Steinkopf Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 My personal theory is that the 3677 red cargo train was released specifically to target North America, since the yellow cargo train was unidentifiable as a cargo train to that market. I wouldn't say that is the case as the locomotive in that set is very much like the MaK G series of locomotives which are used by a large number of railways in Western Europe, I think if anything it was designed to add more stock and playability to the train series. With passenger trains the playability is somewhat limited in that train stops at stations, figs may possibly be moved in or out of the train and train departs station, cargo trains on the other hand have a greater diversity of loads and ways of loading and unloading them which adds in new levels of playability. Also the 3677 train has a number of 4 wheel wagons in it which is more akin to European railways, albeit the numbers of 4 wheel rolling stock in Europe is diminishing as it is moving more towards higher volume bogie stock, US railroads have been using bogie stock for freight cars for over a 100 years.
cdmv Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 On this list, no train is mentioned: January: 75069 Slave 1, 10246 Detective’s Office February: 76042 Avenger’s Helicarrier (VIP Only) March: 76042 Avenger’s Helicarrier (Public release) April: 71016 Simpson’s Kwik-E-Mart (VIP Only) May: 75059 UCS TIE Fighter, 71016 Simpson’s Kwik-E-Mart, 10247 Ferris Wheel June: 10247 Ferris Wheel July: 10248 Ferrari F40 August: 70751 Ninjago Temple September: 70751 Ninjago Temple. October: Hoth Echo Base, 10249 Winter Toy Shop
legonerd54321 Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 On this list, no train is mentioned: January: 75069 Slave 1, 10246 Detective’s Office February: 76042 Avenger’s Helicarrier (VIP Only) March: 76042 Avenger’s Helicarrier (Public release) April: 71016 Simpson’s Kwik-E-Mart (VIP Only) May: 75059 UCS TIE Fighter, 71016 Simpson’s Kwik-E-Mart, 10247 Ferris Wheel June: 10247 Ferris Wheel July: 10248 Ferrari F40 August: 70751 Ninjago Temple September: 70751 Ninjago Temple. October: Hoth Echo Base, 10249 Winter Toy Shop It's not an exclusive..
peterab Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 My personal theory is that the 3677 red cargo train was released specifically to target North America, since the yellow cargo train was unidentifiable as a cargo train to that market. I was told prior to it's release by someone with very close ties to the design labs that it was intended to take the place of the Yellow cargo train when it sold out. Subsequent events make it look like the strong sales of both may have led to more production of the Yellow cargo train, which then outlived the red one. I'm sure the more recognisable shape didn't hurt the sales of the red one in North America, but the lead time probably argues that the Blue cargo train is more likely to have been influenced by North America than the red one.
cdmv Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 It's not an exclusive.. Well, a Creator Expert train is bound to be an Exclusive is it not? So will it be released in november/december? Still it is strange that the HE has been retired so soon. Why would TLG want a 10 month gap without an Creator Expert train. Poor sales of the HE?
just2good Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 Well, a Creator Expert train is bound to be an Exclusive is it not? So will it be released in november/december? Still it is strange that the HE has been retired so soon. Why would TLG want a 10 month gap without an Creator Expert train. Poor sales of the HE? It's not a LEGO Creator Expert set. It's a LEGO City set. It's not an exclusive.. It's not a D2C, however, it is a store exclusive to a place like Toys"R"Us (as well as being available on S@H and LEGO Stores).
lightningtiger Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 The new heavy haul train should pop up at Lego World like the 3677 did all those years ago.
MusicaRibelle Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 And that's in a month? We'll see.. still, it's a bit disappointing to see HE go away and have to hope at best for a city train.. oh, well.
Inzane Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 (edited) Advanced Trains: 2009: Emerald Night 2011: Maersk Train 2013: Horizon Express 2015: ?? City Trains: 2006: 7897 Passenger Train 2006: 7898 Cargo Train Deluxe 2010: 7938 Passenger Train 2010: 7939 Cargo Train 2011: 3677 Red Cargo Train 2014: 60051 High-Speed Passenger Train 2014: 60052 Cargo Train 2015: ?? 2018: the next city passenger train? 2018: the next city cargo train? 3677 really bucked a trend. Is it possible 2015 will be bringing BOTH a bonus city train AND the next Advanced (Creator/Expert) train? Edited January 21, 2015 by Inzane
MusicaRibelle Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 And don't forget what's pictured in your signature, the 2006 holiday train.
Inzane Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 October: Hoth Echo Base, 10249 Winter Toy Shop I'm off topic, but "say whaaaat??" Yet ANOTHER hoth base set? That's disappointing to get another one so soon when there are other playset possibilities they could still mine (Yavin: never been done, Cloud City: redo long due, etc. to name a couple). And a winter toy shop? After the original toy shop and the recent santa's workshop they've run out of original ideas for the winter village theme and have to start recycling already??
cdmv Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 It's not a LEGO Creator Expert set. It's a LEGO City set. It's not a D2C, however, it is a store exclusive to a place like Toys"R"Us (as well as being available on S@H and LEGO Stores). I'm sorry for the misunderstanding, but I'm not speculating about the new City train, but about the new Advanced or Creator Expert train. Shouldn't there be one getting a released this year? Another forummer said that it would be due in Q3 of this year. That just seems like a long gap between these train releases. So since 10249 is a Winter Village set it should be something like set 10251 in november, if the rumour is true. I'm wondering what the logic behind this decision is, since the EM, Maersk and HE were all released much earlier in the year.
andythenorth Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 Nobody here knows, or if they do, they're not allowed to say. Assume that some people in TLG know. There is no value in trying to project release patterns in the future based on previous releases. It's just not how it works. Probably the logic behind no Creator Expert train announcement is that there isn't one to announce. That's what I would conclude anyway. Quite plausibly Creator trains are dropped due to poor total sales, or excessive development cost relative to sales (these are two different things). But I know no more than you do about this.
Steinkopf Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 (edited) In all honesty when it comes to new train sets I don't really get that excited unless they have new elements in them, the last set I purchased was the 60051 High Speed Train about 6 months ago, I really liked the nose on that train and wanted to build a modified version of the set. Prior to that the last train set purchase I made was back in 2007 when I bought my second copy of 7898, which coincidentally like all my other train set purchases got turned into a source of parts to build MOC's with, if LEGO won't build the trains you want why not build them yourself. Edited January 21, 2015 by Steinkopf
cimddwc Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 Yeah, we just can't be sure about any release pattern. Not just because 3 advanced trains isn't a lot of data to extrapolate. Even if there was a planned pattern in the past, it might always change in the future. And to speculate anyway :) - what if the Maersk train was just a special exception (being Maersk), and there's a 4-year cycle planned just like for the City trains? Or what would have been a 3-year cycle that got modified due to a Maersk deal for that train? Who knows...
cdmv Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 Quite plausibly Creator trains are dropped due to poor total sales, or excessive development cost relative to sales (these are two different things). But I know no more than you do about this. Thanks for your reply. It would be sad if they've been dropped. Along with the modulars, they are the sets I look forward to the most. Let's hope that it is not true and that we'll be seeing one in Q3 2015 :-)
peterab Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 Hold on, that 3677 rumour just grew out of nowhere folks. Step back and calm down. A new LEGO train will come soon enough Actually we have two members claiming to have seen evidence of the same set number, and the name 'Heavy Haul Train' on a price list. It seems Brickset are taking it seriously too since they were looking for it at the London toy fair (no sign of it yet). There are claims of a June release as a store exclusive in the City line. I have been informed that the next Creator train will arrive in Q3 of this year. Little other information is known, but it's a reliable source at least. Then we have this. Not much to go on but it sounds like this is a different train, unless someone has gotten mixed up. Well, a Creator Expert train is bound to be an Exclusive is it not? So will it be released in november/december? Still it is strange that the HE has been retired so soon. Why would TLG want a 10 month gap without an Creator Expert train. Poor sales of the HE? If nesquik has been given correct information it will only be a 5-7 month gap, possibly not strong enough sales to devote production to another run just to fill a small gap, particularly when you have newish city trains and another on its way. 3677 really bucked a trend. Is it possible 2015 will be bringing BOTH a bonus city train AND the next Advanced (Creator/Expert) train? Not impossible, look at 2011. There is no value in trying to project release patterns in the future based on previous releases. It's just not how it works. I think this is a really defeatist statement. The best predictor of the future is the past. It's the difference between divining with chicken entrails and science. Are the predictions certain? No. Are they completely without merit? They probably have more merit than any other method short of leaked info, and since the above leaks seem to support them I'd say they might turn out to be pretty good.
MojoLego Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 For grins, here's a product release chart for trains. I've included the two rumored 2015 trains. Green: City Trains Red: Track Blue: Structures Purple: Creator Expert Yellow: Theme/Specialty
andythenorth Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 (edited) I think this is a really defeatist statement. The best predictor of the future is the past. It's the difference between divining with chicken entrails and science. Yair, no actually you've convinced me. Oh no wait. I'm wrong again. You're really going to do 'science' on a dynamic system which we absolutely know changes its behaviour, and you're going to do that on the basis of just 3 data points for the 3 released Creator Trains. Yes I do ******* love science. Anyway, copious smilies included because eh, let's all be friends. Ok here's my prediction, based on the pattern I've analysed. Having checked Brickset, from 1965 (start of available data) to 2009, TLG released no Creator Expert / Advanced trains. Then 3 between 2009 and 2013 (Emerald Night, Maersk, Horizon Express). Considering the long-term trend, only 6% of the years in the study contained a Creator Expert / Advanced train. This is probably more than just the kind of blip caused by error or anomaly, but based on the long term historical data, I'd predict zero Creator Expert / Advanced trains. In summary, the long-term behaviour of TLG, as indicated by the historical data is to not release Creator Expert / Advanced trains. The data is freely available on Brickset for those who want to play armchair science. You can easily pick holes in my findings. They're like a swiss cheese. But (if you choose to play this game), yours will be too. It's a fun game to play, but eh, there's no substance, I'd kind of wonder if you're just finding what you want to find Anyway, chicken entrails anyone? Edited January 21, 2015 by andythenorth
Inzane Posted January 21, 2015 Posted January 21, 2015 (edited) Nice work Mojo. I wonder what the logic was behind such a short run for the 7936 Level Crossing set. Andy, the Creator/Expert theme has only existed for a handful of years. Its a relatively new thing. Edited January 21, 2015 by Inzane
davidmull Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 I take it there will be more news on this at the nurenberg toy fair next week? That's normally when us technic guys get pictures etc.
Cwetqo Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 I think that they just ran out of available slots for this year's D2C sets. And I think it's because of Kwik-E-Mart and big succes of Simpsons. Emerald Night - April 2009 Maersk - April 2011 Horizon Express - January 2013 (ok, thats a bit off, but still at the beginning of the year) April 2015 - Simpsons Kwik-E-Mart Who knows...
legonerd54321 Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 Maybe I can buy the Kwik-E-Mart and turn it into a train station..?
just2good Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 Maybe the new winter village set has a placeholder name at the moment, thus the name "Winter Toy Shop" (which we've already got a toy shop before) and it's actually a winter train?
eliminator Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 I wonder if the Creator Expert trains came with track and PFs they would sell better? I'm sure more than one sale was lost due to the fact that another $150+ Would have to be spent to have it motorized and on track.
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