Chromeknight Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 By the data MojoLego supplied from brickset, There was a gap between 10219 Maersk Train and 10233 Horizon Express where no creator train was available. Given 10194 Emerald Night's long run, it's likely there was another production run since the set had sold well, meaning it was still available when 10219 debuted. Otherwise we might have expected a gap in availablity there also. So. It is not unreasonable to expect a period of time where the 10233 is no longer available but the next creator train is not yet for sale (or leaked/announced).
zephyr1934 Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 I wonder if the Creator Expert trains came with track and PFs they would sell better? I'm sure more than one sale was lost due to the fact that another $150+ Would have to be spent to have it motorized and on track. When the HE was coming out I had argued in Eurobricks that I would have preferred 8 straight rails at the expense of a few of the minifigs. You'd have twins of all of the figs after buying the requisite pair of sets and would have to purchase a lot of stuff you did not want to be able to get the HE on straight track. Given 10194 Emerald Night's long run, it's likely there was another production run since the set had sold well, meaning it was still available when 10219 debuted. Otherwise we might have expected a gap in availablity there also. I believe most lego sets have multiple production runs. They gauge the demand from the first run to plan the subsequent runs. There are a few obvious cases, e.g., the Star Wars sets that started out old gray and ended new gray and the Toy Story sets that had two different sized boxes. Other examples are the sets where the parts are updated. The EN also had a few revisions to the instructions over its span.
*thomas* Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 Wasn't there a gap between the super chief and the bnsf? I know they aren't officially creator sets, but still, I tend to see them as such.
Duq Posted January 22, 2015 Posted January 22, 2015 I wonder if the Creator Expert trains came with track and PFs they would sell better? I'm sure more than one sale was lost due to the fact that another $150+ Would have to be spent to have it motorized and on track. When the HE was coming out I had argued in Eurobricks that I would have preferred 8 straight rails at the expense of a few of the minifigs. You'd have twins of all of the figs after buying the requisite pair of sets and would have to purchase a lot of stuff you did not want to be able to get the HE on straight track. Exactly. I'm glad I didn't end up with another 2 loops of track after buying my 2 copies of HE. A lot of Creator Expert train sets are probably on a shelf as display model. Adding PF as standard would probably have lost a lot of sales because the set would have been a lot more expensive because of parts that are unnecessary for display.
peterab Posted January 23, 2015 Posted January 23, 2015 Yair, no actually you've convinced me. Oh no wait. I'm wrong again. You're really going to do 'science' on a dynamic system which we absolutely know changes its behaviour, and you're going to do that on the basis of just 3 data points for the 3 released Creator Trains. Yes I do ******* love science. Anyway, copious smilies included because eh, let's all be friends. Ok here's my prediction, based on the pattern I've analysed. Having checked Brickset, from 1965 (start of available data) to 2009, TLG released no Creator Expert / Advanced trains. Then 3 between 2009 and 2013 (Emerald Night, Maersk, Horizon Express). Considering the long-term trend, only 6% of the years in the study contained a Creator Expert / Advanced train. This is probably more than just the kind of blip caused by error or anomaly, but based on the long term historical data, I'd predict zero Creator Expert / Advanced trains. In summary, the long-term behaviour of TLG, as indicated by the historical data is to not release Creator Expert / Advanced trains. The data is freely available on Brickset for those who want to play armchair science. You can easily pick holes in my findings. They're like a swiss cheese. But (if you choose to play this game), yours will be too. It's a fun game to play, but eh, there's no substance, I'd kind of wonder if you're just finding what you want to find Anyway, chicken entrails anyone? Part of the scientific method is making predictions despite not having complete data or a validated theory to work with. Your reactions make it sound as if that is irrational, but in fact that's an engineering viewpoint which wouldn't exist without the research part of science. In fact if you never make predictions based on incomplete data, you are just using the results of science not doing science. To address your prediction, you've (obviously deliberately but ... ) chosen your dataset badly to support your hypothesis (which I see as something like 'we can't be sure so there's no point making predictions') since the whole notion of a creator/d2c/expert train didn't really exist prior to the release of Emerald Night. If we chose our hypothesis carefully as 'Creator trains are on a two year release cycle' and restrict our analysis of the past data to years in which asking the question 'Will a Creator train be released this year?' makes sense (ie ones after Creator trains existed), then we actually have six data points. My prediction based on this is that a Creator train will be released this year. Confidence level 60%, only because we have a substantiating rumour from nesquick who has had good info in the past. Note that although I've proposed a step function for releases, I'm not trying to predict it's frequency accurately (not enough data points for better than 'this year'), or suggesting there may not be an envelope function (the lifetime of creator trains, availability of D2C slots etc, demand leading to two creator trains this year - all this is outside the model). You rightly say LEGO is a dynamic system that changes it's behaviour. So is our solar system, but I bet most people do their grocery shopping for more than one meal at a time. Even chaotic systems can fall into local regular patterns, and you'll more often be right predicting based on those patterns, as long as you are willing to change once the pattern breaks. We do see seasonal release patterns in most product lines though, so it is not unreasonable to look for them in Creator. While there might be some confirmation bias in my prediction, I'm not predicting city train sets being replaced by a new Creator German steam train set every year, straight rail packs, multiple point geometries with small point motors and a complete train automation system with prototypical light signals, so my predictions are hardly what I want to find. I've often marvelled at some of your sarcasm and respect you for your scepticism but there seemed to be a logical fallacy in your proposition that you can't predict the future from past events. You seemed to imply it wasn't worth trying unless you had 100% certainty, but in fact to be better than pure randomness you only need to beat 50%. There's a lot of wiggle room between the extremes for speculation, and as long as you don't treat the predictions as certainties there may be some benefit. As long as you know how big and where the holes are you still get to eat your cheese without entrails, there is some substance, just not 100%. I certainly didn't intend to be unfriendly I just get a little obsessive about knowledge, logic, semantics and prediction sometimes. I can completely understand if the marginal pay off from speculation isn't worth it for you given that you can be 100% certain by just waiting and seeing, but it is a fun game. In fact I find it more fun getting it right the murkier the speculation gets, though I'm a long way from advocating for a pattern of clues predicting what type of train the next Creator train will be .
andythenorth Posted January 23, 2015 Posted January 23, 2015 Holes comprehensively picked So your prediction is something like? - it is more probable that TLG will release a Creator train this year than not - or (XOR) the system has changed behaviour (not sarcasm, I am not often sarcastic, usually just confused),
lightningtiger Posted January 23, 2015 Posted January 23, 2015 Oh, XOR.....gee, I haven't that term since my digital electronics studies back in the 1980's ! Can we all agree to wait and see what happens......the last thing I want to see here is people try to predict set releases using calculus and drawing complex graphs or pie charts ! (especially when I knowing about calculus ) Perhaps Lego World in a few weeks might show more than one new train......who knows ? And always remember this from Yoda....... “PATIENCE YOU MUST HAVE my young padawan”......or AFOL !
Klaus-Dieter Posted January 23, 2015 Posted January 23, 2015 :wub: :wub: :wub:The 2015 Set Numbers are Out and THERE is a Train in the CITY Line Up for 2015!!!! :wub: :wub: 60098 6-12 Heavy-Haul Train Novelty 5702015350914 June-15 Thank you very much for this news, Cyrtanthus! I'm curioues which kind of train this will be and what it'll include. For sure is - since it's going to be an exclusive City set and not an Creator Expert set - that it will be a train of nowadays. Maybe big vehicles are transported with this train. If it really was a space shuttle transport, then I for sure will skip this set. Anyway I would much more have liked to get a steam loco with tender and two train carriages - or even better a new Holiday Train (since it's now much too expensive to buy one and there is even no chance to make it PF-compatible without having to mod the loco heavily (which I don't do))! Klaus-Dieter
Darth Punk Posted January 23, 2015 Posted January 23, 2015 Maybe the new winter village set has a placeholder name at the moment, thus the name "Winter Toy Shop" (which we've already got a toy shop before) and it's actually a winter train? I was kind of hoping that but it's most likely another toy shop. I missed both so either way I'm happy.
legonerd54321 Posted January 25, 2015 Posted January 25, 2015 Did I miss-read this? Or did they just say TWO LEGO City trains? http://www.thebrickfan.com/lego-city-and-lego-mixels-summer-2015-set-rumors/
ScotNick Posted January 25, 2015 Posted January 25, 2015 Did I miss-read this? Or did they just say TWO LEGO City trains? http://www.thebrickf...015-set-rumors/ No, it just says that you can add the "heavy haul train" to your city (=town), nothing to do wit the city theme IMO.
legonerd54321 Posted January 25, 2015 Posted January 25, 2015 (edited) "information on a new LEGO City Train that will be added to the Summer lineup with the Heavy-Haul Train (60098)." That's what I'm talking about. Edited January 25, 2015 by legonerd54321
ScotNick Posted January 25, 2015 Posted January 25, 2015 "information on a new LEGO City Train that will be added to the Summer lineup with the Heavy-Haul Train (60098)." That's what I'm talking about. I know, but it doesn't say that there will be TWO new city trains, it just says, that there will be one city train and the heavy haul train. We have heard both rumors in this topic, so nothing too new.
Srbandrews Posted January 25, 2015 Posted January 25, 2015 I know, but it doesn't say that there will be TWO new city trains, it just says, that there will be one city train and the heavy haul train. We have heard both rumors in this topic, so nothing too new. I think they're only talking about one train there, albeit in a slightly misleading way. Cf "I'm will top up my pot of tea with some hot water."
andythenorth Posted January 25, 2015 Posted January 25, 2015 It's a post about one train, the Heavy Haul train. No ambiguity.
peterab Posted January 25, 2015 Posted January 25, 2015 So your prediction is something like? - it is more probable that TLG will release a Creator train this year than not - or (XOR) the system has changed behaviour There is still the possibility that cimddwc is correct and the apparent 2 year release pattern doesn't actually reflect the original planned releases, so I guess you would need to add - or the apparent pattern was a mirage That would imply there is a slight chance we will still see Creator trains in the future as long as there is no announcement from TLG that they wont be releasing any. Speculation of this kind is way more uncertain than that based on observed patters of behaviour though.
lightningtiger Posted January 25, 2015 Posted January 25, 2015 Well, we all know about the heavy haul in the city theme so talk for the other would have to be creator expert D2C correct ?
M_slug357 Posted January 25, 2015 Posted January 25, 2015 Hi all, I'm usually not the aggressive type, BUT Can we prease get back to wishful speculations of a few pages ago?? Back to the "What Could It Be!?" discussion versus "When can I's gets me one a dem?" For example: If you knew that the next train set was going to have a smaller engine, (not narrow gauge tho) What little loco would you like, and with what consist/rake? I personally would like a Class 08 shunter with various 2 axle freight cars, and maybe a guards' van...
andythenorth Posted January 25, 2015 Posted January 25, 2015 (edited) Nah, Lego wouldn't do a foamer train Limited appeal, limited sales. Edited January 25, 2015 by andythenorth
lightningtiger Posted January 25, 2015 Posted January 25, 2015 Maintenance train maybe? Well.....that's what 3677 was back in 2011 so maybe, though the term heavy haul train is still a little generalised ?
andythenorth Posted January 26, 2015 Posted January 26, 2015 (edited) It will be similar to 3677, with the engine in a different colour. This is a guess btw. Multiple previous sets have had that style of engine. Edited January 26, 2015 by andythenorth
ncx Posted January 26, 2015 Posted January 26, 2015 (edited) It will be similar to 3677, with the engine in a different colour. This is a guess btw. Multiple previous sets have had that style of engine. I don't know but I have a feeling the video that LEGO posted on their site for 2015 "Night Shift" teases the new train set. In it, they show a train chase of a robber escaping using the 60052 train except the train has box cars instead of the regular freight cars. I found this interesting because this video also shows the new Deep Sea Explorer boat at the beginning. I have a photo which I have attached of the video in question showing the boxcars. (I can't seem to embed the photo but here is the link) https://www.dropbox.com/s/do6g4lcnls6ht2x/CaptureLEGO_Boxcars1.PNG Edited January 26, 2015 by ncx
Steinkopf Posted January 26, 2015 Posted January 26, 2015 I don't know but I have a feeling the video that LEGO posted on their site for 2015 "Night Shift" teases the new train set. In it, they show a train chase of a robber escaping using the 60052 train except the train has box cars instead of the regular freight cars. I found this interesting because this video also shows the new Deep Sea Explorer boat at the beginning. I have a photo which I have attached of the video in question showing the boxcars. (I can't seem to embed the photo but here is the link) https://www.dropbox.com/s/do6g4lcnls6ht2x/CaptureLEGO_Boxcars1.PNG The boxcar in question is actually the one that was in the very last 9v Freight Train set ever to be produced, set 4512 from the World City theme.
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