Ragnarök Now Redux - Nights (Players Only)

[Rick]

Rurik- It's pretty obvious that I'm talking about Naemr in that last part from yesterday, not Wilhalm. Why would you think I was talking about Wilhalm?

Because it was your response to this post by Patrekr, which was about Wilhalm's response to Naemr.

Sounds like a really ridiculous conclusion to come to. Why would two scum attach to each other so early in the game and over nothing at all. It's not like Naemr's post was game-changing or anything like that. Generally scum like to keep their distance from one another. Granted there is the possibility that both of them spoke over-eagerly and their posts were pretty close together, but I would certainly lean towards only one of them being scum.

[CorneliusMurdock]

I'm satisfied, though I don't see how voting for Dufa helped advanced anything so late in the day.

It told all of you how strongly I felt about it. You should all be able to remember what I said tomorrow if I don't happen to be around.

[Darkdragon]

How do you think he can prove himself? Chances are he's not going to find the SK tonight.

I don't really know. Unless we have a role cop or he does find the SK, I don't really see a way for definitive proof. I guess we could watch him every night to make sure he's not the SK or scum killer, but that doesn't seem like a good use of resources. All we can really do is investigate and hope he isn't godfather if he comes up as town, right?

[Scubacarrot]

I'm pretty sure he's town, but his actions annoy the hell out of me.

Yeah, I'm kind of a dick like that.

Does anyone else think that this whole Snotra-Lefsi argument seems very made-up? It almost sounds like Snotra is talking so freely about the vig killing Lefsi to ensure that the vig won't do that.

Your face is made up.

[fhomess]

I assume you didn't get a chance to be around?

Not until just before the day ended. With 3 votes shy of a securing lynch on Naemr, I was satisfied to leave my vote with Gofraid. I was pretty disappointed to see that so many refrained from casting a vote at all.

[def]

I'm wondering a lot about yesterday's vote (except Mursi's, that's pretty obvious). Seven people didn't vote.

(WhiteFang, Fugazi, Hinckley, Sisco, Bob, Captain Nemo, CallMePie)

Sigrid excluded, how plausible is it that six townies wouldn't vote? Were the scum avoiding a lynch on a scummy (Naemr), without putting their necks on the line by pushing another lynch? Wary made some good points, better than anyone else, so that should have gone through.

I'm also feeling suss on Wilhalm. As much as the psychologist is a role, considering the last Ragnarok had two vigs and no SK, it is a rather convenient claim, unlikely to be counter-claimed.

[Fugazi]

You think Naemr's Einherjar and "think it can go either way" at the same time? I know it seems like I'm dissecting everything you say, but what do you think about Naemr affiliation?

I think that he's Einherjar, but given that my belief is mostly based on gut feeling I wouldn't be overly surprised if he turns out to be scum. I have been wrong time and again, case in point Kolgrima only yesterday.

And where did you expect more evidence to come from?

The usual: inspiration from reviewing the daily logs, claims, slip-ups, action results. Sometimes clues do pop up unexpectedly.

[Fugazi]

I'm wondering a lot about yesterday's vote (except Mursi's, that's pretty obvious). Seven people didn't vote.

(WhiteFang, Fugazi, Hinckley, Sisco, Bob, Captain Nemo, CallMePie)

Sigrid excluded, how plausible is it that six townies wouldn't vote? Were the scum avoiding a lynch on a scummy (Naemr), without putting their necks on the line by pushing another lynch? Wary made some good points, better than anyone else, so that should have gone through.

I'm going to digest it for you:

6 players 'pushed the lynch' yesterday: Gofraid, Lefsi, Wary, Patrekr, Chlodochar, Dragstyrr

7 players refrained from voting because 'they wanted to save Naemr and were too sissy to push another lynch': Wilhalm, Gofraid, Helga, Sigrid, Baulf, Naemr and Canute.

Who's on both lists? Me!

I obviously don't think much of this, because you're assuming that scum pushed the lynch yesterday and you're also assuming that the non-voters today had an ulterior motive, disregarding the option that they just didn't buy the case against Naemr.

Because there's very little overlap between the two lists (and that the only overlapping player is Einherjar), my conclusion is that the scum who pushed the lynch yesterday also unsuccessfully pushed for the one today, or that scum who didn't push for Petr's lynch yesterday also didn't push today. Either way, this shows that there are scum in all groups, equally today and yesterday.

Hmm... There's more to this I think.

[Fugazi]

Another way to group players:

Those who helped lynching Petr yesterday, but DIDN'T push for Naemr's lynch today: Canute, Naemr, Mursi, Helga, Jarni, Gofraid

Those who helped lynching Petr AND pushed for Naemr's lynch: Dragstyrr, Lefsi, Patrekr, Rurik, Wary

Those who DIDN'T vote for Petr but pushed for Naemr's lynch: Dufa

Those who DIDN'T vote for Petr and DIDN'T push for Naemr's lynch: Baulf, Finn, Snotra, Wilhalm.

Personally I think that the group most likely to include scum is the second, but in all likelihood Servants of Loki have attempted to distance each other and there could be scum in every group. Pick your favourite!

[def]

It's very interesting analysis you've done, Gofraid I wish I had thought of it.

[CorneliusMurdock]

Why, so you could also appear helpful?

Gofraid, I'm not sure what you're trying to do there. It is very detailed information you've compiled but your actually analysis results in nothing. Scum could be anyone is what you're saying, right?

[jimmynick]

I'm fine with you suspecting Dufa, but how is placing a vote against him helping us move things forward? Votes placed after a sealed lynch I can understand, but this. Same goes for you Mursi. Canute, you brought up another good fact about Naemr, are you going to act on it?

By that point, it was clear that Naemr wasn't getting lynched. So I decided to put my formalized (and confident) suspicion on Dufa.

Why, so you could also appear helpful?

Exactly what I thought. Dufa, when you congratulate Gofraid for presenting a set of arranged data as "analysis", it makes me feel even better about the vote I placed yesterday.

[CorneliusMurdock]

Okay, you're creeping me out, Jarni. Are you some kind of parrot?

[jimmynick]

No, I'm not. I've been reading on and off without posting, and now I've put my thoughts down. If anything, the fact we think the same about Gofraid's "analysis" indicates how obviously superficial his contribution is.

And you should be able to tell I'm a child-sparing Einherjar, not a parrot!

[CorneliusMurdock]

I'm not saying that the logic isn't there to believe the same things I do, it just seems like you're copying the things I do. I find it strange.

[def]

Why, so you could also appear helpful?

You found something I wrote scummy? No shit. Unbelievable At this point it goes without saying that the brick wall that is Mursi is going to find a way to take whatever I say as a scum tell. He sure isn't actually thinking about it.

Let's recap his vote yesterday:

Dufa: Mursi did push to change the lynch from Sigrid to Petr.

Mursi: He's trying to get me vig killed! Scum!!! :cry3:

Dufa: I said 24 hours before that if Sigrid was town, you were most likely town, since a scummy would have no reason to make that move. That is not trying to get you vig-killed.

Mursi: He's back-tracking on stuff! Scum!!!! :cry3: :cry3: Vote: Dufa!

I think there was more baby talk on his part though.

So you know what? Let's just say that every little thing I say, no matter what, is a scum tell in the eyes of Mursi, then we won't have to hear you flap your gums so much. And when this is all said and done, you can either say A) sorry, I had to. I was scum or B) sorry, I read it wrong.

To the rest of town, Mursi is currently figuring out how to make this post a scum tell too.

At Jami, I don't know if you are the brick wall type like Mursi or not, but the main thing with my vote yesterday is that there is a plausible argument against Naemr, and I was willing to go with it. I don't think a scum team would allow what he wrote, but that was one part of a very large argument against him and a single point doesn't prove him innocent. Some people get their hearts set on a person being scum or town, and allow no amount of information to affect their decisions. I am not like that. I like to take information into account and make decisions based on it. Unless I'm the investigator, I'm always thinking in probabilities, and am never decided 100% either way, until I have evidence. You can call that a scum tell and being contradictory, but I think that's important in this situation: the ability to reevaluate information on the fly and adjust.

[Hinckley]

Finally had a chance to look back over things.

From a deep and crazy experience I had with him, I knew he had an interest in out there behavior. So I told Mursi, and he just brushed it off, saying it wasn't plausible (that's not the exact phrase, let me quote him).

What the significance of Petr having "an interest in out there behavior"? What exactly did Mursi brush off?

So, he asked my opinion, got an answer that wasn't the narrative he was building, and pushed on with his lynch plan. Now, he did use the word "honestly," so I suppose he couldn't be lying, but it seems like he wanted to take over the vote.

Case in point: a bunch of people vote for Sigrid, and he makes it out to be a scum rush to save him, since he's so sure Sigrid is town (because...?). When even more people rush in to vote for Petr, did any bells go off that that might have been the scum vote to save Sigrid? If it did, I missed it. If it didn't, I think that might have been deliberate.

Well, that's the thing. You asked me, and I said he was very much wanting to do crazy stuff when I worked with him. So by didn't account, you mean to say, willingly ignored the fact.

And you're ignoring the question of why you assumed Sigrid was being voted for to save Petr, but ignored the fact that a bunch of votes piled in to lynch Petr.

Be straight, you can just tell us you're scum, it'll make it easier

*say how > saw how

For the record, this was what I told Mursi about Petr. Mursi wants to say, "With the information available..." but that's not 100% the case.

Like, the vote on Mist was pulled back on because we knew what was common for his character, and I think Mursi, an experienced player, could have done the same here.

It's not that you thought Petr was more suspicious than Sigrid that we're after you. It's that you made it a point to get Petr lynched and not Sigrid. I think a townie would have recognized that distinction as well. So that's a thing.

You said what you said did not change anyone´s opinions, clearly it did.

It's hard to follow the accusation against Mursi because you two keep focusing on his reactions and then you all three devolve into bickering. I think I have the solid points isolated in the above quotes. Let's not forget that Petr told us he was acting Scummy on purpose so people probably voted for him...because he was acting Scummy. Dufa, it's unsettling that your argument against Mursi seems to be that you knew Petr was faking it. Assuming that's what you mean by telling Mursi that Petr was into "out there" behavior. That's more suspicious to me than Mursi "steering the vote" which I don't think he did. That doesn't mean he isn't a Servant. The accusation just seems like a stretch. I'm not sure what's making you so confident about it.

I have no clue what you're talking about. Let's recap what happened:

Day one - much of the town is not saying much, and either not voting or throwing votes away at someone nobody else is going to vote for. I urge people to focus votes on the top three vote-getters. Are you accusing me of making sure the people under the most pressure got more pressure? What was wrong with that? Did you have a better course of action? Are you offering one today?

Day two - I have concerns about the vote, and Mursi and Sigrid's place in it. I propose some conclusions we could make from either lynch. It's not a voting plan, unless people agree. But it was one idea. One of the reasons to bring things up is to get people's opinions on things. So far, it seems that everybody except Snotra and Mursi couldn't care less. It's turning me off being active when fourteen other players can't be bothered to have an opinion. What do you think about Sigrid and Mursi? You are the famous Helga. Since when do you not weigh in on every little thing? The only person that seems to be putting in heavy analysis is Wary.

I'm saying it's really easy for a Scumbag to manipulate the vote by making a list or pairing for people to choose from if he knows who is Town and who is Scum. That's more dangerous "campaigning" than what you're accusing Mursi of.

I think our best bet for today, barring any sort of night action result, will be figuring out what happened with the voting yesterday taking the 5 dead allegiances into account specifically as they apply to the three top candidates: Mist, Petr, and Sigrid. I believe Finn and Rurik have both offered good starting analysis thus far, but I wanted to add something that I noticed

Naemr: Snorta (unvotes to secure a lynch), Dagstyrr (unovtes to secure lynch)

Wilhalm: Turmi (Convinced to unvote by Helga and Dufa), Kolgrima, Lefsi (unvotes to secure a lynch)

Mist had 5 original votes: Dufa (starts accusation, convinced to unvote by Mist,), Helga (In agreement with Dufa, unvotes to ensure a lynch), Chlodochar (unvotes to secure lynch), Wary (In agreement with Chlodochar, unvotes to secure a lynch), Rurik (unvotes to secure a lynch), Sigrid (convinced to unvote by Jarni)

Jarni: Finn (Starts accusation, unvotes to secure a lynch)

Petr: Naemir (Starts accusation), Jarni, Mursi, Helga, Canute, Rurik, Godfried, Lefsi, Wary, Patrekr, Dagstyrr, Chlodochar

Kolgrima: Gofraid (Starts accusation, unvotes to secure a lynch)

Chlodochar: Turmi (unvotes to secure a lynch)

Lefsi: Dufa (agrees with Godfried on suspicion, unvotes to ensure a lynch), Patrekr (agrees with Dufa and Godfried, unvotes to secure a lynch)

Sigrid: Petr, Baulf, Dufa (votes to secure a lynch), Snorta, Finn, Turmi, Wilhalm, Mist, Patrekr (unvotes because too many suspicious people are voting for Sigrid)

Toward the end of the day, everyone started bailing to either of the two candidates Petr or Sigrid. Let's assume that both Sigrid and Petr are innocent (the latter we know for a fact), then the servants of Loki more than likely wouldn't care who was lynched. As Sigrid had the lead at one point in votes we could assume that any remaining servants of Loki would have jumped on that bandwagon unless we suspect 4 of the first 6 votes to be composed of scum attempting an early rushed vote, which seems highly unlikely to me. Now if we flip the coin and assume Sigrid is indeed a servant of Loki and again assume that 4 of the first 6 votes against him are highly unlikely to be bussing scum then it makes perfect sense to see a bandwagon form on Petr. After all if those first 6 votes on Sigrid were placed by innocents (2 of which we know were) then that leaves approximately 5 scum to take out a different suspect and keep suspicion off of Sigrid. If we look at the last votes cast after the tie with Sigrid (Godfried, Lefsi, myself, Patrekr, Dagstyrr, and Chlodochar), 3 of those were made after swiftly unvoting another suspect whom they had respectively accused on tangent accusations (a generally scummy tactic) (Godfried, Lefsi, and Dagstyrr). Of those three, Dagstyrr had commented very little and his tangential vote was made during the end of the day (something I believe a scum would have avoided seeing how close they were to getting an innocent lynched), Lefsi who had fallen in with the crowd who were confused by Wilhalm's playstyle, and Godfried who placed a safe vote against a now confirmed Kolgrima accusing her of placing a scummy vote on Wilhalm when there were other easier suspects to accuse i.e. Mist or Petr. Of the three I'm most suspicious of Godfried at this point.

Thanks for taking the time to analyze the vote, but what happened to your suspicion of Gofraid? You came back later in the day with a thorough analysis of Naemr's behavior, but no more mention of who you're most suspicious of. You're doing a great job of riding that middle line I was talking about. Being just active enough to appear helpful, but not making enough waves to draw attention. We've seen a lot of Scum in this middle ground in recent games and if it's a continuing trend I'd say we should look at Finn, Rurik, Wary and Canute. None of you have raised any major red flags and I'm speaking sporadically with Finn, Rurik and Canute by PM. But all four of you are highly skilled players and would make dangerous Scum.

As for me, I'll admit to thinking that Gofraid is a bit suspicious. Voting patterns let us group people into different subsets, and the one that interests me most from yesterday is the 6 votes that took the tally from 9-6 in favor of Sigrid to 12-8 in favor of Petr. Gofraid started that switch with the 7th vote for Petr, and that's what caused me to start looking at him.

I don't agree with your analysis:

Even though Sigrid hasn't been very helpful so far, I doubt that her Loki team would let her keep up this sort of behaviour. I'm more interested in Petr's 'scum trap' and how he never got back to us with his conclusions.

Unvote: Kolgrima the Deep-Minded (Kristel)

Vote: Petr Half-Troll (Piratedave84)

I will be around until the end of the day, waiting for Petr to explain himself and ready to change my vote if need be.

I see this as placing a vote, not "starting a switch". He even (supposedly) waits until the end of the day see if Petr responds. Again, this doesn't exonerate him, but I don't think it's a solid lead against Gofraid.

I don't really know. Unless we have a role cop or he does find the SK, I don't really see a way for definitive proof. I guess we could watch him every night to make sure he's not the SK or scum killer, but that doesn't seem like a good use of resources. All we can really do is investigate and hope he isn't godfather if he comes up as town, right?

I'm beginning to see what Finn meant by not encouraging inactive Scum to speak up by saying that the middle ground might be where they're hiding. Dagstyr, it would be nice if you put some more effort into the game. You've been active before. Your sporadic contributions are starting to make it seem like you have something to hide.

[CorneliusMurdock]

I've put a lot of thought into it, Dufa. I'm sorry that I see through you. It must be really annoying. Almost as annoying as your inaccurate summary of events.

You are normally a strong force for town when you're loyal. And you're not one this time. I've had a lot of interaction with you so far and I can see it.

[Fugazi]

Gofraid, I'm not sure what you're trying to do there. It is very detailed information you've compiled but your actually analysis results in nothing. Scum could be anyone is what you're saying, right?

Not exactly. I'm not going to serve you the scum names on a platter if that's what you're looking for in an analysis, but I'm trying to get some discussion going. I pointed out that in my opinion one of the groups I mentioned is more likely to include scum members. Do you agree or disagree?

Okay, you're creeping me out, Jarni. Are you some kind of parrot?

You seem awfully jumpy, what's so creepy about people agreeing with you?

No, I'm not. I've been reading on and off without posting, and now I've put my thoughts down. If anything, the fact we think the same about Gofraid's "analysis" indicates how obviously superficial his contribution is.

Don't get me started on your contributions so far.

[CorneliusMurdock]

Not exactly. I'm not going to serve you the scum names on a platter if that's what you're looking for in an analysis, but I'm trying to get some discussion going. I pointed out that in my opinion one of the groups I mentioned is more likely to include scum members. Do you agree or disagree?

I think I speak for most of us when I say that we'd love the scum names served on a platter along with their heads.

Your analysis lacked commitment. You said that any group could contain scum. I don't see how that alone helps us. It's vague, like a fortune teller's prediction.

Why do you think that group is more likely to contain a scum? Which members of said group do you think are more likely based on their other words and actions?

You seem awfully jumpy, what's so creepy about people agreeing with you?

That wasn't the first time he's agreed with me, the timing seemed off to me. Has Jarni had an original thought?

[def]

Why does Helga need things re-explained to her? All of her questions for me are things that have been explained already. She's unable to understand, or wants to muddy the waters?

What the significance of Petr having "an interest in out there behavior"? What exactly did Mursi brush off?

Mursi asked me about Petr's wacky antics, and I let him know that it was within his character to be wacky. To pull a stunt to try and draw people out. I wasn't saying he was definitely town, but that it should be kept in mind when making a decision. Mursi had no interest in it.

It's hard to follow the accusation against Mursi because you two keep focusing on his reactions and then you all three devolve into bickering. I think I have the solid points isolated in the above quotes. Let's not forget that Petr told us he was acting Scummy on purpose so people probably voted for him...because he was acting Scummy. Dufa, it's unsettling that your argument against Mursi seems to be that you knew Petr was faking it. Assuming that's what you mean by telling Mursi that Petr was into "out there" behavior. That's more suspicious to me than Mursi "steering the vote" which I don't think he did. That doesn't mean he isn't a Servant. The accusation just seems like a stretch. I'm not sure what's making you so confident about it.

That's really misleading. I didn't know he was faking anything. I did think his explanation was plausible. And when he sent a PM to me about Tumi (while I was sleeping) before he died, that really made him lean town. But at the time, I was quite unsure, and would have been willing to vote for him to secure a lynch.

I'm saying it's really easy for a Scumbag to manipulate the vote by making a list or pairing for people to choose from if he knows who is Town and who is Scum. That's more dangerous "campaigning" than what you're accusing Mursi of.

Really? The only person who took issue with it at the time was Kristel. It's convenient that you see this as a scum tell now, and not at the time when you jumped on the Petr bandwagon. There were around twelve hours left, and there wasn't going to be a lynch. So I suggested we rally our votes around the top three suspects. Get it? I didn't choose those people. The town did. They were the top three. Making it sound like I just plucked these three and forced you to vote for them is completely misleading. Again, you should have brought it up at the time if you thought it was a scum ploy to manipulate the vote. But you didn't....

I wish I could address the rest of what you've said, but I have to work, and I'm already going to be a little late because I wanted to deal with this attempt to distract the town. Helga.

[CorneliusMurdock]

When you get a free moment, Dufa, could you explain what it that you think Helga is distracting the town from?

You keep saying I had no interest in your opinion about Petr. Both your opinion and my reply to it have been quoted. I think it's clear that I was discussing it with you from that.

[Scubacarrot]

The investigator is super suspicious (he's a day investigator, if that wasn't clear). He said he'd investigate Rurik, because we thought, hey, he's suspicious. Turns out, he didn't do that. Nope. Decided to investigate someone else. That person conveniently turned out to be not a servant of loki as well.

What are the chances the investigator has been stringing me along the entire time?

[CorneliusMurdock]

Do you think he's scum with Rurik or the other person that was investigated?

You do realize that this investigation result is the only thing that makes some of us think you may be town?

[CMP]

You do realize that this investigation result is the only thing that makes some of us think you may be town?

That's what I was thinking. It's awful strange how that investigator is trustworthy right up until after you claim he investigated you as town, Snotra.