Future Set Wishes and Speculation

[Bartybum]

On 1/19/2024 at 12:38 AM, dhc6twinotter said:

It could also be done with 6 motors and a 3 position gearbox, if the wheels were driven through the gearbox (which I’m not a fan of).

I've said this twice before but if TLG didn't **** themselves so hard by developing a 4-port smart hub and instead went for 6 ports, it could be done with five motors, each with a two position gearbox. That way gives you two modes of operation - drive and backhoe:

Motor 1 - drive wheels or backhoe boom

Motor 2 - MLA steering or backhoe knuckle

Motor 3 - lift arm or backhoe stick

Motor 4: bucket tilt or backhoe swing

Motor 5: gearbox and stabilizers

But nope, now we're stuck with four ports forever...

Edited January 20, 2024 by Bartybum

[AVCampos]

22 minutes ago, Bartybum said:

if TLG didn't **** themselves so hard by developing a 4-port smart hub and instead went for 6 ports

The SPIKE hub would like to have a word with you.

[pleegwat]

10 hours ago, Bartybum said:

Motor 2 - MLA steering or backhoe knuckle

Steering through gearbox?

[howitzer]

10 hours ago, AVCampos said:

The SPIKE hub would like to have a word with you.

I don't see them using that hub in Technic sets though, so while it exists, it's not like we're going to see it in actual sets outside educational sets.

I hope I'm wrong though.

[Jundis]

On 1/17/2024 at 8:51 AM, Jundis said:

As the missing numbers are 42165 and 42172 to 42177, here is my speculation (or rather wishlist) for 7 technic models for Summer 2024:

- Cargo Aircraft with lifting nose                               800 pieces    80€
- Flatbed Truck with rear crane (49.5 tires)           1200 pieces    119€
- RC Liebherr T274 Dump Truck (81.5 tires)        1200 pieces    159€
- RC Claas Tractor (81 and 107 tires) and trailer  2000 pieces    249€
- 3 Axle Mobile Crane (81.5 tires)                         2500 pieces    259€
- JCB Pneumatic Backhoe (107 tractor tires)       3500 pieces    349€
- McLaren 750S Spider Supercar                         3800 pieces    449€

Looks like I wasn't wrong, I was completely wrong :D

[Maaboo the Witch]

2 minutes ago, Jundis said:

Looks like I wasn't wrong, I was completely wrong :D

Yeah, you included only one car.

[gyenesvi]

6 hours ago, Jundis said:

Looks like I wasn't wrong, I was completely wrong :D

I thought you meant that as a wish list, while knowing that it's totally unrealistic :D

16 hours ago, AVCampos said:

The SPIKE hub would like to have a word with you.

I don't think that would happen because of the unnecessarily expensive computer and the rechargeable battery in it (for which more complicated distribution laws apply in the EU).

But I'm curious if it would actually be possible to fit 6 ports into the form factor of the Technic Hub. I think it does not sound unreasonable.

[AVCampos]

I believe the extra ports would physically fit, but then the bottleneck could start being the AA batteries, tasked with having to power more and more current-hungry motors. Rechargeable Li-Ions are the future, but until there's an industry-wide standard that lets me buy more batteries in the future and keep playing when the current ones die (18650 is IMO a strong contender but it's still not nearly as widespread as AA/AAA/C/D), I still prefer regular ol' AAs and a charger for them.

[Bartybum]

On 1/20/2024 at 11:52 AM, AVCampos said:

The SPIKE hub would like to have a word with you.

The SPIKE hub has a fair bit more going on in it than a PU smart hub though, no?

16 hours ago, pleegwat said:

Steering through gearbox?

Yeah, with a medium linear actuator

[gyenesvi]

9 hours ago, AVCampos said:

I believe the extra ports would physically fit, but then the bottleneck could start being the AA batteries, tasked with having to power more and more current-hungry motors.

I think that's not a problem in many builds, like a backhoe would be as we don't want to run all the motors at once, only 1 or 2. Also, I guess it's not only the ports that need to fit physically, but they may require two more motor drivers as well, though I am not sure how things are implemented on the chip inside the hub.

9 hours ago, AVCampos said:

Rechargeable Li-Ions are the future, but until there's an industry-wide standard that lets me buy more batteries in the future and keep playing when the current ones die (18650 is IMO a strong contender but it's still not nearly as widespread as AA/AAA/C/D), I still prefer regular ol' AAs and a charger for them.

Just checked the 18650, the length of it is 72mm, which is exactly 9 studs long, meaning it would just not fit into a 9 stud long casing.. That's not a good start..

[howitzer]

53 minutes ago, gyenesvi said:

I think that's not a problem in many builds, like a backhoe would be as we don't want to run all the motors at once, only 1 or 2. Also, I guess it's not only the ports that need to fit physically, but they may require two more motor drivers as well, though I am not sure how things are implemented on the chip inside the hub.

It's true that backhoe or many other machines wouldn't need all motors to be running simultaneously, but the hubs must still be able to account for that, as people are going to use them in their MOCs with no considerations of what they are capable. Having six ports would require heavier wiring and electronics, which would drive up the cost.

[nerdsforprez]

On 1/18/2024 at 1:39 PM, howitzer said:

Relative to weight, Liebherr wasn't that expensive. The huge number of large pieces drove the price up a lot.

Umm.... it literally came with weighted pieces.  True, they were all ABS, but the weighted pieces were each around 41 grams.  And 24 of them.  Thats nearly 1000 grams right there.  If by "huge number of large pieces" you mean the truss pieces, you are not correct.  If there was any driving up the price because of the weight increase, it was due to the weight blocks.  

Btw... Even considering the above, I believe it was that expensive.  The Daytona set came in at over 6900 grams (and it also was a notoriously bad value) which is less than 1000 grams less than the LR 13000 (6990 vs. 7982 per BL).  To put that in perspective that is only the (near exact) difference of the weight pieces only.  It is also licensed.  I get it has no electronics, but it was a whopping 250$ less than the LR 13000.  

[AVCampos]

10 hours ago, Bartybum said:

The SPIKE hub has a fair bit more going on in it than a PU smart hub though, no?

Yes, it has a matrix of monochrome LEDs, USB connection, regular Bluetooth in addition to BLE, more buttons, more memory, and runs on a proprietary Li-Ion battery..

Hmm, having written the above, I now see market for a hub that's between Technic and SPIKE in features.

[Ngoc Nguyen]

This year's flagship is supposed to be 42177 (18+) - 2891 pcs. Given the emphasis on Space, I think it can be crawler transporter with a rocket or a shuttle.

 

[pleegwat]

I don't think that'd make a good set. It's huge and there's not a lot of functions going on. Automatic leveling might be interesting?

As for the real thing, anything human sized would scale down smaller than a stud. I own Janotechnic's crawler. That thing weighs in near 8k pieces without the rocket and it's microfig scale.

[Jockos]

2 hours ago, Ngoc Nguyen said:

This year's flagship is supposed to be 42177 (18+) - 2891 pcs. Given the emphasis on Space, I think it can be crawler transporter with a rocket or a shuttle.

 

I can imagine a remake of 8480 without any accessories if it's space related, but I'd rather get a construction machine. Or, given 42183 isn't on the leaked list, this might be a space-thing.

[howitzer]

On 1/21/2024 at 3:09 PM, nerdsforprez said:

Umm.... it literally came with weighted pieces.  True, they were all ABS, but the weighted pieces were each around 41 grams.  And 24 of them.  Thats nearly 1000 grams right there.  If by "huge number of large pieces" you mean the truss pieces, you are not correct.  If there was any driving up the price because of the weight increase, it was due to the weight blocks.  

Btw... Even considering the above, I believe it was that expensive.  The Daytona set came in at over 6900 grams (and it also was a notoriously bad value) which is less than 1000 grams less than the LR 13000 (6990 vs. 7982 per BL).  To put that in perspective that is only the (near exact) difference of the weight pieces only.  It is also licensed.  I get it has no electronics, but it was a whopping 250$ less than the LR 13000.  

				Liebherr						
		Liebherr	no weights	Daytona	Zetros	Airbus	John Deere	Audi
Weight		7,982kg   	7,082kg		6,99kg	3,3kg	2,69kg	2,42kg		1,87kg
RRP		680,00€ 	680,00€		450,00€ 330,00€	210,00€	190,00€		170,00 €
						
€/kg		85,19		96,02		64,38	100,00	78,07	78,51		90,91

I ran some numbers on a few recent sets for comparison. Yes the counterweight pieces affect the outcome, but they also serve a purpose, it would be a pretty bad crane without counterweights. The truss pieces are also quite heavy, and so are the 3x19 and other frames which are quite plentiful there - not to mention the electronics. From the numbers above I'd say the Liebherr isn't exactly a great value but it's not abysmal either. I guess it comes down to whether you find the electronics and tons of frame parts useful or not, so it's not objectively bad or good, it depends on what you personally want. Funnily, it appears that Daytona is actually pretty good value in comparison to these other sets, though the lack of electronics certainly helps there.

[Jockos]

After that I'm curious if the rumoured 42177 will be something like the Liebherr (e.g. towercrane), or a "normal" set with smaller pieces.

[1gor]

1 hour ago, Jockos said:

After that I'm curious if the rumoured 42177 will be something like the Liebherr (e.g. towercrane), or a "normal" set with smaller pieces.

Liebherr or CAT?

(Since we have a Volvo pair; Excavator and FMX truck)

[Jockos]

42 minutes ago, 1gor said:

Liebherr or CAT?

(Since we have a Volvo pair; Excavator and FMX truck)

I wasn't thinking about the brand if that's what you mean, but the types you mention are correct. So a huge machine with fewer and bigger pieces, or a relatively smaller one with smaller pieces.

[howitzer]

Tower crane is weird in that it's one of the most visible piece construction machinery out there so it feels like a natural subject for Technic set but there's never been a tower crane set (b-models don't count). But I guess the boredom of truss building and necessary hugeness of such a set have prevented it from being realized so far. The new parts from 42146 however should change that, so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a tower crane set in few years.

[dhc6twinotter]

It’s hard to believe, but it’s been over 10 years since the 42009 mobile crane was released.  It might be time for another mobile crane.  
 

I’m still waiting on a proper flagship tow truck and backhoe, but I wouldn’t mind another mobile crane as well.

I also think an PU John Deere forwarder would be a very nice and very playable set.

[AVCampos]

8 minutes ago, dhc6twinotter said:

it’s been over 10 years since the 42009 mobile crane was released.  It might be time for another mobile crane.

I know they're not the same, but 42082 Big Red was released in the meanwhile, and if TLG released another mobile crane flagship, you can bet someone somewhere would moan that they keep repeating the same stuff, lost their creativity, are lazy, and other usual fan ramblings.

[Ngoc Nguyen]

There's a pattern for flagship cranes: 42009 in 2013, 42082 in 2018, and 42146 in 2023. Even though 42146 is a crawler crane, it's still a crane nonetheless. Therefore we can expect no flagship crane for the next 4-5 years.

[howitzer]

1 hour ago, Ngoc Nguyen said:

There's a pattern for flagship cranes: 42009 in 2013, 42082 in 2018, and 42146 in 2023. Even though 42146 is a crawler crane, it's still a crane nonetheless. Therefore we can expect no flagship crane for the next 4-5 years.

Do you have some sort of official source for this pattern? Because just having three crane sets with 5 year intervals makes for a pretty poor pattern, and TLG isn't under any obligation to follow such patterns anyway.

Flagship scale mobile crane would be nice though. Hopefully with three-section boom with synchronized hook travel and at least 6 axles.