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Posted

I understand your enthusiasm, and I believe you can actually monitor what happens in your neighborhood store with such keen observation, but again, this only represents what happens in one store.

Exactly how many persons with whom you discuss the actual sales volume has the same level of enthusiasm and dedication to monitor their neighborhood stores as you do? How many of them use a ruler like you do to measure the gaps between stacked boxes on shelves? Are they properly distributed across all countries that sell LEGO? How old and aware of the concepts of professional market study are they? Do you see where I’m going with this?

Are you saying that the LOTR/Hobbit lines were top sellers for lego? Do you have info on sales, etc., that you'd like to share? Is it this success why we are getting a 3rd wave of LOTR this year, and lego has renewed the license for 2 more years with Warner Bros.?

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Posted

I understand your enthusiasm, and I believe you can actually monitor what happens in your neighborhood store with such keen observation, but again, this only represents what happens in one store.

Exactly how many persons with whom you discuss the actual sales volume has the same level of enthusiasm and dedication to monitor their neighborhood stores as you do? How many of them use a ruler like you do to measure the gaps between stacked boxes on shelves? Are they properly distributed across all countries that sell LEGO? How old and aware of the concepts of professional market study are they? Do you see where I’m going with this?

You're purposely ignoring everyone else that has been sharing similar information.

How delusional are you?

Posted (edited)

I fail to see where exactly did you read in my words that I said those two lines were best sellers, so please read my posts again and you’ll see that the point I was making is that NONE of us has sales figures, not me and certainly not him or you or anybody here who doesn’t work for the sales department in LEGO, so no one can claim those themes were a success or fail in terms of sales, and that observing one store or the opinions of angry fans on internet forums is hardly a professional way of doing that.

And I also explained why there will be no more waves of licensed themes in general in the absence of more movies or TV shows to keep them relevant to kids and justify the price markup compared to normal themes to parents, regardless of the success of the theme.

Am I not being clear, or is it the bitterness that drives most of us angry at LEGO for not making the best out of this license, and then makes us endlessly argues about what’s common sense?

Bobbtom: I don’t appreciate the insult, so please take it back, for the sake of playing nice, alright?

Edited by Khaled Yousef
Posted

I fail to see where exactly did you read in my words that I said those two lines were best sellers, so please read my posts again and you’ll see that the point I was making is that NONE of us has sales figures, not me and certainly not him or you or anybody here who doesn’t work for the sales department in LEGO, so no one can claim those themes were a success or fail in terms of sales, and that observing one store or the opinions of angry fans on internet forums is hardly a professional way of doing that.

And I also explained why there will be no more waves of licensed themes in general in the absence of more movies or TV shows to keep them relevant to kids and justify the price markup compared to normal themes to parents, regardless of the success of the theme.

Am I not being clear, or is it the bitterness that drives most of us angry at LEGO for not making the best out of this license, and then makes us endlessly argues about what’s common sense?

Bobbtom: I don’t appreciate the insult, so please take it back, for the sake of playing nice, alright?

You nailed it. :thumbup: I think you've made your point.

Posted

Thanks BrickJagger. The only reason why I still follow this thread is that there is still one LOTR set being officially reviewed by LEGO to become a real set, that’s Nuju’s awesome Minas Tirith, and that makes the LOTR theme still officially relevant. And while there is little chance it might be picked to become a set, we can still hope.

Now what I don’t understand is why we can’t keep discussing this little hope remaining in a nice way, without jumping at each other’s throats and making too many fanboy assumptions!

Posted

@ Khaled Yousef: good points.

Is it this success why we are getting a 3rd wave of LOTR this year, and lego has renewed the license for 2 more years with Warner Bros.?

I do not know what defines "success" for Lego. I do not know what expectations Lego had with the LotR-line; I do not know whether they were met or not. In any case I dare say they were not as high as the ones for Star Wars.

Some developments, like the current suspension of the line, may be interpreted as sign that the sales were not stellar. But that is a) an interpretation on the basis of very much incomplete data sets, and b) implicitly assumes Lego wanted to do more waves. I would not readily subscribe to that, since we have seen three waves for three movies which tied in nicely to the current Tolkien media release (Hobbit). Did they want more than that? I do not know.

Furthermore, the bizarre absence of any Gondor-themed sets, despite three waves for three movies, is not explained by bad sales. In fact I have not seen any good explanation. This alone is a strong indication that something is going on behind the scenes, which we do not understand.

With all these unknowns, thinking in binaries like "if it had been a success, there'd be more sets" does not seem the best approach.

Posted (edited)

Someone here said that a third Lotr wave was planned, but when The Hobbit was turned into three movies, the last wave was cut. I agree with that.

I'll assume that the same team worked on both Lotr and the Hobbit. Let's say they were working (back in 2012) on the third Lotr wave when they learned that they needed to make another Hobbit wave for Bot5a. They abandoned Lotr wave three to make Hobbit wave three, and by the time they were done, they wouldn't be able to finish the Lotr sets by the time the third Hobbit movie came out.

Lego is aware that making new waves for a theme (that wasn't a standout) after it's last movie is bad business. Therefore, we will never see the third Lotr wave.

In a separate theory, I think that Lego actually did have Elf-themed Castle sets planned for 2010, but they got into a contract negotiation for the rights to make Hobbit sets, so they said they weren't making Elf sets. The entire Fantasy Era Castle line reflects Lego's attempt to recreate Lotr+TH.

While they were trying to get the rights to make Hobbit sets, Lego decided to make Castle sets that weren't Fantasy themed in the event that they got the license. This theme was Kingdoms. Kingdoms basically had the potential to go on for a lot longer than it did, but still ended up looking complete when it ended because Lego was careful to make Kingdoms look like an authentic Castle sub theme, not a cheap filler.

In the event that Lego didn't wind up with the license, they could continue to make Kingdoms sets by introducing Black Falcons (who were hinted at) and making AFOLs happy in the absence of Hobbit sets.

It ends up coming down to this: Would you rather have had Hobbit and Lotr, or fleshie Elves and/or Black Falcons? Though question :wink:

It's a hunch, but it does make sense.

Edited by BrickJagger
Posted

Flieger: I totally agree with you on the point that something must have happened that caused a cancellation of a third LOTR wave, or at least some more Gondor sets in wave 2, because it doesn’t make sense that in an action oriented theme LEGO would make sets about a round table with some foliage and not make a set about the most important action scene in the trilogy.

I think BrickJagger’s first suggestion is the most plausible: PJ caught everyone with their pants down when he decided to make a third movie, so another Hobbit wave had to replace third LOTR wave or something like that. You know, LEGO don’t have infinite production lines in their factories, and priorities had to be taken into consideration: a current movie is more relevant than an older classic one, even if it meant an incomplete LOTR collection. Poor sales and stuff like that aren’t convincing enough compared to this suggestion.

Posted

Someone here said that a third Lotr wave was planned, but when The Hobbit was turned into three movies, the last wave was cut. I agree with that.

I'll assume that the same team worked on both Lotr and the Hobbit. Let's say they were working (back in 2012) on the third Lotr wave when they learned that they needed to make another Hobbit wave for Bot5a. They abandoned Lotr wave three to make Hobbit wave three, and by the time they were done, they wouldn't be able to finish the Lotr sets by the time the third Hobbit movie came out.

Lego is aware that making new waves for a theme (that wasn't a standout) after it's last movie is bad business. Therefore, we will never see the third Lotr wave.

In a separate theory, I think that Lego actually did have Elf-themed Castle sets planned for 2010, but they got into a contract negotiation for the rights to make Hobbit sets, so they said they weren't making Elf sets. The entire Fantasy Era Castle line reflects Lego's attempt to recreate Lotr+TH.

While they were trying to get the rights to make Hobbit sets, Lego decided to make Castle sets that weren't Fantasy themed in the event that they got the license. This theme was Kingdoms. Kingdoms basically had the potential to go on for a lot longer than it did, but still ended up looking complete when it ended because Lego was careful to make Kingdoms look like an authentic Castle sub theme, not a cheap filler.

In the event that Lego didn't wind up with the license, they could continue to make Kingdoms sets by introducing Black Falcons (who were hinted at) and making AFOLs happy in the absence of Hobbit sets.

It ends up coming down to this: Would you rather have had Hobbit and Lotr, or fleshie Elves and/or Black Falcons? Though question :wink:

It's a hunch, but it does make sense.

I do own all the LoTR and Hobbit sets, just because I love fantasy. I have seen and liked all the movies, but the sets are just nice, no overwhelming reactions here.

My biggest issue are:

  1. Licensed sets cost more. I'd rather buy a general orc than a "uruk-hai", if for 3 of the first I can get onli 2 of the latter.
  2. I am an anti-fleshies. Fleshies do not blend with other LEGO and LEGO are yellow to me.

So though I am a LoTR fan, I do welcome the end of this theme IF the rumours about castle for 2016 being more "fantasy" is true. I really welcome this 10 times more than any LoTR wave.

Posted (edited)

To be fair, Castle is an “Ever-green” theme for LEGO, we’ll always get more and more Castle waves released every two or three years, which is not very bad for Castle fans. LOTR however was a once in a life time chance, and although it was short it made LOTR and fleshie fans very happy. Castle fans shouldn’t be so irritated by it, it happened so fast and ended so fast and you’ll get your Castle sets again sooner than later. I’m a fan of both, so I’m happy either way.

And while fantasy minifigs from normal Castle lines were an OK attempt to resemble LOTR universe, they weren’t nearly as good as the ones that came with LOTR and Hobbit sets, I’d pay more for better and more accurate minifigs. And the Helms Deep design is far superior to anything that ever came in normal Castle waves; I’d also pay more for better designed fortresses that doesn’t look weird with all the blue and red thingies on the walls like normal Castle sets do.

Edited by Khaled Yousef
Posted

I understand your enthusiasm, and I believe you can actually monitor what happens in your neighborhood store with such keen observation, but again, this only represents what happens in one store.

Actually, for me at least, it's like five stores. Three different Targets and two Wal-Marts. Then you add in reports from the dozens of other members which all seem to be the same and you get a pretty good impression of what's going on. It's not like mixed reports where some people are seeing tons of stock and it selling quick while others see a few sets on shelves collecting dust. Pretty much EVERYONE is seeing the same thing.. sets not selling well and VERY small stock ordered. This is the ONLY thing we actually can see and base anything off of. Everything else is pure speculation.

We will NEVER know exact sales figures or how the line is doing. Lego doesn't generally release that sort of info. The most they say in their sales reports is that their top sellers (City, Friends, Star Wars, etc.) are performing strong or whatever. We have no idea why there wasn't a third LotR wave. Maybe Lego had one planned and the splitting of the Hobbit into three movies changed their plans from 3 to 2 LotR waves? Maybe sales were poor and they cut the line short? Maybe there was no intention of ever doing a third LotR wave for whatever reason? We have no idea.

To be fair, Castle is an “Ever-green” theme for LEGO, we’ll always get more and more Castle waves released every two or three years, which is not very bad for Castle fans. LOTR however was a once in a life time chance, and although it was short it made LOTR and fleshie fans very happy. Castle fans shouldn’t be so irritated by it, it happened so fast and ended so fast and you’ll get your Castle sets again sooner than later. I’m a fan of both, so I’m happy either way.

Yup, and there was even a Castle wave right in the middle of all the LotR and Hobbit waves so it's not like there has been that long of a wait.

Posted

To be fair, Castle is an “Ever-green” theme for LEGO, we’ll always get more and more Castle waves released every two or three years, which is not very bad for Castle fans. LOTR however was a once in a life time chance, and although it was short it made LOTR and fleshie fans very happy. Castle fans shouldn’t be so irritated by it, it happened so fast and ended so fast and you’ll get your Castle sets again sooner than later. I’m a fan of both, so I’m happy either way.

And while fantasy minifigs from normal Castle lines were an OK attempt to resemble LOTR universe, they weren’t nearly as good as the ones that came with LOTR and Hobbit sets, I’d pay more for better and more accurate minifigs. And the Helms Deep design is far superior to anything that ever came in normal Castle waves; I’d also pay more for better designed fortresses that doesn’t look weird with all the blue and red thingies on the walls like normal Castle sets do.

I think I didn't make my point.

  1. While I am not a fan of fleshies (I make large diorama and I don't place a single fleshie in it) becasue IMHO they do not stick with LEGO, making them look fairly odd, I absolutely have no problems with people having different opinions from mine. So if you like the fleshies no problem, but I feel free to say I dislike them and I would never have used such color neither in licensed themes. It was unneeded.
  2. Castle like the last wave and castle like Fantasy Era are pretty different things. You like a lot the Helm's deep... well IMHO it costs more and is less interesting than a 10193. It's fun to have different ideas and opinions on things. :sweet:

Posted

I think I didn't make my point ........................................................................

Castle like the last wave and castle like Fantasy Era are pretty different things. You like a lot the Helm's deep... well IMHO it costs more and is less interesting than a 10193. It's fun to have different ideas and opinions on things. :sweet:

In my eyes, the MMV is a top 10 all time Lego set, not just a top 10 Castle set. It's hard to find a sets with more imagination and thought put into in than the MMV.

Lotr is different because the designers knew what Helm's Deep looked like. It gave them a reference point for designing the set. The guys who worked on the MMV started from scratch. They knew what the average Medieval village looked like, but the challenge was blending all of the parts of a common village into one set. Also, no the MMV was the first set of it's kind (being an entire village), and it paved the way for MVR two years later.

Lego sets are all about creativity, and the MMV crushes Helm's Deep in that category, for obvious reasons. :wink:

Helm's Deep is a good set, but others similar to it have been made. I would go as far as putting the 2010 Kingdoms Castle and the Black Knights Castle ahead of it in terms of design, but that's just my opinion.

If Fantasy Era comes back, I'll be over the moon, and I'm sure that many others on this thread would be as well. It's a compromise between regular Castle and Lotr. :classic:

Let's hope for that.

Posted

Sure, Lego knows their own sales figures better than anyone else. But many fans, and especially resellers, have quite a good idea about how sales are going. This is especially true online, where it is normally easy to monitor how fast items are selling.

PS I can estimate 1cm without using a ruler. Hence the use of the word about.

Posted

Guys, I think it’s a very incorrect way to assess the volume of sales of a certain product by mere random observations of the amount of sets displayed in a couple of stores. You don’t know how many sets the store you observe sells, you don’t know how many they ordered from LEGO, you don’t know if the fact that many sets exist on the shelves can be considered a good or bad sign, maybe no one is buying them so there is too many of them, maybe people are buying too many so there are none left on shelves… who knows.

Furthermore, you don’t know how many sets move through online market, thousands of stores around the world, aftermarket and re-sellers… etc.

It’s safe however to say that LOTR and Hobbit will end because there are no more movies or series being produced, therefore the kids of today, whom are the primary demographic of this toy, will not recognize the brand, which makes the markup of the license an unnecessary burden on the price of sets… that’s it.

Star Wars continues to be a success not because the original movies were great, but because Lucas made the prequels, and the Clone Wars, and the Disney deal, and there is a current popular cartoon being aired on a kid’s channel, and upcoming movies and spinoffs every year… you see.

You can actually tell a great deal about how a line is doing or how it is faring just by observing a few stores. If you know what you are looking at. Just from observations we can reasonably tell a few things about the Hobbit and LotR lines.

1. The First Hobbit wave was likely the best seller of all 5 waves. Largely on the basis of The Unexpected Gathering (Bag End), which was one of the years "must have" Christmas toys.

2. Neither the second LotR wave nor the second Hobbit wave attracted an overwhelming amount of consumer interest. Of particular concern to the retailers was the common "clearanced" items seemed to be the lower and low mid cost sets. Council of Rivendale being a prime example. (For all of our complaining about the Pirate ship, my instinct and observations still tell me that it sold far better than Rivendale or The Black Gate).

3. Target had absolutely no interest in the higher priced wave 3 sets. I have yet to see any reports of Lonely Mountain on shelves at Target. This follows with Target seeming leery of any $100+ sets that are not Star Wars or City. It also appears that Walmart at best minimally stocked Hobbit Wave 3, or completely ignored the line.

What that tells us is there was no building interest in Hobbit/LotR toys as they progressed from movie to movie. There was an initial consumer surge with the first film, which then saw a steady drop off for the second and third. This is not an unusual pattern for most licensed toy lines with movie tie ins. Even some Marvel films suffer from this. (This is why we did not see Thor the Dark World sets). At heart the one thing that is clear is that the third party retailers largely felt that the bulk of the shelf space dedicated to the Middle Earth lines could be better used. The subject matter really is more geared to the collector rather than the chains target customer of the child looking for a toy. Adults bought them largely for themselves. While there is profit to be had from this market, it is not one that Target or Walmart seeks to capitalize on. In short when the product was selling it was the wrong demographic buying it.

Posted

Yeah I agree I would love a Minas Tirith set but admit it were all getting into our fantasy, it is not going to happen.

Posted

What I think is that LoTR is not as popular as you can think among YOUNG kids. I do sell LEGO and usually the ones who wanted LoTR sets were people having already it in mind before coming and buying.

Kids who just want a toy would see LoTR as "just another castle wave" but their parents will mark this as "more expensive" thus leading in fail of the line.

Posted (edited)

Itaria: I understand your point completely, and back when fleshies came out I used to replace them with yellow heads for my Star Wars minifigs because I wanted a complete yellow collection, they looked more LEGO to me back then. You also make a very good point saying that LOTR and Hobbit seemed to parents like a more expensive and intimidating castle theme, and I think we all agree that LEGO missed many good opportunities designing or choosing scenes for those expensive sets which made the line a lot less interesting to kids.

BrickJagger: I don’t think Helms Deep is the best thing ever, it just looks a lot more realistic as a castle and it has much better “finishing” it almost looks like an AFOL’s MOC compared to other castles we got with weird blue and red stuff, and I’m trying so hard to factor out nostalgia’s influence or else I’d choose 6085 as the best castle ever. 10193 is definitely miles ahead of Helms Deep in terms of creativity, and to me it’s also one of the best sets made by LEGO regardless of the theme.

MAB: I wasn’t making fun of your observation my friend; I was admiring it, and pointing out than others might not have the same keen eye, and therefore cannot be relied on as store reporters. You seem to be spending more time in your store than most of us, heck, some of us don’t even visit stores and buy most of their LEGO online.

The internet will always be the internet: more talk and personal opinions and less facts. The bold claims that LEGO cancelled the so called third LOTR wave because the line didn’t sell good sounds meaningless when it comes from casual observers… they claim to know not just a total view of the international market just by observing some local stores, but they go as far as to think they know how LEGO runs its business… which is funny to say the least.

Faefrost: your observation about Target and Wall-Mart is valid, and saying that the line didn’t look like it was very popular is a fairly logical statement that doesn’t require a professional marketer to declare, so I understand what most of you guys say, and I don’t think it’s wrong at all.

Edited by Khaled Yousef
Posted

Itaria: I understand your point completely, and back when fleshies came out I used to replace them with yellow heads for my Star Wars minifigs because I wanted a complete yellow collection, they looked more LEGO to me back then. You also make a very good point saying that LOTR and Hobbit seemed to parents like a more expensive and intimidating castle theme, and I think we all agree that LEGO missed many good opportunities designing or choosing scenes for those expensive sets which made the line a lot less interesting to kids.

I don’t think Helms Deep is the best thing ever, it just looks a lot more realistic as a castle and it has much better “finishing” it almost looks like an AFOL’s MOC compared to other castles we got with weird blue and red stuff, and I’m trying so hard to factor out nostalgia’s influence or else I’d choose 6085 as the best castle ever. 10193 is definitely miles ahead of Helms Deep in terms of creativity, and to me it’s also one of the best sets made by LEGO regardless of the theme.

MAB: I wasn’t making fun of your observation my friend; I was admiring it, and pointing out than others might not have the same keen eye, and therefore cannot be relied on as store reporters. You seem to be spending more time in your store than most of us, heck, some of us don’t even visit stores and buy most of their LEGO online.

The internet will always be the internet: more talk and personal opinions and less facts. The bold claims that LEGO cancelled the so called third LOTR wave because the line didn’t sell good sounds meaningless when it comes from casual observers… they claim to know not just a total view of the international market just by observing some local stores, but they go as far as to think they know how LEGO runs its business… which is funny to say the least.

I'm glad we share a point. Of course Helm's Deep looks more like a MOC than other castles, but I also think that it targets different audiences.

Posted

I buy most of my Lego online too rather than in store. It doesn't stop me checking out stores when doing my weekly shop though.

The good thing about online is that you often know exactly how much stock a store has, and how fast it sells. By looking at stock levels you know sales speeds and also when they restock. I can tell you that Hobbit sales on amazon UK (direct from amazon) have not be good, much slower than wave 1 Hobbit, and slower than both LOTR waves.

Posted

When it comes to the Lord of the Rings theme, I think it really boils down to how awesome wave 1 was and how lack-luster wave 2 was. I was expecting more iconic scenes & characters from the movies, as well as a wave of sets that would rival the quality of wave 1. The Balrog, The Witch-king showdown, the Treebeard encounter, Pelennor... We got none of that. We did get a weird take on Rivendell, half of the Black Gate (um, wtf?), a pirate ship (the absolute last thing on my mind when I think about anything LotR) and a cute but redundant wizard battle (because it was included in another set). I mean, how much more half-assed and uninspiring can it get? Lord of the Rings is about epic battles and heroes overcoming badass ruthless villains. It's not about pirate ships, half built structures & sitting around tables! If sales was the main issue, it's because of set decisions, NOT due to lack of consumer interest. And Lego has only themselves to blame for failing line & the fans.

Posted

^^ It is not surprising that sales have been slow.

TLG have pushed the RRP too high for mediocre sets, so all the AFOLS and LOTR fans have bought one copy of the sets they want

and we are now waiting for 50% sales to buy the other copies we may want.

If any set was miss-named in the history of Lego,

The Battle of Five Armies set is the worst.

It is also WAY overpriced in the UK at £59.99.

£42.99 would have been more appropriate.

Then there is NO generic Dwarf of the Iron Hills, NO Beorning or Animal, except for the disappointingly small "Great Eagle" . NO Generic Man of Lake Town. NO Generic Mirkwood Elf.

Instead the set is filled up with minifigs of characters we already have, Legolas who should not be there at all, and parts for the Orc Ballista. What were the designers thinking?

It might have worked if TLG had produced five battle packs to make the armies?

I know I would have bought at least 3 of each battle pack.

Posted (edited)

Though Lego will never make 5 battlepacks for a line in one wave, I see your point. The bofa sets don't even properly represent even one army. No armored orcs, elves. Dwarves. Etc. There's no way for buyers to have or represent the main climatic scene of the movie in any form. Remember, kids like armies too. Think of green army men.Separate sets for ravenhill and the bigger battlefield would have been perfect.

Main characters are important yes, but dain ironfoot didn't lead a one man army. Smaller sets with one or two regular soldiers and their leaders would have been good, like the wood elf army set. Though the set's wall is pointless as it was not in the movie.

Because many of aus assume that the later middle earth waved performed poorly, its fair to guess that Lego decided to be extremely careful with this last wave by combining scenes to save production costs if this third wave sold poorly. Hence the bofa set that combined two locations.

The wave is very small with 4 sets and could have been better. Though the second wave had few sets too, remember they included the two preview sets.

The witch king battle is very good though. I have 5 of this set and am using the witch king to moc the other wraiths and elrond as elven soldiers

Edited by Bobbtom
Posted

Though Lego will never make 5 battlepacks for a line in one wave unless it's Star Wars, I see your point.

There, I fixed it for you :laugh:

Star Wars regularly gets waves that have 4 battlepacks in em. I would LOVE even 2 cheap BPs released in a single LotR or Hobbit wave (or one mid-priced BP like UHA or MEA released per wave). Regardless, you bring up some other good points. On top of low stock ordered by stores, the third Hobbit wave seems completely uninspired and has minimal new molds. How many new molds did we actually get in that wave, like 3 or 4? Compare that to other waves which have had double or triple and ya, it seems like Lego wasn't expecting much from the third Hobbit wave and as such didn't invest very heavily in it.

Posted

That theory doesn’t sound right; assuming that LEGO saw that the second wave didn’t sell well, then don’t you think they would’ve tried to do better with the third wave, like make better sets that avoids the mistakes which caused the last wave to fail, instead of repeating the same mistakes or miss the final opportunity to make some profit out of this expensive license before it ends?

This theory makes LEGO look like a teenager who’d be disappointed by his failure that he would be depressed and start to hurt himself, do drugs and fail purposely in exams… we’re talking about the biggest toy manufacturer in the world here; with teams of professional marketers and designers, try to give them some credit… perhaps those were the sets they planned to release from the beginning, and they were just spread across three waves instead of two?

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