Rick Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 One townie for a scum is a pretty good result at this stage of the game. Let's hope li'l Trumpet was able to accomplish something with his little sting. I think it has been established already that we can't draw any definitive conclusions from last night's kill. Now, based on what Walter pointed out, I believe it is more likely for the scum to have been blocked (probabilities 3/22) than the Vig to have been blocked (probability 1/22). Uhm... This game isn't conventional at all, but I still think it'd be a single scum performing the kill, which means the scum killer has the exact same probability of getting blocked as the vig. The town had one in EB Mafia I and there was no mention/allusions of/to the role being cut. Maybe, just maybe, the blocker will talk to a trusted player and hopefully we will be handed a day II lynch on a silver platter .... wishful thinking! If the failed kill is due to a successful block and if the blocked player is scum and if the blocker is town, it'd still be a risky move to come forward for the blocker, even in private. If the scum know we're lynching someone based on strong night actions results, the other scum team would also be handed someone to contact on a silver platter. I'm sure li'l Cam could tell you all about it if his big behind hadn't exploded yesterday morning. Ha, I knew Li'l Danny's case against me was bull. Well, good for his death, then. So, you're implying you're the towniest of town now? As li'l Zeph has just pointed out, with two scum teams it means nothing at all. And, now that I think about it, if li'l Danny was a member of the recruiters, you'd make an excellent conversion target after having been accused by him.
Capt. Redblade Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 It's a shame we had to lose Li'l TrumpetKing so early. Do we know if he learned anything useful before his death? Good thing we did get a Scum, though. Kudos to whichever side got to Li'l Danny! Oh, I forgot. Hey! Li'l Peanuts! You should do some weight training, how else are you going to bold your votes? I'm not going to let you have all the fun. Hey, Peanuts! Your mistake yesterday really bold me over!
Scouty Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 There are a few people pinging my radar. Lil' Scouty has yet to really say anything useful. He's playing with the make fun of Lil' Nutty Nut (who deserves it, admittedly) but isn't doing much else in the form of thinking. Interestingly enough, he is saying that Danny's case against him was bull. Trying to clear himself because a scum accused him, but we know that's not a valid defense because the scum might not know each other. Yesterday when accused of not being helpful he said "why not go after someone else who doesn't speak... like Lil' The Boy Wonder." Enough deflecting suspicion, tell us what you think, Scouty! I've said everything I've had to say, so far. I told you what I thought, you're just not listening. Apparently I didn't fulfill the 10,000 word quota Seriously, is there anything I can do that's not just going to be misperceived by others and this guy who says he wants to go after the quiet folks but doesn't actually bother to name them? You're starting to look like Danny's last minute vote.
Palathadric Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 I have to say Li'l Nightshroud had me rather suspicious with his comment at the end of yesterday. Could he be scum trying to warn his other team out there not to fall for Trumpet's ploy? Li'l Foog pointed him out yesterday, and I think it may be something worthwhile to pursue. I'm looking back on Day 1, but apart from that he hasn't really bumped my scumdar too much. Li'l 'Nuts it was pretty unbold of you not to bold your vote yesterday. There's a saying "bold die young," perhaps you're trying to avoid an early death by your lack of boldness. :huh: Not a very townie thing to do. And what do you know? I got the: wrong.
Piratedave84 Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 SNIP Uhm... This game isn't conventional at all, but I still think it'd be a single scum performing the kill, which means the scum killer has the exact same probability of getting blocked as the vig. SNIP true although what I meant was more like: there was a 1 in 3 out of 22 .. if that makes sense .... whereas the vig is 1 in 1 out 22 .. again if it makes sense! yeah .. this logic is flawed .... SNIP If the failed kill is due to a successful block and if the blocked player is scum and if the blocker is town, it'd still be a risky move to come forward for the blocker, even in private. If the scum know we're lynching someone based on strong night actions results, the other scum team would also be handed someone to contact on a silver platter. I'm sure li'l Cam could tell you all about it if his big behind hadn't exploded yesterday morning. SNIP Hence the "wishful thinking"!
Scouty Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 So, you're implying you're the towniest of town now? As li'l Zeph has just pointed out, with two scum teams it means nothing at all. And, now that I think about it, if li'l Danny was a member of the recruiters, you'd make an excellent conversion target after having been accused by him. Uhm, no. Not that this implies I am scum either. It only ensures that I'm not on his team. Thanks for leaving out the option that I might be town. Furthermore, weren't there several people who said that they were convertible yesterday? I may be mistaken, but they'd be more likely targets than I for conversion (though not to forget the possibility of watching, but there's still the chance that the scum would choose the least likely choice to be watched). To continue on that thought, the only reason (the most logical to me, anyways) that Danny voted for me was because I already had 3 votes against me. It was his attempt to put more heat on me so that I would be put under further scrutinization today, and it seems to be working. I hope to extinguish that because, and I give you my word, I'm as green today as I was yesterday. Doesn't that sound more likely? More logical than your "ifs"?You must understand that as a townie, I'm a bit annoyed that some of these behavior analysis are incorrect, in that I am doing things to fool you (I.e., "He's playing with the make fun of Lil' Nutty Nut..."), when they are, in fact, genuine. After my last stress-filled schoolyard game, I made it a point to relax more this time around (nor does this mean I will not do my job to get scum, as some of you think. Thanks for your wonderful insight into my own mind, I truly did not know what it held). From my perspective, this is becoming a game of scapegoat, and it's becoming to get to the point where there's nothing I can do to convince you. No, I do expect to be scrutinized and I do welcome it, but then it gets to the point where it's unreasonable scrutiny.
Endgame Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 One scummo down! To be honest, I am surprised that Trumpet turned up town - though I am kind of surprised that he deduced Danny was scum, since he seemed to be the only one wanting to lynch him, although he was indeed being quiet. Did Trumpet have contacts with anybody? Though Li'l Zepher's point about deflecting suspicion rings true. Scouty was also the 2nd place lynch candidate yesterday, so he seems as good of a place to start as any today.
Piratedave84 Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 Uhm, no. Not that this implies I am scum either. It only ensures that I'm not on his team. Thanks for leaving out the option that I might be town. Furthermore, weren't there several people who said that they were convertible yesterday? I may be mistaken, I think you are; several people stated that no one knew whether or not they were "convertible" but no one ever said "I am convertible". The only thing we know for a fact about conversions is that 6-ish people will be convertible and that PRs can also be converted and loose their abilities.
Endgame Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 Uhm, no. Not that this implies I am scum either. It only ensures that I'm not on his team. Thanks for leaving out the option that I might be town. Furthermore, weren't there several people who said that they were convertible yesterday? I may be mistaken, but they'd be more likely targets than I for conversion (though not to forget the possibility of watching, but there's still the chance that the scum would choose the least likely choice to be watched). To continue on that thought, the only reason (the most logical to me, anyways) that Danny voted for me was because I already had 3 votes against me. It was his attempt to put more heat on me so that I would be put under further scrutinization today, and it seems to be working. I hope to extinguish that because, and I give you my word, I'm as green today as I was yesterday. Doesn't that sound more likely? More logical than your "ifs"? You must understand that as a townie, I'm a bit annoyed that some of these behavior analysis are incorrect, in that I am doing things to fool you (I.e., "He's playing with the make fun of Lil' Nutty Nut..."), when they are, in fact, genuine. After my last stress-filled schoolyard game, I made it a point to relax more this time around (nor does this mean I will not do my job to get scum, as some of you think. Thanks for your wonderful insight into my own mind, I truly did not know what it held). From my perspective, this is becoming a game of scapegoat, and it's becoming to get to the point where there's nothing I can do to convince you. No, I do expect to be scrutinized and I do welcome it, but then it gets to the point where it's unreasonable scrutiny. Stupid ol' li'l Endy didn't even notice the second page... but now that I have something to analyze! I find this statement pinging my scumdar more then anything you have said prior. In a game where your greatest weapon is scrutiny, why do you say that it is becoming unreasonable? Being defensive in one thing - but you're getting jumpy.
Scouty Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 I find this statement pinging my scumdar more then anything you have said prior. In a game where your greatest weapon is scrutiny, why do you say that it is becoming unreasonable? Being defensive in one thing - but you're getting jumpy. Yes, greatest weapon that also leads to town deaths. Not all scrutiny is good scrutiny, or rather, scrutiny risks becoming tunnel vision and we risk losing things we don't want to lose, such as town members, like me. From my point of view, it's unreasonable (or almost so). That is what I'm thinking now on those questioning me. Don't mistake that in me thinking that all scrutiny is unreasonable.
Nightshroud99 Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 A sting huh, I suppose that is a decent gambit at the end of your life. Somebody probably told lil Trumpet to do this however, otherwise I doubt anyone would have believed what he said if info was learned, until today. Hopefully something came out of it. Yeah I called him out, I think everyone was thinking the same thing as me. I mean come on, it's pretty dumb for a scum to fall for a ploy like that; and if he was scum I hoped to put some seeds of doubt in anyone trying to contact him. It's a really big gamble for scum to make on day 1, whether pulling the ploy themselves or contacting Trumpet. As for Dannylonglegs, I really hadn't paid much attention to what he was doing yesterday. I will go back and read, when I have a few minutes. Of course, someone will probably post what he's said before that. Good on you future sleuth. Only one kill is interesting, I can't say I have anything to add though. Either the vig or scum killer was blocked, or we lynched the vig. Preferably the former, in which case the blocker knows what's up.
Pandora Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 The thing I can't shake is that Danny is usually fairly obvious when he's scum (he may not appreciate me saying that, but never mind), and he looked pretty town to me yesterday. And aside from all the other myriad of possibilities that have been discussed, we haven't considered that Danny may have been converted by scum and killed the same night. If so, then taking anything he says as being 'scummy' or false may be wrong. If Scouty were scum, for instance, Scouty's team may have thought it beneficial to convert Danny. However somebody on the opposing scum team or the vig, for reasons as yet unclear, may have also decided to kill Danny. Possibly the killing scum team to frame Scouty? Ha, I knew Li'l Danny's case against me was bull. You may have thought that, but you still haven't answered the points he made against you, which actually seemed like reasonable points to me.
Hinckley Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 Sorry Li'l Trump but thank you for attempting to catch some Scum and making the best of your lynch. Hopefully he shared any lead he had with someone and that person can try to cultivate a strong lead for us. What I learned in EB I was to be cautious with info and strategies. I think most Townies could imagine that Li'l Trump might've been conducting a sting. When Li'l Night pointed it out, it did seem like he could've been warning his counterpart team not to fall for it. If you are Town Li'l Night, you need to be more careful. Obligatory statement on the Night's happenings aside, I really am stoked to have a dead Scum this early. In EB I it seemed like we'd never catch one and only finally did right before they killed us all. So, whether its great job to the big or Ha ha to the Scum, it's a great result for Night One. Stupid phone!! VIG.
Walter Kovacs Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 ...though I am kind of surprised that he deduced Danny was scum, since he seemed to be the only one wanting to lynch him, I placed a vote on Danny fairly late in Day 1, but switched to Trumpet after his "Confession".
CorneliusMurdock Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 I placed a vote on Danny fairly late in Day 1, but switched to Trumpet after his "Confession". Good for you. That's a nice theory, Li'l Pandy, but I wouldn't think it'd be likely that the Danny/Scouty thing was that significant to cause both scum teams to go after Danny. Danny would have to be on the recruiting side either way but I'm sorta hoping that he had some ability that the scum will miss.
Peanuts Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 The thing I can't shake is that Danny is usually fairly obvious when he's scum (he may not appreciate me saying that, but never mind), and he looked pretty town to me yesterday. And aside from all the other myriad of possibilities that have been discussed, we haven't considered that Danny may have been converted by scum and killed the same night. If so, then taking anything he says as being 'scummy' or false may be wrong. If Scouty were scum, for instance, Scouty's team may have thought it beneficial to convert Danny. However somebody on the opposing scum team or the vig, for reasons as yet unclear, may have also decided to kill Danny. Possibly the killing scum team to frame Scouty? You may have thought that, but you still haven't answered the points he made against you, which actually seemed like reasonable points to me. To be honest, I doubt the scum team would have converted Li'l Danny after the way he played in the Pearl (no offense, I really don't want to be mean or complain about him, but he was killed for a reason). It is odd that we all together asked if he was town right before he was revealed, though. I wonder if he might have been a Dead Miller? But that role doesn't make sence without an investigator, does it?
Hinckley Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 I wonder if he might have been a Dead Miller? But that role doesn't make sence without an investigator, does it? A what? If you're a miller, your real alignment is revealed when you die. As far as having a miller without an investigator, I seem to remember mr. def posting a list of potential ways the conversion wouldn't work for the mason and one was a potential Miller. Li'l Corn and Li'l Rick, why do you both seem to think Danny was a recruiter? I'm very busy today and I feel I missed something regarding that. Oh duh, do you mean just in the scenario that he was killed by the Scum killers? Or is it something else?
Zepher Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 Hell, in theory he could have been converted and killed all in one go. And aside from all the other myriad of possibilities that have been discussed, we haven't considered that Danny may have been converted by scum and killed the same night. If so, then taking anything he says as being 'scummy' or false may be wrong. Great minds... though strangely, hearing that from another person seems a little scummy, as in it seems you're telling us to discount what he said. Scouty, you're getting mighty bristly. Share your suspicions. In fact, quote to me one time you attempted to contribute. You keep saying "accusing me is ridiculous, I'm helping/have shared what I want to share". I'm not discounting Earthling emotions because you- er- we all get a little angry when accused, but tell us why we're wrong in specifics, not broad strokes! He had to be a recruiter if the SCUM killed him... which they seem to be assuming they did... maybe they know something we don't.
Peanuts Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 Oh duh, do you mean just in the scenario that he was killed by the Scum killers? Or is it something else? No, I mean the scenario, that he was converted before he was killed (by either side). And by Dead Miller I mean a Miller who isn't cleared right upon his death. Not that I really believe that, it seems far more logical that he was scum to begin with. What I really meant to say is that for metagame-y reasons I don't think the scum would have converted Li'l Danny.
Hinckley Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 So, you're implying you're the towniest of town now? As li'l Zeph has just pointed out, with two scum teams it means nothing at all. And, now that I think about it, if li'l Danny was a member of the recruiters, you'd make an excellent conversion target after having been accused by him. That's a nice theory, Li'l Pandy, but I wouldn't think it'd be likely that the Danny/Scouty thing was that significant to cause both scum teams to go after Danny. Danny would have to be on the recruiting side either way but I'm sorta hoping that he had some ability that the scum will miss. He had to be a recruiter if the SCUM killed him... which they seem to be assuming they did... maybe they know something we don't. They may know something we don't but not because of what they've said about which team Danny was on. I was reading too quickly, catching up from a very busy morning. Both statements mention he would've been a recruiter for the theories they are each floating. No, I mean the scenario, that he was converted before he was killed (by either side). And by Dead Miller I mean a Miller who isn't cleared right upon his death. Is that a thing? I can't imagine why someone would use a role like that, but I suppose anything's possible. If he was a bad conversion target, I would assume then that he was Scum to start, not that he was a Dead Miller. That would just be totally ducked. Well, I found it on Mafiawiki, as a variation of Miller: A rather controversial twist is the Death Miller, whose alignment is shown as "Mafia" by the Moderator upon death. This has been argued and discussed in Ethics Threads as a source of distrust in the Moderator, which most people feel should not be tolerated. Thus, the Death Miller is an particularly scarcely-used role even in bastard mod games. I doubt Danny was a Death Miller.
CorneliusMurdock Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 I agree. I highly doubt Danny was a death miller. I don't see Mr. Def resorting to such strange things in what's supposed to be a relatively transparent game concept-wise. I'm not claiming any kind of special knowledge. It just stands to reason that if he were killed by scum, the killing team wouldn't have offed one of their own.
Pandora Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 Great minds... though strangely, hearing that from another person seems a little scummy, as in it seems you're telling us to discount what he said. Apologies for not seeing you'd already said that, but it's ok for you to say it, but not ok for me to make that point? I don't understand that. I'm not at all saying that what Danny said should be discounted, I am saying that when we do look back at what he said, it is possible he might have said it from a town point of view. Both Danny being scum yesterday and Danny being town yesterday should be considered, that's all. This is a game with heavy emphasis on conversion, after all.
Rick Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 Li'l Corn and Li'l Rick, why do you both seem to think Danny was a recruiter? I'm very busy today and I feel I missed something regarding that. I was replying to li'l Scouty who seemed to suggest he's town because li'l Danny was scum. But, as we all seem to have acknowledged from the start of the day, Danny might have been killed by the scum killers. In that scenario he would of course be part of the recruiting team.
Zepher Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 Apologies for not seeing you'd already said that, but it's ok for you to say it, but not ok for me to make that point? I don't understand that. No, it's not. I'm saying hearing it from another person makes me realize how scummy it sounds, even coming from me. I just happen to know that I'm town, so I'm looking at you... even though you could too just be a townie saying something that sounds sort of scummy.
Hinckley Posted March 19, 2013 Posted March 19, 2013 I was replying to li'l Scouty who seemed to suggest he's town because li'l Danny was scum. But, as we all seem to have acknowledged from the start of the day, Danny might have been killed by the scum killers. In that scenario he would of course be part of the recruiting team. I agree. I highly doubt Danny was a death miller. I don't see Mr. Def resorting to such strange things in what's supposed to be a relatively transparent game concept-wise. I'm not claiming any kind of special knowledge. It just stands to reason that if he were killed by scum, the killing team wouldn't have offed one of their own. Yes, yes. I see all of that now. I went back and read all of the words. Hey, Peanuts, look! I successfully italicized something without using the button!
Recommended Posts