LEGO LotR - general discussion

[Deathleech]

That theory doesn’t sound right; assuming that LEGO saw that the second wave didn’t sell well, then don’t you think they would’ve tried to do better with the third wave, like make better sets that avoids the mistakes which caused the last wave to fail, instead of repeating the same mistakes or miss the final opportunity to make some profit out of this expensive license before it ends?

Not necessarily. Think about it from Lego's perspective... if they did test or focus groups with their second waves and they performed well, maybe Lego figured it was just a lack of interest in the theme that lead to poor sales? Maybe they sold ok, but not well enough for Lego to invest thousands, or hundreds of thousands of dollars into a bunch of new molds for one last wave? Maybe Lego would have cancelled the line after two waves, but due to their license agreement had to put out a third wave and as such put minimal effort into it? There are TONS of unknowns.

It's not about Lego being disappointed in their failure and hurting themselves, it's a toy company who probably had worse than expected sales with their second waves and figured they wouldn't put the effort into wave 3. I mean you have to remember Lego has limited production capabilities and new molds they can make. Why waste them on the Hobbit when they can better use that production for huge hits like Friends, Star Wars, and City? That's a no brainer for Lego. It seems like Hobbit toys as a whole have performed fairly poorly with kids. Games Workshop, Bridge Direct, and even Lego seem to have underwhelming sales with the theme so that makes me think it's just a lack of interest among kids as much as anything. The lackluster set designs just didn't help.

[Blakstone]

Not only that, but LEGO has an internal process similar to Ideas where their designers. It appears that LEGO designed more sets than we ever got, but whether all of them were slated to be produced or not is anyone's guess.

But the brand managers have to work under more constrains than we realize. Also designers move from project to project. So perhaps the best designers of LotR wave one moved to the Orthanc and were not involved in the other sets in wave 2. LEGO Movie also pulled a lot of resources and designers with it.

I read in an interview that LEGO wanted to satisfy an employee's daughter by having Arwen in a set. I know the AFOLs will say that Eowyn is a better female representation. But most kids do not research 10 year old movies and might not catch that Eowyn was a girl. The sells decision for most kids is the front of the box. So having Arwen in a blue dress is very recognizable to kids.

Each wave gets a Change budget. This budget is not only used for new molds but also for new prints and at a much cheaper level producing existing molds in additional colors. Wave 3 of the Hobbit obviously spent a lot of their change budget on Smaug.

When I read designer interviews I am amazed at how constricting these change budgets are. For example, the spacemen in the Ideas set could have been in black or green as they need legs, torsos, arms, and hands all in the same color. Black pieces are available because of Darth Vader and green because of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.

LEGO does not contain even successful licenses after the source material is over. A LEGO Shareholders Report listed Pirates of the Caribbean as exceeding expectations after the line ended. Even Star Wars cannot endure without source material. It nearly bankrupted LEGO when they tried. Fortunately Lucas and LEGO discovered that and they quickly had something on air whether it was Clone Wars, Rebels, or LEGO Stars Wars Yoda Chronicles.

[Bobbtom]

Not necessarily. Think about it from Lego's perspective... if they did test or focus groups with their second waves and they performed well, maybe Lego figured it was just a lack of interest in the theme that lead to poor sales? Maybe they sold ok, but not well enough for Lego to invest thousands, or hundreds of thousands of dollars into a bunch of new molds for one last wave? Maybe Lego would have cancelled the line after two waves, but due to their license agreement had to put out a third wave and as such put minimal effort into it? There are TONS of unknowns.

It's not about Lego being disappointed in their failure and hurting themselves, it's a toy company who probably had worse than expected sales with their second waves and figured they wouldn't put the effort into wave 3. I mean you have to remember Lego has limited production capabilities and new molds they can make. Why waste them on the Hobbit when they can better use that production for huge hits like Friends, Star Wars, and City? That's a no brainer for Lego. It seems like Hobbit toys as a whole have performed fairly poorly with kids. Games Workshop, Bridge Direct, and even Lego seem to have underwhelming sales with the theme so that makes me think it's just a lack of interest among kids as much as anything. The lackluster set designs just didn't help.

I got the beginnings of this impression from the Dain helmet.Out of all the helmets with feathers that lego has made, all have removable feathers. Why, for Dain then, is the helmet and feather one piece? Well, one mold is cheaper than two. Because of license agreements , the four sets in wave 3 being obligatory sounds very correct, given we have sets from Wave 3 that combines scenes for no reason. Four sets for an entire movie is a skimpy wave. Why does Galadrial have have the same hair piece as elrond? Even the Arwen one would be better, though her minifig is still good. Answer: Two hairs using the same mod is cheaper for production.

I have to agree with the wave two designers probably not being the same as the other ME ones. I've only decided now to get the Wave two hobbit sets because I want to amass a complete collection, but still know exactly why I passed over these sets in 2013. The lackluster set designs made the sets look boring and generic. Smaug came too late and too expensive. It took until wave 3 to get him and his scene in the lonely mountain isn't even in the third movie.

Edited March 3, 2015 by Bobbtom

[Deathleech]

I have to agree with the wave two designers probably not being the same as the other ME ones.

I just want to point out we can tell who most of the set designers were for wave 1 and 2 Middle Earth Sets. They are the ones who present the designer videos for each set. A few have since been removed, but the ones that are left show:

Henrik Saaby Clausen

Gandalf Arrives

Nicholas Groves

Shelob Attacks

The Orc Forge

Martin Klotz

Attack on Weathertop

Uruk-hai Army

Hans Henrik Sidenius

Dol Guldur Battle

Riddles for the Ring

The Goblin King Battle

The Mines of Moria

Bjark Lykke Madsen

An Unexpected Gathering

The Battle of Helm's Deep

Jordan Scott

Attack of the Wargs

Escape from Mirkwood Spiders

Mirkwood Elf Army

Pirate Ship Ambush

Jordan, Bjark, and Hans group effort

Tower of Orthanc

I vaguely remember who did the sets that are missing for the second waves. I remember they were all done by Hans, Bjark, and Jordan though. Those guys were in charge of all the wave one and two Hobbit sets so I assume they did the wave three sets as well. I know they did the wave two LotR sets also. Henrik Saaby Clausen, Nicholas Groves, Martin Klotz worked on the first LotR wave but didn't work on any LotR sets after that. Jordan Scott was new to the Lego team and Attack of the Wargs was one of the first sets he made. I always felt like of the three main Middle Earth designers, Bjark was hands down the best, with Jordan being the worst and Hans somewhere in the middle. This was probably due to Jordan being so new though.

Edited March 3, 2015 by Deathleech

[Robert_88]

Jordan Scott also designed the Mirkwood Spiders and the Pirate Ship Ambush.

[Legoman123]

Why are you disguising this? I'm only wondering, not telling off.

[BrickJagger]

Why are you disguising this? I'm only wondering, not telling off.

Well, there's barely anything to talk about that's on topic, so it's kinda understandable that this would happen. I wouldn't recommend trying to read the last 120 pages of this thread, but it's pretty similar to what's going on now.

Also, relating to the discussion, Jordan received a lot on indirect criticism on this site Bjark? Not so much....

[Deathleech]

Jordan Scott also designed the Mirkwood Spiders and the Pirate Ship Ambush.

Ahh ok. Do you remember who did Black Gates and Wizard Battle? I wanna say Bjark did both, but I think Hans might have done one of them..

[Bobbtom]

Jordan Scott also designed the Mirkwood Spiders and the Pirate Ship Ambush.

Pretty much all the sets that we have the lowest opinions on.

He's new, so we can't blame him too much. His $50 tree illustrates his greenhorn status though.

[Mr. Cube]

Bobbtom: Dain´s helmet is one of the things that I don´t understand. If they did it with the removable plume, they could easily use printed version with plume for Dain and unprinted version without plume for generic Iron Hill dwarf...

Edited March 4, 2015 by Mr. Cube

[Faefrost]

Pretty much all the sets that we have the lowest opinions on.

He's new, so we can't blame him too much. His $50 tree illustrates his greenhorn status though.

Which is a shame. The Pirate Ship Ambush is a superbly designed set. One of the absolute best Lego ships ever. Lots of details, greeblings, things to get into. All with a less cartoony feel than classic Pirates. It's a truly wonderful Lego set. It just isn't the Minas Tirith set the Tolkien fans wanted.

The Spiders set isn't a bad set. The worst thing about it were Legolas and Tauriel. Two characters that were not yet seen in the movie due to the 2 into 3 last minute editing, and once again the Tolkien fans were pissed because the characters were not in the book.

Pretty much all the sets that we have the lowest opinions on.

He's new, so we can't blame him too much. His $50 tree illustrates his greenhorn status though.

I'll even decent his tree. Yeah, like Weathertop its a pointless set besides the figs. But it does pretty well capture the scene in question. Plus it makes a nice small based display stand to legitimately show off the full company hanging in its branches.,not a lot of play value, but hardly horrible. The $50 price point was largely because of the new Warg molds.

[MAB]

On top of low stock ordered by stores, the third Hobbit wave seems completely uninspired and has minimal new molds. How many new molds did we actually get in that wave, like 3 or 4? Compare that to other waves which have had double or triple and ya, it seems like Lego wasn't expecting much from the third Hobbit wave and as such didn't invest very heavily in it.

How are you counting new molds? Smaug alone has 10 or so. Then there is Thorin / crown, Dain, Witch-King, so that is 13 I can think of immediately. Also first wave sets are expected to have more, since they introduce character specific molds such as Fili / Kili hair, why replace it later on for these characters? Balin doesn't need a new hair/beard. For King Thorin in the crown, it makes sense to update the headpiece to wear a crown. But for other characters, there is no need to change their hair, beard, etc. They have already invested in the molds, why change them?

Bobbtom: Dain´s helmet is one of the things that I don´t understand. If they did it with the removable plume, they could easily use printed version with plume for Dain and unprinted version without plume for generic Iron Hill dwarf...

The decided not to have a generic dwarf, so there is no need for them to increase the number of parts to make a generic dwarf possible when they don't intend to have one.

Edited March 4, 2015 by MAB

[Deathleech]

How are you counting new molds? Smaug alone has 10 or so. Then there is Thorin / crown, Dain, Witch-King, so that is 13 I can think of immediately. Also first wave sets are expected to have more, since they introduce character specific molds such as Fili / Kili hair, why replace it later on for these characters? Balin doesn't need a new hair/beard. For King Thorin in the crown, it makes sense to update the headpiece to wear a crown. But for other characters, there is no need to change their hair, beard, etc. They have already invested in the molds, why change them?

Ya, I didn't count Smaug. He seems to be a huge reason the wave seemed so lackluster. A large portion of the new mold budget was undoubtedly spent on him, and the set he is in seems extremely over priced and boring (other than Smaug) to most people.

As for what Lego COULD have used new molds on? I can think of tons. An armored orc or elf would have been nice and something fans have been wanting for years now. A new hair or hat with hair mold for Gandalf that actually looks like it does in the movie? Bolg? There are tons of options.

[Bobbtom]

Smaug should have been in the first wave. He was pretty much one of the main enemies in the first two movies yet we didn't have him in sets. The second movie, "The desolation of Smaug" and lego ridiculously didn't have him even in the second wave. The third is the worse wave to put him in. He's only in the movie for about the first 15 minutes.

[SMC]

Smaug should have been in wave 2 and just in film 2, spitting it when they did just ended the second film badly when it could have been great and made an odd start to film 3.

[Khaled Yousef]

Splitting the two movies into three didn’t just hurt the movies and made them look stretched and boring, it’s also the most plausible explanation why the LOTR and Hobbit waves looked too weak. Combine all the sets that had been released in one introduction wave of classic LOTR and two powerfull Hobbit waves and you get yourself a very successful line as it was originally intended to be.

Deathleech: I agree with you that LEGO didn’t put enough new molds in the third wave, however, what I meant was if LEGO saw that wave 2 did poorly they wouldn’t release another weak wave just to fulfill the license, that would just be so dumb, like “hey, that last wave did so bad because it was weak, let’s make another weak wave to make it even worse”.

They would definitely try to improve things, and they don’t need new molds to do that, better choices of scenes and some battle packs of minifigs with existing molds would’ve done the trick. If they didn’t bother doing that then maybe, just maybe, the line didn’t sell so poorly in their own perspective according to their own target. Leica sells ten lenses a year, Canon sells ten million lenses a year, and each manufacturer fulfilled its target as planned despite what the casual observer might think comparing the two numbers.

I really don’t see why we deal with some complains of some angry disappointed fans on some internet forum as the final statement on how these two lines actually sold (in stores around the entire world and through on-line outlets including resellers). And please don’t give me those “stores had low stock” or “shelves weren’t full of sets” or “Target or Wall-Mart DECIDED to do so and so” or “EVERYONE here reported bad sales in their stores” because these are all random unprofessional observations and wild guesses.

Edited March 4, 2015 by Khaled Yousef

[Dr.Cogg]

I was just looking through my collection and found my old Troll war ship and then I thought to myself TLG made a ship for the castle fantasy line and as I recall, I don't think it did all that well, I remember Walmart selling a lot of them discounted and if it had bad sells TLG should have known better than to make a Pirate Ship for LotR, but this is just speculation on my part.

P.S. The Pirate Ship is a nice set, but they should have saved it for a possible third way.

[MAB]

Ya, I didn't count Smaug. He seems to be a huge reason the wave seemed so lackluster. A large portion of the new mold budget was undoubtedly spent on him, and the set he is in seems extremely over priced and boring (other than Smaug) to most people.

I don't think it is boring at all. There are a lot play features included in the set and hidden sections. I also think the parts used are good too. I've also read quite a lot of positive reviews about the set as a whole, not just Smaug. So I don't think it is right that the set is boring to most people. Concerning the price, yes, it is probably overpriced but then most of the line was. Fortunately most of the sets were on sale at some stage. That just makes this one look even more overpriced.

As for what Lego COULD have used new molds on? I can think of tons. An armored orc or elf would have been nice and something fans have been wanting for years now. A new hair or hat with hair mold for Gandalf that actually looks like it does in the movie? Bolg? There are tons of options.

Yes, and all those would probably have meant skipping new moulds for Smaug. I wouldn't want them to just reuse the existing dragon for Smaug just to get a Bolg.

I really don’t see why we deal with some complains of some angry disappointed fans on some internet forum as the final statement on how these two lines actually sold (in stores around the entire world and through on-line outlets including resellers).

You don't have to deal with them, you choose to read them.

And please don’t give me those “stores had low stock” or “shelves weren’t full of sets” or “Target or Wall-Mart DECIDED to do so and so” or “EVERYONE here reported bad sales in their stores” because these are all random unprofessional observations and wild guesses.

Why not? Lots of observations in random locations that all say the same thing start to build up a complete picture of availability. And in some cases, they are not guesses at all. I have asked in stores that stocked waves 1 and 2 if they are stocking wave 3, and have been told no. That might be an unprofessional observation or a wild guess to you, but to others knowing that a store has chosen not to stock a line is useful information. Again, if you don't want to know about availabilty then don't read the posts about availability. Just because you don't want it doesn't mean others should not be able to discuss it.

[Khaled Yousef]

MAB: you miss understand me my friend, I mean no disrespect to that particular opinion. To quote myself from a previous post you might have missed “… and saying that the line didn’t look like it was very popular is a fairly logical statement that doesn’t require a professional marketer to declare, so I understand what most of you guys say, and I don’t think it’s wrong at all.” You see?

In normal day-to-day usage (deal with something as so) means “consider as so,” “so” being a fact, while (deal with something) usually means “accept and live with.” At least that’s what I think it means.

What I think is that random observations shouldn’t be “considered” as facts; indications maybe, but not facts. Meanwhile I “accept” them as legitimate opinions to be discussed and I respect them as such.

And to reply to what you said: no, a few random locations doesn’t build up a complete picture, and some vague reports from ordinary people here doesn’t create the necessary randomness of a total survey… people go to college to study these methods, you know, there are rules, and they definitely don’t apply to the incomplete observations we see here most of the time.

It seems to me that people who didn’t like the last wave wants to believe that it did so bad LEGO is licking its wounds, and that’s a bias which affects most of those observations. And I say “most” so you don’t think I mean your observation in particular. I’m objecting to a trend, not attacking certain individuals.

If I didn’t like the discussion I wouldn’t be here, I just like to keep logic in check and not stray away from facts biased by personal opinions, that’s all.

We desperately need some good news here to absorb the amount of negative energy that infests all conversations that have anything to do with LOTR and Hobbit sets.

[MAB]

And to reply to what you said: no, a few random locations doesn’t build up a complete picture, and some vague reports from ordinary people here doesn’t create the necessary randomness of a total survey… people go to college to study these methods, you know, there are rules, and they definitely don’t apply to the incomplete observations we see here most of the time.

A few random locations don't build up a complete picture. However, many random locations do though, so long as they are widespread. That is why it is great when more people share there one-off observations. On their own, they are useless (apart from to that person and anyone in the vicinity). Together they are useful. Such collecting of random data is used a lot where you cannot have systematic data - so data on number of wild birds on a particular day, or the date of the first daffodils appearing, etc are often collected by individuals in their own gardens all over a country or continent. One piece of data is insignificant. But together they build a useful picture of what is happening to bird populations or climate.

Just like if one person doesn't see a set in Target or Asda or their local supermarket or toy store, it is not very useful. But if everyone shopping in that brandstore all over their country reports the same, then it is significant. If no-one shares their seemingly insignificant data, then no-one can build a more complete picture.

Edited March 5, 2015 by MAB

[Khaled Yousef]

I agree, but up till now there have been very few reports of such kind to be considered enough randomness to complete a picture of international sales. You need to have different reports from different chains of stores (not just Target), from different countries all over the world (not just the US), plus reports from online buyers also from all around the world (not only LEGO.com but also resellers like BrickLink), and as far as I’m concerned this didn’t happen yet on this forum.

If you want to make a sound random market study, like the one you described with birds which is a legitimate method indeed, then you must go through all the previous posts, see how many individuals actually shared legitimate information and not just echoing opinions, study their diversity considering locations and mediums, eliminate the bias due to dissatisfaction with the product and then you’ll come up with a complete picture.

Be careful also not to double count reports, as some enthusiastic reporters repeat themselves over and over it might make you think there are too many of them.

[mrbean]

I agree, but up till now there have been very few reports of such kind to be considered enough randomness to complete a picture of international sales. You need to have different reports from different chains of stores (not just Target), from different countries all over the world (not just the US), plus reports from online buyers also from all around the world (not only LEGO.com but also resellers like BrickLink), and as far as I’m concerned this didn’t happen yet on this forum.

If you want to make a sound random market study, like the one you described with birds which is a legitimate method indeed, then you must go through all the previous posts, see how many individuals actually shared legitimate information and not just echoing opinions, study their diversity considering locations and mediums, eliminate the bias due to dissatisfaction with the product and then you’ll come up with a complete picture.

Be careful also not to double count reports, as some enthusiastic reporters repeat themselves over and over it might make you think there are too many of them.

I myself am content with the observations of the people that have posted, and realize that it doesn't amount to a statistically significant survey. It's Lego after all :). My observation is that the Hobbit sets were absent from most retailers in the new year. Since then I've seen the sets at more locations but they're still not carried by all the online retailers I regularly check. This suggests to me that these sets aren't as popular as others so these retailers aren't interested in stocking them.

[Deathleech]

Khaled Yousef, I think your problem is you are picturing the third Hobbit wave sales as a metaphorical desert. Everyone is reporting it dry and arid, but you think some magical oasis exist somewhere where the sets were ordered in huge numbers and flying off shelves. That doesn't seem to be the case though. We have members from all over the U.S. and WORLD on these forums and literally no one is reporting amazing stock or sales of the third Hobbit wave. It's not like the first LotR wave where there were mixed reports (despite that wave generally being praised). I'm not talking about one or two isolated reports, but rather dozens. Every report I have seen says the same thing. It's not just from Targets, in a specific area, but people worldwide and from numerous different stores.

If we get 10 people who say the same thing, and no reports of the wave being stocked plentiful or flying off shelves, do you think that data is going to change much when a hundred members report in? Or a thousand? Sure it could, and it's just been an anomaly, but more often than not we will get the same information on a larger scale. Maybe instead of 10 out of 10 reports of bad sales or low stock, we will get 95 out of 100 saying the same.

I don't think it is boring at all. There are a lot play features included in the set and hidden sections. I also think the parts used are good too. I've also read quite a lot of positive reviews about the set as a whole, not just Smaug. So I don't think it is right that the set is boring to most people. Concerning the price, yes, it is probably overpriced but then most of the line was. Fortunately most of the sets were on sale at some stage. That just makes this one look even more overpriced.

I dunno, the whole wave seemed kinda boring to me. The BoFA set was the absolute worst. Then again I am big on the army building so of course it was a let down. The Lonely Mountain set seemed boring, IMO, due to no new minifigures (and only a couple of them included at that), yet another wall that looked nothing like the forge in the movie, and a glorified chair. Smaug was the only standout of the set, everything else seemed like filler in it. Sure we got new prints of some of the dwarves but I didn't find them terribly interesting. All my opinion of course.

Yes, and all those would probably have meant skipping new moulds for Smaug. I wouldn't want them to just reuse the existing dragon for Smaug just to get a Bolg.

Not just Bolg though. If Smaug used 10 new molded pieces, that is a LOT of new molds that could have been used elsewhere. So not just Bolg, but Bolg, armored Orcs, armored Elves, armored Dwarves, new Gandalf hair, and more (sorry I would list others but I haven't even seen the last movie yet. I lost so much interest after seeing how poor the first two movies were compared to LotR, and how the Lego line has been handled). Plus Smaug could have still had several new molded pieces himself.

[Bobbtom]

You'll be more disappointed if you watch the movie. Smuag is in the movie for 15 minutes and makes no sense being in the third wave. He should have been in the lackluster second wave that was titled "Desolation of Smuag", and had his NAME on it., yet lego didn't make smaug until now.

[Blakstone]

The appearance of Smaug changed during the production of the movie. Likely there wasn't time for LEGO to change their work until after they had to have wave 2 complete.