Waterbrick Down Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 Well this is certainly refreshing news after spending a few hours going through yesterdays and today's statements. If it turns out to be true, then we'll definitely be able to connect some of the pieces of this giant puzzle. For the record, I didn't receive any message from Laurence and looking at the numbers for 1/3 of us to receive the message (~1/2 if I don't include her suspects or myself) it's pretty likely that a scum was included in the mailing list. As other's have stated it looks like her anxiousness was probably caused by having a night action, which is disheartening considering that it sounded like Brittney might have as well, given her final pleas. Juliet, have I ever told you how your love for animals has awakened an animalistic love for you inside of me?
Fred Daniel Yam Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 Got a little song for you all, I hope you enjoy it. I think you will find it fascinating. " A little birdie in the sky told me something, 'most made me cry Paris is not who we think A Monster that really stinks. Luckily for the town We have a cop that hasn't let us down." For those of you that can't read between the lines, it appears that the Town Cop has investigated Paris last night and she came up "Monster". Luckily for the town, they have trusted wisely. Truly a fascinating song. At least now we have something to go on rather than running around like headless chickens
Mencot Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 Benvolio is back, sober but still naked but the ladies love it, right Well.... quick comments here and then I'll be back later with more (for reals, not like that Benvolio dude). I also got a message from Lawrence with the same list of suspects. I suspect that he might have been a metagame kill - in other fights with the scum he's been a solid player, so that's the only reason I see to take him out first like this. And Rocky, the "no lynch" idea was originally mine, not Britt's. I like how you keep calling me out fanciullesco, but here I am. Not saying you are scum, you have an 55/45 read on you towards scum but from my experience people who call others out all the time for no reason, turn out scum in the end. But we will see. I wonder how many messages Lawrence gave out? The metagame kill may account for him knowing ahead of time with enough time to send messages--but I don't see the reason he'd be mod killed in the first place? I don't think he did anything D1 that caused him to be killed in such a way. On the Benviolio subject, I think he stated in the conformation thread that his drunkeness causes him to wander off and not be active (Or something like that)--though that doesn't make him 100% town or anything. Frainkly I'm suspicous of anyone who doesn't say a word or does not vote. There were a couple of people who said almost nothing yesterday, which doesn't help the town--so they better speak up! And finally, . I must have mistaken your words for Brittany--at least on the subject of the no lynch. I suppose my vote should have gone to you then. Regardless, Brittany's actualy flip flop actions and excuses did get myself and others to vote for her. Note to self, layoff the beer and learn to read better. *falsetto* You know, since he was contacting everyone, that could be one of the reasons Laurence was killed. Did everyone receive the same suspicions from him? Maybe one (or both) of Carlisa or Abraham is scum, and he made the mistake of contacting one of their teammates? I mean, think about it this way. You're a scummo, cruising right along, when suddenly along comes a message from Laurence. He strongly suspects one or two of your teammates, for no reason. Scared that people might listen to such a strong player, you talk to your team. As far as you know, you're the only one he talked to about those suspicions - you can still stop him from spreading them. You kill him, thinking you're keeping suspicion off of Abraham or Carlisa, but allowing it to remain on Paris. I got no message from Lawrence, so I don´t know anything about his messages. But I guess he had his reasons to call Paris, Abraham and Carlisa because he was killed (and knew) and turned out town. Actually, the more I look at it, it really is likely that he accidentally contacted scum... This is why you reveal your suspicions in the thread, not via PM... Very true but some PM should be made between persons (I remember a miner in a silver town that didn´t PM anyone but tried just to get trust in day thread, in the end he was lynched by scum, he didn´t get saved by the other townies because they wasn´t 100 % sure about him that they would had saved him) But yes fanciullesco, one should not reveal suspicions if there isn´t enough trust. For my money, I'd nominate me too. It's too bad I'm not scum; we'd both be losing our money. I realize my word holds no weight on this topic, but if I were scum, I wouldn't kill someone who accused me so outright. It would put me in the spotlight the next day (as we're seeing here), and that's the last thing scum wants. Plus, I answered Laurence's accusation well - much better than any scum could have. There would be no reason for me to kill him. It's actually possible that they killed Laurence to partly cast suspicion on me. With all the uneasiness about me yesterday (Laurence's and Romeo's accusations, and even Rosie making clear that she didn't trust me), it'd be easy for scum to stir up enough suspicion about me to get me lynched today. However, I feel like scum might have killed Romeo instead, as he was the more vocal one. Still, his accusations were obviously ridiculous - maybe scum is really thinking two steps ahead here. Either way, I get the distinct feeling that scum is really trying to mess with me this game... The line in bold is weirding me out. If you're town, why are you worried about looking "ultra-scummy"?? I do agree that lynching a lurker on the first day is dumb. The ones that keep lurking, however... Those are the ones you wanna nab. What?? Is this an outright scum claim, or is it roleplaying?? If you'd read, you'd see that he suspected me, Abraham, and Carlisa. If there was a serial killer, this would be true. However, since there's not, not really. I think it's pretty obvious that the only kill we've seen so far has been the scum kill... unless the vigilante is a mafia goon... I doubt that. It's not at all uncommon for the vig to not kill on the first night. It's better than taking a shot in the dark and killing town. It's not that I was concerned with looking scummy, IT IS SCUMMY!! If I change my vote to match up with you guys, I am a bandwagoner. If I stay with my vote with Melanie, I'm going against the grain and staying middle of the road. You can't have it both ways. You're barking up the wrong tree here, believe me. Calling out my vote just because it is different than yours is stupid. I explained my vote, there is nothing more to it. Besides, you're the one that voted out a Townie, why aren't we questioning you, Paris? Not defending Alicia but it would look scummy to change in that point. And everybody is allowed to vote for anyone, more scum will be found in the Britt bandvagon then in the other voting patterns *falsetto* What time did the rest of you guys get the messages? Vote for whoever you want to, not for who would make you look less scummy. While I don't 100% agree with you on the Melanie vote, I definitely see where you were coming from (her defense of Britt did not look good - if it weren't for her towntells, I'd be willing to suspect her as well). But now it's coming out that you only didn't switch to Brittney because you didn't want to become a "scummy bandwagoner"?? You're literally explaining the psychology of why scum don't switch. Are you scum??? I remember you not passing any judgement on her yesterday either. You wrote a song about how she was "flailing", but didn't actually say anything as to whether it was town flailing or scum flailing... Nah, I wasn't even close to convinced that you were scum when I called you out (I've learned through the years to not ignore my gut, no matter what anyone else says ), but your reactions and justifications have me thinking this might not be a bad tree at all. It wasn't just on your vote, although I realize if it may have looked that way. I actually thought you were one of the ones who had said "Nah, Britt's town, losers. I'm voting for Melanie!", but after rereading just now, I see that you didn't actually make any judgement on Brittney, and your vote against Melanie was based entirely on her defense. There's been something off about you this whole time, though. Almost like there was in a Mafia game where you played a marching band pizza delivering loverboy ( ). That's actually a lot of the reason why I accused you. Yes, me and the other eleven people who voted for Brittney are all scum. Expert analysis Fight girls, fight Ugh, whatever. I'm not making the same mistake I made in Yakuza. I have a role, and I've made it clear, and I'm being lynched, so I need to claim it before it's too late. I'm the tracker. I tried to track LegoDad last night, but was blocked. Scum blocked and framed me in the same night. I realize this isn't going to change anything, and I'm still going to die. Nobody cares about trackers. Just thought you should know. So now you say that you are the tracker, didn´t you say that you weren´t anything when someone called out you for being the Godfather, so now you say you are a PR!? I am gonna come out Amicos, Paris and Melanie are my top suspects, altought they are both people that are 55/45 towards scum
Mencot Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 I am so lonely, why doesn´t anyone wanna talk to me Truly a fascinating song. At least now we have something to go on rather than running around like headless chickens intresting if this is true, and I lean towards this being true rather than Paris claim being the tracker Remember back in the days when I was young, me and my brother Pablo, who died in the war, rest his soul. We were successful businessmen, we had it all. Then suddenly everything changed when Pablo died or did it...Benvolio jumps up on a table and screams Die you yankee porcos, haha Ratatatatatatatata dire ciao al mio piccolo amico ,io sono Pablo il Terribile hahahaha Then the old man falls down from the table
Fred Daniel Yam Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 I am so lonely, why doesn´t anyone wanna talk to me intresting if this is true, and I lean towards this being true rather than Paris claim being the tracker Remember back in the days when I was young, me and my brother Pablo, who died in the war, rest his soul. We were successful businessmen, we had it all. Then suddenly everything changed when Pablo died or did it...Benvolio jumps up on a table and screams Die you yankee porcos, haha Ratatatatatatatata dire ciao al mio piccolo amico ,io sono Pablo il Terribile hahahaha Then the old man falls down from the table Say what?
Endgame Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 Well, Paris just shot up to number one on my suspicions list, and is getting my vote today. In retrospect, this was all predicted by a fortune cookie 6 months ago... Or was it 7? Reading through the thread, many of Paris's defenses were just trying to shove the spotlight off of her then to contribute anything to the actual discussion - it seemed she didn't care where the attention was, as long as it wasn't on her. Everything else was practically flailing - Framing, I would guess, is highly unlikely in this case. it doesn't seem to be too common of a rule, this is simply a basic mafia game. Trying to blind us with a false claim, dahling?
PsyKater Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 Yay, these are some great news here. I really suggest on testing that (result) claim. I think a framer is pretty unlikely in this game. However, we only find out if we try. But let me try to react on some statements at first. What?? Is this an outright scum claim, or is it roleplaying?? Care to elaborate on what the comment about your about outfit is about? "If you'd read, you'd see that" it was just a direct reply to the sentence before: Silent lurkers........ You're not helping Join in with Fluffy and start to yelping Silent lurkers.......... come out from the darkness And help out the town whose aid from you harkens. I have the most beautiful sweater in this council and nobody would notice if I stay so silence. I also like my turquoise trousers a lot. *ha*ha* If you'd read, you'd see that he suspected me, Abraham, and Carlisa. I asked for the reasoning, no need to be rude. Lawrence didn't include an reasoning behind his three name list, so that makes it impossible to see his reason to point them out. Thanks for this answer then. Interesting though, that he shared his reasoning with someone else. If there was a serial killer, this would be true. However, since there's not, not really. I think it's pretty obvious that the only kill we've seen so far has been the scum kill... unless the vigilante is a mafia goon... I doubt that. It's not at all uncommon for the vig to not kill on the first night. It's better than taking a shot in the dark and killing town. I didn't jump on this conclusion. For me it was just another AETNR. Why is it so obvious for you? Ah, yes. Because you know it was a Mafia Kill. Why are you assuming that the vig was blocked? Assuming we have a vig, there's lots of scenarios that result in no vig kill: chose not to kill (most likely); was blocked; tried to kill someone who was protected; or also targeted Laurence (least likely?). Day 2 has barely started and it looks like you're fishing for information about night actions already. See above, I didn't connect the killer with the Scum from the images, I just saw a dark person. Reading the text and looking at the pictures again (on a bigger screen...) I can understand why most people think it is most likely a scum kill. So I was not assuming that the Vig was killed and I was not fishing for the results of the blocker. But some PR have to be reminded of the importance of her roles as they sometimes are too paranoid to share their results (I read about this in a book before). Also, I think her spirit actually being the Grandma's Visitor might hint at her night action if she had one (which it looks like she might have). Also, I get the link between night action and "visitor", but I think there is a big leap of faith to saying "it looks like she might have". Did I miss the obvious? I have to stand by the bumblebee here. I don't have a clue why you are assuming that he had a PR?! Do you really think there is a visitor in this game? And do you really think it could be something else? I wasn't contacted by Lawrence. Now I feel left out. I know how you feel... I'd wager it was a vig kill if I didn't know any better. What do you mean here? Do you know it was a Scum kill or are you just assuming it from the text and the pictures? Now onto the news we heard. I'm the tracker. I tried to track LegoDad last night, but was blocked. Scum blocked and framed me in the same night. I realize this isn't going to change anything, and I'm still going to die. Nobody cares about trackers. Just thought you should know. Yeah for town! Convenient to claim but highly unlikely. This is what Trumpet asked us when we signed up: And we started with just 20 players. My bet is that we just have basic roles only - no framers, no paranoid cops, no insane cops. Claim all you want Paris, but I know where my vote will be going later today. I have to agree with the bee again. Scum blocked AND framed you as they thought the cop would target you as well? So they thought you would be the NA-pile of the night? sure.... As I said in the beginning: We have to prove the investigator claim. In my opinion, Paris is vocal but not really saying anything, just like someone else mentioned before. She still says much more than many other people (including me), but I think her townplay would be much more enthusiastic, much more substancial.
mostlytechnic Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 All you saying that either paris is scum or there's a framer are missing one obvious alternative - Alicia is scum and making the whole thing up. That'd be hugely gusty to gamble that a real role cop doesn't counterclaim, but it would be an easier explanation than thinking there's a framer who happened to target the same person that the real role cop did, and then the rolecop shared bad info with Alicia. I do seem to remember exactly that happening with alicia in a previous life, and we went down this same road - lynched the framed person, suspected Alicia's ancestor for a long time after the person turned out town, etc. So either an insane pile of coincidences has occurred, or Alicia is taking a historical event and trying to replicate it. Or one other option - the scum gambled that there's no role cop and had a fake one claim to Alicia to get a lie out there. In that case both Paris and Alicia could be town, and whoever claimed to Alicia is the scum. I sorta suspect this option actually - maybe some scum said something to Alicia in private, trying to stir up suspicions against a vocal townie (not that I'm assuming here that Paris is town, I certainly do NOT know her his whatever's allegiance, just tossing out my thoughts). In that case, they probably didn't expect Alicia to come out publicly with it. I'll just say, Alicia, before the end of the day you probably outta share that source's identity with someone, since if it was a lie and we lynch Paris, the scum would probably want to off you in the night to hide their identity. I'm NOT asking you to share now, but you shoudl share with SOMEONE before the end of the day incase you're not here tomorrow. Sadly, the only real way to know is the lynch,, so I highly suspect Paris will be gone today.
LegoDad Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 I am not the only person that knows who claimed this information, FWIW. I know the historical event you are talking about Melanie, I know about it all too well. There are some differences, though. This was Night 1, and no real suspicions had been thrown Paris's way, no reason to frame her in this case. In the case you are talking about from that mess of a school, the scum had a good idea of who was going to be investigated that night. They weren't 100% sure, but had a good idea and gambled, and won. With this being a "simple" game, I'm not even sure that a frame exists in this game, definitely not ruling it out, though. Frames are also usually a one-shot deal. The doubt the scum would use a frame the first night on someone that wasn't really even a target in the day thread.
CMP Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 What do you mean here? Do you know it was a Scum kill or are you just assuming it from the text and the pictures? I mean that if there's only one kill at night it's more likely a scum kill than a vig. Vigs rarely act the first night. But Lawrence was acting like she had not long ago in the past, when she was a scummier person, so I'm left conflicted about it.
Peanuts Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 All you saying that either paris is scum or there's a framer are missing one obvious alternative - Alicia is scum and making the whole thing up. That'd be hugely gusty to gamble that a real role cop doesn't counterclaim, but it would be an easier explanation than thinking there's a framer who happened to target the same person that the real role cop did, and then the rolecop shared bad info with Alicia. I do seem to remember exactly that happening with alicia in a previous life, and we went down this same road - lynched the framed person, suspected Alicia's ancestor for a long time after the person turned out town, etc. So either an insane pile of coincidences has occurred, or Alicia is taking a historical event and trying to replicate it. Or one other option - the scum gambled that there's no role cop and had a fake one claim to Alicia to get a lie out there. In that case both Paris and Alicia could be town, and whoever claimed to Alicia is the scum. I sorta suspect this option actually - maybe some scum said something to Alicia in private, trying to stir up suspicions against a vocal townie (not that I'm assuming here that Paris is town, I certainly do NOT know her his whatever's allegiance, just tossing out my thoughts). In that case, they probably didn't expect Alicia to come out publicly with it. I'll just say, Alicia, before the end of the day you probably outta share that source's identity with someone, since if it was a lie and we lynch Paris, the scum would probably want to off you in the night to hide their identity. I'm NOT asking you to share now, but you shoudl share with SOMEONE before the end of the day incase you're not here tomorrow. Sadly, the only real way to know is the lynch,, so I highly suspect Paris will be gone today. I doubt the scum would bank on the fact that there is no cop to counterclaim, at this point in the game they cannot possibly be sure there is none. I think it's either a frame, a miller (which would be a really weird coincidence) or a real result. A frame wouldn't be too far off, I remember a situation in an asylum where an extremely unexperienced investigator targeted the framee on night one and they were eventually lynched. The circumstances were slightly different, but Paris makes a good frame target. Still, we can't bank on that. We mustn't ignore an investigation result, and I have been suspicious of Paris before (as well as the late Lawrence). *to Henry* You agree, don't you? No, I'm sure Paris isn't being manipulated by her blow-dryer. Blow-dryers can't do that, that would be silly.*end of monologue*
mostlytechnic Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 I am not the only person that knows who claimed this information, FWIW. I know the historical event you are talking about Melanie, I know about it all too well. There are some differences, though. This was Night 1, and no real suspicions had been thrown Paris's way, no reason to frame her in this case. In the case you are talking about from that mess of a school, the scum had a good idea of who was going to be investigated that night. They weren't 100% sure, but had a good idea and gambled, and won. With this being a "simple" game, I'm not even sure that a frame exists in this game, definitely not ruling it out, though. Frames are also usually a one-shot deal. The doubt the scum would use a frame the first night on someone that wasn't really even a target in the day thread. First, glad to know you're not the only one with the info. That protects us all so we can make better decisions once this plays out. It also reduces (in my mind) the likelyhood that there's a scum giving you bad info, since the more widespread they make it, the higher the odds of someone disproving it. And I agree that a frame on night one getting lucky is unlikely. And the more I think about it, I'm less inclined to think it's a scum ploy, since a lying claim to you would not necessarily be very effective (not like you can lynch Paris alone, so it'd rely on you influencing everyone) AND it's hugely risky. I'm probably going to vote Paris today, since by occam's razor, she's probably scum. I mean that if there's only one kill at night it's more likely a scum kill than a vig. Vigs rarely act the first night. But Lawrence was acting like she had not long ago in the past, when she was a scummier person, so I'm left conflicted about it. I'd think the night kill was scum, not a vig, for the same reason. The odds of the scum getting blocked are low, and a vig taking night 1 off is common. We can't know for sure yet, but that's certainly the most likely explanation. I doubt we're vig-less (if we are, can we take vig-ra or something to help with that?) I'm very curious to see tonight if the dead have an inner identity revealed... since only one did last night I'm inclined to think it might mean something, but who knows...
Mencot Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 I am not the only person that knows who claimed this information, FWIW. Thats good and we should go on this, it is rarely (in the history I know about) we(town) get this kind of clue so in the beginning. Sulla the kill last night, the first thing I got from the images was that it was a scum kill not a vig but it is ofcourse hard to say just now. But I would put il mio lost business that it was a scum kill, because after all at my experience there is a scum kill every night, if it isn´t block/protected some how and after one night that would be extremly fortunato.
Tamamono Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 No, you're making the same mistake I made in the Pearl. I have a hard time believing you'd be so outright townie in public when you're a PR anyway. Hinck/def aren't playing. Someone has to step up to the plate. Plus, being super townie is good WIFOM - I thought scum wouldn't block me. Claim all you want Paris, but I know where my vote will be going later today. You can think whatever the megabluck you want. There's a framer, and it framed me. Unless LegoDad is scum and decided he was pissed off enough at me to fake an investigation on day megablocking two. Remember Aperture? That was a mafia school, and there was a framer. So basically, in short, megabluck off - I'm town. So now you say that you are the tracker, didn´t you say that you weren´t anything when someone called out you for being the Godfather, so now you say you are a PR!? Hahaahhahahah yeah, I should claim my role in the thread as soon as I'm accused. Ace strategy, sport. I wasn't sure if I was going to be lynched before - PRs should only publicly claim when they're being lynched. Well, Paris just shot up to number one on my suspicions list, and is getting my vote today. In retrospect, this was all predicted by a fortune cookie 6 months ago... Or was it 7? You can take your vote and shove it up your megablocks. I'm town. I bet you're scum too, just salivating thinking of being able to lynch me so early. Reading through the thread, many of Paris's defenses were just trying to shove the spotlight off of her then to contribute anything to the actual discussion - it seemed she didn't care where the attention was, as long as it wasn't on her. That was only with Romeo because he apparently thinks we're playing Romeo vs. Paris, Big Fight Night! instead of Mafia. Everything else was practically flailing - Framing, I would guess, is highly unlikely in this case. it doesn't seem to be too common of a rule, this is simply a basic mafia game. Trying to blind us with a false claim, dahling? Yeah, I was flailing, ace assessment, bud. Where was this assessment of my behavior before the phony results?? Hm?? Just going to jump on the Pariswagon now that there's support for it? I have to agree with the bee again. Scum blocked AND framed you as they thought the cop would target you as well? So they thought you would be the NA-pile of the night? sure.... Actually, judging by how literally nobody knows how to read me, it might have been town blocking me. I was just informed that I was blocked, not of who did it. I'm just assuming that it was scum, because I'd like to believe that people in town have at least a little common sense. As I said in the beginning: We have to prove the investigator claim. In my opinion, Paris is vocal but not really saying anything, just like someone else mentioned before. She still says much more than many other people (including me), but I think her townplay would be much more enthusiastic, much more substancial. Maybe you'd find that I actually said things if you'd read the goddamn thread for once in your life. I don't see how my play has been anything but enthusiastic and "substantial". I've been trying to lynch scum since my first post on the first day. There are few others who have contributed as much thought to this game as I have. All you saying that either paris is scum or there's a framer are missing one obvious alternative - Alicia is scum and making the whole thing up. That'd be hugely gusty to gamble that a real role cop doesn't counterclaim, but it would be an easier explanation than thinking there's a framer who happened to target the same person that the real role cop did, and then the rolecop shared bad info with Alicia. I do seem to remember exactly that happening with alicia in a previous life, and we went down this same road - lynched the framed person, suspected Alicia's ancestor for a long time after the person turned out town, etc. So either an insane pile of coincidences has occurred, or Alicia is taking a historical event and trying to replicate it. If she's scum, she's literally asking to be killed later on. I don't see how she could be sure that there would be no cop counterclaim, unless a cop was dumb enough to claim to her and she killed him. That's unlikely, though. I really think it's framing, although Alicia could still be scum, just going along with the investigator's wishes to get another townie lynched. Sadly, the only real way to know is the lynch,, so I highly suspect Paris will be gone today. Yeah, and you'll all be losing your tracker. God, I'm so megablocking mad. Literally Yakuza all over again. Frames are also usually a one-shot deal. The doubt the scum would use a frame the first night on someone that wasn't really even a target in the day thread. No, they are not. Frames were a one shot deal the first time you were scum, but that's because the framer was mixed in with a bunch of other shit. Framer is usually an every night role. And why wouldn't it target me? There was no obvious investigation target. I was as good as anyone. They obviously see me as a threat, but see enough support in-thread for my possible lynch to go for it by first killing Laurence and then framing me. And I agree that a frame on night one getting lucky is unlikely. And the more I think about it, I'm less inclined to think it's a scum ploy, since a lying claim to you would not necessarily be very effective (not like you can lynch Paris alone, so it'd rely on you influencing everyone) AND it's hugely risky. I'm probably going to vote Paris today, since by occam's razor, she's probably scum. I really wish you people could learn to trust behaviors over results. Results can be messed with and proven wrong. Behaviors can't. Come on, Melanie, you're smart enough to not fall for scum's trap here! :skeptic: I'm the poor misunderstood hero of the story, just like this guy: This... is my design.
TrumpetKing Posted July 30, 2013 Author Posted July 30, 2013 (edited) Voting is now open! With 18 players remaining, a majority of 10 is required to lynch. Edited July 30, 2013 by TrumpetKing
mostlytechnic Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 I really wish you people could learn to trust behaviors over results. Results can be messed with and proven wrong. Behaviors can't. Come on, Melanie, you're smart enough to not fall for scum's trap here! :skeptic: No, behaviors can TOTALLY be faked. That's the practically the entire JOB of the scum, to be fake town. So yep, investigations and stuff can be messed with. So they're not 100% reliable. But actions can be fake too - I've gotten burned more than once trusting someone based on their behavior. And behavior can be messed with to some extent too - start accusing people and you can make them react. Pressure is a good way to test out someone's behavior, but you can also get misled if they crack.
Tamamono Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 No, behaviors can TOTALLY be faked. That's the practically the entire JOB of the scum, to be fake town. So yep, investigations and stuff can be messed with. So they're not 100% reliable. But actions can be fake too - I've gotten burned more than once trusting someone based on their behavior. And behavior can be messed with to some extent too - start accusing people and you can make them react. Pressure is a good way to test out someone's behavior, but you can also get misled if they crack. That's because you weren't reading them correctly. Behaviors can't be flawed, but the way you read them can be. It's important to learn to fully read any behavior, even without pressure. Scum know they're scum, and will subconsciously scumtell. You just have to know what to look for. Have I scumtold, Melanie? Outside of being investigated as scum, which is a flawed method of discerning one's allegiance?
Kadabra Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 That's because you weren't reading them correctly. Behaviors can't be flawed, but the way you read them can be. It's important to learn to fully read any behavior, even without pressure. Scum know they're scum, and will subconsciously scumtell. You just have to know what to look for. Have I scumtold, Melanie? Outside of being investigated as scum, which is a flawed method of discerning one's allegiance? It may be flawed, but it's the best we have to go on for now. Vote: Paris Shawty (Tamamono) If you flip scum we have an investigator we can trust. If you flip town, we can lynch the investigator or think about framers.
Tamamono Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 It may be flawed, but it's the best we have to go on for now. Vote: Paris Shawty (Tamamono) If you're willing to ignore behaviors just for a flimsy investigator, you've already lost. In any case, I realize that it won't mean anything, but I should walk away and save myself my sanity now - there's no way I walk out of this alive. You've all doomed me to an early death by ignoring the most important part of mafia. Whatever. I'm voting for who I'm most sure is scum. Vote: Abraham (Fred Daniel Yam) If anyone would like to use their brains and play optimally, please join me in voting for him.
DarthPotato Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 Paris, the investigation results aren't the only reason why people suspect you. You've been receiving scrutiny for the past couple days and haven't been exactly considered as Townie as you think you are. I also find it unlikely you were targeted by a blocker, framer, and investigator all in the same night. It's all just a little too convenient. Vote: Paris Shawty (Tamamono)
Tamamono Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 Paris, the investigation results aren't the only reason why people suspect you. You've been receiving scrutiny for the past couple days and haven't been exactly considered as Townie as you think you are. I also find it unlikely you were targeted by a blocker, framer, and investigator all in the same night. It's all just a little too convenient. Vote: Paris Shawty (Tamamono) Why is it too convenient? You said it yourself, I'm not "exactly townie". Yet I also can't have been targeted by actions (which target people who aren't "townie"). Which is it?
DarthPotato Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 Why is it too convenient? You said it yourself, I'm not "exactly townie". Yet I also can't have been targeted by actions (which target people who aren't "townie"). Which is it? I still doubt it all happened last night. Especially how you're claiming tracker and don't have any results to show us because you were apparently blocked. I guess I can see where you're coming from, but we can get so much further by testing these results and going from there tomorrow.
Mencot Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 Hinck/def aren't playing. Someone has to step up to the plate. Plus, being super townie is good WIFOM - I thought scum wouldn't block me. You can think whatever the megabluck you want. There's a framer, and it framed me. Unless LegoDad is scum and decided he was pissed off enough at me to fake an investigation on day megablocking two. Remember Aperture? That was a mafia school, and there was a framer. So basically, in short, megabluck off - I'm town. Hahaahhahahah yeah, I should claim my role in the thread as soon as I'm accused. Ace strategy, sport. I wasn't sure if I was going to be lynched before - PRs should only publicly claim when they're being lynched. You can take your vote and shove it up your megablocks. I'm town. I bet you're scum too, just salivating thinking of being able to lynch me so early. That was only with Romeo because he apparently thinks we're playing Romeo vs. Paris, Big Fight Night! instead of Mafia. Yeah, I was flailing, ace assessment, bud. Where was this assessment of my behavior before the phony results?? Hm?? Just going to jump on the Pariswagon now that there's support for it? Actually, judging by how literally nobody knows how to read me, it might have been town blocking me. I was just informed that I was blocked, not of who did it. I'm just assuming that it was scum, because I'd like to believe that people in town have at least a little common sense. Maybe you'd find that I actually said things if you'd read the goddamn thread for once in your life. I don't see how my play has been anything but enthusiastic and "substantial". I've been trying to lynch scum since my first post on the first day. There are few others who have contributed as much thought to this game as I have. If she's scum, she's literally asking to be killed later on. I don't see how she could be sure that there would be no cop counterclaim, unless a cop was dumb enough to claim to her and she killed him. That's unlikely, though. I really think it's framing, although Alicia could still be scum, just going along with the investigator's wishes to get another townie lynched. Yeah, and you'll all be losing your tracker. God, I'm so megablocking mad. Literally Yakuza all over again. No, they are not. Frames were a one shot deal the first time you were scum, but that's because the framer was mixed in with a bunch of other shit. Framer is usually an every night role. And why wouldn't it target me? There was no obvious investigation target. I was as good as anyone. They obviously see me as a threat, but see enough support in-thread for my possible lynch to go for it by first killing Laurence and then framing me. I really wish you people could learn to trust behaviors over results. Results can be messed with and proven wrong. Behaviors can't. Come on, Melanie, you're smart enough to not fall for scum's trap here! :skeptic: I'm the poor misunderstood hero of the story, just like this guy: This... is my design. Judging from your answer bello/bella, someone is about to flip out Alica, Melanie, paris Someone is lying here but I am not ready to vote yet But that paris answers are full off fluff and she has no tracker evidence to prove her claim says a lot
Waterbrick Down Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 Considering that you've claimed to have an action, I agree with the lovely Juliet ... in that I think you would have played a little more carefully to make sure that the scum wouldn't kill you off for being really active and productive, or be potentially blocked by attracting too much attention. Hinck/def aren't playing. Someone has to step up to the plate. Plus, being super townie is good WIFOM - I thought scum wouldn't block me. Can you explain how that is a good WIFOM and it's relation to keeping a scum blocker off of you? You can think whatever the megabluck you want. There's a framer, and it framed me. Unless LegoDad is scum and decided he was pissed off enough at me to fake an investigation on day megablocking two. Remember Aperture? That was a mafia school, and there was a framer. So basically, in short, megabluck off - I'm town. I'll give you points for sticking to one explanation instead of flailing. I have a hard time believing Alecia is scum at this moment. If she wanted to get rid of you because of your activeness, it would have been as easy as killing you last night. If you flip town, then she's under the gun almost automatically afterwards. One active townie for a currently unsuspicious scum doesn't seem like too good of a trade-off to me. Also, nice addition of the pissed off townie, something I think we've seen plenty of scum do in the past. Hahaahhahahah yeah, I should claim my role in the thread as soon as I'm accused. Ace strategy, sport. I wasn't sure if I was going to be lynched before - PRs should only publicly claim when they're being lynched. And yet you weren't being lynched yet. There was simply an investigation result against you. If you're a townie, I'd be expecting you to fight back with behavioral arguments leaving your PR reveal till a little later in hopes of keeping it hidden from scum. You can take your vote and shove it up your megablocks. I'm town. I bet you're scum too, just salivating thinking of being able to lynch me so early. Lovely, more "townie-tirade". One day you're saying Carlisa is more than likely townie, the next you're saying she's scum simply because she voiced a suspicion of you after evidence was presented? You should know better than that. Actually, judging by how literally nobody knows how to read me, it might have been town blocking me. I was just informed that I was blocked, not of who did it. I'm just assuming that it was scum, because I'd like to believe that people in town have at least a little common sense. Insulting townies' intelligence? Oh, if I had a nickel for every time a scum did that. And why wouldn't it target me? There was no obvious investigation target. I was as good as anyone. They obviously see me as a threat, but see enough support in-thread for my possible lynch to go for it by first killing Laurence and then framing me. Why go killing one of the people that could have helped lead the case against you? It seems to me that there were only 2-3 people that were wary of you yesterday. If the scum wanted to see you falsely lynched, I'd be saving every single one of them up in order to bandwagon against you. Again better yet, why not just kill you instead of Lawrence if they felt you were the bigger threat? I really wish you people could learn to trust behaviors over results. Results can be messed with and proven wrong. Behaviors can't. Come on, Melanie, you're smart enough to not fall for scum's trap here! :skeptic: Results can be tested, verified, and utilized to root out more scum. Behaviors, yes can be tested and verified, however they can't be used to root out more scum. Your words seem to me little more than a scum trying to act like a pissed-off townie, not the collected leader who would have approached such accusations with reason and surety. Vote: Paris Shawty (Tamamono)
Dannylonglegs Posted July 30, 2013 Posted July 30, 2013 Alright, time for contribution. For the following analysis, I will assume that Paris is scum. While I'd love to believe her story, it is unlikely to be true, and we must test the cop's results regardless of what Paris could offer to the town if they're false. I have been talking to her since the beginning of day one, which I hope has given me a unique insight into her mind. I begrudgingly admit that Paris, assuming she's scum, is an exceedingly adept manipulator, and has quite frankly had me under her spell since seconds into the game. Hopefully it's a two-way street though. If Paris is scum, I will likely be their night kill, unless I'm not as important as I think I am (and, given that on occasion I display somewhat narcissistic qualities, that is likely the case regardless. ) Paris, if you're reading this, and you are Towny, I am sorry for what will really just seem like insult to injury, but I can't take the chance that you are scum and not try to help my team get as much as it can from your demise. A. The night killer: I highly suspect that this was the Monster's kill. Not only do I believe we saw the Mobster in the group of monsters in the sign-up page, but also, considering Paris's likely affiliation, it makes sense to me that she would have her team kill her chief accuser hoping to be protected by the WIFOM argument that 'a scum would not do such a thing.' B. Brittany: I voted for her yesterday not at all convinced in her scumminess, but rather, simply to get a clue on the board. It would have been much more helpful if she had indeed turned out to be scum, but I'm not surprised that she was a Council member. C. Laurence: I did not receive one of the PMs he sent, but, through my discussions with Paris, I was under the impression that she was Scummy. This was an opinion that was not of my own origin, but I agreed with Paris. D. My Role: I've told Paris, so I might as well tell everyone: I am a Vanilla Townie. My minifigure is the Skater. Paris claimed to be the Forestman to me in private before he did in-thread, and also accidentally hinted that he was non-vanilla. I surprised him by asking him what his was and he was reluctant to say. This confirms that he is either a monster or a PR, but I suppose that's not news anymore. To everyone: Vanillas have CMF avatars too. It's entirely possible that Brittany and Laurence were vanilla too. It's also likely that minifigures have nothing to do with roles, but that's just my guess. E. My suspects: I've tried to be as objective as possible with all of my analysis, but my cozy relationship with Paris means that some of it may be directly influenced by her. I've tried to comb through it as best as possible, but it's still affected. I will Quote PMs for this to share my Analysis, as well as Paris'. This does not seem to be against the rules. There's 9 pages of banter, so I'll only be selecting important posts, and errasing any embarasing off-topic remarks. #Iuseavatarnames #sorry #IknowhowtoRP #Iswear #dohashtagshavecaps? #doesnottweetIRL Well, I'm still not convinced he[Dave]'s Scum. I just think there's no point in wasting our chance to get ahead. If we're really lucky and he is Scum, then we'll have allot to work with, so while I'm not sold, I think his lynch is the right move. Here's what I've got so far: This is a list of people who have made likely-to-be-honest arguments against, and who I therfore do not think are on the same team. WBD v. Pnuts Tammo v. Pnuts DP v. Tammo Lego Dad v. Pnuts Capt. RB v. Kadabra Jelly v. Tammo CMP v. Dave Lego Dad v. Mostly Tammo v. Dave DP v. Mostly WBD v. Dave Psykat v. Mostly mencot v. Mostly Endgame v. Dave Esurance v. Tammo FDY v. Dave Kadabra v. Dave? Also, these are the people I'm iffy on, in order of strength of suspicion: DP, LegoDad, Adam, Dave, Jelly, WBD, Endgame. I'm probably wrong about allot of this, but it's what I've got. To group-up a bit: Pnuts is not scummates with: Tammo, WBD, Lego Dad Tammo is not scum with: Pnuts, DP, Jelly, Dave, Esurance Dave is not scum with: Tammo, CMP, WBD, Endgame?, FDY? Lego Dad is not scum with: Mostly, Pnuts DP is not scum with: Mostly, Tammo WBD is not Scum with: Dave, Pnuts Mostly is not scum with: Dave, Pnuts, Lego Dad, Mencot, Psy These lists come from early in the day and are the most objective thing I have to show and therefor could use some reviewing to make sure that these were all honest arguments and not just Paris "Hardbussing" scummates, which I will do soon. I want to make sure it all gets out now though. Paris sent me this shortly thereafter. Awesome analysis, actually. All too often people don't look at the honest arguments. Peanuts and mostlytechnic and I are in a lot of those, which reduces the usefulness (since I think both are town), but if any of the people we're arguing with flip scum, it makes it even more likely that mostly/Peanuts are town, which is useful. Here's my opinion of everyone currently: DarthPotato: He's succeeded in doing literally nothing this game. The slap on the wrist he gave me for trying to analyze things early on seemed kinda townie to me at the time, but in hindsight there's no way to read it either way. We'll see what the rest of the game yields on him. Kristel: She's also done pretty much nothing. I got a slight townie vibe from her questioning of WBD's accusation of Peanuts, but again, there's really no way to read it. Another we'll have to see on... CallMePie: I don't think ever a game goes by where this guy towntells, ever. I'm willing to go with him because I like the Dave lynch, but he hasn't done anything too town. I guess his early vote is kinda town. If he's town, it'll be apparent due to a lack of scumtelling, not any real towntelling. PsyKater: What the hell has he even been up to?? He's done nothing. I remember him having problems staying active as scum. He's probably scum, actually. Purpearljellyblob: Like I said, part of me wants to townread her for being concise with her reads, which she usually isn't as scum, but I can't get over the fact that she literally cut out the piece of my post where I explained why my vote for Dave was not the same as what I was explaining. I'd call her scum who learned how to be more town from last game. Adam: Done nothing but bandwagon. He's usually kinda scummy, though. Gun to my head I'd call him scum. I wanna see what else he does later, though... Kadabra: Nobody else reads his comment as town. It really is a townie comment, whether he's town or not. He's not acting like he did in Harriet Slutter, though... Mencot: He seems his usual self. Probably town. Dave: Rest in pieces... Capt. Redblade: There's nothing explicitly scummy about him, but something feels really off about him. Like how you feel about Potato and how we both feel about LegoDad. Like, he's playing kinda like he did last game, but a bit different... Idk LegoDad: He's seriously bothering me. He's not acting like last game, but not like Aperture either. I'd have to say he's closest to Mafia Mafia right now, when he was scum. I'd be willing to call him scum right now. WBD: Seems helpful, thoughtful, and townie. The good old WBD is back!!! No more Witch! mostlytechic is mostlytownie (I'm not going to ever get tired of this joke) Peanuts: He's not really too active or anything, but his level headed response to WBD and then just the way he's carrying himself reads town. I'd definitely call him town for now. Endgame: Idk how to read this guy. You played with him in EB II, right? He's got a townie-ish vibe going on, but hasn't really done anything. That makes me uneasy... His reaction to Dave's vote was good. If Dave is scum, Endgame's town. Esurient: He's town, but I wish he wasn't. Then we could get rid of him without killing town. You: I'd call you null leaning scum if we weren't talking. I'm seeing a pretty genuine looking thought process though, so if you're scum, good job I guess. You better not get me back for Jedi Temple a year late. Fred Daniel Yam: Another one who's always scummy. He seems kinda more invested in this game than he has been in the past. Kinda like Darth Potato here, I don't know what to think. Hopefully the later days will provide more insight on him. Nemo: Seems really scum. He's been middle ground and forced. ~~~~~ To sum it up: Scum: PsyKater, Jelly, Adam, Dave, Redblade, LegoDad, Nemo. Way too many scumreads, though. I'm definitely wrong about a couple of these guys. Others are null or town. I have no doubts that he "hardbussed" some scum into his list of scum, so that might be worth looking into. I followed up with my own list, which I'll show you all. Nice! I'll do one like yours too. DarthPotato: I concur. He's done next to nothing, and the way he's thinking just strikes me as scummy. 75% scummy (default is 50-55%) Kristel: I don't have a great read on Kristel. 50% CallMePie: Well, from what I can tell, he's been acting like he did in Western, but that could just be how he acts. If Dave shows up as Town, I may be more suspicious of him. 55% PsyKater: you, know, I'm sorta with you there. I don't have a great read either way on him, but I'm leaning scum. 55% Purpearljellyblob: I don't have a great read here either, but I'd be willing to believe he's scum. 60% Adam: Some of the later things he said today gave me a scummy impression. 70% Kadabra: No strong read here, either. 55% Mencot: No strong read here. 50% Dave: I feel like he's likely Town. 45% Capt. Redblade: I don't have a great read on him either. I feel like he's acting just like he did last game. 50% LegoDad: I fell the same. Scummy IMO. 75% WBD: I don't have a great read on him, but I lean scummy. 55% mostlytechic: mostlikelytownie, yup. 40% Peanuts: I feel like he's behaving similarly to he did last game. 45% Endgame: I wouldn't go so far as to say I 'played' much that game. I don't know how to read him either, but I lean Scum in general. Particularly when he cast his vote. 55% Esurient: I lean Town on him too, but it's a weak read at best. At least you and he are unlikely to be on the same scum team. 50% You: I feel like you're behaving like you did in the beginning of Jedi, when you were Town. I'd hat to be tricked by you a second time, so I'm saying you're scum until proven otherwise. 135% Fred Daniel Yam: yeah, I don't have much of a read on him either, but he's either stuck out to me in some way, or I'm leaning Scum, I'm not sure which. 55% Nemo: I haven't picked up a scummy vibe from what he's said, but I could be wrong. 55% To be clear, my thoughts have changed a bit since then. This is the last list I sent him, shortly before the cop results. Alright, well, here are my amended reads on folks. I'm copying what I wrote to myself, so replace all instances of the word Tammo with 'You' DarthPotato: 70% (Likely not on same team as Nemo, but if Tammo is scum disregard. Seems to have changed today. More on-attack.) Kristel: 55% CallMePie: 60% PsyKater: 55% Purpearljellyblob: Adam: 55% Kadabra: 55% Mencot: 55% Dave: Capt. Redblade: 55% LegoDad: 70% (if scum, Tammo is not.) WBD: 55% mostlytechic: 50% (If Tammo is scum, maybe so is Mostly?) Endgame: 60% Esurient: 55% (maybe scum if Tammo is. Otherwise unlikely.) Tammo: 50 (most of my opinions are tied to his. Need to change this.) Fred Daniel Yam: 70% (acting really scummy today and yesterday) Nemo: 60% (not likely Scum w/ Tammo) Peanuts: 50% As you can see I was beginning to have doubts. I'm not sure how helpful this last one even is, since I trust Paris to be more-than-capable of meatshielding scum, but I think the real key to figuring out who's what and so on will be from thearguments made by Paris's teammates, and not solely from those made by Paris. While She may be a manipulative sociopath, I suspect that her teammates will have failed to maintain her level of meatshielding. I will not vote for Paris today, as I suspect that her Lynch needs no help. I do not want the day ending early.
Recommended Posts