Fugazi

Simon wasn't killed last night. Doesn't mean that he's bulletproof forever, and your being a stump doesn't mean he needs to tell you the whole truth. Especially if he's actually SK. That should be interesting. You just said that SK cannot win with scum. If they lynch the Oak, won't they lose?

If true, then Lassie is scum and Simon is SK. Bulletproof SK? I guess it's possible. Let's make this easy. I will vote Lassie, because Simon can't be scum. Simon knows that if he's SK, there's a chance both Lassie and I are town. He knows he will win by lyching either one of us. If he really wants to take a chance, he can also vote for himself and let everyone live. I don't advise this anymore, as we don't know for sure there's no scum left. On the other hand, if he's simple Oak he needs to lynch. There can be at most one scum and certainly one SK, so he will have to choose and lynch the right tree. Vote: Lassie Sassafras (fhomess)

Wow, this is so much fun! Okay, let's recap. Before the start of the day I was informed that Maple Sue was dead, and I assumed that Adelaide flipped Oak (because I wasn't told anything about her). I shared this information with Simon and Lassie because I mistakingly believed that everyone would be given the same information regardless of their allegiance. It doesn't really matter, because people can lie about what they are told. But since I was being told about only one kill, I asked the others ot think whether they ha the means to block the scum kill. If they had no way (say by blocking, protecting, redirecting actions) it meant that scum didn't attempt to kill last night, and therefore that there wasn't any left. If there was no scum, we could simply refrain from lynching and let the SK win with town. That was before Day 8 was posted, so before we learned that someone attempted to kill Simon. It does change everything, because there might still be two killers in the forest, one that killed Sue and another who tried on Simon. Since it would appear that the vig is dead, only the SK could have killed Sue. That leaves two options: Simon was targeted by Sue, or by another scum. In either case, Simon can't be the last scum. That's a good thing, because with Lassie's vote we can't lynch Simon anymore. So from my perspective Lassie can be scum (even though Day 8 might have ended with Adelaide's lynch), SK or Oak. Simon can be SK or Oak. Lassie and Simon can't both be Oak or we wouldn't be here. Lassie doesn't have to be scum -- maybe the purpose of the day is to determine if the SK wins along with town. There has to be a serial killer. Apparently the vig is dead, and why would anyone lie about it now? The stumped vig can tell us if need be. And if the vig is dead, who killed Sue? There must be a serial killer. I find it suspicious that while you've probably been given the same information the rest of us have, you still choose to interpret it in a twisted way. Why do you think the SK's win condition supercedes the Oaks? So you're saying that SK wins with one Oak left, but not with two? No, I wasn't told that Adelaide was town, it was my assumption based on the other information I was given. Which is why I said "probably Town" in my PM. The not voting bit made sense when I thought there had been only one kill and is why I asked you about possible blockers/protectors/etc. Given that I believed SK could win with town, it made sense not to vote. Now that we've seen two kills/kill attempts, there's no guarantee there's no scum left, and unless we have proof that Lassie is not scum we should probably lynch. I kind of thought there couldn't be two scum at the end of Day 7 but I'm not so sure anymore. After Adelaide's lynch it might have been fair to let scum win, but with the SK wildcard I can see how Alder might have waited until after the night actions to decide. Again, you seem to be disregarding the information you were given. I agree the scenario with two Oaks and the SK is a bit hard to believe, but if there's a scum here today it's you, not me. If I look scummy, I'm a victim of circumstances just like Berty. I'm not sure about not voting anymore. Let me think this through. If Lassie is scum, Simon must be SK: from Lassie's perspective, she can win by lynching me or taking her chances tonight. She then kills me and hopes that Simon also targets me. But if Simon targets Lassie, town wins. If Lassie is SK and Simon is Oak: from Lassie's perspective, she can win by lynching me or she can kill me tonight and win along with Simon. However if there's no lynch she might be afraid that I can kill her tonight. In which case only town wins (Simon). Not quite, since there's still the SK. If SK and scum target each other, town wins. If there's no scum left, they don't need to kill. But yeah, I guess they'd be better off by killing. Thay much is true. I'm not the SK. And I wasn't told that Adelaide is Oak. The SK should know they don't need to kill anyone but the scum. If Lassie is SK, we don't need to lynch her because the town has already won. It doesn't actually matter if she kills one of us at night. On the other hand, if she's scum she needs to go. Yeah, if Lassie is scum she can make sure to win by lynching me, or she can chance it out tonight. But if I'm the SK I know I shouldn't kill Simon. However if Simon is the SK he might decide to kill me tonight, in which case scum wins -- and SK too, I suppose. Uh? Ah I see your point, even if Sue was killed at least one scum kill must have registered... or be blocked. It doesn't mean there can't be a scum left. Scum kills Town, SK kills Town, no one wins? I would think scum wins, and possibly SK too. Either way, you are correct that going to night actions is not an option if there's a scum among us. Why? It's obvious there's a non-scum killer left, what difference does it make if it's a SK or Vig?

Yeah, I can't imagine Simon being a Bulletproof scum. But there's at least one non-Oak left, so is the real vig dead? If Simon is bulletproof, there's no way the SK can win.

This kind of supports the idea that Town can win with the SK... isn't it always the case? Nowhere in the rules does it say that Oaks need to lynch the neutrals in order to win. Anyway, if you're concerned about that, lynch me. I'm Oak, but if there's no Maple the Oaks should still win, right?

Let's hear from Lassie. There was more info given to me but I need to check if I can share it. I thought all three of us had a similar PM.

That's one possibility. Or that Sue tried to kill you and SK killed her, as was mentioned.

Well it's interesting that Simon didn't receive the same information I have. I had no qualms revealing it, as we are allowed to reveal night results and this was presented to me as a night result -- even though I have no action. Of course, if Simon is the SK or scum he would already know that Sue was dead. But I agree that it's unlikely there's still a scum alive.

But what did you say about Lassie? What's the link between the naive investigator and Lassie?

What? I don't follow. I don't mind if the SK wins... but I need to make sure there's no scum left. If it's not Bob attempting to kill Simon, what happened to the scum kill? That could do. But the way Alder presents it, Sue was dead when someone approached Simon... or is the order irrelevant?

Oh? Sue was scum yet there's no scum kill. Was it the scum trying to kill Simon? Could have been the SK too... if he Vig abstained.

Well it doesn't change the basic equation: Simon is likely Oak, I know I'm Oak, Lassie is trusted most likely because she has a verifiable claim. That leaves Adelaide and Sue, one of them is the SK and the other is Maple, unless Maples have two killers and there is no SK. Between the two I think Adelaide is more likely Maple than SK, so that's where my vote stands. Perhaps the SK claim was a sting, perhaps it was an actual call for help disguised as a sting, we'll see tomorrow. I expect stings all the time, and you know it. Bah, you would have used anything to support your case against me anyway. There's no way to win this. Good idea. Fingers crossed.

I did mention that both may have been naive, or only the other one, but what flavor the other one (Clem) was is inconsequential now since all the players he investigated are dead. But since everybody thinks I'm a scum who evaded Waldorf's investigation, I had to explore the idea. What timing? Are you real? At this point, I'm certainly concerned about my own skin because the game it at stake. If we lynch an Oak today we will probably all be dead tomorrow. We don't have the luxury of sacrificing me in order to test your paranoid suspicions.

"Unfortunately" and "only" because as I had mentioned before, lynching the SK is not good enough. You don't understand my position. In order to avoid the lynch, she obviously needed more than my unvote. She had to convince someone else to unvote as well. What is the best way to achieve that? Find a way to incriminate me and have the whole town switch their votes. Had I shown too much interest in her scheme, I'm sure she wouldn't have hesitated to go public with it. She didn't need my unvote, she needed all of yours. Adelaide did mention she might be able to make Simon switch, and if I had changed my vote I'm pretty sure how that would have been perceived by the rest of the forest. Anyone can make up winning conditions, and if Adelaide says she wins if she's among the last three players standing and that she can win alongside town or scum doesn't mean it's true. If you want lies, go and ask Adelaide. I think it's obvious enough why I came out with the information. It isn't up to me to drill Adelaide for details and decide whether she's saying the truth. I gave you my opinion, the rest is up to you. For some reason the stumps seem to think that Sue is the SK, so they might be able to figure out who's the real SK between her and Adelaide.

Oh yes she gave some details... but you're so aggravating that you don't deserve to know more. It wouldn't change anything to your tunnel vision. I hope that Adelaide is the last scum, because .

She potatoed the wrong Oak, there was nothing in her offer for me. Who knows, maybe she actually believed that I was the last scum standing? In that case, I'll just forward the message to Sue.

No, I want you to think that it's very unlikely that he was naive, unlikely that I am the Godfather and unlikely that I was framed on that precise night. And what are you going to do about Adelaide's new claim?

But from a Maple perspective, it would have made more sense to kill the means to verify a naive investigator (the miller), rather than the investigator himself. A naive investigator that can't be verified is more valuable to scum alive. So had I been scum I would have had Berty killed, not Waldorf. Kinda proves that scum didn't know what kind of investigator they were killing. Your face is a SUXT.

Why would a scum that's just been cleared by a naive investigator insist that said investigator should be verified? And suggest the means to do it? If I knew who the investigator was, and meant to kill them the following night, then there was no need for me to raise flags about their possible naivety. It just doesn't add up, but sometimes scumminess is in the eye of the beholder.

Well I certainly hope that there's only one Maple left and that it's Adelaide, because I get the feeling that Simon will attempt to have me vig-killed tonight. Unfortunately, Adelaide just privately tried to make me switch my vote, claiming that she's only the SK. She might actually be the SK, in which case if she's lynched and I'm vig-killed the remaining scum will have their victory served on a silver platter. I'm more of the opinion that she's scum trying to wriggle their way out of this lynch by any possible means. Picture this: she's scum claiming SK, asks for my help pretending to think I'm scum, knowing well that I'm Oak and will go public with her message. However, that could seed enough doubt into everyone's mind that she might actually be the SK, therefore making us switch votes. Well I don't believe she's actually the SK, but it's up to all of you to decide.

You were working under the assumption that your investigators were verified and now that I reminded you that they weren't you think that I am scum? Haha. Besides, I thought you agreed that Waldorf was killed by the SK while the scum killer was busy elsewhere.

From my point of view, there's not other reason not to consider her but the apparent stump support. That part is where it appears to me that Adelaide is reaching way beyond what a regular Oak would know/understand about Maple strategy. It sounds worryingly accurate.

Sorry again for being absent for most of the day. Interesting setup. With only 5 trees left, and a serious hunch that the SK is still alive, I must wonder if there can be two scum alive. Like Simon mentioned, out of the four janitored trees, two are most likely Maples, one is probably Oak, and Alastair... well back on Day Two when most of us thought there was a janitor, my read on Alastair was town. Then I changed my mind when Maples made it appear like only Oaks were being stumped. What happened on Day 1? Alastair cast the first vote for Hazel, then changed his mind and unvoted. While many (now proven Oak) votes piled up on Alastair, Peter and Jack both voted Hazel. Given that the scum knew they would janitor the lynch, it appears weird for them not to follow the bandwagon. Unless they were still hoping to turn the bandwagon around somehow, because Alasdair was actually Maple. The other known scum, Barry, kept his vote on Catarina until he switched to hammer Alastair. That said, my opinion is that there is one Maple left, plus the SK. However we can't completely dismiss the other option (two Maples, one SK and two Oaks) because it's not clear what constitutes an appropriate balance for the stumps. If a team of five scum have powerful night actions including a multiple-shot janitor, then perhaps the balance is good. Six scum out of 25 players seem like a lot, but may also be balanced considering the stump factor. Anyway, I'm inclined to believe the former. In which case, it's a tossup between Adelaide and Sue for Maple. I'm not sure why Lassie isn't being brought forward as a potential suspect, but I suppose that Simon and/or the stumps know more than I do in this case. Not sure what would be the proper response for a scum in this case, vote or not vote? No vote I suppose... Also, I don't think a scum would have hammered his fellow scum if they were the last two left in their team. I do think there's a good chance the scum leader is immune to investigations, but do consider that there are three or perhaps four Maples dead already. What are the chances of the Godfather being alive today? I still think that one (or even both) must have been naive, because two legit investigators plus the stumps doesn't equal the janitor. So yeah, I may have been investigated by a naive investigator. You too, so you could well be the SK. See, our investigator (Waldorf) was killed the very night you were supposed to verify him (using Berty as a target) so we will never know. Not saying that the SK killed Waldorf, but only that we can't know for sure that Waldorf was legit. I don't mind either way, because Simon has been playing for town so he can't be a Maple. The theory was very compelling -- four janitored trees, four sizes. Back then the general opinion (not only mine, yours too) was that there wasn't a janitor but that all missing trees were non-Oak. And because it was pure metagaming and something that used to be frowned upon back when I used to play more often, I did what we always used to do -- get a second opinion privately. It would appear that my theory was wrong, with Jack and Barry both being trees of the same size, but it doesn't mean it was intended to deceive. I don't remember Alder playing that many games even though he played quite well. You are probably right, perhaps too much so. This sounds so right on that it makes me feel like you have some insight in the thought process behind Peter's janitoring. Perhaps even the first three days. This sounds like a good strategy when you have a janitor. It's interesting they stopped on day 4 when you started suspecting Jack. Well if Adelaide was Oak wouldn't she have brought that up in her defense? I don't remember her doing that. Sorry, but it's the opposite: scum knew they had a janitor and therefore that the action could be blocked, or that they would need to janitor one of their own instead. They wouldn't have been as confident as I was. Well, if both of them were scum they would totally be jumping at your suspicion of me. As there likely is only one Maple left, they're jumping at the most scummy target and that isn't me. Do you think that I would try to steer the vote away from Jack yet vote for him in the same post? If I was going to bus a fellow scum, I wouldn't do it half-way. Perhaps, though so far we've always managed to reach a consensus and lynch. I remind you that I have been suspicious of Adelaide and Sue for a long time due to suspicious voting patterns. My theories are out there for anyone to read. Also, I was around during Day 6 so I could have switched my vote at any time. Vote: Adelaide Apple (TinyPiesRUS)

Sorry for the absence, I had friends over at the tree-house this week-end. I will catch up on the discussion tonight.

If there are 2 Maples left and one SK, then we are 5 Oaks. Lynching an Oak can lose us the game, if scum and SK kill Oaks successfully and the vig doesn't kill a Maple. I don't think this is our last day, but we might be very unlucky. Taking the SK out is a good option, unless they want to step in the open and collaborate with town? Assuming that's even possible for them.