)

[Captain Genaro]

I used my lunch on Oscar last night and saw that someone else had targetted him, for the time being we shall call this person "Yoda" (because we loooove code names )

I turns out that Yoda was out and about targetting Oscar, I asked Yoda in private why he had targetted Oscar and it was quite a while before I got an answer (most likely seeking advice from his scum buddies); the answer was, at the time, satisfactory.

Then I found out that Yoda had in fact been in communication with Matilda, only Matilda since this ordeal began, and when asked about it, no answer was provided.

We know we had a scum result on Matilda from an investigation, based on this I can only assume that Yoda targetted Oscar for assassination.

Since these events, we have found out that Oscar was in fact bulletproof and so this to me explains the lack of kill last night.

Yoda, do you care to explain why you:

1) Targetted Oscar? (you told me in private, so if you got nothing to hide, say it here)

2) Failed to explain to both myself and another person why you were in contact with Matilda, only scummy Matilda.

Your play!

I believe that I am the person that you are referring to as "Yoda."

To answer your questions.

1) First, I needed to use my lunch before something happened to it or me. Second, I needed to know if Oscar is trustworthy. I know that he led the crusade against Walter but it could simply be an attempt to prove his loyalty by sacrificing a member of the scum (meat shield).

That's exactly what I told you in our private conversation.

2) Where the heck did you get the idea that I was talking with Matilda? Whoever told you that is full of garbage and I for one would like to know a name. Also, please correct me if I'm wrong but I do not believe that you asked me about any contact with Matilda.

3) If you take a moment to look at my history, you will see that I typically go about my work in the morning and don't have a chance to join the conversatation until later, after spending an hour or so catching up. I believe that you sent me your message in the morning and I did not reply until later, which is normal for me.

Moving on to Shadell's lynch.

I have found this entire situation to be extremely confusing but at the same time, I think that I have figured out enough to make an informed vote for Shadell.

Shadell's version of the cult leader seems too much overly powered. I doubt that God would put us in a position where we only had one chance of stopping the cult (which would be Shadell) while the cult leader could run around and convert people without any fear of being blocked, killed, or investigated (save by Shadell). I know that some people are advocating for us to put off Shadell's lynch until tomorrow and have an investigator check her out tonight. Not only does this seem like a chance for someone to trap and kill our investgator, but I'm also sure that Shadell could come up with some explanation if she had an unfavorable report come tomorrow. This is why I Vote: Shadell (Shadows).

[Darkdragon]

Vote Count

Shadell (Shadows) - 12 votes (Hinckley, Scubacarrot, fhomess, CallMePie, badboytje88, Cecilie, Bob, Dannylonglegs, def, PsyKater, Piratedave84, Captain Genaro)

With 20 players remaining, a majority of 11 is required for a conviction.

There are 29.5 hours left in the day.