LEGO LotR - general discussion

[Arditi]

I've been watching this thread for a little while and finally decided to sign up to make a pretty simple observation. There are clearly a lot of people here who would like to see the LOTR line continued, speculation will only get you so far, but if each member who posted were to show as much enthusiasm in emailing or contacting Lego personally, it may help to influence their decision in launching a third wave. Just a thought.

[Lego Spy]

I've been watching this thread for a little while and finally decided to sign up to make a pretty simple observation. There are clearly a lot of people here who would like to see the LOTR line continued, speculation will only get you so far, but if each member who posted were to show as much enthusiasm in emailing or contacting Lego personally, it may help to influence their decision in launching a third wave. Just a thought.

Lego watches these forums, so...

Edited December 3, 2013 by Lego Spy

[Deathleech]

You are absolutely correct....

but the statistics is kinda ''screwed''.... now you may ask why and let me tell you.... this statistics is based on the number of sales (TOTAL) not based by set.....

It is easy for City/SW/even Friends to be so high.... just look at the number of sets out there that are available for all those lines....

LOTR/Hobbit had like 5 sets released...... how do you hope to achieve and surpass SW sales with 5 sets vs 20...... not to even compare to City lol....

And why do you think Lego releases so many sets for these themes? It's because they EACH sell so well. Lego releases more sets because they know the demand is there for them. Lego doesn't flood the market with Star Wars sets to make up for each set not selling well on it's own, that's not how it works. If LotR and the Hobbit had amazing sales they too would probably get huge waves or a couple waves per theme each year. It's no surprise they don't though considering the theme is aimed at an older market (while Lego is a much younger market in general), and there is no other tie in besides the movie.

[Faefrost]

You are absolutely correct....

but the statistics is kinda ''screwed''.... now you may ask why and let me tell you.... this statistics is based on the number of sales (TOTAL) not based by set.....

It is easy for City/SW/even Friends to be so high.... just look at the number of sets out there that are available for all those lines....

LOTR/Hobbit had like 5 sets released...... how do you hope to achieve and surpass SW sales with 5 sets vs 20...... not to even compare to City lol....

Well we generally assume that TLG does have accountants. and they are evaluating the sets not just on overall line sales, but on a one to one basis of price point, and a host of other metrics. How many times has a line or group of sets "sold out at the factory" and had to go back to production for more? How are the lines playing out vs estimates. Ninjago this year is probably a fairly good direct comparison to the Middle Earth stuff. The numbers of sets were fairly close. I don't think there is any question that Ninjago sales far surpassed the ME stuff. I get the impression that while the Middle Earth has done well, and is profitable, it might not be quite as good as they were hoping. Which can be a dangerous place to be when the shelves are growing crowded and the theme sitting next to your favorite is far exceeding expectations. (Just ask the Alien Conquest fans about their wave 2.). LotR'sa and The Hobbit most certainly have far exceeded things like PoP and Speed Racer. But I don't think it is doing substantially better than PotC did, and LR may have even edged them out, at least the last LotR release.

[jondesouza]

I think like many others I have concerns that there are some very important locations and characters that are yet to appear in Lego form. The series would also really benefit from a few more Riders of Rohan, perhaps in a battle pack. My riders at the moment won't be installing fear in the Uruk-Hai any time soon!

[Alcarin]

And why do you think Lego releases so many sets for these themes? It's because they EACH sell so well. Lego releases more sets because they know the demand is there for them. Lego doesn't flood the market with Star Wars sets to make up for each set not selling well on it's own, that's not how it works. If LotR and the Hobbit had amazing sales they too would probably get huge waves or a couple waves per theme each year. It's no surprise they don't though considering the theme is aimed at an older market (while Lego is a much younger market in general), and there is no other tie in besides the movie.

Well we generally assume that TLG does have accountants. and they are evaluating the sets not just on overall line sales, but on a one to one basis of price point, and a host of other metrics. How many times has a line or group of sets "sold out at the factory" and had to go back to production for more? How are the lines playing out vs estimates. Ninjago this year is probably a fairly good direct comparison to the Middle Earth stuff. The numbers of sets were fairly close. I don't think there is any question that Ninjago sales far surpassed the ME stuff. I get the impression that while the Middle Earth has done well, and is profitable, it might not be quite as good as they were hoping. Which can be a dangerous place to be when the shelves are growing crowded and the theme sitting next to your favorite is far exceeding expectations. (Just ask the Alien Conquest fans about their wave 2.). LotR'sa and The Hobbit most certainly have far exceeded things like PoP and Speed Racer. But I don't think it is doing substantially better than PotC did, and LR may have even edged them out, at least the last LotR release.

Thing is, we were doing a research, even if you do calculate sales per set of a theme it is completely skewed in favor of more sets per theme thing.... More options = higher chance of buying something.... I can 100% assure you that the worst SW sets are far below ANY LOTR/Hobbit set sales overall, but because they have sooooo many it is bound there will be some hits (even excluding UCS line)

Basic line is

If you have 20 X sets on a shelf and 5 Y sets, customer is more likely to purchase something from X sets because chances are they will ''easier'' find something they like between those 20 X sets....

The 2nd reason is, there is NO WAY LOTR could've done better, and LEGO has only themselves to thank about that, because who will buy 50 Black Gates to get 50 Gandalfs and 50 Mouths and 50 Aragorns???

I would've bought countless of sets myself as a true LOTR fan but I dont need that many named figs... I need soldiers!

Those 2 reasons are 1. and 2. reasons why LOTR/Hobbit sales are worse than they could've been....

and I doubt LR edged them out really....... I think LR had less production than LOTR in my opinion...

[Deathleech]

Thing is, we were doing a research, even if you do calculate sales per set of a theme it is completely skewed in favor of more sets per theme thing.... More options = higher chance of buying something.... I can 100% assure you that the worst SW sets are far below ANY LOTR/Hobbit set sales overall, but because they have sooooo many it is bound there will be some hits (even excluding UCS line)

Basic line is

If you have 20 X sets on a shelf and 5 Y sets, customer is more likely to purchase something from X sets because chances are they will ''easier'' find something they like between those 20 X sets....

Oh, I know there are more sets to chose from and of course more sets/options does contribute to more sales. There is more appeal and completest will want them all regardless if there are 2 or 20. If you took two lines that were identical in popularity and one line only had 5 sets in a wave and the other had 10 of course the one with 10 will do better (as long as they all sell reasonably well and return the investment). It also means more production cost though. Our point is there is a reason Lego decided to make so many sets for Star Wars, City, Friends, etc. They know EACH will sell very well. Sure some might not sell as well as others, but most will do very well. If the Hobbit or LotR was insane popular I am sure we would of seen much larger waves. It's not like Lego just throws a dart at a board and that is the line they decide to put the most effort into and make the most sets for. They chose them because they are huge hits.

I do agree with your second point. I am not sure why Lego advertises buying 2 Black Gates and putting them together, only to have over half the characters in it not be army builders. Or why don't they offer any "true" army builder sets at all when the LotR film was all about the massive scale battles? They already have enough going against them with the theme not being as geared towards younger children as most other themes, and without a ton of advertising like Star Wars.

To be honest, I don't understand why Lego doesn't really take advantage of the building aspect of their line. They could easily make sets that "officially" join together with small alterations or modifications and form much larger ones, or have alternate builds. Minas Tirith? Make 3-4 sets, all priced $40-100 and when you buy all of them you have a huge $250+ set that looks magnificent and can even be made bigger with additional walls/army builders like the Uruk-hai Army set. That and they should also offer additional hair/helm options imo. How easy would it be to include a second head for some of the characters or an extra hair/helm piece for sets that COULD be multiple purchases? In MEA they easily could of included an elven helm and chest plate at minimal cost to Lego (if the reuse the helm mold obviously), and that way all those extra Thranduil's aren't going to waste. They could of also included an additional elf hair piece for those who really want the elves with ears, you now appeal more to them and also people who want the green hood and it only cost Lego a few cents extra but I am sure exponentially would increase sales.

[Darth Punk]

I think you also have to consider who is buying these different lines. TLoR is drawing in a bit different crowd than those who typically buy Star Wars and city sets, let alone friends sets. A company often produces a product targeted at a certain market that they already know is not going to compete with their more popular ones. So you cannot always make a direct comparison because different products are sometimes produced for different reasons. TLG is trying to broaden their audience and lines like TLoR helps to do that. Yes they may not be wildly profitable, but if they bring in new buyers then its worth the effort. The hardest part of business no matter what you are selling is getting new customers. Typically a company's buyers are 85% repeat customers as people tend to stick with what they know. Monster fighters brought me out of the dark ages. And even though I grew up playing Star Wars almost my entire childhood lego Star Wars never was that interesting to me. I do buy,some sets from,the,original three but I also buy from,many other lines as well. So my point is you cannot always evaluate a product solely based on its sales figures. As long as you are not losing money a product though not wildly popular can help to round out your selection and help to diversify your clientele. Trust me lego hasn't become the 2nd largest toy company solely by selling three or four lines.

[SMC]

^ that is a very good point and brings the question of which line is LOTR competing with.

If there was no more LOTR I would spend this money on............

The other line I like is super heroes but as the builds in the sets are not great I only buy the smaller sets for the figs and I dont see this changing so I would just spend a lot less on Lego

I would make a poll but I can,

How much of your lego budget do you spend on LOTR?

How would you use this money if the line was to end?

[Lynx]

SMC, I spend approx. 90 % of my LEGO budget on LotR, 9.9 % on the Hobbit and 0.1 % on individual parts to complement LotR (e.g. hair pieces for Theoden & Eomer).

If the line would end after one more wave, I'd happily return to my dark ages after the Hobbit line is also finished. If LotR has already ended, I won't even purchase any more Hobbit sets. I'm holding out on this year's wave until I know for certain. Collecting things which cannot be completed (and LotR wouldn't be without the missing key scenes) is hugely unsatisfactory to me, so I might as well drop it entirely.

[Deathleech]

SMC, I spend approx. 90 % of my LEGO budget on LotR, 9.9 % on the Hobbit and 0.1 % on individual parts to complement LotR (e.g. hair pieces for Theoden & Eomer).

If the line would end after one more wave, I'd happily return to my dark ages after the Hobbit line is also finished. If LotR has already ended, I won't even purchase any more Hobbit sets. I'm holding out on this year's wave until I know for certain. Collecting things which cannot be completed (and LotR wouldn't be without the missing key scenes) is hugely unsatisfactory to me, so I might as well drop it entirely.

This is pretty much how I feel. The ONLY Lego I buy right now are LotR and Hobbit en mass quantities. I have thought about getting into the Super Heroes theme, but decided against it. If LotR/Hobbit end I will probably finish up getting whatever they offer for these themes but stop buying Lego after that unless they do something REALLY interesting.

If Lego was trying to get me hooked with LotR/Hobbit it worked, but unfortunately I don't find any of their other offerings appealing enough to stay hooked.

Edited December 4, 2013 by Deathleech

[Darth Caedus]

This is pretty much how I feel. The ONLY Lego I buy right now are LotR and Hobbit en mass quantities. I have thought about getting into the Super Heroes theme, but decided against it. If LotR/Hobbit end I will probably finish up getting whatever they offer for these themes but stop buying Lego after that unless they do something REALLY interesting.

If Lego was trying to get me hooked with LotR/Hobbit it worked, but unfortunately I don't find any of their other offerings appealing enough to stay hooked.

I grab the occasional Superhero set for specific heroes that I'm a fan of, but it's a rare event. LOTR and Hobbit are 99% of my purchases right now. If Lego wants to kill the LOTR and Hobbit line and still keep me hooked, they're going to have to make a Game of Thrones theme (I'd spend 10 times as much on that). :P

[Propicz89]

I spend pretty much 100% on LOTR and Hobbit, like ^ said Game of Thrones Lego would vacumn up my money!

[LegoThomas]

Me too. 90% Lotr and 10% hobbit. Sooooo hoping for another lotr wave...

[Blakstone]

Anticipation of LEGO Lord of the Rings brought me out of my Dark Ages. But I bought Kingdoms sets while I waited for the first wave. I would guess that it makes only 40-50% of my LEGO purchases. I have multiples of several sets (Uruk Hai Army X4, Mines of Moria X2, Mirkwood Spiders X2, Warg Attack X2, Mirkwood Elf Guard X 10, and Laketown Guard X 4) but I don't need armies in the thousands. I will likely get a couple of the Mirkwood Elf Outpost. But unlike some here, I don't need massive amounts of elves or orcs. I would welcome a wide variety of Rohan soldiers. I could some Gondor troops as well but I have less interest in them.

Edited December 5, 2013 by Blakstone

[The Executive]

I just recently started collecting sets form this theme. I got the Helms Deep set and I'm slowly getting the rest. Unfortunately most of the first wave of sets are disappearing around here. I really hope they continue with a third wave with a Sauron and a Belrog set.

[TheLegoDr]

I would be torn on the matter. I love LOTR and have loved the figures and sets so I'd hate to see them go. However without them I guess I'd save a lot of money to spend elsewhere...

In reality I'd hope it lasts longer!

[Alcarin]

This is pretty much how I feel. The ONLY Lego I buy right now are LotR and Hobbit en mass quantities. I have thought about getting into the Super Heroes theme, but decided against it. If LotR/Hobbit end I will probably finish up getting whatever they offer for these themes but stop buying Lego after that unless they do something REALLY interesting.

If Lego was trying to get me hooked with LotR/Hobbit it worked, but unfortunately I don't find any of their other offerings appealing enough to stay hooked.

Exactly this....

Ok I went and grabbed Medieval Market Village and that Farm from kingdoms (because those are just pure awesome) but apart from that I mainly bought only LOTR.... ok maybe 10% Hobbit....

If LOTR ends I will spend ALOT less (not like thats a bad thing though) on LEGO....

Atleast my wallet and bank account will be happier :D

[MonkeyCrumb]

Wow. WAY too much Doom & Gloom here!!

Okay, first off, there's a retail game regarding real-estate. There's only just so much shelf space available at Target, TRU, etc. I know Lego has it's own aisles, but the space on the shelves is important. Lego paid a lot for the Hobbit/LOTR license. There will be 2014 3rd movie Hobbit sets. So, Lego will want a "refresh" or new wave to take that shelf space in between now and the next Hobbit film. That's what they've been doing, and a small assortment of even 4 sets or so will fill that gap in between Hobbit movie releases. LOTR is not, and never was, meant to be a better seller than Star Wars, City, etc. It is meant to both recover the cost of the license, keep interest in Middle Earth products, and not give up that real estate space to a competitor. MegaBlocks, Kreo, etc would all love even just a few inches of shelf space in the Lego aisle.

I guarantee we'll see Middle-Earth based products that are new and in-between this current assortment and the next movie. Whether it's LOTR or Hobbit based remains to be seen, as possibly they are hoping that Hobbit 2 does better than Hobbit 1 in sales, in which case more Hobbit 2 sets can be made, and I'm sure they have a 3rd LOTR wave waiting in the wings just in case. We might get a hybrid release of both LOTR & Hobbit sets mixed together, who knows?

After Hobbit 3, I'd expect LOTR to be done with, but I'd love to be wrong. Maybe a 2nd wave of Hobbit 3 might get made, but we'll see. I do expect to see at least a trickle of LOTR sets here and there if Hobbit dominates sales.

As for comparing Alien Conquest 2, that's not even the same ballpark. Lego owned that property, didn't have much cost to recoup by scrapping/transforming it into another line, and could choose to replace it with a different property. Monster Fighters was a very strong seller, yet was a one-and-done wave. I fully expect a summer wave, and I really expect it to be LOTR, because it's a place-holder for the already paid-for Hobbit 3 license.

Also, notice how there's minimal "doubling up" on figure releases? Hobbit 2 is almost all new with just the same Hobbit (main character, so no surprise), and a Gandalf who had very few different "looks", and one repeat character, Thorin, who's in a totally new outfit. None of the other dwarves were re-released, it's as if they are trying to get us as many new figures as possible, and give us new army-builders at the same time. There's a strategy at work here, and it's not the absolute best, but I think it works great for the most part, since they still need to balance and give primary characters as well for the kids.

[Dr.Cogg]

Its hard to say if there will be another lotr wave, they could get replaced by The Lego Movie sets or more Castle sets for all we know.

[MonkeyCrumb]

Its hard to say if there will be another lotr wave, they could get replaced by The Lego Movie sets or more Castle sets for all we know.

Castle sets already exist next to LOTR/Hobbit. Do you see them expanding even MORE Castle to take their place? Also, Lone Ranger is done, and will likely be clearing out the space for the Lego Movie sets. Do you expect a summer Lego Movie wave 2? It would take the place of wave 1 sets on the shelf. Hobbit 2 *just* came out. We *just* got full pics of the Hobbit 2 about a month or so before they released them. They've already announced a Hobbit Lego video game. Chances are very, very high about a 3rd wave of LOTR to fill in the gap for the summer. Relax people! Until we know for certain that it's 100% cancelled, expect to see more LOTR Lego, even if it winds up in a hybrid mixed wave of part Hobbit/part LOTR sets. I highly doubt that the Hobbit 2 sets that *just* came out is going to be all we get until next years Hobbit 3 sets.

[Deathleech]

It makes sense, but what people are worried about most, I think, is the fact there was no LotR advertisement in the second Hobbit wave. Previously each wave advertised the next even if it was a different theme (Hobbit for LotR and vis versa). Lego might be planning on having 2 more Hobbit sets next year, one next summer to go along with the video game being released and to cover material the small winter wave didn't, then a grand finally wave next December. This wouldn't leave any room for another LotR wave.

Edited December 6, 2013 by Deathleech

[Faefrost]

I think the thing that woks best towards there being one more LotR wave is the simple fact that they don't seem to have anything looming to readily replace it. We can safely assume that LR, Galaxy Squad and Castle are done. With the last remnants of MF also disappearing. The next PoTC movie got pushed back. So there seem to be a few holes in the shelves, without a lot of stuff looming that look to be good possible replacements. Simpsons is only 1 set. The Lego Movie while filling some space will probably be taking more from the GS and Castle spots, and some of Chima (which I think will begin winding down after this wave). I'm not seeing any big looming movie or media properties that they don't already have and aren't already filling shelf spaces. TMNTs, DC and Marvel SuperHeroes, Star Wars. There isn't a lot of new stuff that correlates to their target market and business case? So I think hopefully the easiest and best option for them is to probably keep those Middle Earth shelves occupied until after TABA.

Do we have any idea how well specific or individual sets from LotR and the Hobbit have sold? I think a safe guess is Unexpected Gathering (Bag End) has probably been the top seller, nailing that perfect point of classic scene, structure, price point, etc. But what else has done well, and what hasn't? I suspect that Lake Town will do very well? and Moria was probably one of the better ones? But how have some of the others fared?

[Deathleech]

I think Goblin King Battle and Riddles for the Ring did rather poorly based on how much I see them collecting dust on shelves and how much they are constantly being discounted (pretty much impossible not to find GKB discounted for at least 30% at any given time). Mines of Moria and Weathertop seem to of done slightly better than them, but still not amazing. Helm's Deep probably did decent, as did most of the other sets. I think the best sellers were Uruk-hai Army and An Unexpected Gathering so far. All of this is just based on personal observation though, not hard statistics or facts.

As for what could Lego have next summer to fill the gap left by LotR? I think another Hobbit wave. Two Hobbit waves could easily happen considering this winter wave was so small.

[BlueberryWaffles]

If TLG scraps the Tolkien themes, I won't stop buying LEGO, but I will buy MUCH less. What I buy:

All LOTR and Hobbit sets

Some TMNT sets

A few Marvel sets if I like them

That's pretty much it. LOTR and Hobbit is a lot of my buying. If they quit it, I'll probably start focusing on other collections that I have, like Playmates' TMNT line. And buy that NECA Gollum to fill the hole in my collecting.

Edited December 7, 2013 by Tolkien