LEGO LotR - general discussion

[Jason7189]

Personally, I think the best set of Lotr and Hobbit combined was UHA.

[Mr. Cube]

"Crebain from Dunland: Legolas, Gimli, Frodo, Gandalf, a huge brick built rock for them to hide under, and several birds using the pet shop mold in black $25"

dream set

[Faefrost]

Just out of curiosity, do you know why a single LEGO mold is that much more expensive than other plastic items? For instance, some board games contain more than 20 finely molded plastic figures. Board games are a real niche market, and some games are considered hugely successful when selling 50,000 copies.

Lego molds are extremely high precision. They are the hardest steel. They are designed for high temperature high pressure ABS plastic. And the connectivity required of the pieces is to the point of aircraft engineering. Even a hairpiece. It has to stick firmly to the head and not come off until you want it to, but then release the head cleanly and easily without having to dig the head out. It is a world of difference from the cheaper low precision tooling used for things like board game pieces. Or the lower temperature and pressure molds used for styrene, such as for model kits (or aftermarket Lego addons like Brickarms)

How much do the softer molds for the CMF series cost? I presume much less considering there are so many per wave? That is another reason I suggested doing a LotR CFM series. The cheaper molds would work well for LotR, which requires a substantial amount.

Also, I dunno about others but I would GLADLY pay $45 for a Gondor Army Builder if it had 6 minifigures like UHA and MEA. As longas it had at least 2 Gondor Soldiers with new helms and prints, Roman Shields re-used and re-colored, and at least 3 armored orc prints with the Fantasy Era helm I'm all in.

It's the type of plastic used. ABS requires much more expesnive molds and machinery. That's why Megabloks can mass produce different figures for sets and have so many different parts, but the plastic feels like crap.

The estimates I have heard set the absolute cheapest tooling at around $80,000 USD. And that is for stuff with minimal connectivity. Something like the painters paintbrush that only has to be grasped by the hand. The Gummy type parts might be a cheaper molding, but they are for extremely short runs. The soft tooling does not last long. The full range of tooling goes from around $80,000 up to just under $500,000 that last time I heard anything really credible on it. Actual construction parts tend to be the high end. Detailed minifig parts tend to be the mid range.

The CMF's use a radically different business model. For actual regular box sets the cost of a new part can't be more than 5% or so of the sets retail price (excepting certain huge Big Figs like Smaug). So even with a cheap $80,000 mold, at 10,000 pieces you are still looking at $8 onto the cost of a battlepack. That blows the consumer value curve and Lego would never make that. Whereas because of the extreme high margins on the CMF's, plus the low associated costs The cost of a new part to them can run as high as 50% of the retail price. The new part is considered the value of the set. Plus CMF's have very low transport, display and production costs. A 1' cube of retail shelf space can return more profit than just about anything else in Lego's line. This makes the mold financing much easier.

And that is the other thing about why we get some things and not others. Notice the Hobbit has more new parts than LotR. This goes back to why they are 2 separate themes. Every theme is assigned an estimated value. what they expect to make with it. It factors in externals like tie ins and publicity, past performance, etc. all sorts of stuff. And it is on the basis of these predictions that a line is granted financing. And the financing pays for the tooling. How much financing the line or theme gets depends on what it is. But things that count heavily towards it are licences, past performance, and contemporaneous movies being released. Hobbit is worth more financing because of the movies. When 2 movies went to 3 Hobbit gained financing while LotR stayed flat or decreased slightly. and this financing for theme specific materials cannot be passed from theme to theme. (well except "general use parts" like swords and the Eagle molds)

[Alcarin]

Sigh! Yeah you might be able to get 10,000 pre orders for a "battle pack". The problem is for a single new mold you would need somewhere around 500,000. That's why ideas sets can't do new parts. That's why D2C sets do not do new parts (only exception was the train wheels). A new mold costs around $200,000 usd. With your 10,000 pre orders that means the new mold is $20 per set before you put a single piece of plastic in. I'm gonna guess, just based on the level of bitching that you all gave Uruk Hai Army and Mirkwood Elves that the bulk of you would not be interested in a $45 4 figure battle pack.

And that is LotR's huge problem. It sells comfortably within a niche. Probably even profitably to a point. But it doesn't hit the huge numbers wanted for and by the big box retail distribution. And there are not enough niche collectors to make up for this. Lego loves multi set buyers. But they can't plan for them. They are not a predictable market. They are great to have, but in trying to appeal to them they end up with sets the regular retail customers don't want. Because most of their customers want variety and named characters.

Castle and LotR are not the same thing and they do not compete in Lego's eyes. The Kings Castle and Helms Deep were released in well differentiated lines a year apart, and were fully distinct, from packaging to target age to where they were placed on store shelves. (Yes Lego gives shelving guidance for their product. )

Well it was not 4 figure battle pack right, it was more liek 6 + animal, and if they'd made 4 Gondor soldiers + 2 orcs I might sjutify spending 45 or even 50$ for it :P

You did ''ignore'' that part though, its hard to argue it right?

quoted from above

Now then lets move into the area where LEGO did factor in multiple purchase. Black Gates..... they designed the set with purpose of purchasing it ATLEAST twice (they said that themselves right) and then they make a totally dumb move of putting 3/5 figs named characters...... seriously? Now I did not even buy 1 set of that, because I want two, but I dont want to support their dumb move of selling us named figs...... how can you consider such move of actually advertising multiple purchases and then putting in so many named characters..... even when i was a kid, and my grandfather bought me LEGO I hated it when i got Majistos, was so annoying, i always chose sets that had troops in now majistos, you got 1, thats fine, you did not need anymore, I threw them away....

[Faefrost]

Well it was not 4 figure battle pack right, it was more liek 6 + animal, and if they'd made 4 Gondor soldiers + 2 orcs I might sjutify spending 45 or even 50$ for it :P

You did ''ignore'' that part though, its hard to argue it right?

quoted from above

Oh I'm sorry. 6 figures and a molded animal with two new parts. On a 10,000 piece production run. You are absolutely correct I am in error. That would not be a $45 set. That would be well in excess of $65 for something that would be about the size and content of Uruk Hai Army.

[Alcarin]

Oh I'm sorry. 6 figures and a molded animal with two new parts. On a 10,000 piece production run. You are absolutely correct I am in error. That would not be a $45 set. That would be well in excess of $65 for something that would be about the size and content of Uruk Hai Army.

Except that you have to take into account that probably because of LEGO giving us this two new parts /figures in such a set, would result in more people buying more other sets (or PABs) to make their own creations and that is also a passive revenue boost that can cover initial loss...... you cannot expect that every set will cover its own molds 100%.......

And still you decided to ignore Black Gates as a prime example of LEGO LOTR failure with multiple purchases in LEGOs OWN predictions and calculations.

[Deathleech]

Oh I'm sorry. 6 figures and a molded animal with two new parts. On a 10,000 piece production run. You are absolutely correct I am in error. That would not be a $45 set. That would be well in excess of $65 for something that would be about the size and content of Uruk Hai Army.

I and many others would be totally fine with an existing shield like the old Fantasy Era Orc, or Roman Shield being re-used for the Gondor Shield. Then all Lego needs to make for new molds would be the Gondor Helm and do new prints, which to my understanding are relatively cheap. The armored orcs could re-use the Fantasy Era helm and just have new prints themselves. The large molded creature could be a cave troll re-colored tan to look like a mountain troll. I know it might not be perfect and would be missing the cool armor, but I would totally settle for that over any other expensive new mold, or re-using any other existing creature molds. If that's too expensive to include in a $45-50 set, a black horse or light tan warg would make due.

[BrickBob Studpants]

Here's what Hulk_Smash replied when I asked him about new LOTR sets in the SW 2015 thread:

Nope no LOTR that I saw, but I could have missed it.

Seems like LOTR is definitely over, what a surprise

[Trunkbass]

Where did he look?

[Lynx]

Thanks for your answers regarding mold cost, Faefrost and Deatchleech!

[Nuju Metru]

I don't think a large Minas Tirith is a terribly unrealistic prospect... LEGO just released the UCS Tumbler, which is from a movie that came out years ago, and made an expensive set for it, too. Minas Tirith, if TLG made it, would hopefully exist in the same vein: a pricey, collector-oriented affair. At least, given the Tumbler and the Tower of Orthanc as examples, that's what I'd predict. The only question would be whether they'll hold onto the Tolkien license after what will probably be the last wave of Hobbit products.

But hey, why speculate when you can act?

[TheLegoDr]

That was a good looking project. If that is what it takes for LEGO to take LOTR seriously, then I will gladly lend my vote.

[Ql97]

Lego Ideas is probably not the best route for Minas Tirith.

As Lego has been very clear on, they will not produce any new molds for an Ideas set. If so that would severly limit our options for minifigures. They could manage Denathor, Faramir, Gandalf and Eowyn, Pippin and Merry without helmets, but they wouldn't make the Witch-King or Gothmog (what I want), or Gondorian Soldiers (what everybody else wants).

My only hope for Minas Tirith is a D2C set like Diagon Alley.

[Faefrost]

Lego Ideas is probably not the best route for Minas Tirith.

As Lego has been very clear on, they will not produce any new molds for an Ideas set. If so that would severly limit our options for minifigures. They could manage Denathor, Faramir, Gandalf and Eowyn, Pippin and Merry without helmets, but they wouldn't make the Witch-King or Gothmog (what I want), or Gondorian Soldiers (what everybody else wants).

My only hope for Minas Tirith is a D2C set like Diagon Alley.

Some bad news. For the most part D2C is just as forbidden from new unique tooling as Ideas. The only exception they ever made for that was the Large Train Wheels (and maybe the UCS X Wing canopy although they have been using that in retail now.) the problem is the size of production run. Ideas sets are made in runs of 10-20,000. D2C a bit more but not too much. A big D2C set maybe 50,000 to 100,000 initial run? Maybe a little more for Star Wars. Regular retail sets will easily hit production runs of 10x that. Up to 1 million + pieces. Only regular retail sets can absorb and amortize the costs of new tooling. So even if we were to get an Ideas Minas Tirith or a D2C one, without another full retail wave the best we could see would be new printings on existing parts.

[Mahtion]

Faefrost,

Are odds in favor of a D2C Hobbit or LOTR or perhaps neither?

Thanks

[Shroffy123]

Lol be careful showing that set alcarin will freak out

[SMC]

the fact that there is not a lotr set on ideas at 10,000 already maybe shows a bit of the problem

[Trunkbass]

What if LEGO made the Middle-Earth sets Evergreen, but limited in capacity and focussed on AFOLs?

Like only two sets a year, one Hobbit, one LOTR for example. Could that be possible? Would it be more profitable for them (or less space consuming for other, probably better selling, sets)?

I would even be happy if they announced to do one Middel-Earth set a year. At least we have something then..

Edited August 24, 2014 by Trunkbass

[sahidko]

...Like only two sets a year, one Hobbit, one LOTR for example...

The problem is the license. We all know it's going to expire (just dont know when) and i am not sure LEGO would think about extending it just for the sake of 2 sets every year. Doesn't look very profitable to me unfortunately.

[Alcarin]

Lol be careful showing that set alcarin will freak out

Not really, but the other set is 100 times better, this one is just ugly :)

the fact that there is not a lotr set on ideas at 10,000 already maybe shows a bit of the problem

No to me it shows more that all LEGO LOTR ideas are ugly (more or less) I did not support the above Minas Tirith, not because I dont want it, but I just cannot support that creation, still bows to the author but to my eyes its not looking Minas Tirith enough.

[atreyu2112]

If the LotR line is indeed done, then sadly the bulk of my Lego collecting days are done as well. After the 4 Hobbit sets, there's really not much more I want to collect outside of the odd set here or there. Maybe a Star Wars or TMNT set... But LotR is where my heart lies.

It's so sad, and pathetic, Lego wimped out on this line. They did such a great job on wave 1. It was so good that even though they had the ability to live up to it with wave 2, they truly fell far short. Orthanc is an amazing set, but I'd have glady gotten a Balrog, Witch King Showdown, Treebeard and Siege of Minas Tirith in it's place.

What a way to let us all down Lego.

[Blazej_Holen]

If the LotR line is indeed done, then sadly the bulk of my Lego collecting days are done as well. After the 4 Hobbit sets, there's really not much more I want to collect outside of the odd set here or there. Maybe a Star Wars or TMNT set... But LotR is where my heart lies.

It's so sad, and pathetic, Lego wimped out on this line. They did such a great job on wave 1. It was so good that even though they had the ability to live up to it with wave 2, they truly fell far short. Orthanc is an amazing set, but I'd have glady gotten a Balrog, Witch King Showdown, Treebeard and Siege of Minas Tirith in it's place.

What a way to let us all down Lego.

Exactly my words... At least my wallet will rest. I will focus to create some add ons to Lake town to make proper village and maybe if there will be some D2C castle set and thats pretty much end for me with buying Lego. For now.

[TheLegoDr]

I agree, very disappointed in how they handled things. But maybe kids just didn't like the line so it didn't sell well.

I will still have some super hero sets to buy when this is over, but my drastically lower lego budget this year will drop even further next year then...

[Trunkbass]

This forum makes me incredibly sad.

When do we start a riot? When there's no info in the catalog or no ad in the Hobbit instruction booklets?

I'm ready to start a petition

[Faefrost]

Faefrost,

Are odds in favor of a D2C Hobbit or LOTR or perhaps neither?

Thanks

We already got our large D2C close out set for LotR. Orthanc. I doubt we will get another because of timing and that third Hobbit film. I can't see Lego extending the license once the last movie is done. That extra movie would have pushed all of the retail stuff much closer to the original end of license than they normally go with a licensed line. Remember with licenses it reflects how long the stuff can be on store shelves. They stop making new stuff when they reach the point where all they have left is the products expected shelf life. Licensed retail sets seem to have about 1 year of expected retail life span (2 for larger ones). D2C sets seem to mainly have a 2 year life cycle. I think we are well inside of 2 years remaining on Lego's Middle Earth licenses and are probably getting pretty close to the 1 year left mark. They will not put a big new D2C set out because they likely do not have enough time left to give it a full sales life cycle.

And before anyone screams that this was poor planning on Lego's part. This comes down on the constantly changing schedules, goal posts and hard dates from New Line and Peter Jackson. There is a reason why every other toy maker basically told New Line and PeeJ to go Brick themselves after TUJ. The constantly evolving vision and scale of the project was not conducive to working with outside merchandise licensing partners.

My suspicion (pure speculation on my part) is that the Middle Earth stuff is a 5 year license. We know from what others have seen and said, that it was in effect in early 2011. (Remember the license is not the shelf life of the product. It's when they start official work.) so the likely end point is probably Dec 31, 2015. Which means the last sets would be hitting the retail shelves around Dec 2014. As much as I would wish it otherwise I cannot see any clear or legitimate business reason that would cause them to extend the license further. Maybe if the license was dirt cheap, and was selling well? But I don't think any WB license is cheap.

Which brings up one word of warning regarding the last Hobbit wave, especially Smaug. Do not wait too long for steep clearance price drops. This set will be more like the last HP Hogworts castle. It will EOL before the price really drops. The actual production numbers will probably be a little lower for this wave, with no chance for a second production run. There may be a brief clearence sell off at S@H and Lego stores right at the end. But the wave will most likely vanish overnight. You might gamble and get a good deal. But if these are must have sets for you, you might not want to wait.

Edited August 24, 2014 by Faefrost