Eurobricks Mafia II: Mafia School: Day Five

[Hinckley]

I believe very strongly you are either a mason, or a scumbo. The defense for Chromeknight I gave (which was, by the way, correct) would have been useful if you were a mason, but not at all harming anything if you were scum. So it was a gamble, yes.

You have a group of people who you seem to coordinate with. So you're in a group. Either masons, or scum. You've led us to 0 correct lynches. It seems more likely that you are scum.

The correct defense is a nice place to sit. How many lynches have I "led"? And while you were right about Chromeknight, what would you have done with the information I had vs the information you had. He told Li'l Pal he was Scum. Were we supposed to ignore that? Your info seems like a convenient lie when you have a Scum confession in the other hand.

Not that you told a convenient lie. I mean that's what I though CK had done considering what else I knew.

[Rick]

Or, listen to their lies (again) and lynch me. Then lose tomorrow. You can clearly see how well we have been doing under their subtle leadership......

You're not taking yourself very seriously if you believe I have been "subtly" leading you. I honestly don't see how. You have even been "leading" the lynch on li'l Pala. Should we go after you because of that? All lynches so far have mainly been based on public information and behavioural analysis, out of fear of sharing night action results or other information obtained in private that would potentially allow the scum teams to connect. We've all made our own decisions based on the information presented.

CMP,I rather hope you don't proceed on a lynch of me. I feel Nightshroud/Peanuts of being greater targets. Nightshroud for the audacity of his accusations today, and his suspicions of Cecile, when that night she got murdered.

I thought you were "leaning towards town" on Peanuts yesterday. And how does being suspicious of someone the night before they die make someone look suspicious in your eyes? You've been asked a couple of things yesterday evening, which you never addressed, and now you seem to be bringing up the same unsubstantiated suspicions again.

Now, I'm still not suggesting that we reveal anything... but the scum would NEED to have had a successful conversion EVERY night to be ONE MORE player than the town right now. (4 scum at the beginning-1=3 scum+4 potential conversions=7 max total of scum). That seems unlikely.

I agree a successful scum conversion every night seems unlikely, but the scum started with five, so chances are actually worse.

[TheBoyWonder]

Yes I am leaning towards town more on Peanuts, I flung his name in to gauge his reactions. He's stopped spouting nonsense, so I'm leaning towards town, although we can't be sure, this game setup means trust is hard.

It's not suspicious just of that. It was mainly over his allegations today.

[Peanuts]

Here's a possibility. I think the two scum blocks have already found each other, and are purposely making sure that we don't bring anything out into the public. Quite frankly, we need a kill. People keep scaring us into not doing anything with the results we're getting, but we really need a kill. Now, I'm still not suggesting that we reveal anything... but the scum would NEED to have had a successful conversion EVERY night to be ONE MORE player than the town right now. (4 scum at the beginning-1=3 scum+4 potential conversions=7 max total of scum). That seems unlikely.

Your math is a bit off; the truth is, we're something between 8 vs. 4 and 4 vs. 8 (though the latter is highly unlikely).

My two main suspects are Li'l BoyWonder - I think why should be obvious, he doesn't answer the questions he's asked, he doesn't contribute (at least not in a way I can see, maybe he's more active behind the scenes) - and Li'l Walter, and just by my gut feeling, I'd say Walter is the better target to go on. But either way, I don't want to make a mistake right now, so I wonder what the "solid" lynch Li'l Hinck has promised is going to be. I doubt we'll get any more info on that, as that might net the scum more than us, but I'm curious.

[Walter Kovacs]

Your math is a bit off; the truth is, we're something between 8 vs. 4 and 4 vs. 8 (though the latter is highly unlikely).

My two main suspects are Li'l BoyWonder - I think why should be obvious, he doesn't answer the questions he's asked, he doesn't contribute (at least not in a way I can see, maybe he's more active behind the scenes) - and Li'l Walter, and just by my gut feeling, I'd say Walter is the better target to go on. But either way, I don't want to make a mistake right now, so I wonder what the "solid" lynch Li'l Hinck has promised is going to be. I doubt we'll get any more info on that, as that might net the scum more than us, but I'm curious.

So LBW has obvious points against him, and yet I'd make the better lynch target based on a "gut feeling"? C'mon Peanuts, you have to have something better than that.

Or perhaps you are part of the informed minority, and you know LBW and I are safe choices, hmmm?

[def]

Voting started 15 minutes ago! Hurry up! Start voting!

[Peanuts]

So LBW has obvious points against him, and yet I'd make the better lynch target based on a "gut feeling"? C'mon Peanuts, you have to have something better than that.

Or perhaps you are part of the informed minority, and you know LBW and I are safe choices, hmmm?

We don't even know if there is an informed minority yet...

Anyway, you've gone the perfect middle way, neither sticked your head out too far nor been as inactive and blatantly unhelpful as Li'l BoyWonder or the late Li'l Chromeknight. That's typically a sign of good scum players.

Also, I really don't like the defeatist sound of your opening post today.

[TheBoyWonder]

I hate to say it, but you haven't been amazingly helpful either, Lil'Peanuts.

[Walter Kovacs]

Anyway, you've gone the perfect middle way, neither sticked your head out too far nor been as inactive and blatantly unhelpful as Li'l BoyWonder or the late Li'l Chromeknight. That's typically a sign of good scum players.

Trust me, If I had any inkling of who was scum, I'd stick my head out a little further. A lot further, in fact. I ain't got a megablocking clue, and I haven't all game long.

Also, I really don't like the defeatist sound of your opening post today.

The defeatist tone is merely my frustrations showing. We've done a poor job of finding scum so far, and with the caliber players that are left, it's going to take better arguments than we have seen on previous days to get convictions. Which is likely to allow the scum teams to unite.

[Piratedave84]

Ahem!

I think the teams have united and are willingly not publicizing that info so they can keep killing!

CK was IMO the best choice for a lynch based on the info passed along bu Paly before his death.

[Endgame]

I'm not placing my vote until Hinckley confirms or denies that info.

[Hinckley]

I'm not placing my vote until Hinckley confirms or denies that info.

What specific info are you waiting for confirmation on?

[Endgame]

Wait, isn't this Ameribricks Mafia II now? Someone really needs to fix that...

"Confirm or deny" was not the right phrase, at all : I was referring to the fact you said you needed to confirm some things before making a revelation. I was referring to that - I'm assuming that you were going to atleast make some info public, and I'm waiting for it before I cast my vote.

[CMP]

Vote: Li'l Hinckley.

And now you're probably wondering why.

The most damning point is that he was tracked last night, and targeted Pandora.

He later claimed watcher and put forward that Walter Kovacs targeted her. He's scum, for an entirely different reason.

On Night Three, the masons (of which I am part of) tried and failed to convert him. Obviously there runs the risk of the recruitment blocker striking him that night. This is unlikely. He made earlier claims to a 'town' block (consisting of PirateDave and Hinckley) of being the blocker, which were never verified. My own suspicion is that he was converted by the scum earlier on and lost his ability. Funnily enough, he dropped out of the town block PM shortly after we failed to convert him. Hinckley, who I've been in contact with later in the game, simply never mentioned the claim, and today maintains that he is Pandora's killer.

Now, why would Hinckley do this? If Hinckley is indeed the scum killer, and Walter was indeed converted, wouldn't they have found eachother pretty easily if they were in this block PM and in constant contact? The answer is yes. Hinckley is using Walter (willingly - they're both scum) as a scapegoat. He is trying to gain the trust of the town, so that he may kill without interference for the rest of the game. Leading the only successful lynch of a scum, who would doubt him?

Onto TheBoyWonder, since Hinckley got on his case yesterday as well.

On Night Three, TheBoyWonder was tracked, targeting me. How does that fit into anything? Well, when confronted, he made a ridiculous claim of Bodyguard (50/50 chance of protecting a target) in private. There wasn't a bodyguard last time, only a normal protector. And last game there were three kills because of a serial killer. Why would def remove a kill, but add in an extra protector? It's a poor claim. Our suspicion is that TheBoyWonder is the converter as a result. Now, this information got leaked to Hinckley shortly afterward. I think it was at this point the scum merged, with the unwitting help of the masons. In any case, I believe that Hinckley was able to convince him, after merging, to convert Walter Kovacs.

Hinckley and I have been in contact for quite some time, and offered to act as the mouthpiece for the masons (which he correctly suspected I was part of) in our suspicions of Chromeknight, Walter Kovacs, and TheBoyWonder. He hasn't gone back on the promise. And today, we see why. They don't have the advantage of numbers yet. They're still working on that, and they are coming dangerously close. Hinckley has chosen to take a longer-term approach to the situation. Rather than letting us run wild, with the distinct possibility we might start to pick up, he has convinced his team to act as scapegoats. He has asked them to die to gain credibility. If I hadn't brought up this up, who among you would've gone with his lynch of TheBoyWonder or Walter Kovacs? If we didn't know he had killed Pandora, we certainly would have. Instead, we have been given a golden opportunity. We've found the mastermind that has caused the death of countless (because I won't bother counting them right now) townies and turned the town upside down on its head. This could very well be our last chance to seize. This could be our last day alive. We must act on this.

The mayor has spoken!

[Hinckley]

You and Dave, with your big mouths, are the reason the Town is going to lose this...

I'm not sure where all of your little assumptions came from, but you're wrong about me and now you've exposed yourselves and more than enough info for the Scum teams to connect.

[CMP]

I knew the risk. I knew how badly this could've screwed all of us. Then I looked at what the case I'd just written and said 'That's exactly like Hinckley!' You could've sat back and watched us run around like chickens with our heads cut off. But I know well enough you wouldn't've been content doing that.

[Hinckley]

I knew the risk. I knew how badly this could've screwed all of us. Then I looked at what the case I'd just written and said 'That's exactly like Hinckley!' You could've sat back and watched us run around like chickens with our heads cut off. But I know well enough you wouldn't've been content doing that.

What are you talking about? Did you even think about what you could potentially be doing? What if the Scum haven't united but do outnumber us? Now you've revealed the info we have on TBW and Walter and have given them enough confidence to connect. For whatever reason, you guys have jumped to the conclusion that they've already connected, so you think it's safe to reveal all of this, yet think of what you've done if they haven't connected.

[CMP]

You have no idea how hopeless the situation looks for us. At the beginning of the day I wanted to let you go along with your plan, knowing you were scum, because I was sure that both TBW and WK were scum anyway. But scum Hinckley with the town's trust is just too horrifying a thought. I'm willing to risk the entire game on this case.

This is an all or nothing situation. Either we're completely screwed or we're taking out the mastermind. If we let you go through with your plan we would've been screwed anyway.

[Endgame]

Vote: Li'l Hinckley (Hinckley)

There isn't much else to do at this juncture - CallMePie, you may have either damned us or saved our sorry butts. Let us hope it is the latter.

[TheBoyWonder]

Quick note, just to try and work out some more of that utter megablocks, have we even found a protecter, besides myself yet?

[Hinckley]

You have no idea how hopeless the situation looks for us. At the beginning of the day I wanted to let you go along with your plan, knowing you were scum, because I was sure that both TBW and WK were scum anyway. But scum Hinckley with the town's trust is just too horrifying a thought. I'm willing to risk the entire game on this case.

This is an all or nothing situation. Either we're completely screwed or we're taking out the mastermind. If we let you go through with your plan we would've been screwed anyway.

What plan?? I've been waiting on you two to make up your minds about who was the strongest target. You had the Night Action results. I told you I didn't even want to know the specifics in case I was converted. Thanks for thinking I'm the mastermind, but I can't imagine what ridiculous conversation you two had to come up with this.

Quick note, just to try and work out some more of that utter megablocks, have we even found a protecter, besides myself yet?

Yes.

[Walter Kovacs]

You've got one fact wrong, Li'l CMP. I have not been converted. Yes, I've been conversing with Hinckley nearly this entire game. But I am not scum. I sent this to someone else I've been conversing with, someone I now think might be on your team. Here's what I sent him this morning.

Sorry, I'm a bit late compiling this. Kids and Easter, not a pretty sight.

Let's look at the evidence against Hinckley.

We shouldn't let anyone know she was the vig so the Scum still think we have one. For as long as that works. And we should stop using this thread...

Goodbye, Cecilie!

Hinckley found out Cecilie was the Vig on Day 3, she was killed Night 3.

You've been certain of me having a town power role since day 1, and I'm still alive and have not been blocked, and you haven't given off any scummy vibes, so I'm pretty sure I can trust you at this point. Your story adds up too, so I have no problem believing you're a blocker. I have actually been in contact with Corny since night 1, when he came to me and told me he was the protector, and that he was protecting me. He then proceeded to tell me he was blocked, so that adds up with your story of blocking him.

Yes, I am the vig. You guessed correctly. And congratulations, you are now the second person to know, the first person being poor Corny. I admit, I screwed up by killing Foog . But he was acting all scummy and shit! Corny agreed with me about killing him too. I spent a lot of time going through his posts and trying to look for clues about him before finally deciding to kill him only a couple of hours before the deadline. I'm not sure I'll go out and kill again unless I have a serious clue to act on.

And with Corny dead, we now don't have a protector . So that sucks.

I'm glad you chose to trust me, because I wasn't sure what to do, I can't be a vig on my own, and I can't just go around telling anyone I'm the vig... And I keep dropping stupid little hints in thread about my role . I have got to get more careful...

All those three you mention have given off scummy vibes, so I'm all for going after any one of them. Which one do you think has the most going against them? I'm afraid they're just not very good players though, and that's the reason for them appearing scummy ...

Did Cecilie let Hinck know Corny was the protector? I know they were talking together before the three of us started our conversation. Corny was killed on Night 2.

I've received a message that I've been blocked on Nights 2 & 4, and Day 2 was when I claimed to Hinck.

Then there was this gem.

Double Post:

I'm leaning towards Zepher, but I still think they'd all make good block targets.

Thanks to the discussion on Day 1, which we can't talk about in thread, BTW, everyone and their brother assumed that Zepher was Vanilla town. So Why would Hinck try and direct me onto him, when even if he was converted, he would LOSE a night action, and never gain one? Zepher is the last person anyone would need to block. Though he could easily be scum.

It's certainly not conclusive, but it's a fair sight better than anything else we've had this game. Unfortunately, the Zepher post sort of looks obvious, like he wants me to use it as evidence so that the scum teams can unite and end the game. And I don't know if I've got enough to force the issue without it.

Also, as you may well know, I am the Town Blocker. Here is who I have Blocked (or attempted to block) each night. Hinckley is likely on the same team as the Scum Roleblocker, as I was blocked on Nights 2 and 4, which coincides with the day I role-claimed to him.

Certainly:

Night 1 - Cornelius Murdock

Night 2 - Palathadric (received message that I was blocked)

Night 3 - Peanuts

Night 4 - KieldaMan (received message that I was blocked)

Peanuts would be able to verify he was blocked Night 3, unless he is scum. In which case he will lie through his teeth.

Before her untimely death, I was also talking to Li'l Pandy. Here is the entirety of our conversation:

I've been thinking about how poorly this Town has done finding scum. I'm starting to think Hinckley might be scum. And that would make Dave scum as well, and possibly Rick and CMP. I know Hinck has talked to each of those players.

IF Chromenight flips town tomorrow morning, my suspicions will get closer to being confirmed. Unfortunately, I'll never get to 100%, on anyone.

The Vig did not attempt to kill on Nights 1 and 3, citing fear of hitting a Townie. The Vig took out Foog on Night 2, which seemed like a good idea to everyone except Foog at the time.

The Town Blocker blocked Corny Night 1, attempted to block Pally, but was blocked by the Scum Blocker and blocked Peanuts Night 3.

The "Town" Tracker targeted CMP Night 1, Foog Night 2 and I believe Chrome Night 3. I never heard back from Dave (who claimed tracker) on any results. We had a bit of a falling out, and he needs some time to cool off. CMP and Foog both came up empty. Tracker would make a nice fake claim for Scum Blocker, don't you think?

If Cecilie can be believed, and I think she was trustworthy, Corny was the Town Doctor.

Cecilie claimed Vig to myself and Hinckley. After she died, Hinck wanted to keep that fact a secret. I'll post the PM if you want "proof", though that can be faked of course.

Hinckley being scum would explain why he posted suspicions against me out of the blue, while continuing to talk to me in PMs, asking my opinions on lynches and possible block targets.

I hope this info helps you. You can take it at face value or dismiss it as trash, depending on your trust level in me. I, of course, will swear that it's gospel, and I think you'd expect that.

I'm not entirely sure why you're contacting me with all this information; the obvious answer is that you 'trust' me, but I don't quite see why. I appreciate the trust nonetheless.

I have been suspicious of Hinck on and off this entire game and it's just swung back round to on again. I can see why you think that would implicate CMP and Dave as scum too, but I don't follow your reasoning on Rick. Unusually Rick and I haven't spoke privately at all this game, not even when I poked him today, but aside from his behaviour in the thread I don't have much to base my suspicion on (and I am suspicious of him).

I think Cecilie can safely be assumed trustworthy given that she's been proven townie in the most ultimate way, so thus it would be fair to assume she was correct in stating to you that Corny was the protector.

Do you know why the blocker and (Dave) the 'tracker' picked the targets they did?

No, I do not know the reasons behind their targets.

As for why I felt I could trust you, everyone else seems pretty scummy. And I've already talked to Rick about most of this, hence the reason I knew he and Hinck had talked. Just trying to find a safe port in a storm, so to speak. If Dave truly is the Scum blocker, then he's probably lying about his targets anyway.

I just wanted to give my suspicions to someone else, in case I don't make it through the night.

Just to add fuel to the fire, here's a theoretical timeline:

Cecilie and Hinck start talking Day 1. On Day 2, Ceci lets slip that Corny is the Doctor. Corny is killed that night. I let Hinck know I know the Blocker. The scum get a lucky guess based on my personality? That doesn't fit so well. *shrug*

Day 3 Cecilie confirms her role to Hinck. Night 3 she is killed. Hinck and Dave suggest Peanuts to the Blocker, and nothing good happens. As far as anyone can tell. Dave was pushing hard for Chrome as a Vig target during Night 3, but Ceci decided to play it safe.

Hinck and Dave are suggesting The Boy Wonder as a block tonight. It almost feels like Bloodbrick I, and I should suggest Hinck's name to the Blocker instead of TBW. (for reference, I was the Blocker in Bloodbrick I, and I blocked Hinck's trusted confidant, Draggy (who WAS Scum) on Night 4. I got lynched for it, and the scum won. )

This game is frustrating. I have some solid information and still nothing concrete comes out of it. At least the separated scum teams are having the same issues. If we Townies can't find the scum, surely the scum can't find the other scum. Right?

I'm not convinced Dave is scum. I think he's easily influenced by Hinck, but I could very well be wrong. I'm still not clear why you added Rick to the list of potential scum, but if you think he is scum then perhaps he might be worthy of being blocked?

The timeline you posted, were you aware of these events at the same time Hinck was? Was Rick?

Rick is really a stretch. He has seemed very Townie, but he's a good enough player to pull that off and still be scum. I just know that he and Hinck have been talking the entire game. That is the only connection, really. When I talk to Rick, he gets very technical, explaining what might be happening on a theoretical level, but never showing what his thoughts on the matter are. It's almost pedantic, in a way, like he feels he needs to teach me what the clues mean. But he has yet to express his opinion in private.

As for the timeline, I know Hinck and Cecilie were talking prior to the end of Day 2. Cecilie and I started talking on Day 2, and I never felt the need to question grill her on who she had been talking to previous to that. It's hard enough just to get someone to trust you. After mid-Day 2, I was in on every conversation, except for those that Dave-Hinck and Ceci-Hink had without me. If that makes sense. Dave and Ceci never talked directly, and I don't think Dave knows Ceci was the Vig unless he and Hinck are scum buddies.

Then there is potentially incriminating information against Hinck there. I guess now it will depend on whether Chrome is actually scum or not?

Yes. I should know a lot more by tomorrow morning. Well, start of Day 5.

Just a quick question, sorry, but whose idea was it for Cecilie to become Mayor, and how did that all come about?

Oh, and was Rick aware of the same information Hinck was, at the same time he was?

Sorry, two quick questions, then.

I'm on my phone, I'll answer your questions when I get home.

Hinck is really confusing me. He says he and Dave want to "test" TBW tonight, and then suggests Zepher as a potential block target. Zepher was clearly vanilla town Day 1, and if he was converted would have no PR.

I agree that Zepher seems a silly target by your reasoning. I don't understand how TBW can be tested, but I guess there must be some way? Is there someone you'd rather have blocked? You said you were considering Hinck as a suggestion for blocking, but then if there's "testing" of TBW occurring and he's involved somehow, maybe having Pie or Rick blocked would be more helpful (as they're also assumed scum by association with Hinck, as you've mentioned)?

I really don't know as I'd have thought TBW would be a good choice, and frankly TBW looks very scummy from today's thread, but it sounds like it might mess up their plan, and your current theory on them being scum rests on CK being town, which you won't know until day 5.

I am not sure who concocted the plan to have Cecilie voted mayor. It was never discussed in private, at least not in PMs that I was involved in.

Rick was not aware of the same information at the same time as Hinck. I didn't start talking to him until after Mayoral voting was done on Day 3.

Hope this answers your questions. If any others crop up, let me know.

Thanks Walter. It just worries me that having the vig being put up as Mayor was an invitation to be killed by the scum, and was risky for such a power role. I know a lot of people didn't think the mayor was such a big deal, but it was in EB Mafia 1 (as I believe you stated in the thread), and that view seems to have been borne out so far.

I've been wrestling with when and how to attack Hinckley all day. But now that everything is out on the table.

Vote: Li'l Hinckley (Hinckley)

If the Scum teams unite and win because of this, at least the town can have a moral victory.

[TheBoyWonder]

Hmm. Well let's just say. You've got my role really wrong. If someone targeted you for a kill, and I protected you, I'd die. Its not 50 /50. The way I see it, PirateDave hasn't exactly been the most trustworthy townie. How do you know he is right? I imagine you got your results from him. What if he's the mastermind?

[Piratedave84]

Sorry Hinck!

What is that thing you kept saying to me in EB I? Oh yes Occam's Razor!

vote lil' Hinck (Hinckley)

[CMP]

Hmm. Well let's just say. You've got my role really wrong. If someone targeted you for a kill, and I protected you, I'd die. Its not 50 /50. The way I see it, PirateDave hasn't exactly been the most trustworthy townie. How do you know he is right? I imagine you got your results from him. What if he's the mastermind?

He's a mason.