How well are LEGO Lord of the Rings / Hobbit selling? Speculate here

[Blakstone]

I think it would be great to move discussion of how well the LEGO Lord of the Rings and Hobbits sets from the "LotR & Hobbit 2013" thread to this one.

I frequent various Walmart and Target stores in my area. Some of the stores often have lots of these sets on the shelves while others have empty space where these sets use to be. That could mean that sells vary dramatically depending on the store you check. Or maybe some stores just don't reorder as quickly as others.

How about the rest of you? What are your thoughts?

[-Carson Haupt-]

Well, I sure buy them!

[Bobsy]

Speculation only, but I think that the Hobbit sets have so far been better recieved than the LOTR sets. There just seems to be more substance there, and the Unexpected Gathering set is a more confident centrepiece to a more confident series.

One important factor is that, among kids, I think these sets have a more limited appeal than we adults are giving credit for. The basic colour scheme for LOTR is grey, brown and black. The Hobbit sets are a bit more adventurous, especially Bag End and the Barrel Escape sets, but even so, there's a lot of muted, dull colouring there, which means that the core appeal for the series is a) older children less swayed by bright colours and b) older children who are more committed fans of the books/movies.

Which is why the more cheerful, brighter Castle sets are coming in to fill the market gap that LOTR produced.

So yeah, I don't think the LOTR/Hobbit sets are selling SUPER-well, but I don't consider it a cause for alarm in the slightest. If the LOTR/Castle series can strike a happy balance with each other, we're in for some good times.

[The_Chosen_1]

If holiday sales online and in my area are any indication, the LotR line is doing fine. Amazon was out of stock of every single LotR set for basically all of December.

[SirBlake]

Speculation on retail sales for Lego seems pretty useless to me. It's not that it's not a worth while topic, it's that Lego, as a product in general, doesn't play by the same distribution rules as other properties. They only offer so many different sets in a year, and they're available for months at a time, if not a full year in most cases. Noteworthy exceptions being small polybags like the elf.

Compare this to something like Hasbro Star Wars where a store might get one case of one wave of figures (ever!) and it's easy to tell what sells and what is a "peg warmer".

I haven't seen any large scale clearancing of LotR or Hobbit, so maybe that says a little something.

[Feylandel]

I'm living and working in Freiburg (a nice city in southern Germany) and none of the stores is selling great amounts of LotR or The Hobbit sets.

That doesn't mean that I don't buy them. ;-)

I agree that they seem to be a little bit too...dark for kids and their parents - most of our customers buying this stuff are adults and interested in fantasy.

[cortman]

As far as I can tell they've been selling ridiculously well. Amazon's been completely out of stock of them for a good while, and finding a significant sale on them is tough. I hope they sell well enough to keep the series going!

I've not bought any Hobbit sets yet other than Riddles for the Ring, but they look good too, especially the Unexpected Gathering set.

[TheLegoDr]

I think speculating is fine, although a bit silly at times. I can say anything I want about anything with no proof, and it is all speculation. But in my experience LOTR is selling well for the most part. I rarely see any sets available. They were cleaned out around here for most of the year until a large shipment of Shelob Attacks and Gandalf Arrives came in and those sat on the shelves for a while.

As far as Hobbit is concerned, it helps it came out right before the holiday season so that will guarantee great sales. However, I will agree An Unexpected Gathering set sealed it for them. If they can continue sets like that, I think the theme will sell just fine. I'd be willing to buy multiples of that set actually because of the great color scheme and the adorable build. I'd love to build more of Hobbiton with that. Uruk Hai Army was the only LOTR set worth buying multiples of and even then I didn't care to buy too many.

I am more familiar with the characters from LOTR since I've watched the movies countless times, but I think I like the Hobbit sets more overall. Funny how that works. Either way I'm glad to have this theme exist!

[wreckidigidy]

I believe it is doing pretty well in Singapore with the exception of the flagship sets i.e. "Helm's Deep" and "The Goblin King" though the former still sell quite a bit for avid AFOLs here who picked up multiple sells during sales (which is still way more expensive than in US and Europe).

[Andyroo]

I believe it is doing pretty well in Singapore with the exception of the flagship sets i.e. "Helm's Deep" and "The Goblin King" though the former still sell quite a bit for avid AFOLs here who picked up multiple sells during sales (which is still way more expensive than in US and Europe).

Interesting

I think it might be the language barrier but like Star Wars I think LOTR and the Hobbit don't do as well as they do in western countries here (Korea).

90% of the time when I see someone buying Lego here it is Ninjago or friends.

[Brickington]

I always see Hobbit sets being sold, but never Lotr.

[Leo604]

Gonna jump on The Hobbit bandwagon and say they're at least selling better than LOTR; it's hard to find any but Riddles for the Ring around my local Walmart. There have been Mines of Moria's and Weathertop's on the shelves for months now though, which should kind of say something about that. :/

[kboleen]

I always see Hobbit sets being sold, but never Lotr.

That kind of sucks because I was looking forward to another LotR wave. But if they're not selling well, we may only get more Hobbit sets.

[Leo604]

That kind of sucks because I was looking forward to another LotR wave. But if they're not selling well, we may only get more Hobbit sets.

Doubt it; TLG will probably compare the bad sales with the good, see what was bad in the former ones, and make sure they don't make that sort of mistake in the June wave. Plus the LOTR license is still on for awhile so we should be fine.

[Hey Joe]

LOTR and Hobbit sets aren't sold in stores here in China. An educated guess as to why would be that mainland Chinese, by-and-large, don't quite get the culture of it that you and I grew up with (wizards, elves, etc.).

It's ok with me as I don't particularly care for the licensed stuff.

Joe

[jhc2nmfn]

Personally I think its kind of silly to base theories on how well a theme is selling based on how many sets are on store shelfs. Unless you went everyday and counted how many remain then this method isn't very accurate. I own a small retail company and have years of experience in others (in the US) and we restocked shelfs every night along with getting in new shipments 4-6 nights a week. Now im sure TLG shipments don't come in as frequently but I hope you understand the point im trying to make. I also think comparing how many lotr sets compared to how many hobbit sets remain on the shelves is inaccurate because of the six month date of release difference between the waves but im also unaware of how long a set normally remains in circulation. The best way to judge this would be to seek quarterly, annual or semi annual business reports released by TLG. Is TLG a publically traded company? If so then these reports are public information and should be easily found. I would assume the last one was released in december or is to be released by the end of the month. Anyway I understand this is just speculation I just figured id insert my two cents.

[Deathleech]

As long as we get at least one more wave I can die happy. I would prefer at least 2-3 more LotR waves, and 2 Hobbit ones, but they have hit most of the important, iconic scenes now. If we really do get Orthanc as an exclusive in June that just leaves a Minas Tirith set, Balrog, Fel Beast w/ Witch King, something with Faramir and Eowyn, and an Ent set and that pretty much will cover all the major factions, characters, and scenes. Of course I would love me some Haradrim, Easterlings, Ithilien Rangers, Osgiliath, Golden Hall, etc., but I could live without them if we got the 3 sets I just mentioned. I would also love a Gondor Battle Pack similar to the Uruk-hai Army one with 3 Gondor Soldiers and 3 Orcs, but I dunno if that will happen.

I know that was off topic, but I am just thinking IF the LotR/Hobbit theme isn't doing so well and will have a short life span. We have some reports from a Lego store here and there, but no real hard evidence regarding the overall sales. This makes it near impossible to say how well or poorly the line is doing without any real certainty. I pretty much agree with everything Bobsy said just based on what I have heard and seen myself though. I don't think the LotR/Hobbit sets are one of Lego's biggest hits ever, but I doubt it's doing as bad as say PotC or Bellville. I also agree the Hobbit sets seem to be doing better than the LotR ones did. I noticed a few times at Target stores when I went to check out the Lego aisle they were totally empty of Hobbit sets while a few LotR ones still were on shelves (not many though). I think it's due to a number of factors besides just the bright colors.. they were also released at Christmas and they were released right alongside a huge movie. I will be anxious to see how the next LotR wave does now that there is some media to boost sales...

Edited January 25, 2013 by Deathleech

[Leo604]

...Not even gonna respond to whatever that guy was advertising.

Personally I think its kind of silly to base theories on how well a theme is selling based on how many sets are on store shelfs. Unless you went everyday and counted how many remain then this method isn't very accurate. I own a small retail company and have years of experience in others (in the US) and we restocked shelfs every night along with getting in new shipments 4-6 nights a week. Now im sure TLG shipments don't come in as frequently but I hope you understand the point im trying to make. I also think comparing how many lotr sets compared to how many hobbit sets remain on the shelves is inaccurate because of the six month date of release difference between the waves but im also unaware of how long a set normally remains in circulation. The best way to judge this would be to seek quarterly, annual or semi annual business reports released by TLG. Is TLG a publically traded company? If so then these reports are public information and should be easily found. I would assume the last one was released in december or is to be released by the end of the month. Anyway I understand this is just speculation I just figured id insert my two cents.

1. I often go to Walmart once a week (usually on Saturdays); shelves are usually the same as the week before or from a few days earlier if I've made a prior visit but it just might be that store.

2. No, the Christiansen family still owns the majority so there probably aren't any public reports. I'll try to see if I can find recent news articles about TLG's revenue and profit in the past year or so, though.

[Darth Caedus]

The first Hobbit movie has the lowest amount of high-impact sets, as well. Bag End is iconic but still fundamentally a peaceful display set (despite the fact I have wargs attacking mine, lol). A set with Smaug for the TDOS movie, with hopefully the best Lego dragon ever made? That'll be a heck of a set and truly impressive. And the hype around the third film as the absolute end of the film franchise will inspire additional interest.

[The_Chosen_1]

Yes, Lego is indeed a privately held company. I would guess that we wouldn't be having this conversation if company reports were made publicly visible.

That said, isn't there some possible way that we could get some kind of official word on how well the line is doing? Doesn't TLG have a good enough relationship with the AFOL community to give a 'yes' or 'no'?

[BrickG]

Around here they're selling okay. You'll always be able to find the sets (unlike TMNT and Marvel/DC which are often sold out).

[jhc2nmfn]

Yes, Lego is indeed a privately held company. I would guess that we wouldn't be having this conversation if company reports were made publicly visible.

I actually think we would still be having this conversation judging by the level of intelligence of some of the posts I've read on other threads. They still sell their products to primarily publically traded companies though. Sifting through reports from walmart TRU and other retailers would give us a better understanding than a random guy saying he goes into the store once a week to check how many lego boxes are on the shelves (I assure you they stock shelves more than once a week). Although it would take alot of work and I for one wouldnt be able to do it.

[Blakstone]

There are LEGO Shareholders Reports but the most recent one I found was from 2011.

Here are the sales info from that report. Please keep in mind it predates the LotR sets.

Sales The LEGO Group’s revenue increased by 17.0% in 2011 to DKK 18,731 million against DKK 16,014 million the year before.

Recent years’ growth on the North American market continued at the same pace in 2011. Also most European and Asian markets achieved two-digit sales increases. However, due to the financial crisis in certain European markets, the rate of increase on several Western European markets declined during the last months of the year.

Sales of several licence-based product lines were consider- ably above expectations in 2011. This applies to LEGO products based on Star WarsTM, Harry PotterTM and Pirates of the CaribbeanTM. Also LEGO City and LEGO Technic continued to show considerable growth, while LEGO® DUPLO® continues its moderate growth rate. As a theme, LEGO Ninjago, which is a combination of traditional building sets and so-called spinners launched at the beginning of 2011, exceeded expectations and was the biggest product launch in company history.

The online game LEGO Universe, which was launched at the end of 2010, did not meet expectations, and in November 2011 it was decided to discontinue the development of the game.

I think the big disconnect is that while the LotR / Hobbit sets are selling well, LEGO may have been hoping for something as big as Star Wars. Lord of the Rings might come as close as any license to the popularity of Star Wars as any other license among adults but it does not appeal to kids anywhere near as much.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&ved=0CE0QFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fcache.lego.com%2Fr%2Faboutus%2F-%2Fmedia%2FAbout%2520Us%2FAnnual%2520Report%2Fts.20120301T121813.Annual_Report_2011_UK.pdf&ei=TgICUbrrJqm2yAG5i4GIDg&usg=AFQjCNE2lwXmVI0KRCaZZRXZkD3tbmZbNw&bvm=bv.41524429,d.aWc

Edited January 25, 2013 by Blakstone

[jhc2nmfn]

Well now we know they exist we just have to find the right one. This is off topic but its interesting they mention potc and hp exceeding expectations in sales but stopped producing new sets from them (from my impression anyway) I guess that really backs the theory of free promotion and marketing on movie releases, which I hate to admit. Hopefully we end up seeing the lotr movies rereleased in 3d. Im not the biggest fan of 3d but it may be the best chance of keeping the line alive after 2015ish

[Faefrost]

Because PotC and HP only make money, and exceed expectations in the years that there were corresponding movies out. Star Wars too sees a drastic difference between when a movie was out and when wasn't. At least until Clone Wars started airing. ( here's a hint guys why we so so many TCW sets. They make more money than OT currently.)

We see the same thing with the Middle Earth lines. LotR may have appeared strong or weak, depending on where you live. (It seems much stronger in English language countries. Somewhat understandable given the source. Did HP have similar issues?) whereas The Hobbit, with it's corresponding movie did much much better. At least just by observing holiday shelves and available stock. ( although one word of advise for TLG regarding both. When seeking to sell on the mass merchant toy aisles, you may want to steal clear of the big hairy giant spider sets. I have a few young drooling Lego fanatics that will not come into my office until I have proven that Shelob is secured in a box. My wife too.)