LEGO LotR - general discussion

[BrickBob Studpants]

I guess we shouldn't read too deep into this, I checked last year's spring catalogs (on youtube) and it appears one of them (the one with Yoda on the front) didn't include any Middle-Earth sets whereas the other one (with the Z-95 headhunters on the cover) did

[Faefrost]

It says it's the Spring 2014 catalog on the front. Like Blakstone points out, it has all the new sets. Simpsons House, new Star Wars, Chima, Super Heroes, etc. It also has the Mixels. Not a single advertisement for the Hobbit or LotR though, not even a single page like in the past few catalogs.

It has all the new Spring sets. The last Hobbit wave was out with the movie. The next will not be out until fall. I wouldn't read anything into it. We already know no LotR sets in 2014.

[Deathleech]

It has all the new Spring sets. The last Hobbit wave was out with the movie. The next will not be out until fall. I wouldn't read anything into it. We already know no LotR sets in 2014.

I know, but usually they list all the recently released older sets don't they? They have things in the catalog like older Chima sets (even Cragger's Command Ship!), the D2C sets from last year like the Sydney Opera House, and the new Ninjago sets which were released around the same time as the second Hobbit wave. There is no Middle-Earth at all though.

[Mahtion]

I have more sad news and observations. My local target for this first time I have seen has no LOTR or Hobbit sets at all, no signs and no shelf placement. It seems as soon as the hype for DoS died down, retailers just abandoned related merchandise. I know that some big waves have come out recently like Lego movie and Star Wars 2014 so there is limited set space but that is really sad.

[The_Chosen_1]

Target stores in my state have been clearancing out Desolation of Smaug sets; I've never seen such new sets being clearances before. I'm really starting to get concerned for the future of the Middle-earth sets. :-(

[Hammerhand]

Amazon's prices seem to be going down on the Dos sets also. DGA is $15, and DGB and LTC are both $48. Also, Battle at the Black Gate is $44 now, and CoE is $22. And with stores lowering the prices it's got me worried about what's going on. It's really not looking good for Lego Middle Earth unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong though.

[mrfootball]

Buy them now...you'll wish you did later.

[Boettner Builds]

Buy them now...you'll wish you did later.

This is what I'm doing now. As I see them with red stickers at Wal-Mart and Target I have been buying them up. Doubles sometimes and in a rare case (Bag End) tripple. After coming out of my dark ages, and seeing CRAZY prices for sets I've missed, I will not let the go ones go by...

[atreyu2112]

Target clearances everything once they do resets. They tend to carry what is ultra current & hip. Quick cash grab mentality. They do this with all movie product. Same thing with Walmart. If they were disappearing in TRU or The Lego Shop with no restock, then I would worry. But there's nothing going on. They only put 4 sets out for DOS, lol. It's not like there's a ton to choose from to begin with. The wave 2 LotR stuff has been out almost a year... and we've already discussed how lack-luster that wave really is, and again it too was only 4 sets. This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that Target and Walmart have gotten them off shelves. It's not like these are dedicated toy stores to begin with.

We KNOW there are at least 4 more sets coming for Hobbit. The Smaug will sell. If the other sets are good, they will sell too. And TLG KNOWS what we want from a last LotR wave. Relax. Catch up on your collections and enjoy the break for your wallet while you can.

Edited March 7, 2014 by atreyu2112

[SirBlake]

Thank you for being the voice of reason. I feel the same way.

[Deathleech]

Target clearances everything once they do resets. They tend to carry what is ultra current & hip. Quick cash grab mentality. They do this with all movie product. Same thing with Walmart. If they were disappearing in TRU or The Lego Shop with no restock, then I would worry. But there's nothing going on. They only put 4 sets out for DOS, lol. It's not like there's a ton to choose from to begin with. The wave 2 LotR stuff has been out almost a year... and we've already discussed how lack-luster that wave really is, and again it too was only 4 sets. This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that Target and Walmart have gotten them off shelves. It's not like these are dedicated toy stores to begin with.

We KNOW there are at least 4 more sets coming for Hobbit. The Smaug will sell. If the other sets are good, they will sell too. And TLG KNOWS what we want from a last LotR wave. Relax. Catch up on your collections and enjoy the break for your wallet while you can.

I think you are being a little too optimistic. Target and Wal-Mart carry a wave for at least 5-6 months. If it is flying off shelves and selling well they will keep re-ordering it. Why do you think the 2014 Lego retail catalog listed LotR sets when no new ones are being released in 2014? Those were obviously the 2013 sets, but Lego is still offering them to retailers. Target and WM are not going to stop carrying DoS Hobbit sets after a mere three months, especially if they are flying off shelves. They had Lone Ranger stuff for what, 6+ months and still have some 2013 LotR sets? The only reason TRU still has anything is because they jack their prices up so high they move way less stock. My local TRU had Mines of Moria, Helm's Deep, etc. LONG after they were retired because no one in their right mind is going to buy those sets for $20-30 over MSRP when they are available elsewhere for much cheaper.

I am sorry but I am pretty sure retailers just didn't order a lot of Hobbit to begin with due to poor second LotR wave sales. Even when the wave two Hobbit sets were first released on the end caps at Target I remember there only being like 2-3 of each set and that was a fresh stock. The Lego Movie and Ninjago stuff, on the other hand, was over flowing the shelves.

[SirBlake]

I just found the monkey creator set on clearance. I don't think it's been out for 3 months. Does that mean there won't be anymore creator sets? I don't think so.

[Mahtion]

Amazon's prices seem to be going down on the Dos sets also. DGA is $15, and DGB and LTC are both $48. Also, Battle at the Black Gate is $44 now, and CoE is $22. And with stores lowering the prices it's got me worried about what's going on. It's really not looking good for Lego Middle Earth unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong though.

I wonder why DGB is as cheap as TLC? I would want the TLC to be cheaper, around $35 before paying for it.

[Deathleech]

I just found the monkey creator set on clearance. I don't think it's been out for 3 months. Does that mean there won't be anymore creator sets? I don't think so.

Sales and clearances are one thing. Obviously if a single set isn't selling well it will be put on clearance. That isn't an entire wave, that is a single set stores have surplus of or hasn't sold as well as they wanted. If a store is running some sort of sale several sets will be included in it even if they were just released. Not ordering an entire wave or re-stocking it is a whole nother issue though. Just look at your local Target or Wal-Mart. Do you honestly think they did really well with 2013 Middle-Earth sets? I don't. What I saw was a lot of sets sitting around warming shelves for the LotR wave (especially Council of Elrond which was deeply clearanced to over 40% and STILL has sets collecting dust), and then the Hobbit wave was slapped onto shelves with seemingly little care at all. They were put on an end cap display with Ninjago and The Lego Movie and there were only 2-3 of each set with DGB totally missing from most displays. There have been few restocks and no dedicated display space for the sets in the Lego aisle.

[SirBlake]

Deathleech, I see the point you're making. The problem I'm seeing is that we're talking about retail distribution on such a massive scale that what happens on a local level is not necessarily indicative of a national trend or a concerted effort by that retailer. I have a pattern of 5 Walmarts and 4 Targets that I hit on a regular basis and none of them are consistently discounting or clearancing the same things at any given time. Only one target was ever stacked deep with council of Elrond and they have never been discounted or put on clearance so there they sit to this day. Also, I never once saw the endcap activity that you are describing.

I'm not trying to counter your supposition that middle earth as a collective theme isn't performing as well as some other themes. I'm just saying that retail distribution and clearance behavior on a local level is so inconsistent that it is a poor key indicator of the big picture and therefore insufficient to draw conclusions from as to what TLG and big retailers intentions really are.

I think that we can all agree that the future of LOTR is not bright based on the complete lack of news at either toy fairs or official TLG literature, and that we will be getting at least one final Hobbit wave based on those same factors.

[Sasaki]

Not trying to be optimistic with the current situation with my favorite Lego line and I do not really know much about the sales plans and particular circumstances of those retail stores in US, UK or any other European countries, but here in Asia, specifically in Korea and Japan as I travelled back and forth weekly, I have seen local official Lego stores to re-stock the first and second wave of Middle Earth sets so many times and the Lego communities of these countries really fond of collecting LOTR minifigures and building LOTR MOC to the extent that I bet if you have seen a MOC of Helm's Deep battle with over 1500 minifigures created by Koreans, I guarantee a majority of them is too shy to show off their collections which would not be dwarfed by the mentioned Helm's Deep MOC one.

Personally I have seen with my own eyes one of my friends to purchase 30 of the set Pirates Ship Ambush just to get the ships solely to recreate the scene of Umbar Pirates sailing to Minas Tirith, thanks to him I got 60 of the gorgeous Soldiers of the dead which are glowing and taking a part of my collection. You can imagine that not all of them can communicate effectively using English to surf the foreign websites to get pieces and minifigures from Bricklink or ebay so most of the time, they purchased sets just to get enough pieces to build their own creations, and in this particular case, Middle Earth sets have been driving them crazy with a variety of wonderful minifigures and special color bricks. So same case with Eurobricks, not so many of them would come here to confirm about the popularity of Lego LOTR&Hobbit and how fast the shelves have been cleared and re-stocked with those sets.

Just few lines of my thought which I kept for myself to look forward for more Middle Earths sets coming after next or the next 2 years, it's fine since I'm still busy collecting minifigures of the previous sets and I guess the longer the time that research&development department of Lego takes to put ideas and notable scenes from the last LOTR movies into sets, the more surprising and awesome they would be.

[Legoman123]

That's a big drop in price. I'm going to order those now before it's to late.

[The Brownie]

Hi guys I have been away from internet for quite a while now and I have been in the dark for ages! (Didnt enter the dark ages though :-D )

Abyway I was just wondering is a 3rd wave confirmed for LOTR?

[Robert_88]

No ;)

[Deathleech]

I'm not trying to counter your supposition that middle earth as a collective theme isn't performing as well as some other themes. I'm just saying that retail distribution and clearance behavior on a local level is so inconsistent that it is a poor key indicator of the big picture and therefore insufficient to draw conclusions from as to what TLG and big retailers intentions really are.

Oh I know it's not perfect and it doesn't give us exact data or anything, but it does seem rather consistent. Look at all the comments in this thread. Almost everyone seems to be experiencing the same thing. There is either little or no space for the DoS Hobbit sets released just three months ago. None are in stock either. And it's not just starting now, it happened like a month after they were released.

I get what you are saying though. When the first LotR wave was released we had reports from people who had apparently talked to their Lego store managers and had been told of poor sales. The thing is, we had others who reported great sales and the Lego CEO said sales were strong for the LotR theme when asked about licensed set sales in general. Now though, everything seems to be pointing to the same thing. No DoS Hobbit sets at any WM or Target stores anymore.

To me it seems pretty apparent. Lego had a pretty strong 2012 Middle-Earth line up but then dropped the ball. Maybe the first wave didn't preform as well as they hoped (how well they expected on a 10 year old license is anyone's guess), but it still did reasonably well. Then wave two rolled around and sales seemed to really plummet, especially on the LotR stuff due to lackluster sets and scenes chosen.

[Robert_88]

It depends on how TLG analyses the poor sales of the second wave. Are they a result of the wrong sets or because of a lack of interest in the theme.

[wesker]

It depends on how TLG analyses the poor sales of the second wave. Are they a result of the wrong sets or because of a lack of interest in the theme.

Hopefully the former.

Assuming the third wave was originally part of the second before being split into two, I wonder how far along the sets would be? If they already have a bunch of new molds developed then it would be a waste not to release them. If we don't see a third wave at retail it would be nice if it can at least get a limited run on Shop@Home.

[atreyu2112]

First off... TLG hasn't reported ANY sales numbers. So anyone saying sales were poor for this line is purely speculating. Unless TLG comes out and states how the line is performing... just STOP IT. Seriously.

Secondly, Lego has a TON of new product hitting shelves this spring. And I mean a LOT. You have multiple new Lego Movie, Star Wars, Marvel/DC, TMNT... the list goes on. Did y'all see the catalog? Then there's the summer product releases, etc...

Again, stores like Target & Walmart have only so much space dedicated to Lego product. They didn't JUST clearance LotR & Hobbit. They clearanced all 2013 product to make room for all that new product coming VERY soon. How else would they stay current with product?

Don't freak out just because they clearanced some recent sets. That's NOT a sign that the line is doing good OR bad. That's just how it is these days with ALL toy lines.

The BEST thing y'all can do is continue to support the line. Pick up the sets you are missing or on the fence with. Pick up the new Hobbit sets when they hit. Get some sets for friends as gifts. Keep jumping on their Facebook, tell them you want more LotR sets. Email them continuously.

I really don't think we will hear anything either way until at least SDCC. I would even give it until this fall for some sort of announcement. I think we will get at least 1 more wave.

[Deathleech]

First off... TLG hasn't reported ANY sales numbers. So anyone saying sales were poor for this line is purely speculating. Unless TLG comes out and states how the line is performing... just STOP IT. Seriously.

Lego almost never announces sales for individual themes unless they are one of the top three or four talked about on an earnings report. If a line is doing bad Lego isn't going to say anything about it nor announce the line is ending soon when they still have sets on shelves. This would hurt current sales. We talked about this awhile back. The ONLY way we know how well a line is doing is based on our own observations. By the time we know a line is ending it has already ended (no new waves for 2015 would be an obvious indicator the theme is done).

Secondly, Lego has a TON of new product hitting shelves this spring. And I mean a LOT. You have multiple new Lego Movie, Star Wars, Marvel/DC, TMNT... the list goes on. Did y'all see the catalog? Then there's the summer product releases, etc...

Again, stores like Target & Walmart have only so much space dedicated to Lego product. They didn't JUST clearance LotR & Hobbit. They clearanced all 2013 product to make room for all that new product coming VERY soon. How else would they stay current with product?

Right, but the thing is I still see dedicated space in these stores to other themes like TMNT and Superman all from last year and all released waaaaay before the DoS Hobbit sets. What explanation is there for having old sets like this still on shelves but all the Hobbit: DoS sets are gone without space to be re-stocked? The Hobbit sets aren't even 3 months old compared to those others I mentioned which are well over 6 months old. The ONLY logical explanation is poor sales and/or stores didn't order much stock because they didn't expect many sales. Sorry, I am not trying to be a downer but it seems pretty obvious...

Don't freak out just because they clearanced some recent sets. That's NOT a sign that the line is doing good OR bad. That's just how it is these days with ALL toy lines.

We aren't talking about a few sets clearanced here. I understand even the best selling theme will go on clearance or sale or have some sets that tank. Heck, Amazon will usually discount new sets 20-25% within the first month or two of them being released. We are talking about a three month old wave already disappearing from most stores with no space to be re-stocked though. Even Lone Ranger from last year lasted 6-8 months in stores. I am sorry but there is NO excuse for only having a brand new wave in stores for 3 months, especially when it was barely stocked to begin with. Please tell me any current or past wave (not set, an entire wave) that was only stocked 3 months that wasn't a total bomb? I am sorry guys, I hate to be such a downer but we can't be naive about things either. It's one thing to hear a few isolated Lego store manager reports about sales. It's another when two of the largest retailers in America only carry a line for 3 months and pretty much EVERYONE is seeing the same thing.

Edited March 11, 2014 by Deathleech

[Sir_Basil_Ashton]

* delete *

Edited March 11, 2014 by Sir_Basil_Ashton